Briefing 58: Antoine Bouët - What do we know about intra-regional trade in Africa: findings of AATM 2019

Africa Agriculture Trade Monitor
2019
Antoine Bouët
MTID
International Food Policy Research Institute
Brussels | October 23rd, 2019

Six Chapters
 Chapter 1 – Overview
 Chapter 2 – Africa in Global Agricultural Trade
 Chapter 3 – Intra-African Trade Integration
 Chapter 4 – Competitiveness of African Agricultural Value Chains
 Chapter 5 – A Global Trading System in Turmoil? What is at Stake for
Africa
 Chapter 6 – Regional Trade Integration in Eastern and Southern
Africa

Eleven authors
 Albert Makochekanwa, University of Zimbabwe
 Antoine Bouët, IFPRI and University of Bordeaux
 Betina Dimaranan, IFPRI
 Chahir Zaki, Cairo University
 Cheickh Sadibou Fall, ISRA-Dakar
 David Laborde, IFPRI
 Fousseini Traore, IFPRI
 Greenwell Matchaya, ReSAKSS-SA
 Lionel Cosnard, University of Bordeaux
 Senakpon Fidele Ange Dedehouanou, University of Abomey Calavi
 Sunday Pierre Odjo, IFPRI

Two objectives and two requirements
Objectives
- Present recent trends
- Provide analyses of important issues
Requirements
- A unique database designed with coherence
- Policy recommendations

The political and economic context is specific…
Protectionist trends
oProtectionist threats by US administration
oTrade war between US and China
oBrexit
African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA)
oLaunched in Kigali in 2018
oLargest FTA in the world
oOther African initiatives

The African agricultural trade deficit decreases..
 Source: COMTRADE and authors’ calculations

The African share of agricultural GDP increases..
 Source: COMTRADE, WDI and authors’ calculations

Africa’s Comparative Advantages in Agriculture
Most RCAs in 2017 in agriculture are in eight categories:
 horticultural products
 fish and related products
 livestock products
 cocoa and its derivatives
 cotton and related products
 sesame
 tobacco
 and legumes

African agricultural exports are not enough diversified…
 Number of Equivalent Markets/Index of product diversification of agricultural
exports – average 2016-2017

Regional trade integration looks low, but is not measured
consistently…
 Share of intraregional trade for all products, 2005-2017

Exporting agricultural
products in Africa is so
costly…
 Source: MAcMAP-HS6 (2016);
BACI; Doing Business (2018); …

Analysis of market share changes, 2005-2017
 Decomposition of Market Share Changes, 2015-2017/2005-2007
 Source: COMTRADE and authors’ calculation

African exports remain dominated by primary products…
 African agricultural exports by destination and stage of processing;
2005-2017
 Source: COMTRADE and authors’ calculation

US Trade Wars: what is at stake for Africa?
 US trade wars has already hurt the world economy
 Evaluation of these trade wars with a CGE model
oAfrica can benefit from new market opportunities (China)
o… but the global impact on Africa will be negative if
protectionist policies are adopted by a wide range of
countries

The promises of the AfCFTA
 The AfCFTA is promising
oTrade creation
oClimbing the value chain ladder
oA safety net against worldwide protectionist attitudes
 But to be successful, the negotiations must address the
biggest impediments to trade
oNTMs
oCustom procedures
oTransportation infrastructure

Briefing 58: Antoine Bouët - What do we know about intra-regional trade in Africa: findings of AATM 2019

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