Internal Migration in China
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This document summarizes internal labor migration trends in China. It finds that the share of migrant workers without local residency rights ("non-hukou" migrants) is significant across industries in Wuhan, ranging from 40-56%. Nationwide, the floating population of internal migrants grew rapidly from 82 million in 1982 to over 140 million in 2003. By 2020, China's urban population is projected to reach 65% of the total population, around 950 million people, with 80% of urban growth coming from net rural-urban migration of around 20 million people per year. This rapid urbanization will create challenges around employment, infrastructure/housing, education, poverty and social stability.
Internal Migration in China
- 1. Internal Labor Migration in China: Trends, Geographical Distribution and Policies Kam Wing Chan Department of Geography University of Washington Seattle [email protected] January 2008
- 4. Wuhan: Share of Migrant Workers (Non-Hukou) (2000 Census Data) Industry % of employment in that industry Manufacturing 43 Construction 56 Social Services 50 Real Estate and Housing 40 Wuhan City (7 city districts) 46
- 5. Urban recreation consumption rose at 14% p.a in 1995-2005
- 6. Topics • Hukou System and Migration Statistics • Migration Trends • Geography • Policies
- 7. (The Household Registration System, 户口制度) • Formally set up in 1958 • Divided population/society into two major types of households: rural and urban • Differential treatments of rural and urban residents • Controlled by the police and other govt departments • Basically an “internal passport system” • Currently, the system serves as a benefit eligibility system; a tool of institutional exclusion than controlling geographical mobility • The population of a city is divided into “local” and “outside” population.
- 8. Ad
- 9. An unlicensed school in Beijing MIGRANT CHILDREN FALL THROUGH THE CRACKS
- 10. Two types of internal migrants • Hukou Migrants: migrants with local residency rights • Non-hukou Migrant: migrants without local residency rights – also called: non-hukou population, or more generally, “floating population”
- 12. Wuhan: Share of Non-Hukou Migrant Workers (2000 Census Data) Industry % of Employment Manufacturing 43 Construction 56 Social Services 50 Real Estate and Housing 40 Wuhan City (7 city districts) 46
- 13. Trends
- 14. Migration Trends: Floating Population, 1982-2003 (Estimates in Millions) 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 1985 1988 1992 1994 1997 1999 2003
- 16. Level of Urbanization, 1990-2005 20 25 30 35 40 45 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 %ofTotalPopulation
- 17. Figure 3 Urban Growth and Migration Rates 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 1990 1995 2000 PercentofUrbanPopulation Urban Growth Rate Urban Natural Increase Rates Net Urban In- migration Rate Source: Chan and Hu (2003) True rural- urban migration
- 19. Geography
- 23. The 30 Largest Inter-provincial Migration Flows, 1995-2000
- 26. Policies 0.20 0.25 0.30 0.35 0.40 0.45 0.50 0.55 0.60 0.65 0.70 1990 1995 2000a 2000b 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 CVdf CVdj Group 1 Group 2 Notes: CV’s for 1990, 1995 and 2000a are based on old GDP data in 1990 constant prices; those for 2000b-2006 are based on new GDP data in 2000 constant prices. The two series are not directly comparable. Interprovincial Inequality, 1990–2006
- 28. Urban Growth Scenarios (Population in Millions) 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 National Population assuming 0.7% growth per year 1265.8 1306.3 1352.7 1400.7 1450.4 Population Increase per year 8.1 9.3 9.6 9.9 URBAN SCENARIO 1 assuming 3.5% growth per year Urban Population 458.6 561.6 667.0 792.2 940.9 Urban % 36.2 43.0 49.3 56.6 64.9 Urban Population Increase per year 20.6 21.1 25.0 29.7 Urban Natural Increase (0.55%) per year 2.5 3.1 3.7 4.4 Net Rural-urban Migration per year 18.1 18.0 21.3 25.3 URBAN SCENARIO 2 assuming 4% growth p.a. in 2005-2010, and 3.5% p.a. after Urban Population 458.6 561.6 683.3 811.5 963.8 Urban % 36.2 43.0 50.5 57.9 66.5 Urban Population Increase per year 20.6 24.3 25.6 30.5 Urban Natural Increase (0.55%) per year 2.5 3.1 3.8 4.5 Net Rural-urban Migration per year 18.1 21.2 21.8 25.9 RURAL SCENARIO 1 Scenario 1 Rural Population 807.3 744.7 685.7 608.5 509.5 Rural % 63.8 57.0 50.7 43.4 35.1 Rural Population Increase per year -12.5 -11.8 -15.4 -19.8 RURAL SCENARIO 2 Rural Population 807.3 744.7 669.4 589.2 486.6 Rural % 63.8 57.0 49.5 42.1 33.5 Rural Population Increase per year -12.5 -15.1 -16.0 -20.5 Known Forecast
- 29. Main points: • Urban Population – 2005: 43% (560M); – 2010: 50% (675M) – 2020: 65% (950M) • Increase of about 400M in the next 15 years • 80% from net rural-urban migration and reclassification, about 20M per year 200-250 peasant migrants by 2020 Urban Growth Scenarios, 2005-2020 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 PopulationinMillions Nationa; urban2 urban1
- 30. Implications of Urban Growth • Employment? – Jobs for the 150 M unemployed rural labor – Many urban jobs currently off-limit to migrants
- 31. Implications of Urban Growth • Infrastructure and housing – affordable housing? – education for kids? – who pays? financing?
- 32. Implications of Urban Growth • Urban poverty, public safety and social stability – wage arrears, unfair compensation for land expropriated, etc – 200 M permanent urban underclass? – protests and riots
- 33. Thank you!