What You Need To Know About The Year Ahead In Africa And The Middle East - IHS White Paper
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The IHS white paper outlines significant political events and trends anticipated in Africa and the Middle East for 2013, including several elections and ongoing conflicts. Key areas of concern include the instability in Mali, rising violence in the Democratic Republic of Congo, and political tensions in Zimbabwe and Côte d'Ivoire. The paper also highlights the geopolitical challenges related to Iran's nuclear program and its potential implications for regional security.
What You Need To Know About The Year Ahead In Africa And The Middle East - IHS White Paper
- 1. What You Need To Know About The Year Ahead In Africa & The Middle East International affairs always hold the potential to surprise, but despite the myriad permutations that surround this volatile region there are firm, fixed events – elections, military exercises, international conferences – and ongoing strategic trends and pressures that provide a static framework around which events are likely to unfold. This IHS white paper sketches out the themes, issues and potential flashpoints that could come to define 2013 in this part of the world.
- 2. The Year Ahead In Africa & The Middle East IHS White Paper Sub-Saharan Africa Country Election Type Date Risk of Unrest / Disputed Result Sub-Saharan Africa witnessed a divergence of fortunes in 2012. To Democratic widespread surprise, Mali imploded, with Islamist groups joining Provincial, Republic of February / June High separatist Tuaregs in an assault that left them in complete control of the Senatorial, Local Congo northern half of the country when an army coup deposed President Amadou Toumani Touré. The Democratic Republic of Congo also suffered Ethiopia Presidential October Low a resurgence of violence in the conflict-prone east of the country. Kenya General March High More positively, the Alassane Outtara-led government in Côte d'Ivoire Presidential / made commendable progress in putting the Ivorian economy back on Madagascar 8 May / 3 July High Legislative track after civil unrest in 2011, while Somalia's security and political Mozambique Municipal TBC Low to Moderate environment showed some improvement. Rwanda Parliamentary September Low to Moderate Somalia Swaziland National Assembly TBC Low to Moderate The situation in Somalia may gradually be stabilising. A permanent, elected government was formed to replace the internationally backed Zimbabwe General TBC High Transitional Federal Government (TFG); and the Somali government, backed by its regional allies, scored major battlefield successes against Elections 2013: Sub-Saharan Africa the Shabab Islamist militant group. However, for all the progress achieved organisation will be required even after the force arrives in Mali to in 2012, stability in the coming year will depend on such issues as the prepare for an offensive against battle-hardened opponents. formation of new federal states and a possible counter-offensive by the Shabab, with the insurgents increasingly likely to adopt guerrilla-style Democratic Republic of Congo tactics. The Democratic Republic of Congo's security situation deteriorated Mali further in 2012 amid the emergence of the rebellion in the east of the country by army mutineers calling themselves the Mouvement du 23 The focus in Mali in 2013 will be an attempt to recapture the northern Mars (M23) and formed from remnants of the rebel CNDP. Gains made by half of the country that is currently held by Islamist groups largely the M23 rebels during the course of 2012 have demonstrated the affiliated to Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM). A plan has been national armed forces' limited capacity, while there have also been fresh formulated by the regional Economic Community of West African States accusations, including from the United Nations, that neighbouring (ECOWAS) to send 3,300 troops to assist the demoralised Malian army, Rwanda has been supporting the rebels. Rwanda has denied the supplemented by logistical support and training from European Union allegations, but it has undermined a 2009 rapprochement between the countries. Realistic estimates suggest that many months of training and 3 4
- 3. The Year Ahead In Africa & The Middle East IHS White Paper two countries, and prospects for stabilising the volatile east of the DRC remain tense amid fears of ethnic unrest and potential attacks by continue to look poor. Somalia's Shabab or its local sympathisers. Nigeria Madagascar Nigeria is no closer to finding a solution to the Islamist Boko Haram Madagascar, which has been suffering from a political crisis since the insurgent group. The group has continued to mount attacks with relative forced resignation of president Marc Ravalomanana in March 2009, is impunity, despite government offensives, and Nigerian security forces planning to hold a long-awaited presidential election on 8 May with a run- have been accused by human rights organisations and local residents of off, if needed, scheduled for 3 July, when legislative polls are also due. brutality and extra-judicial executions. This appears to have destroyed for However, the elections remain mired in uncertainty, which would ensure the time being any hope of a negotiated settlement, and significant levels further political tensions and holds the risk of fresh incidents of military of conflict are set to continue in 2013. unrest. Côte d'Ivoire Mozambique It is not surprising that the political and security situation in Côte d'Ivoire Mozambique will hold municipal elections, which may provide an early remains fraught following civil conflict in the first half of 2011, but there is indicator of potentially changing political allegiances ahead of general a lingering danger that reconciliation and economic recovery could be elections in 2014. The ruling Mozambique Liberation Front (Frente de derailed. Loyalists of deposed president Laurent Gbabgo remain Libertação de Moçambique: Frelimo) is still expected to triumph at the alienated, and attacks on security targets that started in August 2012 are next presidential and parliamentary elections in 2014, but needs to likely to continue into 2013, possibly derailing improved economic growth choose a new presidential flag-bearer. and the return of significant foreign direct investment. Tanzania Kenya The future of the half-century-old union between largely secular Kenya will hold its much-awaited general elections in March 2013, the Tanganika (mainland Tanzania – as it is commonly known) and the first national ballot to take place in the country since the controversial Zanzibar islands will come under renewed scrutiny in 2013, amid growing 2007 poll that led to the deaths of approximately 1,300 people and the calls for independence from Zanzibar's predominantly Muslim population. displacement of thousands of others. The upcoming polls will be held Although Zanzibar is currently governed by a power-sharing under a constitution drawn up in August 2010; in a tense race, Prime administration made up of the two main parties on the islands - designed Minister Raila Odinga remains the favourite for the presidency, with to keep growing independence calls and differences with the mainland at Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta his most likely challenger. bay - the growing popularity of a Muslim separatist group suggests that However, with Kenyatta set to appear in front of the International the island could witness more disturbances throughout 2013. Criminal Court (ICC) in April to answer charges in connection with the 2007 disturbances, the build-up and the aftermath of the ballot is likely to 5 6
- 4. The Year Ahead In Africa & The Middle East IHS White Paper Zimbabwe Risk of Unrest / Country Election Type Date Disputed Result Parties in Zimbabwe are eyeing presidential and parliamentary elections in 2013 and President Robert Mugabe has suggested that these could be Egypt Parliamentary TBC Low to Moderate held in March. However, before the election date can realistically be Iran Presidential 14 June Low to Moderate confirmed, the protracted constitution-making process must be completed, including taking the new draft law before a referendum vote. Israel Parliamentary 22 January Low The eventual election period is likely to prove volatile, with the risk of a recurrence of incidents of political intimidation and violence. Jordan Parliamentary 23 January Low to Moderate Ethiopia, Togo and Guinea-Bissau Lebanon Parliamentary TBC Low to Moderate The sudden death in office in August 2012 of Ethiopia's long-ruling Prime Libya Parliamentary TBC Low to Moderate Minister Meles Zenawi appears to have caused major political turmoil in Qatar Legislative TBC Low the country, from which it will only begin to emerge in 2013. The pressure is mounting on Togo's President Faure Gnassingbé, who has failed to Tunisia Parliamentary 23 June Low to Moderate keep a lid on unrest in the same way as his father Gnassingbé Eyadéma managed for 38 years until 2005, and in coup-wracked Guinea-Bissau Elections 2013: Middle East & North Africa optimism is not high that 2013 will be any better than the instability of Israel and Iran 2012. The issue of Iran looks set to cast a shadow over much of 2013. It will Middle East & North Africa certainly dominate the Israeli election campaign throughout January, after which the newly elected Israeli government is expected to further Across the Middle East and North Africa, 2012 witnessed the painful increase the rhetorical and diplomatic pressure for military action against hangover from the euphoria of the Arab Spring of 2011. The hard task of Iran. rebuilding and reconstituting political systems, badly shaken by the Indeed, 2013 is widely seen within Israel as the year in which a decision events and high expectations of the previous 12 months, produced must be made over whether Iran's nuclear programme can be dealt with frustration and disillusionment in Egypt, persistent weak central peacefully or through military means. Any resort to force would have government in Libya, and civil war in Syria. strategic geo-political implications for the region and the West, especially The entrenchment or establishment of democracy or the maintenance of Israel's closest political and military ally, the US. monarchical stability remains the key challenge facing states from If incumbent Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu wins another term in Morocco to Yemen. Moreover, against a backdrop of civil war in Syria, office, the pressure for a military strike may become unavoidable by the sectarian tensions in Lebanon, ongoing concern over Iran's nuclear middle of the year. However, the US and vital parts of the Israeli military programme, and a resurgence of the Israel-Palestinian conflict, regional tensions show little sign of abating at any time during 2013. 7 8
- 5. The Year Ahead In Africa & The Middle East IHS White Paper establishment remain to be convinced, and it may be that Israel is President Mohamed Morsi's assumption of sweeping powers in late persuaded to await the outcome of the Iranian presidential election in November 2012 potentially sullies the prospects for democratic June. governance; moreover, Egypt will continue the reconstitution of its new, uncertain foreign policy under Morsi. Although that result is a foregone conclusion in the sense that the winner will be a man picked by Supreme Leader Ali Sayyed Khamenei, domestic How this new policy responds to Israel's attitude towards the Palestinians opposition and unrest may again shake the stability of the political system and a potential Israeli attack on Iran could be a key determinant of as it did after the last election in 2009, perhaps exposing new regional stability in 2013. vulnerabilities in Iran that necessitate a retreat from the military option Lebanon for Israel. Either way, the issue is likely to take precedence over any attempt to re-energise the peace process with the Palestinians. Lebanon will go to the polls in 2013 in elections that, despite expectations to the contrary, are unlikely to calm the sectarian forces unleashed by the Syria civil conflict in neighbouring Syria. Indeed, anger at Hizbullah's perceived The slow-burning civil war in Syria looks set to continue throughout at role in assisting the Syrian regime against the opposition may sharpen least the early part of the year as neither side appears able to gain the and exacerbate the political divisions in the country. upper hand. Opposition forces remain a significant threat to the regime of Meanwhile, Beirut will continue to try to keep itself out of the fighting in President Bashar al-Assad, and the regime remains unable to defeat their Syria, despite the fact that violent clashes between armed pro- and anti- combined might. Syrian groups will flare throughout the year. A lessening of tensions in In the absence of meaningful diplomatic and military intervention on Lebanon will only come with a resolution to the conflict in Syria - either side, this situation will persist throughout 2013. The West will something not expected any time soon. continue to debate the wisdom of intervention, either explicitly on the side of the opposition or in a supposed humanitarian capacity, at the Conclusion same time as demanding greater credibility, legitimacy, and clarity about The single most important situation to monitor in 2013 will be the stand- Syria's future. off relating to Iran’s nuclear programme. By mid-2013 it will become clear Egypt whether a military strike by Israel and/or the United States will take place that has the potential to spark a wider regional conflagration of largely Egypt will continue to grapple with its seemingly tortuous political unpredictable consequences. transition process. The new constitution, which was due for discussion at the end of 2012 to pave the way for new parliamentary elections in 2013, The Middle East more widely looks likely to be the dominant generator of is a key democratic milestone. Disputes are expected over the status of news headlines in the coming year, with any worsening of the situation in sharia (Islamic law), the relative strengths of the country's new political Syria invariably threatening to drag in Western military powers, and institutions, safeguards for freedoms of the press and expression, and progress on the issue of the Palestinian Territories likely to remain guarantees over the role of minorities (Coptic Christians) and women. underwhelming. 9 10
- 6. The Year Ahead In Africa & The Middle East IHS White Paper About IHS About IHS Defence & Security IHS (NYSE: IHS) is a leading source of information and insight in pivotal With over 100 years of history as Jane’s, IHS is the most trusted and areas that shape today’s business landscape: energy, economics, respected public source of defence and security information in the world. geopolitical risk, sustainability and supply chain management. With a reputation built on products such as IHS Jane’s Fighting Ships, IHS Businesses and governments around the globe rely on the comprehensive Jane’s All the World’s Aircraft and IHS Jane’s Defence Weekly, IHS delivers content, expert independent analysis and flexible delivery methods of IHS comprehensive, credible and reliable news, insight and analysis across all to make high-impact decisions and develop strategies with speed and key defence and security subject areas in support of critical processes. confidence. IHS military capabilities and country risk analysis products represent an IHS has been in business since 1959 and became a publicly traded invaluable open-source news, information and intelligence asset for company on the New York Stock Exchange in 2005. Headquartered in organisations that want to understand the current and future Englewood, Colorado, USA, IHS employs more than 6,000 people in more international military and security landscape. than 31 countries around the world. ihs.com Military Capabilities and Country Risk IHS Jane’s Military & Security Assessments Intelligence Centre Terrorism and Insurgency Intelligence IHS Jane’s Terrorism & Insurgency Centre 11 12