Impact of climate change on agriculture and food A Lecture by Mr Allah Dad Khan Visiting professor the University of Agriculture Peshawar Pakistan
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The document addresses the impacts of climate change on agriculture and food security, highlighting a potential rise in global temperatures that threatens crop yields and food access. It discusses how extreme weather events and long-term climate changes can destabilize food security by affecting availability, access, utilization, and stability of food systems. Additionally, the document outlines recommendations for adapting agricultural practices and policies to mitigate climate change effects and improve resilience in food production.
Impact of climate change on agriculture and food A Lecture by Mr Allah Dad Khan Visiting professor the University of Agriculture Peshawar Pakistan
- 2. Climate Change and its Impacts on Agriculture and Food Security A Presentation By Mr. Allah dad Khan Visiting Professor the University of Agriculture Peshawar [email protected]
- 3. Climate Changes Global Over View 3
- 4. Climate Change Many evidences are showing the world’s climate is changing, and the changes will have an enormous impact on people, ecosystems, and energy use. According to the latest report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), average global temperature is likely to rise by another 2 to 8.6 degrees F by 2100. Higher temperatures will have an impact on yields while changes in rainfall could affect both crop quality and quantity. Food access: Climate change could increase the prices of major crops in some regions. For the most vulnerable people, lower agriculturaloutput means lower incomes 4
- 5. Climate change and food security Climate change will affect all four dimensions of food security: food availability, food accessibility, food utilization and food systems stability. It will have an impact on human health, livelihood assets, food production and distribution channels, as well as changing purchasing power and market flows. Its impacts will be both short term, resulting from more frequent and more intense extreme weather events, and long term, caused by changing temperatures and precipitation patterns, 5
- 6. Increasing The Risk Of Hunger Extreme weather events Climate change increases the frequency and intensity of some disasters such as droughts, floods and storms. This has an adverse impact on livelihoods and food security. Climate-related disasters have the potential to destroy crops, critical infrastructure, and key community assets, therefore deteriorating livelihoods and exacerbating poverty. Long-term and gradual climate risks Sea-level will rise as a result of climate change, affecting livelihoods in coastal areas and river deltas. Accelerated glacial melt will also affect the quantity and reliability of water available and change patterns of flooding and drought 6
- 7. Food Security And Nutrition Food availability: Changes in climatic conditions have already affected the production of some staple crops, and future climate change threatens to exacerbate this. Higher temperatures will have an impact on yields while changes in rainfall could affect both crop quality and quantity. Food access: Climate change could increase the prices of major crops in some regions. For the most vulnerable people, lower agricultural output means lower incomes. Under these conditions, the poorest people — who already use most of their income on food — sacrifice additional income and other assets to meet their nutritional requirements, or resort to poor coping strategies. 7
- 8. Food Security And Nutrition Food utilization: Climate-related risks affect calorie intake, particularly in areas where chronic food insecurity is already a significant problem. Changing climatic conditions could also create a vicious cycle of disease and hunger. Nutrition is likely to be affected by climate change through related impacts on food security, dietary diversity, care practices and health. Food stability: The climatic variability produced by more frequent and intense weather events can upset the stability of individuals’ and government food security strategies, creating fluctuations in food availability, access and utilization. 8
- 9. Climate Impacts on Food Security During the last two decades, 200 million have been lifted out of hunger and the prevalence of chronic malnutrition in children has decreased from 40 to 26 percent. In spite of this progress, according to the World Bank, 702 million people still live in extreme poverty and, according to this year's report on the State of Food Insecurity in the World (SOFI), 793 million people are undernourished 9
- 10. Climate Change links between Agriculture and Food Security 1. Climate change is generated by emissions of greenhouse gases that in turn are largely dependent on fossil energy use (mainly coal and oil) and by methane and nitrous oxide emissions from agriculture; 2.Food production, distribution and consumption depend strongly on fossil fuel energy consumption; high oil prices affect costs of production, processing, transport, conservation; at the same time,agriculture’s important role in greenhouse gas (GHG) production is increasing as rising incomes drive up demand for meat proteins; 10
- 11. Climate change links between Agriculture and Food Security 3. Climate change hits agricultural productivity directly through drought, floods, pests, diseases and catastrophic events, as well as by temperature changes that affect plant productivity; 4. In order to anticipate the foresighted peak in oil reserves, many governments are subsidizing the production and trade of biofuels, so contributing to increased food prices; 11
- 12. Climate change links between Agriculture and Food Security 5.In order to diversify financial assets, investors are turning their attention to agricultural commodities, amplifying price increases; 6.In order to safeguard their own domestic food security, countries with high populations and/or low agricultural potential are competing with small farmers in other countries for land and water by buying or contracting large tracts of land. 12
- 13. Climate Impacts on Food Security One of the most significant impacts of climate change is the potential increase in food insecurity due to changes in the productivity of agricultural land, seasonal variability, and higher magnitude of disasters. Climate change interacts with the different drivers of food insecurity to create new risks (but it can also create opportunities) and can affect all dimensions of food securit 13
- 14. 14 Factors related to climate change a) Indiscriminate use of natural resources b) Global warming and meteorological observatories c) Excessive and unplanned urbanization d) Unplanned industrial growth e) Imbalanced use of agricultural inputs and extreme farming f) Population influx / pressure
- 15. 15 Factors related to climate change a) Effect of industrial pollution son marine life h) Flood , Drought and other natural disasters i) Land erosion land sliding ii) Pollution of rivers, streams by different means iii) Waste water and waste crops residues iv) Wastes of marbles specially in Warsak Peshawar Jehangira Swabi
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- 17. Source: Stern Review Critical Challenges: Climate change 17
- 18. Changes in Human and Natural Drivers of climate Changes 1.„CO2 concentrations have increased from 280 ppm (since 1750) to 368 ppm in 2000 (31.4%) to 379 in 2005 (35.4% rise) and 396.18 ppm in April 2012 2. CH4 concentrations have increased from a pre-industrial value of about 715 ppb to 1732 ppb in early 1990s (142% rise) and is 1774ppb in 2005 (148% rise). The rise since 1990s is only 2.4%. 3.N2O concentrations have increased from a pre-industrial value of about 270 ppb to 319 ppb in 2005 (18% rise). The growth rate has about 270 ppb to 319 ppb in 2005 (18% rise). The growth rate has been approximately constant since 1980s. More than a third of all N2O emissions are anthropogenic and are primarily due to agriculture 18
- 19. Changes in Human and Natural Drivers of climate Changes Temperature 1.11 of the last 12 years (1995-2006) except 1996 rank among the 12 warmest years in the instrumental record of global surface temperature (since 1850). 2. Widespread changes in extreme temperatures have been observed over the last 50 years. Cold days, cold nights and frost have become less frequent, while hot days, hot nights, and heat waves have become more frequent 19
- 21. AGRICULTURE AND CLIMATE CHANGE: VIRTUOUS CIRCLE AGRICULTURE CONTRIBUTES TO FIGHTING CLIMATE CHANGE AGRICULTURAL VULNERABILITY IS REDUCED AGRICULTURE BUSSINES EXPANSION IS BASED ON SUSTAINABLE PRACTICES INCLUDING FOREST AREA INCREMENT, PROTECTION AND RESTORATION AGRICULTURE INCREASES: AGRO ECOSYSTEMS AND FOREST ECOSYSTEMS CLIMATE STABILIZATION GLOBAL SERVICE 21
- 22. Impact of Climate Change in Agriculture 1.„Fourteen crops were considered for impact assessment (at 0.3ºC per decade). All the selected crops were found to be suffering due to heat stress. 2. significant increase in growing degree days reduces the growing season length for the crop. 3. 8% and 15% increase in GDD in 2020 and 2050.„With rainfall decreases by 6%, net irrigation water requirements could increase by 29%. 22
- 23. Impact of Climate Change in Agriculture 4. The areas suitable for agriculture, the length of growing seasons and the yield potential of food staples are all projected to decline. 5. Changing climate patterns will have important implications for water availability. 6. Across the globe, sea levels could rise rapidly with accelerated ice sheet disintegration. 23
- 24. Impact of Climate Change in Agriculture 7. Climate change will affect human health through variables such as changes in temperature, exposure to natural disasters, access to food and air quality. 8. Changes induced by climate change are likely to result in species range shifts and changes in tree productivity, adding further stress to forest ecosystems 24
- 25. Impacts on Agriculture contd 9.Soils are sources of concern as well. The global crop land availability is in decline as a result of population growth, soil degradation, soil losses and soil sealing, shrinking water resources, salt water intrusion into coastal aquifers, as well as rising temperatures that are leading to falling land productivity. 10.Loss of agri-biodiversity is associated with a range of causal factors, including destruction and fragmentation of habitats and the increasing use of land for non-agricultural purposes, emissions, agricultural intensification, etc. (Millenium Ecosystem Assessment, 2005) 25
- 26. Impacts on Agriculture contd 11.Landslides tend to occur more frequently in areas with clayey sub-soil, steep slopes, intense and abundant precipitation and land abandonment, such as the Alpine and the Mediterranean regions. Again this trend is accelerated by the intensification of pasture use. 12.The contamination with pesticides in surface water, ground water and partly in drinking water, in particular after heavy rainfalls, is another problem area 13.Pandemic pest and diseases in animal and plant production The movement of plant pests, animal diseases and invasive alien aquatic organisms across physical and political boundaries threatens food security in new ways in a climate-changing world. 26
- 27. AGRICULTURE AND CLIMATE CHANGE: NEED TO CHANGE A PERFECT VICIOUS CIRCLE AGRICULTURE CONTRIBUTES TO CLIMATE CHANGE CLIMATE CHANGE INCREASES VULNERABILITY OF AGRICULTURE AGRICULTURAL FRONTIER EXPANSION IS BASED ON DEFORESTATION AGRICULTURE REDUCES FOREST ECOSYSTEMS, CLIMATE STABILIZATION, GLOBAL SERVICE 27
- 28. Adaptation in Agriculture Changes in Cropping Patterns „Sugar beet instead of sugarcane „Adjusting Cropping Pattern with Water Availability „More share of cropped area under oil seed crops „Improved Productivity and Production Management „Farm forestry 28
- 30. Recommendation by experts Possibilities to reduce GHG emissions and to mitigate change effects associated with “the agricultural sec to understand not only the functioning of ecosystems but also their criticality. Therefore the systems approaches needed have to be highlighted to further develop low external input concepts which are more diversified and "greener" (the next generation of agricultural research) paving the way for alternative models . 30
- 31. Recommendation by experts To quickly improve the capacities of the agricultural knowledge system/ information communication technology and to improve the response capacity of the Agriculture , food security, Accordingly restoring soil organic matter To encourage more systems oriented research to better understand key issues in terms of functioning and criticality, better integration and coordination of research efforts , Rain water harvesting, Drip and Sprinkler irrigation system, efficient use of water , bio pesticides, bio aab. New 31
- 32. Recommendation by experts Contd Strengthening of disaster management department and coordination with nation building departments at provincial level ,Updating meteorological Departments activities through SUPARCO and satellite imaginary , warning for flood etc Agro/Biofuel 3rd generation ( Diesel Plant Jatropa). Bio-farm waste need to be handled for energy generation such as bio- gas plants/ mechanization plants, etc 32
- 33. Recommendation by experts Contd Agriculture policies , Agricultural models; trade policies; land policies Should be framed inviting all stake holders at Federal and provincial level addressing the climate change. The adoption of integrated crop management as the preferred crop protection. Watershed management , range management , afforestation projects to be initiated 33
- 34. Sprinkler Irrigation Sprinkler irrigation is a method of applying irrigation water which is similar to natural rainfall. 34
- 36. Energy Conservation and Laser Leveling 36
- 37. Solar Energy 37
- 38. Bio Gas 38
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Editor's Notes
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