Economic Development in Custer County

Economic Development in Custer County

• 1.
  Where we arenow and how we get to where we want to be? Ethan Mansfield SW Idaho Regional Economist Idaho Department of Labor Economic Development in Custer County
• 2.
  Outline • What DoesCuster County Look like now? • What is it projected to look like in the future? • What are the Economic Development policy changes going forward that might affect the county’s position in the future?
• 3.
  Source: EMSI 9.5 5.0 9.7 3.9 10 5.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 2007 20082009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Unemployment Rates Custer County, Idaho and United States 2007-2015 Custer Idaho US
• 4.
  Jobs and Wages •Population = 4,087 • Idaho = 1,654,930 • Total Jobs = 1,830 • Idaho = 765,509 • Average Wage per Job = $31,127 • Idaho = $36,781 • 2010-2016 Job Growth = -103 • Idaho = 107,139 • 2010-2015 Percent Job Growth = -5% • Idaho = 14%
• 5.
  Description 2016 Jobs 2010- 2016 Change 2010 - 2016 % Change Current Wages, Salaries, & Proprietor Earnings Ind. Mix Effect Nat'l Growth Effect Competitive Effect 2016 Location Quotient Government (incl. Public Ed) 448 (41) (8%) $33,608 (54) 48 (35) 1.59 Accommodation and Food Services 304 70 30% $16,397 21 23 26 1.96 Retail Trade 200 12 6% $16,094 (2) 18 (5) 1.05 Crop and Animal Production 125 30 32% $32,819 (5) 9 27 5.65 Health Care and Social Assistance 112 38 51% $17,589 4 7 27 0.49 Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation 101 47 87% $24,297 3 5 39 3.28 Construction 89 (22) (20%) $30,969 4 11 (37) 0.90 Other Services (except Public Administration) 80 27 51% $14,327 (4) 5 26 0.92 Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction 67 (297) (82%) $142,738 (23) 36 (309) 8.43 Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services 56 7 14% $43,362 4 5 (1) 0.48 Administrative and Support and Waste Management and Remediation Services 49 13 36% $40,011 4 4 5 0.43 Information 48 16 50% $41,983 (2) 3 15 1.41 Manufacturing 28 13 87% $18,674 (0) 1 12 0.19 Wholesale Trade 28 3 12% $34,998 (0) 2 1 0.40 Utilities 25 (7) (22%) $74,850 (2) 3 (8) 3.83 Transportation and Warehousing 23 (1) (4%) $27,202 2 2 (5) 0.38 Finance and Insurance 22 (2) (8%) $32,715 (1) 2 (4) 0.31 Real Estate and Rental and Leasing 18 (15) (45%) $16,041 (1) 3 (18) 0.60 Management of Companies and Enterprises <10 Insf. Data Insf. Data Insf. Data 0 0 2 0.13 Private Educational Services <10 Insf. Data Insf. Data Insf. Data 0 0 3 0.07
• 8.
  -5.2 4.3 3.3 -6 -4 -20 2 4 6 Custer County, Idaho Idaho UNITED STATES Percent Population Change 2010-2014
• 9.
  23.8 14.3 14.5 0 5 10 15 20 25 Custer County,Idaho Idaho UNITED STATES Percent over 65 years old 2014
• 10.
  27.3% 15.3% 11.5% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% Custer County, IdahoIdaho UNITED STATES Change in Percent 65 and Older 2014
• 11.
  $1,076 $1,212 $1,522 $0 $200 $400 $600 $800 $1,000 $1,200 $1,400 $1,600 Custer County, IdahoIdaho UNITED STATES Median Monthly Costs Housing Units with a Mortgage
• 12.
  $539 $738 $920 $0 $100 $200 $300 $400 $500 $600 $700 $800 $900 $1,000 Custer County, IdahoIdaho UNITED STATES Median Monthly Rent 2014
• 13.
  0 20000 40000 60000 80000 100000 120000 140000 2015 2016 20172018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2025 Projected Job Growth* Ages 16-64 Workforce Growth** Workforce Gap 115,000* 52,000** 63,000 * 2015-2025 Extrapolated from 2012-2022, 1.5% annualized long term projection growth, Idaho Department of Labor, November 2015 ** Workforce growth extrapolated from 1.6% annualized population growth, Idaho Department of Labor, November 2015
• 14.
  -400 -300 -200 -100 0 100 200 300 400 500 2015 2016 20172018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2025 Projected Job Growth* Ages 16-64 Workforce Growth** Workforce Gap 430* -310** 740
• 15.
  -17% -14% 42% -7% 7% 37% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 0-14 15-64 65+ ProjectedGrowth By Age Group 2015- 2025 Custer County Idaho
• 16.
  NAICS Description 2015 -2025 Change 2015 - 2025 % Change 72 Accommodation and Food Services 112 42% 44 Retail Trade 76 40% 71 Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation 61 84% 62 Health Care and Social Assistance 51 49% 51 Information 50 119% 81 Other Services (except Public Administration) 43 58% 11 Crop and Animal Production 39 32% 90 Government (incl. Public Ed) 24 5% 54 Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services 22 42% 56 Administrative and Support and Waste Management and Remediation Services 19 45% 53 Real Estate and Rental and Leasing 16 94% 31 Manufacturing 12 48% 42 Wholesale Trade 11 44% 52 Finance and Insurance 1 5% 48 Transportation and Warehousing 0 0% 22 Utilities (3) (11%) 23 Construction (12) (13%) 21 Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction Insf. Data Insf. Data 55 Management of Companies and Enterprises Insf. Data Insf. Data 61 Private Educational Services Insf. Data Insf. Data 430 25%TOTAL
• 17.
  What Factors Contributeto Unequal Economic Development across Space? • Natural Amenities • Cultural Amenities • Human Capital (Workforce) • Infrastructure • Jobs follow people vs. people follow jobs? • More support for jobs follow people in rural areas • Tax Policy?
• 18.
  How Can weHelp? • Attract and Retain Talented Workers (or any workers) • Choose Idaho campaign • Local Policy that encourages workers to stay and attracts new ones (i.e. what does your target audience want in a community?) • Create Talent Pipelines within the community • Amenities Matter to Migration • What does a new generation look for? • Infrastructure is important • Physical Infrastructure • Roads, Railways, Air Service • Virtual Infrastructure • Broadband
• 19.
  Thank You! • EthanMansfield • [email protected] • Sources: Economic Modeling Specialists International; US Census Bureau, County Quickfacts; Idaho Department of Labor, Population Projections.