Global Environmental Crisis: Future Challenges for the Transport and Logistics Profession
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The document discusses the significant environmental impacts of transportation, including air pollution and carbon emissions, which contribute to numerous health issues and deaths globally. It highlights the urgent need for the logistics sector to adopt decarbonization strategies, including shifting to lower carbon transport modes, optimizing vehicle capacity, and increasing energy efficiency. The report underscores the challenges in achieving net zero emissions by 2050 while emphasizing the importance of collaboration and the implementation of effective mitigation measures.
Global Environmental Crisis: Future Challenges for the Transport and Logistics Profession
- 1. Global Environmental Crisis: Future Challenges for the Transport and Logistics Profession Professor Alan McKinnon Kühne Logistics University Hamburg Green Series Webinar CILT International 26 May 2021
- 2. Environmental Impacts of Transport NOx CO2
- 3. PM 2.5 / nano-particles: expanding list of serious health impacts Concentrations of PM2.5 pollution in major cities Atmospheric Pollution World Health Organisation (2018) PM2.5 + Ozone pollution from transport (2015): 385,000 deaths 7.8 million years of life lost $1 trillion cost https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ab35fc
- 4. Source: IEA (2017) Future of the Truck Tightening of Exhaust Emission Standards NOx PM Heavy duty vehicle emission standard (2020) Source: UNEP https://bit.ly/3vgYoFJ IMO global limit on sulphur emissions from shipping from 1 January 2020 ‘by not reducing the SOx limit for ships from 2020, the air pollution from ships would contribute to more than 570,000 additional premature deaths worldwide between 2020-2025 ’ (IMO, 2020). % sulphur content in marine fuel Sulphur Emission Control Areas Global https://bit.ly/3fDKdne
- 5. LOCAL Health & air quality REGIONAL Acidification photochemical GLOBAL Greenhouse -indirect Greenhouse - direct Effect PM HM NH3 SO2 NOx NMVOC CO CH4 CO2 N2O Different Forms of Air Pollution PM - Particulates HM - Heavy metals NH3 - Ammonia SO2 - Sulphur dioxide NOx - Oxides of nitrogen NMVOC - Volatile organic compounds (hydrocarbons) CO - Carbon monoxide CH4 - Methane CO - Carbon dioxide N2O - Nitrous oxide Source: UK Transport Research Laboratory
- 6. Scale and Urgency of the Climate Emergency Carbon capture and storage Bio-energy carbon capture and storage Reafforestation Direct air capture Geo-engineering sequestering GHG’s in atmosphere Net Zero credible goal or policy trap? Risk that it merely prolongs business-as-usual CO2 reductions required to have a two-thirds chance of staying within 1.5oC carbon budget worldwide extreme weather events 120 countries, 2360 businesses and 708 cities committed to be net zero emissions by 2050 or earlier (May 2021) https://bit.ly/3f6svtD Need to stay with 1.5oC rise between 1850 and 2100. Already 1.2oC above 1850 average temperature https://bit.ly/33Cg3Lu https://bit.ly/3oRROTr (JP Morgan cited in Wall Street Journal 17 Jan 2020) https://go.nature.com/3vsn91M
- 7. 2015 2015 2050 2050 all transport freight transport +22% +16% -70% -72% current policies Reshape+ scenario Transport CO2 emission trends 2015-2050 source: International Transport Forum 2021 Over 150 Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) statements ‘highlighted transport-related mitigation ‘only 13 NDCs communicated targets, policies or measures that directly address freight’ Freight responsible for 42% of transport CO2 emissions freight transport CO2 emissions by mode https://bit.ly/3bQJIFw https://bit.ly/3fQ42YE
- 8. projected reduction in carbon intensity of road freight transport Global variations in growth of road freight emissions and decarbonisation rates 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 2015 2030 2050 OECD non-OECD tonnes CO2 per vehicle-km projected increase in CO2 emissions from road freight transport 0.0002 0.0003 0.0004 0.0005 0.0006 0.0007 0.0008 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Africa North America EU27 Latin America China Middle East India current ambition scenarios for 2030 and 2050 Main growth of road freight emissions in regions with slower rates of decarbonisation https://bit.ly/31slD2p
- 9. hard sector to decarbonise Almost total dependence on fossil fuel High forecast growth of freight movement: 2.6x growth in tonne-kms 2015-2020 (ITF 2021) Five Sets of Freight Decarbonisation Options 1. Reduce the Total Amount of Freight Movement 5. Cut the Carbon Content of Freight Transport Energy 2. Shift Freight to Lower Carbon Transport Modes 3. Optimise the Utilisation of Vehicle Capacity 4. Increase the Energy Efficiency of Freight Transport avoid shift improve Decarbonising Freight Transport https://bit.ly/3fQ42YE https://bit.ly/37O2B8D
- 10. Source: Malo, 2017 Future freight traffic growth sectors carbon capture and storage population resettlement climate change adaptation air conditioning / cold chain 1. Reduce the Amount of Freight Movement restructure supply chains • reshore / near-shore manufacturing • localize sourcing • decentralize production & inventory Circular economy: Increase recycling and remanufacturing Digitisation of physical products: convert freight consignments into electrons Design products with less material: miniaturisation, lightweighting 3D Printing: less material used, simplified supply chains Share economy: Ownership to multiple useage negative emissions renewable energy infrastructure phasing out fossil fuel – 30% of tonne-kms in 2020 Reduce the amount stuff to be moved
- 11. average carbon intensity of freight transport modes: gCO2 / tonne-km 2. Shift Freight to Lower Carbon Transport Modes strategic intermodal corridors synchromodal scheduling • difficult to reverse long term decline in railfreight share • decline in rail’s fossil fuel traffic – difficult to replace • road-rail carbon intensity gap narrowing • Benefits from network electrification – direct transmission of low carbon electricity 4 16 25 51 78 210 612 1128 2198 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 BULKCARRIER VESSEL CONTAINER SHIP FREIGHT TRAIN ROLL-ON ROLL-OFF FERRY ARTICULATED TRUCK RIGID TRUCK VAN AIRFREIGHT LONG-HAUL AIRFREIGHT SHORT-HAUL source: DBEIS / DEFRA 2020 Integrating modal choice into production planning and inventory management most cost-effective methods of decarbonising logistics Survey of 92 logistics executives https://www.the-klu.org/landingpages/sustainability-study/ https://bit.ly/3wxImr4 https://bit.ly/3fkYI0j
- 12. under-loading over-loading EU (2018) 20% (Eurostat) US (2016) 21% (ATRI) Latin America 30-50% (IDB) empty running 12 online procurement High capacity transport Logistical collaboration Relaxation of JIT ? ways of raising vehicle load factors 3. Optimise the Utilisation of Vehicle Capacity Lack of statistics to monitor trends in vehicle utilisation and assess potential CO2 savings large potential CO2 savings low or negative carbon mitigation costs short-medium term implementation intelligent vehicles Digitalisation
- 13. changes to business practice: e.g. deceleration fuel economy standards: applied to trucks and ships EEDI ship efficiency ratings vehicle operation: IT , training, monitoring eco-driver training telematic monitoring platooning automation fuel savings from slow steaming Wider case for supply chain deceleration ? 4. Increase the Energy Efficiency of Freight Movement uptake of new technologies -15% -30% 57 48 40 penalties per vehicle sold for non- compliance per gCO2 / tkm 2025-2029 €4250 post 2030 €6800 2019 2025 2030 EU fuel / CO2 standards for new trucks enhanced vehicle maintenance longer term short term trucking retrofitting fuel saving devices shipping https://bit.ly/2AW0un9
- 14. 5. Cut the Carbon Content of Freight Transport Energy short haul road long haul road rail shipping airfreight battery battery catenary ammonia biofuel hydrogen hydrogen battery methanol synfuel catenary hydrogen hydrogen hydrogen biogas battery battery synfuel wind low carbon energy options van truck locomotive ship plane 5-7 10-15 25-30 30 30 typical life-spans (years) uncertainty disagreement lobbying slow transition to low carbon fleets coordinating the development of transport and energy infrastructures with the manufacture of new low carbon vehicles and operators’ fleet replacement cycles. International variation in carbon intensity of electricity generation Source: International Energy Agency (2019) wide global variations in carbon intensity of grid electricity and rates at which it is declining Competition between freight transport and other activities for available supplies of low carbon energy Source: International Energy Agency (2019) 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 2010 2018 2040 2040 -10% -32% Stated Policies Sustainable Development scenario gCO2 / kWh Carbon intensity of electricity generation global average
- 15. Electrification of Road Freight Transport • increasing delivery range • narrowing price differential • expanding recharging network local delivery operations long distance trucking battery power battery power hydrogen fuel-cell truck Cost of lithium ion battery pack $ per kilowatt-hour Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 800 400 5. Reduce the Carbon Content of Freight Transport Energy capital cost required network and traffic density co-ordination of infrastructure development and truck manufacturing? issues Over 250 mile range electric truck achieves weight parity with diesel. Over 300-500 miles weight penalty is 3.5% or less 400 kW/h recharging speeds accelerating 900 kW/h fast charge for 400 km range in 30 minutes • long range • rapid refuelling • limited payload weight penalty • availability and affordability of green hydrogen? • 70% energy loss in green hydrogen supply chain https://bit.ly/2TwmjPU
- 16. Slow Diffusion of Low Carbon Powertrain Technology into Less Developed Countries? surge in exports of used ICE trucks as Europe and North America switch to low carbon vehicles depresses price of ICE trucks in LDCs– discouraging to switch low carbon vehicles longer life of low carbon trucks will delay their export as used vehicles to LDCs little incentive in LDCs to prepare infrastructure for low carbon trucks scarcity of materials and reliance on recycling will discourage export of used batteries and fuel cells transformation of global market and supply chain in used trucks?
- 17. Developing a Decarbonisation Strategy for Transport and Logistics Collaborate with others Consider possible options 10 C approach Corporate motivation Calculate emissions Commit to targets Cost evaluation Choose appropriate actions Calibrate the strategy Cut emissions Carbon offset https://bit.ly/332rxrf https://bit.ly/3bLieRF https://bit.ly/37O2B8D
- 18. Decarbonisation-related change management Skill requirements for the management of transport / logistics decarbonisation Appreciation of the climate science Understanding of GHG emission processes in transport Auditing of transport GHG emissions Deriving emission reduction targets Keeping abreast of advances in CO2-reducing technology Economic analysis of decarbonisation options Complying with government climate action Source: Figueres et al, Nature June 2017 50% chance of staying within budget GHG reductions Financial impact net cost increase net cost reduction GHG abatement potential Marginal Abatement Cost (MAC) Analysis ‘low hanging fruit’ Securing green finance
- 19. Center for Sustainable Logistics and Supply Chains Kühne Logistics University – the KLU Wissenschaftliche Hochschule für Logistik und Unternehmensführung Grosser Grasbrook 17 20457 Hamburg tel.: +49 40 328707-271 fax: +49 40 328707-109 e-mail: [email protected] website: www.the-klu.org www.alanmckinnon.co.uk Professor Alan McKinnon @alancmckinnon