CO2 2016 Blast Cap - LeadCast (Forecasting Leads)
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The document discusses how weather affects demand and can be used to predict leads in sales strategy. It outlines a four-step process involving facts, processes, predictions, and benefits, emphasizing the correlation between temperature, search volume, and lead generation. Additionally, it highlights the use of long-term and short-term planning based on weather data to inform marketing strategies and business decisions.
CO2 2016 Blast Cap - LeadCast (Forecasting Leads)
- 2. LEADCAST Lee Kennedy, Analytics Director, Coalmarch Productions
- 3. FORECASTING YOUR LEADS How understanding the relationship between weather and demand can help you craft a smarter sales strategy.
- 4. DOES THIS LOOK FAMILIAR?
- 5. DOES THIS LOOK FAMILIAR?
- 6. DOES THIS LOOK FAMILIAR?
- 7. DOES THIS LOOK FAMILIAR?
- 8. IS THERE A BETTER WAY TO DO THIS? CAN WE PREDICT NEXT YEAR’S LEADS? CAN WE ANTICIPATE CUSTOMER DEMAND?
- 9. YES.
- 10. WE’RE GONNA HAVE TO SCIENCE THE SHIT OUT OF IT
- 11. STEP ONE: WHAT ARE THE FACTS? STEP TWO: WHAT IS THE PROCESS? STEP THREE: THE PREDICTION STEP FOUR: HOW DOES THAT HELP ME?
- 12. STEP ONE: WHAT ARE THE FACTS? STEP TWO: WHAT IS THE PROCESS? STEP THREE: THE PREDICTION STEP FOUR: HOW DOES THAT HELP ME?
- 13. Fact #1: The weather (temperature) is strongly correlated with search volume. PREDICTING NEXT YEAR’S LEADS TEMP. = SEARCH VOL.
- 14. Fact #2: That search volume represents the total opportunity available in the market. PREDICTING NEXT YEAR’S LEADS TEMP. = SEARCH VOL.TEMP. = SEARCH VOL. = OPPORTUNITY ORGANIC PPC LOCAL
- 15. ORGANIC PPC LOCAL Fact #3: Your visibility in the search engines dictates how many leads you can convert. PREDICTING NEXT YEAR’S LEADS TEMP. = SEARCH VOL. = OPPORTUNITYTEMP. = SEARCH VOL. = OPPORTUNITY ≈ LEADS
- 16. STEP ONE: WHAT ARE THE FACTS? STEP TWO: WHAT IS THE PROCESS? STEP THREE: THE PREDICTION STEP FOUR: HOW DOES THAT HELP ME?
- 17. If the temperature in a target market goes up, will more people search for your services online? TEMPERATURE AND SEARCH VOLUME
- 18. TEMPERATURE AND SEARCH VOLUME NOAA’s Climate Data Online
- 19. TEMPERATURE AND SEARCH VOLUME Google Trends
- 20. TEMPERATURE AND SEARCH VOLUME Location: Las Vegas Industry: Pest Control Temperature vs Search Volume, Las Vegas
- 21. As we plot the two graphs, we can determine the influence that temperature has on search volume. TEMPERATURE AND SEARCH VOLUME
- 22. If the overall search volume for your services goes up, will your website get more traffic? SEARCH VOLUME AND WEBSITE TRAFFIC
- 23. AKA, your visibility in the search engines. SEARCH VOLUME AND WEBSITE TRAFFIC
- 24. SEARCH VOLUME AND WEBSITE TRAFFIC Google Analytics
- 25. SEARCH VOLUME AND WEBSITE TRAFFIC Location: Las Vegas Industry: Pest Control Search Volume vs Website Traffic, Las Vegas
- 26. If your website traffic goes up, will you get more leads? WEBSITE TRAFFIC AND LEADS
- 27. AKA, your website conversion rate. WEBSITE TRAFFIC AND LEADS
- 28. WEBSITE TRAFFIC AND LEADS Location: Las Vegas Industry: Pest Control Website Traffic vs Leads, Las Vegas
- 29. PROGRESS.
- 30. STEP ONE: WHAT ARE THE FACTS? STEP TWO: WHAT IS THE PROCESS? STEP THREE: THE PREDICTION STEP FOUR: HOW DOES THAT HELP ME?
- 35. STEP ONE: WHAT ARE THE FACTS? STEP TWO: WHAT IS THE PROCESS? STEP THREE: THE PREDICTION STEP FOUR: HOW DOES THAT HELP ME?
- 36. #1: LONG TERM PLANNING Determine marketing spend based on expected opportunity captured.
- 37. #1: LONG TERM PLANNING =LeadCast
- 38. #1: LONG TERM PLANNING Revenue goal = $1.5 million Revenue from leads = $1 million
- 39. #1: LONG TERM PLANNING Revenue goal = $1.5 million Revenue from leads = $1 millionRevenue from leads = $1.5 million
- 40. #2: SHORT TERM PLANNING Use 10 day weather forecasts to make super accurate predictions.
- 41. #3: BE AN INFORMED BUSINESS OWNER Investigate and report on performance in the context of weather.
- 42. What you are talking about. BASIC SLIDE Do Science. Plan Better. Be Informed. LEADCAST.
- 43. FORECASTING YOUR LEADS Lee Kennedy, Analytics Director Coalmarch Productions linkedin.com/in/leelkennedy [email protected] @leelkennedy
Editor's Notes
- #3: Working with statistics, data modeling. One of our data models… I’m talking about it for the first time here at CO2… The reason it’s called...
- #4: Using weather to forecast your leads. I’m going to talk to you about… First, what does planning look like without weather...
- #5: I’m sure you’re all planning for next year...
- #8: This is fine, but its just a guess.
- #9: Can we go from guessing to predicting?
- #10: I’m going to show you that we can...
- #11: I’ve broken this down into four steps.
- #12: How does it help me as a business owner.
- #13: There are three facts that we need to establish...
- #14: As temperature goes up, search volume goes up.
- #15: You can think of opportunity as a pie chart.
- #16: Depends on your visibility.
- #18: The first relationship we’re looking at is...
- #19: NOAA is a government agency… we can pick a market, pick a date range...
- #20: Since 2004… pick the same market and date range...
- #21: Las Vegas… I’ve run a regression analysis on this and the significance is over 99%.
- #22: If temperature goes up a few degrees in the winter...
- #23: Next slide is visibility.
- #25: The tool we use for this...
- #27: Next slide is conversion rate.
- #29: Next slide is PROGRESS.
- #30: Weve established relationships from temperature all the way to leads...
- #31: How does it help me as a business owner.
- #32: Historical temperature, I’m calling TempPast...
- #33: Add in LeadPast...
- #34: There are a few ways to do this but it will look roughly like this...
- #35: And you have your LeadCast.
- #36: How does it help me as a business owner.
- #37: The first way...using LeadCast, determine opportunity, how much you can capture, and decide your marketing spend.
- #38: Use the LeadCast we’ve been looking at...
- #39: You may have a revenue goal of… using LeadCast, you can input your revenue goal and it will give you weekly goals… if organic doesn’t get you there, it will recommend running an aggressive PPC campaign when organic leads drop...
- #40: You can use this in a number of ways… not capturing organic or local, you may invest for Q1 in cleaning up local listings...
- #41: Long term weather forecasts may not be accurate. Even the best models break down after about 2 weeks (weather.com 10 days). Use that 10 days to update your goals… For lawn, we’re working on adding precipitation.
- #42: You can evaluate the performance of your business in the context of weather, not just whether you hit your goals or not. Lets say you finish a week and you exceeded your goals by 40%...
- #43: So there we go.