An Inconvenient Reality Oct 2007

An Inconvenient Reality Oct 2007

• 1.
  Workforce Preparation ChallengesFacing Hawai`I AN INCONVENIENT REALITY
• 2.
  Hawai`i’s Changing EconomyMajor shifts in the world and U.S. economies have had a substantial impact in Hawai`i. These shifts have had a dramatic affect on the type of jobs, the level of personal income, and the quality of life.
• 3.
  Hawai`i Employment byIndustry - 1962 Business services 1% Other services 6% Federal military 23% Insurance 1% Health services 2% Real estate 2% Hotel services 2% Finance 2% Retail 12% Communication 1% Wholesale 5% Utilities 1% Transportation 4% Manufacturing 10% Construction 6% Agriculture 5% County government 3% State government 6% Federal civilian 10% Source: P. Brewbaker, BOH, Aug. 02
• 4.
  Hawai`i Employment byIndustry - 2006
• 5.
  We Have DevelopingOpportunities, Will We Have the Workforce?
• 6.
  The Worker SupplyGap An Insufficient Number of Qualified Workers
• 7.
  We Need toFill 28,000 Jobs Annually Source: EMSI June 2007 Average Annual Openings SOC Job Cluster Due to Growth Due to Separations Total Sales and related occupations 1,199 3,109 4,308 Food preparation and serving related occupations 428 3,180 3,608 Office and administrative support occupations 101 3,125 3,226 Building and grounds cleaning and maintenance occupations 883 982 1,865 Management occupations 650 967 1,618 Personal care and service occupations 806 759 1,565 Education, training, and library occupations 560 923 1,484 Transportation and material moving occupations 268 1,142 1,410 Production occupations 281 952 1,234 Healthcare practitioners and technical occupations 411 582 994 Business and financial operations occupations 352 607 960 Installation, maintenance, and repair occupations 272 687 959 Construction and extraction occupations 87 763 851 Military Occupations (494) 1,322 828 Protective service occupations 128 685 814 Arts, design, entertainment, sports, and media occupations 300 384 684 Healthcare support occupations 335 269 604 Community and social services occupations 267 247 514 Computer and mathematical science occupations 217 164 381 Life, physical, and social science occupations 89 194 283 Architecture and engineering occupations 33 248 281 Farming, fishing, and forestry occupations (2) 80 78 Legal occupations (4) 72 68 Total Jobs 7,169 21,446 28,615
• 8.
  Source: EMSI June2007 Most Require Education Beyond HS Average Annual Openings SOC Job Cluster Due to Growth Due to Separations Total Sales and related occupations 1,199 3,109 4,308 Food preparation and serving related occupations 428 3,180 3,608 Office and administrative support occupations 101 3,125 3,226 Building and grounds cleaning and maintenance occupations 883 982 1,865 Management occupations 650 967 1,618 Personal care and service occupations 806 759 1,565 Education, training, and library occupations 560 923 1,484 Transportation and material moving occupations 268 1,142 1,410 Production occupations 281 952 1,234 Healthcare practitioners and technical occupations 411 582 994 Business and financial operations occupations 352 607 960 Installation, maintenance, and repair occupations 272 687 959 Construction and extraction occupations 87 763 851 Military Occupations (494) 1,322 828 Protective service occupations 128 685 814 Arts, design, entertainment, sports, and media occupations 300 384 684 Healthcare support occupations 335 269 604 Community and social services occupations 267 247 514 Computer and mathematical science occupations 217 164 381 Life, physical, and social science occupations 89 194 283 Architecture and engineering occupations 33 248 281 Farming, fishing, and forestry occupations (2) 80 78 Legal occupations (4) 72 68 Total Jobs 7,169 21,446 28,615
• 9.
  Source: EMSI June2007 Hawaii’s Growing Innovation Sector STEM Jobs Comprise nearly 10% of the Total Jobs in the State Description 2006 Jobs 2017 Jobs New Jobs Replacement Jobs Annual Jobs to Fill Computer and mathematical science occupations 11,995 14,386 2,392 1,798 381 Architecture and engineering occupations 11,781 12,143 363 2,732 281 Life, physical, and social science occupations 8,126 9,104 981 2,138 284 Arts, design, entertainment, sports, and media occupations 2,627 3,123 495 597 99 Healthcare practitioners and technical occupations 31,251 35,774 4,520 6,406 993 Healthcare support occupations 16,509 20,190 3,679 2,962 604 TOTAL 82,290 94,719 12,430 16,632 2,642
• 10.
  HS Graduates SupplyLess Than 1/2 of the 28,000 Annual Jobs to Fill Source: WICHE High School Graduate Projections
• 11.
  We Need tobe Ready to Replace Skilled People in Critical Jobs Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 Census; 5%PUMS Files
• 12.
  Homes on O‘ahu—BeyondAffordable Source: The Honolulu Advertiser , University of Hawaii economist Carl Bonham We can no longer depend on an imported workforce. * Price of an affordable home based on state’s median household income, average mortgage rate, and a 30-year mortgage with 20% down. ** Projected $356,100 $128,400 $591,300** $369,400** **
• 13.
  We are Exportingthe Experienced Core of Our Workforce Hawaii Net Migration by Degree Level and Age Group Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 Census; 5% Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS) Files 22- to 29-Year-Olds 30- to 64-Year-Olds Less than High School High School Some College Associate Bachelor’s Graduate/Professional Total 607 -5,778 -11,761 -1,787 -1,962 603 -20,078 -25,000 -20,000 -15,000 -10,000 -5,000 0 5,000 806 1,151 -2,132 -819 2,108 1,187 2,301 -3,000 -2,000 -1,000 0 1,000 2,000 3,000
• 14.
  We Can ExpectContinued Difficulty in Filling Job Vacancies Well Into the Future Projected Change in Population by Age Group, 2000 to 2020 Source: U.S. Census Bureau Population Projections Age: <15 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+
• 15.
  Unemployment Rates—Hawaii andU.S., 1995-2006 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
• 16.
  We Need toIncrease the Rate of Participation in the Workforce Percent of Civilian Population Participating in the Workforce, 2004 Source: U.S. Census Bureau
• 17.
  Hawaii = 64.7%Source: U.S. Census Bureau Percent of Population Age 16 and Older Participating in the Workforce, 2004 66 .6% to 66 .9% 60 .6% to 66 .6% 58 .0% to 60 .6% 39 .4% to 58 .0% Hawaii Maui Honolulu Kauai
• 18.
  An Individual’s Levelof Education is Directly Related to Their Ability to Participate in the Workforce Hawaii Civilians Age 25-64 in the Workforce by Education Attainment, 2005 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2005 ACS PUMS File Less than High School High School Diploma or GED Some College, No Degree Associate Degree Bachelor's Degree Graduate or Professional Degree In Civilian Workforce Not in Civilian Workforce Number Percent Number Percent 34,623 63.8 19,658 36.2 144,239 75.4 46,967 24.6 104,974 78.1 29,469 21.9 55,994 81.1 13,074 18.9 111,765 83.9 21,485 16.1 53,100 84.5 9,724 15.5
• 19.
  The Worker PreparationGap An Insufficient Number of People with Needed Skills
• 20.
  A Lack ofInvestment Has Resulted in Shortages in Critical Fields Number of 2-Year Degrees and Certificates in Health Sciences Awarded (2003) Per 100 HS Graduates Three Years Earlier, 2000 Source: NCES-IPEDS Completions 2002-03; WICHE High School Graduates, 2000 Arizona Wisconsin Kansas Colorado Florida North Carolina Louisiana Kentucky Iowa Georgia South Carolina Illinois Washington Mississippi Minnesota Virginia Tennessee Alabama Arkansas South Dakota Indiana Utah United States Idaho Missouri New Mexico West Virginia Wyoming Oregon Delaware California New Hampshire Nevada Michigan Nebraska Ohio Texas Maine Massachusetts New York Pennsylvania North Dakota Rhode Island Oklahoma Montana Vermont Hawaii Maryland Alaska Connecticut New Jersey
• 21.
  Number of 4-YearDegrees in Health Sciences Awarded (2003) Per 100 High School Graduates Six Years Earlier, 2000 Source: NCES-IPEDS Completions 2002-03; WICHE High School Graduates 1997 North Dakota Nebraska Delaware South Dakota Louisiana Maine Missouri West Virginia Arkansas Alabama Kansas Pennsylvania Indiana Rhode Island Massachusetts North Carolina New York Mississippi Idaho New Hampshire Florida Michigan Wisconsin Utah Connecticut Virginia United States Ohio Tennessee Georgia Hawaii Illinois Maryland Iowa Oregon Kentucky New Mexico Oklahoma Arizona Montana Colorado Nevada Texas Minnesota Washington South Carolina Vermont Wyoming Alaska California New Jersey
• 22.
  Number of 4-YearDegrees Awarded (2003) Per 100 High School Graduates Six Years Earlier, 2000 Source: NCES-IPEDS Completions 2002-03; WICHE High School Graduates, 1997
• 23.
  As Experienced WorkersLeave the Workforce, We Need to Get More Incumbent Workers to Enroll in Further Education Part-Time Undergraduate Enrollment as a % of Population Age 25-44, 2000 Source: NCES-IPEDS, U.S. Census Bureau 5.2 10.8 6.2 3.3 Arizona California Utah New Mexico Kansas Alaska Wyoming Nevada Illinois Oregon Michigan Nebraska Colorado Florida Missouri Washington Rhode Island Wisconsin United States Maryland Texas Minnesota Virginia Iowa Oklahoma Delaware Maine North Carolina Hawaii Massachusetts Alabama Connecticut Idaho Ohio South Dakota Vermont Indiana South Carolina New Hampshire New Jersey Tennessee Arkansas New York Kentucky Georgia Louisiana Mississippi North Dakota West Virginia Pennsylvania Montana
• 24.
  Education Pipeline PerformanceAn Insufficient Number of Individuals Prepared for Further Education or Training
• 25.
  Key Transition Pointsin the Education to Work Pipeline Complete High School Enter College Finish College Enter the Workplace
• 26.
  Student Pipeline—2004 Of100 9th Graders, How Many… Source: NCES Common Core Data, NCES IPEDS 2004 Residence and Migration Survey, NCEC IPEDS 2004 Fall Enrollment Survey and Graduation Rate Survey
• 27.
  UH Community Colleges’ Entering Student Placement
• 28.
  HAWAII
• 29.
  Hawaii’s underperformance ineducating its young population could limit the state’s access to a competitive workforce and weaken its economy over time. As the well-educated baby boomer generation begins to retire, the young population that will replace it does not appear prepared educationally to maintain or enhance the state’s position in a global economy. Hawaii continues to fall behind in graduating 9th graders from high school within four years and enrolling them in college by age 19—and these rates have dropped by double digits since the early 1990s.
• 30.
  Source: The NationalCenter for Public Policy and Higher Education PREPARATION HAWAII Top States 2006 1992 2006 High School Completion       18- to 24-year olds with a high school credential 94% 94% 94% K-12 Student Achievement       8th graders scoring at or above &quot;proficient' on the national assessment exam     in math 14% 18% 38% in reading 19% 15% 38% in science 15% 18% 41% in writing 15% 18% 41% Low-income 8th graders scoring at or above &quot;proficient' on the national assessment exam 7% 7% 22%
• 31.
  Source: The NationalCenter for Public Policy and Higher Education PREPARATION HAWAII Top States 2006 1992 2006 High School Completion       18- to 24-year olds with a high school credential 94% 94% 94% K-12 Student Achievement       8th graders scoring at or above &quot;proficient' on the national assessment exam     in math 14% 18% 38% in reading 19% 15% 38% in science 15% 18% 41% in writing 15% 18% 41% Low-income 8th graders scoring at or above &quot;proficient' on the national assessment exam 7% 7% 22%
• 32.
  Eighth graders inHawaii perform very poorly on national assessments in math, science, reading, and writing, indicating that they are not well prepared to succeed in challenging high school courses. Hawaii is among the lowest-performing states in science and reading. Low-income 8th graders perform very poorly on national assessments in math.
• 33.
  We are atop state when we measure rate of HS graduation. We are far behind, however, when we look at actual student performance in skills critical to success in post-secondary education and the new jobs in our economy. Despite improvement, Hawaii lags many other states in preparing students to succeed in college. To Sum Up
• 34.
  There are consequences.
• 35.
  Hawaii is almost30 percentage points below the national benchmark in workforce preparation as reflected in professional licensure examinations. Hawaii also ranks more than 35 percentage points below the national benchmark in preparing students for graduate study. Hawaii is about 15% below the national benchmark with respect to pass rates on the state’s teacher examinations.
• 36.
  HAWAII CHALLENGE: Raise Achievement and Close Gaps Hawaii Education Summit August, 2007
• 37.
  Let’s take acloser look at our 15 year olds.
• 38.
  2003: U.S.Ranked 24 th out of 29 OECD Countries in Mathematics Source: Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), PISA 2003 Results , data available at http://www.oecd.org/
• 39.
  Problems are notlimited to our high-poverty and high-minority schools . . .
• 40.
  U.S. Ranks Lowin the Percent of Students in the Highest Achievement Level (Level 6) in Math Source : Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), PISA 2003 Results , data available at http://www.oecd.org/
• 41.
  U.S. Ranks 23rd out of 29 OECD Countries in the Math Achievement of the Highest-Performing Students* * Students at the 95 th Percentile Source: Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), PISA 2003 Results , data available at http://www.oecd.org/
• 42.
  U.S. Ranks 23rd out of 29 OECD Countries in the Math Achievement of High-SES Students Source : Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), PISA 2003 Results , data available at http://www.oecd.org/
• 43.
  Problems not limitedto math, either.
• 44.
  PISA 2003: Problem-Solving,US Ranks 24 th Out of 29 OECD Countries Source : NCES, 2005, International Outcomes of Learning in Mathematics, Literacy and Problem Solving: 2003 PISA Results. NCES 2005-003
• 45.
  More than halfof our 15 year olds at problem-solving level 1 or below. Source: OECD Problem Solving for Tomorrow’s World. 2004
• 46.
  Where is Hawaiiin All of This?
• 47.
  Hawaii: State MathResults Grade 4, 2007
• 48.
  Hawaii: State MathResults Grade 8, 2007
• 49.
  Hawaii 10 th Grade Math: Students “Well Below” Percent Number Chinese 24% 99 Filipino 47% 1,352 Hawaiian 70% 349 Japanese 24% 326 Part Haw. 64% 1,667 Samoan 72% 292 White 35% 539
• 50.
  Loss at theTop: Math Exceeds in Grade 4 Exceeds in Grade 8 Exceeds in Grade 10 Hawaiian 12% 1% 2% Part Hawaiian 12% 3% 4% Samoan 9% 1% 2%
• 51.
  Hawaii Students onNational Assessments?
• 52.
  Hawaii: NAEP 8thGrade Math 2005
• 53.
  Hawaii: NAEP 8thGrade Math 2005
• 54.
  8th Grade Math: NAEP Fewer Students Below Basic, More Proficient
• 55.
  Relative to OtherStates?
• 56.
  NAEP 2005 Grade8 Math, Overall Scale Scores Source: National Center for Education Statistics, NAEP Data Explorer, http://nces.ed.gov/nationsreportcard/nde
• 57.
  NAEP 2005 Grade8 Math, Low-Income Scale Scores Source: National Center for Education Statistics, NAEP Data Explorer, http://nces.ed.gov/nationsreportcard/nde
• 58.
  Education “Pipeline” inHawaii Note: Enrollment data for 2- and 4- year colleges do not sum to 100 because each includes large number of students who self-identify as “other”, 13% in 2-year colleges and 38% in 4-year colleges. K-12 UH System East Asian 14% 21% White 15% 21% Hawaiian 27% 14% Samoan 4% 3% Filipino 21% 13%
• 59.
  Hawaii Postsecondary vs. Leading States Hawaii Top Five States HS Freshmen enrolling in college 4 years later 32% 53% Community College Freshmen Returning 51% 62% Freshmen in 4 Year Colleges Returning 72% 82% Freshmen Obtaining BA in 6 years 43% 67%
• 60.
  Differences in CollegeAttainment (Associate and Higher) by Age Group Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 Census Age 25-34 Age 45-64 15% 25% 35% 45% 55% Massachusetts Minnesota North Dakota Connecticut Colorado New York New Jersey Vermont New Hampshire Maryland Nebraska Illinois Virginia Iowa Rhode Island South Dakota Wisconsin Washington Pennsylvania Kansas Delaware Hawaii Utah United States Montana Michigan North Carolina Georgia Ohio Missouri Oregon Wyoming California Florida Maine Indiana Idaho South Carolina Arizona Texas Alabama Tennessee Alaska Oklahoma Kentucky New Mexico Mississippi Louisiana West Virginia Arkansas Nevada
• 61.
  Differences in CollegeAttainment (Assoc. and Higher) by Age Group—Hawaii, U.S. and Leading OECD Countries, 2004 Source: OECD, Education at a Glance 2005
• 62.
  THE BOTTOM LINE: WE NEED BETTER OUTCOMES We are falling behind other states in the U.S. and competitors in the Pacific region in the education of our future workforce.
• 63.
  David Heenan– Flight Capital (2005) Know Thy Competition Adapt – or Die Spur Immigration Reform Dust off the Welcome Mat Target the Best Minds Encourage Dual Loyalties Reform – Really Reform – Public Education Nourish the Halls of Ivy Celebrate Science and Technology Expand the Workforce Reconsider National Service Act Now
• 64.
  Confronting the FutureWe won't lose by taking bold action. But we will probably be hurt badly if we're too slow to prevent the worst-case scenario. Hawai'i needs no outside permission. The next generation will thank us. Let's get on with it. Mike Fitzgerald, President and CEO of Enterprise Honolulu (Honolulu Advertiser, July 17, 2007)
• 65.
  For Further Information Contact: Jeffrey Piontek Hawaii Technology Academy AN INCONVENIENT REALITY