Ai progress = leaderboards compute data algorithms 20180817 v3

Editor's Notes

• #2: IBM Code: http://ibm.com/code CODAIT: http://codait.org/ MAX: https://developer.ibm.com/code/exchanges/models/ Call For Code: https://callforcode.org/ To reuse, send request to Jim Spohrer <[email protected]> To cite: Spohrer J (2019) AI Progress = Leaderboards + Compurer + Data + Algorithms. URL = http://slideshare.net/spohrer/ai-progress-=-leaderboards-computer-data-algorithms-20180817-v3 Also cite: Rouse WB, Spohrer JC (2018) Automating versus augmenting intelligence. Journal of Enterprise Transformation. 2018 Feb 7:1-21.
• #3: Expert predictions on HMLI: URL https://arxiv.org/pdf/1705.08807.pdf 2015 Pattern Recognition Speech: URL: http://spandh.dcs.shef.ac.uk/chime_challenge/chime2016/results.html 2015 Pattern Recognition Images: URL: http://www.image-net.org/ 2015 Patten Recognition Translation: URL: http://www.statmt.org/wmt17/ 2018 Video Understanding Actions: URL: http://www.thumos.info/home.html > Also UCF101 http://crcv.ucf.edu/data/UCF101.php 2018 Video Understanding Context: URL: http://visualqa.org/challenge.html 2018 Video Understanding DeepVideo: URL: http://cs.stanford.edu/people/karpathy/deepvideo/ 2021 Memory Declarative: URL: https://rajpurkar.github.io/SQuAD-explorer/ Also Allen AI Kaggle Science Challenge https://www.kaggle.com/c/the-allen-ai-science-challenge 2024 Reasoning Deduction: URL: http://www.satcompetition.org/ 2027: Social Interaction Scripts: URL: https://competitions.codalab.org/competitions/15333 2030: Fluent Conversation Speech Acts: URL: http://convai.io/ 2030: Fluent Conversation Intentions: URL: http://workshop.colips.org/dstc6/ 2030: Fluent Conversation Alexa Prize: URL: https://developer.amazon.com/alexaprize 2033: Assistant & Collaborator Summarization: URL: http://rali.iro.umontreal.ca/rali/?q=en/Automatic%20summarization 2033: Assistant & Collaborator Debate: URL: http://argumentationcompetition.org/2015/ 2036: Coach & Mediator General AI: URL: https://www.general-ai-challenge.org/ 2036: Coach & Mediator Negotiation: URL: https://easychair.org/cfp/AT2017
• #4: What is beyond Exascale? Zetta (21), Yotta (24) Time dimension (x-axis) is plus or minus 10 years…. Daniel Pakkala (VTT) URL: https://aiimpacts.org/preliminary-prices-for-human-level-hardware/ Dan Gruhl: https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/business/1983/11/06/in-pursuit-of-the-10-gigaflop-machine/012c995a-2b16-470b-96df-d823c245306e/?utm_term=.d4bde5652826   In 1983 10 GF was ~10 million.   That's 24.55 million in today's dollars.   or 2.4 billion for 1 TF in 1983   Today 1 TF is about $3k http://www.popsci.com/intel-teraflop-chip
• #5: Source: http://service-science.info/archives/4741
• #8: Where is the variety? Hardware and even software standardizing into modules and algorithms…. Data will standardize next into categories and types…. Experience is where the uniqueness is, and variety and variability, and identity. Pine and Gilmore – Experience Economy Book – Chapter 10 – Transformation Economy - https://www.amazon.com/Experience-Economy-Theater-Every-Business/dp/0875848192#reader_0875848192 Pine II, B. J. & Gilmore, J. H. (1999). The experience economy: work is theatre & every business a stage. Harvard Business Press. pp: 186-189. (Chapter 10 is about the transformation economy) Osati, Sohrab (Dec 18, 2014) Sony Lifelog App Gains GPS Support for Android Wear. SonyRumors.net http://www.sonyrumors.net/2014/12/18/sony-lifelog-app-gains-gps-support-for-android-wear/ Roy, D., Patel, R., DeCamp, P., Kubat, R., Fleischman, M., Roy, B., ... & Levit, M. (2006). The human speechome project. In Symbol Grounding and Beyond (pp. 192-196). Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg.
• #9: 1950 Nathaniel Rochester (IBM) 701 first commercial computer that did super-human levels of numeric calculations routinely. He worked at MIT on arithmetic unit of WhirlWind I programmable computer. Dota 2 is most recent August 11, 2017 as a super-human game player in Valve Dota 2 competition – Elon Musk’s OpenAI result. Miles Bundage tracks gaming progress: http://www.milesbrundage.com/blog-posts/my-ai-forecasts-past-present-and-future-main-post DOTA2: https://blog.openai.com/more-on-dota-2/
• #11: GitHub – open source code – http://github.com Kaggle – data and competitions – http://Kaggle.com Leaderboard – AI an competitions - https://www.slideshare.net/spohrer/leaderboards-80909263 Figure Eight – label data - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Figure_Eight_Inc. Open Source Guides – reader, contributor, committer, governance - https://opensource.guide/ GitHub is to knowledge in action (writing code) as Wikidedia is to knowledge in text (writing text)
• #12: Github registration URL: https://github.com/ Lukas Kaiser – one model that can do all leaderboard best - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8FpdEmySsuc T2T URL: https://github.com/tensorflow/tensor2tensor T2T iPython Notebook URL: https://colab.research.google.com/notebook#fileId=/v2/external/notebooks/t2t/hello_t2t.ipynb One favorite that can do them all: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8FpdEmySsuc URLs Github: code, content (data), community – http://github.com Kaggle: competition and leaderboards - http://Kaggle.com Figure-Eight: lots of labeled data – http://figure-eight.com Rapidly Rebuild: Danko Nicolic - AI Kindergarten (Practopoesis) - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aMQCi3Sn2mE Lukas Kaiser wants to get one model that can do all leaderboards – one model to do them all Danko Nicolic wants to rapidly rebuild from scratch intelligent agents (that behave well socially with people)– rapid rebuilding
• #13: Free online cognitive classe URL: https://cognitiveclass.ai/ Here is what I tell students.... ... to try to provoke their thinking about the cognitive era:     (0) 2015 - about 9 months to build a formative Q&A system - 40% accuracy;         - another 1-2 years and a team of 10-20, can get it to 90% accuracy, by reducing the scope ("sorry that question is out of scope")         - today's systems can only answer questions, if the answers are already existing in the text explicitly         - debater is an example of where we would like to get to though in 5 years: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7g59PJxbGhY         - more about the ambitions at  http://cognitive-science.info     (1) 2025: Watson will be able to rapidly ingest just about any textbooks and produce a Q&A system         - the Q&A system will rival C-grade (average) student performance on questions     (2) 2035 - above, but rivals C-level (average) faculty performance on questions     (3) 2035 - an exascale of compute power costs about $1000         - an exascale is the equivalent compute of one person's brain power (at 20W power)     (4) 2035 - nearly everyone has a cognitive mediator that knows them in many ways better than they know themselves          - memory of all health information, memory of everyone you have ever interacted with, executive assistant, personal coach, process and memory aid, etc.     (5) 2055 - nearly everyone has 100 cognitive assistants that "work for them"         - better management of your cognitive assistant workforce is a course taught at university In 2015, we are at the beginning of the beginning or the cognitive era... In 2025, we will be middle of beginning... easy to generate average student level performance on questions in textbook.... In 2035, we will be end of beginning (one brain power equivalent)... easy to generate average faculty level performance on questions in textbook....     http://www.slideshare.net/spohrer/spohrer-ubi-learn-20151103-v2 By 2055, roughly 2x 20 year generations out, the cognitive era will be in full force. Cellphones will likely become body suits - with burst-mode super-strength and super-safety features: Suits - body suit cell phones Cognitive Mediators will read everything for us, and relate the information to  us - and what we know and our goals. Think combined personal coach, executive assistant, personal research team.... The key is knowing which problem to work on next - see this long video for the answer - energy, water, food, wellness -  and note especially the wellness suit at the end:     https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YY7f1t9y9a0&index=10&list=WL Do not be put off by the beginning of the video - it is a bit over hyped and trivial, to say the leasat... but the projects are really good if you have the patience to watch.
• #14: Source: Vijay Bommireddipally (CODAIT Director) and Fred Reiss (CODAIT Chief Architect)
• #16: The weakest link is what needs to be improved – according to system scientists. Accessing help, service, experts is the weakest link in most systems. By 2035 the phone may have the power of one human brain – by 2055 the phone may have the power of all human brains. Before trying to answer the question about which types of sciences are more important – the ones that try to explain the external world or the ones that try to explain the internal world – consider this, slide that shows the different telephones that I have used in my life. I grew up in rural Maine, where we had a party line telephone because we were somewhat remote on our farm in Newburgh, Maine. However, over the years phones got much better…. So in 2035 or 2055, who are you going to call when you need help?
• #17: By 2036, there will be an accumulation of knowledge as well as a distribution of knowledge in service systems globally. We need to ensure as there is knowledge accumulation that service systems at all scale become more resilient. Leading to the capability of rapid rebuilding of service systems across scales, by T-shaped people who understand how to rapidly rebuild – knowledge has been chunked, modularized, and put into networks that support rapid rebuilding.
• #19: URL Amazon: https://www.amazon.com/Knowledge-Rebuild-Civilization-Aftermath-Cataclysm-ebook/dp/B00DMCV5YS/ URL TED Talk: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CdTzsbqQyhY Citation: Dartnell L (2012) The Knowledge: How to Rebuild Civilization in the Aftermath of a Cataclysm. Westminster London: Penguin Books. Jim Spohrer Blogs: Grand Challenge: http://service-science.info/archives/2189 Re-readings: http://service-science.info/archives/4416
• #20: IBM Code – http://ibm.com/code