Climate Change Research Needs: Sectoral Impact Analysis, Vulnerability & Risk Assessment
Download as PPTX, PDF2 likes987 views
The document outlines essential climate change research needs focused on sectoral impact analysis, vulnerability and risk assessments. It emphasizes the importance of common methodologies, adaptation options, and the relationship between mitigation and adaptation strategies in addressing climate change impacts. Specific adaptation measures and examples are provided, particularly for the agricultural sector, highlighting the vulnerabilities faced by communities and the need for robust response capacity.
Climate Change Research Needs: Sectoral Impact Analysis, Vulnerability & Risk Assessment
- 1. Climate Change Research Needs: Sectoral Impact Analysis, Vulnerability & Risk Assessment Rosa T. Perez, Ph. D. Member, NPTE Climate Change Commission LCCAP Orientation Meeting with SUCs 16 March 2017 Recto Room, Senate of the Philippines
- 2. NPTE Priority R&D Topics for 2017 1. Common DRR-CCA Methodology. 2. Climate change modeling at regional and national level (town/level) 3. Attribution of impacts to anthropogenic climate change 4. Sectoral and integrated impact studies and risk and vulnerability assessments (national, riverbasin/island-wide, local) – Heat/drought- and flood- resistant crops – – Freshwater enhancement technology – Climate change and human security – Water, energy and carbon. – Climate Resiliency of local communities in different ecosystems – Improved Understanding of the Impacts of Hydro-meteorological Hazards–
- 3. NPTE Priority R&D Topics for 2017 7. Risk-sharing mechanisms – Index-Based Insurance – 8. Solar Radiation Management – 9. Coastal & Oceanic Adaptation : Science & Technology Research Instruction Development Education 10.Science-based blue economy (BEST H2O STEWARDS)
- 4. The Basic Adaptation Planning Process • The systematic process deals with all questions relevant for planning adaptation. • Going one step at a time avoids mental blocks due to the over-complex challenge. Four steps: (1) Assess Risk/Impacts/Vulnerability (2) Identify adaptation options (3) Select adaptation measures (4) Develop an M&E framework
- 5. Vulnerability Assessment 1. Common DRR-CCA Methodology. V= f(E, S, AC) Source: IPCC- WG2, AR4
- 6. Understanding Vulnerability V= f(E, S, AC)
- 7. CCA and DRR
- 8. Reconciling Vulnerability and Risk
- 9. Stressors: Climate variability and change State of the system concern Harm to the system Generic Scheme Sensitivity Susceptibility Adaptive Capacity IPCC AR4 Exposure Vulnerability V=f(E,S,AC) Exposure Vulnerability Hazard Impact/Risk R=f(H E V) IPCC AR5 Reconciling Vulnerability and Risk
- 10. Planning Horizons Time Scales Relevant for Development
- 11. Defining adaptation Greenhouse gas emissions Climate change impacts Global climate change: change in mean global temperature, changes in regional temperature, rainfall, pressure, circulation, etc. Mitigation: reduce emissions, reducing magnitude of CC Adaptation: reduce vulnerability to CC impacts, reduce losses Adjustments in human and natural systems, in response to actual or expected climate stimuli or their effects, that moderate harm or exploit beneficial opportunities. Adaptation and mitigation are complementary strategies Source: UNDP
- 12. In reality, adaptation stands for a continuum of approaches. Often, ‘adaptation’ activities are linked to more than one category
- 13. 1 Addressing Drivers of Vulnerability 2 Building Response Capacity 3 Managing Climate Risk 4 Confronting Climate Change Increase individual and community buffer Build robust systems for problem-solving Make use of climate information in decision-making Respond directly to CC- related threats Risk of maladaptation Risk of maladaptation Outside the development comfort zone Vulnerability Focus Impact Focus A continuum from development to climate change Need for Climate Information Normal Development Direct Adaptation Measures
- 14. Types of adaptation efforts • “Serendipitous” Adaptation – Activities undertaken to achieve development objectives incidentally achieve adaptation objectives. – The adaptation components of a given activity may be noticed or emphasized only after the fact. • Climate-Proofing of Ongoing Development Efforts – Activities added to an ongoing development initiative to ensure its success under a changing climate. – Adaptation serves as means to achieve development ends.
- 15. Types of adaptation efforts • Discrete Adaptation – Activities undertaken specifically to achieve climate adaptation objectives. – Development activities as means to achieve adaptation ends. • Confronting Climate Change – Actions focus almost exclusively on addressing impacts associated with climate change • typically targeting climate risks that are clearly outside historic climate variability • little bearing on risks that stem from anything other than anthropogenic climate change
- 16. Framing Adaptation 1 Addressing Drivers of Vulnerability 2 Building Response Capacity 3 Managing Climate Risk 4 Confronting Climate Change Increase individual and community buffer Build robust systems for problem-solving Make use of climate information in decision-making Respond directly to CC- related threats Example Diversification of livelihood strategies in areas vulnerable to flooding Example Participatory reforestation in the watershed to combat flood-induced landslide Teaching farmers to collect climate data and integrate it into their planting decisions Managing coral reefs in response to widespread coral bleaching Vulnerability Focus Impact Focus Need for Climate Information
- 17. CC Detection and Attribution
- 18. CC Detection and Attribution
- 19. “Cascading” impacts of climate change from physical climate through ecosystems on people can now be detected along chains of evidence.
- 20. Climate Change Impact Chains Climate Change Source: Adelphi/EURAC 2014. Impacts on Ecosystems (groundwater recharge, availability of fertile soil and biodiversity) Impacts on Ecosystem Services (provision of food and water) Impacts on Natural Resource Extraction (agriculture, fishery, forestry) Impacts on Natural Resource Processing (industry and services) Impacts on the Social Sphere (individual, societal groups) CC impacts on ecosystem services and natural resources directly affect people’s livelihoods in developing countries Changing temperatures & rainfall
- 21. Philippines REGION 8 PROVINCE Eastern Samar Borongan City ARCs ADAPTATION MEASURES • Improve coco-cropping system (e.g. introduction of livestock, forage) • Replanting using disease and climate- resistant variety • Pest control • Cover copping/mulching to conserve soil moisture • Value-adding of coco products VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT POTENTIAL SOCIO- ECONOMIC IMPACT • Loss of crops and properties due to flooding • copra production yield • household income POTENTIAL BIOPHYSICAL IMPACT • Excessive rainfall causing diseases of the fruit and leaves • Die-off from water- logging • Desiccation of fronds and shedding of young nuts from drought • Increasing incidence of pest and diseases • Uprooted, fallen trees from severe storm winds • Yield variability System of Interest SOCIETY CLIMATE STIMULUS* • Seasonal mean temperature • Drier dry season (drought), wetter wet season (floods) • intensity and frequency of heavy rains CC Impact Chain for Coconut Farming ARC Coco Producing Households Coconut Production Exposure Potential Impact Adaptive Capacity Vulnerability Sensitivity High vulnerability of small coconut farms and coco-producing farmers ADAPTIVE CAPACITY • Agri-business potential • Xx km of farm roads • Limited training for coco farming technologies • Farmers associations exist • ESSU can provide TA
- 22. - END – Thank You !
Editor's Notes
- #17: Adaptation response Two factors appear to predominate in shaping an adaptation response: existing capacity of those responding level of information available about expected climate change At one far end: adaptation efforts overlap almost completely with traditional development practice, where activities take little or no account of specific climate change impacts. At the far opposite end: highly specialized activities are developed in response to observed or anticipated changes in climate (and their effects) In between: broad spectrum of activities with gradations of “normal” development and climate change-focused activities. Two roughly distinct perspectives inform how people approach the challenge of adaptation: one focuses on creating response mechanisms to specific impacts associated with climate change, and the other on reducing vulnerability to climate change through building capacities that can help deal with a range of impacts. The first approach uses understood impacts as a starting point for distinguishing between adaptation and “normal” development. A more vulnerability-focused approach, on the other hand, starts by targeting the underlying factors that cause climate change to be harmful. In practice, of course, many instances of adaptation fall between the extremes of vulnerability and impacts foci: actions are taken with a specific type of impact in mind, but nevertheless involve activities with more general benefits in reducing vulnerability. One way of framing this diversity is as a continuum between “pure” development activities on one hand and very explicit climate change measures on the other.