Climate change in Africa
- 1. Climate change : Impacts and Adaptation Camilla Toulmin IIED Cambridge February 1 st 2011
- 2. What we know about climate change CO 2 in atmosphere rising faster than anticipated by IPCC Warming of climate system Systematic change in rainfall in most regions Ocean temperatures up + sea level rise Loss of arctic sea ice extent More intense & extreme weather events
- 3. Africa - Water and rainfall Much more intense water cycle Dry areas increasingly drought prone (Northern and Southern Africa) Increased rainfall + greater flood risk (East Africa) Uncertain rainfall trends West Africa Effects on health, livelihoods, water security – women and girls worst hit Conflicts and trade-offs: shared river basins, hydro vs irrigation, herding vs farming, urban water transfers By 2020, >250m will suffer increased w stress
- 5. Ouagadougou Floods
- 10. 10 HADLEY
- 11. Africa - Food and farming Projected reductions in crop yields in dry areas of 50% by 2020 Low lying coastal agriculture at risk from sea-water flooding and salinisation Shifts in grazing lands, livestock disease, crop-livestock relations In very few areas, increased temp brings longer growing season, improved farming conditions Major shifts in land productivity and values eg. irrigated land in dry areas, flood prone lands
- 12. What measures to help farmers cope? Research and technology Information and communication tools Recognising resource rights Bridging local and modern science Investing in social infrastructure and learning Investing in concrete infrastructure Market engagement Better governance
- 13. Adapting to climate change – dealing with risk and uncertainty Building resilience: what’s the difference between risk and uncertainty? Diversification Farmland and crop contracts Insurance Collective mechanisms Lessons from adaptation to drought Community based adaptation: building local innovation systems
- 17. Ecosystems, forests and biodiversity Poor depend most on environmental assets + ecosystem services Economic value of current rate of loss estimated at US$2-5 trillion per year Increased stress from changes in temp, rainfall accelerate losses Thresholds and tipping points
- 18. Cities and climate change Urban regions most at risk of flooding located in middle and low income nations – Nile delta, Gulf of Guinea, Bay of Bengal, cities of Maputo, Beira, Cape Town, Durban, Mumbai, Shanghai 95% global population growth in next 30 years will take place in cities in developing world Slums 50%+ of urban population and most vulnerable to flooding + land slides Costs of adaptation to 1m sea-level rise could cost 5-10% of GDP Current focus on low C investment needs complement from adaptation for most vulnerable
- 19. Urban population in low-elevation coastal zone
- 22. Politics, conflict and security Climate change brings significant political consequences due to uneven impact, winners and losers – globally, regionally, within countries Large scale migration, impoverishment, people seeking new land bring potential for conflict and security Especially where guns widespread, young men without jobs, limited government capacity = political opportunism
- 23. Unintended consequences of climate policy Large scale land acquisitions – food and biofuels – environmental and social costs
- 27. New market opportunities? Agriculture a principal source of GHG emissions – can emission reductions be sold to voluntary/formal C market? Defining/measuring GHG service Minimising transaction costs Risks of smallholder evictions REDD+ funding Defining/measuring C service Managing the funds Risks of smallholder evictions
- 31. Lots of questions….. What does climate resilient development look like? What best means to support adaptation – funds, channels, level? If accountable govt is key, how to support this? Any positive opportunities from climate change available to poor? Does financial crisis make progress easier or harder – can we turn crisis into opportunity? What impact $200/b oil on agriculture, transport, trade?
Editor's Notes
- #19: They house most economic growth - 87% of total GDP in low and middle income nations now from industry and services - Successful economies need well-functioning urban centres Urban populations already facing difficulties with extreme weather events - High vulnerability of infants & young children including impacts on long term development as well as more immediate impacts - Disruptions that affect urban livelihoods Urban centres / districts at risk of sea-level rise - on coasts with settlements and water sources at risk Urban populations that cannot adapt - Those that cannot change locations Urban populations with the least resilience - There will be lots of disasters; how large their impact is dependent on what is done in advance regarding preparedness Successful adaptation not possible if local government refuses to work with the poor and sees them as a problem Building adaptive capacity in tens of thousands of localities to the many impacts of climate change that: supports & works with reduction of risks to other environmental hazards is strongly pro-poor builds on knowledge acquired over the last 20 years on reducing risk from disasters is based on and builds a strong local knowledge base of climate variability and of likely local impacts from climate-change scenarios encourages and supports actions that reduce risks (and vulnerabilities) now, while recognizing the importance of measures taken now for needed long-term changes
- #22: Date
- #32: CAPAs and LAPAs driving NAPAs Learn from good experiences e.g. Durban at city level Explore synergies between local development and adaptation Get the attention of the ‘development’ bits of local government Build on innovations in local development successes community-led & municipal led ‘slum’ and squatter upgrading & housing finance; a lot of innovation to draw on