Food Security Situation in East and Southern Africa

FOOD SECURITY
SITUATION IN THE
COMESA REGION
16th September, 2013
Addis Ababa
Presentation by
Chris Manyamba & Sheryl Hendriks
Institute for Food, Nutrition and Well
Being, University of Pretoria
COMESA FIFTH JOINT TECHNICAL COMMITTEE ON AGRICULTURE,
ENVIRONMENT AND NATURAL RESOURCES MEETING

Introduction-food security defined
1996 World Food Summit defined food security as:
• When “all people, at all times, have physical and economic access
to sufficient, safe and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs
and food preferences for an active healthy life”
This implies:
• Production of enough food
• Access, acquisition and entitlement to purchase food
• That food is safe to consume
• Utilisation is efficient
• Preferences and cultural prohibitions are met
Absence of these elements leads to food insecurity

Introduction
• Food security and nutrition are
high on the political agenda at the
global, regional and national
levels.
• Global agenda: Group of 20 and
(G-20); Rio+20, G8
• Continental: Comprehensive
Africa Agriculture Programme
(CAADP)
• National: Policies and strategies
• 870 million -undernourished in the
period 2010–12.
• 852 million in developing countries,
children ~15% of the population).
• 200 million children are stunted

Background
• Food Security-priority policy issue
in all COMESA member states.
• Chapter 18 of the COMESA Treaty
(1994).
• Recently, human rights approach
by a number of governments-1948
UN Declaration of Human Rights
• COMESA region –marred with
poor development indicators
(ReSAKSS, 2013)
– Poverty Rates
• 34% (Southern)
• 37% (Eastern )
– AgGDP growth
• 4.2 % (Eastern Africa)
• 4.6% (Southern Africa)
• Hunger is still a threat in
COMESA
– Most countries’ intake is less than the
recommended Amount of 2100
calories/day (RESAKSS-ECA, 2011).
• CAADP Framework for African Food
Security (FAFS) –helping African
countries reach a higher path of
economic growth through
agriculture-led development
– Pillar 3. Increase Food Supply, Reduce
Hunger and Improve Responses to
Food Emergency Crises

Progress towards
Millennium Development
Goal 1
Target already met or
expected to be met by
2015 or prevalence
<5%
Progress insufficient to
reach the target if
prevailing trends
persist
No progress or
deterioration
Missing or insufficient
data
Not assessed

Food Balance Sheet-total cereals (as of June 2013)
…..significant uncovered deficit in most member states.
0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1
Zimbabwe
Zambia
Uganda
Tanzania
Swaziland
Sudan
Rwanda
Mauritius
Malawi
Madagascar
Kenya
Ethiopia
Eritrea
DRC
Djibouti
Comoros
Burundi
Domestic Availability Import Requirement
Source: Own Calculations from FAOSTAT 2013.

Estimated Numbers-Food Insecure (2012)
……..a large proportion of the population remain food insecure
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5
Sudan
Ethiopia
South Sudan (not yet COMESA…
Somalia (non COMESA member)
Kenya
Burundi
Zimbabwe
Malawi
Mozambique (Non COMESA member)
Swaziland
Zambia
4.6
3.2
2.8
2.51
2.4
1.7
1.67
1.63
0.26
0.115
0.062
Population in millions
Estimated No. of Food Insecure Persons-2012

Prevalence of under nutrition in children under the age of five years (%)
Decreasing child mortality and improving maternal health depend heavily on reducing
malnutrition, which is responsible, directly or indirectly.
Source of data: Measure DHS. ICF International, 2012. MEASURE DHS,
WHO (2013)
UNDERWEIGHT
Low weight for age
• Any protein-energy malnutrition
• reflect the long-term health and
nutritional experience of the child
• Influenced by both
– the height of the child
(height-for-age)
– and his or her weight
(weight-for-height)
STUNTING
• Low height for age,
• Chronic malnutrition
• Effects on children
– delayed motor
development,
– impaired cognitive
function
– poor school performance.
WASTING
• Very low weight for
height
• Severe acute
malnutrition
• visible severe wasting
• Predictor of child
mortality

28.8
57.7
5.8
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Underweight Stunting Wasting
Percentage
Burundi DHS-2010
25.1
45.5
10
0
10
20
30
40
50
Percentage
DRC DHS-2007
19.5
48.3
8.3
17.5
51.1
4.7
11.4
44.2
2.8
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Percentage
Rwanda DHS
2000 2005 2010
18.4
44.8
4.9
15.9
38.1
6.1
13.8
33.4
4.7
0
10
20
30
40
50
Percentage
Uganda DHS
2000-01 2006 2011
Source: Own Calculations Measure DHS data

15.8
35.7
6
16.1
35.3
6.7
0
10
20
30
40
Percentage
Kenya DHS
2003 2008-09
41.2
57.7
12.2
32.9
50.8
12.2
28.7
44.4
9.7
0
20
40
60
80
Percentage
Ethiopia DHS
2000 2005 2011
33.8
42.9
14.9
0
10
20
30
40
50
Percentage
Eritrea DHS-2002
3.7
23.4
3
5
22.9
4.86
28.9
7.2
0
10
20
30
40
Percentage
Egypt DHS
2000 2005 2008

22.5
52.5
6
14.6
45.4
5.2
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Percentage
Zambia DHS
2001-02 2007
10.3
33.6
7.5
13.2
34.6
6.9
9.7
32
3
0
10
20
30
40
Percentage
Zimbabwe DHS
1999 2005-06 2010-11
20.3
54.6
6.617.3
52.5
6
12.8
47.1
4
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Percentage
Malawi DHS
2000 2004 2010
5.4
28.9
2.5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Percentage
Swaziland DHS-2006-7

48
58
33
0
20
40
60
80
Percentage
Sudan 2006
8
32
10
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Percentage
Libya 2007
45
53
42
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Percentage
Djibouti 2006
3.7
23.4
3
5
22.9
4.86
28.9
7.2
0
10
20
30
40
Percentage
Egypt DHS
2000 2005 2008

6 6
2
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Percentage
Seychelles 1987-88
17
13
18
0
5
10
15
20
Percentage
Mauritius 1995
36.2
53.2
14.6
50.1
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Percentage
Madagascar DHS
2003-04 2008-09

General Outlook -2013
East Africa
• Staple food prices generally
followed their seasonal trends in
July.
• Sorghum prices increased atypically
in parts of Sudan and Ethiopia due
to the recent late start of season in
key surplus-producing areas.
• Maize prices were stable or
decreased in Tanzania and Uganda,
and increased in Rwanda.
Africa wide
• Most countries have recorded
higher numbers of acutely food
insecure populations
• ………..a much wider geographic
distribution of affected areas
compared to the past three years.
• Estimate- 7.70 million people in the
region (excluding the DRC) are at
risk of food insecurity.
Southern Africa
• Drought in parts of southern Africa
has reduced maize production and
contributed to very high prices
• Minimal food insecurity outcomes
to prevail in the region
Source: FEWSNET, 2013
Generally…

Southern Africa
• Malawi: Stressed food insecurity
in localized areas
• Zimbabwe: High food prices
affect food insecurity
• Maize grain and meal prices
continued to increase atypically in
parts of Zambia and Malawi
• Madagascar: Prices will increase
faster than usual during the lean
season
.
• Burundi: Improved food access for
poor households during the post-
harvest period
• Djibouti: Improvements in acute
food security likely
• Kenya: Food security deteriorating
in the Southeast
• Rwanda: Household food stocks
rapidly deplete
• South Sudan: Near-average
national harvests remain likely
• Sudan: Expectations for near-
average harvest remain
• Uganda: Green harvest to mitigate
food insecurity
East Africa
Specific Country Outlook
….. as of July 2013

Source: FEWS NET/NOAA, FEWS NET, Dartmouth Flood Observatory
Most-likely food security outcomes, October to December, 2013
…………………..Pockets of acute food insecurity in areas that experienced reduced
harvests

Factors Likely to Impact on the Food Security Situation
Policy factors
– investment levels,
– import and export bans,
– market infrastructure level
– production incentives; acce
finance;
Political and security factors
– as evidenced in the case o
eastern part of the
DemocRepublic of Congo
Agronomic factors
– -rainfall levels (weather
conditions),
– crop varieties being adopte
– post harvest management
practices,
– pests and disease outbreaks
Market factors
– input consumption (determ
market prices and
– Output market prices,
– Market access,
– Market information

Cereals production in member states have increased over the past
decade……with decreasing trends in some member states
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
Percentchange
Cereal production-% change
1990-1995 1996-2000 2001-2005 2005-2012
Actual yields for the main food crops (maize, rice, millet and sorghum) are well
below what could be achieved in many regions……..

-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
Percentchange
Cereal production-% change
1990-1995 1996-2000 2001-2005 2005-2012
….per capita production decreasing

Rapid population growth in member states , may outstrip cereal production…………..
y = 1E+07x + 2E+08
R² = 0.9628
y = 0.8486x + 140.4
R² = 0.7457
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Percapitaproduction
PopulationinMillions
Per capita cereal production-COMESA
Total population COMESA per capita Cereal Production
Linear (Total population COMESA) Linear (per capita Cereal Production)

Food prices continue to rise in the Southern, Eastern and West Africa
Regions……….
• International rice
prices remained stable
or decreased in July.
• Maize prices
decreased
considerably with
improved harvest
prospects in the
United States.
• Wheat prices have
continued to decrease
due to improving
growing conditions
and harvest
projections. Crude oil
prices were stable.
• Source: FEWSNET, 2013

The food insecurity situation in the COMESA region is further demonstrated
by the changes in the food prices in the member states………..
Southern Africa East Africa

Conclusions
• Serious shortages in cereals (less than 70% shortfall) in 10 COMESA countries
(Food Balance Sheets, 2013)
• Around 20.9 million (see slide 7) people food insecure in the 11 countries (for
which recent data is available) and 7.7M at risk of food insecurity (see slide 14)
• Progress towards MDG1 insufficient in a significant number of countries (slide 6)
• Drought and high inflation and localised conflict threaten food security in COMESA
countries.
• Cereal per capita production is decreasing while population is increasing and
outstripping supply. This has a direct impact in availability of food at household
level
• High prevalence levels of malnourishment among children under-five years of age
remain a public health problem in the COMESA region.
– Childhood stunting is over 40% countries and more than 30% in 12 countries
(slides 8 – 12).
– Wasting places under-five children at substantial increased risk of severe
acute malnutrition and death

Food Security Challenges Food Security Solutions
Inadequate food crisis
management at all levels
Reduced risk and improved
resilience
Inadequate food supply and
marketing systems
Increased supply of affordable
food
Lack of income opportunities Increased incomes for the poor
Hunger, malnutrition and poor
diet quality
Improved nutrition
Pillar 3: Food Security

Recommendations
• Agricultural growth is particularly effective in reducing hunger and
malnutrition.
• Comprehensive national food security strategies are urgently
needed and need to include:
– Programmes to increase food supply are urgently needed to provide for a
growing population
– Improving resilience of the food systems is essential
– Programmes to improve children’s nutrition are urgently needed – Scaling Up
Nutrition Programmes play an important role.
• Promoting infrastructure development and harmonized policies
– free flow of food staples from surplus to deficit areas driven primarily by price incentives
and market forces.
• Encourage and support women in agriculture (production inputs,
access to markets, credit, extension services etc.)

Thank You
Christopher Manyamba
Researcher: Institute for Food, Nutrition and Well-being,
University of Pretoria, South Africa
Prof Sheryl Hendriks
Director: Institute for Food, Nutrition and Well-being,
University of Pretoria, South Africa

Food Security Situation in East and Southern Africa

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