Dr. Ismael Fofana_AGRODEP Annual Conference
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The document describes the Africa Agricultural Trade Outlook Portal (AfTOP) which will provide analysis and data on African agricultural trade. AfTOP will have 4 components: 1) global trade outlook, 2) regional trade outlook, 3) Africa Agricultural Trade Monitor, and 4) ex-ante assessment of the African Continental Free Trade Area agreement. The portal will be launched at the 2023 AGRODEP Annual Conference in Kigali, Rwanda from March 21-23, 2023 to help stakeholders respond to disruptions in global and regional food systems from health crises, conflicts, and climate change.
Dr. Ismael Fofana_AGRODEP Annual Conference
- 1. www.akademiya2063.org Africa Agricultural Trade Outlook Portal (AfTOP) 2023 AGRODEP Annual Conference ‘Building Resilient African Food Systems amid Health, Conflict and Climate Disruptions’ Kigali, Rwanda | 21-23 March 2023 By Ismael FOFANA AKADEMIYA2063 Director, Capacity & Deployment
- 2. www.akademiya2063.org Africa Agricultural Trade Outlook Portal (AfTOP) 2023 AGRODEP Annual Conference ‘Building Resilient African Food Systems amid Health, Conflict and Climate Disruptions’ Kigali, Rwanda | 21-23 March 2023 INTRODUCTION
- 3. www.akademiya2063.org Rational Serious disruptions of global food security through agricultural and food trade and markets Russia-Ukraine war COVID-19 pandemic Climate-related shocks Objective Support stakeholders with access to timely and high-quality data and analytics to guide responses to current and future trade related shocks.
- 4. www.akademiya2063.org Centralized, user-friendly and interactive online platform that brings high-quality information on African trade of agricultural and food commodities on four main components: Global trade outlook focusing on developments in global trade and markets Regional trade outlook focusing on dynamics in regional trade and markets Africa Agricultural Trade Monitor (AATM) on current trade performance and issues African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) agreement on implementation issues What is AfTOP?
- 5. www.akademiya2063.org Contribution of AfTOP? Provide on a regular basis outlooks of global commodity markets conditions and implications on African economies. Guide decision making and responses to external trade shocks. Facilitate access to data and resources related to key trade policy interventions. Facilitate private-sector partnerships and business transaction across countries and value chains by providing relevant information.
- 6. www.akademiya2063.org AKADEMIYA2063 Past Experiences on Trade Analytics The Africa Agricultural Trade Monitor (AATM), a flagship publication of AKADEMIYA2063 and the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). AKADEMIYA2063’s COVID-19 portal, a broad data, analytics and communications agenda on the impacts of and responses to the COVID-19 pandemic among African countries. AKADEMIYA2063’s Assessment of the Impact of Ukraine Crisis on African Economies, Analysis of the effects of global market disruptions on country terms of trade, growth and employment, and poverty and food security effects.
- 7. www.akademiya2063.org Africa Agricultural Trade Outlook Portal (AfTOP) 2023 AGRODEP Annual Conference ‘Building Resilient African Food Systems amid Health, Conflict and Climate Disruptions’ Kigali, Rwanda | 21-23 March 2023 AfTOP COMPONENTS
- 8. www.akademiya2063.org Component 1 - Global Trade Outlook Purpose Assess the implications of global primary commodity price shocks in Africa and estimate their ramifications for the broader economy Tasks Provide price outlook of primary commodities Assess the socio-economic impact of global price changes Tools Machine learning technique to forecast the prices of primary commodity Single-country CGE models for economy-wide assessment Micro-Simulation (MS) models for income inequality and poverty assessment Outputs Price forecast for 46 to 68 primary commodities Macro effects, i.e. ToT, real exchange rate, GDP, Employment, etc. Micro effects, i.e. income distribution and inequality, and poverty reduction
- 9. www.akademiya2063.org Component 2 - Regional Trade Outlook Purpose Identify critical factors, challenges and opportunities that drive regional agri-food sector competitiveness Identify priority value chains with potential to be competitive and to drive regional and national economic growth Tasks Assess the trade performance and competitiveness of regional agricultural value chains Evaluate the long-term regional trade outlook and identify priority agricultural value chain Tools Descriptive analysis of regional and overall agricultural trade and evaluate the trade performance and competitiveness using a series of specific indicators Regional trade model to explore how supply and demand trends would shape long term regional agricultural trade competitiveness and performance Macro-Micro model to capture the overall economic impact of regional agricultural trade expansion Outputs Trade performance and competitiveness long-term outlook for intra-regional trade of agri-food products Prioritization of agri-food value chains at country and regional levels
- 10. www.akademiya2063.org Component 3 - Africa Agricultural Trade Monitor (AATM) Purpose Provide a user-friendly digital interface of the AATM publications Tasks Design the web-based layout of the AATM Report Create interactive, engaging content to disseminate the AATM flagship Outputs AATM publications publicly available on the portal Rich content stream to promote the AATM and redirect visitors to the portal
- 11. www.akademiya2063.org Component 4 - Ex-ante Assessment of the AfCFTA Agreement Purpose Estimate the potential for agri-food trade under the AfCFTA agreement implementation Identify agricultural value chains with the highest competitive potential for each country Assess the socioeconomic impact of the AfCFTA agreement implementation Tasks Measure the ad valorem equivalent of non-tariff barriers Assess the trade expansion implications of tariff and non-tariff barriers removal Evaluate the economic impacts of tariff and non-tariff barriers removal Tools Gravity model to evaluate the ad valorem equivalent of non-tariff barriers Economywide Multi-Market (EMM) model to assess the trade expansion implications Regional Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) models to measure the economic impact Outputs Provide an ex-ante impact assessment of the AfCFTA agreement implementation Monitor the ex-post impact assessment of the AfCFTA agreement implementation
- 12. www.akademiya2063.org Timeline (12 months) Key expertise 2023 Key Personnel Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Research and Analysis Component 1. Global trade outlook A2063 research staff • Senior Scientist, Trade & Economy-wide modeling • Senior Associate Scientist, Trade & Economy-wide modeling • Senior Scientist, Trade & Data Analysis • Senior Associate Scientist, Trade & Data Analysis AGRODEP Members • AGRODEP AfCFTA Network • AGRODEP trade modeling group Activity 1.1 Activity 1.2 Component 2. Regional Trade Outlook Activity 2.1 Activity 2.2 Component 3. Africa Agricultural Trade Monitor Activity 3.1 Activity 3.2 Component 4. AfCFTA implementation Activity 4.1 Activity 4.2 AfTOP Portal Research and Analysis • A2063 research staff • Data-Centric Web Applications Manager • Information Systems and Spatial Data Specialist • Communication team Tasks: Meetings to discuss features, types of visualization, update frequency, data format, periodicity, and disaggregation Design Tasks: Branding, features, technology selection, content structure, wireframing Development Testing and quality assurance: Test to eliminate any bugs, check functionality, usability, and performance Deployment Capabilities and Implementation Timeframe
- 13. www.akademiya2063.org Africa Agricultural Trade Outlook Portal (AfTOP) 2023 AGRODEP Annual Conference ‘Building Resilient African Food Systems amid Health, Conflict and Climate Disruptions’ Kigali, Rwanda | 21-23 March 2023 THANK YOU MERCI