Challenge of over-population in Urban India- 11-7-25.docx
- 1. Emerging Issues, Challenges , Options and Opportunities for Planning, Development and Management of Sustainable Urban Settlements in India- Rapid/Massive Growth of Population *Jit Kumar Gupta ** [email protected] Challenge 1- Uncontrolled Population Growth Source; time.com Population growth continues to impact our planet in profound ways. With world population projected to reach 10.3 billion this century, understanding the causes, consequences and potential solutions of population growth is more critical than ever- population matters
- 2. Uncontrolled Population Growth; Growth of human population and multiplications of human beings is considered a normal, natural and an ongoing process. But rapid, uncontrolled and unsustainable growth of human population is considered a major threat to both humanity, communities, resources and planet earth. Looking globally, growth rate of human beings has been getting accelerated over a period of time, with large additions being recoded, on continued basis. However, population growth has been found to be at variance, across communities, states, regions and nations. Lower order of population growth rate has been recorded among the developed nations, leading to only small addition to local population on annual basis. On the contrary, in case of developing countries, human numbers have been growing, following a geometric pattern, leading to rapid growth of population of such countries. In addition, communities/nations having high income/literacy/healthcare are recording lower population growth rate, when compared with nations having less income, low literacy and poor health infrastructures. Rural areas record higher growth rate when compared with urban counterpart, Asia and African continents, are known for recording not only high rate of population growth, but also house major proportion of global human population Based on available data, first billion human population on the planet earth, was recorded in the year 1804, whereas in the year 1926, the global population stood at two billion. It had taken just 122 years, to double the population in size. 99 years later( year 2025), the population multiplied more than fourfold , recording human numbers over eight billion people. Given, the current rate of growth, nations are projected to add another quarter population in the next 40 years, reaching 10 billion mark in 2060s. With human numbers, crossing 10 billion mark , it will be critical to understand the causes which have led to rapid population growth; consequences it will have for the communities, nations and planet earth and potential solutions , which can be effectively leveraged to limit the number of human beings to a sustainable level. Looking holistically, the most challenging and undefined part of the sustainable development in India, has its roots in the rapid and massive increase in human population, both urban and rural. In Indian context, it has been estimated that, on an average every one second, a human being is added, and after every 3 second somebody is getting decimated. In conclusion, on an average, there is one addition to the human population@ every 2 seconds . According to the Census 2011, India on an average, added 18.1 million people every year during the decade 2001-2011. Based on Worldometer’s elaboration of the latest United Nations data, the current population of India is placed at 1,462,961,992 as of Saturday, June 7, 2025 , with population density of 492 per Km² (1,275 people per
- 3. mi². Globally, India is ranked number one in the list of countries considering human population. India is said to hold 17.78% of the total world population, which means every sixth global person is resident of India. Genesis of Population Growth Looking at the current pattern and practices, and as per studies made by Newsletter; Population matters, prime reasons for rapid growth of population in India, can be attributed to; Prevailing low rate of literacy. Prevailing high fertility rates in certain regions and communities. Projected high fertility rate in future also (Image 1) Prevailing rate of economic poverty Lack of appreciation of the distinct advantages of having a small and compact family Prevailing pattern of joint living, housing large human population. Focus on having large family, with preference going for having at least one male child in family Population growth led by population momentum, having more people in the reproductive age than before. Even with lower fertility rates , the sheer number of people able to have children makes population growth unavoidable. Prevailing social practices/ legal framework; permitting multiple marriages/ wives for certain communities. Inadequate access to family planning facilities and lower order of education Limited access to contraceptive methods and education about family planning, leading to unintended pregnancies. Limited political support/agenda to reduce family size. Lack of disincentives to have large family. High rate of infant mortality Considering children as a gift/blessing of nature. Prevailing rate of high poverty. Lack of availability of source for entertainment. Making addition to family, without caring for their education, healthcare etc Considering large family an asset and solution for generating more income through unskilled employment.
- 4. Image1,Current and Projected Fertility Rates in most populated countries; Source; UN Consequences of Rapid Population Growth; Number and quality of human beings living in any geographical region, holds both positive and negative connotations for communities and nations. Considering the fact that human beings remain major consumers of resources and energy besides generators of large waste, accordingly, large human population will hold major implications in terms of consumption of resources, provision of infrastructures and services essential for human living. With regard to quality, high quality population is considered an asset, whereas poor human quality human beings are known as a liability , posing greatest and gravest challenge and threat to the nations, its resources, growth, development and quality of human living. Holding large population and meeting its basic requirement of food, clothing, shelter, healthcare, education, skilling and employment poses the greatest challenge to the rational growth and development, in the Indian context, unless population growth is rationalised and brought within sustainable limits, commensurate with available resources. Unsustainable population growth, presents several significant challenges that invariably impact the environment, society and the national/global economy. Faced with large additions to human population, India as a nation, will perpetually face problems of rational growth and development, of both urban and rural settlements. Rapid population growth, uncontrolled urbanization and unsustainable consumption patterns remain major drivers of large carbon emissions, climate change and worsening ecosystem Major implications, challenges and consequences faced by India , due to increased pressure of human population can be enumerated in terms of;
- 5. Creating large variety of physical, social, economic and environmental challenges. Large increase in urban population due to increased population, higher level of urbanisatoion and rapid migration. Increase in demand for urban land, to support expansion of urban areas, due to increased urban population, Large scale diversion of agriculture/forest land to non-agricultural uses, to accommodate and cater to the human needs of living, working, Cobs, transportation of urban population and producing food for increased human beings. Large scale deforestation, leading to loss of biodiversity, increased carbon emissions and climate change . Increased demand for resources involving land, water and energy, leading to widening gap between demand and supply. Large scale depletion of conventional/non-conventional resources, leading to acute shortages of fresh water, food, energy etc., Rapid environmental degradation in most populated regions of the country leading to climate change and widespread habitat destruction Promoting social inequality and poverty with more people competing for limited available resources, Facing problems of overcrowding of people in buildings and buildings on land. Creating problem of poor sanitation, due to consumption of large resources and generation of enormous waste. Induction of large population of mechanized and fossil fuel driven vehicles, creating problems of ease of mobility, traffic and transportation. Creating problems of large scale environmental pollution Mushrooming large number of slums and shanty colonies in urban areas. Increasing income gap between communities leading to creating social tensions, increased conflict and instability within and between nations. Rising land values, making city unaffordable for majority of urban inhabitants. Creating poor quality of life for majority of urban residents. Making cities less productive, less sustainable and lowering quality of life. Making human settlements more congested , less qualitative and less productive. Managing population growth Based on the projections made by the UNDP, world population is projected to reach 10.3 billion at the close of this century, with India and China having about one third of global share of population . India recently overtook China to become the most populous country in the world. Projections made reveal that, Indian population is projected to be growing positively until 2062 when it will peak at 1.7 billion, thereafter population will
- 6. start declining and is estimated to be 1.5091 billion at the end of current century. Despite the fact that birth rates in the India have been on decline since 1960s, but still it is placed at a relatively high rate of 2 births per woman. All this calls for evolving policies, programs , strategies and options which would help in managing population within sustainable limits . Managing growth of human population and making it rational also assumes importance for the reason, planet earth being finite, has finite availability of resources for the human consumption and accordingly can cater to limited human numbers only. Having only 2.24% of global land for housing 17.78% global population, India faces a daunting challenge in managing its human population, pattern of urabanisation and urban growth. Looking at the multiple dimensions , addressing population growth would require a multi-faceted approach that involves global cooperation and the implementation of practical/global good solutions. Globally, education has been valued for empowering people to make informed decisions about family size, still it remains conspicuous by its absence or inaccessible to many, particularly in rural areas. However, skilling and education remains the most potent tools to manage uncontrolled growth of population. In addition, going by the policy norm of one child family, can also help India in limiting the size of the family and growth of population. In addition, empowering rural areas by adopting the policy of Regional Planning, can help in rationalising distribution of population between urban and Rural areas. In India, Kerala, as a state, remains the role model of limiting the size of state population, based on achieving goal of 100% literacy. In India, majority of population is housed in states of Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Orissa and west Bengal, where literacy and level of urbanisation remains low. Majority of these states were part of once called, ‘Bimaru States of India’. These states have been the major source of population growth and rural-urban migration. In order to limit population growth and out-migration, these states need to be empowered by educating communities in terms of literacy, skilling and making them understand the context and distinct advantages of limiting the size of the family. Governments can also adopt the mechanism of providing incentives to the families opting for one/ two child norm and discouraging/de-incentivising families having more than two children. Having a uniform civil code for entire country, restricting multiple marriages, can also help in limiting the size of the family in the Indian context. However, nature also has role in limiting population. Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic impacted almost every nation and profoundly affected every member of a society. While the WHO's worldwide confirmed death toll of 7,077,725 persons. The WHO also estimates that there were a massive 14.9 million "excess deaths" associated with the virus in 2020 and 2021 alone. The figure includes both confirmed COVID-19 deaths and indirect ones caused by "the pandemic's impact on
- 7. health systems and society.India recorded a total of 5,33,623 deaths, third highest globally after America and Brazil. Population growth remains a complex issue that requires both serious attention and focussed action by all the stakeholders in general and para-statal agencies in particular. . Limiting population growth can be achieved through positive, empowering, choice- based actions which improve people’s lives and bring multiple other benefits. Growth of Population in India can be rationally managed by; Considering trends of population growth in a country are impacted by the birth policies of a country, accordingly, India needs to define its policy of managing population, rationally and realistically. Sourcing international collaboration for addressing global population issues, remains critical, since many challenges hold cross national implications. Promoting literacy and enhancing education, particularly for women and girls can help in reducing population growth Putting in place and implementing effective strategies through family planning, will always remain relevant for managing population. Increasing access to contraceptives and reproductive health services are valued for empowering women to avoid unwanted pregnancies. Empowering individuals to make informed choices about the number and timing of their children and reducing fertility rates can lead to reducing human numbers. Empowering individuals to make informed decisions, always contribute to economic standing and reduces fertility rates at individual level. Advocating smaller families, by improving healthcare access and promoting sustainable development are known to limit population growth. Creating opportunities for higher earning by female population, by investing in skilling , educating and creating safe work environment, leads to lower population growth rate. Rationalising size of the household and moving away from joint family has distinct role in limiting population growth. Managing growth of population, will require effectively managing the future trends of three main demographic components involving; fertility, mortality, and migration Studies made globally indicates, that India’s population is projected to grow throughout the century at a rate which will go on changing. Further, studies have also revealed pattern of population growth will remain closely and positively connected with prevailing level of socio-economic growth, environmental protection, healthcare, education, skilling etc. Considering the fact that with large population base, coupled with having limited land resource and consuming large natural resources, India would need sound and focussed policies. to rationally address the unique challenges posed by unsustainable population growth. Understanding growth dynamics and future trends of populations in different cities, regions and states in India, will require detailed
- 8. study/analysis, and will remain crucial to empower India, for achieving the agenda defined by Sustainable Development Goals. Limiting population and making it more qualitative should remain the development agenda of all the local/ state/national governments. Defining a comprehensive, focussed and targeted nation policy providing for rationalising population growth and its distribution in rural/urban segments based on equity ; skilling and making entire human population more qualitative & productive; will hold the key to make India global leader in economic growth besides making urban growth equitable, sustainable, inclusive, safe and resilient. Failure to control population growth will have far reaching implications for promoting rational growth and development of urban and rural India. Image; Uncontrolled growth of Urban India; Source; e360.yale.ed References; Danan Gu, Kirill Andreev , Matthew E Dupre; Major Trends in Population Growth Around the World ; CCDC Weekly https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC8393076/ Marcus Lu; Population Projections; The World’s Top Countries 2100; June 16, 2025; https://www.visualcapitalist.com/population-projections-the-worlds-top- countries-by-2100/ Author; Jit Kumar Gupta Former, Director, College of Architecture, IET Bhaddal, Punjab Mail ;[email protected]