SlideShare a Scribd company logo
Beware of Survivorship Bias! (conference talk at J-Fall 2019)
Beware of Survivorship Bias! (conference talk at J-Fall 2019)
Beware of Survivorship Bias! (conference talk at J-Fall 2019)
https://nos.nl/data/image/2017/01/29/349992/xxl.jpg
https://nl.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bestand:Verkiezingen2.jpg
¯_(ツ)_/¯
https://www.pexels.com/photo/grayscale-photography-of-man-and-woman-sitting-on-chair-1181735
Do I need a blockchain?
No.
https://medium.com/@sbmeunier/when-do-you-need-blockchain-decision-models-a5c40e7c9ba1
Do you need a database?
Don't use
a blockchain
Does it require shared
write access?
Are writers known
and trusted?
Do you want/need
to use a trusted 3rd
party?
Yes
Yes
No
No
No
Are writers'
interests
unified?
Yes
Yes
No
Do you need to
control functionality?
No
Yes
Do you want transactions
to be public or private?
No
Use a public
blockchain
Public
Where is consensus
determined?
Use a hybrid
blockchain
Private
Inter-firm
Use a private
blockchain
Intra-firm
Yes
https://medium.com/@sbmeunier/when-do-you-need-blockchain-decision-models-a5c40e7c9ba1
Can you articulate a
real business problem?
Try a normal
database.
Could this have
been fixed before
blockchains?
Is this a 'digital
identities' and 'blockchains
are free' play?
Should or could an entity
have overall control?
Yes
Yes
No
Yes
Yes
Will all
participants need
to upgrade/replace
systems?
No
Yes
Will participants mind their
data being visible?
No
You may have
a use case
No
Can they adopt?
Do the benefits justify the
costs of adoption?
Yes
Yes
Yes
https://medium.com/@sbmeunier/when-do-you-need-blockchain-decision-models-a5c40e7c9ba1
election blockchain
writers known? yes no
writers trusted? yes no
writers' interests uni ed? yes no
trusted third party? yes no
private transactions? yes no
SurvivorshipSurvivorshipSurvivorshipSurvivorshipSurvivorship
BiasBiasBiasBiasBias
https://pxhere.com/en/photo/958105
https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Survivorship-bias.png
It won't solveIt won't solveIt won't solveIt won't solveIt won't solve
everything!everything!everything!everything!everything!
Just because a conference speaker solved
his/her problem with some new, cool
technique doesn't mean it will also solve
yours.
https://www.pexels.com/photo/2-hands-holding-1-jigsaw-puzzle-piece-each-164531/
Conference-drivenConference-drivenConference-drivenConference-drivenConference-driven
developmentdevelopmentdevelopmentdevelopmentdevelopment
Learn new skills at a conference, and then
use it to solve pretty much everything.
https://pxhere.com/en/photo/1130503
OverengineeringOverengineeringOverengineeringOverengineeringOverengineering
If you apply CDD to everything you do,
your solutions will quickly become
overengineered.
https://www. ickr.com/photos/footfun/2454000816
http://gph.is/18wDuA0
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/
List_of_failed_and_overbudget_custom_software_projects
Beware of Survivorship Bias! (conference talk at J-Fall 2019)
Beware of Survivorship Bias! (conference talk at J-Fall 2019)
Beware of Survivorship Bias! (conference talk at J-Fall 2019)
https://pxhere.com/en/photo/655299
AlternativesAlternativesAlternativesAlternativesAlternatives
https://pxhere.com/en/photo/1267965
BeatingBeatingBeatingBeatingBeating
SurvivorshipSurvivorshipSurvivorshipSurvivorshipSurvivorship
BiasBiasBiasBiasBias https://pxhere.com/en/photo/958105
Bullet image by , fromClker-Free-Vector-Images Pixabay
Understand theUnderstand theUnderstand theUnderstand theUnderstand the
problem firstproblem firstproblem firstproblem firstproblem first
https://pxhere.com/en/photo/843810
Track A Track B
09:00-
10:00
QWERTY or DVORAK? Debunking
the Keyboard Layout Myths
Beware of
Survivorship
Bias!
10:00-
11:00
How I Created a MMORPG Game
Using Haskell Only
An Introduction
to Kubernetes
11:00-
12:00
Monitoring Kubernetes with
Prometheus
Return of the
Blockchain
Gain some experienceGain some experienceGain some experienceGain some experienceGain some experience
firstfirstfirstfirstfirst
This could mean you have to wait until
next year's conference in order to
appreciate fully the contents of an
advanced talk.
https://pxhere.com/en/photo/918274
Build your personalBuild your personalBuild your personalBuild your personalBuild your personal
conference scheduleconference scheduleconference scheduleconference scheduleconference schedule
accordinglyaccordinglyaccordinglyaccordinglyaccordingly
Value topics relevant to your experience
over 'the next silver bullet'.
https://pxhere.com/en/photo/1370392
Make sure you meetMake sure you meetMake sure you meetMake sure you meetMake sure you meet
the prerequisitesthe prerequisitesthe prerequisitesthe prerequisitesthe prerequisites
Don't attend a talk that proposes a
solution to a problem, if you don't
understand the problem yet.
https://pxhere.com/en/photo/843810
Remember theRemember theRemember theRemember theRemember the
Hype CycleHype CycleHype CycleHype CycleHype Cycle
https://pxhere.com/en/photo/1262347
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/b/bf/Hype-Cycle-General.png
Possible Talk Title
On the Rise NoSQL: The New Reality
At the Peak NoSQL Will Change Your Life and
Fix Your Projects
Sliding Into
the Trough
How We Do NoSQL at Cool, Inc.
Climbing the
Slope
Modern NoSQL Patterns and
Practices
Entering the
Plateau
NoSQL 2.0 with SilverBulletDB
Does the speakerDoes the speakerDoes the speakerDoes the speakerDoes the speaker
mention anymention anymention anymention anymention any
drawbacks?drawbacks?drawbacks?drawbacks?drawbacks?
The best talks contain detailed
comparisons of pros and cons
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/b/b2/Balance_scale_IMGP9728.jpg
Use the Q&A at theUse the Q&A at theUse the Q&A at theUse the Q&A at theUse the Q&A at the
end of the talkend of the talkend of the talkend of the talkend of the talk
Scary at rst perhaps, but take comfort in
the fact that the rest of the audience is
rooting for you.
https://www.pexels.com/photo/monopoly-car-piece-1634213/
Try to arrange aTry to arrange aTry to arrange aTry to arrange aTry to arrange a
'hallway meeting''hallway meeting''hallway meeting''hallway meeting''hallway meeting'
Which basically means just bumping into
them in the hallways!
https://pxhere.com/en/photo/1454179
They seem to really like that, by the way!
How would youyouyouyouyou solve
the puzzle?
https://pxhere.com/en/photo/1207943
Start tinkeringStart tinkeringStart tinkeringStart tinkeringStart tinkering
https://pxhere.com/en/photo/901709
Learning Through Tinkering: The Need for Pet Projects (Tom Cools)
ExperimentExperimentExperimentExperimentExperiment
If you cannot reproduce the problem and
the solution, there must be another factor
at play.
https://pxhere.com/en/photo/1004202
Look at the numbersLook at the numbersLook at the numbersLook at the numbersLook at the numbers
Succeeded Failed
Same approach
Di erent approach
→ What do they tell you?
https://pxhere.com/en/photo/1437973
The community needsThe community needsThe community needsThe community needsThe community needs
you!you!you!you!you!
Blog, tweet or speak about your failures
and what you've learned from them!
Master Your ToolsMaster Your ToolsMaster Your ToolsMaster Your ToolsMaster Your Tools
Use your tools long enough to really get to
know them.
https://pxhere.com/en/photo/704019
Maven's Dependency Tree
mvn dependency:tree ­Dincludes=*:spring­batch*:*
TemptingTemptingTemptingTemptingTempting
Abraham Maslow
Toward a Psychology of Being
"I suppose it is tempting, if the only tool
you have is a hammer, to treat everything
as if it were a nail."
https://www.pexels.com/photo/black-claw-hammer-on-brown-wooden-plank-209235/
Take AwaysTake AwaysTake AwaysTake AwaysTake Aways
1. Share your failures and lessons learned!
2. Start tinkering!
3. See you in the Hallway track!
Beware of Survivorship Bias! (conference talk at J-Fall 2019)

More Related Content

PDF
Blogworkshop Part 1
PPTX
Maker Boot Camp
PDF
Building Installations in Five Days (and a bit) at Ignite London 4
PPTX
Production management stage 2 2015
PDF
Working In The Now - Paris Web
PDF
Travailler dans le présent - Chris Heilmann - Paris Web 2008
PPTX
Estudio34 Presents Will critchlow the future of linkbuilding in LinkLove2013
PPTX
Will Critchlow - The Future of Link Building
Blogworkshop Part 1
Maker Boot Camp
Building Installations in Five Days (and a bit) at Ignite London 4
Production management stage 2 2015
Working In The Now - Paris Web
Travailler dans le présent - Chris Heilmann - Paris Web 2008
Estudio34 Presents Will critchlow the future of linkbuilding in LinkLove2013
Will Critchlow - The Future of Link Building

Similar to Beware of Survivorship Bias! (conference talk at J-Fall 2019) (20)

PPT
Art dept communication
PPTX
Production management stage 2 2015
PDF
Resisting The Feature Creature
PPT
Faster! Faster! Accelerate your business with blazing prototypes
PDF
Project management software of your dreams
PDF
Finding harmony in web development
PDF
The Soft Side of Software Development / Devoxx 2019
PPTX
Production management stage 1
PDF
Georgia Tech hacking Accessibility
PDF
FFWD.PRO - It's not you, It's me (or how to avoid being coupled with a Javasc...
PDF
Webstock Workshop: Creating Simple
PPT
Create Engaging Library Experiences
PPTX
Production management stage 1
PDF
The road to professional web development
PDF
Zdesign portfolio 7
PDF
Let's interface
PDF
Working with Developers
PDF
Agile in Distributed Team Setups
PPTX
Thinking Like a CEO
DOCX
Game Engine Terminology
Art dept communication
Production management stage 2 2015
Resisting The Feature Creature
Faster! Faster! Accelerate your business with blazing prototypes
Project management software of your dreams
Finding harmony in web development
The Soft Side of Software Development / Devoxx 2019
Production management stage 1
Georgia Tech hacking Accessibility
FFWD.PRO - It's not you, It's me (or how to avoid being coupled with a Javasc...
Webstock Workshop: Creating Simple
Create Engaging Library Experiences
Production management stage 1
The road to professional web development
Zdesign portfolio 7
Let's interface
Working with Developers
Agile in Distributed Team Setups
Thinking Like a CEO
Game Engine Terminology
Ad

More from 🎤 Hanno Embregts 🎸 (19)

PDF
Pattern Matching: Small Enhancement or Major Feature?
PDF
Pattern Matching - Small Enhancement or Major Feature? from Developer Week 202
PDF
"Will Git Be Around Forever? A List of Possible Successors" from Devoxx 2022
PDF
"Will Git Be Around Forever? A List of Possible Successors" from FrontMania 2022
PDF
Pattern Matching: Small Enhancement or Major Feature?
PDF
JCON 2021 talk - "Wil Git Be Around Forever? A List of Possible Successors"
PDF
"Will Git Be Around Forever? A List of Possible Successors" at UtrechtJUG
PDF
Pattern Matching: Small Enhancement or Major Feature? (talk from jLove 2021)
PDF
Pattern Matching: From Small Enhancement to Major Feature (talk from JavaLand...
PDF
Entering the Fourth Dimension of OCR with Tesseract
PDF
Will Git Be Around Forever? A List of Possible Successors
PDF
Entering the Fourth Dimension of OCR with Tesseract - Talk from Voxxed Days B...
PDF
QWERTY or DVORAK? Debunking the Keyboard Layout Myths -- from GeeCON 2018
PDF
Building a Spring Boot 2 Application - Ask the Audience! (from Voxxed Days Vi...
PDF
Building a Spring Boot Application - Ask the Audience! (from JVMCon 2018)
PDF
Building a Spring Boot Application - Ask the Audience!
PDF
QWERTY or DVORAK? Debunking the Keyboard Layout Myths
PDF
Building a Spring Boot Application - Ask the Audience! (from JavaLand 2017)
PDF
Migrating 25K lines of Ant scripting to Gradle
Pattern Matching: Small Enhancement or Major Feature?
Pattern Matching - Small Enhancement or Major Feature? from Developer Week 202
"Will Git Be Around Forever? A List of Possible Successors" from Devoxx 2022
"Will Git Be Around Forever? A List of Possible Successors" from FrontMania 2022
Pattern Matching: Small Enhancement or Major Feature?
JCON 2021 talk - "Wil Git Be Around Forever? A List of Possible Successors"
"Will Git Be Around Forever? A List of Possible Successors" at UtrechtJUG
Pattern Matching: Small Enhancement or Major Feature? (talk from jLove 2021)
Pattern Matching: From Small Enhancement to Major Feature (talk from JavaLand...
Entering the Fourth Dimension of OCR with Tesseract
Will Git Be Around Forever? A List of Possible Successors
Entering the Fourth Dimension of OCR with Tesseract - Talk from Voxxed Days B...
QWERTY or DVORAK? Debunking the Keyboard Layout Myths -- from GeeCON 2018
Building a Spring Boot 2 Application - Ask the Audience! (from Voxxed Days Vi...
Building a Spring Boot Application - Ask the Audience! (from JVMCon 2018)
Building a Spring Boot Application - Ask the Audience!
QWERTY or DVORAK? Debunking the Keyboard Layout Myths
Building a Spring Boot Application - Ask the Audience! (from JavaLand 2017)
Migrating 25K lines of Ant scripting to Gradle
Ad

Recently uploaded (20)

PPTX
Materi-Enum-and-Record-Data-Type (1).pptx
PPTX
Presentation of Computer CLASS 2 .pptx
PDF
Convert Thunderbird to Outlook into bulk
PDF
System and Network Administration Chapter 2
PDF
Why TechBuilder is the Future of Pickup and Delivery App Development (1).pdf
PDF
Teaching Reproducibility and Embracing Variability: From Floating-Point Exper...
PPTX
ai tools demonstartion for schools and inter college
PDF
The Role of Automation and AI in EHS Management for Data Centers.pdf
PDF
Upgrade and Innovation Strategies for SAP ERP Customers
PPTX
CRUISE TICKETING SYSTEM | CRUISE RESERVATION SOFTWARE
PDF
How to Migrate SBCGlobal Email to Yahoo Easily
PDF
How Creative Agencies Leverage Project Management Software.pdf
PDF
A REACT POMODORO TIMER WEB APPLICATION.pdf
PDF
Comprehensive Salesforce Implementation Services.pdf
PPTX
Save Business Costs with CRM Software for Insurance Agents
PPTX
How a Careem Clone App Allows You to Compete with Large Mobility Brands
PPTX
ManageIQ - Sprint 268 Review - Slide Deck
PDF
Build Multi-agent using Agent Development Kit
PDF
Digital Strategies for Manufacturing Companies
PDF
IEEE-CS Tech Predictions, SWEBOK and Quantum Software: Towards Q-SWEBOK
Materi-Enum-and-Record-Data-Type (1).pptx
Presentation of Computer CLASS 2 .pptx
Convert Thunderbird to Outlook into bulk
System and Network Administration Chapter 2
Why TechBuilder is the Future of Pickup and Delivery App Development (1).pdf
Teaching Reproducibility and Embracing Variability: From Floating-Point Exper...
ai tools demonstartion for schools and inter college
The Role of Automation and AI in EHS Management for Data Centers.pdf
Upgrade and Innovation Strategies for SAP ERP Customers
CRUISE TICKETING SYSTEM | CRUISE RESERVATION SOFTWARE
How to Migrate SBCGlobal Email to Yahoo Easily
How Creative Agencies Leverage Project Management Software.pdf
A REACT POMODORO TIMER WEB APPLICATION.pdf
Comprehensive Salesforce Implementation Services.pdf
Save Business Costs with CRM Software for Insurance Agents
How a Careem Clone App Allows You to Compete with Large Mobility Brands
ManageIQ - Sprint 268 Review - Slide Deck
Build Multi-agent using Agent Development Kit
Digital Strategies for Manufacturing Companies
IEEE-CS Tech Predictions, SWEBOK and Quantum Software: Towards Q-SWEBOK

Beware of Survivorship Bias! (conference talk at J-Fall 2019)