L13 The Rise of the Machine
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The document discusses the history and evolution of computing, exploring early machines and key figures such as Charles Babbage and Alan Turing, who contributed to the development of computers. It highlights the transition from mechanical calculators to electronic computers, including the impact of innovations like transistors and integrated circuits, leading to the emergence of personal computers. Additionally, it covers the disruptive nature of technology and how early computing machines laid the groundwork for modern data processing and computing industries.
![Konrad Zuse (1910-1995)
German Engineer
Built primitive machines, Z1-Z4 based
on relay switches in 1936 – 1944
Used binary system
Designed his own language, Plankalkül
Never received any official support from
war-time Germany unlike the Allies
P2 max (V0[:8.0],V1[:8.0]) => R0[:8.0]
V0[:8.0] => Z1[:8.0]
(Z1[:8.0] < V1[:8.0]) -> V1[:8.0] => Z1[:8.0]
Z1[:8.0] => R0[:8.0]
END
Source: Konrad Zuse
Early Work](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/l13theriseofthemachine-180218175637/85/L13-The-Rise-of-the-Machine-38-320.jpg)
L13 The Rise of the Machine
- 1. LECTURE L13 RISE OF THE MACHINE
- 2. Keep this in Mind Adjacent possible The S-curve The Law of Diffusion of Innovation Arrogance of the Present The Disruption of Innovation Theory The Resources, Processes and Values Theory The Liquid Network
- 3. History of Computers History can help us explain many things We can use our laws and theories to explain events Computers are relatively recent and their development is fairly fast
- 4. “I can assure you on the highest authority that the data processing is a fad and won’t last out the year.” Editor-in-charge of business books, Prentice-Hall 1957
- 9. How many computers do you have in your household? Think about this
- 10. History Computing is time consuming and error prone Demands for computation were increasing with more organised societies Industrial revolution and the Napoleonic reforms Impetus came from Government: Taxing and Defence
- 11. Efforts to speed calculations started early Use of logarithmic tables and trigonometry to speed calculations The Counting Business
- 12. The Slide Rule by William Oughtred in 1625 Built using logarithms, multiplication of two numbers could be done easier a*b = 10^(log(a)+log(b)) Much quicker than manual calculation The Counting Business
- 13. Wilhelm Schickard (1592 -1635) German professor of Hebrew and Astronomy University of Tüblingen, Germany Built a calculating machine in 1620s Documented in letters to Johannes Kepler 1623-24 Early Machines
- 14. Blaise Pascal (1623-1662) French mathematician, physicist, and religious philosopher Built an adding machine in1642-44 Tried to commercialize the machine but labor was too cheap Early Machines
- 15. Wilhelm von Leibniz (1646-1716) German mathematician and philosopher Built a machine, the Leibniz Wheel that could multiply and divide Early Machines
- 16. Workmanship for building complex machines lacked In late eighteenth century demand for calculation was growing Calculations were done by hand Tedious, slow and error-prone and tables of logarithms were riddled with errors History
- 17. Think about this How long does it take to compute 707 decimal places of PI? 3.1415926535897932384626433832795028841971693993751058209749445923078164062862 089986280348253421170679821480865132823066470938446095505822317253594081284811 174502841027019385211055596446229489549303819644288109756659334461284756482337 867831652712019091456485669234603486104543266482133936072602491412737245870066 063155881748815209209628292540917153643678925903600113305305488204665213841469 519415116094330572703657595919530921861173819326117931051185480744623799627495 673518857527248912279381830119491298336733624406566430860213949463952247371907 021798609437027705392171762931767523846748184676694051320005681271452635608277 85771342757789609173637178721468440901224953430146549585371050792279689258923
- 19. Think about this The idea of calculating with steam was to many impossible - machines could never take over this human activity Yet it did. Can you think of a task done today that will be taken over by machine in the future?
- 20. Sometimes called Inventor of the Computer Wanted to remove the inevitable human errors from computing Believed that machines could replace laborious and error-prone calculations Charles Babbage (1791 – 1871)
- 21. Machine to compute polynomials Got grants but efforts were slow Lack of workmanship of the time delayed the project Worked stopped 1833 Difference Engine
- 22. Babbage started on a new machine in 1834 First industrial revolution Programmable machine – with primitive programming language Input was in punched cards Run by steam Analytical engine
- 23. A Programmable Machine - General purpose computer Contained mill to calculate, store to keep data, and formulas The first programmer Augusta Ada (1815-1852) Countess of Lovelace
- 25. One of the first calculating machines Developed by James Ritty in 1879 in response to thefts by staff “The Incorruptible Cashier” National Cash Register Company – NCR One of the salesman was Tomas Watson, Sr. Watson later left for CTR – Computing-Tabulating-Recording Company Cash Register
- 27. In the US need for data processing was growing One application was census taking US population grew from 17 million in 1840 to 50 million in 1880 It took 1.495 clerks 7 years to produce the 1880 census Tabulating Machines
- 28. Source: Tabulating machine Herman Hollerith Tabulating Machine Company – TMC US Census Bureau awarded Herman Hollerith a contract to produce the 1890 census Tabulating Machines with punched cards Successfully finished in 2,5 years with one-third less cost (claimed) Tabulating Machines
- 29. Source: Tabulating machine Herman Hollerith Used punched cards Hollerith cards were in use until 1960s Tabulating Machines
- 30. The Business of Data Processing Even with the growing need for data processing around 1900, the market for tabulating machines was limited CRT and TMC merged and would later change the name to International Business Machines – IBM Tabulating Machines
- 31. ▪ Early machines could not compete with manual labor – The cost was not low enough to disrupt ▪ Workmanship was lacking ▪ Energy to power machines was not available ▪ Computing requirement were modest until 18th century ▪ Babbage failed to build machines despite the resources ▪ Babbage (or rather Ada), had all the ideas for modern computer Lessons: Early Computing Machines
- 32. ▪ First practical calculating device was a Cash Register – Designed due to another problem: theft – Specialised problem instead of a generic one ▪ Tabulating machines appear with the electricity ▪ First buyers of tabulating machines were governments – Centralised Lessons: Early Computing Machines
- 34. “I think there is a market for about five computers” - Tomas Watson, Sr.
- 35. Foundation of electric computing was laid early Mechanical computers were not considered practical Electricity was spreading fast in the beginning of the 20th century Threat of war is looming in the 1930s Governments turn to computing for ballistic computations and code-breaking Electric Computing
- 36. Although electricity had entered the equation, it had done so only as an alternative method of powering mechanical equipment Source: Engines that Move Markets The Prevailing Technology Trap
- 38. Konrad Zuse (1910-1995) German Engineer Built primitive machines, Z1-Z4 based on relay switches in 1936 – 1944 Used binary system Designed his own language, Plankalkül Never received any official support from war-time Germany unlike the Allies P2 max (V0[:8.0],V1[:8.0]) => R0[:8.0] V0[:8.0] => Z1[:8.0] (Z1[:8.0] < V1[:8.0]) -> V1[:8.0] => Z1[:8.0] Z1[:8.0] => R0[:8.0] END Source: Konrad Zuse Early Work
- 41. Location of top-secret code-breaking team Code-breaking the German coding machine ENIGMA Bletchley Park
- 43. Source: Alan Turing, COLOSSUS, Enigma English mathematician, logician, and cryptographer Headed the team at Bletchley Park Worked on the algorithms to break the ENIGMA code Bombe Computer based on heuristics Lead to COLOSSUS – one of the first electronic computer Publishes paper in 1936: On Computable Numbers Alan Turing
- 44. Source: COLOSSUS COLOSSUS Built in England’s Bletchley Park and used by British code breakers to read encrypted German ENIGMA messages during World War II Designed by Alan Turing Winston Churchill specifically ordered the destruction of most of the Colossus machines into 'pieces no bigger than a man's hand‘ War Machines
- 45. ENIAC Electronic Numerical Integrator and Computer Built by the U.S. Army for the purpose of calculating ballistic firing tables Used 18.000 vacuum tubes Designed by John Mauchly and J. Presper Eckert The machine was unveiled in 1946 and was in operation until 1955 Source: EINIAC War Machines
- 47. John von Neumann, Von Neumann architecture Hungarian mathematician Worked on the Manhattan project and became involved in Moore’s School ENIAC and EDVAC projects Publishes paper - or a memo, On computer design, 1945 Came to be know as Von Neumann architecture John von Neumann
- 48. Copyright © 2011 Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson Based on vacuum tubes War Machines
- 49. Source: Model of UNIVAC I, c. 1954. Picture from Smithsonian Institution Source: UNIVAC I Commercial Computer 5,200 vacuum tubes, weighed 13 tons, consumed 125 kW, and could perform about 1,905 operations per second running on a 2.25 MHz clock Occupied more than 35.5 m² of floor space The addition time was 525 microseconds UNIVAC I
- 50. United States presidential election of 1952 Eisenhower vs. Stevenson
- 52. Transistor Era
- 53. Transistor was invented by William Shockley, John Bardeen and Walter Brattain in 1948
- 54. Device use to amplify or switch electronic signals Huge performance improvement Smaller Less energy More robust Faster Transistor
- 55. Copyright © 2011 Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson Computers became faster, larger and more powerful
- 57. Source: Tyranny of Numbers, Transistor Computer Computer Engineers have much more flexibility with transistors Problem was that as the number of components increased, wiring them together became a problem Tyranny of Numbers
- 59. Source: Integrated circuit Introduced in 1958 by two inventors Robert Noyce at Fairchild Semiconductor and Jack Kilby at Texas Instruments Transistors could be wired together in practical way Mass manufacturing of ICs The Invention of the Integrated Circuit
- 60. Adjacent possible Two inventors at the same time invented the IC All the enabling technologies are ready and there is research pressure to solve the tyranny of numbers
- 61. Competition Emerges The Computer Market is born The main application is data processing, business applications like payroll, inventory and so on IBM enters the computer business Tomas Watson, Jr. launched IBM System/360 in 1964 Systematically replaced data processing machines with mainframe computers
- 62. Automation
- 63. Automation – Computers begin to disrupt jobs in 1950 Start to replace jobs Banks and insurance companies were early adopters Handling paycheques, payroll that used to require many clerks to compute Automation
- 64. Source: Desk Set (from IMDB) Hollywood took notice Desk Set from 1957 with Spencer Tracey and Katherine Hepburn Automation
- 66. ▪ Electricity was key to computers – Switching technologies ▪ First electric computers were primitive and fragile – Low performance ▪ Centralisation – First computers were in centers – Expensive, large, run by experts – Priests Lessons: Early Computing Machines
- 67. ▪ Giant “Brains” – Association with human thought ▪ Automation – Disruption – Companies need fewer clerks to compute – Tedious jobs eliminated – Big debate – computer executive had to defend the existence of their machines ▪ Abstractions few – Programs were wired in Lessons: Early Computing Machines
- 68. Computers in the 1970s
- 69. The Disruptive Innovation Theory Resources, Processes and Values Theory Think About This!
- 70. IBM 704 IBM System/360 Large computers in data centres Batch operations Critical applications Financial transaction processing Mainframes
- 71. Computers were expensive to purchase and maintain To make it efficient required multiple users and large data centres Utility Computing Time-sharing of expensive equipment Time-sharing
- 72. Moore’s Law Cost of computers went down Computers became faster and smaller Normal economics did not apply
- 73. Cost for new entrants in the computer business was prohibitive in the 60s Market for those that did not need complete solution but could benefit from using computes Birth of the Minicomputers Minicomputers
- 74. The academic community embraced the opportunity of minicomputers Militaries were also early users of minicomputers Minicomputers
- 75. Digital Equipment Corporation Founded in 1957 by Ken Olsen Launched PDP-1 in 1960 The PDP-8 was the first successful commercial minicomputer – 1965 Used integrated circuits Time-sharing allowed multiple users to use the machines at the same time Minicomputers
- 76. The Disruptive Innovation Theory Digital used relatively simple, convenient, low-cost innovation to create growth and disrupt IBM
- 77. The Resources, Processes and Values Theory IBM Was a mainframe company, their customers wanted mainframes, not low-performance mini computers
- 78. ▪ IBM, industry’s first leader, sold mainframe computers to the central accounting and data processing departments of large organizations ▪ The emergence of the minicomputer represented disruptive technology to IBM and competitors ▪ Their customers had no use for it: it promised lower, not higher margins ▪ As a result the mainframe makers ignored it for years Clayton M. Christensen: The Innovator’s Dilemma Lessons: Early Computing Machines
- 79. ▪ This allowed new entrants: DEC, Data General, Prime, Wang and Nixdorf – to create and dominate the minicomputer market ▪ IBM entered the minicomputer market when it was performance competitive to the needs of their customers ▪ The history repeated itself Clayton M. Christensen: The Innovator’s Dilemma Lessons: Early Computing Machines
- 82. May 25, 1961 Status: Mainframe era, mini computer early days Transistor era, integrated circuits just invented Programming languages new The World in 1961
- 83. “The space program badly needed the things the integrated circuit could provide.” - Jack St. Clair Kilby
- 84. Robert Noyce and Gordon Moore founded Intel Semiconductor company Initial focus was on memory chips There was still enormous potential market for calculations The vision of Charles Babbage was still not realised but the mainframe market met the needs of governments and large organisations Semiconductor Industry is Born
- 85. Intel introduced the first microprocessor 4004 in 1971 8008 in 1972, 8080 in 1974 and 8088 in 1979 The beginning of the Personal Computer, the PC The Microprocessor
- 86. Intel was really reluctant to go into the microchip business No market existed No demand at the time Intel created 4004 for another company They would not market chips, but built them when ordered The company cancelled the order and Intel was forced to offer them for sale The Microprocessor
- 87. The Calculator
- 88. Advances in technology introduced the desktop calculator The market grew fast With advances, the calculators became more powerful and smaller Pocket calculators Became widespread in the 70s Replaced the slide rule after 374 years The Calculator
- 89. Many companies start to make Calculators Casio, Sharp, Canon, HP, MITS and more In Europe, Aristo, Denner & Pape, a slide rule manufacturer since 1872, also entered the market in 1972 Price dropped fast: $400 in 1972, $200, $100 and $50 in 1974 Companies like MITS need to find new ways of revenues The Calculator
- 90. Think about this! All mini-computer companies had what it would take to go into small scale products – they even had people proposing the idea, but they did not!
- 92. MITS marketed Altair in 1975 Came with Intel 8080 Users needed to assemble the machine themselves No keyboard, no screen, no printer 256 byte of RAM, programmed with switches Included BASIC interpreter from Microsoft Written by Bill Gates and Paul Allen Cost of $397 appealed to computer enthusiasts The Personal Computer
- 93. Bill Gates and Paul Allen Wrote a BASIC interpreter for the Altair Founded a company they called Micro-Soft Mircosoft
- 94. Steve Jobs and Steve Wozniak Show the Apple I in the Palo Alto Homebrew Computer Club in 1976 Apple II was marketed 1977 and became a huge success - “Apple growth” Hewlett-Packard had turned Wozniak down – no market Apple
- 96. Existing computer companies were not interested in PCs DEC, HP, IBM, and Control Data did not see a business model HP rejected a proposal from Steve Wozniak DEC rejected a proposal from David Ahl Support for machines like this was considered impossible Consequence: The development of the PC had to begin with hobbyists Computer Companies
- 98. The Liquid Network Think about this
- 99. The early computers were all about building the right hardware – this ignored what important element?
- 100. SOFTWARE
- 101. L14 From the Internet to Blockchain The Internet was a primitive network owned by no one, based on the TCP/IP standard, and at the same time big companies where promoting their networks Yet the Internet won… Next