Africa trends 2012

Editor's Notes

• #10: The AU is determined to break with past tolerance for authoritarian rule-since it was founded in 2002Kenya:UpcomingElectionsEthnic violenceThe AU is determined to break with past tolerance for authoritarian rule-since it was founded in 2002 AngolaInspired in part by the Arab Spring there has been a spate of small anti government demonstrations, will propel labeling Dos Santos a dictator and calling him to step down.Such protests where unheard of in a country when both state and private media is heavily controlled and critical voices are usually bought off or suppressed by force.Problems in the management of the electoral process exacerbated tension as the regime and opposition headed toward the elections.Nigeriahttp://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=fAhajsW1DtI#!Nigeria has been faced with two major crises in recent weeks: on the one hand, a general strike in response to a removal of the fuel subsidy on 1 January by President Goodluck Jonathan which led to a doubling of petrol prices. On the other hand, an upsurge in bomb attacks by the extreme Islamist group Boko Haram, which killed 80 people between Christmas and New Year.
• #11: Only 0.38%of adults have a tertiary education in sub-Saharan AfricaKenya leads the continent with 2%, against a global average of 3.94% Est. university dropout rate across Africa is estimated at 50%In South Africa, the pass rate of engineering students is 12.5%, compared to the international average of 25%.
• #12: China is all over Africa--with its massive aid packages, loans, investments, and thousands of Chinese construction workers. But Brazil is set on making its mark, too, and it's hiring locally to get on the good side of Africans who want jobs and whose resentment toward the Chinese is reportedly increasing.China's presence in Africa is suspect--while often in the name of aid, its rather sweeping investment and interest in the continent's vast natural resources is clear, as Fast Company detailed in an extensive series on China in Africa. Not surprisingly, relationships with locals are strained--Chinese workers are more often than not the ones gaining employment from Chinese contracts in Africa and tensions have exploded in some instances, leading to shootings and other stand-offs. And all of this makes it easier for Brazil to enter, as the country can learn from China's mistakes. A railway in Liberia, for example, is being renovated in the hopes of boosting the country's economy, which has largely been stagnant due to decades of civil war. The Brazilian engineering firm, Odebrecht, hired locals to get the job done and have found smooth, successful relations as a result. "It worked perfectly," project manager Pedro Paulo Tosca told Reuters. "The majority of the heavy work was activities that we could perform with local manpower instead of bringing sophisticated equipment to the site." The United Nations and other international agencies are catching on to the trend--if the world's emerging BRIC giants want a piece of Africa, they've got to do it peacefully and respectfully, which often means providing training and jobs along the way. "If (Brazil) wants to distinguish itself from the other emerging powers, it needs to demonstrate what is different about its engagement with Africa based on the principles it espouses as a democratic country," said Sanusha Naidu, China/Emerging Powers in Africa Program's research director at the Cape Town-based human rights organization Fahamu. "It will also have to reconcile its economic ambitions in Africa with its posture of being a democracy, especially in cases where it does business with essentially corrupt and malevolent regimes in Africa." With South Africa now set to join the BRIC group, China and Brazil will have an African peer at the BRIC summits and meetings, making their moves ever more visible to the continent, and forcing, out of necessity, a more socially responsible way forward for BRIC investors in Africa. 
• #14: Barring a serious deterioration in the global economy, the outlook for the region seems bright, with a pickup in GDP growth to 5.3 percent in 2012 and 5.6 percent in 2013.  High commodity prices and strong domestic demand, especially buoyant private consumption, are expected to sustain the expansion. Growth has been widespread, with over a third of SSA countries posting 6% or higher rates.Economic performance continued to be supported by higher commodity prices and exports and buoyant consumption.Risks on the downside loom large, however. A sharper GDP contraction in the Euro Area from -0.3% (Baseline Scenario) to -2%, would reduce Africa's growth rate by 1.3 percentage points.Stagnation in the US and Europe will affect Africa, we estimate that a 1% drop in GDP growth translating into something close to 0,5%decrease in African export earnings.Europe is Africa's largest trading partner, this will see a rise in inflation, double digit inflation across east Africa
• #15: Commodity prices and trade are the main channels through which shocks would be transmitted to African countries.Under a crisis scenario, oil exporters and mineral exporters would be particularly hard hit.High and volatile local food prices are also a source of vulnerability. Global food prices appear to have stabilized, but local trends vary reflecting local conditions.Despite solid growth in 2011, many SSA countries are entering 2012 with less fiscal and monetary policy space.Elevated oil prices have helped strengthen the current account balances of oil exporting countries, and some of these countries have re-built reserves. However, close to half of the non-oil rich countries are seeing larger current account deficits.Higher fiscal deficits, inflation, and debt levels (than in 2008-09)means it would be harder for African countries to use similar policy options used during the 2008 global financial crisis if they face a similar challenge in the near future.
• #16: But these factors also point to Africa’s vulnerability.  Most African countries are dependent on two or three primary commodities for their export revenues (see figure).  Those that export consumer goods, such as Mauritius, Seychelles and Cape Verde, sell 70-90 percent to the European Union. A sharp contraction in Europe, therefore, would pull down global demand, significantly depressing commodity prices and trade and lowering growth rates in Africa. Moreover, with many African countries entering 2012 with less fiscal and monetary policy space than in 2008-09, it will be harder for these countries to respond to global shocks as they did in the wake of the 2008 global financial crisis.  Finally, parts of Africa remain susceptible to food price shocks—the Horn of Africa last year, possibly the Sahelian countries of Mali, Niger, Chad and Mauritania this year.Oil exporting countries benefited the most from higher prices, with improved terms of trade contributing to an equivalent of 8.5% to GDP.
• #17: SSA GDP growth in 2011 was widespread and higher than in other development regions.At an estimated 4.9%, it is just shy of the pre-crisis (2003-08) level of 5%. But risks loom large. A sharper GDP contraction in the Euro Area from -0.3% (Baseline Scenario) to -2%, would reduce Africa's growth by 1.3%.Source: Global Economic Prospects 2012.
• #18: GDP growth before and after 2008 global financial crisis in selected SSA countries.Ten SSA countries grew more than 6% in 2010-11, many of them are exporters of oil or minerals. Non-resource-rich countries had high growth but it remained below 2007-08 levels.Source: Development Prospects Group, World Bank.
• #19: Oil, metal, and mineral exporters in SSA benefitted from higher prices in the first half of 2011. Agricultural exporters saw their terms of trade deteriorate.Commodity prices fell off their highs in the second half of 2011, in part because of weakening economic growth. After peaking at $120/bbl (World Bank average) in April, the price of oil averaged $100/bbl in the last quarter of 2011.Source: Global Economic Prospects 2012.
• #20: Although SSA countries have diversified their trading partners due to an increase in trade with emerging markets, there is little diversification of exports.This chart shows the median share of the largest 3 commodities in total exports in SSA countries.Sources: COMTRADE and staff calculation based on SITC3 classification 4-digit subgroups
• #21: Despite solid growth in 2011, many SSA countries are entering 2012 with less fiscal and monetary policy space.This chart shows fiscal balances as a percent of GDP in selected SSA countriesSource: IMF WEO database and staff calculation.
• #22: Higher fiscal deficits and debt means it would be harder for SAA countries to use similar policy options used during the 2008 global financial crisis if they face a similar challenge in the near future.This chart shows the external debt burden in selected SSA countries.Source: IMF WEO database and staff calculation.
• #23: Expected to increase from the current 1 billion to 2 billion by 2050.Africa will have more young people than any other place in the world.Sub-Saharan Africa's private consumption has grown by 152% in the past decade –the third-fastest only behind China support to local firms inspires foreign investment
• #24: With a total area of over 30.3 million square kilometers, Africa has more than enough space to accommodate the geographical areas of China, India, US, Western Europe, and Argentina combined – whose total areas is about 29.9million square kilometers. Meanwhile, Africa’s present population is less than half the 3.6 billion people in China, India, US, Argentina, and Western Europe combined. In essence, it is counter-intuitive to regard Africa as overpopulated when other regions that have more than twice Africa’s population within a smaller area are not considered overpopulated.
• #25: However, while there is an absolute advantage of having a younger population and youthful workforce, there is a risk of social instability if the disgruntled youth feel left out of the economic boom. The working age is a positive dynamic for Africa, but unless the youth have jobs and social betterment is achievedAfrica could reap enormous demographic dividends from its young and fast growing population if over the next decade leaders on the continent embrace good governance and implement adequate social policies targeting improvement in education, health care, infrastructure, and women empowerment. Some analysts have expressed concern over Africa’s population trend, claiming that the continent is overpopulated. They are, understandably, concerned about the strains of Africa’s population on the environment and natural resources. They caution against the effects of overpopulation on poverty reduction effort and on the continent’s overall capacity to sustain its people. But Africa’s population dynamic must be put in simplified statistical perspective in relation to other regions of the world in order to answer questions about sustainability, poverty and overpopulation.
• #26: One of major factors set to swell the youth population is urbanization - people living rural areas and flocking to urban areas to look for work and better living conditions.Africa is the world's fastest urbanized continent, with mega-cities and mega-regions such as Lagos, Kinshasa and Cairo flourishing. Kinshasa, DRC capital city, is currently the continent's fastest urbanized city. According to the UN Habitat and Standard Bank Research, two to three Africans (60% of the population) will to live in cities by 2050.
• #27: almost 60 million households in Africa were classified as middle class.This number is expected to increase to over 100 million by the end of 2014.Africa's positive demographics are creating many opportunities .
• #28: Estimated 17-million Nigerians (3.5-million in USA and UK alone). There are currently over 300 000 highly qualified Africans in the diaspora, 30 000 of whom have PhDs, according to UNESCO. This implies a significant impact on each country's development.
• #29: Africa is witnessing increase in investments insectors :Food and BeveragesAgriculture
• #30: The rise in consumption has followed national trade increases across the sub-Saharan regions
• #31: increased demand for its productsincrease production capacity. A total of US$260 million.Till date invested approximately US$1.5 billion across various project in Africa.
• #32: Investing US$11.03 million- Packaging center in Luanda, Angola. Nido milk powder Nescafé coffeeThe center is a part of the US$165.5 million 3 year investment program of Nestlé.
• #33: Food processing and storage companies across Africa, through its million (US$203.8 million) private equity fund.Agriculture LandInfrastructureFood companies Nigeria Ghana Ethiopia Kenya EgyptThe fund will start with investments in biscuit and water companies.
• #34: Expand (KFC) – 7 more countries across Africa in 2012. Stores being built in Angola and Malawi Outlets to be added in:Tanzania Uganda Zimbabwe DRC Madagascar.This follows the opening of its KFC restaurants in Zambia, Ghana and Kenya in 2011.
• #35: retailing, baking and food processing. For the year ended June 30the diversified conglomerate recorded revenues of US$516.14 million while operating profit stood at US$47.66 million - pointing to an after tax profit of US$41.33 million.Innscor opened a "number of new complexes" MasvingoChinhoyiBeitbridgeKwekwewhile in Harare, the company opened two new counters, all under Nando's and Chicken Inn franchises mainlyThe group's organic growth has seen it strengthening its control of the value chain especially with regard to the FMCG (Fast Moving Consumer Goods) business and this is likely to impact positively on margins
• #36: Unemployment runs at around 20%acccording to the world bank. Economic status in Europe and north America and the slowing down of Asia's super charged growth rates will make Africa's economy tasks harder still in 2012
• #37: Kenya's retail sector has been growing steadily in the last decade with major retail outlets being:Uchumi (a publicly listed company)NakumattTuskysUkwalaNaivasThe main differentiators for the outlets include: price, location, ambience, product range, and service. According to Vision 2030 (Kenya's economic blue print), the government of Kenya aims to increase efficiency in the country's retail sector and raise the market share of products sold through formal channels to 30% by 2012Kenya has a growing middle class is a factor that has seen the growth of the country's retail sector. access to more media and information, they have become more discerning and knowledgeable. middle class shoppers want flexible shopping hours - which has seen an increase of 24 hour shopping outlets, they (shoppers) want a wide variety of products to choose from, a good shopping location and convenience.
• #38: Angolas more positive recent economic trends include its moves towards economic diversification,its engagement with the IMF through standby arrangement of $1.4bn resulting in more transparency within the government financial system,and its new laws to promote macroeconomic stabilityAs a result of its oil revenues government entered the month of October within $23bn in foreign reserves-inferstructure,roads,bridges,railways,schools,hospitals,airports and housing estates.Agri businesses such as fruit canning and breakfast-cereal production,are growing in number and profitability.Economic growth forecast to return to double digits in 2012.Brazil-pavementsChina 3,5bn-housing project of 16000 apartments
• #39: Benefiting from rising passenger numbershttp://www.openafrica.org/blog/entry/Africa-well-poised-for-sustainable-travel-trend
• #41: Inflation is expected to breach the 20% mark in 2012.Leaving consumers with less disposable income for airtime clothing and beerThe IMF points to worrying inflation rates in Kenya and Uganda, caused by a combination of drought –induced food shortages and heightened global food and fuel prices the report warns that this trend could damage the high economic growth of the region.
• #42: Regarding the unlocking of abundant resources, Freemantle declared that while Africa is known for its dominant share in a number of core commodities, such as platinum, chrome, cobalt and oil, which are in great demand, agriculture is also expected to feature prominently as a key driving force in the continent's resurgenceBetween Overpopulation and Sustainability Africa has only 15% of global population but possesses 60% of the world’s uncultivated arable land. The continent holds 20% of the world’s natural resources. If Africa’s area alone can accommodate China, India, US, Western Europe, and Argentina, whose combined 3.6 billion population is more than half the world population, then the continent should be able to sustain a population that would be about 2.1 billion in 40 years. Thus, the focus should be on good governance and responsible leadership. With good governance and adequate social policy, Africa can build the capacity to properly manage its resources, develop its human capacity, and maintain a sustainable population growth. There are enormous benefits to be accrued to the continent if African governments invest heavily in education, health care, infrastructure development, youth development and women empowerment. In fact, education and female empowerment alone can significantly regulate Africa’s population within sustainable proportion.  
• #43: list of Africa's untapped agricultural bounty (in terms of cultivable area and cultivated area and irrigation RHS):
• #45: South Africa's young consumers are more savvy and demanding than ever before. 'prosumer'Not surprisingly, marketers have to work harder and smarter to make their brands compelling to kids, teens and young adults.2012 stands for pace, progress, challenge and increased 'prosumer' power. This year, there's zero tolerance for pushy brands.
• #46: Eighteen years of democracy in South Africa has created kids and teens fuelled by the promise of realising their potential. A cluster of highly successful entrepreneurs have emerged and are idolised by "can-do" kids who want to do exactly the same.In 2011 we reported on the growing chasm between what kids aspire to own and achieve and the necessary hard skills like numeracy which are undeveloped. The challenge here is to provide kids with the resources they need to realise their dreams.According to the Sunday Times Generation Next 2011 study, education is the number one thing that young South Africans would focus on if they were president. In
• #47: http://www.bizcommunity.com/Article/196/12/61490.html-Move over Black Diamonds, Swaggers are in the house
• #48: “Swagger is ones ability to express themselves through clothing, dance, manner and lifestyle choice in a way which portrays them as confident, successful and iconic amongst their peers.”
• #50: for many brandsDigital platforms such as Facebook and Twitter represent new outposts from which to connect to young urbanites.But parking off on Facebook is not going to create brand appeal. In 2012, we see brands having to work hard to uncover new ways to networking socially.
• #51: Campaign was touted as a Facebook hit but only because the real-life experience was hot enough to get them there.
• #52: Just do moreBrands that jump on the CSI bandwagon to rally up brownie points with a once-off campaign won't cut it anymore. are more meaningful than ad hoc big-budget attention-seeking gigs. Young people don't just want brands to make more effort to impress them - they expect them
• #53: Urban youth want brands to facilitate their experiences, rather than impose brand monologues on them.International trend analyst Josh Dhaliwal refers to the "The End of the Big Idea" because it overrides the customer's own narrative.The "big idea" approach is no longer a plausible marketing solution for drumming up interest from teens who want to dictate their experience of the brand. Brands have to work harder and smarter to consult and connect to humbly become a peer of their consumers.
• #54: Young adults from high-end suburbs seek out quirky organic eateries that offer farm-fresh goods and home-grown delicacies. The Neighbourgoods Market has become a hit in Cape Town and launched in Joburg late last year.
• #55: Whether it's fun runs, yoga classes or boot-camps in the park, group exercising will pick up the pace. Add digital, and this takes off for youth. Mobile apps such as Endomondo and Nike+ provide the tools needed to track training progress and compete with friends (and now there's Nike+ Fuelband - managing ed).
• #56: Human rights groups say African homosexuals are being targeted for increasing abuse and even murder http://www.mask.org.za/- The voice of Africa's Community (LGBTI)
• #58: The Africa Report has published its 2012 listing of the Top 500 African Companies. As in previous years, there are still no IT companies from outside SA in this listing, although there are a number of telecommunications companies included. The following highlights some of the key entries:
• #59: Africa is a mobile-first digital environment with 55% of the continent's 1 billion people having mobile phones. In South Africa mobile internet penetration is 70%, whilst desktop internet penetration sits at only at 11%, whereas in Nigeria mobile and desktop penetration are both over 20%.With the under sea cable in both West and East Africa, the speed and access to data will drive the sharing and sale of content dramatically. This is due to increase during 2012Mobile trendshttp://www.slideshare.net/rudydw/mobile-trends-2020-africa
• #60: Additionally global mobile data traffic is predicted to grow 10-fold between 2011 and 2016, mainly driven by video, say Ericsson, the largest maker of telecoms equipment. "Mobile broadband subscriptions grew by 60% in one year and are expected to grow from 900-million in 2011 to almost 5-billion in 2016," according to Ericsson's Traffic and Market Data report, released in November.
• #62: .
• #63: There is universal agreement that this is likely to be the year of the cloud, the mobile, Africa's emergence as a new economic region, the year of the tablet and the app economy too. Fast wireless broadband, increasingly powerful devices (especially) smartphones and both getting cheaper. There are now offerings from all the big players, including Google, Amazon and Microsoft, with Apple's iCloud completing the line-up - as well as nimbler companies like Dropbox and Box.net.
• #64: Rumors of a Facebook phone pop up every year, but it's a moot topic as an estimated 300-million users access the social website from their phones anyway.Transition from 'The Facebook' to FacebookThe older folk will realise why their kids spend so much time on their phones. It will also hit them that if they want to reach 60% of the Kenyan population, social media is where to find them.  With campaigns for the next general elections already in high gear, politicians will find traditional campaigning methods ineffective compared to the use of social media. Companies will find it increasingly hard to get away with poor services as word of their ineptitude spreads like wild bush fires.
• #66: Socialite NonhleThemamade headlines when she declared she'd only release carefully thought out tweets in 2012. With over a million followers, what she says holds sway.Twitter has provided millennials with an open forum from which to share their thoughts and views, and has given birth to a whole new breed of thought leaders. However, there isn't a simple recipe for success, and many brands fail in their attempts to rally up popularity with Twitter. A new Twitter hashtag has emerged in the last two weeks. #Twitterbigstick has become Kenya's virtual suggestion box, only this time, organisations are responding to customer complaints.Managers will see the futility of banning social sites in the office, instead see the opportunity of using social media to gain valuable feedback and audience reach. The demand for social media/online content managers is on the rise, and this trend will gain traction in 2012.
• #67: http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/jan/26/african-twitter-map-continent-connected#
• #68: Goodbye PC, hello smartphoneSmartphones, which outsold PCs for the first time last year, will get cheaper and more powerful. On the devices side, this will be Android's year, by sheer force of numbers. Google says daily activations of its smartphone operating system reached 700 000 in December. TV in transit 2012, owners of full-screen smartphones tablets are likely to use their devices as portable digital video recorders (DVRs) to catch up on TV viewing while commuting. The company says this will represent acceleration in the use of commuting time to watch programmes. Lee argues that this trend will be predominant among 17- to 24-year-olds
• #69: NFC is a cashless payment system already widely used in access cards for trains and undergrounds, including the Gautrain. Now it is in new smartphones and various pilots projects are running in South Africa.Mobile wallets will become more bountiful and cashless trials are running across South Africa. Mobile payments are set to surge, especially in Africa, where Kenya's M-PESA is the gold standard but hasn't translated its success into South Africa just yet. M-Pesa in Kenya has over 14 million users and is currently the world's most successful mobile payments system.More countries are catching up to the mobile money trend M-PESA in Kenya (15 million users)Consumers are able to transfer money if on the same network-the trend is speeding to countries like Rwanda and Nigeria regulators have licensed banks to lead the mobile money roll-out by pairing up with tele com operators.
• #70: The digital lifestyle survey acknowledged that trends in urban areas had a trickledown effect to those in rural areas, 60% of respondents having a smartphone and 4% owning a tablet. Fifty-four percent of consumers use some sort of mobile instant messaging once a week, and 76% of those interviewed said they accessed the Internet in some form at least once a week.Strydom says the survey is significant for FNB, which is working on growing its digital offering
• #71: MXit, the free messaging platforms 20-million fast growing 50 million users and potential are still undervalued.Apple – with its single annual upgrade of a single model, continues to hold the high ground with the iPhone 4S. Its voice assistant Siri represents a bold step towards the much better suited voice input into a cellphone with its limited keyboard. Google Voice Search, being run by a South African, is also developing well.Microsoft's Kinectholds significant promise for a range of things - not just gaming, but everything from smart houses to controlling computers - and we will see clever examples of this in 2012Cross-platform messaging service WhatsApp has claimed the top spot on SA's top 10 list of fastest rising searches for 2011, according to Google's Zeitgeist.
• #72: Nokia and Microsoft aim to bounce backNokia, still the largest seller of cellphones and Microsoft, still unable to reproduce its desktop computer dominance in the mobile space, will be hoping their unexpected alliance bears fruit with the Lumia Windows Phone
• #73: Microsoft's Windows 8 is due out this year, integrating desktop and tablet operating systems into one and represents the biggest push from the world's biggest software maker into the new cloud-based world.Whither BlackBerry?Research In Motion (RIM), whose BlackBerry phones are booming in emerging markets but plummeting in developed ones, face a black year..
• #74: Intel would like it to be the year of the ultrabook, a new fancy name for smaller, thinner laptops. Similar to the MacBook Air, but running Windows, these light devices are great for mobile workers or people who just want a lighter, but no less powerful, laptop.
• #75: According to the survey, African professionals are the most likely to be given an iPad by their employer.47 % of African respondents said they own a corporate-issue iPad. This is compared to the global average of 24%.
• #78: ONLY 6 countries have freedom of info.Nigeria Uganda LiberiaEthiopiaSouth AfricaAngola 2012 will remain a year in which journalists will continue to fight against tight-fisted control of public information and media freedoms by more authoritarian governments. The move to a more free media and open access to information by some African governments must be laudedClose, dictatorial and authoritarian environments aren't good for media growth or investment. To promote positive growth trends African nation leaders need to realize that media openness, freedom, growth and diversity is crucialAfrica offer the greatest opportunities for both media content and media distribution across television, digital media, mobile and other media. The reason for the media boom she says is urbanization, youth and the expansion of an emerging middle-class who will contribute to the sectors future growth
• #79: Botswana joins a number of other jurisdictions in sub-Saharan Africa, in adopting Competition LegislationSAMauritiusNamibia