Business leaders' briefing 24.09.2014
- 1. Business Leaders’ Briefing 29 September 2014
- 2. Sarah Stewart Chief Executive, NewcastleGateshead Initiative
- 3. Karen Matthew Managing Director, John Lewis, Newcastle
- 4. Welcome and introduction Sarah Stewart, Chief Executive, NewcastleGateshead Initiative
- 6. Have the green shoots of economic recovery reached the North East? • Neil Saunders, Chief Executive, Conlumino. • Tom Warburton, Director of Investment & Development, Newcastle City Council. • Panel Q&A chaired by Paul Callaghan. – with Dianne Sharp, Regional Director, CBI & Chris Milne, Chief Economist, NELEP. • Chair’s summary.
- 7. Neil Saunders Chief Executive, Conlumino
- 8. CONLUMINO RETAIL AND THE RECOVERY CONLUMINO CONSUMER SENTIMENT TRACKER JULY 2014 PAGE 8
- 9. CONFIDENCE IS FRAGILE HOW DO YOU EXPECT THE ECONOMY TO CHANGE OVER THE NEXT SIX MONTHS? INDEX, BETTER MINUS WORSE -45.0 -43.9 -43.1 -28.0 -26.0 -28.8 -6.0 -7.3 -9.2 -3.5 -6.3 -2.0 7.1 0.7 1.4 2.6 3.3 -0.6 13.2 0.1 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14
- 10. REGIONAL CONFIDENCE ECONOMY CHANGE OVER NEXT SIX MONTHS INDEX REGION INDEX THIS YEAR UK national -1.8 South East 7.8 London 7.5 West Midlands 6.7 East Midlands 3.2 Northern Ireland -0.1 East Anglia -1.7 North West -3.7 South West -4.6 Wales -8.2 Yorkshire & Humberside -8.7 North East -15.8 Scotland -16.0
- 11. INCOME GROWTH IS WEAK DISPOSABLE INCOME GROWTH YEAR-ON-YEAR PERCENTAGE GROWTH 1.1 1.2 -0.8 -1.1 -0.7 -0.2 0.1 0.6 1.1 0.9 1.1 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
- 12. RETAIL IS IN GROWTH 4.1 3.9 3.2 2.6 1.6 1.0 0.8 0.4 -0.5 -8.0 Health, beauty Food & Grocery Clothing Total Homewares Furniture, flooring Electricals DIY & Gardening Other Home Ent RETAIL SPENDING GROWTH RATES FOR 2014 PERCENT
- 13. RETAIL IS IN GROWTH RETAIL SPENDING GROWTH RATES FOR 2014 BY REGION PERCENT 3.6 2.9 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.1 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.5 1.4 1.2 London South East East Anglia South West UK Yorkshire West Midlands Scotland East Midlands Wales North West Northern Ireland North East
- 14. RETAIL GROWTH TRENDS RETAIL SPENDING GROWTH RATES OVER PERIODS AVERAGE ANNUAL PERCENTAGE 7.0% 4.5% 1.9% ? 1983-1992 1993-2002 2003-2012 2013-2022
- 15. GOLDEN DRIVERS OF GROWTH Easy credit and low(ish) debt Stable and low interest rates Rapidly rising house prices Stable economy Easy to live beyond income growth Low mortgage repayments Mortgage equity withdrawal Solid consumer sentiment
- 16. ARE NOW TARNISHED Easy credit and low(ish) debt Stable and low interest rates Rapidly rising house prices Stable economy Easy to live beyond income growth Low mortgage repayments Mortgage equity withdrawal Solid consumer sentiment High debt Low, but rising Slowly rising house prices Improving but uncertain outlook Living within means Higher mortgage Repaying mortgage debt Soft and choppy
- 17. INTEREST RATES WHAT CONSUMERS THINK WILL HAPPEN TO RATES OVER SIX MONTHS PERCENT, 2013 TOP AND 2014 BOTTOM RISE STABLE FALL 28.9% 66.1% 53.8% 44.1% 5.0% 2.1%
- 18. IMPACT OF RATE RISES HOUSEHOLDS WITH OVER 30% OF DISPOSABLE INCOME ON REPAYMENTS PERCENTAGE 7.7% 8.6% 10.2% 14.9% RATES RISE TO 1.0% RATES STAY AT 0.5% RATES RISE TO 1.5% RATES RISE TO 2.0%
- 19. RETAIL GROWTH TRENDS RETAIL SPENDING GROWTH RATES OVER PERIODS AVERAGE ANNUAL PERCENTAGE 7.0% 4.5% 1.9% 2.6% 1983-1992 1993-2002 2003-2012 2013-2022
- 20. RETAIL SPEND FORECAST RETAIL SPENDING GROWTH PERCENT 3.0 3.6 2.5 1.3 1.5 1.1 0.9 1.7 2.6 3.1 2.6 2.9 2.2 2.4 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
- 21. THE CHALLENGE FOR RETAIL RETAIL IN 2013 WAS WORTH £316.7BN INDULGENT IMPORTANT ESSENTIAL 54.1% 16.7% 29.2%
- 22. CONSEQUENCES ECONOMY IMPROVING COMPETITIVE FORCES STRONG WINNERS AND LOSERS DEMOCRATIC INNOVATION AND INSPIRATION
- 23. CONLUMINO Twitter: @neilretail Email: [email protected] CONLUMINO CONSUMER SENTIMENT TRACKER JULY 2014 PAGE 23
- 24. Tom Warburton Director of Investment & Development, Newcastle City Council
- 25. Helping make Newcastle a Working City
- 26. Overview of North East LEP area
- 27. Number of businesses in the UK private sector per 10,000 adults, start of 2013 Taken from BIS (https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/sy stem/uploads/attachment_data/file/254552/1 3-92-business-population-estimates-2013- stats-release-4.pdf)
- 28. Our approach • Supporting business and enterprise • An enabling infrastructure • Investment for growth and jobs • Employment and skills • Working with others – partners in city, NELEP, core cities, OneNorth (transport investment)
- 29. Looking to the future Maintaining pace with the expected UK recovery over the next four years, would point to an increase in jobs in Newcastle of about 6,000. Source: Office for budget responsibility and NCC calculations
- 32. Not just city centre • Investment in crane, quay, sites and road • Improving broadband across city, including vouchers for superfast • New jobs in Longbenton • Tech sector – Campus North, Dynamo • International promotion
- 33. Paul Callaghan Chair, NewcastleGateshead Initiative
- 34. Panel Q&A session • Neil Saunders, Chief Executive, Conlumino. • Tom Warburton, Director of Investment & Development, Newcastle City Council. • Dianne Sharp, Regional Director, CBI. • Chris Milne, Chief Economist, NELEP.
- 35. Summary Paul Callaghan, Chair, NewcastleGateshead Initiative
- 36. Thank you
- 37. Business Leaders’ Briefing 29 September 2014