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Download full ebook of Shifting Wealth Oecd instant download pdf
Perspectives on
Global Development 2010
Shifting Wealth
Download full ebook of Shifting Wealth Oecd instant download pdf
Perspectives
on Global Development
2010
SHIFTING WEALTH
ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION
AND DEVELOPMENT
The OECD is a unique forum where governments work together to address the economic, social
and environmental challenges of globalisation. The OECD is also at the forefront of efforts to
understand and to help governments respond to new developments and concerns, such as corporate
governance, the information economy and the challenges of an ageing population. The Organisation
provides a setting where governments can compare policy experiences, seek answers to common
problems, identify good practice and work to co-ordinate domestic and international policies.
The OECD member countries are: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Chile, the Czech Republic,
Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Korea,
Luxembourg, Mexico, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal, the Slovak Republic,
Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, the United Kingdom and the United States. The Commission of
the European Communities takes part in the work of the OECD.
OECD Publishing disseminates widely the results of the Organisation’s statistics gathering and
research on economic, social and environmental issues, as well as the conventions, guidelines and
standards agreed by its members.
The Development Centre of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development was established by
decision of the OECD Council on 23 October 1962 and comprises 24 member countries of the OECD: Austria,
Belgium, Chile, the Czech Republic, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Korea, Luxembourg,
Mexico, the Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Slovak Republic, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey and the
United Kingdom. In addition, the following non-OECD countries are members of the Development Centre: Brazil
(since March 1994); India (February 2001); Romania (October 2004); Thailand (March 2005); South Africa
(May 2006); Egypt, Israel and Viet Nam (March 2008); Colombia (July 2008); Indonesia (February 2009);
Costa Rica, Mauritius, Morocco and Peru (March 2009) and the Dominican Republic (November 2009). The
Commission of the European Communities also takes part in the Centre's Governing Board.
The Development Centre, whose membership is open to both OECD and non-OECD countries, occupies a
unique place within the OECD and in the international community. Members finance the Centre and serve on
its Governing Board, which sets the biennial work programme and oversees its implementation.
The Centre links OECD members with developing and emerging economies and fosters debate and
discussion to seek creative policy solutions to emerging global issues and development challenges.
Participants in Centre events are invited in their personal capacity.
ISBN 978-92-64-08465-0 (print)
ISBN 978-92-64-08472-8 (PDF)
Also available in French: Perspectives du développement mondial 2010 : Le basculement de la richesse
Photo credits: Cover © Magali Geney.
Corrigenda to OECD publications may be found on line at: www.oecd.org/publishing/corrigenda.
© OECD 2010
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at info@copyright.com or the Centre français d’exploitation du droit de copie (CFC) at contact@cfcopies.com.
The opinions expressed and arguments employed in this publication are the sole
responsibility of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of the OECD, its Development
Centre or of the governments of their member countries.
FOREWORD
PERSPECTIVES ON GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT 2010 © OECD 2010 3
Foreword
Over the past decade, a group of emerging and developing economies has been leading the way in
terms of growth and development, shifting the world’s economic centre of gravity. Global growth in
gross domestic product (GDP) in the last ten years owes more to the developing world than to the
advanced economies. If current trends continue, developing countries will account for 57% of world
GDP by 2030. Dynamic economies, especially the Asian giants, China and India, are powerful
engines for economic growth, and their role has been confirmed by their contribution to the global
recovery from the financial and economic crisis.
Policy makers in both developing and developed countries need to capitalise on these trends. The
rising prosperity in many parts of the developing world represents an enormous opportunity. Nearly
half a billion people have moved out of extreme poverty in the last two decades, a rate of progress
unprecedented in recent times.
Development is an integral part of the OECD’s overall mission to build a stronger, cleaner and
fairer world economy. This first Perspectives on Global Development documents the fundamental
and systemic changes in the global economy over the last 20 years. It focuses on the reasons for the
improved economic performance of major developing countries and its consequences.
The report draws especial attention to South-South linkages, which promise to be one of the
main engines of growth over the coming decade. Economic ties between developing countries have
strengthened as new poles of growth have emerged. Between 1990 and 2008, South-South trade
multiplied more than 20 times over, while world trade expanded only four-fold. Policy needs to
harness the full potential of these South-South flows. By reducing trade tariffs to the levels prevailing
among advanced countries, our calculations suggest that developing countries could achieve
substantial welfare benefits – worth more than double the gains from similar reductions on
North-South trade. The opportunities to benefit from South-South links are not limited to trade but
also include aid, foreign direct investment and migration.
There is increasing recognition, however, that economic growth is not enough. The issue of
inequality still needs to be tackled. The report documents that inequality within many rapidly
growing developing economies has been increasing. For social development to match pace with
growth, deliberate and determined interventions are necessary to make growth pro-poor and to
establish social policies that protect and promote well-being. Thanks to the new-found wealth in
emerging economies, governments can now afford to boost public spending on social protection.
Policy innovations in the South provide at least part of the answer. Cash transfer schemes have
been adopted by a number of emerging economies – Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Mexico and
South Africa – since the late 1990s, and they now benefit 90 million households. These schemes are
not insurance-based or contributory-based, but rather are financed through government taxes.
Policy making at the international level also needs to adjust to a world in which developing
countries have a growing economic weight. The decisions we make, the actions we take and how we
work together must recognise and reflect the new economic reality. The most significant and positive
FOREWORD
PERSPECTIVES ON GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT 2010 © OECD 2010
4
development so far has been the Group of 20 establishing itself as the premier forum for international
economic co-operation. International institutions also need to adapt. The OECD is opening up and
becoming more global and inclusive. We have welcomed new members, and our Enhanced Engagement
Initiative is strengthening our dialogue and co-operation with five major emerging market economies,
the countries at the heart of the Shifting Wealth story: Brazil, China, India, Indonesia and South Africa.
This report shows that “the rise of the rest” is not a “threat to the west”. Overall, it is good news
for development and good news for the global economy. The OECD will continue to support evidence-
based policy making to promote progress and reduce poverty and inequality to achieve a stronger, cleaner
and fairer world economy.
Angel Gurría
Secretary-General
Organisation for Economic
Co-operation and Development
TABLE OF CONTENTS
PERSPECTIVES ON GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT 2010 © OECD 2010 5
Table of contents
Table of Contents
Acknowledgements . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
Acronyms and Abbreviations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11
Preface . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
Executive Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
Introduction – Why “Shifting Wealth” and Why Now? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23
Chapter 1. Shifting Wealth and the New Geography of Growth . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27
Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28
The new geography of growth . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31
Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40
Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40
References. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41
Chapter 2. The Asian Giants and their Macroeconomic Impact . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43
Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44
A new engine of growth . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44
A labour supply shock – with an effect on global wages . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47
New and growing demand – reflected in commodity prices. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49
The effect of the giants on terms of trade . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52
The Asian impact on global interest rates . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54
Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63
Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 64
References. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65
Chapter 3. The Increasing Importance of the South to the South. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69
Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 70
South-South trade . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71
Foreign direct investment. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 81
Aid . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 87
Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 90
Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 90
References. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 92
Chapter 4. Shifting Wealth and Poverty Reduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 97
Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 98
An important reduction in absolute income poverty. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 98
Inequality, growth and poverty reduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 102
TABLE OF CONTENTS
PERSPECTIVES ON GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT 2010 © OECD 2010
6
New challenges to making growth benefit the poor. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 106
Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 109
Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 110
References. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 111
Chapter 5. The Growing Technological Divide in a Four-speed World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 115
Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 116
The technological divide within the developing world . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 116
New workshops of the world? The role of manufacturing . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 122
Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 129
Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 130
References. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 131
Chapter 6. Harnessing the Winds of Change . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 135
Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 136
Development strategies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 136
Capitalising on foreign direct investment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 139
Dealing with the resource boom . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 142
Revitalising agriculture and rural development . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 144
Policies for pro-poor growth. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 146
Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 148
Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 149
References. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 149
Chapter 7. Collective Responses to Shifting Wealth . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 153
Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 154
A new architecture for global governance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 154
Changing interests and coalitions in international co-operation. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 159
Technology transfer. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 165
Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 166
Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 166
References. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 167
Statistical Annex: The Four-speed World Classification. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 169
Tables
1.1. Real GDP growth in OECD member and non-member economies, 2008-2011 . . . 29
1.2. Classification of the four-speed world . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33
1.3. Shifting wealth in the four-speed world . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37
2.1. China’s share of the world’s… . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47
2.2. Commodity price volatility . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51
2.3. Major non-OECD holders of US treasury securities. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 62
3.1. Major African trade partners in 2008. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 74
3.2. Average applied tariff by region and by sector . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 78
3.3. Selected scenarios for trade liberalisation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 79
3.4. The gains for the South from deeper South-South liberalisation, standard
model closure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 79
TABLE OF CONTENTS
PERSPECTIVES ON GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT 2010 © OECD 2010 7
3.5. The gains for the South from deeper South-South liberalisation, non-standard
model closure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 80
3.6. Official development assistance reported to the DAC . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 87
3.7. Allocation of bilateral southern development co-operation, 2006 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 88
4.1. Poverty reduction and growth for selected countries (1995-2005) . . . . . . . . . . . . . 100
4.2. Under-5 infant mortality rates by region (per 1 000 live births) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 102
4.3. Human development in a four-speed world . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 102
4.4. Changes in the Gini coefficient in the 1990s and 2000s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 105
5.1. Growth accounting, 2000-07 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 117
5.2. Manufacturing value added per capita 1990-2007 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 125
5.3. Index of technological sophistication for selected economies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 126
7.1. Anti-dumping initiations, 1995-2007 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 164
A.1. Affluent . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 170
A.2. Converging. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 171
A.3. Struggling. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 173
A.4. Poor. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 174
Figures
0.1. Share of the global economy in purchasing power parity terms . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
0.2. The four-speed world in the 1990s. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16
0.3. The four-speed world in the 2000s. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16
0.4. Global imbalances in the current account . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17
0.5. Potential gains from South-South trade liberalisation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18
0.6. Share of the global economy in purchasing power parity terms, 1990-2030. . . . . 24
1.1. Change in real GDP in 2009 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28
1.2. Bouncing back – GDP, change on previous year. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30
1.3. Accelerating growth in the developing world, 1960-2010. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30
1.4. Contribution to world GDP/PPP growth. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31
1.5. The four-speed world in the 1990s. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34
1.6. The four-speed world in the 2000s. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34
1.7. From a diverging world… to a converging one?. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38
1.8. Average KOF index scores according to the four-speed world classification . . . . 39
2.1. Contribution to world GDP/PPP growth. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45
2.2. Real commodity prices . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49
2.3. Net barter terms of trade, 2000-08 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52
2.4. Global imbalances in the current account . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55
2.5. International reserves . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 57
2.6. Sectoral savings balances in China and OECD countries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59
2.7. Son preference and savings rates . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61
2.8. Public debt as a share of GDP . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 62
3.1. Exports by region . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71
3.2. Inter-regional South-South trade flows in 2008. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 72
3.3. Chinese exports of capital goods to low- and middle-income
countries 1990-2007 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 77
3.4. Shifts in relative prices for US imported goods, 2000-09 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 78
3.5. Global FDI inflows, 1970-2008 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 81
3.6. Net FDI outflows, major emerging markets, 2000-08 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 82
TABLE OF CONTENTS
PERSPECTIVES ON GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT 2010 © OECD 2010
8
3.7. Aid from non-DAC donors. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 88
4.1. Headcount poverty rates . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 99
4.2. Poverty and growth – a strong relationship, but much unexplained variation . . . . . 99
4.3. Inequality in selected countries, 1985-2007 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 104
4.4. Relative poverty rates for selected OECD and non-OECD countries . . . . . . . . . . . . 109
5.1. Tertiary enrolment by region . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 118
5.2. Research and development expenditure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 120
5.3. Patent intensity. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 122
5.4. Manufacturing value added per capita, 1990-2008 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 123
6.1. Distribution of bilateral investment treaties (BITs), year ending 2008 . . . . . . . . . . 139
6.2. Arable land per person . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 145
7.1. Declining share of the G7 in global output, 1960-2008 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 155
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
PERSPECTIVES ON GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT 2010 © OECD 2010 9
Acknowledgements
Perspectives on Global Development 2010 is the product of a collaborative effort by a number
of professionals inside the OECD Development Centre. Javier Santiso had the initial
inspiration, while Helmut Reisen was responsible for developing the core concept. The
report has been prepared under the direction of Andrew Mold and Johannes Jütting by a
team comprising Helmut Reisen, Juan Ramón de Laiglesia, Annalisa Prizzon and
Christopher Garroway de Coninck.
Major inputs were received from Martha Baxter, Jason Gagnon, Burcu Hacibedel,
Sebastian Paulo, Laura Recuero Virto, Javier Santiso, Edouard Turkisch, John Whalley and
Jaejoon Woo. Important inputs to the whole process were also provided by Karen Barnes,
Nejma Bouchama, Amalia Johnsson, David Khoudour, Estelle Loiseau, Pamela Marqueyrol,
Elodie Masson, Paula Nagler, Dilan Ölcer and Abla Safir.
Perspectives on Global Development 2010 has involved extensive consultations with Non-
Residential Fellows who contributed to the report with background papers and their
advice: Amar Bhattacharya, The Group of Twenty-Four on International Monetary Affairs
and Development (G24); Eliana Cardoso, Fundação Getúlio Vargas in São Paulo; Martyn
Davies, The China Africa Network, Gordon Institute of Business Science, University of
Pretoria; Augustin Fosu, United Nations University-World Institute for Development
Economics Research; Yasheng Huang, MIT Sloan School of Management; Homi Kharas,
Wolfensohn Center for Development, Brookings Institution; Rajneesh Narula, University of
Reading Business School; Liliana Rojas Suarez, Center for Global Development.
The authors of this report would like to acknowledge the following individuals for their
comments and support: Angel Alonso Arroba, David Batt, Daniel Cohen, Jonathan Coppel,
Christian Daude, Sean Dougherty, Colm Foy, Kiichiro Fukasaku, Jill Gaston, Andrea Goldstein,
Guillaume Grosso, Joaquim Oliveira Martins, Charles Oman, Pier Carlo Padoan,
Gabriela Ramos, Andrew Rogerson and Jean-Philippe Stijns. Special thanks go to Laura Alfaro
(Harvard University), Raphael Kaplinsky (Open University) and John Whalley (University of
Western Ontario), who provided extensive comments on the draft and the key messages of
the report.
Many thanks also to Adrià Alsina, Ly-Na Dollon, Magali Geney, Vanda Legrandgérard,
Sala Patterson and Olivier Puech from the OECD Development Centre for preparing the report
for publication, in both paper and electronic form. Special thanks go to Michèle Girard, who
provided substantial bibliographical help and was responsible for organising the French
translation of this report. David Camier-Wright was the principal editor of the report.
Financial support from the French Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Fundación Carolina and
the Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation is gratefully acknowledged.
Download full ebook of Shifting Wealth Oecd instant download pdf
ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS
PERSPECTIVES ON GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT 2010 © OECD 2010 11
Acronyms and Abbreviations
AD Anti-Dumping
AFTA ASEAN Free Trade Area
ASEAN Association of Southeast Asian Nations
BIT Bilateral Investment Treaty
CACM Central America Common Market
CCT Conditional Cash Transfer
CIS Commonwealth of Independent States
COMESA Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa
DAC Development Assistance Committee
EBA Everything But Arms Agreement
EPZ Export Processing Zone
ETDZ Economic and Technology Development Zone
EU European Union
FAO Food and Agriculture Organization
FDI Foreign Direct Investment
GATT General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade
GDP Gross Domestic Product
GNI Gross National Income
GTAP Global Trade Analysis Project
IBRD International Bank for Reconstruction and Development
IEA International Energy Agency
IFI International Financial Institution
IMF International Monetary Fund
ITS Index of Technological Sophistication
LDC Least-Developed Country
MERCOSUR Mercado Común del Sur
MVA Manufacturing Value Added
NAMA Non-Agricultural Market Access
NTB Non-Tariff Barrier to Trade
ODA Official Development Assistance
PPP Purchasing-Power Parity
R&D Research and Development
SADC Southern African Development Community
SDR Special Drawing Right
SEZ Special Economic Zone
SOE State-Owned Enterprise
SSM Special Safeguard Mechanism
SWF Sovereign Wealth Fund
ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS
PERSPECTIVES ON GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT 2010 © OECD 2010
12
TFP Total Factor Productivity
TRIPS Trade Related Intellectual Property Rights
UNCTAD United Nations Conference on Trade and Development
WEO World Economic Outlook
WTO World Trade Organization
PREFACE
PERSPECTIVES ON GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT 2010 © OECD 2010 13
Preface
Major events are often misunderstood when they occur, and their relevance
underestimated. Perspectives on Global Development: Shifting Wealth aims to avoid a costly
lag in recognising the new geography of growth – a structural realignment in the global
economy at the opening of the 21st century. The seeds of this change were planted over
the last 20 years. Billions of people have entered the global market economy – as
workers, consumers and investors – and economic catch-up has lifted hundreds of
millions out of poverty. The financial crisis, far from reversing this process, has
accelerated it; many emerging economies came out of recession faster than
OECD countries.
Although the rise of emerging markets, and particularly the remarkable growth of
China and India, has already captured media attention, Shifting Wealth comprehensively
documents the changing geography of economic growth across the developing world as a
whole. It examines its global macroeconomic implications, as well as highlighting the
increasing importance of South-South interaction in areas such as foreign direct
investment, trade and aid flows. The report flags not only the emergence of a growing
technological divide within the developing world, but also concerns about rising inequality
within countries.
Shifting Wealth looks at these trends from the point of view of developing countries, an
angle that is often overlooked in mainstream debates. The changing economic centre of
gravity has altered the context in which development policy is made, offering new lessons
and tools for implementation. Developing countries are now reviewing their development
strategies to capitalise on the increasing potential of South-South linkages and
co-operation. The report also argues that the global governance architecture should better
reflect the new economic reality, giving greater representation and responsibility to
emerging and developing economies.
Shifting Wealth is not a stand-alone report. It builds on a body of work by the
Development Centre on the impact of emerging economies’ growth on Africa, Asia and
Latin America. The Rise of China and India: What’s in it for Africa? (2006) illustrated how the
growing economic power of the Asian Giants was affecting the growth patterns of African
countries, while The Visible Hand of China in Latin America (2007) explored the opportunities
and challenges that Latin American economies face as Chinese influence in the region
continues to grow. Through these books and other Development Centre working papers
and policy insights, it has become clear that these changes are all part of a broader
transformation.
Shifting Wealth also takes inspiration from the work of long-time contributor and friend
of the Development Centre, the distinguished British economist Angus Maddison, who
sadly died in April this year. The concept of Shifting Wealth stands on the bedrock of
Maddison’s data and conclusions, including his landmark studies for the Development
PREFACE
PERSPECTIVES ON GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT 2010 © OECD 2010
14
Centre, The World Economy: A Millennial Perspective and Historical Statistics (2006, 2010) and
Chinese Economic Performance in the Long Run, 960-2030 A.D. (2007). This report is dedicated to
his memory.
Mario Pezzini
Director ad interim
OECD Development Centre
Perspectives on Global Development 2010
Shifting Wealth
© OECD 2010
15
Executive Summary
In 2009 China became the leading trade partner of Brazil, India and South Africa. The
Indian multinational Tata is now the second most active investor in sub-Saharan Africa.
Over 40% of the world’s researchers are now in Asia. As of 2008, developing countries were
holding USD 4.2 trillion in foreign currency reserves, more than one and a half times the
amount held by rich countries. These are just a few examples of a 20-year structural
transformation of the global economy in which the world’s economic centre of gravity has
moved towards the East and South, from OECD members to emerging economies, a
phenomenon this report calls “shifting wealth”.
Perspectives on Global Development shows how developing countries have become important
economic actors and demonstrates the dynamism of the new South-South economic ties.
Although the process has been ongoing for 20 years, the opportunities and risks for poor
countries posed by shifting wealth are only starting to be understood.
OECD non-member economies have markedly increased their share of global output since
the 2000s, and projections predict that this trend will continue (Figure 0.1). This re-
alignment of the world economy is not a transitory phenomenon, but represents a
structural change of historical significance.
What does the strong growth of large emerging countries mean for our thinking on
development? How can countries capitalise on the intensification of links between the
developing world? Can lessons from the emerging countries be replicated for those
countries which are still poor? What does the new economic geography mean for global
Figure 0.1. Share of the global economy in purchasing power parity terms
% of global GDP, PPP basis
Note: These data apply Maddison’s long-term growth projections to his historical PPP-based estimates for 29 OECD member countries
and 129 non-member economies.
Source: Authors’ calculations based on Maddison (2007) and Maddison (2010).
1 2 http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/888932287957
2000 2010 2030
OECD
member
countries
43%
OECD
member
countries
51%
OECD
member
countries
60%
Non-
member
economies
40%
Non-
member
economies
49%
Non-
member
economies
57%
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
PERSPECTIVES ON GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT 2010 © OECD 2010
16
governance? This report addresses these questions by looking at the process of
convergence and its macroeconomic impact; how this is fuelling increased South-South
interactions; and the distributional challenges that growth can bring.
Shifting up a gear in a four-speed world
It is no longer enough to divide the world simply between North and South, developed and
developing countries. In order to understand the complexity of the shift, this report takes
and develops James Wolfensohn’s concept of a “four-speed” world. This splits the world
into Affluent, Converging, Struggling and Poor countries according to their income and rate
of growth per capita relative to the industrialised world. This framework reveals a new
geography of global growth, exposing the heterogeneity of the South: some developing
countries are beginning to catch up to the living standards of the affluent, others are
struggling to break through a middle-income “glass ceiling”, and some continue to suffer
under the weight of extreme poverty.
Seen like this, two distinct time periods emerge in terms of growth performance. For most
developing economies, the 1990s were another “lost decade”, hampered by financial crises
and instability (Figure 0.2). Two regions in particular failed to rebuild their economic
fortunes: Latin American growth responded only weakly to reforms, and sub-Saharan
Africa continued to stagnate.
In the 2000s, things moved up a gear and much of the developing world enjoyed its first
decade of strong growth in many years (Figure 0.3). The new millennium saw the
resumption – for the first time since the 1970s – of a trend towards strong convergence in
per capita incomes with the high-income countries. The number of converging countries
(that is, countries doubling the average per capita growth of the high-income
OECD countries) more than quintupled during this period (from 12 to 65), and the number
of poor countries more than halved (from 55 to 25). China and India grew at three to four
times the OECD average during the 2000s. Nevertheless, there was a great diversity in
outcomes and a group of struggling and poor countries continued to underperform.
Figure 0.2. The four-speed world in the 1990s Figure 0.3. The four-speed world in the 2000s
Note: See Chapter 1 for a detailed description of the country classification used.
Source: Authors’ calculations based on World Bank (2009).
1 2 http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/888932287976 1 2 http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/888932287995
Poor Struggling Converging Affluent Poor Struggling Converging Affluent
Exploring the Variety of Random
Documents with Different Content
To make the wheel. Take a piece of board, A, and strike a circle upon
it the size you wish your wheel to be of, B, and with the compass saw
cut close round to the stroke; cut out a square hole, C, in the centre
for the nave to join. Then get the blacksmith to put an iron rim round
the wheel to keep it from splitting, and a round pin in each side of
the nave, and put a staple in each side of the barrow to keep the
wheel in its place. Paint the whole of any colour you choose, and you
will have
PUNCH’S COACH.
THE WAY TO MAKE A BOX.
First ascertain the size you wish your box to be of. Then cut off your
stuff, but take care to cut it a quarter of an inch longer than the size
of your box from outside to outside. Should you want it deeper or
broader than the length of a deal, the widest of which is generally
only eleven inches; suppose, for instance, you wish your box to be
18 inches deep, and you have only 9-inch deal to make it with, you
will of course have to join two together, or make what is called in
carpentering a glue joint. First, then, after you have cut off your
stuff, take your jack plane and “scuffle the rough off;” then put your
board edgeways into the bench-screw, and take your trying plane or
long plane to get the edge of the deals that are to be glued together
perfectly straight and even; and lastly, use the joiner plane, which
will take off a nice uniform shaving of the whole length of the board.
Proceed exactly in the same manner with the other board to be
joined to the first. Then, after having made each thoroughly smooth,
clap the two together and see if they will lie close in every part, if
not, you must plane them till they do, taking care to plane the edges
perfectly square, or at right angles to the surface of the board, for if
you are not careful in this particular, when your boards are glued
together they will be of this form. When you have joined
them properly for glueing, let your glue be nicely hot and not too
thick, and hold both edges of the boards together so that you can
with a brush put the glue on both at one time, put the two together
very quickly, let one of them be in the bench-screw, and while there
rub the other backwards and forwards till the glue sets, which it will
soon do if well joined. Let the whole dry, and then the glued part will
be as strong as any other part of the board.
After your sides, ends, bottom, and top are thus prepared, you must
then plane them up nicely, so that they are perfectly smooth and
straight. Use first the jack plane, then the trying plane. When this is
done you have to proceed to a nice little job, namely, to dovetail the
corners together, so as to form your box. In this process much
depends upon the planing and squaring of the stuff, for if you have
not done this nicely the dovetailing will be very imperfectly
performed. Assuming that everything has been well done, then take
the two ends of the box, and see that each is perfectly square and
true to the other. Then allow one-eighth of an inch more than the
thickness of your sides, and set out the ends, squaring it over on
both sides, which when the dovetails are cut out will form the inside
of the box.
TO CUT THE DOVETAILS.
Take one “end-piece” of the box and place it endways into the
bench-screw, and mark out the dovetails on the edge of the board
inside, thus:
then with your dovetail saw cut in into the marks down to the lines
squared over on the flat side like this—
Then with a chisel cut out that part of the wood that is crossed, and
leave the other part, this being the part which will form the pins or
tails. Then take one side of your box and lay it flat on the bench, the
inside uppermost; then place the end you have cut on it, keeping the
edges flush, and mark round the shape of the pins, which will leave
them after this form—
the black places being the mortices which are to be cut out. In
cutting out these you must be careful to cut within side of the stroke,
so that the mortices will be a little smaller than the pins, which will
admit of their being driven in quite tight, and will allow the glue to
adhere to them (for you have to glue these when you fix them).
When you have thus put the ends and sides together let them stand
till the glue gets dry, then take your planes and plane the quarter of
an inch off the pins which you allowed to be a little longer than the
length of the box, and you have then made the body of your box.
THE BOTTOM OF THE BOX.
Cut your bottom the exact size of the box, nail the bottom on, and
“get out” a piece of wood (by cutting and planing in the usual
manner) to nail round so as to form a skirting to it, and at the same
time hide the joints of the bottom; “get out” a similar piece of wood
to nail round the top which will form the lid. Then get a pair of box
joints and a lock, and having put them on by a stroke of your own
ingenuity you will have a “box.”
THE GAME OF CHESS.
It is the principal aim of this little treatise to assist the young player
in his examination of the theory of the openings in the game of chess
—a branch of study that to the beginner generally appears to be of a
most dull and uninviting character, but which, nevertheless, is of the
highest importance to all those who are ambitious of attaining to any
degree of proficiency in the game.
Before proceeding further, we would presume that the young player
possesses at least an elementary knowledge of the game, such as
the moves and value of the various pieces, the laws of checking, &c.
Should he not be thus fortunate, we would strongly advise him to
have recourse to the assistance of some chess-friend for an
explanation of the elementary principles; for, thanks to the almost
daily increasing knowledge of the game, there are few localities so
remote that cannot produce a brother of the free-masonry of chess.
Though, in compliance with the time-honoured custom of all writers
on chess, we subjoin a brief description of the various pieces and
their moves, yet it is our firm conviction that no beginner has ever
succeeded in mastering by the assistance of “the books” alone, the
mere elementary principles of the game.
In the following pages we have endeavoured to give a brief synopsis
of the most important of the openings, collected from the most
approved authorities, and at the same time to present to the tyro as
it were a passing glimpse of the chief modern discoveries.
If we have occasionally strayed from the beaten path, or insensibly
diverged into any of the as yet unexplored regions of chess, we
would fain crave the reader’s kind indulgence for any of those errors
which almost invariably find their way into variations that have not
undergone the “limæ labor,” or the test of actual play. Finally, should
we have had the good fortune by the following pages to assist a
single beginner in mastering any of the elementary difficulties which
beset the rough road that only leads to proficiency in chess—should
there, through our means, have been added but a single recruit to
the ranks of Caissa, well will our labour have been repaid!
THE LAWS OF THE GAME.
I.—The chess-board must be so placed that each player has a white
corner square nearest his right-hand. If the board have been
improperly placed, it must be adjusted, provided four moves on each
side have not been played, but not afterwards.
II.—If a Piece or Pawn be misplaced at the beginning of the game,
either player may insist upon the mistake being rectified, if he
discover it before playing his fourth move, but not afterwards.
III.—Should a player, at the commencement of the game, omit to
place all his men on the board, he may correct the omission before
playing his fourth move, but not afterwards.
IV.—If a player, undertaking to give the odds of a Piece or Pawn,
neglect to remove it from the board, his adversary, after four moves
have been played on each side, has the choice of proceeding with or
recommencing the game.
V.—When no odds are given, the players must take the first move of
each game alternately, drawing lots to determine who shall begin the
first game. If a game be drawn, the player who began it has the first
move of the following one.
VI.—The player who gives the odds has the right of moving first in
each game, unless otherwise agreed. Whenever a Pawn is given, it is
understood to be always the King’s Bishop’s Pawn.
VII.—A Piece or Pawn touched must be played, unless at the moment
of touching it the player say “J’adoube” or words to that effect; but if
a Piece or Pawn be displaced or overturned by accident, it may be
restored to its place.
VIII.—While a player holds the Piece or Pawn he has touched, he
may play it to any other than the square he took it from; but, having
quitted it, he cannot recall the move.
IX.—Should a player take one of his adversary’s Pieces or Pawns,
without saying “J’adoube” or words to that effect, his adversary may
compel him to take it; but if it cannot be legally taken, he may oblige
him to move the King; should his King, however, be so posted that
he cannot be legally moved, no penalty can be inflicted.
X.—Should a player move one of his adversary’s men, his antagonist
has the option of compelling him—1st, to replace the Piece or Pawn
and move his King; 2d, to replace the Piece or Pawn and take it; 3d,
to let the Piece or Pawn remain on the square to which it had been
played, as if the move were correct.
XI.—If a player take one of his adversary’s men with one of his own
that cannot take it without making a false move, his antagonist has
the option of compelling him to take it with a Piece or Pawn that can
legally take it, or to move his own Piece or Pawn which he touched.
XII.—Should a player take one of his own men with another, his
adversary has the option of obliging him to move either.
XIII.—If a player make a false move, i. e. play a Piece or Pawn to any
square to which it cannot legally be moved, his adversary has the
choice of three penalties; viz., 1st, of compelling him to let the Piece
or Pawn remain on the square to which he played it; 2d, to move
correctly to another square; 3d, to replace the Piece or Pawn and
move his King.
XIV.—Should a player move out of his turn, his adversary may choose
whether both moves shall remain, or the second be retracted.
XV.—When a Pawn is first moved in a game, it may be played one or
two squares; but in the latter case the opponent has the privilege of
taking it en passant with any Pawn which could have taken it had it
been played one square only. A Pawn cannot be taken en passant by
a Piece.
XVI.—A player cannot castle in the following cases:—
1. If the King or Rook have been moved.
2. If the King be in check.
3. If there be any Piece between the King and Rook.
4. If the King pass over any square attacked by one of the
adversary’s Pieces or Pawns.
Should a player castle in any of the above cases, his adversary has
the choice of three penalties; viz., 1st, of insisting that the move
remain; 2d, of compelling him to move the King; 3d, of compelling
him to move the Rook.
XVII.—If a player touch a Piece or Pawn that cannot be moved
without leaving the King in check, he must replace the Piece or Pawn
and move his King; but if the King cannot be moved, no penalty can
be inflicted.
XVIII.—If a player attack the adverse King without saying “Check,”
his adversary is not obliged to attend to it; but if the former, in
playing his next move, were to say “Check,” each player must retract
his last move, and he that is under check must obviate it.
XIX.—If the King has been in check for several moves, and it cannot
be ascertained how it occurred, the player whose King is in check
must retract his last move and free his King from the check; but if
the moves made subsequent to the check be known, they must be
retracted.
XX.—Should a player say “Check,” without giving it, and his
adversary, in consequence, move his King, or touch a Piece or Pawn
to interpose, he may retract such move, provided his adversary have
not completed his last move.
XXI.—Every Pawn which has reached the eighth or last square of the
chess-board, must be immediately exchanged for a Queen or any
other Piece the player may think fit, even though all the Pieces
remain on the board. It follows, therefore, that he may have two or
more Queens, three or more Rooks, Bishops, or Knights.
XXII.—If a play remain, at the end of the game, with a Rook and
Bishop against a Rook; with both Bishops only; with Knight and
Bishop only, &c., he must checkmate his adversary in fifty moves on
each side at most, or the game will be considered as drawn; the fifty
moves commence from the time the adversary gives notice that he
will count them. The law holds good for all other checkmates of
Pieces only, such as Queen, or Rook only, Queen against a Rook, &c.
&c.
XXIII.—If a player agree to checkmate with a particular Piece or
Pawn, or on a particular square, or engage to force his adversary to
stalemate or checkmate him, he is not restricted to any number of
moves.
XXIV.—A stalemate is a drawn game.
XXV.—If a player make a false move, castle improperly, &c. &c., the
adversary must take notice of such irregularity before he touches a
Piece or Pawn, or he will not be allowed to inflict any penalty.
XXVI.—Should any question arise, respecting which there is no law,
or in case of a dispute respecting any law, the players must refer the
point to the most skilful disinterested bystanders, and their decision
must be considered as conclusive.
THE KING’S KNIGHT’S OPENING.
WHITE. BLACK.
1. P. to K’s 4th. 1. P. to K’s 4th.
2. K’s Kt. to B’s 3d.
Black has now only three satisfactory methods of defence; viz., 2. P.
to Q’s 3d; 2. K’s Kt. to B’s 3d; 2. Q’s Kt. to B’s 3d. He may, however,
adopt five other modes of play; viz., P. to K. B’s 3d; Q. to K. B’s 3d;
B. to Q’s 3d; P. to Q’s 4th; and P. to K. B’s 4th. Of these the first
three are utterly untenable, and the last two are highly dangerous.
Should he play 2. P. to K. B’s 3d, you reply with 3. Kt. takes K’s P.,
checking with Q. at K. R’s 5th, if the Kt. be taken. Should he play 2.
Q. to K. B’s 3d, or B. to Q’s 3d, you equally reply with B. to Q. B’s
4th, with the advantage. If he adopt 2. P. to Q’s 4th, you play 3. P.
takes P., following it up with Q’s Kt. to B’s 3d, if he retake with
Queen. If he play 2. P. to K. B’s 4th, you reply 3. Kt. takes K’s P., or
B. to Q. B’s 4th, and obtain the better game shortly. Having disposed
of these unsafe defences, we will now return to the examination of
the three satisfactory replies:—P. to Q’s 3d; K’s Kt. to B’s 3d; Q’s Kt.
to B’s 3d. For the last two, see Games II. and III.
Game I.—Philidor’s Defence.
WHITE. BLACK.
1. P. to K’s 4th. 1. P. to K’s 4th.
2. K’s Kt. to B’s 3d. 2. P. to Q’s 3d.
3. P. to Q’s 4th.
This is your best reply; if instead you play,—
3. B. to Q’s B’s 4th, he plays— 3. B. to K’s 2d. (best.)
3. P. takes P. (best.)
4. Q. takes P. 4. Q’s Kt. to B’s 3d.
If you play 4. Kt. takes P., probably his best reply is P. to Q’s 4th.
5. B. to Q. Kt.’s 5th. 5. B. to Q’s 2d.
6. Q. to Q’s sq. 6. B. to K’s 2d, or K’s Kt. to K’s
2d.
7. Q’s Kt. to B’s 3d, with the better position.
You may also, instead of 4. Q. takes P., try K’s B. to Q. B’s 4th. Black’s
best reply seems to be Q’s Kt. to B’s 3d.
Game II.—Petroff’s Defence.
WHITE. BLACK.
1. P. to K’s 4th. 1. P. to K’s 4th.
2. K’s Kt. to B’s 3d. 2. K’s Kt. to B’s 3d.
This defence was brought into notice by Petroff some years ago, and
has been approved of by many of the leading players. It is an
excellent defence when receiving the odds of a piece.
3. Kt. takes K’s P. 3. P. to Q’s 3d.
4. Kt. to K. B’s 3d. 4. Kt. takes K’s P.
5. P. to Q’s 4th, (or Var. A.) 5. P. to Q’s 4th.
6. B. to Q’s 3d. 6. B. to K’s 2d, (not to Q’s 3d.)
7. Castles. 7. Q’s Kt. to B’s 3d.
8. P. to Q. B’s 4th. 8. Q’s B. to K’s 3d.
9. P. to Q. R’s. 3d. 9. Castles.
10. Q. to Q. B’s 2d, with a slightly better game.
Variation A. on White’s 5th Move.
White has another move at this point, which seems at least as good
as 5. P. to Q’s 4th; viz., Q’s Kt. to B’s 3d.
3. Kt. takes K’s P. 3. P. to Q’s 3d.
5. Q’s Kt. to B’s 3d. 5. Kt. takes Kt.
6. Q’s P. takes Kt. 6. B. to K’s 2d.
7. B. to Q’s 3d.
White has the better opened game.
Game III.—The Giuoco Piano.
WHITE. BLACK.
1. P. to K’s 4th. 1. P. to K’s 4th.
2. K’s Kt. to B’s 3d. 2. Q’s Kt. to B’s 3d.
This is recommended by nearly all authors, as Black’s best reply. Of
late, however, there has been an opinion prevalent among many of
our best players, that it is inferior to K’s Kt. to B’s 3d, or even P. to
Q’s 3d. For our own part, we incline to the old move of Q’s Kt. to B’s
3d, but doubt whether there is any defence by which Black can
acquire a perfectly even game.
3. B. to Q. B’s 4th. 3. B. to Q. B’s 4th. (best.)
4. P. to Q. B’s 3d. 4. K’s Kt. to B’s 3d. (best.)
5. P. to Q’s 4th. 5. P. takes P.
6. P. to K’s 5th, (or Var. A.) 6. P. to Q’s 4th. (best.)
7. K’s B. to Q. Kt.’s 5th. 7. K’s Kt. to K’s 5th.
8. P. takes P. 8. B. to Q. Kt.’s 3d. (best.)
9. Castles. 9. Q’s B. to K. Kt.’s 5th.
10. B. takes Kt. (ch.) 10. P. takes B.
11. Q’s B. to K’s 3d, or Q’s Kt. to
B’s 3d.
11. Castles.
These are the moves given in the Handbook, and the game is
dismissed as equal. In actual play, however, we should take Black’s
game for choice.
Variation A. on White’s 6th Move.
WHITE. BLACK.
6. P. takes P. 6. B. to Q. Kt.’s 5th (ch.)
White’s 6th move is recommended by the German masters, and in
our opinion is preferable to P. to K’s 5th; Black’s best reply is to
check,—
7. B. to Q’s 2d. 7. B. takes B. (ch.)
8. Q’s Kt. takes B. 8. P. to Q’s 4th.
9. P. takes P. 9. Kt. takes P.
10. Q. to Q. Kt.’s 3d. 10. Q’s Kt. to K’s 2d.
11. K’s R. to K’s sq.
We much prefer White’s game.
Game IV.—The Evans’ Gambit.
It would be impossible, in the narrow limits assigned to our treatise,
to enter into the merits of this opening; we shall therefore give one
or two of the leading variations, and refer learners, who may be
desirous of a more comprehensive analysis, to Mr. Walker’s excellent
articles on this popular opening, in Vol. ix. of the “Chess Player’s
Chronicle,” the “Handbook,” and Mr. Boden’s useful little work,
entitled “A Popular Introduction to Chess.”
WHITE. BLACK.
1. P. to K’s 4th. 1. P. to K’s 4th.
2. K’s Kt. to B’s 3d. 2. Q’s Kt. to B’s 3d.
3. B. to Q. B’s 4th. 3. B. to Q. B’s 4th.
4. P. to Q. Kt.’s 4th. 4. B. takes Q. Kt.’s P.
5. P. to Q. B’s 3d. 5. B. to Q. B’s 4th.
6. Castles. 6. P. to Q’s 3d. (best.)
7. P. to Q’s 4th. 7. P. takes P.
8. P. takes P. 8. B. to Q. Kt.’s 3d.
9. B. to Q. Kt.’s 2d. 9. K’s Kt. to B’s 3d.
Instead of 9. B. to Q. Kt.’s 2d, you may adopt several other modes of
play; viz., 9. B. to Q. R’s 3d; 9. R. to K’s sq.; 9. P. to K. R’s 3d; 9. Q’s
Kt. to B’s 3d. To the two first of these, Black equally replies with Q’s
B. to K. Kt.’s 5th, with the better game. (For 9. P. to K. R’s 3d, and 9.
Q’s Kt. to B’s 3d, see Variations A. and B.)
10. P. to Q’s 5th. 10. Q’s Kt. to K’s 2d. (best.)
11. B. takes K’s Kt. 11. P. takes B.
12. K’s Kt. to Q’s 4th.
White has rather the better game.
Variation A. on White’s 9th Move.
WHITE. BLACK.
9. P. to K. R’s 3d. 9. Kt. to Q. R’s 4th.
This is the move usually recommended for the defence. Black may
however adopt, 9. P. to K. R’s 3d, apparently with little disadvantage.
10. B. to Q’s 3d. 10. K’s Kt. to K’s 2d.
11. P. to Q. R’s 4th. 11. Castles.
12. R. to Q. R’s 2d. 12. K. to R’s sq.
13. R. to K’s 2d. 13. P. to K. B’s 4th.
The game is about equal.
Variation B. on White’s 9th Move.
WHITE. BLACK.
9. Q’s Kt. to B’s 3d.
We have long suspected that the force of this form of the attack has
been vastly underrated. The following variations are taken from an
able analysis by Mr. G. B. Fraser, of Dundee, who has kindly
presented the result of his labours in the investigation of this attack
at our disposal:—
9. B. to K. Kt.’s 5th.
This move is considered by all the modern writers on Chess to be
Black’s best reply.
10. Q. to Q. R’s 4th. 10. B. takes Kt.
In reply to White’s last move, Black may play either 10. Q. to Q’s 2d,
or 10. B. to Q’s 2d, instead of the move in the text. If he adopt 10.
Q. to Q’s 2d, White replies with B. to Q. Kt.’s 5th, apparently winning
a piece. It has been suggested to us that perhaps Black’s best move
is 10. K. to B’s sq., to which White might reply with K. Kt. to his 5th;
and on Black’s moving K. Kt. to R’s 3d, advance the P. to Q’s 5th. (For
B. to Q’s 2d, see Variation A.)
11. P. to Q’s 5th. 11. B. to K. Kt.’s 5th. (best.)
12. P. takes Q’s Kt. 12. P. takes P.
Black might play also Q’s R. to Q. Kt.’s sq., whereupon follows,—
13. P. takes P. (dis. ch.) 13. B. to Q’s 2d.
14. Q. to Q. Kt.’s 3d, and wins.
13. P. to K’s 5th.
White might also with advantage take the Q. B’s P. checking,
although the move in the text seems stronger.
13. B. to K’s 3d.
If he play,—
13. Q. to Q’s 2d.
14.. P. takes P. 14. P. takes P.
15. Kt. to Q’s 5th, and wins.
14. B. takes B. 14. P. takes B.
15. Q. takes P. (ch.) 15. K. to B’s sq.
16. B. to Q. R’s 3d, with a winning game.
Variation A. on Black’s 10th Move.
WHITE. BLACK.
10. B. to Q’s 2d.
11. Q. to Q. Kt.’s 3d. 11. Kt. to Q. R’s 4th. (best.)
12. B. takes K. B’s P. 12. K. to B’s sq.
13. Q. to Q’s 5th. 13. Kt. to K. B’s 3d.
14. Q. to K. Kt.’s 5th. 14. K. takes B.
15. P. to K’s 5th. 15. P. to K. R’s 3d.
This is Black’s best reply. If he retire the Kt. to his square, or to K’s
square, or K. Kt.’s 5th, White will obtain a winning game, by 16. Q. to
K. B’s 4th. (ch.)
16. Q. to K. B’s 4th. 16. P. to K. Kt.’s 4th. (best.)
17. Q. to Q’s 2d.
This seems White’s most promising move. He may also play 17. Q.
takes Kt., upon which Black exchanges Queens with the better game.
17. Kt. to K. R’s 2d.
18. P. to Q’s 5th. 18. B. to K. B’s 4th.
Black might also take Pawn with Pawn, and the game would probably
be continued thus:—
18. P takes P.
19. Kt. takes P. (ch.) 19. K. to Kt.’s 2d.
20. B. to Q. Kt.’s 2d. 20. Kt. to K. B’s 3d.
21. K. to R’s sq. 21. R. to K’s sq.
22. P. to K. B’s 4th, and will win.
19. P. to K’s 6th. (ch.) 19. K. to K’s 2d.
20. Kt. to Q’s 4th. 20. B. to K. Kt.’s 3d.
21. P. to K. B’s 4th, with a fine attack.
Instead of retiring his Bishop to Q. B’s 4th, as in Game IV., Black
may, though apparently less advantageously, play him to Q. R’s 4th.
WHITE. BLACK.
1. P. to K’s 4th. 1. P. to K’s 4th.
2. K’s Kt. to B’s 3d. 2. Q’s Kt. to B’s 3d.
3. B. to Q. B’s 4th. 3. B. to Q. B’s 4th.
4. P. to Q. Kt.’s 4th. 4. B. takes P.
5. P. to Q. B’s 3d. 5. B. to Q. R’s 4th.
6. P. to Q’s 4th. (best.) 6. P. takes P.
7. Castles. 7. P. to Q’s 3d.
8. Q. to Q. Kt.’s 3d. 8. Q. to K. B’s 3d. (best.)
9. P. takes P., with a very fine game.
N.B.—Should Black at his 7th move, instead of 7. P. to Q’s 3d, play P.
to Q. B’s P., or K’s Kt. to B’s 3d, you, in reply, advance P. to K’s 5th,
with a powerful attack.
The Gambit Declined.
We now come to consider the consequences of Black’s not accepting
the gambit pawn at move 4.
WHITE. BLACK.
1. P. to K’s 4th. 1. P. to K’s 4th.
2. K’s Kt. to B’s 3d. 2. Q’s Kt. to B’s 3d.
3. B. to Q. B’s 4th. 3. B. to Q. B’s 4th.
4. P. to Q. Kt.’s 4th. 4. B. to Q. Kt.’s 3d
5. B. to Q. Kt.’s 2d. 5. P. to Q’s 3d.
6. P. to Q’S 4th.
We prefer White’s game.
There is also another method of declining the Gambit, which,
although hitherto unanalysed, seems to present some interesting
features.
WHITE. BLACK.
1. P. to K’s 4th. 1. P. to K’s 4th.
2. K’s Kt. to B’s 3d. 2. Q’s Kt. to B’s 3d.
3. B. to Q. B’s 4th. 3. B. to Q. B’s 4th.
4. P. to Q. Kt.’s 4th. 4. P. to Q’s 4th.
5. P. takes Q’s P. 5. Kt. takes Q. Kt.’s P.
6. P. to Q. B’s 3d. 6. Kt. takes Q’s P.
7. Q. to Q. Kt.’s 3d. 7. P. to Q. B’s 3d.
8. B. takes Kt. 8. Q. takes B. (best.)
9. Q. takes Q. 9. Q. takes Q.
10. Kt. takes K’s P. Even Game.
It is very possible some of White’s moves may be improved upon,
but the foregoing variation seems satisfactorily to demonstrate that
Black can gain no advantage.
Before taking our leave of this beautiful opening, we would again
remind the young player, that it is perfectly immaterial, whether
Black at move 5 captures the gambit pawn with B. or Kt., if with the
latter White equally replies with P. to Q. B’s 3d; and on Black’s
retiring the Kt. to Q. B’s 3d (best), the position becomes the same as
given in a previous variation.
Game V.—Ruy Lopez Knight’s Game.
We will now proceed to examine this, perhaps, the strongest and
most embarrassing attack the board affords. It is through fear of this
variation, that many of our best players have abandoned the usual
defence of 2. Q’s Kt. to B’s 3d, and turned to the King’s Knight’s
defence, or the old move of P. to Q’s 3d.
WHITE. BLACK.
1. P. to K’s 4th. 1. P. to K’s 4th.
2. K’s Kt. to B’s 3d. 2. Q’s Kt. to B’s 3d.
3. B. to Q. Kt.’s 5th. 3. K’s Kt. to B’s 3d.
By playing your Bishop thus, you again threaten to win his K’s P. The
move in the text, commonly known as the Berlin defence, is perhaps
as good a reply as the position admits. He has, however, three other
plausible moves; viz., B. to Q. B’s 4th; B. to K’s 2d; P. to Q’s 3d,
which will be touched upon hereafter.
4. P. to Q’s 4th. 4. P. takes P.
This move (or perhaps still better, 4. Castles) appears to yield a far
stronger attack than the old move of Q. K’s 2d. Black, instead of P.
takes P., might either reply with 4. K’s Kt. takes K’s P., or 4. Q’s Kt.
takes Q’s P. If the former, perhaps castling at once is your best reply;
if the latter, you take Kt. with K’s Kt., and then play P. to K’s 5th, as in
the present variation.
WHITE. BLACK.
5. P. to K’s 5th. 5. Kt. to K’s 5th.
6. Castles. 6. B. to K’s 2d. (best.)
7. Kt. takes P. 7. Kt. takes Kt. (or Var. A.)
8. Q. takes Kt. 8. P. to K. B’s 4th.
9. P. takes P. en passant. 9. Kt. takes P.
10. Q’s Kt. to B’s 3d.
White has a very fine game.
We will now turn our attention to the other modes of play Black may
adopt at his 3d move, instead of K’s Kt. to B’s 3d; viz., B. to Q. B’s
4th; P. to Q’s 3d; B. to K’s 2d. (see Variations B. C.)
Variation B. on Black’s 3d Move.
WHITE. BLACK.
1. P. to K’s 4th. 1. P. to K’s 4th.
2. K’s Kt. to B’s 3d. 2. Q’s Kt. to B’s 3d.
3. B. to Q. Kt.’s 5th. 3. B. to Q. B’s 4th.
4. P. to Q. B’s 3d. 4. K’s Kt. to K’s 2d. (best.)
5. Castles. 5. Castles.
6. P. to Q’s 4th. 6. P. takes P.
7. P. takes P. 7. B. to Q. Kt.’s 3d.
8. P. to Q’s 5th. 8. Q’s Kt. to his sq.
White may also play 8. Q’s Kt. to B’s 3d with advantage.
9. P. to Q’s 6th. 9. P. takes P.
10. Q. takes P. 10. B. to Q. B’s 2d.
11. Q. to Q. R’s 3d. 11. P. to Q’s 4th.
12. K’s R. to Q’s sq. 12. B. to Q’s 3d.
The move 12. K. R. to Q’s sq. is recommended in the Handbook as
giving White an advantage of position. The reply, however, in the
text, which occurred to the writer in actual play, seems calculated to
free Black from his embarrassment.
Variation C. on Black’s 3d Move.
WHITE. BLACK.
3. P. to Q’s 3d.
4. P. to Q’s 4th. 4. B. to Q’s 2d.
5. Castles.
Black has a tolerably safe though constrained position.
N.B.—For 3. B. to K’s 2d, see the games illustrative of this opening.
Game VI.—The Scotch Gambit.
This opening derives its name from having been adopted in the great
match by correspondence between the London and Edinburgh Chess
Clubs. The attack consequent on this opening at one time
considerably embarrassed Mr. Cochrane, who considered there was
no satisfactory defence to it. Major Jaenisch, however, with
characteristic patience and analysis, has proved the contrary.
WHITE. BLACK.
1. P. to K’s 4th. 1. P. to K’s 4th.
2. K’s Kt. to B’s 3d. 2. Q’s Kt. to B’s 3d.
3. P. to Q’s 4th. 3. P. takes P.
If he play 4. Kt. takes P., you reply with either Kt. takes Kt., or Kt.
takes K’s P., and obtain the better position.
4. B. to Q. B’s 4th. 4. B. to Q. B’s 4th.
This is now acknowledged to be Black’s best move; for 4. B. to Q.
Kt.’s 5th. (ch.) see Variation A.
5. P. to Q. B’s 3d. 5. K’s Kt. to B’s 3d. (best.)
And the position is the same as given in the leading variation of the
Giuoco Piano, see page 622. Should Black instead play: P. takes Q.
B’s P., you take his K. B’s P. with your B. (ch.); and if he takes the
Bishop with King, play Q. to Q’s 5th (ch.), and then take his Bishop.
Variation A. on Black’s 4th Move.
WHITE. BLACK.
1. P. to K’s 4th. 1. P. to K’s 4th.
2. K’s Kt. to B’s 3d. 2. Q’s Kt. to B’s 3d.
3. P. to Q’s 4th. 3. P. takes P.
4. B. to Q. B’s 4th. 4. B. to Q. Kt.’s 5th. (ch.)
5. P. to Q. B’s 3d. 5. P. takes P.
6. Castles. 6. P. to Q. B’s 7th.
Instead of 6. Castles, you might adopt Mr. Cochrane’s method of
continuing the attack, by 6. P. takes P.
N.B.—It would be very bad play of Black to take the Q. Kt.’s P.,
instead of the move in the text.
7. Q. takes P. 7. P. to Q’s 3d.
8. P. to Q. R’s 4th. 8. B. to Q. R’s 4th.
9. P. to Q. Kt.’s 4th. 9. B. to Kt.’s 3d.
10. Q. to Q. Kt.’s 3d, with a fine game.
There is another not uninteresting method of attack, which White
might adopt at his fifth move, instead of 5. P. to Q. B’s 3d; viz., K’s
Kt. to his 5th.
5. K’s Kt. to his 5th. 5. K’s Kt. to R’s 3d. (best.)
6. Kt. takes K. B’s P. 6. Kt. takes Kt.
7. B. takes Kt. (ch.) 7. K. takes B.
8. Q. to R’s 5th. 8. P. to K. Kt.’s 3d.
9. Q. takes B. 9. P. to Q’s 4th.
Black’s 9th move was first suggested in an able analysis on this
variation by Messrs. Jaenisch and Schummoff, in the “Chess Player’s
Chronicle” for July, 1850. It is far superior to the old move of P. to Q’s
3d, and without great care on your part will give him an irresistible
attack.
10. Castles. 10. P. takes P.
This is your strongest move, and appears to have been overlooked
by the talented authors of the article in question:—
10. P. to Q. B’s 3d. (best.) 10. R. to K’s sq.
If Black play 10. P. to Q’s 6th, you reply with Q. to Q. B’s 4th (ch.),
winning the King’s Pawn.
11. B. to K. Kt.’s 5th. 11. Q. to Q’s 3d.
12. Q. takes Q. 12. P. takes Q.
13. P. takes P. 13. Kt. takes P.
14. Q’s Kt. to B’s 3d.
And Black will have great difficulty in avoiding the loss of a Pawn.
There is another variation of this opening hitherto, we believe,
unanalysed, which, although it presents many points of interest,
seems altogether unknown to the majority of amateurs.
WHITE. BLACK.
1. P. to K’s 4th. 1. P. to K’s 4th.
2. K’s Kt. to B’s 3d. 2. Q’s Kt. to B’s 3d.
3. P. to Q’s 4th. 3. P. takes P.
4. B. to Q. B’s 4th. 4. B. to Q. B’s 4th.
5. Castles. 5. P. to Q’s 3d.
6. K’s Kt. to his 5th. 6. K’s Kt. to R’s 3d.
7. P. to K. B’s 4th. 7. P. to Q’s 6th. (dis. ch.)
If he play 7. B. to K. Kt.’s 5th, your best reply seems to be Q. to K’s
sq., although you might obtain a strong but hazardous attack by
playing Q. to her 3d, and afterwards, on his attacking her, with Q’s
Kt. to Q. Kt.’s 3d.
8. K. to R’s sq. 8. P. takes P.
9. Q. takes P. 9. Q’s Kt. to Q’s 5th.
10. Q. to Q. B’s 3d.
And although minus a Pawn, you have a fine game. If he now play P.
to K. B’s 3d, you reply with B. to K’s 3d.
THE KING’S BISHOP’S OPENING.
WHITE. BLACK.
1. P. to K’s 4th. 1. P. to K’s 4th.
2. K. B. to Q. B’s 4th. 2. K. B. to Q. B’s 4th.
By this move you attack his weakest point, viz. the K. B’s P. Most of
the classical writers on Chess concur in recommending the same
move as Black’s best reply. Major Jaenisch and the German authors
unanimously recommend 2. K’s Kt. to B’s 3d in preference, the move
generally adopted in actual play. (See Game III.)
White has now several methods of continuing the attack. He may
play the move recommended by Philidor, viz. P. to Q. B’s 3d, to which
Black may reply with either K’s Kt. to B’s 3d, or Q. to K. Kt.’s 4th, or
P. to Q’s 4th, in every case with at least an equal game.
You may also play K’s Kt. to B’s 3d, and upon Black’s bringing out his
Q’s Kt., the position is resolved into the Giuoco Piano.
If you play Q. to K. R’s 5th, (a move frequently adopted by young
players,) Black will reply with Q. to K B’s 3d, or to K’s 2d, with no
inferiority of position. Besides these moves you have two others at
command, viz. Q. to K’s 2d, and P. to Q. Kt.’s 4th, which we will
proceed to examine.
Game I.—The Lopez Gambit.
WHITE. BLACK.
1. P. to K’s 4th. 1. P. to K’s 4th.
2. K. B. to Q. B’s 4th. 2. K. B to Q. B’s 4th.
3. Q. to K’s 2d. 3. Q’s Kt. to B’s 3d.
By playing thus you threaten at once to take his K. B’s P. (ch.), and if
K. takes B, to win his Bishop in return by the check of the Q. The
move in the text is Black’s best reply, any other move would leave
you with at least an even position.
4. P. to Q. B’s 3d. 4. K’s Kt. to B’s 3d.
Instead of P. to Q. B’s 3d, you may take the adverse K. B’s P (ch.);
see Variation A.
5. P. to K. B’s 4th. 5. B. takes K’s Kt.
6. R. takes B. 6. Castles.
7. P. to Q’s 3d. 7. P. to Q’s 4th.
With a superior game.
Variation A. on White’s 4th Move.
WHITE. BLACK.
4. B. takes K. B’s P. (ch.) 4. K. takes B.
5. Q. to Q. B’s 4th. (ch.) 5. P. to Q’s 4th.
6. Q. takes B. 6. P. takes K’s P.
7. Q. to Q. B’s 4th (ch.) 7. B. to K’s 3d.
8. Q. takes P. 8. K’s Kt. to B’s 3d.
Black has by far the better game.
Game II.—The Double Gambit.
WHITE. BLACK.
1. P. to K’s 4th. 1. P. to K’s 4th.
2. K’s B. to Q. B’s 4th. 2. K’s B. to Q. B’s 4th.
3. P. to Q. Kt.’s 4th. 3. B. takes P.
4. P. to K. B’s 4th. 4. P. to Q’s 4th.
His best move. If, in lieu of P. to Q’s 4th, he adopt P. takes K. B’s P.,
you reply with K’s Kt. to B’s 3d, and obtain a fine attack.
5. P. takes Q’s P. 5. P. to K’s 5th.
If you play B. takes P., Black replies with P. to Q. B’s 3d, with the
better game.
6. K’s Kt. to K’s 2d. 6. K’s Kt. to B’s 3d.
7. Castles. 7. Castles.
8. Q’s Kt. to B’s 3d. 8. P. to Q. B’s 3d.
9. P. takes P. 9. Q’s Kt. takes P.
Black has the better game, thereby proving that the Double Gambit,
if correctly met, is disadvantageous to the first player.
Game III.
WHITE. BLACK.
1. P. to K’s 4th. 1. P. to K’s 4th.
2. K’s B. to Q. B’s 4th. 2. K’s Kt. to B’s 3d.
3. K’s Kt. to B’s 3d. 3. Kt. takes K’s P. (best.)
Your third move is probably the best on the board; 3. P. to Q’s 4th,
and 3. P. to Q’s 3d, seem much inferior, as Black immediately gains
the attack.
4. Q’s Kt. to B’s 3d. 4. K’s Kt. to B’s 3d.
Your fourth move was introduced two or three years ago, and was
first analysed by Mr. Boden, in his “Popular Introduction,” where
Black’s reply, of 4. K’s Kt. to B’s 3d, is recommended as his best; we
believe, however, he can at least as advantageously play 4. Kt. takes
Q’s Kt., or, as has been suggested to us, 4. P. to Q’s 4th.; see
Variation A.
5. Kt. takes K’s P. 5. P. to Q’s 4th.
6. B. to Q. Kt.’s 3d. 6. B. to Q’s 3d.
Equal game.
Variation A. on Black’s 4th Move.
WHITE. BLACK.
4. Kt. takes Q’s Kt.
5. Q’s P. takes Kt. 5. P. to Q. B’s 3d.
He may also play 5. P. to K. B’s 3d, by which he preserves his Pawn,
though with a somewhat inferior position.
6. Kt. takes K’s P. 6. P. to Q’s 4th.
7. B. to Q’s 3d. 7. B. to Q’s 3d.
8. K’s Kt. to B’s 3d. 8. Castles.
9. Castles.
Black has no inferiority of position.
THE KING’S GAMBIT.
Game I.
This beautiful and brilliant début, which, as Mr. Staunton observes,
gives birth to the most intricate and beautiful combinations the
chess-men are susceptible of, has been a universal favourite with
every class of players from the earliest stages of European Chess up
to the present day. In order to facilitate the analysis of this opening,
as far as our narrow limits will permit, we shall divide it into its three
principal heads; viz., The King’s Knight’s Gambit, The Allgaier Gambit,
and the King’s Bishop’s Gambit, and afterwards devote a few words
to the Gambit Declined.
WHITE. BLACK.
1. P. to K’s 4th. 1. P. to K’s 4th.
2. P. to K. B’s 4th. 2. P. takes P.
3. K’s Kt. to B’s 3d. 3. P. to K. Kt.’s 4th.
This is Black’s best move, indeed the only one to retain the gambit
pawn. He, however, may obtain a nearly equal game by 3. P. to Q,’s
4th. If he play 3. B. to K’s 2d, commonly known as the Cunningham
Gambit, White replies with B. to Q. B’s 4th, and on Black’s checking
with B. at R’s 5th, plays K. to B’s sq., with a much better game.
4. B. to Q. B’s 4th. 4. B. to K. Kt.’s 2d (best), or
Var. A.
5. P. to Q B’s 3d. 5. P. to K. R’s 3d. (best.)
Should Black play the obvious-looking move of 4. P. to Q’s 3d, White
gains a striking advantage by the following mode of play:—
6. Q. to Q. Kt.’s 3d. 6. Q. to K’s 2d.
7. Q. to Q. Kt.’s 5th. (ch.) 7. B. on P. interposes.
8. Q. takes K. Kt.’s P., &c.
6. P. to Q’s 4th. 6. P. to Q’s 3d.
7. Castles. 7. Q’s Kt. to Q’s 2d.
This is usually considered his best move, though Q’s Kt. to B’s 3d, or
K’s Kt. to K’s 2d, are perhaps equally good.
8. P. to K. Kt.’s 3d. 8. P. to K. Kt.’s 5th.
If he takes P. with P., you get a fine attack by B. takes K. B’s P. (ch.)
9. Kt. to K. R’s 4th, (or to K’s
sq.)
9. Kt. to Q. Kt.’s 3d.
10. B. to Q. Kt.’s 3d. 10. P. to K. B’s 6th.
He has a Pawn more, and a strong position.
N.B.—Instead of 5. P. to Q. B’s 3d, you may also play 5. P. to K. R’s
4th, with a good attack.
The Salvio Gambit.
Variation A. on Black’s 4th Move.
WHITE. BLACK.
1. P. to K’s 4th. 1. P. to K’s 4th.
2. P. to K. B’s 4th. 2. P. takes P.
3. K’s Kt. to B’s 3d. 3. P. to K. Kt.’s 4th.
4. B. to Q. B’s 4th. 4. P. to K. Kt.’s 5th.
5. Kt. to K’s 5th. 5. Q. to K. R’s 5th. (ch.)
Instead of 5. Kt. to K’s 5th, you may castle, for which see Game II.
(The Muzio Gambit.)
6. K. to B’s sq. 6. K’s Kt. to R’s 3d.
7. P. to Q’s 4th. 7. P. to K. B’s 6th.
8. P. takes P. 8. P. to Q’s 3d.
9. B. takes K’s Kt. 9. Q’s P. takes Kt.
And Black has a fine Game.
You seem to have no better move than 9. B. takes K’s Kt.; if you play
Kt. to Q’s 3d, he replies with K. Kt.’s P. takes P., and your game is
gone.
Game II.—The Muzio Gambit.
WHITE. BLACK.
1. P. to K’s 4th. 1. P. to K’s 4th.
2. P. to B’s 4th. 2. P. takes P.
3. K’s Kt. to B’s 3d. 3. P. to K. Kt.’s 4th.
4. B. to Q. B’s 4th. 4. P. to K. Kt.’s 5th.
5. Castles. 5. P. takes Kt.
This sacrifice of the Kt., daring as it may appear at first sight, is,
nevertheless, considered by modern analysis to be quite sound.
6. Q. takes P. 6. Q. to K. B’s 3d. (best.)
7. P. to K’s 5th. 7. Q. takes K’s P.
Your 7th move is given by most of “the books” as the best. We have
found Q’s Kt. to B’s 3d at this point a strong move in actual play.
8. P. to Q’s 3d. 8. K’s B. to R’s 3d.
9. Q’s B. to Q’s 2d. 9. K’s Kt. to K’s 2d.
10. Q’s Kt. to B’s 3d. 10. P. to Q. B’s 3d.
Some authors recommend Q’s Kt. to B’s 3d as more attacking than
the move in the text. It has however been proved untenable in the
“Handbook” (page 281.)
11. Q’s R. to K’s sq. 11. Q. to Q. B’s 4th. (ch.)
12. K. to R’s sq. 12. P. to Q’s 4th.
Mr. Staunton recommends 12. R. to K. B’s 2d, instead of retiring the
King to R’s sq. We have tried this move in actual play, following it up
with Q’s R. to K. B’s sq., which seems to give White an overwhelming
attack.
13. Q. to K. R’s 5th. 13. Q. to Q’s 3d.
14. B. takes Q. P. 14. P. takes B.
15. Kt. takes Q’s P. 15. Q’s Kt. to B’s 3d.
16. Q’s B. to his 3d. 16. Q. to K. Kt.’s 3d.
17. R. takes Kt. (ch.) 17. K. to B’s sq.
The moves up to this point, both for attack and defence, are given by
Jaenisch and the “Handbook” as the best the board affords; with the
best play, probably the game ought to be drawn.
We much regret that our space will not allow of a more elaborate
analysis of this beautiful gambit; we trust, however, that the above
variations will show the young player the difficulty and resource of
this opening.
We cannot quit the subject without alluding to a defence lately
introduced by Messrs. Kling and Horwitz, which consists in Black’s
playing Q. to K’s 2d at his 5th move, instead of taking the Kt. With all
deference and respect for the wonderful and almost inexhaustible
power of analysis displayed by these two eminent players, we must
confess that we have our doubts as to the soundness of the move in
question. The young players, however, will find it full analysed in
Kling and Horwitz’s “Chess Studies,” one of the most valuable and
interesting works on Chess of modern days, which needs not our
recommendation to find its way to the book-shelf of every lover of
Chess.
Game I.—The Allgaier Gambit.
This opening, the invention of which is erroneously ascribed to
Allgaier, has of late years become a favourite with all classes of
players, though we agree with Mr. Boden in considering that its
resources have been considerably overrated, although not perhaps
from the same reason as adduced in his “Popular Introduction.”
WHITE. BLACK.
1. P. to K’s 4th. 1. P. to K’s 4th.
2. P. to K. B’s 4th. 2. P. takes P.
3. K’s Kt. to B’s 3d. 3. P. to K. Kt.’s 4th.
4. P. to K. R’s 4th. 4. P. to K. Kt.’s 5th.
You may here play your Kt. to K’s 5th, or to K. Kt.’s 5th. Modern
authorities agree in recommending the former, as giving a more
lasting attack. As, however, some very embarrassing positions may
arise from playing the Kt. to his 5th, we will examine the
consequences resulting from it at present, leaving the move of 5. Kt.
to K’s 5th for after examination, (Game II.).
5. Kt. to Kt.’s 5th. 5. P. to K. R’s 3d. (best.)
6. Kt. takes K. B’s P. 6. K. takes Kt.
7. B. to Q. B’s 4th. (ch.) 7. P. to Q’s 4th.
Your 7th move gives a far more embarrassing attack than the old
move of Q. takes K. Kt.’s P., to which Black replies, K’s Kt. to B’s 3d.
with a winning position.
In the present game Black’s reply of P. to Q’s 4th is his only move. If
he retire K. to Kt.’s sq., you must gain some advantage by Q. takes K.
Kt.’s P., &c.
8. B. takes P. (ch.) 8. K. to K’s sq.
In our opinion the move of K. to K’s sq. is preferable to K. to Kt.’s 2d.
At all events the defence seems much simpler, and at least as
satisfactory.
9. P. to Q’s 4th. 9. P. to K. B’s 6th. (best.)
10. P. takes P. 10. B. to K’s 2d.
With a winning game.
Game II.
WHITE. BLACK.
1. P. to K’s 4th. 1. P. to K’s 4th.
2. P. to K. B’s 4th. 2. P. takes P.
3. K. Kt.’s to B’s 3d. 3. P. to K. Kt.’s 4th.
4. P. to K. R’s 4th. 4. P. to K. Kt.’s 5th.
6. Kt. to K’s 5th. 5. P. to K. R’s 4th.
Black’s 5th move has been recommended by almost all the
authorities as the correct reply; although the moves 5. P. to Q’s 3d;
5. B. to K’s 2d; or 5. K’s Kt. to B’s 3d, seem, to say the least, equally
advantageous for the second player.
6. B. to Q. B’s 4th. 6. Kt. to K. R’s 3d.
7. P. to Q’s 4th. 7. P. to K. B’s 6th.
8. P. takes P. (best.) 8. P. to Q’s 3d.
9. Kt. to Q’s 3d. 9. B. to K’s 2d.
10. B. to K’s 3d.
This is the move given by the “books;” B. to K. B’s 4th, however,
appears at least as good.
10. B. takes K. R’s P. (ch.)
11. K. to Q’s 2d. 11. P. takes P.
12. Q. takes P. 12. B. to K. Kt.’s 5th.
13. Q. to K. B’s 4th. 13. Q’s Kt. to B’s 3d.
One of the advantages of the move 10. B. to K. B’s 4th, as suggested
above, seems to be that the White Q. could not be played to K’s 3d,
instead of the more assailable part of K. B’s 4th.
14. Q’s Kt. to B’s 3d.
And the game, in spite of the formidable appearance of the adverse
Bishops, seems in White’s favour, from the disposition of his forces,
so well calculated for a vigorous assault.
N.B.—It would be very unadvisable for Black to reply to White’s move
of Kt. to Q. B’s 3d. with Kt. takes Q’s P.
14. Kt. takes Q’s P.
15. B. takes Kt. 15. B. to K. Kt.’s 4th.
16. B. takes K’s R. 16. B. takes Q. (ch.)
17. Kt. takes B.
And White has a more than ample equivalent for his lost Queen, and
a considerable superiority of position.
Game I.—The Bishop’s Gambit.
WHITE. BLACK.
1. P. to K’s 4th. 1. P. to K’s 4th.
2. P. to K. B’s 4th. 2. P. takes P.
3. B. to Q. B’s 4th. 3. Q. to K. R’s 5th. (ch.)
Black’s 3d move is the one generally recommended at this point. He
has, however, the option of several other moves, the most important
of which seems to be P. to Q’s 4th. (See Game II.)
4. K. to B’s sq. 4. P. to K. Kt.’s 4th. (best.)
If Black, instead of the move in the text, play B. to Q. B’s 4th, a
move frequently adopted by young players, you reply with P. to Q.’s
4th and K’s Kt. to B’s 3d, with a fine position.
5. Q’s Kt. to B’s 3d. 5. B. to K. Kt.’s 2d. (best.)
6. P. to Q’s 4th. 6. P. to Q’s 3d.
7. K’s Kt. to B’s 3d. 7. Q. to K. R’s 4th.
8. P. to K. R’s 4th. 8. P. to K. R’s 3d.
9. P. to K’s 5th. 9. P. takes P.
Major Jaenisch, to whom we owe almost all our knowledge of this
fine opening, at one time we believe recommended 9. B. to K. Kt.’s
5th for Black, instead of P. takes P., but has we believe qualified his
opinion in favour of the move in the text.
10. Q’s Kt. to Q’s 5th. 10. K. to Q’s sq.
11. P. takes P. 11. B. to Q’s 2d.
12. K. to Kt.’s sq. 12. Q. to K. Kt.’s 3d.
13. P. takes P. 13. P. takes P.
14. R. takes R. 14. B. takes R.
15. K’s Kt. takes P. 15. Q. takes K’s Kt.
This sacrifice is the invention of Petroff, the great Russian master;
and without the greatest care in the defence, will give you an
overpowering attack.
16. Q’s B. takes P. 16. Q. to K. Kt.’s 3d. (best.)
17. P. to K’s 6th. 17. P. takes P.
18. Kt. takes Q. B’s P. 18. P. to K’s 4th.
19. Kt. to K’s 6th. (ch.)
Game II.
WHITE. BLACK.
1. P. to K’s 4th. 1. P. to K’s 4th.
2. P. to K. B’s 4th. 2. P. takes P.
3. B. to Q. B’s 4th. 3. P. to Q’s 4th.
We would recommend this defence to the young player, (especially
when receiving the odds of a piece,) as it leads at once to at least an
even game, and avoids an intricate and difficult series of moves, the
least error in which would be fatal.
4. B. takes P. 4. K’s Kt. to B’s 3d.
5. Q. to K’s 2d. 5. Kt. takes B.
This is probably your best move, though Kt. to Q. B’s 3d, may be
played without danger.
6. P. takes Kt. (dis. ch.) 6. B. to K’s 2d.
7. Q. to K. B’s 3d. (best.) 7. B. to K. R’s 5th. (ch.)
8. P. to K. Kt’s 3d. 8. P. takes P.
9. P. takes P. 9. B. to K. Kt.’s 4th.
10. Q’s Kt. to B’s 3d.
The game is about even.
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  • 5. Perspectives on Global Development 2010 Shifting Wealth
  • 8. ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT The OECD is a unique forum where governments work together to address the economic, social and environmental challenges of globalisation. The OECD is also at the forefront of efforts to understand and to help governments respond to new developments and concerns, such as corporate governance, the information economy and the challenges of an ageing population. The Organisation provides a setting where governments can compare policy experiences, seek answers to common problems, identify good practice and work to co-ordinate domestic and international policies. The OECD member countries are: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Chile, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Korea, Luxembourg, Mexico, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal, the Slovak Republic, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, the United Kingdom and the United States. The Commission of the European Communities takes part in the work of the OECD. OECD Publishing disseminates widely the results of the Organisation’s statistics gathering and research on economic, social and environmental issues, as well as the conventions, guidelines and standards agreed by its members. The Development Centre of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development was established by decision of the OECD Council on 23 October 1962 and comprises 24 member countries of the OECD: Austria, Belgium, Chile, the Czech Republic, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Korea, Luxembourg, Mexico, the Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Slovak Republic, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey and the United Kingdom. In addition, the following non-OECD countries are members of the Development Centre: Brazil (since March 1994); India (February 2001); Romania (October 2004); Thailand (March 2005); South Africa (May 2006); Egypt, Israel and Viet Nam (March 2008); Colombia (July 2008); Indonesia (February 2009); Costa Rica, Mauritius, Morocco and Peru (March 2009) and the Dominican Republic (November 2009). The Commission of the European Communities also takes part in the Centre's Governing Board. The Development Centre, whose membership is open to both OECD and non-OECD countries, occupies a unique place within the OECD and in the international community. Members finance the Centre and serve on its Governing Board, which sets the biennial work programme and oversees its implementation. The Centre links OECD members with developing and emerging economies and fosters debate and discussion to seek creative policy solutions to emerging global issues and development challenges. Participants in Centre events are invited in their personal capacity. ISBN 978-92-64-08465-0 (print) ISBN 978-92-64-08472-8 (PDF) Also available in French: Perspectives du développement mondial 2010 : Le basculement de la richesse Photo credits: Cover © Magali Geney. Corrigenda to OECD publications may be found on line at: www.oecd.org/publishing/corrigenda. © OECD 2010 You can copy, download or print OECD content for your own use, and you can include excerpts from OECD publications, databases and multimedia products in your own documents, presentations, blogs, websites and teaching materials, provided that suitable acknowledgment of OECD as source and copyright owner is given. All requests for public or commercial use and translation rights should be submitted to [email protected]. Requests for permission to photocopy portions of this material for public or commercial use shall be addressed directly to the Copyright Clearance Center (CCC) at [email protected] or the Centre français d’exploitation du droit de copie (CFC) at [email protected]. The opinions expressed and arguments employed in this publication are the sole responsibility of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of the OECD, its Development Centre or of the governments of their member countries.
  • 9. FOREWORD PERSPECTIVES ON GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT 2010 © OECD 2010 3 Foreword Over the past decade, a group of emerging and developing economies has been leading the way in terms of growth and development, shifting the world’s economic centre of gravity. Global growth in gross domestic product (GDP) in the last ten years owes more to the developing world than to the advanced economies. If current trends continue, developing countries will account for 57% of world GDP by 2030. Dynamic economies, especially the Asian giants, China and India, are powerful engines for economic growth, and their role has been confirmed by their contribution to the global recovery from the financial and economic crisis. Policy makers in both developing and developed countries need to capitalise on these trends. The rising prosperity in many parts of the developing world represents an enormous opportunity. Nearly half a billion people have moved out of extreme poverty in the last two decades, a rate of progress unprecedented in recent times. Development is an integral part of the OECD’s overall mission to build a stronger, cleaner and fairer world economy. This first Perspectives on Global Development documents the fundamental and systemic changes in the global economy over the last 20 years. It focuses on the reasons for the improved economic performance of major developing countries and its consequences. The report draws especial attention to South-South linkages, which promise to be one of the main engines of growth over the coming decade. Economic ties between developing countries have strengthened as new poles of growth have emerged. Between 1990 and 2008, South-South trade multiplied more than 20 times over, while world trade expanded only four-fold. Policy needs to harness the full potential of these South-South flows. By reducing trade tariffs to the levels prevailing among advanced countries, our calculations suggest that developing countries could achieve substantial welfare benefits – worth more than double the gains from similar reductions on North-South trade. The opportunities to benefit from South-South links are not limited to trade but also include aid, foreign direct investment and migration. There is increasing recognition, however, that economic growth is not enough. The issue of inequality still needs to be tackled. The report documents that inequality within many rapidly growing developing economies has been increasing. For social development to match pace with growth, deliberate and determined interventions are necessary to make growth pro-poor and to establish social policies that protect and promote well-being. Thanks to the new-found wealth in emerging economies, governments can now afford to boost public spending on social protection. Policy innovations in the South provide at least part of the answer. Cash transfer schemes have been adopted by a number of emerging economies – Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Mexico and South Africa – since the late 1990s, and they now benefit 90 million households. These schemes are not insurance-based or contributory-based, but rather are financed through government taxes. Policy making at the international level also needs to adjust to a world in which developing countries have a growing economic weight. The decisions we make, the actions we take and how we work together must recognise and reflect the new economic reality. The most significant and positive
  • 10. FOREWORD PERSPECTIVES ON GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT 2010 © OECD 2010 4 development so far has been the Group of 20 establishing itself as the premier forum for international economic co-operation. International institutions also need to adapt. The OECD is opening up and becoming more global and inclusive. We have welcomed new members, and our Enhanced Engagement Initiative is strengthening our dialogue and co-operation with five major emerging market economies, the countries at the heart of the Shifting Wealth story: Brazil, China, India, Indonesia and South Africa. This report shows that “the rise of the rest” is not a “threat to the west”. Overall, it is good news for development and good news for the global economy. The OECD will continue to support evidence- based policy making to promote progress and reduce poverty and inequality to achieve a stronger, cleaner and fairer world economy. Angel Gurría Secretary-General Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
  • 11. TABLE OF CONTENTS PERSPECTIVES ON GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT 2010 © OECD 2010 5 Table of contents Table of Contents Acknowledgements . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 Acronyms and Abbreviations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 Preface . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 Executive Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 Introduction – Why “Shifting Wealth” and Why Now? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23 Chapter 1. Shifting Wealth and the New Geography of Growth . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28 The new geography of growth . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31 Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40 Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40 References. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41 Chapter 2. The Asian Giants and their Macroeconomic Impact . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44 A new engine of growth . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44 A labour supply shock – with an effect on global wages . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47 New and growing demand – reflected in commodity prices. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49 The effect of the giants on terms of trade . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52 The Asian impact on global interest rates . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54 Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63 Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 64 References. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65 Chapter 3. The Increasing Importance of the South to the South. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 70 South-South trade . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71 Foreign direct investment. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 81 Aid . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 87 Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 90 Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 90 References. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 92 Chapter 4. Shifting Wealth and Poverty Reduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 97 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 98 An important reduction in absolute income poverty. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 98 Inequality, growth and poverty reduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 102
  • 12. TABLE OF CONTENTS PERSPECTIVES ON GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT 2010 © OECD 2010 6 New challenges to making growth benefit the poor. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 106 Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 109 Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 110 References. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 111 Chapter 5. The Growing Technological Divide in a Four-speed World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 115 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 116 The technological divide within the developing world . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 116 New workshops of the world? The role of manufacturing . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 122 Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 129 Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 130 References. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 131 Chapter 6. Harnessing the Winds of Change . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 135 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 136 Development strategies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 136 Capitalising on foreign direct investment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 139 Dealing with the resource boom . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 142 Revitalising agriculture and rural development . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 144 Policies for pro-poor growth. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 146 Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 148 Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 149 References. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 149 Chapter 7. Collective Responses to Shifting Wealth . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 153 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 154 A new architecture for global governance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 154 Changing interests and coalitions in international co-operation. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 159 Technology transfer. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 165 Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 166 Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 166 References. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 167 Statistical Annex: The Four-speed World Classification. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 169 Tables 1.1. Real GDP growth in OECD member and non-member economies, 2008-2011 . . . 29 1.2. Classification of the four-speed world . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33 1.3. Shifting wealth in the four-speed world . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37 2.1. China’s share of the world’s… . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47 2.2. Commodity price volatility . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51 2.3. Major non-OECD holders of US treasury securities. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 62 3.1. Major African trade partners in 2008. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 74 3.2. Average applied tariff by region and by sector . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 78 3.3. Selected scenarios for trade liberalisation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 79 3.4. The gains for the South from deeper South-South liberalisation, standard model closure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 79
  • 13. TABLE OF CONTENTS PERSPECTIVES ON GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT 2010 © OECD 2010 7 3.5. The gains for the South from deeper South-South liberalisation, non-standard model closure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 80 3.6. Official development assistance reported to the DAC . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 87 3.7. Allocation of bilateral southern development co-operation, 2006 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 88 4.1. Poverty reduction and growth for selected countries (1995-2005) . . . . . . . . . . . . . 100 4.2. Under-5 infant mortality rates by region (per 1 000 live births) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 102 4.3. Human development in a four-speed world . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 102 4.4. Changes in the Gini coefficient in the 1990s and 2000s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 105 5.1. Growth accounting, 2000-07 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 117 5.2. Manufacturing value added per capita 1990-2007 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 125 5.3. Index of technological sophistication for selected economies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 126 7.1. Anti-dumping initiations, 1995-2007 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 164 A.1. Affluent . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 170 A.2. Converging. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 171 A.3. Struggling. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 173 A.4. Poor. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 174 Figures 0.1. Share of the global economy in purchasing power parity terms . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 0.2. The four-speed world in the 1990s. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16 0.3. The four-speed world in the 2000s. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16 0.4. Global imbalances in the current account . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17 0.5. Potential gains from South-South trade liberalisation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18 0.6. Share of the global economy in purchasing power parity terms, 1990-2030. . . . . 24 1.1. Change in real GDP in 2009 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28 1.2. Bouncing back – GDP, change on previous year. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30 1.3. Accelerating growth in the developing world, 1960-2010. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30 1.4. Contribution to world GDP/PPP growth. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31 1.5. The four-speed world in the 1990s. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34 1.6. The four-speed world in the 2000s. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34 1.7. From a diverging world… to a converging one?. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38 1.8. Average KOF index scores according to the four-speed world classification . . . . 39 2.1. Contribution to world GDP/PPP growth. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45 2.2. Real commodity prices . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49 2.3. Net barter terms of trade, 2000-08 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52 2.4. Global imbalances in the current account . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55 2.5. International reserves . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 57 2.6. Sectoral savings balances in China and OECD countries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59 2.7. Son preference and savings rates . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61 2.8. Public debt as a share of GDP . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 62 3.1. Exports by region . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71 3.2. Inter-regional South-South trade flows in 2008. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 72 3.3. Chinese exports of capital goods to low- and middle-income countries 1990-2007 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 77 3.4. Shifts in relative prices for US imported goods, 2000-09 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 78 3.5. Global FDI inflows, 1970-2008 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 81 3.6. Net FDI outflows, major emerging markets, 2000-08 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 82
  • 14. TABLE OF CONTENTS PERSPECTIVES ON GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT 2010 © OECD 2010 8 3.7. Aid from non-DAC donors. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 88 4.1. Headcount poverty rates . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 99 4.2. Poverty and growth – a strong relationship, but much unexplained variation . . . . . 99 4.3. Inequality in selected countries, 1985-2007 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 104 4.4. Relative poverty rates for selected OECD and non-OECD countries . . . . . . . . . . . . 109 5.1. Tertiary enrolment by region . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 118 5.2. Research and development expenditure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 120 5.3. Patent intensity. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 122 5.4. Manufacturing value added per capita, 1990-2008 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 123 6.1. Distribution of bilateral investment treaties (BITs), year ending 2008 . . . . . . . . . . 139 6.2. Arable land per person . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 145 7.1. Declining share of the G7 in global output, 1960-2008 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 155
  • 15. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS PERSPECTIVES ON GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT 2010 © OECD 2010 9 Acknowledgements Perspectives on Global Development 2010 is the product of a collaborative effort by a number of professionals inside the OECD Development Centre. Javier Santiso had the initial inspiration, while Helmut Reisen was responsible for developing the core concept. The report has been prepared under the direction of Andrew Mold and Johannes Jütting by a team comprising Helmut Reisen, Juan Ramón de Laiglesia, Annalisa Prizzon and Christopher Garroway de Coninck. Major inputs were received from Martha Baxter, Jason Gagnon, Burcu Hacibedel, Sebastian Paulo, Laura Recuero Virto, Javier Santiso, Edouard Turkisch, John Whalley and Jaejoon Woo. Important inputs to the whole process were also provided by Karen Barnes, Nejma Bouchama, Amalia Johnsson, David Khoudour, Estelle Loiseau, Pamela Marqueyrol, Elodie Masson, Paula Nagler, Dilan Ölcer and Abla Safir. Perspectives on Global Development 2010 has involved extensive consultations with Non- Residential Fellows who contributed to the report with background papers and their advice: Amar Bhattacharya, The Group of Twenty-Four on International Monetary Affairs and Development (G24); Eliana Cardoso, Fundação Getúlio Vargas in São Paulo; Martyn Davies, The China Africa Network, Gordon Institute of Business Science, University of Pretoria; Augustin Fosu, United Nations University-World Institute for Development Economics Research; Yasheng Huang, MIT Sloan School of Management; Homi Kharas, Wolfensohn Center for Development, Brookings Institution; Rajneesh Narula, University of Reading Business School; Liliana Rojas Suarez, Center for Global Development. The authors of this report would like to acknowledge the following individuals for their comments and support: Angel Alonso Arroba, David Batt, Daniel Cohen, Jonathan Coppel, Christian Daude, Sean Dougherty, Colm Foy, Kiichiro Fukasaku, Jill Gaston, Andrea Goldstein, Guillaume Grosso, Joaquim Oliveira Martins, Charles Oman, Pier Carlo Padoan, Gabriela Ramos, Andrew Rogerson and Jean-Philippe Stijns. Special thanks go to Laura Alfaro (Harvard University), Raphael Kaplinsky (Open University) and John Whalley (University of Western Ontario), who provided extensive comments on the draft and the key messages of the report. Many thanks also to Adrià Alsina, Ly-Na Dollon, Magali Geney, Vanda Legrandgérard, Sala Patterson and Olivier Puech from the OECD Development Centre for preparing the report for publication, in both paper and electronic form. Special thanks go to Michèle Girard, who provided substantial bibliographical help and was responsible for organising the French translation of this report. David Camier-Wright was the principal editor of the report. Financial support from the French Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Fundación Carolina and the Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation is gratefully acknowledged.
  • 17. ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS PERSPECTIVES ON GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT 2010 © OECD 2010 11 Acronyms and Abbreviations AD Anti-Dumping AFTA ASEAN Free Trade Area ASEAN Association of Southeast Asian Nations BIT Bilateral Investment Treaty CACM Central America Common Market CCT Conditional Cash Transfer CIS Commonwealth of Independent States COMESA Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa DAC Development Assistance Committee EBA Everything But Arms Agreement EPZ Export Processing Zone ETDZ Economic and Technology Development Zone EU European Union FAO Food and Agriculture Organization FDI Foreign Direct Investment GATT General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade GDP Gross Domestic Product GNI Gross National Income GTAP Global Trade Analysis Project IBRD International Bank for Reconstruction and Development IEA International Energy Agency IFI International Financial Institution IMF International Monetary Fund ITS Index of Technological Sophistication LDC Least-Developed Country MERCOSUR Mercado Común del Sur MVA Manufacturing Value Added NAMA Non-Agricultural Market Access NTB Non-Tariff Barrier to Trade ODA Official Development Assistance PPP Purchasing-Power Parity R&D Research and Development SADC Southern African Development Community SDR Special Drawing Right SEZ Special Economic Zone SOE State-Owned Enterprise SSM Special Safeguard Mechanism SWF Sovereign Wealth Fund
  • 18. ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS PERSPECTIVES ON GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT 2010 © OECD 2010 12 TFP Total Factor Productivity TRIPS Trade Related Intellectual Property Rights UNCTAD United Nations Conference on Trade and Development WEO World Economic Outlook WTO World Trade Organization
  • 19. PREFACE PERSPECTIVES ON GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT 2010 © OECD 2010 13 Preface Major events are often misunderstood when they occur, and their relevance underestimated. Perspectives on Global Development: Shifting Wealth aims to avoid a costly lag in recognising the new geography of growth – a structural realignment in the global economy at the opening of the 21st century. The seeds of this change were planted over the last 20 years. Billions of people have entered the global market economy – as workers, consumers and investors – and economic catch-up has lifted hundreds of millions out of poverty. The financial crisis, far from reversing this process, has accelerated it; many emerging economies came out of recession faster than OECD countries. Although the rise of emerging markets, and particularly the remarkable growth of China and India, has already captured media attention, Shifting Wealth comprehensively documents the changing geography of economic growth across the developing world as a whole. It examines its global macroeconomic implications, as well as highlighting the increasing importance of South-South interaction in areas such as foreign direct investment, trade and aid flows. The report flags not only the emergence of a growing technological divide within the developing world, but also concerns about rising inequality within countries. Shifting Wealth looks at these trends from the point of view of developing countries, an angle that is often overlooked in mainstream debates. The changing economic centre of gravity has altered the context in which development policy is made, offering new lessons and tools for implementation. Developing countries are now reviewing their development strategies to capitalise on the increasing potential of South-South linkages and co-operation. The report also argues that the global governance architecture should better reflect the new economic reality, giving greater representation and responsibility to emerging and developing economies. Shifting Wealth is not a stand-alone report. It builds on a body of work by the Development Centre on the impact of emerging economies’ growth on Africa, Asia and Latin America. The Rise of China and India: What’s in it for Africa? (2006) illustrated how the growing economic power of the Asian Giants was affecting the growth patterns of African countries, while The Visible Hand of China in Latin America (2007) explored the opportunities and challenges that Latin American economies face as Chinese influence in the region continues to grow. Through these books and other Development Centre working papers and policy insights, it has become clear that these changes are all part of a broader transformation. Shifting Wealth also takes inspiration from the work of long-time contributor and friend of the Development Centre, the distinguished British economist Angus Maddison, who sadly died in April this year. The concept of Shifting Wealth stands on the bedrock of Maddison’s data and conclusions, including his landmark studies for the Development
  • 20. PREFACE PERSPECTIVES ON GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT 2010 © OECD 2010 14 Centre, The World Economy: A Millennial Perspective and Historical Statistics (2006, 2010) and Chinese Economic Performance in the Long Run, 960-2030 A.D. (2007). This report is dedicated to his memory. Mario Pezzini Director ad interim OECD Development Centre
  • 21. Perspectives on Global Development 2010 Shifting Wealth © OECD 2010 15 Executive Summary In 2009 China became the leading trade partner of Brazil, India and South Africa. The Indian multinational Tata is now the second most active investor in sub-Saharan Africa. Over 40% of the world’s researchers are now in Asia. As of 2008, developing countries were holding USD 4.2 trillion in foreign currency reserves, more than one and a half times the amount held by rich countries. These are just a few examples of a 20-year structural transformation of the global economy in which the world’s economic centre of gravity has moved towards the East and South, from OECD members to emerging economies, a phenomenon this report calls “shifting wealth”. Perspectives on Global Development shows how developing countries have become important economic actors and demonstrates the dynamism of the new South-South economic ties. Although the process has been ongoing for 20 years, the opportunities and risks for poor countries posed by shifting wealth are only starting to be understood. OECD non-member economies have markedly increased their share of global output since the 2000s, and projections predict that this trend will continue (Figure 0.1). This re- alignment of the world economy is not a transitory phenomenon, but represents a structural change of historical significance. What does the strong growth of large emerging countries mean for our thinking on development? How can countries capitalise on the intensification of links between the developing world? Can lessons from the emerging countries be replicated for those countries which are still poor? What does the new economic geography mean for global Figure 0.1. Share of the global economy in purchasing power parity terms % of global GDP, PPP basis Note: These data apply Maddison’s long-term growth projections to his historical PPP-based estimates for 29 OECD member countries and 129 non-member economies. Source: Authors’ calculations based on Maddison (2007) and Maddison (2010). 1 2 http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/888932287957 2000 2010 2030 OECD member countries 43% OECD member countries 51% OECD member countries 60% Non- member economies 40% Non- member economies 49% Non- member economies 57%
  • 22. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY PERSPECTIVES ON GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT 2010 © OECD 2010 16 governance? This report addresses these questions by looking at the process of convergence and its macroeconomic impact; how this is fuelling increased South-South interactions; and the distributional challenges that growth can bring. Shifting up a gear in a four-speed world It is no longer enough to divide the world simply between North and South, developed and developing countries. In order to understand the complexity of the shift, this report takes and develops James Wolfensohn’s concept of a “four-speed” world. This splits the world into Affluent, Converging, Struggling and Poor countries according to their income and rate of growth per capita relative to the industrialised world. This framework reveals a new geography of global growth, exposing the heterogeneity of the South: some developing countries are beginning to catch up to the living standards of the affluent, others are struggling to break through a middle-income “glass ceiling”, and some continue to suffer under the weight of extreme poverty. Seen like this, two distinct time periods emerge in terms of growth performance. For most developing economies, the 1990s were another “lost decade”, hampered by financial crises and instability (Figure 0.2). Two regions in particular failed to rebuild their economic fortunes: Latin American growth responded only weakly to reforms, and sub-Saharan Africa continued to stagnate. In the 2000s, things moved up a gear and much of the developing world enjoyed its first decade of strong growth in many years (Figure 0.3). The new millennium saw the resumption – for the first time since the 1970s – of a trend towards strong convergence in per capita incomes with the high-income countries. The number of converging countries (that is, countries doubling the average per capita growth of the high-income OECD countries) more than quintupled during this period (from 12 to 65), and the number of poor countries more than halved (from 55 to 25). China and India grew at three to four times the OECD average during the 2000s. Nevertheless, there was a great diversity in outcomes and a group of struggling and poor countries continued to underperform. Figure 0.2. The four-speed world in the 1990s Figure 0.3. The four-speed world in the 2000s Note: See Chapter 1 for a detailed description of the country classification used. Source: Authors’ calculations based on World Bank (2009). 1 2 http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/888932287976 1 2 http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/888932287995 Poor Struggling Converging Affluent Poor Struggling Converging Affluent
  • 23. Exploring the Variety of Random Documents with Different Content
  • 24. To make the wheel. Take a piece of board, A, and strike a circle upon it the size you wish your wheel to be of, B, and with the compass saw cut close round to the stroke; cut out a square hole, C, in the centre for the nave to join. Then get the blacksmith to put an iron rim round the wheel to keep it from splitting, and a round pin in each side of the nave, and put a staple in each side of the barrow to keep the wheel in its place. Paint the whole of any colour you choose, and you will have PUNCH’S COACH. THE WAY TO MAKE A BOX. First ascertain the size you wish your box to be of. Then cut off your stuff, but take care to cut it a quarter of an inch longer than the size of your box from outside to outside. Should you want it deeper or broader than the length of a deal, the widest of which is generally only eleven inches; suppose, for instance, you wish your box to be 18 inches deep, and you have only 9-inch deal to make it with, you will of course have to join two together, or make what is called in carpentering a glue joint. First, then, after you have cut off your
  • 25. stuff, take your jack plane and “scuffle the rough off;” then put your board edgeways into the bench-screw, and take your trying plane or long plane to get the edge of the deals that are to be glued together perfectly straight and even; and lastly, use the joiner plane, which will take off a nice uniform shaving of the whole length of the board. Proceed exactly in the same manner with the other board to be joined to the first. Then, after having made each thoroughly smooth, clap the two together and see if they will lie close in every part, if not, you must plane them till they do, taking care to plane the edges perfectly square, or at right angles to the surface of the board, for if you are not careful in this particular, when your boards are glued together they will be of this form. When you have joined them properly for glueing, let your glue be nicely hot and not too thick, and hold both edges of the boards together so that you can with a brush put the glue on both at one time, put the two together very quickly, let one of them be in the bench-screw, and while there rub the other backwards and forwards till the glue sets, which it will soon do if well joined. Let the whole dry, and then the glued part will be as strong as any other part of the board. After your sides, ends, bottom, and top are thus prepared, you must then plane them up nicely, so that they are perfectly smooth and straight. Use first the jack plane, then the trying plane. When this is done you have to proceed to a nice little job, namely, to dovetail the corners together, so as to form your box. In this process much depends upon the planing and squaring of the stuff, for if you have not done this nicely the dovetailing will be very imperfectly performed. Assuming that everything has been well done, then take the two ends of the box, and see that each is perfectly square and true to the other. Then allow one-eighth of an inch more than the thickness of your sides, and set out the ends, squaring it over on both sides, which when the dovetails are cut out will form the inside of the box. TO CUT THE DOVETAILS.
  • 26. Take one “end-piece” of the box and place it endways into the bench-screw, and mark out the dovetails on the edge of the board inside, thus: then with your dovetail saw cut in into the marks down to the lines squared over on the flat side like this— Then with a chisel cut out that part of the wood that is crossed, and leave the other part, this being the part which will form the pins or tails. Then take one side of your box and lay it flat on the bench, the inside uppermost; then place the end you have cut on it, keeping the edges flush, and mark round the shape of the pins, which will leave them after this form—
  • 27. the black places being the mortices which are to be cut out. In cutting out these you must be careful to cut within side of the stroke, so that the mortices will be a little smaller than the pins, which will admit of their being driven in quite tight, and will allow the glue to adhere to them (for you have to glue these when you fix them). When you have thus put the ends and sides together let them stand till the glue gets dry, then take your planes and plane the quarter of an inch off the pins which you allowed to be a little longer than the length of the box, and you have then made the body of your box. THE BOTTOM OF THE BOX.
  • 28. Cut your bottom the exact size of the box, nail the bottom on, and “get out” a piece of wood (by cutting and planing in the usual manner) to nail round so as to form a skirting to it, and at the same time hide the joints of the bottom; “get out” a similar piece of wood to nail round the top which will form the lid. Then get a pair of box joints and a lock, and having put them on by a stroke of your own ingenuity you will have a “box.”
  • 29. THE GAME OF CHESS. It is the principal aim of this little treatise to assist the young player in his examination of the theory of the openings in the game of chess —a branch of study that to the beginner generally appears to be of a most dull and uninviting character, but which, nevertheless, is of the highest importance to all those who are ambitious of attaining to any degree of proficiency in the game. Before proceeding further, we would presume that the young player possesses at least an elementary knowledge of the game, such as the moves and value of the various pieces, the laws of checking, &c. Should he not be thus fortunate, we would strongly advise him to have recourse to the assistance of some chess-friend for an explanation of the elementary principles; for, thanks to the almost daily increasing knowledge of the game, there are few localities so
  • 30. remote that cannot produce a brother of the free-masonry of chess. Though, in compliance with the time-honoured custom of all writers on chess, we subjoin a brief description of the various pieces and their moves, yet it is our firm conviction that no beginner has ever succeeded in mastering by the assistance of “the books” alone, the mere elementary principles of the game. In the following pages we have endeavoured to give a brief synopsis of the most important of the openings, collected from the most approved authorities, and at the same time to present to the tyro as it were a passing glimpse of the chief modern discoveries. If we have occasionally strayed from the beaten path, or insensibly diverged into any of the as yet unexplored regions of chess, we would fain crave the reader’s kind indulgence for any of those errors which almost invariably find their way into variations that have not undergone the “limæ labor,” or the test of actual play. Finally, should we have had the good fortune by the following pages to assist a single beginner in mastering any of the elementary difficulties which beset the rough road that only leads to proficiency in chess—should there, through our means, have been added but a single recruit to the ranks of Caissa, well will our labour have been repaid! THE LAWS OF THE GAME. I.—The chess-board must be so placed that each player has a white corner square nearest his right-hand. If the board have been improperly placed, it must be adjusted, provided four moves on each side have not been played, but not afterwards. II.—If a Piece or Pawn be misplaced at the beginning of the game, either player may insist upon the mistake being rectified, if he discover it before playing his fourth move, but not afterwards. III.—Should a player, at the commencement of the game, omit to place all his men on the board, he may correct the omission before playing his fourth move, but not afterwards.
  • 31. IV.—If a player, undertaking to give the odds of a Piece or Pawn, neglect to remove it from the board, his adversary, after four moves have been played on each side, has the choice of proceeding with or recommencing the game. V.—When no odds are given, the players must take the first move of each game alternately, drawing lots to determine who shall begin the first game. If a game be drawn, the player who began it has the first move of the following one. VI.—The player who gives the odds has the right of moving first in each game, unless otherwise agreed. Whenever a Pawn is given, it is understood to be always the King’s Bishop’s Pawn. VII.—A Piece or Pawn touched must be played, unless at the moment of touching it the player say “J’adoube” or words to that effect; but if a Piece or Pawn be displaced or overturned by accident, it may be restored to its place. VIII.—While a player holds the Piece or Pawn he has touched, he may play it to any other than the square he took it from; but, having quitted it, he cannot recall the move. IX.—Should a player take one of his adversary’s Pieces or Pawns, without saying “J’adoube” or words to that effect, his adversary may compel him to take it; but if it cannot be legally taken, he may oblige him to move the King; should his King, however, be so posted that he cannot be legally moved, no penalty can be inflicted. X.—Should a player move one of his adversary’s men, his antagonist has the option of compelling him—1st, to replace the Piece or Pawn and move his King; 2d, to replace the Piece or Pawn and take it; 3d, to let the Piece or Pawn remain on the square to which it had been played, as if the move were correct. XI.—If a player take one of his adversary’s men with one of his own that cannot take it without making a false move, his antagonist has
  • 32. the option of compelling him to take it with a Piece or Pawn that can legally take it, or to move his own Piece or Pawn which he touched. XII.—Should a player take one of his own men with another, his adversary has the option of obliging him to move either. XIII.—If a player make a false move, i. e. play a Piece or Pawn to any square to which it cannot legally be moved, his adversary has the choice of three penalties; viz., 1st, of compelling him to let the Piece or Pawn remain on the square to which he played it; 2d, to move correctly to another square; 3d, to replace the Piece or Pawn and move his King. XIV.—Should a player move out of his turn, his adversary may choose whether both moves shall remain, or the second be retracted. XV.—When a Pawn is first moved in a game, it may be played one or two squares; but in the latter case the opponent has the privilege of taking it en passant with any Pawn which could have taken it had it been played one square only. A Pawn cannot be taken en passant by a Piece. XVI.—A player cannot castle in the following cases:— 1. If the King or Rook have been moved. 2. If the King be in check. 3. If there be any Piece between the King and Rook. 4. If the King pass over any square attacked by one of the adversary’s Pieces or Pawns. Should a player castle in any of the above cases, his adversary has the choice of three penalties; viz., 1st, of insisting that the move remain; 2d, of compelling him to move the King; 3d, of compelling him to move the Rook. XVII.—If a player touch a Piece or Pawn that cannot be moved without leaving the King in check, he must replace the Piece or Pawn
  • 33. and move his King; but if the King cannot be moved, no penalty can be inflicted. XVIII.—If a player attack the adverse King without saying “Check,” his adversary is not obliged to attend to it; but if the former, in playing his next move, were to say “Check,” each player must retract his last move, and he that is under check must obviate it. XIX.—If the King has been in check for several moves, and it cannot be ascertained how it occurred, the player whose King is in check must retract his last move and free his King from the check; but if the moves made subsequent to the check be known, they must be retracted. XX.—Should a player say “Check,” without giving it, and his adversary, in consequence, move his King, or touch a Piece or Pawn to interpose, he may retract such move, provided his adversary have not completed his last move. XXI.—Every Pawn which has reached the eighth or last square of the chess-board, must be immediately exchanged for a Queen or any other Piece the player may think fit, even though all the Pieces remain on the board. It follows, therefore, that he may have two or more Queens, three or more Rooks, Bishops, or Knights. XXII.—If a play remain, at the end of the game, with a Rook and Bishop against a Rook; with both Bishops only; with Knight and Bishop only, &c., he must checkmate his adversary in fifty moves on each side at most, or the game will be considered as drawn; the fifty moves commence from the time the adversary gives notice that he will count them. The law holds good for all other checkmates of Pieces only, such as Queen, or Rook only, Queen against a Rook, &c. &c. XXIII.—If a player agree to checkmate with a particular Piece or Pawn, or on a particular square, or engage to force his adversary to stalemate or checkmate him, he is not restricted to any number of moves.
  • 34. XXIV.—A stalemate is a drawn game. XXV.—If a player make a false move, castle improperly, &c. &c., the adversary must take notice of such irregularity before he touches a Piece or Pawn, or he will not be allowed to inflict any penalty. XXVI.—Should any question arise, respecting which there is no law, or in case of a dispute respecting any law, the players must refer the point to the most skilful disinterested bystanders, and their decision must be considered as conclusive. THE KING’S KNIGHT’S OPENING. WHITE. BLACK. 1. P. to K’s 4th. 1. P. to K’s 4th. 2. K’s Kt. to B’s 3d. Black has now only three satisfactory methods of defence; viz., 2. P. to Q’s 3d; 2. K’s Kt. to B’s 3d; 2. Q’s Kt. to B’s 3d. He may, however, adopt five other modes of play; viz., P. to K. B’s 3d; Q. to K. B’s 3d; B. to Q’s 3d; P. to Q’s 4th; and P. to K. B’s 4th. Of these the first three are utterly untenable, and the last two are highly dangerous. Should he play 2. P. to K. B’s 3d, you reply with 3. Kt. takes K’s P., checking with Q. at K. R’s 5th, if the Kt. be taken. Should he play 2. Q. to K. B’s 3d, or B. to Q’s 3d, you equally reply with B. to Q. B’s 4th, with the advantage. If he adopt 2. P. to Q’s 4th, you play 3. P. takes P., following it up with Q’s Kt. to B’s 3d, if he retake with Queen. If he play 2. P. to K. B’s 4th, you reply 3. Kt. takes K’s P., or B. to Q. B’s 4th, and obtain the better game shortly. Having disposed of these unsafe defences, we will now return to the examination of the three satisfactory replies:—P. to Q’s 3d; K’s Kt. to B’s 3d; Q’s Kt. to B’s 3d. For the last two, see Games II. and III. Game I.—Philidor’s Defence. WHITE. BLACK.
  • 35. 1. P. to K’s 4th. 1. P. to K’s 4th. 2. K’s Kt. to B’s 3d. 2. P. to Q’s 3d. 3. P. to Q’s 4th. This is your best reply; if instead you play,— 3. B. to Q’s B’s 4th, he plays— 3. B. to K’s 2d. (best.) 3. P. takes P. (best.) 4. Q. takes P. 4. Q’s Kt. to B’s 3d. If you play 4. Kt. takes P., probably his best reply is P. to Q’s 4th. 5. B. to Q. Kt.’s 5th. 5. B. to Q’s 2d. 6. Q. to Q’s sq. 6. B. to K’s 2d, or K’s Kt. to K’s 2d. 7. Q’s Kt. to B’s 3d, with the better position. You may also, instead of 4. Q. takes P., try K’s B. to Q. B’s 4th. Black’s best reply seems to be Q’s Kt. to B’s 3d. Game II.—Petroff’s Defence. WHITE. BLACK. 1. P. to K’s 4th. 1. P. to K’s 4th. 2. K’s Kt. to B’s 3d. 2. K’s Kt. to B’s 3d. This defence was brought into notice by Petroff some years ago, and has been approved of by many of the leading players. It is an excellent defence when receiving the odds of a piece. 3. Kt. takes K’s P. 3. P. to Q’s 3d. 4. Kt. to K. B’s 3d. 4. Kt. takes K’s P. 5. P. to Q’s 4th, (or Var. A.) 5. P. to Q’s 4th. 6. B. to Q’s 3d. 6. B. to K’s 2d, (not to Q’s 3d.) 7. Castles. 7. Q’s Kt. to B’s 3d. 8. P. to Q. B’s 4th. 8. Q’s B. to K’s 3d.
  • 36. 9. P. to Q. R’s. 3d. 9. Castles. 10. Q. to Q. B’s 2d, with a slightly better game. Variation A. on White’s 5th Move. White has another move at this point, which seems at least as good as 5. P. to Q’s 4th; viz., Q’s Kt. to B’s 3d. 3. Kt. takes K’s P. 3. P. to Q’s 3d. 5. Q’s Kt. to B’s 3d. 5. Kt. takes Kt. 6. Q’s P. takes Kt. 6. B. to K’s 2d. 7. B. to Q’s 3d. White has the better opened game. Game III.—The Giuoco Piano. WHITE. BLACK. 1. P. to K’s 4th. 1. P. to K’s 4th. 2. K’s Kt. to B’s 3d. 2. Q’s Kt. to B’s 3d. This is recommended by nearly all authors, as Black’s best reply. Of late, however, there has been an opinion prevalent among many of our best players, that it is inferior to K’s Kt. to B’s 3d, or even P. to Q’s 3d. For our own part, we incline to the old move of Q’s Kt. to B’s 3d, but doubt whether there is any defence by which Black can acquire a perfectly even game. 3. B. to Q. B’s 4th. 3. B. to Q. B’s 4th. (best.) 4. P. to Q. B’s 3d. 4. K’s Kt. to B’s 3d. (best.) 5. P. to Q’s 4th. 5. P. takes P. 6. P. to K’s 5th, (or Var. A.) 6. P. to Q’s 4th. (best.) 7. K’s B. to Q. Kt.’s 5th. 7. K’s Kt. to K’s 5th. 8. P. takes P. 8. B. to Q. Kt.’s 3d. (best.) 9. Castles. 9. Q’s B. to K. Kt.’s 5th. 10. B. takes Kt. (ch.) 10. P. takes B.
  • 37. 11. Q’s B. to K’s 3d, or Q’s Kt. to B’s 3d. 11. Castles. These are the moves given in the Handbook, and the game is dismissed as equal. In actual play, however, we should take Black’s game for choice. Variation A. on White’s 6th Move. WHITE. BLACK. 6. P. takes P. 6. B. to Q. Kt.’s 5th (ch.) White’s 6th move is recommended by the German masters, and in our opinion is preferable to P. to K’s 5th; Black’s best reply is to check,— 7. B. to Q’s 2d. 7. B. takes B. (ch.) 8. Q’s Kt. takes B. 8. P. to Q’s 4th. 9. P. takes P. 9. Kt. takes P. 10. Q. to Q. Kt.’s 3d. 10. Q’s Kt. to K’s 2d. 11. K’s R. to K’s sq. We much prefer White’s game. Game IV.—The Evans’ Gambit. It would be impossible, in the narrow limits assigned to our treatise, to enter into the merits of this opening; we shall therefore give one or two of the leading variations, and refer learners, who may be desirous of a more comprehensive analysis, to Mr. Walker’s excellent articles on this popular opening, in Vol. ix. of the “Chess Player’s Chronicle,” the “Handbook,” and Mr. Boden’s useful little work, entitled “A Popular Introduction to Chess.” WHITE. BLACK. 1. P. to K’s 4th. 1. P. to K’s 4th. 2. K’s Kt. to B’s 3d. 2. Q’s Kt. to B’s 3d. 3. B. to Q. B’s 4th. 3. B. to Q. B’s 4th.
  • 38. 4. P. to Q. Kt.’s 4th. 4. B. takes Q. Kt.’s P. 5. P. to Q. B’s 3d. 5. B. to Q. B’s 4th. 6. Castles. 6. P. to Q’s 3d. (best.) 7. P. to Q’s 4th. 7. P. takes P. 8. P. takes P. 8. B. to Q. Kt.’s 3d. 9. B. to Q. Kt.’s 2d. 9. K’s Kt. to B’s 3d. Instead of 9. B. to Q. Kt.’s 2d, you may adopt several other modes of play; viz., 9. B. to Q. R’s 3d; 9. R. to K’s sq.; 9. P. to K. R’s 3d; 9. Q’s Kt. to B’s 3d. To the two first of these, Black equally replies with Q’s B. to K. Kt.’s 5th, with the better game. (For 9. P. to K. R’s 3d, and 9. Q’s Kt. to B’s 3d, see Variations A. and B.) 10. P. to Q’s 5th. 10. Q’s Kt. to K’s 2d. (best.) 11. B. takes K’s Kt. 11. P. takes B. 12. K’s Kt. to Q’s 4th. White has rather the better game. Variation A. on White’s 9th Move. WHITE. BLACK. 9. P. to K. R’s 3d. 9. Kt. to Q. R’s 4th. This is the move usually recommended for the defence. Black may however adopt, 9. P. to K. R’s 3d, apparently with little disadvantage. 10. B. to Q’s 3d. 10. K’s Kt. to K’s 2d. 11. P. to Q. R’s 4th. 11. Castles. 12. R. to Q. R’s 2d. 12. K. to R’s sq. 13. R. to K’s 2d. 13. P. to K. B’s 4th. The game is about equal. Variation B. on White’s 9th Move. WHITE. BLACK. 9. Q’s Kt. to B’s 3d.
  • 39. We have long suspected that the force of this form of the attack has been vastly underrated. The following variations are taken from an able analysis by Mr. G. B. Fraser, of Dundee, who has kindly presented the result of his labours in the investigation of this attack at our disposal:— 9. B. to K. Kt.’s 5th. This move is considered by all the modern writers on Chess to be Black’s best reply. 10. Q. to Q. R’s 4th. 10. B. takes Kt. In reply to White’s last move, Black may play either 10. Q. to Q’s 2d, or 10. B. to Q’s 2d, instead of the move in the text. If he adopt 10. Q. to Q’s 2d, White replies with B. to Q. Kt.’s 5th, apparently winning a piece. It has been suggested to us that perhaps Black’s best move is 10. K. to B’s sq., to which White might reply with K. Kt. to his 5th; and on Black’s moving K. Kt. to R’s 3d, advance the P. to Q’s 5th. (For B. to Q’s 2d, see Variation A.) 11. P. to Q’s 5th. 11. B. to K. Kt.’s 5th. (best.) 12. P. takes Q’s Kt. 12. P. takes P. Black might play also Q’s R. to Q. Kt.’s sq., whereupon follows,— 13. P. takes P. (dis. ch.) 13. B. to Q’s 2d. 14. Q. to Q. Kt.’s 3d, and wins. 13. P. to K’s 5th. White might also with advantage take the Q. B’s P. checking, although the move in the text seems stronger. 13. B. to K’s 3d. If he play,— 13. Q. to Q’s 2d.
  • 40. 14.. P. takes P. 14. P. takes P. 15. Kt. to Q’s 5th, and wins. 14. B. takes B. 14. P. takes B. 15. Q. takes P. (ch.) 15. K. to B’s sq. 16. B. to Q. R’s 3d, with a winning game. Variation A. on Black’s 10th Move. WHITE. BLACK. 10. B. to Q’s 2d. 11. Q. to Q. Kt.’s 3d. 11. Kt. to Q. R’s 4th. (best.) 12. B. takes K. B’s P. 12. K. to B’s sq. 13. Q. to Q’s 5th. 13. Kt. to K. B’s 3d. 14. Q. to K. Kt.’s 5th. 14. K. takes B. 15. P. to K’s 5th. 15. P. to K. R’s 3d. This is Black’s best reply. If he retire the Kt. to his square, or to K’s square, or K. Kt.’s 5th, White will obtain a winning game, by 16. Q. to K. B’s 4th. (ch.) 16. Q. to K. B’s 4th. 16. P. to K. Kt.’s 4th. (best.) 17. Q. to Q’s 2d. This seems White’s most promising move. He may also play 17. Q. takes Kt., upon which Black exchanges Queens with the better game. 17. Kt. to K. R’s 2d. 18. P. to Q’s 5th. 18. B. to K. B’s 4th. Black might also take Pawn with Pawn, and the game would probably be continued thus:— 18. P takes P. 19. Kt. takes P. (ch.) 19. K. to Kt.’s 2d. 20. B. to Q. Kt.’s 2d. 20. Kt. to K. B’s 3d. 21. K. to R’s sq. 21. R. to K’s sq. 22. P. to K. B’s 4th, and will win.
  • 41. 19. P. to K’s 6th. (ch.) 19. K. to K’s 2d. 20. Kt. to Q’s 4th. 20. B. to K. Kt.’s 3d. 21. P. to K. B’s 4th, with a fine attack. Instead of retiring his Bishop to Q. B’s 4th, as in Game IV., Black may, though apparently less advantageously, play him to Q. R’s 4th. WHITE. BLACK. 1. P. to K’s 4th. 1. P. to K’s 4th. 2. K’s Kt. to B’s 3d. 2. Q’s Kt. to B’s 3d. 3. B. to Q. B’s 4th. 3. B. to Q. B’s 4th. 4. P. to Q. Kt.’s 4th. 4. B. takes P. 5. P. to Q. B’s 3d. 5. B. to Q. R’s 4th. 6. P. to Q’s 4th. (best.) 6. P. takes P. 7. Castles. 7. P. to Q’s 3d. 8. Q. to Q. Kt.’s 3d. 8. Q. to K. B’s 3d. (best.) 9. P. takes P., with a very fine game. N.B.—Should Black at his 7th move, instead of 7. P. to Q’s 3d, play P. to Q. B’s P., or K’s Kt. to B’s 3d, you, in reply, advance P. to K’s 5th, with a powerful attack. The Gambit Declined. We now come to consider the consequences of Black’s not accepting the gambit pawn at move 4. WHITE. BLACK. 1. P. to K’s 4th. 1. P. to K’s 4th. 2. K’s Kt. to B’s 3d. 2. Q’s Kt. to B’s 3d. 3. B. to Q. B’s 4th. 3. B. to Q. B’s 4th. 4. P. to Q. Kt.’s 4th. 4. B. to Q. Kt.’s 3d 5. B. to Q. Kt.’s 2d. 5. P. to Q’s 3d. 6. P. to Q’S 4th. We prefer White’s game.
  • 42. There is also another method of declining the Gambit, which, although hitherto unanalysed, seems to present some interesting features. WHITE. BLACK. 1. P. to K’s 4th. 1. P. to K’s 4th. 2. K’s Kt. to B’s 3d. 2. Q’s Kt. to B’s 3d. 3. B. to Q. B’s 4th. 3. B. to Q. B’s 4th. 4. P. to Q. Kt.’s 4th. 4. P. to Q’s 4th. 5. P. takes Q’s P. 5. Kt. takes Q. Kt.’s P. 6. P. to Q. B’s 3d. 6. Kt. takes Q’s P. 7. Q. to Q. Kt.’s 3d. 7. P. to Q. B’s 3d. 8. B. takes Kt. 8. Q. takes B. (best.) 9. Q. takes Q. 9. Q. takes Q. 10. Kt. takes K’s P. Even Game. It is very possible some of White’s moves may be improved upon, but the foregoing variation seems satisfactorily to demonstrate that Black can gain no advantage. Before taking our leave of this beautiful opening, we would again remind the young player, that it is perfectly immaterial, whether Black at move 5 captures the gambit pawn with B. or Kt., if with the latter White equally replies with P. to Q. B’s 3d; and on Black’s retiring the Kt. to Q. B’s 3d (best), the position becomes the same as given in a previous variation. Game V.—Ruy Lopez Knight’s Game. We will now proceed to examine this, perhaps, the strongest and most embarrassing attack the board affords. It is through fear of this variation, that many of our best players have abandoned the usual defence of 2. Q’s Kt. to B’s 3d, and turned to the King’s Knight’s defence, or the old move of P. to Q’s 3d. WHITE. BLACK. 1. P. to K’s 4th. 1. P. to K’s 4th.
  • 43. 2. K’s Kt. to B’s 3d. 2. Q’s Kt. to B’s 3d. 3. B. to Q. Kt.’s 5th. 3. K’s Kt. to B’s 3d. By playing your Bishop thus, you again threaten to win his K’s P. The move in the text, commonly known as the Berlin defence, is perhaps as good a reply as the position admits. He has, however, three other plausible moves; viz., B. to Q. B’s 4th; B. to K’s 2d; P. to Q’s 3d, which will be touched upon hereafter. 4. P. to Q’s 4th. 4. P. takes P. This move (or perhaps still better, 4. Castles) appears to yield a far stronger attack than the old move of Q. K’s 2d. Black, instead of P. takes P., might either reply with 4. K’s Kt. takes K’s P., or 4. Q’s Kt. takes Q’s P. If the former, perhaps castling at once is your best reply; if the latter, you take Kt. with K’s Kt., and then play P. to K’s 5th, as in the present variation. WHITE. BLACK. 5. P. to K’s 5th. 5. Kt. to K’s 5th. 6. Castles. 6. B. to K’s 2d. (best.) 7. Kt. takes P. 7. Kt. takes Kt. (or Var. A.) 8. Q. takes Kt. 8. P. to K. B’s 4th. 9. P. takes P. en passant. 9. Kt. takes P. 10. Q’s Kt. to B’s 3d. White has a very fine game. We will now turn our attention to the other modes of play Black may adopt at his 3d move, instead of K’s Kt. to B’s 3d; viz., B. to Q. B’s 4th; P. to Q’s 3d; B. to K’s 2d. (see Variations B. C.) Variation B. on Black’s 3d Move. WHITE. BLACK. 1. P. to K’s 4th. 1. P. to K’s 4th. 2. K’s Kt. to B’s 3d. 2. Q’s Kt. to B’s 3d. 3. B. to Q. Kt.’s 5th. 3. B. to Q. B’s 4th.
  • 44. 4. P. to Q. B’s 3d. 4. K’s Kt. to K’s 2d. (best.) 5. Castles. 5. Castles. 6. P. to Q’s 4th. 6. P. takes P. 7. P. takes P. 7. B. to Q. Kt.’s 3d. 8. P. to Q’s 5th. 8. Q’s Kt. to his sq. White may also play 8. Q’s Kt. to B’s 3d with advantage. 9. P. to Q’s 6th. 9. P. takes P. 10. Q. takes P. 10. B. to Q. B’s 2d. 11. Q. to Q. R’s 3d. 11. P. to Q’s 4th. 12. K’s R. to Q’s sq. 12. B. to Q’s 3d. The move 12. K. R. to Q’s sq. is recommended in the Handbook as giving White an advantage of position. The reply, however, in the text, which occurred to the writer in actual play, seems calculated to free Black from his embarrassment. Variation C. on Black’s 3d Move. WHITE. BLACK. 3. P. to Q’s 3d. 4. P. to Q’s 4th. 4. B. to Q’s 2d. 5. Castles. Black has a tolerably safe though constrained position. N.B.—For 3. B. to K’s 2d, see the games illustrative of this opening. Game VI.—The Scotch Gambit. This opening derives its name from having been adopted in the great match by correspondence between the London and Edinburgh Chess Clubs. The attack consequent on this opening at one time considerably embarrassed Mr. Cochrane, who considered there was no satisfactory defence to it. Major Jaenisch, however, with characteristic patience and analysis, has proved the contrary. WHITE. BLACK.
  • 45. 1. P. to K’s 4th. 1. P. to K’s 4th. 2. K’s Kt. to B’s 3d. 2. Q’s Kt. to B’s 3d. 3. P. to Q’s 4th. 3. P. takes P. If he play 4. Kt. takes P., you reply with either Kt. takes Kt., or Kt. takes K’s P., and obtain the better position. 4. B. to Q. B’s 4th. 4. B. to Q. B’s 4th. This is now acknowledged to be Black’s best move; for 4. B. to Q. Kt.’s 5th. (ch.) see Variation A. 5. P. to Q. B’s 3d. 5. K’s Kt. to B’s 3d. (best.) And the position is the same as given in the leading variation of the Giuoco Piano, see page 622. Should Black instead play: P. takes Q. B’s P., you take his K. B’s P. with your B. (ch.); and if he takes the Bishop with King, play Q. to Q’s 5th (ch.), and then take his Bishop. Variation A. on Black’s 4th Move. WHITE. BLACK. 1. P. to K’s 4th. 1. P. to K’s 4th. 2. K’s Kt. to B’s 3d. 2. Q’s Kt. to B’s 3d. 3. P. to Q’s 4th. 3. P. takes P. 4. B. to Q. B’s 4th. 4. B. to Q. Kt.’s 5th. (ch.) 5. P. to Q. B’s 3d. 5. P. takes P. 6. Castles. 6. P. to Q. B’s 7th. Instead of 6. Castles, you might adopt Mr. Cochrane’s method of continuing the attack, by 6. P. takes P. N.B.—It would be very bad play of Black to take the Q. Kt.’s P., instead of the move in the text. 7. Q. takes P. 7. P. to Q’s 3d. 8. P. to Q. R’s 4th. 8. B. to Q. R’s 4th. 9. P. to Q. Kt.’s 4th. 9. B. to Kt.’s 3d.
  • 46. 10. Q. to Q. Kt.’s 3d, with a fine game. There is another not uninteresting method of attack, which White might adopt at his fifth move, instead of 5. P. to Q. B’s 3d; viz., K’s Kt. to his 5th. 5. K’s Kt. to his 5th. 5. K’s Kt. to R’s 3d. (best.) 6. Kt. takes K. B’s P. 6. Kt. takes Kt. 7. B. takes Kt. (ch.) 7. K. takes B. 8. Q. to R’s 5th. 8. P. to K. Kt.’s 3d. 9. Q. takes B. 9. P. to Q’s 4th. Black’s 9th move was first suggested in an able analysis on this variation by Messrs. Jaenisch and Schummoff, in the “Chess Player’s Chronicle” for July, 1850. It is far superior to the old move of P. to Q’s 3d, and without great care on your part will give him an irresistible attack. 10. Castles. 10. P. takes P. This is your strongest move, and appears to have been overlooked by the talented authors of the article in question:— 10. P. to Q. B’s 3d. (best.) 10. R. to K’s sq. If Black play 10. P. to Q’s 6th, you reply with Q. to Q. B’s 4th (ch.), winning the King’s Pawn. 11. B. to K. Kt.’s 5th. 11. Q. to Q’s 3d. 12. Q. takes Q. 12. P. takes Q. 13. P. takes P. 13. Kt. takes P. 14. Q’s Kt. to B’s 3d. And Black will have great difficulty in avoiding the loss of a Pawn. There is another variation of this opening hitherto, we believe, unanalysed, which, although it presents many points of interest, seems altogether unknown to the majority of amateurs.
  • 47. WHITE. BLACK. 1. P. to K’s 4th. 1. P. to K’s 4th. 2. K’s Kt. to B’s 3d. 2. Q’s Kt. to B’s 3d. 3. P. to Q’s 4th. 3. P. takes P. 4. B. to Q. B’s 4th. 4. B. to Q. B’s 4th. 5. Castles. 5. P. to Q’s 3d. 6. K’s Kt. to his 5th. 6. K’s Kt. to R’s 3d. 7. P. to K. B’s 4th. 7. P. to Q’s 6th. (dis. ch.) If he play 7. B. to K. Kt.’s 5th, your best reply seems to be Q. to K’s sq., although you might obtain a strong but hazardous attack by playing Q. to her 3d, and afterwards, on his attacking her, with Q’s Kt. to Q. Kt.’s 3d. 8. K. to R’s sq. 8. P. takes P. 9. Q. takes P. 9. Q’s Kt. to Q’s 5th. 10. Q. to Q. B’s 3d. And although minus a Pawn, you have a fine game. If he now play P. to K. B’s 3d, you reply with B. to K’s 3d. THE KING’S BISHOP’S OPENING. WHITE. BLACK. 1. P. to K’s 4th. 1. P. to K’s 4th. 2. K. B. to Q. B’s 4th. 2. K. B. to Q. B’s 4th. By this move you attack his weakest point, viz. the K. B’s P. Most of the classical writers on Chess concur in recommending the same move as Black’s best reply. Major Jaenisch and the German authors unanimously recommend 2. K’s Kt. to B’s 3d in preference, the move generally adopted in actual play. (See Game III.) White has now several methods of continuing the attack. He may play the move recommended by Philidor, viz. P. to Q. B’s 3d, to which
  • 48. Black may reply with either K’s Kt. to B’s 3d, or Q. to K. Kt.’s 4th, or P. to Q’s 4th, in every case with at least an equal game. You may also play K’s Kt. to B’s 3d, and upon Black’s bringing out his Q’s Kt., the position is resolved into the Giuoco Piano. If you play Q. to K. R’s 5th, (a move frequently adopted by young players,) Black will reply with Q. to K B’s 3d, or to K’s 2d, with no inferiority of position. Besides these moves you have two others at command, viz. Q. to K’s 2d, and P. to Q. Kt.’s 4th, which we will proceed to examine. Game I.—The Lopez Gambit. WHITE. BLACK. 1. P. to K’s 4th. 1. P. to K’s 4th. 2. K. B. to Q. B’s 4th. 2. K. B to Q. B’s 4th. 3. Q. to K’s 2d. 3. Q’s Kt. to B’s 3d. By playing thus you threaten at once to take his K. B’s P. (ch.), and if K. takes B, to win his Bishop in return by the check of the Q. The move in the text is Black’s best reply, any other move would leave you with at least an even position. 4. P. to Q. B’s 3d. 4. K’s Kt. to B’s 3d. Instead of P. to Q. B’s 3d, you may take the adverse K. B’s P (ch.); see Variation A. 5. P. to K. B’s 4th. 5. B. takes K’s Kt. 6. R. takes B. 6. Castles. 7. P. to Q’s 3d. 7. P. to Q’s 4th. With a superior game. Variation A. on White’s 4th Move. WHITE. BLACK. 4. B. takes K. B’s P. (ch.) 4. K. takes B.
  • 49. 5. Q. to Q. B’s 4th. (ch.) 5. P. to Q’s 4th. 6. Q. takes B. 6. P. takes K’s P. 7. Q. to Q. B’s 4th (ch.) 7. B. to K’s 3d. 8. Q. takes P. 8. K’s Kt. to B’s 3d. Black has by far the better game. Game II.—The Double Gambit. WHITE. BLACK. 1. P. to K’s 4th. 1. P. to K’s 4th. 2. K’s B. to Q. B’s 4th. 2. K’s B. to Q. B’s 4th. 3. P. to Q. Kt.’s 4th. 3. B. takes P. 4. P. to K. B’s 4th. 4. P. to Q’s 4th. His best move. If, in lieu of P. to Q’s 4th, he adopt P. takes K. B’s P., you reply with K’s Kt. to B’s 3d, and obtain a fine attack. 5. P. takes Q’s P. 5. P. to K’s 5th. If you play B. takes P., Black replies with P. to Q. B’s 3d, with the better game. 6. K’s Kt. to K’s 2d. 6. K’s Kt. to B’s 3d. 7. Castles. 7. Castles. 8. Q’s Kt. to B’s 3d. 8. P. to Q. B’s 3d. 9. P. takes P. 9. Q’s Kt. takes P. Black has the better game, thereby proving that the Double Gambit, if correctly met, is disadvantageous to the first player. Game III. WHITE. BLACK. 1. P. to K’s 4th. 1. P. to K’s 4th. 2. K’s B. to Q. B’s 4th. 2. K’s Kt. to B’s 3d. 3. K’s Kt. to B’s 3d. 3. Kt. takes K’s P. (best.)
  • 50. Your third move is probably the best on the board; 3. P. to Q’s 4th, and 3. P. to Q’s 3d, seem much inferior, as Black immediately gains the attack. 4. Q’s Kt. to B’s 3d. 4. K’s Kt. to B’s 3d. Your fourth move was introduced two or three years ago, and was first analysed by Mr. Boden, in his “Popular Introduction,” where Black’s reply, of 4. K’s Kt. to B’s 3d, is recommended as his best; we believe, however, he can at least as advantageously play 4. Kt. takes Q’s Kt., or, as has been suggested to us, 4. P. to Q’s 4th.; see Variation A. 5. Kt. takes K’s P. 5. P. to Q’s 4th. 6. B. to Q. Kt.’s 3d. 6. B. to Q’s 3d. Equal game. Variation A. on Black’s 4th Move. WHITE. BLACK. 4. Kt. takes Q’s Kt. 5. Q’s P. takes Kt. 5. P. to Q. B’s 3d. He may also play 5. P. to K. B’s 3d, by which he preserves his Pawn, though with a somewhat inferior position. 6. Kt. takes K’s P. 6. P. to Q’s 4th. 7. B. to Q’s 3d. 7. B. to Q’s 3d. 8. K’s Kt. to B’s 3d. 8. Castles. 9. Castles. Black has no inferiority of position. THE KING’S GAMBIT. Game I.
  • 51. This beautiful and brilliant début, which, as Mr. Staunton observes, gives birth to the most intricate and beautiful combinations the chess-men are susceptible of, has been a universal favourite with every class of players from the earliest stages of European Chess up to the present day. In order to facilitate the analysis of this opening, as far as our narrow limits will permit, we shall divide it into its three principal heads; viz., The King’s Knight’s Gambit, The Allgaier Gambit, and the King’s Bishop’s Gambit, and afterwards devote a few words to the Gambit Declined. WHITE. BLACK. 1. P. to K’s 4th. 1. P. to K’s 4th. 2. P. to K. B’s 4th. 2. P. takes P. 3. K’s Kt. to B’s 3d. 3. P. to K. Kt.’s 4th. This is Black’s best move, indeed the only one to retain the gambit pawn. He, however, may obtain a nearly equal game by 3. P. to Q,’s 4th. If he play 3. B. to K’s 2d, commonly known as the Cunningham Gambit, White replies with B. to Q. B’s 4th, and on Black’s checking with B. at R’s 5th, plays K. to B’s sq., with a much better game. 4. B. to Q. B’s 4th. 4. B. to K. Kt.’s 2d (best), or Var. A. 5. P. to Q B’s 3d. 5. P. to K. R’s 3d. (best.) Should Black play the obvious-looking move of 4. P. to Q’s 3d, White gains a striking advantage by the following mode of play:— 6. Q. to Q. Kt.’s 3d. 6. Q. to K’s 2d. 7. Q. to Q. Kt.’s 5th. (ch.) 7. B. on P. interposes. 8. Q. takes K. Kt.’s P., &c. 6. P. to Q’s 4th. 6. P. to Q’s 3d. 7. Castles. 7. Q’s Kt. to Q’s 2d. This is usually considered his best move, though Q’s Kt. to B’s 3d, or K’s Kt. to K’s 2d, are perhaps equally good.
  • 52. 8. P. to K. Kt.’s 3d. 8. P. to K. Kt.’s 5th. If he takes P. with P., you get a fine attack by B. takes K. B’s P. (ch.) 9. Kt. to K. R’s 4th, (or to K’s sq.) 9. Kt. to Q. Kt.’s 3d. 10. B. to Q. Kt.’s 3d. 10. P. to K. B’s 6th. He has a Pawn more, and a strong position. N.B.—Instead of 5. P. to Q. B’s 3d, you may also play 5. P. to K. R’s 4th, with a good attack. The Salvio Gambit. Variation A. on Black’s 4th Move. WHITE. BLACK. 1. P. to K’s 4th. 1. P. to K’s 4th. 2. P. to K. B’s 4th. 2. P. takes P. 3. K’s Kt. to B’s 3d. 3. P. to K. Kt.’s 4th. 4. B. to Q. B’s 4th. 4. P. to K. Kt.’s 5th. 5. Kt. to K’s 5th. 5. Q. to K. R’s 5th. (ch.) Instead of 5. Kt. to K’s 5th, you may castle, for which see Game II. (The Muzio Gambit.) 6. K. to B’s sq. 6. K’s Kt. to R’s 3d. 7. P. to Q’s 4th. 7. P. to K. B’s 6th. 8. P. takes P. 8. P. to Q’s 3d. 9. B. takes K’s Kt. 9. Q’s P. takes Kt. And Black has a fine Game. You seem to have no better move than 9. B. takes K’s Kt.; if you play Kt. to Q’s 3d, he replies with K. Kt.’s P. takes P., and your game is gone.
  • 53. Game II.—The Muzio Gambit. WHITE. BLACK. 1. P. to K’s 4th. 1. P. to K’s 4th. 2. P. to B’s 4th. 2. P. takes P. 3. K’s Kt. to B’s 3d. 3. P. to K. Kt.’s 4th. 4. B. to Q. B’s 4th. 4. P. to K. Kt.’s 5th. 5. Castles. 5. P. takes Kt. This sacrifice of the Kt., daring as it may appear at first sight, is, nevertheless, considered by modern analysis to be quite sound. 6. Q. takes P. 6. Q. to K. B’s 3d. (best.) 7. P. to K’s 5th. 7. Q. takes K’s P. Your 7th move is given by most of “the books” as the best. We have found Q’s Kt. to B’s 3d at this point a strong move in actual play. 8. P. to Q’s 3d. 8. K’s B. to R’s 3d. 9. Q’s B. to Q’s 2d. 9. K’s Kt. to K’s 2d. 10. Q’s Kt. to B’s 3d. 10. P. to Q. B’s 3d. Some authors recommend Q’s Kt. to B’s 3d as more attacking than the move in the text. It has however been proved untenable in the “Handbook” (page 281.) 11. Q’s R. to K’s sq. 11. Q. to Q. B’s 4th. (ch.) 12. K. to R’s sq. 12. P. to Q’s 4th. Mr. Staunton recommends 12. R. to K. B’s 2d, instead of retiring the King to R’s sq. We have tried this move in actual play, following it up with Q’s R. to K. B’s sq., which seems to give White an overwhelming attack. 13. Q. to K. R’s 5th. 13. Q. to Q’s 3d. 14. B. takes Q. P. 14. P. takes B. 15. Kt. takes Q’s P. 15. Q’s Kt. to B’s 3d.
  • 54. 16. Q’s B. to his 3d. 16. Q. to K. Kt.’s 3d. 17. R. takes Kt. (ch.) 17. K. to B’s sq. The moves up to this point, both for attack and defence, are given by Jaenisch and the “Handbook” as the best the board affords; with the best play, probably the game ought to be drawn. We much regret that our space will not allow of a more elaborate analysis of this beautiful gambit; we trust, however, that the above variations will show the young player the difficulty and resource of this opening. We cannot quit the subject without alluding to a defence lately introduced by Messrs. Kling and Horwitz, which consists in Black’s playing Q. to K’s 2d at his 5th move, instead of taking the Kt. With all deference and respect for the wonderful and almost inexhaustible power of analysis displayed by these two eminent players, we must confess that we have our doubts as to the soundness of the move in question. The young players, however, will find it full analysed in Kling and Horwitz’s “Chess Studies,” one of the most valuable and interesting works on Chess of modern days, which needs not our recommendation to find its way to the book-shelf of every lover of Chess. Game I.—The Allgaier Gambit. This opening, the invention of which is erroneously ascribed to Allgaier, has of late years become a favourite with all classes of players, though we agree with Mr. Boden in considering that its resources have been considerably overrated, although not perhaps from the same reason as adduced in his “Popular Introduction.” WHITE. BLACK. 1. P. to K’s 4th. 1. P. to K’s 4th. 2. P. to K. B’s 4th. 2. P. takes P. 3. K’s Kt. to B’s 3d. 3. P. to K. Kt.’s 4th. 4. P. to K. R’s 4th. 4. P. to K. Kt.’s 5th.
  • 55. You may here play your Kt. to K’s 5th, or to K. Kt.’s 5th. Modern authorities agree in recommending the former, as giving a more lasting attack. As, however, some very embarrassing positions may arise from playing the Kt. to his 5th, we will examine the consequences resulting from it at present, leaving the move of 5. Kt. to K’s 5th for after examination, (Game II.). 5. Kt. to Kt.’s 5th. 5. P. to K. R’s 3d. (best.) 6. Kt. takes K. B’s P. 6. K. takes Kt. 7. B. to Q. B’s 4th. (ch.) 7. P. to Q’s 4th. Your 7th move gives a far more embarrassing attack than the old move of Q. takes K. Kt.’s P., to which Black replies, K’s Kt. to B’s 3d. with a winning position. In the present game Black’s reply of P. to Q’s 4th is his only move. If he retire K. to Kt.’s sq., you must gain some advantage by Q. takes K. Kt.’s P., &c. 8. B. takes P. (ch.) 8. K. to K’s sq. In our opinion the move of K. to K’s sq. is preferable to K. to Kt.’s 2d. At all events the defence seems much simpler, and at least as satisfactory. 9. P. to Q’s 4th. 9. P. to K. B’s 6th. (best.) 10. P. takes P. 10. B. to K’s 2d. With a winning game. Game II. WHITE. BLACK. 1. P. to K’s 4th. 1. P. to K’s 4th. 2. P. to K. B’s 4th. 2. P. takes P. 3. K. Kt.’s to B’s 3d. 3. P. to K. Kt.’s 4th. 4. P. to K. R’s 4th. 4. P. to K. Kt.’s 5th. 6. Kt. to K’s 5th. 5. P. to K. R’s 4th.
  • 56. Black’s 5th move has been recommended by almost all the authorities as the correct reply; although the moves 5. P. to Q’s 3d; 5. B. to K’s 2d; or 5. K’s Kt. to B’s 3d, seem, to say the least, equally advantageous for the second player. 6. B. to Q. B’s 4th. 6. Kt. to K. R’s 3d. 7. P. to Q’s 4th. 7. P. to K. B’s 6th. 8. P. takes P. (best.) 8. P. to Q’s 3d. 9. Kt. to Q’s 3d. 9. B. to K’s 2d. 10. B. to K’s 3d. This is the move given by the “books;” B. to K. B’s 4th, however, appears at least as good. 10. B. takes K. R’s P. (ch.) 11. K. to Q’s 2d. 11. P. takes P. 12. Q. takes P. 12. B. to K. Kt.’s 5th. 13. Q. to K. B’s 4th. 13. Q’s Kt. to B’s 3d. One of the advantages of the move 10. B. to K. B’s 4th, as suggested above, seems to be that the White Q. could not be played to K’s 3d, instead of the more assailable part of K. B’s 4th. 14. Q’s Kt. to B’s 3d. And the game, in spite of the formidable appearance of the adverse Bishops, seems in White’s favour, from the disposition of his forces, so well calculated for a vigorous assault. N.B.—It would be very unadvisable for Black to reply to White’s move of Kt. to Q. B’s 3d. with Kt. takes Q’s P. 14. Kt. takes Q’s P. 15. B. takes Kt. 15. B. to K. Kt.’s 4th. 16. B. takes K’s R. 16. B. takes Q. (ch.) 17. Kt. takes B.
  • 57. And White has a more than ample equivalent for his lost Queen, and a considerable superiority of position. Game I.—The Bishop’s Gambit. WHITE. BLACK. 1. P. to K’s 4th. 1. P. to K’s 4th. 2. P. to K. B’s 4th. 2. P. takes P. 3. B. to Q. B’s 4th. 3. Q. to K. R’s 5th. (ch.) Black’s 3d move is the one generally recommended at this point. He has, however, the option of several other moves, the most important of which seems to be P. to Q’s 4th. (See Game II.) 4. K. to B’s sq. 4. P. to K. Kt.’s 4th. (best.) If Black, instead of the move in the text, play B. to Q. B’s 4th, a move frequently adopted by young players, you reply with P. to Q.’s 4th and K’s Kt. to B’s 3d, with a fine position. 5. Q’s Kt. to B’s 3d. 5. B. to K. Kt.’s 2d. (best.) 6. P. to Q’s 4th. 6. P. to Q’s 3d. 7. K’s Kt. to B’s 3d. 7. Q. to K. R’s 4th. 8. P. to K. R’s 4th. 8. P. to K. R’s 3d. 9. P. to K’s 5th. 9. P. takes P. Major Jaenisch, to whom we owe almost all our knowledge of this fine opening, at one time we believe recommended 9. B. to K. Kt.’s 5th for Black, instead of P. takes P., but has we believe qualified his opinion in favour of the move in the text. 10. Q’s Kt. to Q’s 5th. 10. K. to Q’s sq. 11. P. takes P. 11. B. to Q’s 2d. 12. K. to Kt.’s sq. 12. Q. to K. Kt.’s 3d. 13. P. takes P. 13. P. takes P. 14. R. takes R. 14. B. takes R.
  • 58. 15. K’s Kt. takes P. 15. Q. takes K’s Kt. This sacrifice is the invention of Petroff, the great Russian master; and without the greatest care in the defence, will give you an overpowering attack. 16. Q’s B. takes P. 16. Q. to K. Kt.’s 3d. (best.) 17. P. to K’s 6th. 17. P. takes P. 18. Kt. takes Q. B’s P. 18. P. to K’s 4th. 19. Kt. to K’s 6th. (ch.) Game II. WHITE. BLACK. 1. P. to K’s 4th. 1. P. to K’s 4th. 2. P. to K. B’s 4th. 2. P. takes P. 3. B. to Q. B’s 4th. 3. P. to Q’s 4th. We would recommend this defence to the young player, (especially when receiving the odds of a piece,) as it leads at once to at least an even game, and avoids an intricate and difficult series of moves, the least error in which would be fatal. 4. B. takes P. 4. K’s Kt. to B’s 3d. 5. Q. to K’s 2d. 5. Kt. takes B. This is probably your best move, though Kt. to Q. B’s 3d, may be played without danger. 6. P. takes Kt. (dis. ch.) 6. B. to K’s 2d. 7. Q. to K. B’s 3d. (best.) 7. B. to K. R’s 5th. (ch.) 8. P. to K. Kt’s 3d. 8. P. takes P. 9. P. takes P. 9. B. to K. Kt.’s 4th. 10. Q’s Kt. to B’s 3d. The game is about even.
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