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Confronting the Food Security Threats from Climate Change -- Grand Junction
- 1. Food Security Challenges in the 21st Century Climate Change, Economic Development, Resource Scarcity, and Population Growth Gerald C. Nelson Professor Emeritus, University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign Presentation at Mesa County Library, August 4, 2014
- 2. Welcome to the Anthropocene! Economist, May 26, 1011
- 3. Food security challenges are unprecedented. By 2050 … • Many more people in developing countries • Between 2000 and 2050, 50 percent increase globally; almost all in developing countries • With higher incomes, they will demand more food quantity and higher quality • The double burden of malnutrition – obesity and hunger side-by-side – will be a much more serious problem • Resource scarcity (water quantity and quality, soil, clean air, biodiversity) becoming more serious • Climate change – a threat multiplier with uncertain outcomes • Reduced productivity of existing varieties of plants and animals and cropping systems in many places Page 3
- 4. Climate change has already affected agriculture
- 5. Chinese rice production has shifted north Page 5
- 6. Coffee production is shifting up the mountains
- 7. Pasta is Threatened because of Durum Wheat Sensitivity to Temperature
- 8. Climate change has already offset research productivity in many places, except US Estimated net impact of climate trends for 1980-2008 on crop yields, divided by the overall yield trend Source: Figure 3 in Lobell, Schlenker, and Page Costa-8 Roberts (2011).
- 9. But the future impacts of climate change on agriculture could be much greater And with widely varying outcomes
- 10. Climate Change from Anthropogenic GHG Emissions, 2000-2050 Precipitation change (mm), 2000-2050 MIROC climate model, RCP 8.5 GDFI climate model, RCP 8.5 Temperature change (°C), average maximum, 2000-2050 MIROC climate model, RCP 8.5 GDFI climate model, RCP 8.5
- 11. Rainfed corn yield change, 2000-2050 Irrigated rice yield change, 2000-2050 MIROC climate model, RCP 8.5 MIROC climate model, RCP 8.5 GFDI climate model, RCP 8.5 GFDI climate model, RCP 8.5
- 12. And it gets much worse after 2050 Climate change impacts on wheat yields with 2030, 2050, and 2080 climate (percent change from 2000) Year Developed Developing Rainfed Irrigated Rainfed Irrigated 2030 -1.3 -4.3 -2.2 -9.0 2050 -4.2 -6.8 -4.1 -12.0 2080 -14.3 -29.0 -18.6 -29.0 Source: Nelson et al, 2010. High productivity irrigated wheat in developing countries affected most strongly
- 13. FAO foresees modest cereal yield improvements to 2050 (but ignores climate change) (kg/ha left-axis, growth percent per annum right-axis) 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 5,000 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 sub-Saharan Africa South Asia Near East & N. Africa Latin America Developing countries World Developed countries East Asia Percent per annum Kt/ha 2006 2050 Growth Source: Alexandratos and Bruinsma (2012). 0.65% p.a. vs. 2% p.a. 1960-2005
- 14. Land use change continues in Latin America and Sub-Saharan Africa (million hectares left-axis, percent change 2005/07 - 2050 right-axis) 11.0 24.2 21.1 0.1 3.4 32 28 24 20 16 12 8 4 0 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Developing countries Latin America sub-Saharan Africa Near East & N. Africa East Asia South Asia Developed countries Percent change 2005/7-2050 Million hectares Irrigated land change, million hectare (left-axis) Rain-fed land change, million hectare (left-axis) Percent change between 2005/07-2050 (right-axis) Source: Alexandratos and Bruinsma (2012).
- 15. Food Security, Farming, and Climate Change to 2050: Key Findings • Agricultural prices increase with GDP and population growth • Prices increase even more because of climate change Source: Nelson et al, 2010.
- 16. Crop prices declined throughout the 20th century Source: Figure 2.1 in Nelson et al, 2010.
- 17. Income and population growth drive prices higher in the 21st century (price increase (%), 2010 – 2050, Baseline economy and demography) Source: Nelson et al, 2010.
- 18. Climate change will cause greater price increases (price increase (%), 2010 – 2050, Baseline economy and demography) Minimum and maximum effect from four climate scenarios Source: Nelson et al, 2010.
- 19. Income and population growth are more ‘important’ than climate change to 2050 (average kilocalories per day) Pessimistic scenario Perfect mitigation 3,600 3,400 3,200 3,000 2,800 2,600 2,400 2,200 2,000 1,800 Kcals/day Optimistic scenario Developed countries All developing countries Low-income developing countries Source: Nelson et al, 2010.
- 20. Three main food security messages for today’s low income countries • Sustainable development is a more important priority than climate change adaptation today • Prepare today for higher temperatures and changes in precipitation in all sectors tomorrow • Invest more in capacity to adapt agriculture • Keep international trade relatively free from barriers • Improve domestic policies that support agriculture • Collect better data today and tomorrow on existing situation and practices • Weather, land cover, water availability, prices, practices
- 21. What is missing in our climate change results? The Lamppost Problem • The models used to analyze the agricultural effects of climate change don’t include effects of • Increasing ozone • Increasing extreme events • Increasing pest and disease pressure • These could swamp the negative effects already quantified, making the challenges much more difficult, even over the next 35 years to 2050.
- 22. Thanks!
Editor's Notes
- #3: Obvious changes – converting forested land to agriculture; damming rivers, to less obvious changes – massive additions of nitrogen to the nitrogen cycle, loss of species, larger brain sizes for mice.
- #11: Source: Downscaled data from AR5 model runs,
- #18: Price increases with perfect mitigation and baseline are Maize – 52% Rice – 29% Wheat – 25%
- #19: Maize price mean increase is 101 % higher; max is 131, min is 83 Rice price mean increase is 55; max is 57, min is 53 Wheat price mean increase is 54; max is 66, min is 45 All these are for the baseline overall scenario
- #20: Key messages With income per capita growth rates in the optimistic scenario, average kcals per day growth very rapidly in the developing countries. Climate change reduces calorie availability, partially offsetting the benefits from income growth The kink around 2025 is due to our assumptions of a switch to celluosic ethanol, reducing biofuels use of food.
- #22: Image source: http://www.flickr.com/photos/morville/4273477501/.