H2 Gambling Capital_gaming-in-holland_stats
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This document summarizes Simon Holliday's presentation on onshore interactive gambling in the Netherlands. The key points are: 1) The global interactive gambling market continues to grow steadily at around 8% annually, reaching €26.5 billion in 2013. Onshore markets now account for 40% of revenues and are expected to reach 52% by 2018. 2) The EU gambling market reached €11.6 billion in 2013. Fully regulated onshore markets in several countries are capturing more revenue, totaling €2 billion in 2013. 3) The offshore Dutch interactive gambling market is currently worth around €225 million annually but the onshore market resulting from regulation could range from €150-300 million depending on
H2 Gambling Capital_gaming-in-holland_stats
- 1. Onshore Interac-ve Gambling in the Netherlands Simon Holliday H2 Gambling Capital Gaming in Holland Amsterdam 23 June 2014 www.h2gc.com
- 2. AGENDA • Interac-ve Gambling Market Update • EU28 Market Trends • Dot Country Markets -‐ Recent Performance • Current NL Gambling Market • Dot NL Expecta-ons / Changes
- 3. Interac-ve Gambling Market Update • Con-nued Overall Strong Growth • Dot Com Markets • Developing Regions • Product Innova-on • Mobile Channel • Weaker Performance • Onshore Regulated Markets • Poker • 2013 Globally Interac-ve Gambling Up 7.8% to €26.5bn • Current Year a Further 13% of Growth to €30.0bn • Globally 8.3% of Gross Gambling Revenues are Now Interac-ve (8.9% 14 /10.2% 18) • Highest in the Nordics where mid-‐30%'s • UK mid-‐to High 20%'s • Southern Europe s-ll Low to Mid-‐Single Digit • Dutch Market Currently 11% -‐ Onshore Regula-on by 2018 14% (20% Gross Win Tax) to 18% (10% Gross Win Tax) • Onshore Ac-vity Accounted for 40% of Global Interac-ve Revenues 2013 / Expected to be 52% by 2018 • Low Point Just Under 30% in 2006
- 4. EU28 Market Trends • All Gambling €11.6bn Gross Win 2013 -‐ 14% of Total with 41% Onshore • 14.2% Growth Expected in Current Year • Bebng and Gaming Only €10.1bn -‐ 20% of Total with 33% Onshore • 12.5% Growth Expected in the Current Year • UK -‐ Largest European Market €2.96bn (bebng and gaming only) 29% of the Total European Market • Just 18% Onshore (Going Forward PoC to Capture Taxa-on for the Treasury) • 6 Fully Compe--ve Markets Up and Running with Bebng and Gaming Gross Wins Totalling €2bn in 2013 • Another €1.3bn in Monopoly Markets or Those Restricted to Land Licensees • A Number of Other Markets Expected 2014-‐15
- 5. EU Dot Country Markets -‐ Recent Performance • Current Year Expec-ng 7.9% Dot Country Mkt a Growth vs EU28 Average 14.9% • Lower GDP Growth • Total Value Onshore Bebng and Gaming Ac-vity Approaching €2.1bn • Offshore Ac-vity Sta-c c€900m • Overall Ini-al Market Upside Expected Upon Onshore Regula-on • Combined On and Offshore Will Grow the Market – Amount will Depend on Tax Rate / Any Other Restric-ons • New Onshore Market Will Not Surpass the Size of Previous Offshore Market at 20% Gross Win Tax (Closer to 15% to Achieve this) • Channelling – Average c70% • Can Vary From Less than 50% (Highest Tax / Lack of Product Ver-cals / No Interna-onal Pooling) • To 85% • Op-mal Likely to be 95-‐97% • Structural Restric-ons on Growth Beyond Market Launch • Where Applicable Domes-c Liquidity Bigger Factor / Cri-cal Mass to Develop Momentum • Predominantly the Same Operators Moving Onshore / Development of Local Monopolies' Offer • Ini-al Land-‐grabs -‐ Market Sehles Operators Cau-ous as Paying Tax on Bonuses which can be as High as 20% in Dot Com Gaming • Affiliates Opera-ons
- 6. Current NL Gambling Market • Netherlands 15th Largest Gambling Market in the World (7th Largest in the World • Average Gross Win per Adult €164 (25th World/ 14th EU28) – EU28 Average €193 • % of GDP Accounted for by Gambling c0.40% (EU28 Average c0.65%) 0.0# 0.5# 1.0# 1.5# 2.0# 2.5# 2003# 2004# 2005# 2006# 2007# 2008# 2009# 2010# 2011# 2012# 2013# Land# Interac6ve# Be#ng& 4%& Gaming& 52%& Lo1eries& 44%& NL Total Gambling Gross Win (€bn)"NL Gross Win by Product" Be#ng& 14%& Gaming& 48%& Lo1eries& 38%& EU Gross Win by Product" EU Total Gambling Gross Win (€bn)" 0" 10" 20" 30" 40" 50" 60" 70" 80" 90" 2003" 2004" 2005" 2006" 2007" 2008" 2009" 2010" 2011" 2012" 2013" Land" Interac5ve"
- 7. Dot NL Expecta-ons – On Going Changes • Changes to Our Approach / Key Drivers • IMF GDP Forecasts • Evolu-on of Benchmark Markets • Adjustments in the Mix of Benchmark Markets • Allowance for any Change of Pace in Current Marke-ng • Changes in Regula-on / More Detailed Assessment of the Exact Similari-es / Differences with the Dot DK Regula-on
- 8. Dot NL Expecta-ons • Currently An-cipated that the Offshore Dutch Market will be Worth c€225m in the Current Year • With a 20% Gross Win Tax • Onshore Bebng and Gaming Ac-vity First Full Year Could Range From c€150m (29% GWT) to c€300m (10% GWT) • Ini-al Bebng and Gaming Channelling Could Vary from 60% to 90% • Latest Update of Model / Start Date • Execu-ve Market Report 0" 50" 100" 150" 200" 250" 300" 350" 400" 2013" 2014e" 2015e" 2016e" 2017e" 2018e" Onshore" Offshore" Be#ng& 47%& Casino& 32%& Poker& 11%& Bingo/ Other& 10%& NL Interactive Gambling Gross Win (€m)" NL Interactive Gambling Gross Win by Product"
- 9. Further Details: Simon Holliday H2 Gambling Capital [email protected] www.h2gc.com H2 Annual Gambling Data & Market Intelligence Subscrip:on Service Online Access for Unlimited Users within an Organisa5on to Over 250 Datasets, Reports and Updates with c1,000 New and Updated Pos5ngs Expected in the Coming 12 Months Including Netherlands Updated Dataset / Execu5ve Market Report(Slide Deck Format) in July