COVID-19 pandemic in Nigeria: Misconception among individuals, impact on animals, and the role of mathematical epidemiologists

© 2020, IJMS. All Rights Reserved 1
Available Online at www.ijms.co.in
Innovative Journal of Medical Sciences 2020; 4(4):1-6
ISSN 2581 – 4346
REVIEW ARTICLE
COVID-19 pandemic in Nigeria: Misconception among individuals, impact on
animals, and the role of mathematical epidemiologists
Oluwasegun M. Ibrahim1
, Damilola D. Ekundayo2
1
Department of Mathematical Sciences, African Institute for Mathematical Sciences, Kigali, Rwanda, 1
Department
of Mathematics, Applied Mathematics Section, University of Benin, Benin City, Nigeria, 2
Department of Science
Education, Biology Section, Abubakar Tafawa Balewa University, Bauchi, Nigeria
Received on: 23 September 2020; Revised on: 25 October 2020; Accepted on: 01 November 2020
ABSTRACT
In March 2020, the World Health Organization declared coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), caused
by the novel severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2, to be a pandemic. Since the declaration,
Nigeria economy has been greatly impacted, thus resulting in a recession. This paper considers a couple of
misconceptions among Nigerian people in the COVID-19 pandemic era, thereby causing the spread of the
novel virus and hence making the situation difficult for the government to handle. In particular, we discuss
the first and second waves of the pandemic as it affects the Nigerian people. The impact of the pandemic
on animals and the role of mathematical epidemiologists in combatting the spread are discussed herein.
We give some recommendations that could be adopted by the government and the good people of Nigeria
to reduce the further spread of the virus.
Keywords: Coronavirus disease 2019, Infectious disease, Mathematical modeling, Misconception,
Nigeria, Pandemic
INTRODUCTION
The emergence of the novel coronavirus otherwise
known as coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19),
which broke out in the Hubei Province of China in
December2019,hasnodoubthurtthesocioeconomic
growth of the world. According to the World Health
Organization (WHO), most people infected with the
novel coronavirus will experience mild-to-moderate
respiratory illness and recover without requiring
special treatment. It is also evident that older people
and those with underlying medical problems such as
cardiovascular disease, diabetes, chronic respiratory
disease, and cancer are more likely to develop
serious illness.[1]
The reward of the successful effort
in containing the COVID-19 infection in Asia came
about in the WHO pronouncing Europe as the focal
*Corresponding Author:
Oluwasegun M. Ibrahim,
E-mail: oluwasegun.michael@aims.ac.rw
point of the illness on March 13, 2020. Although
the mortality rate of the Novel Coronavirus is put at
3.4% by the WHO as of the 3rd
of March, 2020, the
virus is still dangerous to human race and spreading
as fast as possible.[2]
COVID-19 is said to have
affected all the continents of the world with Europe
being one of the hardest-hit continents. According to
Our World in Data report on April 4, 2020, Italy sits
comfortably at the top of the chart of the death rate
with more than 15,000 deaths recorded and many
others infected while the United States of America
(USA) is currently the highest hit with more than
50,000 deaths recorded as at April 26, 2020.[3]
Africa attains the 400,000 mark on July 1, 2020,
when John Hopkins tallies put the caseload at
405,171. This implies that over 100,000 cases
were recorded within the space of 1 week to reach
half a million milestone. Further report shows that
a total confirmed case of 508,114; active cases of
251,103; recoveries of 245,033 and 11,978 number
of deaths were recorded. The five most impacted

Ibrahim and Ekundayo: COVID-19 pandemic in Nigeria
IJMS/Oct-Dec-2020/Vol 4/Issue 4 2
countries are as follows: South Africa, Egypt,
Nigeria, Ghana, and Algeria.[5]
Nigeria is no doubt battling with the dreaded virus;
thus, it is imperative to look inward to avert another
round of total lockdown as many nations of the
world are currently experiencing another round of
lockdown. Figure 1 poses serious concern as Nigeria
is gradually entering the second phase of the disease
spread. In the course of this paper, we discuss briefly
a few misconceptions circulating around and as well
report the manifestation of the transmission of the
disease from humans to animals. We also highlight
the roles mathematical epidemiologists could play
in reducing the spread of the pandemic and make
recommendations for policy-makers.
MISCONCEPTION AND IMPACT ON
HUMAN IN NIGERIA
COVID-19: First wave
As the medical experts and scientists in the world
work tirelessly toward finding the most efficient
COVID-19 vaccines, it is worthy of note that
the pandemic virus is still surrounded by a lot of
misconceptions in Africa, in particular, Nigeria.
The WHO states that the disease has sparked an
“infodemic.” This implies a staggering amount of
information on social media, some simply false. In
particular, some people in Nigeria believe that the
COVID-19 is not real; others indeed believe that
it is real but cannot affect the poor or those who
do not travel beyond the country. Another school
of thought believed that some sorts of alcoholic
substances and concoction could cure the virus or
prevent them from getting infected.
During the first wave of COVID-19 pandemic in
Nigeria, a good number of people believe that it is
a “rich man’s virus” and so it can not affect the poor
masses.OthersbelievethatCOVID-19cannotsurvive
in a region around the equator as the temperature
would kill it. However, with more than 1273 people
infected and 40 deaths recorded already in Nigeria
as indicated on Nigeria Centre for Disease Control
website[6]
and 31,933 people infected and 1423 deaths
recorded across Africa as indicated on Africa Centres
for Disease Control website,[7]
it is crystal clear that
the virus is not selective as it keeps infecting the
rich and the poor alike and could potentially spread
on African soil if not combated since the figures are
becoming more frightening daily.
Another false claim in the first wave phase is
that the virus could be cured or prevented by
consuming alcoholic substance, garlic, lemon, and
good food to strengthen body immune system and
the likes. Again, this claim has been debunked by
the WHO and many medical experts around the
world. The only way out of it at the moment is
premised on personal hygiene – which includes
regular hand washing, social distancing, avoidance
of large gatherings, and regular decontamination of
the environment. A lot of media files (most often
video, audios) have been circulating on social
media with the claim that some drugs combination
Figure 1: Confirmed COVID-19 cases – Nigeria 2020. Source[4]

can potentially reduce symptoms, unfortunately,
there are no data or known research conducted
by the authors of this information to back up their
recommendations. An illiterate or literate that
cannot source for a fact will hook-line-and-sink
such an idea and drug abuse becomes the order
of the day. A strict measure was introduced by a
popular social media platform “WhatsApp” with
more than 2 billion people in over 180 countries
across the world to limit viral message forwards
to one chat at a time to stem the rapid spread of
COVID-19 misinformation.[8]
However, a user
could theoretically still forward the same message
to individuals or groups one by one as it is believed
this limitation will be effective in preventing a
spread of untrue information about the pandemic.
On the global scene, a study conducted in Italy
suggests that it is hard to find a product right now
that has a superior safety profile than chloroquine
as at in March 2020.[9]
Besides, its expense is
minimal and could be affordable by all. Thus,
its possible use both in prophylaxis in people
exposed to the novel coronavirus and as a curative
treatment will probably be promptly evaluated by
our Chinese colleagues. If clinical data confirm
the biological results, the COVID-19-associated
disease will have become one of the simplest and
cheapest to treat and prevent infectious respiratory
diseases.[9]
Unfortunately, some countries, among
others, experimented with the use of chloroquine
for some patients, however, the medication failed to
pass the clinical trials and its use for the treatment
of COVID-19 patients was heavily criticized by
some scientists across the world.
COVID-19: Second wave
On December 17, 2020, the Nigeria Presidential
Task Force on COVID-19 declared that there are
strong indications that Nigeria has entered the
second wave of COVID-19 infections.[10]
The
strong indication is as a result of an increase in the
number of infected cases in Nigeria cities. This is
evident in Figure 1. One may begin to wonder why
such a sudden rise in the infection cases in Nigeria,
in particular, Lagos and Federal Capital Territory,
Abuja cities despite the nation-wide lockdown. On
December 23, 2020, 1133 new confirmed cases and
5 deaths were recorded in Nigeria. Thus, 84,811
cases have been confirmed, 71,357 cases have been
discharged, and 1264 deaths have been recorded in
36 states and the Federal Capital Territory, Abuja.[4]
As the world continues to grapple with the dreaded
coronavirus, we take a look at some factors that
may have contributed to the sudden spike in the
confirmed cases of the virus among Nigerians after
the battle against it appeared to have been won.
One of the factors that may have led to the sudden
spike in the new cases of coronavirus in Nigeria
is the government’s inability to win the trust of
the citizenry. Since the first case of the virus was
confirmed in Nigeria, many people have expressed
doubt on the information coming from the
government agencies at various levels regarding
the existence of the deadly virus in Nigeria. Others
who appeared to believe that the virus is indeed in
Nigeria do so in part as they tag it the “rich man’s
virus.” Some even believe that the government
is out to make money through the unreal virus.
For the latter group of people, they tag the virus
“corona business.” This level of doubt expressed
by many citizens may have made the people throw
caution to the wind by living their normal life even
while the virus has not offered the opportunity for
such. One may believe such negligence is one of
the factors responsible for the sudden spike in the
new cases.
Another factor that we may do well not to divest
from the sudden spike in the cases of coronavirus
is the EndSars protest that engulfed the nation for
about a month in October 2020. According to the
reportofCNNonDecember9,2020,Nigeriancities
were engulfed by series of protests in October to
demand the disbandment of the special anti-robbery
squad – a unit in the Nigerian Police Force, alleged
to have been terrorizing the same citizenry they
were meant to protect.[11]
Youths across the nation
gathered together to protest against police brutality
and bad governance about a couple of months ago,
and many of them defiled the government laid down
rules of COVID-19. There was no observance of
physical distancing, a reasonable number of them
refused to use face masks, and those who used it at
best, hung the mask below their cheeks. It is logical

to, therefore, think that many of the youths might
have contracted the virus then and now we begin to
see the manifestation of the exercise.
Moreover, poverty might be one of the contributing
factors to the sudden spike of coronavirus in
Nigeria. According to the last survey of the
National Bureau of Statistics in 2019 as reported
by Punch Nigeria,[12]
the number of people living
below a dollar ($1) per is put at 82.9 million and
that is about 40.1% of the population of Nigeria.
For several months in Nigeria, people were
not allowed to go out during the first wave of
COVID-19, and comfortable people, most of the
middle class and political office holders, complied
with the laws. However, people who depended on
daily toils for survival flagrantly disobeyed what
they tagged “inhumane law” to look for what to
live on. This set of people neither believes that
there is coronavirus nor has the financial power
to purchase nose masks should they even chose to
believe it exists. Of course, it is easier to dismiss
what one is ignorant of or choose not to believe.
IMPACT ON ANIMAL
According to the World Organization for Animal
Health (formerly known as International des
Epizooties),[13]
there is no evidence that dogs
or cats are playing a vital role in the spread of
COVID-19. However, the infected humans or pet
owners should be aware that they can potentially
transmit this disease to their pets, hence, it is quite
instructive to keep animals separated from any
person who has COVID-19 symptoms. On April 5,
2020, the United States Department of Agriculture
(USDA) has confirmed severe acute respiratory
syndrome coronavirus 2 in one tiger at a zoo in
New York.[14]
As stated in the USDA report, this
is the first instance of a tiger being infected with
COVID-19 as several lions and tigers at the zoo
showed symptoms of respiratory illness. It is
believed that the tiger became sick after possible
exposure to a zoo employee who was actively
shedding the virus.[14]
It is important to note that there is no strong
evidence to suggest that many animals, including
pets or livestock, can spread COVID-19 infection to
people, however, individuals sick with COVID-19
or showing symptoms of COVID-19 should
restrict contact with pets and other animals, just
like you would with other humans. As indicated
in the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
report,[15]
there have not been reports of pets
becoming sick with COVID-19 in the United
States, it is still recommended that people sick
with COVID-19 limit contact with animals until
more information is known about the virus. When
possible, have another member of your household
care for your animals while you are sick. It was
further stressed that there is no evidence to suggest
that imported animals or animal products pose a
risk for spreading COVID-19 in the USA. This is
a rapidly evolving situation and information will be
updated as it becomes available.[15]
Africa, Nigeria in particular, can take a clue from
this recommendation. The news that a tiger tested
positive to COVID-19 in a zoo somewhere in
the USA portends great danger to the people and
economy of Nigeria. This is because a great number
of a section of Nigerians in the northern part of the
country are nomadic livestock farmers, who travel
around the nation always. If any of their animals
contract COVID-19, the negative impact of such
is only best imagined as it is capable of wreaking
further havoc on the already battered economy of
the nation and the well-being of the citizens.
ROLE OF MATHEMATICAL
EPIDEMIOLOGIST
The study in Martinez-Alvarez et al.[16]
considers a
comparison between the number of confirmed cases
in the worst affected European countries and the
West African countries with confirmed COVID-19
cases. Based on the research, it was evident that
the virus can as well spread in countries with
warmer climates. On account of West Africa, a fast
quickening in the number of cases could rapidly
overpower the vulnerable health system such as
public or private health institutions. Swift action
to control further spread of the infection and to
improve the response capacities of affected nations
in West Africa is, therefore, urgent.[16]
Mathematical modeling of infectious disease
serves as an indisputable scientific tool that could
be used to further understand the dynamics of the

COVID-19 pandemic in Nigeria. One way to do
this is by constructing deterministic models that
could help gain both qualitative and quantitative
insight into the dynamics of the novel virus.[17]
The susceptible, exposed, infected, and recovered
(SEIR) framework could be employed. According
to the WHO, it takes a maximum of 14 days before
the symptoms can manifest in infected individuals.
[18]
As a result, the exposed class gives detailed
information about individuals in the latent stage
(when the symptoms have not manifested in
the infected individuals but they are capable of
infecting susceptible individuals) within the 14
days incubation period.
From the infectious disease modeling perspective,
one should be concerned about basic reproduction
(R0
) of the disease in humans. The R0
is the number
of secondary infections generated from one infected
individual, this is understood to be between 2
and 2.5 for the COVID-19.[18]
Mathematically
formulating the R0
, the progression of the disease
could be monitored overtime. See the work
in Okuonghae and Omosigho[19]
for extensive
analysis of an SEIR model with effective use of the
R0
to combating a respiratory-like disease from a
population. The force of infection can be adopted
in the mathematical modeling of COVID-19.
This could take the form bilinear (mass action or
density dependent) incidence function; standard
(frequency dependent) incidence function; and
saturated incidence function. These functions can
be measured with the relevant data depending
on the situation of interest. Since it is not well
established that animals can transmit this disease,
it is, however, not certain whether a R0
can be
obtained for the animal population at the moment,
but it could be possible if there is an increase in
infection among animals of similar and non-similar
species.
Another interesting aspect of mathematical
epidemiology is the application of optimal control
in resource-poor/limited settings. Most African
countries (including Nigeria being the country
with the largest economy in Africa) cannot fight
this pandemic without intervention funds or health
support from the Western world. This intervention
may not be sufficient for the entire population,
hence, there is a need for proper maximization of
the available resources while minimizing cost.
More importantly, this approach is needful when
there is insufficient or no commitment from the
funding body. Furthermore, employing tools from
dynamical system theory could help us determine
parameters that are sensitive to the situation at hand.
We are hopeful that the ongoing research on the
disease vaccine becomes successful and affordable;
mathematical modeling could help policymakers
to determine the proportion of the population to be
vaccinated and also check for vaccine wane rate and
its effect.
SUGGESTIONS AND
RECOMMENDATION
A joint effort is needed to tackle the spread of
COVID-19 in Nigeria. Thus, we give the following
suggestions and recommendations.
• There should be synergy between the
government and the good people of Nigeria.
This can be achieved by rebuilding public
trust in government which will allow effective
implementation of health policies
• The government should as a matter of urgency
increase the scope of her COVID-19 relief
packages for her citizens, small- and large-
scale businesses owners to lift people out of
extreme poverty while improving the economy
• If the government can invest in research,
scientists at various levels, it could probably
bring researchers in various fields together
to team up and come up with a long-lasting
solution that fits into Nigeria situation
• TacklingthecurrentpandemicinNigeria,should
not be seen as the work of those in public health
or biomedical sciences, instead, experts in other
areas such as applied mathematics, statistics,
and a lot more can be encouraged to join the
response team to tackle the deadly disease
• In a moment like this, individuals diagnosed with
COVID-19 disease should avoid unnecessary
contact with animals, in particular, pets. Thus,
regular washing of hands before and after
interacting with animals is essential
• Ultimately, while Nigerians await the
distribution of the latest vaccines for

COVID-19, ensuring the use of face masks,
observing social distancing, aggressive testing,
avoidance of unnecessary outing, and staying
safe remain our best arsenal.
CONCLUSION
A few misconceptions people hold on coronavirus,
some factors that may have triggered the sudden
recent spike in the number of the reported cases of
COVID-19 in Nigeria, the impacts of COVID-19 on
animals, and the roles of epidemiologists in finding
a lasting coronavirus solution were discussed, and
the suggestions and recommendation to adopt were
also briefly discussed in this paper. As the world,
especially Nigeria, struggles to contain the spread
of COVID-19, the need for personal hygiene, social
distancing,regularhandwashing,avoidanceoflarge
gatherings, and other preventive/precautionary
measures cannot be overemphasized. By not
letting down our guard now, we can save ourselves
and others from contracting the virus and as well
contain its spread among human beings. More than
never before, the government at various levels and
media houses must intensify public enlightenment
to clarify the misconceptions that many still have
about the novel coronavirus. Another lockdown
may keep Nigeria in recession for a long time.
ACKNOWLEDGMENT
The authors wish to express their gratitude to
Bowale Caleb Adepoju for the support he rendered
while the research lasted. Our gratitude also goes
to the anonymous reviewers for their constructive
comments. Finally, we thank all the frontline
health workers and researchers who are working
assiduously to contain the spread of COVID-19
infections in the world.
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