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Climate Change and a
Sustainable Earth
By
John J. Qu and Raymond P. Motha

Climate Change and a Sustainable Earth
By John J. Qu and Raymond P. Motha
This book first published 2022
Cambridge Scholars Publishing
Lady Stephenson Library, Newcastle upon Tyne, NE6 2PA, UK
British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data
A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library
Copyright © 2022 by John J. Qu and Raymond P. Motha
All rights for this book reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced,
stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means,
electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without
the prior permission of the copyright owner.
ISBN (10): 1-5275-8044-X
ISBN (13): 978-1-5275-8044-2

TABLE OF CONTENTS
Foreword .................................................................................................. vii
Preface....................................................................................................... ix
Chapter 1 .................................................................................................... 1
Introduction
Part I: The Basics Principles of Climate Change
Chapter 2 .................................................................................................. 16
Indicators of Climate Change and Climate Observations
Chapter 3 .................................................................................................. 48
Physical Foundations of Climate Change
Chapter 4 .................................................................................................. 71
Global General Circulations and Teleconnections
Part II: Climate Change and the Earth System
Chapter 5 .................................................................................................. 96
The Atmosphere
Chapter 6 ................................................................................................ 112
The Hydrosphere
Chapter 7 ................................................................................................ 149
The Cryosphere
Chapter 8 ................................................................................................ 169
The Biosphere
Chapter 9 ................................................................................................ 212
The Earth System: A Nexus Approach to Human Activity

Table of Contents
vi
Part III: Climate Impacts on Earth’s Sustainable Resources
Chapter 10 .............................................................................................. 234
Climate Impacts on Water Sustainability
Chapter 11 .............................................................................................. 275
Climate Impacts on Energy Sustainability
Chapter 12 .............................................................................................. 301
Climate Impacts on Agricultural Sustainability
Chapter 13 .............................................................................................. 349
Climate Change Impacts on Human Health
Chapter 14 .............................................................................................. 381
Climate Change and the Sustainable Earth Nexus
Part IV: Challenges and Opportunities for a Sustainable Earth
Chapter 15 .............................................................................................. 414
The Climate Nexus View from Space
Chapter 16 .............................................................................................. 434
Innovative Technologies for Monitoring Climate Change

FOREWORD
The challenges to human enterprise on this planet of climate change and
sustainability are now so pervasive and imminent that it is everybody’s
business to know and do something about it. Understanding what we are
actively doing to ourselves, and our planet is a prerequisite to responsible
citizenship. This textbook by two impressive scholars, Dr. John J. Qu and
Dr. Raymond Motha, intends to fill this need.
It is no small task to provide such a textbook. It encompasses a multiplicity
of disciplines, from basic science to applied social, political, and economic
science, and yet it must be written in a way that is accessible to any
undergraduate. Living organisms and the distortion of the great global
cycles of carbon, nitrogen, and more can no longer be ignored and left to be
the concerns of future generations. Just to lay out the subject matter is
daunting but so is presenting it in a way that is eminently teachable.
Professors Qu and Motha, who are extremely distinguished scholars and
masterful in the classroom, have both managed to do just that.
For far too long climate change has been offered through a physical science
lens—this is essential to understanding the challenge (e.g., the role of
greenhouse gases in trapping radiant heat). It is, however, insufficient in
itself because humans are living organisms that have collectively disturbed
the basic equilibrium of this planet’s ecology.
At the heart of this textbook is the lesson that our planet does not work solely
as a physical system, but rather as a linked biological and physical system.
This has always been true, beginning with the origin of life with blue-green
bacteria oxygenating the atmosphere and making higher life-forms possible.
It is even truer today, with a multiplicity of living systems, from oceans to
rainforests and even human-modified ones like agroecosystems, all affecting
the environment locally and globally.
The fundamental perceptual problem is that individual actions that may not
seem remarkable in themselves can have major impacts when multiplied by
the near eight billion people alive today.

Foreword
viii
The 17 United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) address
sustainability collectively, but it is worrisome that the three goals
representing the environment per se (one regarding the climate and two on
biodiversity: life on land, and life in water) still tend to play second fiddle
to the others. It needs to be recognized that these three SDGs are not just
critical elements of the Earth system that need protection, but that they
contain within them opportunities to address the sustainability challenge
beyond restoring the baseline conditions. Notably, human creativity has the
capacity to devise biological solutions and opportunities that can enhance
human well-being without exacerbating the global sustainability challenge.
This is a lot to cover in a single textbook, but it is all interlinked and essential
to foster the importance of climate and sustainability of Earth. Writing this
textbook was no simple task. May the students of today learn from it and,
in their life trajectories, act upon it so that a future edition will encompass
some of their solutions.
Dr. Thomas E. Lovejoy (08/22/1941-12/25/2021)
University Professor of Environmental Science and Policy
College of Science, George Mason University
Member of the National Academy of Sciences, USA
Authors’ Note: We are truly saddened by the passing of Dr. Lovejoy on 25
December 2021. Dr. Lovejoy was a world-renowned expert in the field of
environmental science. In fact, he has been referred to as “the Father of
Biodiversity”. He provided inspiration, encouragement, and support to the
authors of this book. We are gratefully indebted to this compassionate
scientist.

PREFACE
Climate change is one of the great challenges for natural resources and
human habitability on Planet Earth. According to the World Meteorological
Organization (WMO), climate change refers to a statistically significant
variation in either the mean state of the climate or in its variability,
persisting for an extended period (typically decades or longer). The
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment
Report (AR6) entitled “Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis”
was released on 9 August 2021. The IPCC AR6 report is based on the latest
physical understanding of the Earth’s climate system and explains the
current state of the world’s climate. It also addresses future climate
possibilities and suggests that we need to take urgent climate action to tackle
climate change emergencies and to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to
ensure a sustainable Earth. Measures of climate change include extreme
changes in temperature, precipitation, and wind patterns among others.
Climate change can be associated with human-induced changes caused by
fossil fuel burning and aerosol pollution, or by alterations of the Earth’s
landscape, such as transforming carbon-storing forests into farmland or
urbanized centers. Climate change can also occur due to natural causes such
as alternating cold periods of ice ages and warm interglacial periods.
Climate change influences the Earth system, and its impacts on natural
resources are among the greatest challenges that threaten our sustainable
Earth. The Earth system can adapt to the challenges and consequences of
anthropogenic and natural changes in the atmosphere, hydrosphere,
biosphere, and cryosphere provided that a coordinated effort focuses on
solutions to environmental degradation, loss of biodiversity, and resource
sustainability. A multidisciplinary approach that combines the principles of
changing climate with the specialized fields of the water-energy-food-health
(WEFH) nexus is needed to examine how the Earth operates as an
interconnected, integrated system. This textbook focuses on the understanding
of basic scientific principles of climate change, their interactions with the
Earth system, and the impacts and consequences on the nexus of Earth
sustainability. The aim is to help provide insight into the development of
long-term strategies to cope with the resulting environmental, societal, and
economic impacts by utilizing innovative technologies for future
sustainability.

Preface
x
There are numerous textbooks and reference books that provide extensive
details of climate change and their impact on different sectors, such as water
and food security. However, there are very few books that focus on causes
and effects of climate change on the sustainable Earth. The impacts of
climate change on the Earth’s interlinked natural resources and human
health concerns are crucial to a sustainable future. This textbook provides
students, researchers and decision makers with a thorough introduction to
the challenges and opportunities of the climate and Earth sustainability
nexus. This textbook examines climate change issues affecting the Earth
system from a holistic perspective. Each component will be reviewed to
gain insight and understanding of causes and effects. The unique and
unintended consequences on socio-economic sectors of society will be
discussed. The synergistic opportunities and strategies can then be highlighted
to help address natural resource security and sustainable development for
the Earth system. The book reviews the physical foundations of climate
change and aims to present a scientific discussion of climate change impacts
on natural resource security, ecosystem preservation and sustainable
development. It does not present arguments for or against socio-political
interpretations. The goal is to present a factual set of scientific information
for students to better understand the issues and to help them make their own
decisions on potential courses of action. Portions of this manuscript have
been taught to graduate and undergraduate students studying a range of
course curricula for their degree programs.
During the preparation of this textbook, we use some important data and
information from the IPCC, WMO, the Food and Agriculture Organization
(FAO), UN Environment Programme (UNEP) of the United Nations, the
National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), the National
Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the United States
Geological Survey (USGS), the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA),
and the European Space Agency (ESA), and many more. To acknowledge
their contributions, we list their webpages and QR (Quick Response) codes
in the textbook. We hope that students and readers can obtain the newest
data and information on climate change and sustainable development from
this textbook.
This book is intended to broaden the academic program of studies for a wide
range of students due to the multidisciplinary nature of climate change
impacts on society. This book can be used as a textbook for introduction
level courses of college graduate, undergraduate and high school basic
science programs. This textbook can be offered as a course at liberal arts
colleges, technical institutes and universities, and international organizations,

Climate Change and a Sustainable Earth xi
such as WMO, FAO, UNEP and other international institutions that offer
educational programs for a wide range of specialists. It can also be offered
and tailored for both online learning programs and specialized training
modules through technical institutes. The contents of this textbook deal with
past, current and future scientific evidence and facts, and provide ideas and
considerations for future analysis of climate change impacts. The
organizational structure of this textbook focuses on the Earth system
approach to climate change. This approach will expand in coverage and
detail in the future as new and more comprehensive scientific information
evolves. This textbook is tailored generally to students who are enrolled in
a range of multidisciplinary science programs, such as atmospheric and
environmental science, biology and ecosystems, hydrological, energy and
agricultural sciences, and natural resource management. It can also be an
elective for students in liberal arts, socioeconomics, and educational course
programs to enhance their knowledge base. This textbook is intended to
broaden the academic program of studies for a wide range of students
because of the multidisciplinary nature of climate change impacts on
society. Climate change issues are in the public news frequently. We believe
that there is a greater need to provide academic program courses to a wide
student audience with the aim of enhancing knowledge of the issues,
exposing students to the challenges that face them, and promoting greater
opportunities to meet these challenges.
We are very grateful to colleagues, staff and family who have provided
invaluable support in the preparation of this book. Our publisher, Adam
Rummens and Cambridge Scholars Publishing have offered invaluable
guidance throughout this endeavor, allowing us to concentrate on the
manuscript preparations. We are grateful to Thomas Lovejoy, world-
renowned scholar and University professor, and the Institute for a
Sustainable Earth (ISE) team including Leah Nichols and Judit Ungvari for
their encouragement and support for writing this manuscript. We wish to
thank Zhiliang Zhu and Xianjun Hao for their scientific and technical
advice, suggestions, and feedback on the manuscript that enhanced the
quality of the publication. We are thankful to Carolyn Qu and Wendy Sun,
who designed some important figures for the textbook. We are also thankful
to the faculty, staff, and graduate students including Szandra Peter and
Bradley Gay at the Department of Geography and Geoinformation Science
(GGS), College of Science, George Mason University for assistance in draft
preparation. We want to express our appreciation to James Baron, Matthew
Ty Miller and YoonJi Kim for their rigorous editorial reviews and revisions
that contributed immensely to the final manuscript. We are grateful to Lina
Hao and Jenna Cai who provided important comments and suggestions from

Preface
xii
high school students’ perspective during their summer intern period.
Finally, we express our sincere gratitude and appreciation to our families
who gave their unending support and patience to us as we prepared the
manuscripts for publication.

CHAPTER 1
INTRODUCTION
Learning Objectives:
1. Describe the major objectives and structure of this textbook.
2. Explain climate change and its impact on sustainable Earth.
3. Learn basic principles of climate change.
4. List the major components of the Earth system.
5. Describe the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).
6. Learn about climate change and its impact on natural resource
security.
7. Explain the water–energy–food–health (WEFH) nexus.
8. Identify the climate risks and their impacts on sustainable Earth.
1.1 Introduction
Climate change and its impacts on natural resources are among the greatest
challenges that threaten Earth. This textbook focuses on the understanding
of basic scientific principles of climate change to help develop long-term
strategies to cope with the resulting broader environmental, societal, and
economic impacts. A multidisciplinary approach combines the principles of
changing climate with the specialized fields of water, energy, food, and
human health (WEFH). The WEFH nexus plays a key role in how the Earth
operates as an interconnected, integrated system. The Earth system can
adapt to the challenges and consequences of anthropogenic and natural
changes in the atmosphere, hydrosphere, biosphere, and cryosphere
provided that a coordinated effort focuses on solutions to environmental
degradation, loss of biodiversity, and resource sustainability. The goal of
this textbook is to take a holistic approach to the examination of climate
change issues that affect the Earth system. Each component will be
reviewed to gain insight and understanding of causes and effects. The
synergistic opportunities and strategies can then be highlighted to help
address natural resource security and sustainable development for the Earth
system.

Chapter 1
2
Why is this book important? Life exists on the Earth system, which is unique
in our solar system. Life may exist elsewhere in our galaxy of solar systems
or in our universe; however, the fact is clear that there are some simple basic
reasons why Earth supports life. Water in all three states (i.e., liquid, solid,
and gas) is abundant on Earth, which is a necessity of life. While all planets
receive light in a unique orientation as they rotate around the Sun, the Earth
spins on its axis that allows each side of the planet to receive a favorable
amount of daily sunlight that is utilized effectively to support plant life. The
Earth’s atmosphere is vital to life. The protective ozone layer at high
altitudes of the stratosphere absorbs most of the harmful ultraviolet radiation
emitted from the Sun but allows the beneficial sunlight to sustain life on
Earth. The Earth’s atmosphere is composed of the right combination of
breathable gases. Most notably, oxygen is required for life. It is present in
the atmosphere as well as in water, and plant life on Earth is a source of
additional oxygen that is released to the atmosphere. Finally, Earth has
favorable climate conditions suitable to sustain life. While climate extremes
have normally occurred throughout Earth’s history, nature has found a way
to provide a return to a more normal equilibrium over the course of Earth’s
evolution. In recent decades, climate extremes and climate change have
become more pronounced and have raised significant concerns among the
scientific community. In fact, ongoing heat waves, droughts, and other
extreme climate events around the world are causing significant water
shortages, electrical power generation problems, crop failure, and loss of
human life. The causes and effects of many of these climate anomalies will
be discussed in this book. What is becoming increasingly evident is that
there needs to be a holistic approach to the understanding of both the
problem and the solution to the problem. This book hopes to direct attention
to this approach.
The textbook is divided into four main sections. The first section is a review
of the fundamentals of climate and its changing state. This includes the basic
concepts involved in climate observations, trends, extreme events, and
climate change indicators. It also examines the physical principles and
global teleconnections that define the climate problem. The purpose of this
section is to highlight important themes related to local, regional, and global
impacts of climate change on the Earth system. The second section reviews
the Earth system and its components. Each of these spheres has both
common and unique features that are vulnerable to climate change. The
third section then delves into climate change impacts on the sustainability
of natural resources and human health, which is vulnerable to resource
availability and utilization. Climate change has significant consequences on
the WEFH sectors of society. The crucial aspects of sustainability under

Introduction 3
changing climate conditions are discussed in this section. These sectors of
society can be seen as interconnected through climate and resource
sustainability when viewed from a holistic, or nexus, approach. Finally, this
book examines the future challenges and opportunities that satellite
applications and innovative technologies, such as artificial intelligence and
machine learning, offer to mitigate the impact of climate change on the
Earth system and to develop adaptation strategies for a sustainable future.
Climate change has significant influences on natural resources such as
water, food, and energy. It also affects the health, safety, and welfare of
human society. Together, the pressures of climate change on the security of
the WEFH nexus create serious concern for the sustainability of our Earth.
Figure 1.1 illustrates the nexus concept of global climate change, the Earth
system, and the WEFH nexus.
In Figure 1.1, climate change is shown as the core of the problem that planet
Earth must deal with. That is not to say there are no other issues posing
serious threats to the planet. However, this text focuses on the specific issue
of the impacts of climate change on the Earth system. Thus, the first ring in
Figure 1.1 illustrates the five spheres that make up the Earth system, namely
the atmosphere, hydrosphere, cryosphere, biosphere, and geosphere. The
problems posed by climate change directly affect the first four spheres on a
wide range of temporal and spatial scales. Climate change does impact the
geosphere as well, but the effects of the Earth’s climate on this sphere
generally evolve over long periods of time and are beyond the scope of this
book. Thus, the focus will be on the atmosphere, hydrosphere, cryosphere,
and biosphere. Why these four spheres are important is represented by the
next outer ring, i.e., WEFH. Earth could not sustain life without these four
vital elements. Changing climate poses additional threats to the secure and
stable elements that have helped global society evolve and strive for higher
standards of living over thousands of years. However, the growing global
population with its demands for higher quality of living, industrialization,
urbanization, and dwindling natural resources, along with natural and
anthropogenic causes of climate change, have raised critical concerns about
the future of human society on Earth, as depicted by the outer ring on Figure
1.1 of forces enhancing pressures on the Earth system.
Scientists estimate that the planet will warm by 2°C by 2050 (IPCC, 2021).
Many scientists believe that this level of warming is the threshold for
dangerous implications for life on this planet. We urgently need a
comprehensive understanding of the basic scientific principles behind
climate change to develop long-term strategies to cope with the broader

Chapter 1
4
environmental, societal, and economic impacts. This effort must involve a
multidisciplinary approach using the principles of atmospheric science,
biology, engineering, socioeconomics, and the specialized natural resource
fields of hydrology, agriculture, energy, and health, to understand how the
Earth operates as an interconnected, integrated system.
Figure 1.1: A schematic illustration of climate change, the Earth system, and the
water–energy–food–health (WEFH) nexus.

Introduction 5
1.2 Sustainable Earth
Before reviewing the structure of this textbook, it is also important to note
that this overall problem is being addressed by universities, industries,
governments, and international organizations around the world. There is
growing awareness of the global issues and recognition that societal changes
must be addressed to cope with the related problems, with the ultimate goal
of sustaining a quality life on Earth. The mobilization of means of
implementation, including financial resources, and technology development,
transfer and capacity-building, as well as the role of partnerships, are also
acknowledged as critical.
In 2015, the United Nations (UN) adopted “The 2030 Agenda for
Sustainable Development.” At the heart of this blueprint for the planet were
17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), which outline an urgent call to
action by all countries in a global partnership. The SDGs provide a to-do
list for people and countries to combat the impacts of climate change
through a coordinated set of actions during the next 15 years. The SDGs
address the needs of people in both developed and developing countries,
emphasizing that no one should be left behind. Broad and ambitious in
scope, the agenda addresses the three dimensions of sustainable development
that include social, economic, and environmental aspects. The 17 SDGs are
illustrated in Figure 1.2. A number of these SDGs are directly linked to the
topics discussed in this book. There are others that are indirectly linked as
well, but the focus of attention will be on following SDGs: #2 (Zero
Hunger); #3 (Good Health and Well-Being); #6 (Clean Water and
Sanitation); #7 (Affordable and Clean Energy); #13 (Climate Action); #14
(Life Below Water); and #15 (Life on Land).

Chapter 1
6
Figure 1.2: The 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), adopted by the UN in
“The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development.”
These 7 SDGs are related to climate, natural resources, and human health
and well-being. Figure 1.3 summarizes how extreme climate events pose
severe risks and have consequential impacts to human society. Most of these
topics will be addressed in this textbook.

Introduction 7
Figure 1.3: Climate risks and their impacts on sustainable Earth (WMO, 2019).

Chapter 1
8
1.3 Objectives and Structure
The impacts of climate change on the environment, natural resources, and
fragile ecosystems are immense, complex, and interrelated. The atmosphere–
land–ocean continuum must be fully understood in a holistic manner to gain
proper insight into future impacts on the Earth system. An important
motivation for this textbook is to focus on the growing set of facts and
scientific evidence that form the basis of concern for the current and future
impacts of changing climate on the Earth system. This textbook aims to
present a scientific discussion of climate change impacts as they relate to
natural resource security, ecosystem preservation, and sustainable
development, to improve the knowledge base of students. It does not present
arguments for or against sociopolitical interpretations. The goal is to present
a factual set of scientific information for students to better understand the
issues and to help them make their own decisions on potential courses of
action. Portions of this manuscript have been taught to graduate-level
students studying a range of course curricula for their degree programs.
Feedback from course questionnaires has helped to guide the preparations
of this manuscript.
The topics of the textbook include a basic review of the fundamental
principles of weather and climate that govern the state of the atmosphere,
and help explain the drivers of weather extremes, climate variability, and
climate change. The physical principles of climate change are introduced to
differentiate the distinct differences between its natural and anthropogenic
causes. The primary emphasis of this textbook is on focusing attention on a
holistic approach to this real and evolving problem of changing climate. The
concept of the atmosphere–land–ocean continuum is then introduced to
demonstrate the interconnected and integrated components of the Earth
system. The distinctions between climate hazards and disasters are reviewed
to form the basis of understanding impacts of climate change on society.
Climate change is not new. The history of climate change is reviewed,
including the evidence of how climate change contributed to the rise and
fall of ancient civilizations. This topic brings into clearer focus that
changing climate trends and patterns have always been a part of the dynamic
state of the Earth system. While historical evidence of climate change has
been documented through paleoclimatology, current monitoring, analysis,
and prediction tools have greatly enhanced the technological capability to
gather and analyze global, regional, and local patterns of change. Satellite-
based applications are now employed to further improve our understanding
and analysis of changing climate conditions. With this background, climate
change impacts on the Earth system can be examined.

Introduction 9
The impacts on the natural environment and fragile ecosystems need to be
demonstrated, as well as how natural resource sectors of society are
vulnerable to changes in climate. This foundation is needed to bring together
a more holistic understanding of natural resource management and help to
prepare the students to cope with future challenges and opportunities to
develop strategies to sustain socioeconomic development. While many of
these topics have been discussed in other publications, this textbook focuses
entirely on the synergistic approach of climate change on the Earth system.
This textbook includes a comprehensive overview of the specific impacts of
climate change on the environment; ecosystems; water, agriculture, and
energy sectors; and natural resource management. It focuses on a holistic
approach to climate change impacts on the Earth system. From this
perspective, it is unique and provides extremely important insight about the
history and evolution of climate change into its present-day form, why it is
so critical to society, and how to address critical issues for the preservation
of the Earth system in the future. The main theme is the interrelated and
integrated aspects of climate change impacts on the Earth system. The
process is constantly evolving and is dynamic in nature. This textbook
highlights the components of climate change’s causes and effects on
economic sectors of society, and aims to inspire the student with knowledge
and insight to further examine the state of the climate and its societal
impacts in the future. The book is divided into the following four parts.
Part I: Basic Principles of Climate Change
The intent of this section is to provide a brief overview or summary of
important features that lay the foundation of climate support for the Earth
system. There are many textbooks and journal articles that delve into the
theories, principles, and scientific discoveries that are beyond the scope of
this book but offer significant depths of study for interested students. For
this book, the emphasis is on key indicators and drivers of essential climate
factors that have helped promote and sustain components of the Earth
system. Chapter 2 provides an overview of basic observational climate
factors that contribute to the overall climate system. Indicators of climate
change are reviewed in this chapter to provide the reader with the key factors
that offer evidence of potential changes in climate. Chapter 3 reviews the
fundamental physical principles of climate change. This chapter provides
an important understanding of the underlying causes of climate change that
have occurred throughout Earth’s history and that have led to the current
state of the climate that dominates the Earth today. While the climate and
its changing state of flux may manifest themselves at local and regional

Chapter 1
10
levels around the world due to the Earth’s unique spatial features, it is
important to understand that the cause-and-effect relationships extend to the
global scale. Chapter 4 reviews several very important global teleconnections
that link an important climate event in one part of the world to consequences
of the event elsewhere. These three chapters provide the basics of climate
change that impact life on Earth.
Part II: Climate Change and the Earth System
This section reviews how and why climate is an integral factor in the
development and survival of the Earth system. There are five main spheres
of this system, i.e., the atmosphere, hydrosphere, cryosphere, biosphere, and
geosphere. This book will focus attention on the first four spheres that are
most directly affected by changing climate conditions. The geosphere
generally refers to the solid part of the Earth, consisting of the crust and
mantle. While climate does have an impact on the geosphere, the effects
generally occur over long periods of time and are beyond the scope of this
book. Chapter 5 reviews the important components of the atmosphere that
provide the first clues of changing climate on a local, regional, and/or global
scale. It is very important to understand the composition of the atmosphere
and how changes in the levels of atmospheric gases play a key role in
climate change. Chapter 6 examines the importance of the hydrosphere: the
waters of the Earth that cover about 70% of its surface. Water is essential to
life on Earth, and it plays a fundamental role in changing climate conditions,
especially the ocean–atmosphere interactions. Chapter 7 provides an
overview of the portion of the Earth that is covered by frozen water: the
cryosphere. Water in solid form, including ice, snow cover, ocean and
mountain glaciers, and continental ice sheets, comprises an important
component of the global climate system. The linkages and feedback
processes between climate and the cryosphere are important to understand.
Chapter 8 focuses on the biosphere: the regions of the Earth’s surface,
atmosphere, and hydrosphere that are occupied by life-forms. It is in this
sphere that the global ecological system integrates all living organisms and
interacts with elements of all other Earth spheres. Chapter 9 summarizes the
components of the Earth system, with the aim of introducing the important
nexus concept of how these components are interlinked and how they
influence human activities.

Introduction 11
Part III: Climate Impacts on Earth’s Sustainable Resources
Chapter 10 focuses on the impacts that changing climate has on both on
oceans and terrestrial water systems. The oceans provide an essential
service to human existence by generating oxygen for the air that we breathe,
by producing food that we eat, and by storing excess carbon dioxide that we
generate. Human existence depends heavily on the terrestrial water supply.
Climate change has complex consequences on water supply and demand.
Chapter 11 discusses the Earth’s array of fossil fuel and renewable energy
sources that have sustained human evolution, from nomadic beginnings
through agrarian evolution to modern technologically industrialized
societies. However, this successful advancement in the quality of human life
has had consequences on the Earth system, caused by anthropogenic factors
that have influenced Earth’s climate. Chapter 12 reviews some of the past
and present impacts that changing climate has had on agriculture and
identifies the critical climate parameters that have contributed to the success
or failure of agriculture. Climate change poses numerous challenges to
sustainable agricultural development, but there are opportunities to enhance
and promote further development of mitigation and adaptation strategies to
meet these challenges. Chapter 13 addresses several important consequences
of climate change that affect human health. Changes in precipitation that
result in flooding, drought, heat waves, intense hurricanes, storms, sea level
rise, and degraded air quality all contribute to human health hazards. Human
health is endangered by our food and water sources, the air we breathe, the
weather we experience, and our interactions with the natural environment.
Chapter 14 shows how WEFH are all inextricably linked. The competition
for resources to produce safe drinking water, nutritious food, and efficient
energy creates sets of intricate problems for sustainable development and
resource security. Nexus interactions are complex and dynamic, but sectoral
issues cannot be evaluated in isolation from one another. The challenge of
changing climate and the future sustainability of the Earth system requires
a proactive synergistic approach to resource management and environmental
preservation.
Part IV: Challenges and Opportunities for a Sustainable Earth
Chapter 15 presents a climate nexus view from space. Satellite technology
provides an invaluable capability to study the Earth system in a more
holistic manner from a more comprehensive spatial perspective. Remotely
sensed information enhances the ability to understand and cope with
changing climate conditions. Chapter 16 presents an overview of innovative

Chapter 1
12
technologies to manage and inventory large volumes of data that are
available to the scientific and technological communities to help meet the
common goals that were laid out in the UN’s SDGs. There are many
challenges and limitations that need to be overcome, but with coordination,
cooperation, and collaboration many of these challenges can be met to help
fulfill the objective of future sustainable development in a changing climate.
1.4 Summary
Each chapter of this textbook will be introduced by a set of learning
objectives. These will provide guidance on the relevant information
presented in the chapter to serve as a learning aid. At the end of each chapter,
a set of critical thinking questions have been developed to assist in the
understanding of the content. By learning about these processes and
impacts, the intent is to broaden the understanding of the current issues that
pose serious concerns for the state of the Earth system. In doing so, it may
bring forward new ideas and innovations that will contribute to the future
sustainable development options to preserve the health and well-being of
human society.
Key words: climate change, Earth system, global warming, climate risk,
SDGs, water–energy–food–health (WEFH) nexus, sustainable Earth.
Critical Thinking Questions:
1. What are the major objectives and structure of this textbook?
2. Why is climate change important and why has it occurred throughout
Earth’s history?
3. What are the major components of the Earth system and how do they
impact climate change?
4. What are the 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)?
5. How does climate change affect the water–energy–food–health
(WEFH) nexus?
6. What are the main causes of climate change?
7. How does climate change impact the Earth’s natural resources?
8. What may happen to future sustainable development if climate
change is ignored by human society?
9. If the Earth’s temperature continues to increase, how could we adapt
to it in the future?

Introduction 13
Useful Links:
1. World Meteorological Organization (WMO)
https://public.wmo.int/en
2. Global Climate Observing System (GCOS)
https://gcos.wmo.int/en/
3. United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)
https://sdgs.un.org/goals
4. Sustainable Earth
https://sustainable-earth.org/

Chapter 1
14
References
IPCC. 2021. The IPCC Sixth Assessment Report—Climate Change 2021:
The Physical Science Basis
https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-working-group-i/.
WMO. 2019. State of the Climate in 2018 shows accelerating climate
change impacts. https://public.wmo.int/en/media/press-release/state-of-
climate-2018-shows-accelerating-climate-change-impacts.

PART I:
THE BASICS PRINCIPLES
OF CLIMATE CHANGE

CHAPTER 2
INDICATORS OF CLIMATE CHANGE
AND CLIMATE OBSERVATIONS
Learning Objectives:
1. Explain the significance of climate observation (including past,
present, and future).
2. Describe paleoclimatology and its importance to global climate
change monitoring.
3. Discuss the major climate change indicators.
4. Explain the current state of the Earth’s climate change, including
global warming.
5. Describe climate hazards and how they can turn into climate
disasters.
6. Describe future technology for climate change observations.
7. Discuss the climate change and extreme natural hazards.
2.1 Introduction
The Earth’s climate system is exceedingly complex. To understand the
current climate, we need to look at climate conditions in the past and
compare the rate of change between the two periods. Although there are no
significant climate data records before human history, there are ways to
assess past climates using proxy climate data records, such as oceanic
deposits, ice cores, tree rings, and other such methods. Throughout history,
natural events caused temperature changes to Earth’s climate. For example,
there were multiple warm intervals and ice ages that occurred, all of which
significantly affected the past and current climate. In the past, these changes
in temperatures during these epochs have shaped the changes to polar ice
caps, continental vegetation, and sea level globally. Other natural factors
that affect climate change are plate tectonic movements, ocean circulation,
mountain building, land erosion, and land-use changes due to deforestation
and desertification. Human activity is also an important factor affecting
current climate change. Since the 1800s, human activities in the industrial

Indicators of Climate Change and Climate Observations 17
sector have ignited rapid changes in carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions
through the burning of fossil fuels. Industrial activities also introduced
chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) into the atmosphere, which contribute greatly
to greenhouse effects. During the 20th century, motor vehicles with
combustion engines were mass-produced to serve as a global means of
transportation but they have become one of the major sources of CO2
emissions in recent years. Finally, with the increase in global population,
the demand for industrial and agricultural land has increased significantly,
and many countries have chosen deforestation methods to meet this
demand. Tropical forests, such as the Amazon rainforest, have experienced
widespread deforestation in recent decades, which has significantly reduced
a major carbon sink source. To understand the current climate change status,
we need to learn from basic weather and climate observations, as well as
from climate data records.
In this chapter, we will be focusing on the (1) historical paleoclimate and
past indicators of climate change, (2) current state of climate changes and
present indicators, (3) climate hazards and disasters, (4) climate observations,
and (5) future technology for climate change observations. Meteorology is
the study of weather and climate. Weather can be described as the state of
the atmosphere over a short period of time, whereas climate is generally
how the atmosphere behaves over relatively longer periods of time. Thus,
climate refers to long-term averages of weather. Weather is characterized
by short-term (0–36 hours) changes in temperature, humidity, precipitation,
cloudiness, wind velocity, and atmospheric pressure. Climate is a description
of the long-term (>30 years) patterns of weather in a given area. In the past,
climate was generally represented by statistical averages of weather at an
observational site or by regional/global statistical compilations. However,
since changing climate conditions alter components of the Earth system,
including water supplies, agricultural patterns, and ecosystems, climate
change has taken on an important role in the planet’s sustainability. It is
important to review the observational data to understand the current and
long-term changes in global or regional climate patterns. This chapter
reviews some of the fundamental indicators of climate change, which are
measured or derived from different types of observational measurement
approaches. From these basic observational climate indicators, the changes
underway in most components of the Earth system can be evaluated. These
analyses pave the way for the development of innovative technologies,
which can be used to monitor climate change, provide mitigation, and adapt
strategies for sustainable development.

Chapter 2
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2.2 Paleoclimate and Indicators
Paleoclimate refers to climate conditions that have existed for billions of
years before the dawn of human civilization (Ackerman & Knox, 2015).
Paleoclimatology is the study of past climates for which direct measurements
were not taken. Scientists have built historical climate data records of Earth’s
paleoclimates from ancient proxy data. The paleoclimate record combined
with global models shows past ice ages and periods even warmer than today.
However, the paleoclimate record also reveals that the current climatic
warming is occurring much more rapidly than past warming events.
Physical, chemical, and biological climate proxy data within the geologic
record (in paleoclimate archives) are used for analyzing and correcting with
climate or environmental parameters in the modern world, since there were
no direct observations from instruments. Figure 2.1 shows the different
types of climate proxy data that recorded changes in climate conditions but
do not measure temperature or precipitation.
The climate proxy indicators include sediments, ice cores, tree rings,
documents, pollen, and long-term instrumental records (Ackerman & Knox,
2015). Scientists combine proxy-based paleoclimate reconstructions with
instrumental records (such as thermometer and rain-gauge readings) to
expand our understanding of climate variability to times before humans
began measuring the climate. These reconstructions of the past climate and
environment span all timescales, from year-to-year variations to those that
occurred over millions of years. These data help us understand how the
Earth’s climate system varied both before and after human alteration of the
landscape (USGS, 2021).
There are means of analyzing proxy data that offer valuable insight into
historical trends, patterns, and changes in climate throughout history. In
paleoclimatology, or the study of past climates, physical characteristics of
the environment that have been preserved over time provide strong evidence
of climate, which can be merged with current and more sophisticated
observational measurements. Historical documents are often a valuable
source when used in collaboration with other proxy data. Figure 2.2 shows
global temperature anomalies over 800,000 years based on historical proxy
climate data records reconstructed based on glacial ice code records.
Temperature anomalies from paleoclimate data are shown by the green line,
while the levels of CO2 are shown by the gray points. In their research on
Antarctic climate variability, Jouzel et al. (2007) rebuilt new high-resolution
Antarctic climate records, which can be used to understand systematic long-
term as well as millennial changes over the past 800,000 years. These

climate data records also can serve as a benchmark for exploiting the many
parameters of Earth system and point to an active role for high southern
latitudes and in the dynamics of climate change both at orbital and
millennial time scales, rather than to a picture of these polar regions simply
recording variability originating from other parts of the climate system
(Jouzel et al., 2007). The climate data records provide important evidence
and information for paleoclimate change and variations over 800,000 years.
Figure 2.1: Climate proxy indicators (Ackerman & Knox, 2015).

Chapter 2
20
Figure 2.2: Global temperature anomalies over 800,000 years (NASA, 2010).

Global average temperature fluctuations are associated with naturally
occurring cold periods (ice ages) and warm periods (interglacials) that
generally occur in about 100,000-year cycles throughout this historical
period. Previous warming episodes were triggered by small increases in
sunlight reaching the Earth’s surface and were amplified by large CO2
emissions derived from warming oceans. Natural forces that impact climate
change include Sun activity, the Earth’s rotations, and volcanic activity. For
example, a major cause of cooling periods was attributed to more active
periods of volcanic activity that blocked sunlight from reaching the Earth’s
surface. The latest warming trend began in the late 19th and early 20th
centuries, with the significance of this trend being the contribution of man-
made factors related to the Industrial Revolution that began in the mid-
1800s.
As instrumental climate records only span a tiny part of the Earth’s history,
the reconstruction of ancient climate is important to understand climate
change and natural variation. Figure 2.3 illustrates the significant variability
in global average temperatures over the past 1,500 years. The global
temperature anomaly records, which are derived from proxy-based
paleoclimate data (green line) and modern instrument measurement data
(blue line), suggest that the global temperature is warmer now than it has
been during the past 1,000 years and possibly longer (Mann, 2008). Figure
2.3 takes a closer look at the changes in temperatures over the past 1,500
years, compared to the 1961-to-1990 average. These historical data are
based on aforementioned proxy data (tree rings, ice cores, corals), as well
as modern thermometer-based data. Historical documents can provide both
quantitative and qualitative information about past climate conditions. For
example, scientists used historical grape harvest dates to reconstruct
summer temperatures between April and September in France from 1370 to
1879 (NOAA).
Over the past two millennia, the climate has warmed and cooled, but no
previous warming episodes appear to have been as large and abrupt as the
recent period (since 1900) of global warming. Today’s global warming is
overwhelmingly due to the increase in heat-trapping gases added to the
atmosphere by burning fossil fuels. In fact, over the past five decades,
natural factors (solar forcing and volcanoes) would have led to a slight
cooling of the Earth’s surface temperature had it not been for the
anthropogenic, or totally unnatural, influences.

Chapter 2
22
Figure 2.3: Global temperature anomalies over the past 1,500 years (NASA, 2010).

2.3 Current State of Climate Change and Indicators
The first decade of the 21st century was the warmest instrumentally
recorded global temperature, which started to rise in the late-19th century.
According to a World Meteorological Organization (WMO) report, 2020
was one of the warmest years on record. Between 2014 and 2020, there have
been seven of the warmest years on record. The trend has been one of sea
level rise accelerating, while ocean heat storage and acidification have
increased too (WMO, 2021). According to the 2020 Global Climate Report
from NOAA, the 10 warmest years on record have all occurred since 2005,
and 7 of the 10 have occurred since 2014. By 2021, models project that the
global surface temperature will be more than 0.5°C (0.9°F) warmer than the
1986 to 2005 average. NOAA explores climate change in the context of past
centuries, which gives us a comprehensive overview of how unusual the
current climate may be (NOAA, 2021). The current state of Earth’s climate
changes and associated indicators are discussed in this section.
Climate indicators can be used to describe our global climate change.
According to the WMO, there are seven “climate indicators” to describe the
global climate state and to provide a broad view of the climate at a global
scale (GCOS, 2018). They are used to monitor the domains most relevant
to climate change. These are the composition of the atmosphere, the energy
changes that arise from the accumulation of greenhouse gases, and other
factors such as the responses of land, oceans, and ice. The WMO (2021)
annual “State of the Climate” report for 2020 aims to provide an overview
of the global and regional climate status of 2020. The global climate
indicators are a set of parameters describing the climate state not only
focusing on temperature, but also on key information for the most relevant
domains of climate change, such as energy, atmospheric composition,
hydrology, and the cryosphere. The four key domains of climate change are
(based on priority order): temperature and energy, atmospheric composition,
ocean and water, and the cryosphere (see Figure 2.4).

Chapter 2
24
Figure 2.4 Global climate indicators (WMO/GCOS, 2018)
Climate indicators show long-term trends in key aspects of the Earth’s
environment including basic parameters, as listed in Table 2.1.
Table 2.1 Indicators of the Earth’s climate change
Indicator Related Earth components
1 Surface temperature Atmosphere
2 Ocean heat Hydrology
3 Atmospheric CO2 Atmosphere
4 Ocean acidification Hydrology
5 Sea level Hydrology
6 Glaciers Cryosphere/hydrology

7
Arctic and Antarctic Sea ice
extent
Cryosphere/hydrology
8 Soil moisture/temperature Hydrosphere/geosphere
9 Vegetation index Biosphere
10 Precipitation Hydrosphere
11 Drought index Atmosphere/hydrology
12
Aboveground/underground
CO2
Biosphere/cryosphere
13
Atmospheric cloud/water
vapor
Atmosphere
14
Other important indicators
(vegetation indexes,
aerosols, soil and
vegetation indexes, ET)
Atmosphere/hydrosphere/biosphere
(*adapted from WMO climate indicators)
The US Global Change Research Program (USGCRP, 2018) established the
Climate Change Indicator Platform including the following key aspects: (1)
land and sea surface temperatures; (2) greenhouse gas levels in the
atmosphere; and (3) extent of Arctic Sea ice.
You can learn about updated trends based on different
climate indicators from the USGCRP website (https://www.
globalchange.gov/indicators). This chapter will focus on the
land and sea surface temperatures. Other climate change
indicators will be discussed in Part II of this book (Chapters
5–9). Climate indicators from satellite remote sensing
measurements will be discussed in Chapter 15.
2.3.1 Surface Temperature
Global/regional temperature and precipitation are two of the most common
parameters of climate classifications. These two parameters best
characterize the climate conditions of a region, based on the standard period
(used by climate scientists) of 30 years of record. In meteorology and
climatology, surface temperature represents the average kinetic energy of
air molecules in the Earth’s atmosphere, and it is measured at 1.5 meters (or
about 5 feet) above a grassy surface. A similar methodology can be found
in the fields of geography and agricultural sciences, with surface temperature

Chapter 2
26
measured at 1.2 meters (about 4 feet). Surface temperature is the most
important indicator of the Earth’s climate change. It is different from the
land surface temperature, which is defined as the temperature felt when the
land surface is touched with the hands, or the skin temperature of the ground
in satellite remote sensing (Rajeshwari & Mani, 2014). Based on the
historical analyses of temperature and precipitation data over the recorded
period, the state of climate change can be determined. More specifically,
surface temperatures over land and sea are the most important climate
change indicators. There is a lot of evidence supporting climate change
throughout Earth’s history, with the most common data indicator of climate
change being global temperature. Thus, it is critically important to
understand this basic parameter of temperature.
The temperature represents the averaged kinetic energy of air molecules. It
refers to a measure of the ability of a substance, or, more generally, of any
physical system, to transfer heat energy to another physical system. For
example, shortwave solar radiation from the Sun heats the atmosphere and
warms the Earth’s surface. Likewise, greenhouse gases and clouds can trap
longwave thermal radiation emitted from the Earth’s surface. In terms of
measurement, the daily minimum and maximum surface temperatures are
two basic measurements. The daily mean temperature is the average of the
minimum and maximum surface temperatures, and the diurnal temperature
range is the difference between the minimum and maximum surface
temperatures for the day. While the global surface temperature offers a
relatively easy-to-understand indicator, it reflects only part of the increases
in energy in the global system. Nevertheless, as surface temperature is a
critical target for the Paris Agreement, it is essential to include it in the set
of headline climate indicators that contextualizes temperature indicators at
regional and national levels. These indicators can be used to explain our
current changing climate to policymakers and the public.
2.3.2 Mean Surface Air Temperature and Temperature
Anomalies
In terms of monitoring climate change, the mean temperature and its
associated anomalies are more important than absolute temperature. Mean
temperature refers to the averaged minimum and maximum temperatures,
and thus a temperature anomaly occurs when there is a significant deviation
from the long-term average/baseline temperature (of 30-year periods). A
positive anomaly indicates the observed temperature is warmer than the
baseline, while a negative anomaly indicates the observed temperature is

cooler than the baseline. The mean of monthly values of climatological data
over any specified period is sometimes referred to as a “provisional normal”
in some sources (WMO, 2017). To calculate the mean monthly temperature
as the best climate change indicator:
1. Add the daily mean temperatures for each day of a month.
2. Divide that sum by the number of days in the measured month.
For example, to calculate the mean monthly temperature for January would
require adding the 31 mean daily temperatures and then dividing that sum
by 31. More detailed information can be obtained from “WMO Guidelines
on the Calculation of Climate Normals” (WMO, 2017).
Figure 2.5 shows the average annual global temperatures 1880 compared to
the long-term average (1901 to 2000). The zero line represents the long-
term global average temperature. The bars below zero show the temperature
was lower than the long-term temperature average, while the bars above
zero show the temperature was warming than average temperature for each
year. The global temperature has been increasing since 1880, but it has
increased particularly quickly since 1980. As of 2020, the global
temperature has increased by “1.2 ± 0.1°C (34.16 ± 32.18°F) above the
1850–1900 baseline” making 2020 one of the top three hottest years on
record (WMO, 2020a). Since the WMO (2020) report, 2020 tied 2016 as
the hottest year on record; this is significant because 2016 had strong El
Niño conditions, which contributed to a significant temperature anomaly,
while 2020 started with neutral conditions and ended in a La Niña phase
(NASA, 2021). The past six years (2015 to 2020) are all in the top six
warmest on record, which supports the argument for a consistent trend in
global warming.

Chapter 2
28
Figure 2.5: Global mean surface temperature by combined land and ocean (NOAA,
2021).

Figure 2.6: The global surface temperature index, showing the global temperature
anomaly since 1880, based on NASA (2021) datasets.
Based on NASA analysis, there were cooling periods between 1880 and
1890, 1900 and 1910, 1945 and 1950, and 1962 and 1965 (see Figure 2.6),
which were caused by combinations of aerosols from volcanoes and human
sources, solar variability, and natural variability. Since the 1980’s, the
global surface temperature has increased quickly (NASA, 2020). According
to the WMO (2021), 2020 was the second-warmest year to date when
compared to equivalent periods in the past (January to October). The spread
of the estimates for the January-to-October average is between 1.11°C and
1.23°C (33.9°F and 34.2°F) (WMO, 2021). Based on the Paris Agreement,
the global mean surface temperature needs to be kept below 2°C (35.6°F)
above pre-industrial levels. The reference period from 1850 to 1900
represents the pre-industrial temperature. Recall the decadal mean
temperature from Figure 2.6; the atmospheric CO2 seasonal oscillations
because of the role of plants in the carbon cycle can be seen. More detailed
discussions are provided in Section 2.4.

Chapter 2
30
Figure 2.7: Global surface temperature and drivers (NASA, 2020).
Climate change includes both global warming driven by human emissions
of greenhouse gases and the resulting large-scale shifts in weather patterns.
Figure 2.7 shows the observed temperatures from NASA versus the 1850-
to-1900 average as a pre-industrial baseline. The main driver for increased
global temperatures in the industrial era is human activity, with natural
forces adding variability (USGCRP, 2017).
2.3.3 Diurnal Temperature Range (DTR)
Mean temperature and its anomalies are generally used as a universal
measurement for studying climate change. However, mean temperature
alone is not enough to reflect the complicated climate change and its
variations. In fact, trends in mean surface temperature are often due to
changes in daily minimum and maximum temperatures. The diurnal
temperature range (DTR) refers to the difference between the daily
minimum and maximum temperatures and is an important indicator for
climate change (Karl et al., 2004; Qu et al., 2014). The DTR has steadily
decreased throughout the USA (Karl et al., 1991). Daily DTR data is
obtained by subtracting the daily minimum temperature from the daily
maximum temperature at each station. Then, spatial and temporal averages

are calculated for regional, annual, and seasonal analysis, to get DTR time
series for the continental USA and the four study regions (northeastern,
northwestern, southeastern, and southwestern) (Qu et al., 2014). The
regional mean DTR, regional mean maximum temperature, and regional
mean minimum temperature are the average of DTR, daily maximum
temperature and daily minimum temperature, respectively, at stations within
the specified spatial area.
Figure 2.8 shows the yearly average diurnal air temperature range,
maximum air temperature, and minimum air temperature of the continental
USA from 1911 to 2012. The annual mean maximum air temperature has a
slightly increasing trend, as seen in the second graph, but the annual mean
minimum air temperature is rising at a much faster rate, as seen in the third
graph. It can be concluded that the significantly increasing trend of mean
minimum temperature contributes to the decreasing mean DTR. A steadily
decreasing trend of average DTR over the continental USA was identified
statistically and this indicates that, overall, temperatures are trending to be
warmer. Especially, during recent decades, the DTR decreasing trend is
more significant (Qu et al., 2014). Land areas throughout the world show an
increase in minimum and maximum daily temperatures, and the minimum
temperature has increased by twice as much as the maximum temperature
(Ackerman & Knox, 2015). The decreasing DTR trend indicates that the
day and night temperature ranges are smaller. The nighttime temperature
has become one of the most important parameters for investigating the
Earth’s climate change.

Chapter 2
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Figure 2.8: Annual mean diurnal air temperature range (DTR), maximum air
temperature (TMAX), and minimum temperature (TMIN) of the continental USA
(Qu et al., 2014).

2.3.4 Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide
CO2 is a colorless and non-flammable gas at normal temperature and
pressure. Although much less abundant than nitrogen and oxygen in Earth’s
atmosphere, CO2 is an important constituent of our planet’s air (NESTA,
2006). Atmospheric CO2 is a greenhouse gas that absorbs, as well as emits,
radiant energy within the thermal infrared range (Anderson et al., 2016).
This atmospheric CO2 is produced from a wide range of human activities,
including the combustion of fossil fuels (such as coal, oil, and natural gas),
manufacturing of cement, and deforestation (Cassia et al., 2018). Based on
an IPCC (2014) report, about 24% of direct CO2 emissions have their source
as agriculture, forestry, and other land-use practices, while another 21%
arises from industrial sources. CO2 is the most important of the greenhouse
gases, not only because of its abundance in the atmosphere but also because
it persists for a longer duration in the atmosphere (Lindsey, 2020).
Figure 2.9 shows the monthly mean CO2 concentration (ppm) measured at
Mauna Loa Observatory, Hawaii. The data from Mauna Loa constitutes the
longest record of direct measurements of CO2 in the atmosphere. C. David
Keeling of the Scripps Institution of Oceanography began recording
measurements in March of 1958 at a facility in the National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration (Keeling, 1978). The atmospheric CO2 level is
greatest during early spring (around May) and reaches the lowest point in
late summer (around August) in the Northern Hemisphere.
During winter, plants grow slowly and absorb less atmospheric CO2. During
spring, plants shift from barren winter branches to bountiful leaves. After
the leaves on trees drop in the fall, the decomposition of leaf litter and other
dead plant material releases CO2 into the atmosphere. In the spring, leaves
return to the trees and photosynthesis increases dramatically, drawing down
the CO2 in the atmosphere. During the summer regrowth period, plants can
remove CO2 from the atmosphere. Consequently, this explains the fact that
the lowest atmospheric CO2 levels occur during late summer. This shift
between the fall and winter months to the spring and summer results in the
sawtooth pattern of the Keeling Curve measurement of atmospheric CO2
such that every year there is a decline in CO2 during months of terrestrial
plant photosynthesis and an increase in CO2 in months without large
amounts of photosynthesis and with significant decomposition (Monroe,
2018). More detailed information about atmospheric CO2 will be covered in
Chapter 6, while the physical foundations of its impact on the Earth’s
climate change are discussed in Chapter 3.

Chapter 2
34
Figure 2.9: Atmospheric CO2 concentration (ppm) during 1958–2019 at Mauna Loa
Observatory (NOAA, 2021)
2.3.5 Ocean Heat
Since the Industrial Revolution, greenhouse gas emissions have increased
25% due to human activities and the burning of fossil fuels, which has
increased the Earth’s average land and sea-surface temperature. In this
section, we will explore how the Earth’s oceans absorb heat. Ocean heat
content has increased dramatically as more than 90% of the energy gained
from climate change in the ocean–atmosphere system has gone into the
ocean (Wuebbles, 2017). This is important for climate scientists to observe
since many observational datasets show that the heat content of the ocean is
increasing dramatically. Ocean warming is greatest near land as it absorbs
more heat from the Sun. Data between 1971 and 2010 shows that the upper
75 meters of the ocean is consistently warming by 0.11 degree °C every
decade but this could potentially change in the future (IPCC, 2014).
Scientists are also observing the ocean’s salinity in some places. Places with
high surface salinity have high evaporation, and scientists have found these
high salinity areas are becoming more saline. On the other hand, regions
with low salinity and higher precipitation have become fresher since 1950
(IPCC, 2014). A significant finding from WMO (2020a) states that in 2020,
82% of the ocean experienced at least one marine heat wave, which

significantly impacts marine life and communities that depend on that part
of the ocean.
2.3.6 Ocean Acidification
We can observe climate change through ocean acidification. Ocean
acidification is the absorption of anthropogenic carbon emissions by the
ocean, which changes its chemical equilibrium (Ackerman & Knox, 2015).
The ocean absorbs around 23% of the annual anthropogenic CO2 emissions,
which helps alleviate the impacts of climate change but with more
ecological costs to our oceans. Since the Industrial Revolution, the ocean
acidity has increased by 30% (NASA, 2020). When greenhouse gases and
CO2 dissolve in our oceans, it decreases the pH of the water to make it more
acidic, which subsequently harms sea life. Figure 2.10 shows the global
ocean surface mean pH from 1985 to 2020 for scenarios RCP2.6 and
RCP8.5 (indicating a 2.6 or a 8.5 watts per meter squared (W/m2) forcing).
The shaded areas represent the estimated uncertainty in each measurement.
Scientists have observed ocean acidification effects on marine ecosystems
and found that it decreases the survival of coral reefs and diminishes the
ability of shellfish to grow their shells. Ocean acidification also affects
ecosystem services, such as endangering fisheries, aquaculture, and food
security (WMO, 2020a). It also negatively impacts coastal protection as it
weakens coral reefs, which thereby reduces natural shielding for coastlines.
Figure 2.10: Global ocean surface mean pH from 1985–2020 (WMO, 2020a).

Chapter 2
36
2.3.7 Sea Level
Sea-level variation is another indicator of climate change. The sea level has
been rising globally by an average of 3.29 millimeters per year and peaked
in 2020 before decreasing later in the year due to the La Niña conditions in
the tropical Pacific (WMO, 2020). Since the 1900s, the global mean sea
level has risen about 7 to 8 inches, or 16 to 21 centimeters (Sweet et al.,
2017). Sea level rise or change is driven by two major factors: (1) the
increased volume of sea water due to thermal expansion of the ocean as it
warms, and (2) the increased mass of water in the ocean due to the melting
of the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets and ice from mountain glaciers.
Sea level rise is not uniform globally because of atmosphere–ocean dynamics,
which are driven by ocean circulation, winds, and other factors. The case of
the weakening of the Gulf Stream transport in the mid-to-late 2000s
contributed to a sea level rise along the northeastern US coast; this is a trend
many models will continue to project in the future (Sweet et al., 2017a).
Glacier mass loss and ocean thermal expansion explains 75% of the
observed global mean sea level rise. Scientists came to this conclusion by
using tide gauges and a series of satellite missions that started in 1992 and
continues to measure the global mean sea level every 10 days with an
uncertainty of 3 to 4 millimeters (Ackerman & Knox, 2015). The WMO
(2021) states that the sea level has risen throughout the altimeter record, but
recently it has risen at a higher rate due partly to increased melting of ice
sheets in Greenland and Antarctica. The global mean sea level in 2020 was
similar to that in 2019 and both are consistent with the long-term trend.
Melting sea ice contributes to rising sea levels indirectly, as smaller amounts
of sea ice allow for more solar energy to penetrate the ocean, which thereby
allows for more warming of the water. This is known as the ice–albedo
feedback, or loop, in which incoming solar energy reflects off the water,
warming the ocean, and continues to melt the ice, resulting in further
warming. Oceans are dynamic and have complex three-dimensional
circulations, which increases the complexity of their role in climate change.
There are vertical motions, known as convection, in the ocean that are very
sensitive to temperature. If global warming changes the amount and location
of convection, climate change could accelerate more rapidly (Ackerman &
Knox, 2015). One NASA article details, “In recognition of the different time
horizons of relevance to different decision contexts, as well as the long-term
global mean sea level (GMSL) rise commitment (lagged GMSL response)
from on-going increases in ocean-atmosphere warming, GMSL rise and
associated relative sea level (RSL) change are quantified from the year 2000

through the year 2200 (on a decadal basis to 2100 and with lower temporal
frequency between 2100 and 2200)” (Sweet et al., 2017).
2.3.8 Arctic and Antarctic Sea Ice Extent
Based on the WMO’s (2021) “The State of the Global Climate 2020” report,
the annual Arctic minimum sea-ice extent was the second lowest on record,
and record low sea-ice extents were observed in the months of July and
October, while the Antarctic sea-ice extent remained close to the long-term
average. Additionally, the Greenland ice sheet continues to lose mass.
Although the surface mass balance was close to the long-term average, the
loss of ice due to iceberg calving (or the breaking of ice chunks from the
edge of a glacier) was at the high end of the 40-year satellite record. In total,
approximately 152 gigatons of ice were lost from the ice sheet between
September 2019 and August 2020 (WMO, 2021). More detailed physical
foundations of the Arctic and Antarctic sea-ice extents are discussed in
Chapter 7 (Cryosphere).
2.4 Climate Extremes and Hazards
There is a growing recognition that climate variability and extremes
associated with climate change are both likely to increase (Easterling,
2000). This, in turn, will adversely affect the vulnerability of most nations
to climate hazards, such as droughts, floods, and tropical storms. The
measures of natural hazards are composed of following 5 items (Burton et
al., 1993):
1. Magnitude: the measure of severity for a natural hazard.
2. Frequency: how often the event can be expected at a significant
magnitude.
3. Duration: the measure of time the event persists.
4. Speed of onset: the measure of time in which conditions move from
average for an event to one of significant magnitude.
5. Areal extent, spatial dispersion, and temporal spacing: these
terms refer to the spatial references of an event.
It is very important to make the distinction here between a hazard and a
disaster. The United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction
(UNISDR, 2009) released a compilation of updated and standardized
terminology related to disaster risk reduction, to modernize terms and their
GH¿QLWLRQV A hazard is defined as a dangerous phenomenon, substance,

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heard. He has had a good education. I don’t suppose he makes very much
money by his profession, so he must be able to live without that. But his
people are very quiet people. They live quite out of the way; they are
scarcely in society at all. Dismiss from your mind all idea of hereditary
estates or important position. All the same, money in the funds is very nice
—when there is enough of it.”
“Money in the funds!” said Grace, her countenance falling; while Milly
took one of her hands from her face, and looked over the other like a sort of
woebegone and misty Aurora from behind the clouds.
“Nothing more romantic than that, I fear,” said Dr Brewer; “but that’s a
very good thing, a very nice thing. No, life in England is not romantic to
speak of; it’s a very businesslike affair. If people have enough to live on, it
doesn’t trouble them very much how it comes. Land is dear. It’s very nice if
you have enough of it, but it’s an expensive luxury. You get better
percentage for your money even in the funds—and no risks.”
“But, perhaps,” said Grace, “as—Geoffrey—is not the right heir—it
might be something different. Perhaps if it came back to the old family
there might be something more. Sometimes—things pass away, don’t they,
when it is not the direct line?”
“Peerages?” said Dr Brewer with a laugh. “Oh, yes; but I never heard of
property going astray. Money must find its level, you know; it must go
somewhere; it cannot just be spilt upon the earth like water and made an
end of. It must turn up somewhere. When a man dies intestate, I believe his
money goes to the Queen; which is hard, I have always thought. If it were
divided among the poorest of his neighbours it would be more sensible.
Sometimes a title drops by reason of a failure in the direct line. But I don’t
suppose you thought——” Here he stopped short, and gave vent to a
sudden laugh. “I do believe, my poor dear girl, that this is what was in your
mind——”
“I never said there was any such thing in my mind,” said Grace, growing
crimson. She felt as if she could have sunk into the earth. She had nothing
to say to defend herself, except this simple denial, and to hear the doctor
laugh was terrible. He laughed so frankly, as at the most apparent nonsense.
The girl did not know what to do. Was she such a fool as he thought?
“It is very romantic,” he said; “but I fear, Miss Grace, in modern days
such things happen very rarely. Life was a great deal more picturesque in

the past. Now people are very thankful for such small mercies as money in
the funds.”
Grace made no reply. She too felt very much disposed to cry; it seemed
cruel that anybody should laugh at them in their circumstances, in their
deep crape. The sound of laughter even was out of place in the room from
which so lately the chief inhabitant had gone. She felt herself hurt, as well
as ashamed, by being made the cause of merriment; and even little Milly,
though she had not agreed with her, uncovered her little tearful face, and
was indignant in Grace’s cause.
“I don’t think there is so much to laugh at, Dr Brewer,” Milly ventured
to say. “You were not there to see what happened. You would have thought
it very, very important if you had seen how they looked, and heard what
they said.”
“I beg your pardon,” said the doctor, “was I unmannerly? I didn’t mean
to be. Why we should laugh at simplicity I cannot tell, but everybody does.
I have not the least doubt it was a most natural mistake.”
Simplicity! when everybody had always thought her so sensible, so
superior to all delusions. Grace shrank back into herself. She would
scarcely reply to any further questions.
“But, you know,” Dr Brewer said, with great gravity, “it is no laughing
matter. Where there is a question of taking their living from another family,
you must be very sure of your facts. It is such a hard case that a jury would
give every advantage of a doubt to the people assailed. It would prefer to
see what they did in the very best light. There would be a prejudice against
the claimants, however much dans leur droit they might be. The evidence
would have to be very exact, as clear as daylight. Any lawyer would tell
you this. He would tell you, if your evidence was not beyond question, to
accept, or even offer, a compromise. Such things are of every-day
occurrence. You may have a strong case, but if you can’t support it, and
make it all as distinct as clockwork, they will suggest a compromise. Have
you found anything among these papers to support the claim you are
intending to make?”
“No.”
“You say your father never spoke about it, never referred to his former
name; gave you not the slightest hint of any rights of his in England?”
“No.”

“In short, you have no proof at all?” the doctor said.
“Not any, that we know of,” said Grace.
She sat, dogged and obstinate, answering only in monosyllables, or with
as few words as possible, sitting bolt upright against the high back of her
chair. Her heart had sunk, and her confidence was failing her; but she would
not yield, or at least seem to yield.
“That is not very hopeful,” said Dr Brewer, “any lawyer would tell you.
But you are determined, notwithstanding, to make out your case?”
“Yes,” said Grace.
She no longer felt amiably disposed towards the doctor. He had cast
down her dream-castle; he had represented her to herself as a vulgar
money-seeker; he had overthrown all her romantic hopes of gaining
advancement for her family, and making of Lenny a pattern English
gentleman, perhaps nobleman. She saw now what a slender foundation she
had built it all upon; but as nothing in the world would ever make Grace
give in, she hardened herself over her inward confusion, and stood like a
rock though her heart was quaking. The doctor made two or three sharp
little speeches; but he was half-angry, too, that the girls upon whom he had
been spending so much feeling should be so impervious to his influence. He
got up hurriedly at last, and said something about still having some patients
to see, though it was getting late.
“Good-night,” he said. “I should say I would be glad to do anything I
could to help you, if I did not think you were embarking upon a most
perilous undertaking. I think, permit me to say so, you should take your
mother’s advice first.”
“I shall do nothing mamma will disapprove of,” said Grace; and she
parted with stateliness from this friend who had been the only one to
succour them in their trouble.
As for Milly, she was very deprecating and tearful as she held out her
two hands to him. “Do not be angry!” she said with her beseeching eyes. It
was all the doctor could do not to stoop down and kiss this peace-maker as
he went away. He had thought her a little nobody at first, but he did not do
so now. “I declare she is as like Laura as one flower is to another,” he said
to himself as he went down-stairs. Now Laura was the doctor’s favourite
child—and what more could be said?

T
When he was gone, Grace returned to her previous occupation with her
father’s papers; but her heart was gone out of her search. “We might have
asked him at least to recommend some lawyer to us,” she said, which was
the only observation she made to Milly on the subject. Milly, indeed, was
dismissed altogether from the employment she had been trusted with before
Dr Brewer came in. Grace continued to look over the papers, to put one on
this heap, and the other on that; but she no longer required Milly’s pen to
write down and describe what each was. For at least an hour they sat silent,
the younger sister looking wistfully on, the elder rustling the papers,
bending over them with puckers of careful consideration over her eyes,
affecting to pause now and then to deliberate over one or another. At length
Grace gathered them all together, with a sudden impatient movement, and,
putting them back into the despatch-box, concluded suddenly without any
warning by an outburst of tears.
“To think,” she cried, when Milly, greatly alarmed, yet almost glad thus
to recover her sister, hurried to her—“to think that we should be going over
all these things that were his private things just the other day—not for love,
or because it was necessary, but for business, and about money! Oh, how
hard we are, how heartless, what poor wretched creatures! I could not have
believed it of myself.”
“Dear,” said Milly, soothing her, “it is because everything is so strange;
and to do anything is a little comfort; and for the children’s sake.”
“I wish now,” said Grace, with her head upon her sister’s shoulder, “that
we had telegraphed at once to mamma.”
“Perhaps it would have been better,” said Milly; “but you thought it
would be so dreadful for her, without any warning.”
Grace wept less bitterly when this instance of her own self-denial was
suggested to her. “It is so long to wait—so long to wait,” she cried. And
then a sense of their desolation came over them, and the two forlorn young
creatures clung to each other. Their nerves were overwrought, and they
were able for no more.
CHAPTER XII
HERE was not very much more happiness under the roof of the house
in Grove Road. Geoffrey, as has been said, sat half the night through in

his study, with his head in his hands, pondering vainly what he ought to do.
Though he said to himself that it was only just that they should produce
their proofs, that they should establish their claim before anything was
done, he jumped at the conclusion all the same, and took it for granted that
the claim would be established, and that his own fate was certain. And after
that what was he to do? He was as confused, as down-cast as ever, when, in
the middle of the night, he made his way through the darkness of the
sleeping house and went to bed, but scarcely to rest. His mother, whose
thoughts also had kept her awake, and who had cried, and pondered, and
dozed, and started up to cry and doze again, heard him come up-stairs, and
with difficulty restrained herself from going to him, to see that he was warm
in bed, and had taken no harm from his vigil. She did not do it, fortunately
remembering that Geoff was not always grateful for her solicitude; but her
fears lest he should have cold feet mingled with and aggravated her fears
lest he should fall in love, and marry and go from her—and altogether
overshadowed her concern about their fortune and the chances that their
money might be taken from them. Miss Anna, on her side, was wakeful too.
That is, she lay among her pillows in profoundest comfort, with the firelight
making the room bright, and candles burning in dainty Dresden candlesticks
at her bedside, and one or two favourite books within reach, and turned
everything over in her active mind, until she had decided what course to
pursue. Not one detail of all the luxury round her would Miss Anna part
with without a struggle. She was determined to fight for her fortune to the
very last; but if there was any better way than mere brutal fighting, her
mind was ready to grasp it and weigh all its possibilities. She, too, heard
Geoff, so late, a great deal too late, come up-stairs to bed, but only smiled at
it somewhat maliciously, not without an enjoyment of the uneasy thoughts
which no doubt had kept him from his rest, and no concern whatever about
his cold feet. She lay thus, with her eyes as wakeful as the stars, till she had
concluded upon her plan of action. As soon as she had done this she
carefully extinguished the candles in an elaborate way of her own, so that
there might be no smell, turned round to the fire, which had ceased to
flame, and now shot only a ruddy suppressed glow into the curtained
darkness—and shutting her eyes fell asleep like a baby. But even she, the
most comfortable in the house, was far outdone, it need not be said, by the
two poor young agitators in the hotel who had filled Grove Road with so
many anxieties and cares. Hours before, Grace and Milly, crying and saying

their prayers in one breath, had fallen asleep in each other’s arms, and knew
no more about their troubles nor about the possibilities before them, nor
anything else in the world, till the morning sunshine awoke them after eight
long hours of perfect repose.
Miss Anna never appeared down-stairs till mid-day. She had enjoyed a
great deal of bad health since she had ceased to be a young woman and
queen of hearts. Latterly it had settled into rheumatism, which had made her
a little lame, and justified a great deal of indulgence. Her attendants said
that even this she could throw off when occasion required. But there could
be little pleasure, one would imagine, in making-believe to be lame. Her
general delicacy, however, gave rise to a hundred necessities which people
in health manage to dispense with. Mrs Underwood and her son had eaten a
troubled breakfast long before her dainty meal was carried into her daintier
chamber, and she returned to wakeful life under the influence of fragrant
coffee and delicate roll, and some elegant trifle of cooked eggs or other
light and graceful food. We say cooked eggs with intention, for boiled eggs,
or even poached eggs, were vulgarities which Miss Anna would not have
tolerated. She ate her pretty breakfast while her sister went through her
household duties with a heavy heart, and Geoffrey took his way to town,
striding along through the muddy streets, for it had rained all night. A little
before noon she sent for Mrs Underwood, who came up with a somewhat
haggard countenance, ready to cry at a moment’s notice, and with a cap
which, in sympathy with her condition of mind, had got awry, and had
greatly tried the nerves of the cook, who had a strong sense of humour, and
felt her inclination to laugh almost too much for her. This was the first thing
Miss Anna remarked when her sister came into the room. She uttered a
suppressed shriek of horror.
“Did you give poor Geoff his breakfast with a cap like that upon your
head? Good gracious! and then you think it wonderful the poor boy should
want to marry and have a trim, neat little wife of his own.”
“What is the matter with my cap?” cried Mrs Underwood in alarm,
putting up her hands and naturally making bad worse. She almost wept with
vexation when she saw herself in one of the many mirrors. “Why didn’t
somebody tell me?” she said piteously, with dreadful thoughts of Geoff’s
disgust, and of the comparison he must be making between that trim, neat
little wife and a mother with her cap awry.

“Set it right now, and come and sit down here,” said Miss Anna.
There could not have been a greater contrast than between these two
sisters. One of them seating herself, timid and anxious, by the bed, with no
confidence either in her own judgment or in her powers of understanding,
or capability of satisfying her imperious critic and companion—her anxious
little mind on tip-toe of troubled solicitude to catch what Anna should
mean, which was always somewhat difficult to her; while the other, with all
her wits about her, seeing everything, noticing everything, lay amid her
luxurious pillows and laughed at her sister’s agitation.
“I wish I could take things as easily as you do, Anna—oh, I wish I could
take them as easy!” Mrs Underwood said.
“You were always a goose,” was Miss Anna’s remark; but she took the
trouble to push aside her curtain and to draw close to the chair at her
bedside on which the other sat, before she unfolded to her the plan she had
formed—which Mrs Underwood received with great surprise and many
holdings up of her hands and wondering exclamations.
“Why, it was just what I thought I ought to do,” she said. “It was all in
my head, every word. I made it up in my mind to say to them, ‘Anna may
be against you, but you will never find me against you; and as the house is
mine, and I have a right to ask whom I like——’ ”
“Stick to that,” said Miss Anna with a laugh. “It was very impertinent
and treacherous of you to think of saying it out of your own head; but now
that we have settled it together, stick to that—it is the very thing to say.”
“I don’t see how you can call it impertinent, Anna: and treacherous!—
me—to you! I have always been true to you. I can’t think how you can say
so. But it is true: the house is mine, however you please to put it. It was left
to me expressly by dear papa. Of course, he made sure you would marry;
and me a widow with one dear child, it was so natural that he should leave
it to me. It will be all we shall have,” she added with a sigh, “if this dreadful
thing comes true.”
“It will never come true if you play your cards well, Mary. You have got
it all in your hands,” Miss Anna said, “and it will be a fine thought for you
that you have saved your family: though you never thought a great deal of
your own powers—I will do you that justice.”
Mrs Underwood shook her head. “My own family—that is, my boy,” she
said.

“So it is,” said Miss Anna. “Of course I don’t count; but you will have
the satisfaction, my dear, if you should live to be a hundred, of feeling that
you have saved your boy.”
At this Mrs Underwood shook her head once more, and two tears came
into her eyes. “He will be lost to me,” she said. “Oh, I remember well
enough how I felt myself when I married Henry. ‘What does he want with
his mother? he has got me,’ I used to say. I never liked him to go too often
to the old lady. And now I am the old lady, and his wife will think the same
of me.”
“Let us hope she will be a better Christian than you were,” said Miss
Anna, with a laugh.
“A better Christian! I hope I have always been a Christian at heart,
whatever else I may have failed in. I hope I have always remembered my
duty to my Maker,” said Mrs Underwood, offended. This assault dried the
tears in her eyes. “And, Anna, though I’m sure I am not one to find fault, I
don’t think that you—never going to church, and reading French novels and
things, and making schemes to keep your neighbours out of their rights
——”
Miss Anna laughed with genuine enjoyment. “I acknowledge all my sins,
my dear,” she said. “I am not the person to talk, am I? But, never mind,
perhaps there will be no need to hope that Mrs Geoff should be a better
Christian than her mother-in-law. Perhaps there will be no Mrs Geoff. It
may come to nothing after all.”
“Oh, Anna, how cruel you are!” cried Mrs Underwood. “If it comes to
nothing, what is to become of my boy?”
“Anyhow, let us be thankful that you will get a good deal of misery out
of it, which will be a satisfaction. Go and put on your bonnet—your best
bonnet—and make yourself look nice; we all like you to look nice; and go
off, my dear, upon your charitable mission,” Miss Anna cried.
Was it a charitable mission? The good woman quite thought so as she
drove down the Hampstead slopes and made her way into the heart of
London. She was fluttered and anxious about what she was going to do. The
possible consequences to Geoff were like a tragedy in front of her; but as
for anything else, she was too much confused to realise that this was not the
kindest thing that could be done. Two lonely, fatherless children—orphans
they might be called, for they had nobody to care for them. It was not right

even that two girls of their age should live in a hotel, without so much as a
maid to be with them. To offer them a home, to stretch her own protecting
wing over them, was the natural thing for a woman to do. Certainly it was
the right thing to do. The other question about the property was very vague
in her mind. She could see that her sister was scheming to keep it in her
own hands, but her mind was so confused about it that she could not feel
any guiltiness on the subject. And then the question about Geoff would
come uppermost. She wept a good many quiet tears over this as she drove
along the streets. She had always felt herself a good Christian, but she had
not been pleased when her husband had paid too many visits to the old lady.
The old lady! Looking back, Mrs Underwood, with an effort of memory,
recollected that the old lady had not been so very aged a person. She was
but sixty when she died, and she had lived ten years at least after her son’s
marriage. “About my age!” This conviction surprised Geoff’s mother more
than can be described. She was the old lady now; and this girl would grudge
her her son’s visits, would not let Geoff come to her, would persuade him
that his mother was silly, that she was old-fashioned, that she wanted a great
deal too much attention. She had done all that in her day, and had not
thought it any harm.
These were her thoughts as she went to Piccadilly, crossing through all
those endless streets. When she came near the hotel some one passed her
quickly, holding up an umbrella, so that she could not see his face. But her
heart gave a thump at the sight of him. If it was not Geoff she had never
seen any one so like him. Down to the very coat he wore, the spats which
she had herself buttoned for him, his walk—all was Geoff. Had he been
here forestalling her? Had he come and made his own advances already,
without losing a moment? Her heart sank, but a wild curiosity took
possession of her. She would see for herself how he had been received,
what had happened. What could happen but that this girl, any girl, would
throw herself at the first word into the arms of Geoff? It was not often a girl
had such a chance. “Look at Anna,” she said to herself, “so pretty, so clever,
and never married at all.” Besides, since Anna’s time there were, everybody
said, twice as many women as there used to be, and a man like Geoff, if
such a thing was to be found, was more and more precious than ever before.
Ah, there could be no doubt how he would be received. Perhaps by this
time it was all settled, and the girls were talking of her as the old lady, and
planning how she was to be kept at arm’s length. She wept once more, then

G
dried her eyes, and armed herself for what might be awaiting her. What if
that little thing should rush into her arms and tell her—giving her kisses that
would not be genuine, that would mean no affection to her? But even that
she would have to put up with. She remembered—with how many
compunctions, though thirty years too late—how the old lady—poor old
lady!—had made little attempts to propitiate her, and tell her pretty things
that Henry had said of her, and give her to believe that nothing but praise
and sweetness was ever spoken of her between the mother and the son. It
would be her turn now to show herself in the best light to her daughter-in-
law, to conciliate her, and appeal to her tolerance. Alas! how time goes on,
turning triumph into humiliation, and the first into the last.
CHAPTER XIII
EOFF had not thought it necessary to say anything about his intention,
but he had made up his mind during the vigil of the night to act for
himself. He did not go to the chambers, which he shared with a friend,
or to his club for his letters, or to any of his usual haunts; but went direct to
Piccadilly, which is a long way from Grove Road. A long walk is sometimes
an advantage when you are going to have a decisive interview; but
Geoffrey, it is to be feared, did not do himself much good by thinking of the
hostile party whom he was about to meet. They were not only not
disagreeable to him, but the very sight of them stilled every warlike
inclination in his breast. Not only he did not want to fight with them, but his
desire was to take up their cause and fight it for them, against himself and
all belonging to him—which it will readily be perceived was not a way to
do any good. He saw them only too clearly in his mind’s eye: the one sister
standing a little in advance of the other; the eyes of Grace shining with
courage and high spirit, while those softer lights under Milly’s soft brows
rose upon him from time to time, always with a new eloquence of appeal.
“If she were to ask me for my head, I think I would give it her,” Geoff said
to himself; but there was no chance that she would ask for his head. He
thought of them as he had seen them first, seated close by each other,
turning two wistful, pale faces and eyes wet with tears upon him as he stood
at the door, alarmed by his own intrusion. Their black dresses and their
piteous looks had made an impression upon him which would never be
effaced; and he had heard their story with a knot in his throat, ready to weep

for very sympathy. When the same wonderful pair had arrived at Grove
Road, he had been too much startled to know what to do or say. But now he
was going to them with all his wits about him, no surprise possible, to open
up all the question, and discuss it amicably, and help them, if it was possible
to help those whose cause was so entirely in opposition to his own.
Grace and Milly were together as usual in the sitting-room, which had
become by this time so intolerable to them. They were both very much
surprised when he came in. They rose to their feet in wonder and partial
dismay. They had been talking over all their affairs, and had come to a kind
of conclusion between themselves; but this was a circumstance upon which
they had not calculated. They had thought it very unlikely that they should
hear anything more of Grove Road unless they themselves took the
initiative. They gazed at each other with their usual mutual consultation,
bewildered; but as soon as they came to themselves they too were very
anxious to be polite to the enemy.
“I hope you will not think me intrusive,” he said.
“Oh, no; we do not know any one—” This was intended to mean that a
visitor was welcome; but the speech was broken off in consequence of the
embarrassment of the speaker.
“If what we think is true, we—my mother and I—should be more to you
than anybody else in England,” Geoff said.
“But if what we think is true,” cried Grace, “or rather what you think—
for we know nothing—we are enemies, are we not?”
“I don’t see why we should be. I have come to tell you all I know. You
ought to have at least what information we can give you in order to find out
who you really are, Miss——”
“Yorke,” cried Grace, “Yorke! that is our name; and as for finding out
who we are, that is quite unnecessary. We may be strangers here,” the girl
cried, holding her head high. “We have been very unhappy and very
unfortunate, oh, miserable here! But when we are at home everybody
knows who we are. We are as well known as you or any one. The Yorkes of
Quebec—you have only to ask any Canadian. If you think it is necessary to
find out a family for us, you are very, very much mistaken! England is not
all the world. We are unknown only here.”
Her eyes flashed, her cheeks coloured as she spoke; all her pride was
roused; and Milly held up her head proudly too. They had not been used to

be nobodies, and they did not understand nor feel disposed to submit to it.
This was a totally different thing from claiming their rights.
“I beg your pardon,” he said. “You know I don’t mean anything
disrespectful; but you know also that there is another question. It is not as
Miss Yorke that there can be any question between you and me. It is as the
daughter of my mother’s cousin, Leonard Crosthwaite. Will you let me
explain to you how the matter stands between us, if you are his children?
This is how it is. Abraham Crosthwaite, an old unmarried uncle, died
twenty years ago, leaving his money to Leonard, who had disappeared some
time before. It was an old will, and it was supposed by everybody that
Uncle Abraham had altered it in behalf of his nieces, Anna, and Mary, who
is my mother. But he did not alter it; and when he died this was the state of
affairs. Leonard Crosthwaite had not been heard of for ten years: everybody
thought him dead; he had been advertised for, and had not replied. My
mother and Aunt Anna were the next of kin. They succeeded without a
question. Everybody had expected them to succeed. Uncle Abraham had
announced over and over again his intention to give them everything he
had. My mother had taken care of him for some years; of Aunt Anna he had
always been proud. I never in my life heard any question of their rights,
until all at once, a fortnight since, some one appeared at our house calling
himself Leonard Crosthwaite——”
“Mr Geoffrey, papa would never have said he was any one, unless it had
been true.”
“I cast no doubt upon that. I tell you only of our wonder, our alarm. My
mother thought she recognised something in him like her cousin. Aunt Anna
from the first said no; but you will take these statements for what they are
worth. Aunt Anna would naturally resist anything that threatened to
interfere with her comfort. My mother, on the other hand, is easily
persuaded. I, of course, could say nothing on one side or the other. The
gentleman I saw had every appearance of being a gentleman, and a man of
truth and honour——”
Milly gave him a grateful glance behind her sister—a glance of tender
thanks which made his heart beat. As for Grace, she bowed her head with a
sort of stately assent.
“He was to come back; but we heard no more of him, until I came here
to this hotel, and was entirely puzzled, as you know. I saw you, and thought

you were very kind to interest yourselves about a person whom you had
never heard of. When I saw you yesterday at Hampstead, I thought again it
was kindness merely—that you had heard of the man of whom I was in
search——”
“You must have thought us very extraordinary to interfere.”
“I thought you,” he said somewhat incoherently;—“but it does not
matter what I thought you. Circumstances make us, as you say, almost
enemies, who might have been—who ought to have been, dear friends.”
They both looked at him with melting eyes. “Yes,” said Grace, with a
beautiful flush of sympathy, “cousins, almost like brothers and sisters. And
perhaps, that may be still!” she cried. “Listen, this is what we had made up
our minds to——”
“Let me say out my say first,” he said with a not very cheerful smile.
“You are strangers, and you are too young to know how to manage such a
complicated case. If you are Crosthwaites, and my cousin Leonard’s
daughters, it will be best for us in the long run, as well as for you, that it
should be proved—that the question should be settled. And you cannot
know of yourselves what is necessary. I have brought you the names of two
good lawyers—respectable, honourable men, either of whom will advise
you wisely.” He took out a piece of paper as he spoke and handed it to
Grace. “With either of these you will be safe,” he said.
The girls looked at each other for a moment; then Grace rose up and held
out her hand to her adversary, seeing him through wet eyes. “Cousin
Geoffrey,” she said, “I am sure you must be of the same blood with our
father, for this is exactly what he would have done. Let us call you cousin: it
is all we want, Milly and I. We had made up our minds this morning to
forget it altogether, never to say another word or think of it any more.”
Milly’s hand was held out too, though more timidly. She did not say
anything, but she looked a great deal more than Grace had said, he thought.
He had risen too in a tremulous state of excitement and generous
enthusiasm. It was only his left hand that he had to give to the younger
sister, but even in that fact there seemed to both of them something special
—a closer approach.
“I do not know what to say,” he said, “dear, brave, generous girls! To
have you will be worth a great deal more than the money. We are friends for
ever, whatever may come of it.” Then he kissed first one hand and then the

other with quivering lips, the girls, blushing both, drawing close to each
other, abashed, yet touched beyond description with a kind of sacred joy
and awe. The emotion was exquisite, novel beyond anything in their
experience; and the young man, thus suddenly bound to them, was as much
affected as they.
“But we cannot accept this, all the same,” he said at last. “I should say
all the less:—it must be investigated, and everything found out that can be
found out.”
“We do not wish it; we will not have it,” the girls cried both together.
But Geoffrey shook his head.
“You have nobody else to look after your interests. I am your next
friend,” he said. “Don’t you know that is how we do in English law? Those
who are too young or too helpless to plead for themselves plead by their
next friend. And that is the most fit office for me.”
“Then that makes England a little like what we thought it: not like the
cruel, cruel place,” cried Grace, “that it has been to Milly and me.”
“It has been cruel,” he said tenderly, with a voice which had tears in it,
like their eyes. And there was not much more said, for they were all touched
to that point at which words become vulgar and unmeaning. He went away
shortly after, his heart swelling with tender brotherliness, friendship, and all
the enthusiasm of generosity. The mere suggestion of their sacrifice had
made him capable of that which had seemed so terrible to him an hour ago.
He went out with his heart beating, full of high purpose and inspiration,
quite happy, though that which had made him so miserable yesterday
appeared now assured and certain. Such is the unreasonableness of youth.
When he had gone the girls turned to each other half laughing, half
crying. They were happy too in this little encounter of generosity and
impulsive feeling. “That is what we thought Englishmen were like,” said
Grace.
“And he is the first Englishman we have known,” said Milly.
“Very different from Dr Brewer,” cried the elder sister.
Milly looked up, wondering, with a little “Oh!” of startled, almost
wounded feeling. To compare Geoffrey to Dr Brewer!—or to any one, she
whispered deep down in her being, out of hearing even of herself.

They had scarcely recovered from the commotion of this crisis when
some one again knocked at the door. “It will be that doctor,” Grace said
under her breath; and she was in no hurry to reply. It was only upon a
second summons that she went forward slowly, reluctantly to open the door.
And there outside stood Geoffrey’s mother, somewhat fluttered, somewhat
red, not knowing very well how to meet the two enemies of her peace. She
came in with a little eagerness and kissed them both; and then she delivered
herself breathlessly of her mission.
“I said I would come and see you to-day. Oh, my dears! I am afraid you
thought Anna was not very kind yesterday. She is an invalid, you know; she
has tempers now and then. Oh, I don’t mean you to think she has a bad
temper or is unkind. Nothing at all like that; but only—you can imagine if
she had a bad night or a little extra ache. We ought all to be very forbearing,
you know, and put up with people who are often in pain. Dear children!
when I see you here in an inn, and think how many empty rooms we have
got at home—there are more rooms, a great many more rooms than you
would think in the Grove Road houses. And though Anna lives with me, the
house, you know—the house is mine.”
They did not know very well what answer to make, but they put her in
the best chair the room contained, and sat round her listening, which was, of
course, the best thing to do.
“Yes, the house is mine. I am the real mistress of it, though Anna often
takes a great deal upon her; but I don’t mind, I really don’t mind. And when
I have set my heart upon anything she never interferes. Do you know what I
have come for now? I have come to take you both back with me home.”
“Home!” the girls drew a long breath after the word. They seemed
scarcely able to realise to themselves what it meant.
“Yes, home. I have set my heart upon it. If you are Leonard
Crosthwaite’s daughters—I declare,” cried Mrs Underwood, her real
feelings breaking in through all the flutter of words that had been put into
her mouth—“I declare I don’t know whether I wish you to be Crosthwaites
or not! Two nice girls—two dear girls; I am sure you have been nicely
brought up, and that your mother is a nice woman. Poor dear!” said the kind
soul, wiping her eyes and forgetting her rôle altogether. “My heart bleeds
for her, poor dear!”

This brought the girls, who could doubt, clinging round her, hanging
about her. Their soft touch, their tender faces went to her heart. No woman
who is good for anything, not even the jealous mother of an only son,
defending him from all feminine wolves, can resist the contact of innocent
girls—creatures of her own kind. It was a novel pleasure to Mrs
Underwood, who never had a daughter, and had always been an exclusively
devoted parent, absorbed in her son. She put one arm round each and kissed
them again, this time in all truth and tenderness, and with her heart full of
natural feeling. “Will she have heard of it yet?” she said in a tone of tender
awe.
“Oh, not for nearly a week yet,” the girls cried. And Mrs Underwood
wept in sympathy.
“Poor dear! Oh, God help her, poor dear! I know what it is myself; but I
was with him till the last moment. She will think if she had been here it
would never have happened. Oh, God help her, poor dear! Then,” she added
a minute after, as if this had been a reason, “you must get your boxes ready
and come with me at once, my poor children; I cannot leave you here. I tell
you I don’t know whether I shall be glad or sorry, if it is settled that you are
Leonard Crosthwaite’s children. Sorry, I suppose, because I shall lose my
money; but now that I know you I should be almost as sorry to lose you.”
This, though it was sudden, was real and true; for the kind woman felt
that she had done them injustice. They were not dangerous adventuresses,
hunting Geoff, but good girls, breaking their hearts for their mother, and
counting the days till she should hear that terrible news. Mrs Underwood
jumped into enthusiasm for them because she had been so much afraid of
them before.
“You shall not lose either us or the money,” said Grace. “We had
resolved before Mr Geoffrey was here, that we should do nothing more and
think nothing more about it. If papa had meant us to do anything he would
have said so. We made up our minds to this—this morning, before Mr
Geoffrey was here.”
“My dears!” said Mrs Underwood, bewildered. She had no head for
business, and she could not understand more than one thing at a time. She
withdrew her arm a little and said doubtfully, “Then Geoffrey has been
here?”

“He came—in the most generous, noble way. I am so glad, I am so
thankful,” cried Grace, “and so is Milly—that we had quite made up our
minds before.”
Mrs Underwood breathed forth a sigh of resignation. “I must hear all
about this after,” she said, faltering; “but, my dears, the fly is standing at the
door, and it is no use keeping it waiting. Put up your things as quickly as
you can. Anna thinks—I mean I feel quite sure that you ought not to be
staying at an inn in your circumstances. If your luggage is too heavy for the
fly the heavy boxes can be sent afterwards. Of course you have all your
coloured things, poor dears; and to go into such deep mourning with
nobody to advise you! The best thing will be to bring just what is necessary.
Run and put your things together and I will wait here.”
Then there passed between Milly and Grace a final consultation, several
volumes in one glance. “Do you really mean that we are to go with you—to
go home with you? Do you really want to have us?” said Grace with
quivering lips.
“Oh, my dear, of course, of course I want you! And Anna—well, we
need never mind Anna. You will amuse her too. She is very fond of clever
people, and you are clever; at least you are clever, my dear,” Mrs
Underwood said, patting Grace upon the shoulder; “and you are the little
silly one, you will just do for me,” she said, putting her arm through
Milly’s. Then her countenance clouded over. The girls did not know what to
make of it. They could not hear the voice which was in Mrs Underwood’s
ears—her own voice, saying, “I wonder why he should always be going to
see the old lady—when he has me?” She gazed into Milly’s face and
wondered wistfully whether it would frown at her, and find fault with Geoff
for his attention to his mother. “It is nothing, my dear, nothing,” she said,
recovering herself; “a little pain that I am quite used to. Go and get ready,
like dear children; it will be such a surprise for Geoff.”
Thus Mrs Underwood carried out Miss Anna’s plans. That lady smiled
when she heard the arrival, the boxes carried up-stairs, the sound of the
young voices in the house. She thought it was all her doing, and that Geoff
was a young precisian and his mother a fool, and she herself the only
member of the family capable of doing anything in its defence.
CHAPTER XIV

IT was, as his mother foresaw, a great surprise for Geoff, to see Grace and
Milly established under her wing when he reached home. They seemed to
have each got her corner of the drawing-room, as if they had been there
all their lives. The windows with that great distance stretching blue and far
underneath, and the smoke, which was London, at their feet, attracted them
both—a standing wonder and miracle; but Milly had brought down her little
work-basket, and placed it on a corner of Mrs Underwood’s special table,
and there she had settled herself as if she belonged to it; while Grace had
got to the books which stood in low bookcases on either side of the
fireplace. For the first hour Geoffrey really believed, with a wonder which
he could hardly restrain, that his mother had broken loose from her life-long
bondage to her sister, and that this bold step had really been taken by herself
on her own responsibility. It was herself who undeceived him on this point.
When the dressing-bell rang, and the girls went up-stairs to prepare for
dinner, he put his arm round her and thanked and praised her. “It was like
yourself to do it, mother,” he said warmly. “When you follow your own
kind heart, you always do what is best.”
“Yes, my dear,” said Mrs Underwood, faltering; “indeed, indeed, I hope
it is for the best. At least, that has been my meaning, dear. And Anna said
——”
“Anna?” cried Geoff, with a cloud coming over his face.
“She thought it was the only wise thing. But she is not to be supposed to
know anything about it,” his mother said, lowering her voice and holding
up a finger at him. “You must be very careful. If she looks as if she did not
like it, you are not to take any notice. I was not to tell anybody she had a
hand in it; but of course I never meant to conceal it from you.”
Geoff was so angry and disconcerted, and so sick of the domestic fraud
into which his mother had been beguiled, that he went off to his room
without a word, leaving her sadly put out, but quite unable to divine what
could have offended him. However, by the time he had changed his dress,
Geoff, all alone in his room, burst out into a sudden laugh. “She is an old
witch,” he said to himself; “she is as clever as—the old gentleman himself.”
He was ashamed of the artifice, but could not help being diverted by the
skill of that unseen helms-woman who managed everything her own way.
Miss Anna came to dinner as usual, leaning on her stick, and she
received the girls with stately surprise, as if their presence was quite

unlooked for but gradually unbent, and by degrees grew brilliant in her talk,
and amused and delighted them. Geoffrey looked on with a mixture of
shame, amusement, and contempt, at this pretended thawing and acceptance
of what she could not prevent. She acted her part admirably, though now
and then he surprised a glance of satisfaction and secret triumph which
made him furious. But she kept up her show of reluctance so far that no one
was invited into her boudoir that evening. They went back to the drawing-
room again after dinner, where Geoffrey found both the girls standing
within the half-drawn curtains of the window, looking down upon the
London lights. They stood close together, talking low, talking of the great
city all muffled and mysterious in mist, and smoke, and darkness, at their
feet. When Geoffrey joined them, they stopped their conversation. “I am
afraid I have interrupted you,” he said.
“Oh no, no! We can’t help talking of one thing. It is wearisome to other
people; but after all it is only a few days. We were wondering where it was
that he is lying,” said Milly.
Geoff pointed out to them as well as he could where the spot was.
“We have so often talked of seeing London, and thought what it would
be like and what we should like most in it,” said Grace. “We little thought
——”
He seemed to be taken into their confidence as they broke off and stood
gazing with brimming eyes towards the place where their father lay.
“And now you will have no association with London but that of pain,”
he said.
There was a pause, and then it was Milly who replied, “People have been
very kind to us. We can never forget the kindness wherever we may be.”
To this Grace assented with a little reservation. “Yes, we shall never
forget Grove Road—your mother and you, Mr Geoffrey.”
“What!” said Geoff, “are you drawing back already? I was Cousin
Geoffrey this morning; and I do not think I have done anything to forfeit the
name.”
There was a little murmur of apology from both; and there is no telling
how long they might have lingered there, with the light and warmth behind
them, and the wide world of sky and air, and distant mighty multitudinous
life before, had not Mrs Underwood come forward anxiously to see what
was going on. She had begun to feel herself deserted, and to remember

again what she had once felt and said about the old lady. She had not so
much as thought of the old lady since she brought them into the house; but
now the murmur of voices behind the curtain; the natural, inevitable manner
in which Geoff found his way there, the solitude into which she was herself
thrown, brought back all her alarm. “Geoff,” she said, “you must not keep
them in the cold: there is a great draught from that window: we always have
the curtains drawn. Come in, my dears, come in to the light; there has been
so much rain that it is quite cold to-night.”
They came directly, obedient to the call; there was no undutifulness, no
resistance. They must have felt they were doing wrong, they obeyed so
quickly, she thought. But then Mrs Underwood had a very happy hour.
Geoffrey took up the evening paper which had been brought in for him—
Miss Anna having previously finished it and sent it with a message that
there was nothing in it—while Grace returned to her examination of the
books, and Milly settled herself by Mrs Underwood’s side. She was glad to
see that he could still think of politics, although they were here. Miss Anna,
in order that she might come down gradually from her eminence, had left
the door of communication open between her room and this one, and
sometimes launched a word at them, stimulating their somewhat languid
talk. For neither Mrs Underwood nor Milly were great talkers; they sat
together, finding great fellowship in this mere vicinity, now and then
exchanging a word as they lent each other the scissors or the thread. And
Geoff read his newspaper calmly in this calm interior, where there was still
no appearance of any power or passion which might either break old ties or
form new.
Thus the soft evening sped along. It gave Mrs Underwood a little tremor
to see that when Geoff laid aside his paper he went to the table at which
Grace was seated with a number of books round her, and began an earnest
conversation. But she reflected within herself that it was not Grace but the
little one, and took comfort. Perhaps she would not have been so much
consoled had she known what the subject of the conversation was. Grace
was so buried in the books which she had collected from the shelves, that
she scarcely noticed, till he spoke, the shadow which was hovering between
her and the light.
“I want to tell you,” he said—and she started, looking up at him with a
little impatience, yet—as remembering the calls of politeness, and that she

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