A Summary of the US Economy through Corporate Finance
1 like•194 views
The Calcbench report for Q3 2015 highlights a 6.25% year-over-year decline in corporate revenues, primarily attributed to significant drops in the petroleum sector. Capital expenditures fell by 9% but small firms saw a slight increase of 2.1%, while operating expenses rose by 7.7%. Despite the overall downturn, top firms controlled a growing percentage of U.S. revenue, indicating ongoing consolidation in the market.
A Summary of the US Economy through Corporate Finance
- 1. Macro through (Corporate) Micro Third Quarter 2015 Technology enables access to data in ways that were not possible prior. Calcbench is designed to help finance leaders collect and analyze hard to find competitor, customer, and supplier financial data in near real time to help them make more informed decisions. What can our data tell you about the greater US economic engine and associated trends? Below is a chart that shows a very small sample of metrics that Calcbench maintains. The bars represent Year over Year aggregate changes in Revenues, Capital Expenditures, Cost Of Revenue (aka Cost of Goods Sold), SG&A, Operating Expenses, Dividends paid to shareholders and Cash.1,2 Please note all data is based on Calendar Quarters, NOT Fiscal Quarters. Fiscal quarters provided upon request 1 1. Over 3500 firms in sample. Financial firms excluded. Calcbench to publish financials services report (forthcoming) 2. Calcbench DB normalizes over 300+ metrics. These are 11 of the more commonly used. -40.00% -30.00% -20.00% -10.00% 0.00% 10.00% 20.00% 3rd Quarter 2015 Year over Year Change by Metric
- 2. App. Mat, (9%) AMD (4%) Revenue Drop Revenues at the corporate level are down by 6.25% year over year. In dollar terms, that reflects over $180 billion dollars in sales that did not happen in Q3 2015 as opposed to Q3 2014. Why? Let’s start with the commodities complex, specifically energy and more specifically oil. Close to 90% of the drop in sales is from 3 industry groups. Petroleum Refining, Crude Petroleum and Natural Gas. Petroleum Refiners, were the biggest contributors and shown in the table below contributing to more than 50% of the total drop! (Note : All values in $ mm): 2 1 Calcbench uses “net” capex. Small firms increase is over lower base. Please note all data is based on Calendar Quarters, NOT Fiscal Quarters. Fiscal quarters provided upon request Revenue PY_Revenue Rev Diff Exxon Mobil Corp 65,679.00$ 103,566.00$ 37,887.00-$ Chevron Corp 32,767.00$ 51,822.00$ 19,055.00-$ Phillips 66 25,792.00$ 40,417.00$ 14,625.00-$ Valero Energy Corp/TX 22,579.00$ 34,408.00$ 11,829.00-$ Marathon Petroleum Corp 18,716.00$ 25,438.00$ 6,722.00-$ Conocophillips 7,262.00$ 12,080.00$ 4,818.00-$ Total 172,795.00$ 267,731.00$ 94,936.00-$
- 3. Top 50 companies control 39.3% of all US Revenue in Q3 2015 versus 38.9% of all US Revenue in Q3 2015!* 3Please note all data is based on Calendar Quarters, NOT Fiscal Quarters. Fiscal quarters provided upon request Top 50 Revenue Firms with % of Revenue Top 50 Firms % Revenue The Rest *At time of publication, Wal-Mart had not published it’s revenue in the form of a 10-Q. WMT was not included in prior years results either. Exxon Mobil Corp 2.4% Johnson & Johnson 0.6% Apple Inc 1.9% Archer Daniels Midland Co 0.6% Mckesson Corp 1.8% PROCTER & GAMBLE Co 0.6% At&T Inc. 1.4% Pepsico Inc 0.6% General Motors Co 1.4% Intel Corp 0.5% CVS HEALTH Corp 1.4% United Parcel Service Inc 0.5% Ford Motor Co 1.4% United Technologies Corp 0.5% Costco Wholesale Corp 1.3% Cisco Systems, Inc. 0.5% Verizon Communications Inc 1.2% Sysco Corp 0.5% Chevron Corp 1.2% Fedex Corp 0.4% General Electric Co 1.2% Pfizer Inc 0.4% Walgreens Boots Alliance, Inc. 1.0% Dow Chemical Co /DE/ 0.4% Cardinal Health Inc 1.0% Lockheed Martin Corp 0.4% Boeing Co 0.9% Coca Cola Co 0.4% Phillips 66 0.9% Delta Air Lines Inc /DE/ 0.4% Amazon Com Inc 0.9% Caterpillar Inc 0.4% Express Scripts Holding Co. 0.9% Bunge LTD 0.4% Valero Energy Corp/TX 0.8% American Airlines Group Inc. 0.4% Fca Us Llc 0.8% Energy Transfer Equity, L.P. 0.4% Microsoft Corp 0.7% Ingram Micro Inc 0.4% Philip Morris Intl Inc. 0.7% Tyson Foods Inc 0.4% IBM 0.7% United Continental Holdings 0.4% Marathon Petroleum Corp 0.7% Merck & Co., Inc. 0.4% Google Inc. 0.7% HCA Holdings, Inc. 0.4% Comcast Corp 0.7% Honeywell International Inc 0.3%
- 4. App. Mat, (9%) AMD (4%) Capital Expenditures may serve as an indicator of the confidence of a firm. When taken as an aggregate, the confidence level of industry becomes apparent. In Q3 2015 CAPEX shrunk by 9% over Q3 2014. The trend holds across firm sizes as large and midsize firms are spending less year over year. A silver lining is in the small space (third quartile) with a 2.1% increase. 4 1 Calcbench uses “net” capex. Please note all data is based on Calendar Quarters, NOT Fiscal Quarters. Fiscal quarters provided upon request $185,000 $190,000 $195,000 $200,000 $205,000 $210,000 $215,000 $220,000 $225,000 Q3 2014 Q3 2015 Capex ($ MM) Large Mid Small Micro Q3 2014 $206,223,723,221 $12,140,737,197 $1,289,512,519 $46,825,982 Q3 2015 $187,217,517,994 $11,100,609,364 $1,316,932,927 $45,727,058 Pct Chg. -9.2% -8.6% 2.1% -2.3% -10.0% -8.0% -6.0% -4.0% -2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% $- $50,000,000,000 $100,000,000,000 $150,000,000,000 $200,000,000,000 $250,000,000,000 YoY Capital Expenditures By Firm Size Q3 2014 Q3 2015 Pct Chg. Capital Expenditures
- 5. Average cash on the balance sheet is down by 2.5% YoY. The chart below is aggregated by Sector (based on 2 digit SIC Code). But some sectors (e.g. Misc Retail) have increased their cash holdings. 5Please note all data is based on Calendar Quarters, NOT Fiscal Quarters. Fiscal quarters provided upon request Increased CashDecreased Cash -0.5 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 YoY % Change in Cash Change in Cash Cash Pct Change YoY Automative Dealers & Service Stations -23% Printing & Publishing -24% Communications -29% Paper & Allied Products -34% Coal Mining -42% Cash Pct Change YoY Miscellaneous Retail 45% Nonmetallic Minerals, Except Fuels 28% Wholesale Trade - Nondurable Goods 26% Motion Pictures 25% Water Transportation 20%
- 6. 6 Please note all data is based on Calendar Quarters, NOT Fiscal Quarters. Fiscal quarters provided upon request Operating Expenses Overall, Operating Expenses grew 7.7% Year over Year and SG&A expenses were up 7.7% but Costs of Revenues were down by 7.45%, indicating tighter input cost controls in the large firms. Large Mid Small Micro Q3 2014 $658,735,643,70 $59,462,948,858 $11,798,154,323 $1,044,837,195 Q3 2015 $707,647,382,84 $65,756,860,665 $12,782,973,841 $890,590,142 Pct Chg. 7.4% 10.6% 8.3% -14.8% -20.0% -15.0% -10.0% -5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% $- $200,000,000,000 $400,000,000,000 $600,000,000,000 $800,000,000,000 YoY Operating Expenses By Firm Size Q3 2014 Q3 2015 Pct Chg. Large Mid Small Micro Q3 2014 $355,601,316,54 $37,928,525,580 $7,182,049,983 $758,241,196 Q3 2015 $363,523,685,92 $40,493,486,550 $7,712,932,376 $643,130,307 Pct Chg. 2.2% 6.8% 7.4% -15.2% -20.0% -15.0% -10.0% -5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% $- $100,000,000,000 $200,000,000,000 $300,000,000,000 $400,000,000,000 YoY SG&A By Firm Size Q3 2014 Q3 2015 Pct Chg. Large Mid Small Micro Q3 2014 $1,677,789,847 $140,010,023,1 $14,323,783,31 $533,780,982 Q3 2015 $1,538,272,140 $143,607,610,6 $13,594,697,73 $572,914,536 Pct Chg. -8.3% 2.6% -5.1% 7.3% -10.0% -5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% $- $500,000,000,000 $1,000,000,000,000 $1,500,000,000,000 $2,000,000,000,000 YoY Cost of Revenue By Firm Size Q3 2014 Q3 2015 Pct Chg.
- 7. Try Calcbench Today! ABOUT THIS REPORT: This report was created using data analyzed via Calcbench’s Premium Suite, an online interactive platform that helps finance leaders access and analyze financial data thoroughly and efficiently. Our accessible and intuitive platform can aid in better understanding competitor financials, identifying potential risk areas, analyzing trends across industry sectors, or conducting more effective due diligence. Sign up for a 2 week free trial at www.calcbench.com/trial or contact us at [email protected] or via www.calcbench.com CALCBENCH PREMIUM SUITE 7Please note all data is based on Calendar Quarters, NOT Fiscal Quarters. Fiscal quarters provided upon request