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Market Outlook 2019
ELECTION
YEAR
INTEREST
RATE
CRUDE
OIL
EARNINGS
VALUATIONS
TRADE
WAR
Middle-of-the-Road
Approach to Investing
Rear-View Mirror: Glancing Through 2018
(Equity)
Source: Reuters, Morgan Stanley, Washington Post, Internal Research; Data as of Dec 31, 2018
2
Union Budget
- Introduces LTCG on
Equities
Crude
breaches
$ 80/Barrel
Mutual Fund
Scheme
Categorization &
Rationalisation
35,000
34,000
33,000
32,000
37,000
36,000
38,000
39,000
40,000
Jan-18
Feb-18
Mar-18
Apr-18
May-18
Jun-18
Jul-18
Aug-18
Sep-18
Oct-18
Nov-18
Dec-18
S&PBSESensexLevels
Trade War
begins in Earnest
No Confidence
motion against
NDA govt. held
Congress wins
3 out of 5 state
elections
Concerns of
Systemic
liquidity risks in
the NBFCs and
HFCs
India's rank in ease of
doing business imporves
from 100 to 77
Trump takes
the first shot on
Tariffs
Kim Jong Un
crossed the border
to meet South
Korean president
US China
trade war
intensifies
FAANGs
starts to
correct
China's growth
slowest pace over
a decade
Head of auto
giant
Nissan-Renault-
Mitsubishi
arrested
EU and UK agreed
on an accord for
Britain’s exit
HUAWEI CFO
arrested in
Canada
Powell does
not buckle &
increases
interest rates
Recap: Our Calls In 2018
3
Redeem money from
Midcap and SmallCap
Buy Accrual Schemes
Invest in low duration schemes
Invest in Gold in a staggered manner
Invest in Asset Allocation & Large Cap
Oriented Schemes
Muted returns for last 5 Years
Markets expected to be volatile and Large cap
available at a better discount
Valuation expensive &
risk reward benefit not
favourable
Budget positive for Credit category
Trade tensions, Unwinding of QE* by
central banks & Oil price volatility
Our Calls Rationale
Recap
QE – Quantitative Easing
The information contained herein is solely for private circultion for reading/understanding of registered Advisors/Distributors of ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company & should not be circulated to investors/prospective investors.
Portfolio Action based on our calls –
Mid- and Smallcap In 2018
Mid Year Allocation : Aug 31, 2018; Past performance may or may not sustain in future. The asset allocation and investment strategy will be as per the Scheme Information Document
Large
Cap (86%)
Midcap
(10%)
Smallcap
(4%)
ICICI Prudential Multicap Fund
Large Cap
(83%)
Midcap
(11%)
Smallcap
(6%)
ICICI Prudential Value Discovery Fund
Started moving to
Large caps by cutting
down on mid- and
smallcap; Our mid-year
asset allocation in
flexible schemes was
skewed towards
largecaps
4
The information contained herein is solely for private circultion for reading/understanding of registered Advisors/Distributors of ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company & should not be circulated to investors/prospective investors.
Portfolio Action based on our calls –
Move to Debt In 2018
Midyear Allocation - Aug 31, 2018; Past performance may or may not sustain in future. The asset allocation and investment strategy will be as per the Scheme Information Document.
ICICI Prudential
Balanced
Advantage Fund
30-80
30
ICICI Prudential
Equity & Debt
Fund
65-80
60
ICICI Prudential
Multi-Asset Fund
10-80
47
ICICI Prudential
Equity Savings
Fund
15-50
15
Net Equity Levels (%)
under normal circumstances
August Net Equity
Levels (%)
Expecting markets to be volatile, we moved towards debt in our asset allocation schemes.
Our midyear allocation shows low net equity levels.
5
The information contained herein is solely for private circultion for reading/understanding of registered Advisors/Distributors of ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company & should not be circulated to investors/prospective investors.
Portfolio Action based on our Calls –
Reducing Duration In 2018
Data as of Aug 31, 2018; Past performance may or may not sustain in future.
Scheme Name
Modified Duration (in years)
Aug 2017 Aug 2018
ICICI Prudential Gilt Fund 10.13 0.14
ICICI Prudential All Seasons Bond Fund 6.41 1.22
ICICI Prudential Medium Term Bond Fund 2.97 1.61
ICICI Prudential Ultra Short Term Fund 0.96 0.28
ICICI Prudential Credit Risk Fund 2.12 1.51
ICICI Prudential Floating Interest Fund 1.14 0.46
ICICI Prudential Short Term Fund 2.74 1.17
ICICI Prudential Corporate Bond Fund 2.11 1.15
ICICI Prudential Savings Fund 0.88 0.53
6
Global Markets
in 2018
7
Global Indices Performance in CY2018
(In INR terms)
Source: MFI Explorer,BRAZIL - Ibovespa Sao Paulo Index, INDIA – S&P BSE Sensex, INDONESIA – Jakarta Composite Index, US – NASDAQ, RUSSIA – RTS Index, TAIWAN – Taiwan Weighted Index, SINGAPORE – Strait Times,
JAPAN – Nikkei, SWITZERLAND - Swiss Market Index, FRANCE – CAC 40 Index, UK – FTSE 100, HONG KONG – Hang Seng, SOUTH KOREA – Kospi, GERMANY – DAX Index, CHINA – SSE Composite Index ;
Data as on Dec 31, 2018; Past performance may or may not sustain in future; Returns are in absolute terms. Map source: mapchart.net.Map not to scale. This map has been used for design and representational purpose only, it
does not depict the geographical boundaries of the country. These do not conform to the external boundaries of India recognized by the Survey of India.
8
SWITZERLAND
(-12.6%)
FRANCE
(-13.4%)
UK
(-14.3%)
HONG KONG
(-14.8%)
SOUTH KOREA
(-17.3%)
GERMANY
(-19.6%)
CHINA
(-24.6%)
JAPAN
(-12.1%)
SINGAPORE
(-10.3%)
TAIWAN
(-8.6%)
RUSSIA
(-8.5%)
US
(-4.7%)
INDONESIA
(-2.5%)
INDIA
(5.9%)
BRAZIL
(11.9%)
US Rate Hikes and Global Yields
Source: Source: CRISIL Research; Data as of Dec 28, 2018
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
India
China
USA
UK
Euro
Zone
Japan
Yield(%)
Global Yield Movement
Dec-18
1 month ago
12 months ago
9
2.2
2.4
2.6
2.8
3.0
3.2
3.4
Jan-18
Feb-18
Mar-18
Apr-18
May-18
Jun-18
Jul-18
Aug-18
Sep-18
Oct-18
Nov-18
Dec-18
UStreasuryyields(%)
US Federal Reserve (The Fed)
hiked rates by 25 bps for the
sixth time since 2015
The Fed hiked rates again by
25 bps on the back of
improving jobs data and
robust growth prospects
The Fed hiked rates by
25 bps for the third time
in 2018
The Fed hiked rates by 25 bps for the fourth time in 2018;
markets reacted sharply to the news with the US markets
recording its worst Christmas-eve trade in a decade
Currencies Across The World in CY2018
Source: CRISIL Research; Data as of Dec 28, 2018
Stronger-than-expected
US growth momentum
in 2018 prevented
currencies across the
world from capitalising
on the gains made
against the USD in 2017
2.1
0.1 0.0
-0.2
-2.3 -2.7 -3.3 -4.5 -4.9 -4.9 -5.6 -5.7 -6.4 -7.5
-9.5
-16.6-17.0
-20.6
-38.8
-45
-40
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
Japan
Thailand
USA
HongKong
Singapore
Malaysia
Taiwan
SouthKorea
Germany
EuroZone
Philiphines
China
UK
Indonesia
India
SouthAfrica
Brazil
Russia
Turkey
%changetotheUSD
Currencies against the USD
10
Indian Equity
Market in 2018
11
Largecap, Midcap, Smallcap
Source: BSEIndia; Data as of Dec 31, 2018; Past performance may or may not be sustained in future; Returns are in Absolute terms and are based on the PRI variant of the indices.
1.9
27.5
5.1
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2016 2017 2018
S&PBSESensexReturns(%)
8.0
46.1
-14.6
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
2016 2017 2018
S&PMidcapReturns(%)
1.8
57.7
-24.7
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2016 2017 2018
S&PBSESmallcapReturns(%)
S&P BSE Sensex
Closed at 36,068
S&P BSE Midcap
Closed at 15,438
S&P BSE Smallcap
Closed at 14,706
12
Consumption and export story played out in 2018
Source: BSEIndia; Data as of Dec 27, 2018; Past performance may or may not be sustained in future. Returns are in Absolute terms and are based on the PRI variant of the indices.
IT, FMCG, and
Bankex were the
only indices to
witness gains in
2018
-22.6
4.1
-20.9
-2.8
0.1 0.7
9.8
-6.5
-22.7-20.2
24.5
-22.5
-17.1
-22.1
-31.0
-40.5
-15.7
-50.0
-40.0
-30.0
-20.0
-10.0
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
Returnsperformance(%)
Sector performance
2018
13
The Nifty‟s Narrow Rally in 2018
Source: NSEIndia; Data as of Dec 27, 2018; Past performance may or may not be sustained in future. The stock(s)/sector(s) mentioned in this slide do not constitute any recommendation and ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund may or may
not have any future position in this stock(s).
11.3
16.3
16.6
18.5
20.2
23.0
28.3
37.2
39.3
43.1
0 10 20 30 40 50
HDFC Bank
Reliance Industries
Asian Paints
Bajaj Finserv
Kotak Mahindra Bank
Infosys
Hindustan Unilever
Tech Mahindra
TCS
Bajaj Finance
Returns (%)
Nifty 50 rally was
largely sustained by
a few select stocks.
14
DII compensated for FPI selling in CY2018
Source: NSDL, BSEIndia; Data as of Dec 31, 2018; FPI – Foreign Portfolio Investors; DII – Domestic Institutional Investors
15
-40,000
-30,000
-20,000
-10,000
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
Jan-Mar2016
Apr-Jun2016
Jul-Sep2016
Oct-Dec2016
Jan-Mar2017
Apr-Jun2017
Jul-Sep2017
Oct-Dec2017
Jan-Mar2018
Apr-Jun2018
Jul-Sep2018
Oct-Dec2018
Netflows(inRs.Cr)
FPI Net Flows (in Rs. Cr) DII Net Flows (in Rs. Cr)
Markets in 2018 –
Some Unexpected Events
16
Markets in 2018 –
Some Unexpected Events
The information contained herein is solely for private circultion for reading/understanding of registered Advisors/Distributors of ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company & should not be circulated to investors/prospective investors.
Oil - The Joker In The Pack
17
Crude oil prices, largely
expected to remain
high, lost momentum
towards the end of the
year slipping to USD
50/bbl – owing to
OPEC‟s decision to ease
supply
Source: CRISIL Research, Data as of Dec 28, 2018; OPEC – Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries
63.25
59.92
77.2
85.83
50.47
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
Jan-18
Mar-18
May-18
Jul-18
Sep-18
Nov-18
OilPirces(inUSD/bbl)
Dec-18
The information contained herein is solely for private circultion for reading/understanding of registered Advisors/Distributors of ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company & should not be circulated to investors/prospective investors.
The Bitcoin Nose-dive
Source: Coinmarketcap.com; Data as of Dec 24, 2018; Past performance may or may not be sustained in future.
1,316
6,358
19,497
9,744
3,546
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000 Apr-17
Jun-17
Aug-17
Oct-17
Dec-17
Feb-18
Apr-18
Jun-18
Aug-18
Oct-18
Bitcoinprices(inUSD)
Dec-18
Year 2018 was marked
by the collapse of the
crypto-currency which
saw a meteoric rise in
2017 and early 2018
18
The information contained herein is solely for private circultion for reading/understanding of registered Advisors/Distributors of ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company & should not be circulated to investors/prospective investors.
Invincible FAANG‟s in the Bear Grip
Source: Reuters; Data as of Dec 24, 2018; Past performance may or may not be sustained in future..
120
170
220
270
Jan-18
Feb-18
Mar-18
Apr-18
May-18
Jun-18
Jul-18
Aug-18
Sep-18
Oct-18
Nov-18
Dec-18
Prices(inUSD)
Facebook
1100
1300
1500
1700
1900
2100
Jan-18
Feb-18
Mar-18
Apr-18
May-18
Jun-18
Jul-18
Aug-18
Sep-18
Oct-18
Nov-18
Dec-18
Prices(inUSD)
Amazon
140
190
240
Jan-18
Feb-18
Mar-18
Apr-18
May…
Jun-18
Jul-18
Aug-18
Sep-18
Oct-18
Nov-18
Dec-18
Prices(inUSD)
Apple
180
230
280
330
380
430
Jan-18
Feb-18
Mar-18
Apr-18
May-18
Jun-18
Jul-18
Aug-18
Sep-18
Oct-18
Nov-18
Dec-18
Prices(inUSD)
Netflix
980
1080
1180
1280
1380
Jan-18
Feb-18
Mar-18
Apr-18
May-18
Jun-18
Jul-18
Aug-18
Sep-18
Oct-18
Nov-18
Dec-18
Prices(inUSD)
Google
19
Equity Investment Outlook 2019:
Accumulation Phase
20
Puzzle To Unlock The Theme for Outlook 2019
(Solution to the puzzle is at the end of the presentation)
21
- A Thorny Plant
- Another word for „STOP‟
- Short for Capital Expenditure
- To err is to be _____
- A Clue
- _____ and Effect
- To Call
“With valuations priced in and equity
indicators entering the moderate zone,
we believe investing is now in the
____________ _____.”
WORD JUMBLE –
Unscramble the words below using the clues given alongside
Now rearrange the circled letters
and complete the statement below
to unlock the theme for the
INVESTMENT OUTLOOK 2019
Market Checklist -
„VCTS‟ Back To The Neutral Zone
P/E – Price-to-Earnings; P/B – Price to Book Value Ratio; MF – Mutual Funds; FPI – Foreign Portfolio Investors; GDP – Gross Domestic Product.
22
The information contained herein is solely for private circultion for reading/understanding of registered Advisors/Distributors of ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company & should not be circulated to investors/prospective investors.
In-House Equity Valuation Index:
Back to the Neutral Zone
The Valuation Index
indicates that investors
could consider asset
allocation schemes.
Equity Valuation index is calculated by assigning equal weights to Price-to-Earnings (PE), Price-to-Book (PB), G-Sec*PE and Market Cap to GDP ratio. G-Sec – Government Securities.
GDP – Gross Domestic Product; Asset Allocation – Schemes that invest both in equity and fixed income
23
110.44
50
70
90
110
130
150
170
Dec-05
Dec-06
Dec-07
Dec-08
Dec-09
Dec-10
Dec-11
Dec-12
Dec-13
Dec-14
Dec-15
Dec-16
Dec-17
Dec-18
Invest in Equities
Aggressively invest in Equities
Asset Allocation
Incremental Money to Debt
Book Partial Profits
Valuations – P/E and P/B within comfort zone
Source: NSE India; Data as of Dec 27, 2018; P/E – Price to Earnings; P/B – Price to Book Value ; SD – Standard Deviation
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
26
Jan-04
Oct-04
Jul-05
Apr-06
Jan-07
Oct-07
Jul-08
Apr-09
Jan-10
Oct-10
Jul-11
Apr-12
Jan-13
Oct-13
Jul-14
Apr-15
Jan-16
Oct-16
Jul-17
Apr-18
P/EValuations
Nifty 50 P/E Valuations
Nifty 50 Trailing PE Average -1 SD +/- 1SD
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
5
5.5
6
Jan-04
Oct-04
Jul-05
Apr-06
Jan-07
Oct-07
Jul-08
Apr-09
Jan-10
Oct-10
Jul-11
Apr-12
Jan-13
Oct-13
Jul-14
Apr-15
Jan-16
Oct-16
Jul-17
Apr-18
P/Bratio
Nifty 50 P/B ratio
Nifty 50 P/B ratio Average -1 SD +/- 1SD
Dec-18
Dec-18
24
Valuations – Largecap & Midcap discount
and Dividend Yield
Source: NSE India, CRISIL Research; Data as of Dec 28, 2018
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
(5)
(2)
1
4
7
10
Dec-02
Dec-04
Dec-06
Dec-08
Dec-10
Dec-12
Dec-14
Dec-16
Dec-18
10-yrG-secyield(%)
Nifty50earningsyield(%)
G-Sec yield reasonable over
earnings yields but has come off highs
Yield gap Earnings Yield India 10Y G-sec yield
25
22.0
43.8
18
23
28
33
38
43
48
53
58
63
Jan-18
Mar-18
May-18
Jul-18
Sep-18
Nov-18
P/EValuations
Largecaps still at a discount
Nifty 50 P/E Nifty Midcap 100 P/E
Dec-18
Valuations – Marketcap To GDP
Source: BSE, RIMES, Morgan Stanley Research; Data as of Dec 21, 2018; GDP - Gross Domestic Product
80%
71%
93%
60%
65%
70%
75%
80%
85%
90%
95%
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
MarketcaptoGDPratio
Mcap to GDP ratio below 100
2018
2017
2016
The Marketcap to GDP
data has been moderating
on the back of volatile
equity markets and the
slowdown in economic
growth. It is higher
than 2016- but lower
than 2017-levels.
26
Business Cycle – Capacity Utilisation
Source: RBI, JM Financial, Data as of September 2018
12.9
76.1
66
68
70
72
74
76
78
80
-7
-2
3
8
13
Jun-12
Sep-12
Dec-12
Mar-13
Jun-13
Sep-13
Dec-13
Mar-14
Jun-14
Sep-14
Dec-14
Mar-15
Jun-15
Sep-15
Dec-15
Mar-16
Jun-16
Sep-16
Dec-16
Mar-17
Jun-17
Sep-17
Dec-17
Mar-18
Jun-18
Sep-18
RBICapapcityUtilisationLevels(%)
GrossCapitalFormation(%YoY)
Gross capital formation (% YoY) RBI Capacity utilisation levels % (RHS)
Capacity utilisation
picking up but yet to
peak out
27
Business Cycle – Credit Growth outpacing Deposit Growth
Source: RBI, Morgan Stanley; Data as of Dec 21, 2018
15.1%
4.7%
10.6%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Credit Growth
2018
2017
2016
9.4%
14.6%
4.0%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Deposit Growth
2018
2017
2016
28
Sentiment – Mutual Fund flows moderating
Source: AMFI, CLSA, Data as of November 2018;
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Jan-16
Mar-16
May-16
Jul-16
Sep-16
Nov-16
Jan-17
Mar-17
May-17
Jul-17
Sep-17
Nov-17
Jan-18
Mar-18
May-18
Jul-18
Sep-18
Nov-18
DomesticMutualFundFlows(InRs.Bn)
Domestic Mutual Fund Flows (In Rs bn)
Domestic mutual
fund participation
has also tapered off
from its 2017-levels,
indicating a
moderation in
investor sentiment.
29
Sentiment – Hybrid schemes flows Slowing Down
Source: CLSA; Data as of November 30,2018.
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Jan-16
Mar-16
May-16
Jul-16
Sep-16
Nov-16
Jan-17
Mar-17
May-17
Jul-17
Sep-17
Nov-17
Jan-18
Mar-18
May-18
Jul-18
Sep-18
Nov-18
MFinlfows(inRs.Bn)
Monthly Flows into Hybrid Schemes
Hybrid schemes inflows
have been tapering off. At
their peak, they were
nearly half of the equity
inflows.
30
The information contained herein is solely for private circultion for reading/understanding of registered Advisors/Distributors of ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company & should not be circulated to investors/prospective investors.
2019
Triggers
Election
Global trade
war tension Earnings
Triggers For 2019
Reduction of
Bond Buying
Program
31
20,000
22,000
24,000
26,000
28,000
30,000
32,000
Oct-13
Dec-13
Feb-14
Apr-14
Jun-14
Aug-14
Oct-14
Dec-14
Feb-15
Apr-15
S&P BSE Sensex Levels –
General Elections 2014
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
20,000
Oct-08
Dec-08
Feb-09
Apr-09
Jun-09
Aug-09
Oct-09
Dec-09
Feb-10
Apr-10
S&P BSE Sensex Levels –
General Elections 2009
4,000
4,500
5,000
5,500
6,000
6,500
7,000
7,500
Oct-03
Dec-03
Feb-04
Apr-04
Jun-04
Aug-04
Oct-04
Dec-04
Feb-05
Apr-05
S&P BSE Sensex Levels –
General Elections 2004
Trigger – Elections: Good Time to Accumulate Equity
Source: BSE India, Election Commission; Data for the period between October 2003 – April 2005, October 2008 – April 2010, and October 2013 – April 2015. Past performance may or may not be sustained in future.
Pre-election Post-election Pre-election Post-election
Pre-election
Post-election
32
The information contained herein is solely for private circultion for reading/understanding of registered Advisors/Distributors of ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company & should not be circulated to investors/prospective investors.
Triggers – Bond-buying By Central Banks
Back To Normal
891
4,498 4,451 4,040 3,4402,202
2,602
3,865 5,365
5,365
990
2,516
4,108
4,840
4,840
4,082
9,616
12,424
14,244 13,644
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
End 2007 End 2014 End 2016 End 2018 End 2019
Forecast
Bond-buying(inUSDbn)
US Federal Reserve European Central Bank
Bank of Japan Total
2.37%
2.50% 2.63% 2.58%
2.54%
-0.41% -0.41% -0.36% -0.09%
0.21%
-0.05% -0.04% -0.03% -0.02%
-0.01%
-1.0%
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3 months 6 months 1 year 2 years 3 years
InterestRates
Market Expectations of
Future Central Bank Rates
US Federal Reserve European Central Bank
Bank of Japan
Source: Edelweiss Securities; Data as of Dec 31, 2018 Source: Eaton Vance; Data projections made as on Nov 30, 2018
33
The information contained herein is solely for private circultion for reading/understanding of registered Advisors/Distributors of ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company & should not be circulated to investors/prospective investors.
Triggers - US China Trade War Timeline
“Truce but no peace”
Source: South China Morning Post,
Feb
18
Mar
18
Mar
18
Aug
18
Sep
18
Dec
18
Trump takes the
first shot with 30%
tariffs on solar
panels China retaliates this
time with tariffs on
128 US products
China matches tariffs -
Another $16 Billion
worth of tariffs on
US products
Beijing hits Trump's
political base by
targeting select
industries
Both countries agree to
a trade truce in
their meeting at
Buenos Aires, Argentina
Trump takes the second
shot with tariffs on
Steel & Aluminium
Trade war begins
in earnest
Jul
18
Aug
18
Aug
18 Trade talks fall
through
An impasse –
Both parties cancel
scheduled talks
34
Equity & Hybrid Scheme
Recommendations for 2019
35
Summary Equity Outlook - 2019
• Elections – key trigger for 2019 outlook on equities
• Moved to neutral stance from a cautious one; Recommend accumulating equity in a staggered manner through SIP or STP
• Neutral on mid- and smallcap post the recent correction; Recommend adding them systematically
• Asset Allocation funds and large cap oriented schemes preferred choice for lump-sum investment
• Post Oil Correction - Recommend tactical allocation to infrastructure and banking theme.
• Valuations are fully priced in – Aim to explore special themes and bottom up stock picking strategies in 2019
• Remain watchful of impact of reduction in central banks‟ bond-buying programme, earnings trajectory, and escalation of
trade-war tensions between US and China.
• Foreign flows expected to remain positive; Any reversal in these indicators would make us more positive on equities.
36
The information contained herein is solely for private circultion for reading/understanding of registered Advisors/Distributors of ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company & should not be circulated to investors/prospective investors.
Risk To Our Equity Outlook 2019
Risk
2019
37
The information contained herein is solely for private circultion for reading/understanding of registered Advisors/Distributors of ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company & should not be circulated to investors/prospective investors.
Our Asset Allocation Bouquet
These schemes aim to benefit from volatility and manage equity exposure based on valuations.
ICICI Prudential
Regular Savings Fund*
Conservative
Hybrid Fund
Equity
Savings Fund
Dynamic Asset
Allocation or
Balanced
Advantage Fund
Multi Asset
Allocation
Aggressive
Hybrid
ICICI Prudential
Equity Savings Fund
ICICI Prudential
Balanced Advantage Fund
ICICI Prudential
Multi-Asset Fund
ICICI Prudential
Equity & Debt Fund
Net Equity–
10-25%
Net Equity–
15-50%
Net equity –
30-80%
Min of 10% in eachof
the three asset classes
Net Equity–
65-80%
38
The asset allocation and investment strategy will be as per the Scheme Information Document, *This scheme will attract debt taxation.
The information contained herein is solely for private circultion for reading/understanding of registered Advisors/Distributors of ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company & should not be circulated to investors/prospective investors.
ICICI Prudential Balanced Advantage Fund
39
18620
29183
23002
35965
Net Equity
77.40
Net Equity
34.30
Net Equity
77.65
Net Equity
31.65
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
15000
18000
21000
24000
27000
30000
33000
36000
39000
BAFNetEquityExposure(%)
SensexLevels
S&P BSE Sensex Levels vis-a-vis ICICI Prudential BAF Net Equity Exposure (%)
Sensex Level Net Equity Exposure %
Source: BSE India & MFIE, As on 30th November, 2018. ICICI Prudential BAF stands for ICICI Prudential Balanced Advantage Fund. The in-house valuation model starts from March 2010 onwards. The net equity level includes Foreign
equity and Units of equity mutual fund.
The information contained herein is solely for private circultion for reading/understanding of registered Advisors/Distributors of ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company & should not be circulated to investors/prospective investors.
Aims to provide a
hedge against
risks such as
inflation
EQUITY
DEBTGOLD
Potential for capital
appreciation
Aims to offers
accrual income
OPTIMAL
PORTFOLIO
ICICI Prudential Multi-Asset Fund
40
The information contained herein is solely for private circultion for reading/understanding of registered Advisors/Distributors of ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company & should not be circulated to investors/prospective investors.
Equity Scheme Recommendations
41
Lump-sum Pure Equity Schemes
Thematic / Sectoral
ICICI Prudential Bluechip Fund
The scheme predominantly invests in large-cap
stocks. It follows a benchmark hugging approach.
ICICI Prudential Multicap Fund
The scheme invests in stocks across market
capitalisations
ICICI Prudential Infrastructure Fund
These thematic schemes are for investors looking
for exposure in various themes.
ICICI Prudential Banking & Financial Services Fund
ICICI Prudential India Opportunities Fund
The information contained herein is solely for private circultion for reading/understanding of registered Advisors/Distributors of ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company & should not be circulated to investors/prospective investors.
Our SIP Recommendations
42
ICICI Prudential
Value Discovery
Fund
(An open ended equity
scheme following a
value investment strate-
gy)
ICICI Prudential
Large & Midcap
Fund
(An open ended equity
scheme investing in both
largecap and midcap
stocks)
ICICI Prudential
Smallcap Fund
(An open ended equity
scheme predominantly
investing in smallcap
stocks)
ICICI
Prudential
Midcap Fund
(An open ended equity
scheme predominantly
investing in mid cap
stocks)
ICICI Prudential
US Bluechip Equity
Fund
(An open ended equity
scheme investing
predominantly in
securities of large cap
companies listed in the
USA)
433
FIXED INCOME OUTLOOK 2019:
“Earn the Carry”
43
The information contained herein is solely for private circultion for reading/understanding of registered Advisors/Distributors of ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company & should not be circulated to investors/prospective investors.
Rear-View Mirror: Glancing Through 2018 (Debt)
10-yrG-Secyield(%)
6.6
6.8
7.0
7.2
7.6
7.4
7.8
8.0
8.2
8.4
Jan-18
Feb-18
Mar-18
Apr-18
May-18
Jun-18
Jul-18
Aug-18
Sep-18
Oct-18
Nov-18
Dec-18
Govt.
announces
Bank Recap
Union Budget -
Proposes steps
to broaden
bond markets
PNB Bank
detects
frandulent
transactions
RBI keeps
policy
rates
unchanged
RBI removes
min maturity
cap for FPI
Crude
breaches
$ 80/Barrel
CCEA
approves
increase in
MSP
Viral Acharya
expresses
concenrns over
RBI limited power
RBI
Governor -
Urjit Patel
Resigns
IMD Predicts
Normal Monsoon
BJP falls short
of majority
in Karnataka
RBI hikes
rates by 25
bps to 6.25%
RBI steps up OMO
purchases to INR 500 Bn
Congress
wins 3 out
of 5 state
elections
FX
reserves
decline by
most since
2011
RBI Eases liquidity
requirements and
Steps up OMO purchases
Concerns of
Systemic liquidity
risks in the NBFCs
and HFCs
RBI follows up
with one more
25 bps hike
RBI's OMO
purchases
continue with
INR 1.6 Tn
RBI changes
stance to
Calibrated
Tightening
Source: RBI, Reuters, BSE India; Data as of Dec 31, 2018, CCEA- Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs, PNB – Punjab National Bank, OMO – Open Market Operations, IMD-India Meteorological Department.
44
The information contained herein is solely for private circultion for reading/understanding of registered Advisors/Distributors of ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company & should not be circulated to investors/prospective investors.
FPI Investment (Debt) With G-Sec Movement
Source: Deutsche Bank, Morgan Stanley; Data as of Dec 31,2018; FPI – Foreign Portfolio Investors
45
2018 saw heavy
outflows from the
debt market;
however it
stabilized towards
the end of the year
5.5%
6.0%
6.5%
7.0%
7.5%
8.0%
8.5%
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
Dec-15
Feb-16
Apr-16
Jun-16
Aug-16
Oct-16
Dec-16
Feb-17
Apr-17
Jun-17
Aug-17
Oct-17
Dec-17
Feb-18
Apr-18
Jun-18
Aug-18
Oct-18
Dec-18
10-yrG-SecYield
FPIDebtFlows(inUSDBn)
FPI debt flows vs 10-yr G-sec yields
FII Investment (Debt), rhs 10-yr G-sec
The information contained herein is solely for private circultion for reading/understanding of registered Advisors/Distributors of ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company & should not be circulated to investors/prospective investors.
Man to Man Marking – RBI Way
Policy Interest Rate OMO Operations Currency Intervention
Inflation Liquidity Manage Currency Volatility
Policy Instrument
Objective
46
OMO – Open Market Operations
The information contained herein is solely for private circultion for reading/understanding of registered Advisors/Distributors of ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company & should not be circulated to investors/prospective investors.
Side Effects of Man to Man marking strategy
“warranting to keep neutral stance”
RBI Balance Sheet Shifting from Dollar Assets to INR Assets
BuildingINRAssets
DepletingDollarAssets
More OMOs
by RBI
Resulting in
Distortion of
Yield Curve
Increased risks
in investors
portfolios
Less cushion to
take macro shock
RBI supporting INR
on the expense of
Forex Reserve
INR Becoming
Overvalued
Resulting in
higher CAD
Higher dependence
on external savings
(FPI, FDI, NRI Deposits)
Resulting in Higher Volatility Resulting in Higher Volatility
47
CAD – Current Account Deficit, FPI – Foreign Portfolio Investor, FDI – Foreign Direct Investment, OMO – Open Market Operations,
The information contained herein is solely for private circultion for reading/understanding of registered Advisors/Distributors of ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company & should not be circulated to investors/prospective investors.
-
104 103 100
-
200
360
500 500
-
100
200
300
400
500
600
Apr-18
May-18
Jun-18
Jul-18
Aug-18
Sep-18
Oct-18
Nov-18
Dec-18
INR bn
OMO Operations
370
380
390
400
410
420
430
Foreign Reserves (In USD Bn)
Side Effects of Man to Man marking strategy
“warranting to keep neutral stance”
Source: JM Research, Internal Research; Data as of Dec 31, 2018
48
The information contained herein is solely for private circultion for reading/understanding of registered Advisors/Distributors of ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company & should not be circulated to investors/prospective investors.
Growth
Inflation
Central
Bank
Outlook
Advance
Markets
Indian
Market
Strong
Strong
Hawkish
Moderate
Benign
Neutral
Advanced economies being in
the final stages of growth
resorted to quantitative
easing, resulting in growth
headwinds in emerging
markets such as India, where
growth is yet to peak out
India in a Different Cycle -
Warranting Neutral Stance
49
The information contained herein is solely for private circultion for reading/understanding of registered Advisors/Distributors of ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company & should not be circulated to investors/prospective investors.
Mixed Macros “warranting for neutral stance”
Indicators Dec-18 Outlook Remarks
RBI Policy Rates 6.50% Neutral
Upcoming policy ; possibility of moving to Neutral
stance
CPI inflation
2.33%
(Nov 2018)
Neutral Core Inflation still sticky
Oil Prices (USD/barrel) 53.26 Neutral Monitor long term trend
CAD (% of GDP)
2.4%
(Apr-Jun 2018)
Neutral Temporary relief due to crude oil
Fiscal Deficit (% of GDP) 3.30% Negative Fiscal discipline in an election year – Challenging
FX Reserves (USD Bn) 394.15 Negative Depleting - due to RBI supporting INR
10yr G-Sec 7.37% Negative Post G-Sec rally, risk reward benefit lower
Political Scenario Election Year (2019) Cautious Election outcome
Macros Outlook -
Warrant Neutral Stance
Source: MOSPI,RBI, Internal Research; Data as of Dec 31, 2018, CPI – Consumer Price Inflation; CAD – Current Account Deficit; FX – Foreign Exchange; RE –Revised estimate, BE- Budget Estimate; GDP- Gross Domestic Product
50
The information contained herein is solely for private circultion for reading/understanding of registered Advisors/Distributors of ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company & should not be circulated to investors/prospective investors.
Fiscal Deficit In An Election Year
Source: MOSPI, Internal Research; Data as of Dec 31, 2018, RE –Revised estimate, BE- Budget Estimate; GDP – Gross Domestic Product
2.6
6.2 6.7
5.0
5.9
4.9 4.5 4.1 3.9 3.5 3.6 3.3
1.5
2.4
3.0
2.1
1.9
2.0
2.2 2.6 3.1 3.5 3.0
2.64.1
8.6
9.6
7.1
7.8
6.9 6.7 6.7 6.9 7.0
6.6 6.1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY17
FY18RE
FY19BE
FiscalDeficit(as%ofGDP)
Centre States
Maintaining fiscal
discipline seems
challenging, due to
upcoming elections and
revenue shortfall
51
The information contained herein is solely for private circultion for reading/understanding of registered Advisors/Distributors of ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company & should not be circulated to investors/prospective investors.
India Got Lucky: Current Account Deficit (CAD)
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
Sep-02
Mar-03
Sep-03
Mar-04
Sep-04
Mar-05
Sep-05
Mar-06
Sep-06
Mar-07
Sep-07
Mar-08
Sep-08
Mar-09
Sep-09
Mar-10
Sep-10
Mar-11
Sep-11
Mar-12
Sep-12
Mar-13
Sep-13
Mar-14
Sep-14
Mar-15
Sep-15
Mar-16
Sep-16
Mar-17
Sep-17
Mar-18
Sep-18
10YrG-Sec(%)
CAD(%ofGDP)
CAD 10 Yr G-Sec (RHS)
Expected
Source: CRISIL Research, Internal Research; Data as of Sep 30, 2018;
Recent steep decline in
oil prices bodes well
for CAD, especially
since non-oil imports
have remained firm
52
The information contained herein is solely for private circultion for reading/understanding of registered Advisors/Distributors of ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company & should not be circulated to investors/prospective investors.
Some Respite in Trade Deficit
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
8.5
9.0
9.5
10.0-22
-17
-12
-7
-2
Jan-08
Jun-08
Nov-08
Apr-09
Sep-09
Feb-10
Jul-10
Dec-10
May-11
Oct-11
Mar-12
Aug-12
Jan-13
Jun-13
Nov-13
Apr-14
Sep-14
Feb-15
Jul-15
Dec-15
May-16
Oct-16
Mar-17
Aug-17
Jan-18
Jun-18
Nov-18
G-Sec(%)
TradeBalance(InUSDbillions)
Trade Balance GSEC (RHS)
Source: RBI; Data as of Nov 30, 2018;
Trade Deficit remains
elevated despite
improvement.
Exports could see a
drag due to slowdown
in global economy
53
The information contained herein is solely for private circultion for reading/understanding of registered Advisors/Distributors of ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company & should not be circulated to investors/prospective investors.
15
35
55
75
95
115
135
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
8.5
9.0
Jan-11
Jun-11
Nov-11
Apr-12
Sep-12
Feb-13
Jul-13
Dec-13
May-14
Oct-14
Mar-15
Aug-15
Jan-16
Jun-16
Nov-16
Apr-17
Sep-17
Feb-18
Jul-18
Dec-18
BrentCrudeIndex
10YearG-Sec(%)
10 Yr G-Sec Brent Crude Index (RHS)
10 Year G-Sec vs Brent Crude
Source: CRISIL Research, Internal Research; Data as of Dec 31, 2018
G-Sec rally in 2018
was mainly owing to
the sharp decline in
crude oil prices
54
The information contained herein is solely for private circultion for reading/understanding of registered Advisors/Distributors of ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company & should not be circulated to investors/prospective investors.
Food for Thought - Inflation
Source: RBI, Internal Research; Data as of Dec 31, 2018
Unusually low food
prices kept inflation
below RBI forecast.
However, sticky
core inflation and
sudden reversal in
prices of volatile
perishable items
could be a risk.-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
HeadlineInflation(%)
Core Inflation (%) Food Inflation (%)
Fuel and light Inflation (%) Headline Inflation (%), RHS
Inflation Weightages: Core: 47.33% Food: 45.86% Fuel & Light : 8.55%
55
The information contained herein is solely for private circultion for reading/understanding of registered Advisors/Distributors of ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company & should not be circulated to investors/prospective investors.
Liquidity Scenario
Source: RBI, Internal Research; Actual Data as of Nov 30, 2018, * - Estimates
-4,00,000
-3,00,000
-2,00,000
-1,00,000
0
1,00,000
2,00,000
3,00,000
4,00,000
5,00,000
6,00,000 Jan-15
Mar-15
May-15
Jul-15
Sep-15
Nov-15
Jan-16
Mar-16
May-16
Jul-16
Sep-16
Nov-16
Jan-17
Mar-17
May-17
Jul-17
Sep-17
Nov-17
Jan-18
Mar-18
May-18
Jul-18
Sep-18
Nov-18
Jan-19
Mar-19
Amount(inRs.Cr)
System Liquidity Core Liquidity
* *
Liquidity remained in the
deficit zone due to:
• Credit growth
outpacing deposit
growth
• Rise in currency
circulation
• Capital Outflows
(moderated towards
the end of the year)
56
The information contained herein is solely for private circultion for reading/understanding of registered Advisors/Distributors of ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company & should not be circulated to investors/prospective investors.
Dichotomy Between G-Sec & Corporate Bonds
Source: CRISIL Research,; Data as of Dec 31 2018. Past performance may or may not be sustained in future
Date AAA - 1 Yr AAA - 3 Yr AAA - 5 Yr AAA - 10 Yr
2017 7.5 7.7 7.7 7.9
2018 8.4 8.6 8.7 8.7
Movement 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.8
Date AA CB - 1 Yr AA CB - 3 Yr AA CB - 5 Yr AA CB - 10Yr
2017 7.8 8.0 8.2 8.4
2018 9.0 9.2 9.3 9.2
Movement 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.8
Date Gsec - 1 yr Gsec - 3 yr Gsec - 5 yr Gsec - 10 yr
2017 6.3 6.7 7.1 7.3
2018 7.1 7.3 7.5 7.6
Movement 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.3
6.8
7.2
7.6
8.0
8.4
8.8
AAA - 1
Yr
AAA - 3
Yr
AAA - 5
Yr
AAA - 10
Yr
Yields(%)
7.0
7.5
8.0
8.5
9.0
9.5
AA CB -
1 Yr
AA CB -
3 Yr
AA CB -
5 Yr
AA CB -
10 Yr
Yields(%)
6.0
6.4
6.8
7.2
7.6
8.0
Gsec-1yr Gsec-3yr Gsec-5yr Gsec-10yr
Yields(%)
2018
2017
2018
2017
2018
2017
Corporate Bonds still at elevated levels compared to G-Sec
57
The information contained herein is solely for private circultion for reading/understanding of registered Advisors/Distributors of ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company & should not be circulated to investors/prospective investors.
Corporate Bond & Gsec spread over Repo
“High Margin of safety”
Source: CRISIL Research, Internal Research; Data as of Dec 31, 2018
Avg. 270
bps
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
8.5
9.0
9.5
1 Year 3-Year 5-Year 10-Year
Yields(%)
AAA AA Gsec Repo Rate
Avg.
210 bps
Avg. 90
bps
S
P
R
E
A
D
Corporate bonds
provide better risk-
adjusted returns over
G-Sec, as they
provides better
cushion from any
unforeseen event
58
The information contained herein is solely for private circultion for reading/understanding of registered Advisors/Distributors of ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company & should not be circulated to investors/prospective investors.
Historical Corporate Spreads Over Gsec
Source: CRISIL Research, Internal Research; Data as of Dec 31, 2018
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
AAA over
Gsec
AA over AAA A over AAA AA Over Gsec A over AA A over Gsec
Spreads(inbps)
High
Low
Current
Median
Corporate spreads over G-
Sec widened over the last
few quarters as compared to
the 10-yr average. Advocate
accrual strategy to benefit
out of higher carry
59
The information contained herein is solely for private circultion for reading/understanding of registered Advisors/Distributors of ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company & should not be circulated to investors/prospective investors.
Debt Strategy To Follow
Accrual
Schemes
Low/Short
Duration
Schemes
Dynamic
Duration
Schemes
BENEFITS
By capturing current
Elevated Yield
By mitigating interest
rate volatility
From volatility by active
duration management
60
The information contained herein is solely for private circultion for reading/understanding of registered Advisors/Distributors of ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company & should not be circulated to investors/prospective investors.
2019
Triggers
Election
Pre-Election
Populist Measures RBI Stance
Triggers For 2019
61
Global Bond
Yield Movement
Summary Fixed Income Outlook - 2019
• Post the G-Sec rally, recommend going long on low/short duration schemes (belly of the curve) and go short on long duration schemes
(long end of the curve).
• Moved our stance from cautious to neutral.
• Credit demand in the economy is strong and we recommend to benefit the carry from the short end of the yield curve.
• Expect volatility in the long end of the curve and we recommend trading strategy to beat this volatility.
• As from the above statement, it would be clear that we would like to recommend
 Accrual schemes which provide better carry,
 Low/Short duration schemes which can mitigate interest rate volatility
 Dynamic duration schemes which are agile enough to benefit out of interest rate volatility.
• Remain watchful on any fiscal slippages, reversal in any food items which are highly perishable, global uncertainty and escalating trade
tensions between US-China.
62
The information contained herein is solely for private circultion for reading/understanding of registered Advisors/Distributors of ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company & should not be circulated to investors/prospective investors.
Debt Valuation Index
Debt Valuation Index considers WPI, CPI, Sensex YOY returns, Gold YOY returns and Real estate YOY returns over G-Sec yield, Current Account Balance and Crude Oil Movement for calculation. WPI – Wholesale Price Index;
CPI – Consumer Price Index. None of the aforesaid recommendations are based on any assumptions. These are purely for reference and the investors are requested to consult their financial advisors before investing.
63
2.50
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Dec-15
Feb-16
Apr-16
Jun-16
Aug-16
Oct-16
Dec-16
Feb-17
Apr-17
Jun-17
Aug-17
Oct-17
Dec-17
Feb-18
Apr-18
Jun-18
Aug-18
Oct-18
Dec-18
Aggressively in
High Duration
Ultra Low Duration
Low Duration
Moderate Duration
High Duration
We recommend investors to
invest in Ultra Low / Low
Duration schemes or accrual
schemes such as ICICI
Prudential Credit Risk Fund.
For those investors who aim
to benefit from volatility we
recommend investment in
ICICI Prudential All Seasons
Bond Fund.
Fixed Income scheme
recommendations: 2019
64
The information contained herein is solely for private circultion for reading/understanding of registered Advisors/Distributors of ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company & should not be circulated to investors/prospective investors.
Fixed Income Recommendations
ICICI Prudential Floating Interest Fund
Cash Management Solution
(which aims to benefit from better risk adjusted returns)
ICICI Prudential Ultra Short Term Fund
ICICI Prudential Medium Term Bond Fund Accrual Schemes
(which aims to benefit from capturing yields at
elevated levels)ICICI Prudential Credit Risk Fund
ICICI Prudential All Seasons Bond Fund
Dynamic Duration Schemes
( which aims to benefit from volatility by actively managing
duration)
ICICI Prudential Short Term Fund
Low/Short Duration Schemes
(which aims to benefit from mitigating interest rate volatility)
65
The information contained herein is solely for private circultion for reading/understanding of registered Advisors/Distributors of ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company & should not be circulated to investors/prospective investors.
Accrual Based Schemes Investment Process
Well Researched Credit Universe
• Based on various filters, qualitative and quantitative research
Broadened Exposure
• Mitigating concentration risk by diversification
Strict Internal Limits at Issuer Level and rating level
Managing Duration Risk
• Clearly defined modified duration range
The asset allocation and investment strategy will be as per Scheme Information Document. *Direct origination means no involvement of intermediaries.
66
The scheme has an Independent
credit evaluation, approval, and
monitoring process which does
not solely rely on the Fund
Manager‟s judgment to invest in
a paper.
The scheme focuses on direct
origination* which helps in
alpha generation and
monitoring.
The information contained herein is solely for private circultion for reading/understanding of registered Advisors/Distributors of ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company & should not be circulated to investors/prospective investors.
14% in AAA & equivalentrated debt
instruments, TREPS & Net Current
Assets
The portfolio is well
diversified and invests across
various credit ratings ranging
between AAA to A-
Duration Risk reduced by
maintaining modified duration at
the lower-end – current modified
duration – 1.30 yrs
90* different securities with
average exposure of around
1.07% to each individual issuer
Liquidity
Risk
Concentration
Risk
Credit
Risk
Duration
Risk
Mitigating risk – ICICI Prudential Credit Risk Fund
(An open ended debt scheme predominantly investing in AA and below rated corporate bonds
All data as of November 30, 2018 ; *Portfolio includes CPs and CDs; The portfolio of the scheme is subject to changes with in the provisions of the Scheme Information document of the scheme. Please refer to the SID
for investment pattern, strategy and risk factors. The asset allocation and investment strategy will be as per Scheme Information Document. TREPS – Third Party Repos
67
The information contained herein is solely for private circultion for reading/understanding of registered Advisors/Distributors of ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company & should not be circulated to investors/prospective investors.
ICICI Prudential Credit Risk Fund
The scheme portfolio is well-diversified across a large number of securities which
reduces risk pertaining to high exposure in a single security.
10.14% Yield to Maturity
No. of securities in the scheme portfolio
Aims to invest in well researched
corporate bonds
Aims to generate alpha from any potential
credit upgrades
Aims to maintain stable accrual income with
Hold-to-Maturity approach
Average exposure to a single security in
the portfolio
Highest exposure to single security in the
portfolio
Exposure (as % of NAV) to the top 10 holdings
in the portfolio
90
1.07%
5.08%
31.9%
Data as of November 30, 2018; The asset allocation and investment strategy will be as per the Scheme Information Document. The portfolio of the scheme is subject to changes within the provisions of the Scheme
Information document.
68
69
Core comprises of approximately 60%-70% of the
Portfolio. The core is predominantly targeted towards
sectors which are value on a relative or absolute basis.
Core
The Satellite will be blend of strategies such as Special
Situation, GARP (Growth at Reasonable Price) philosophy,
thematic etc. This bucket will be used opportunistically to
book profit and increase weight of the Core Portfolio.
Portfolio Strategy
ICICI Prudential PMS Flexicap Portfolio
A series under “ Aggressive Portfolio”
Satellite
Features of the Portfolio
•Flagship portfolio of ICICI Prudential Portfolio Management Services with a track record of close to 19 years.
•Invests across market capitalizations without any undue concentration in any stock or sectors
•Portfolio follows Core and Satellite approach for portfolio management.
•Aims to invests in sound management, scalable business models and companies have distinctive competitive advantages like pricing power.
Investment Objective:
ICICI Prudential PMS Flexicap Portfolio is a diversified equity portfolio that endeavors to achieve long term capital appreciation and generate
returns by investing across market capitalizations.
The investment strategy, and approach of the portfolio mentioned herein involves risk and there can be no assurance that specific objectives will be met under differing market conditions or
cycles. The investment strategy and the composition of the portfolio as stated herein is only indicative and is subject to change within the provisions of the disclosure document and client
agreement without any prior notice to investors. Please refer to the disclosure document & client agreement for details and risk factors.
70
ICICI Prudential PMS Contra Portfolio
A series under “Deep Value Portfolio”
The investment strategy, approach and the structure of the portfolio herein involves risk and there can be no assurance that specific objectives will be met under differing market conditions or cycles. The investment strategy
and the composition of the portfolio as stated herein is only indicative in nature and is subject to change within the provisions of the disclosure document and client agreement without any prior notice to investors. Please refer
to the disclosure document & client agreement for details and risk factors.
What is Contrarian Investing?
Behavioural Finance View:
• Prices of stocks are pushed by investors to unsustainable levels in both
direction.
• Over reaction by market participants leads to underperformer become
under valued and outperformer become over valued.
Efficient Markets View:
• Prices follow a random walk, though when prices fluctuates to extremes,
they are generally brought back to equilibrium in time.
• Investor behaviour causes market to deviate from fundamental values
creating inefficient markets.
Contra Portfolio
ICICI Prudential PMS Contra Portfolio aims to
provide long term capital appreciation and generate
returns by investing in underperforming stocks or
sectors, which are available at intrinsic valuations and
are expected to perform well in the long run.
With an aim to strike an appropriate balance of
concentration and diversification Portfolio Manager
retains the flexibility to invest across market
capitalization and sectors.
Contrarian Investing: How it works?
Out of the Flavour: Investing into
companies where prevailing
sentiments are not positive.
Avoids: Widespread optimism results in high
valuation that may lead to correction when
valuations are not justified by fundamentals.
Focus: Widespread pessimism about a
company can drive prices low. Prices tend to
overstate the risk and understate the
prospects of recovery.
71
ICICI Prudential PMS Multi-Manager Strategic Equity Portfolio
A series under “Multi Manager Portfolio”
ICICI Prudential PMS Multi-Manager Strategic Equity Portfolio aims to
invest in Mutual Fund schemes which invest in equity and equity
related instrument of a particular sector/theme.
Indicative no of schemes: 3 to 6
Max weight in single scheme: 40%
Portfolio manager may rebalance the portfolio on yearly basis, in order
to make necessary changes in the portfolio. However portfolio
manager reserves the right to rebalance the portfolio at any given
point in time based on change in market conditions.
The investment strategy, approach and the structure of the portfolio herein involves risk and there can be no assurance that specific objectives will be met under differing market conditions or cycles. The investment strategy
and the composition of the portfolio as stated herein is only indicative in nature and is subject to change within the provisions of the disclosure document and client agreement without any prior notice to investors. Please refer
to the disclosure document & client agreement for details and risk factors.
The information contained herein is solely for private circultion for reading/understanding of registered Advisors/Distributors of ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company & should not be circulated to investors/prospective investors.
Upcoming Events - 2019
U.S.
Fed Meetings
Jan. 29–30 | March 19–20
April 30–May 1 | June 18–19
July 30–31| Sept. 17–18
Oct. 29–30 | Dec. 10–11
UK
UK to Leave
European Union
March 29
Cricket World Cup
May 30–July 14
European Union
ECB Meetings
Jan 24 | June 6 | Oct 24
March 7 | July 25 | Dec 12
April 10 | Sept 12
ECB President Mario
Draghi's term ends Oct. 31
Parliamentary elections May 23–26
Argentina
General Election
Oct. 27
South Africa
General Election
Between May 8
and Aug. 7
Australia
Federal Election
By May 18
Indonesia
General Election
April 17
Japan
Bank of Japan Meetings
Jan. 22–23 | April 24–25
July 29–30 | Oct. 30–31
India
General Election
April | May
Canada Federal election
By Oct. 21
Source: BlackRock Investment Institute, November 2018. Notes: The ECB meetings are those accompanied by press conferences. The BoJ events shown are followed by the publication of the central bank’s outlook report.
This map has been used for design and representational purpose only, it does not depict the geographical boundaries of the country. These do not conform to the external boundaries of India recognized by the Survey of India.
72
The information contained herein is solely for private circultion for reading/understanding of registered Advisors/Distributors of ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company & should not be circulated to investors/prospective investors.
Our Equity Schemes
Scheme Name Type of Scheme
ICICI Prudential Bluechip Fund An open ended equity scheme predominantly investing in large cap stocks
ICICI Prudential Large & Mid Cap Fund An open ended equity scheme investing in both large cap and mid cap stocks.
ICICI Prudential Midcap Fund An open ended equity scheme predominantly investing in mid cap stocks.
ICICI Prudential Smallcap Fund An open ended equity scheme predominantly investing in small cap stocks.
ICICI Prudential Value Discovery Fund An open ended equity scheme following a value investment strategy.
ICICI Prudential Multicap Fund An open ended equity scheme investing across large cap, mid cap, small cap
stocks.
ICICI Prudential Infrastructure Fund An open ended equity scheme following infrastructure theme.
ICICI Prudential Banking & Financial Services Fund An open ended equity scheme investing in Banking & Financial Services
Sector
ICICI Prudential India Opportunities Fund An Open Ended Equity Scheme following Special Situation theme
73
The information contained herein is solely for private circultion for reading/understanding of registered Advisors/Distributors of ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company & should not be circulated to investors/prospective investors.
Our Hybrid Schemes
Scheme Name Type of Scheme
ICICI Prudential Balanced Advantage Fund An open ended dynamic asset allocation fund
ICICI Prudential Regular Savings Fund An open ended hybrid scheme investing predominantly in debt instruments
ICICI Prudential Equity Savings Fund
An open ended scheme investing in equity, arbitrage and
debt.
ICICI Prudential Equity & Debt Fund
An open ended hybrid scheme investing predominantly in equity and equity
related instruments
ICICI Prudential Multi-Asset Fund
An open ended scheme investing in Equity, Debt, Gold/Gold ETF/units of
REITs & InvITs and such other asset classes as may be permitted from
time to time.
74
The information contained herein is solely for private circultion for reading/understanding of registered Advisors/Distributors of ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company & should not be circulated to investors/prospective investors.
Our Debt Schemes
Scheme Name Type of Scheme
ICICI Prudential Ultra Short Term Fund
An open ended ultra-short term debt scheme investing in instruments such that the
Macaulay duration* of the portfolio is between 3 months and 6 months.
ICICI Prudential Short Term Fund
An open ended short term debt scheme investing in instruments such that the
Macaulay duration* of the portfolio is between 1 Year and 3 Years.
ICICI Prudential Medium Term Bond Fund
An open ended medium term debt scheme investing in instruments such that the
Macaulay duration* of the portfolio is between 3 Years and 4 Years. The Macaulay
duration of the portfolio is 1 Year to 4 years under anticipated adverse situation.
ICICI Prudential Credit Risk Fund
An open ended debt scheme predominantly investing in AA and below rated corporate
bonds.
ICICI Prudential Floating Interest Fund
An open ended debt scheme predominantly investing in floating rate instruments
(including fixed rate instruments converted to floating rate exposures using
swaps/derivatives).
ICICI Prudential All Seasons Bond Fund An open ended dynamic debt scheme investing across duration.
ICICI Prudential Savings Fund
An open ended low duration debt scheme investing in instruments such that the
Macaulay duration of the portfolio is between 6 months and 12 months.
ICICI Prudential Corporate Bond Fund
An open ended debt scheme predominantly investing in AA+ and above rated
corporate bonds.
ICICI Prudential Gilt Fund An open ended debt scheme investing in government securities across maturity.
75
*The Macaulay Duration is the weighted average term to maturity of the cash flows from a bond. The weight of each cash flow is determined by dividing the present value of the cash flow by the price.
The information contained herein is solely for private circultion for reading/understanding of registered Advisors/Distributors of ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company & should not be circulated to investors/prospective investors.
Riskometers
ICICI Prudential Multi-Asset Fund is suitable for investors who are seeking*:
 Long term wealth creation
 An open ended scheme investing in at least three asset classes with minimum allocation of 10% to each asset class.
*Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them
ICICI Prudential Equity & Debt Fund is suitable for investors who are seeking*:
 Long term wealth creation solution
 A balanced fund aiming for long term capital appreciation and current income by investing in equity as well as fixed
income securities.
*Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them
ICICI Prudential Balanced Advantage Fund is suitable for investors who are seeking*:
 Long term wealth creation solution
 An equity fund that aims for growth by investing in equity and derivatives.
*Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them
76
The information contained herein is solely for private circultion for reading/understanding of registered Advisors/Distributors of ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company & should not be circulated to investors/prospective investors.
Riskometers
ICICI Prudential Bluechip Fund is suitable for investors who are seeking*:
 Long term wealth creation
 An open ended equity scheme predominantly investing in large cap stocks.
*Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for
them
ICICI Prudential Value Discovery Fund is suitable for investors who are seeking*:
 Long term wealth creation
 An open ended equity scheme following a value investment strategy
*Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for
them
ICICI Prudential Large & Mid Cap Fund is suitable for investors who are seeking*:
 Long term wealth creation
 An open ended equity scheme investing in both largecap and mid cap stocks
*Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for
them
77
The information contained herein is solely for private circultion for reading/understanding of registered Advisors/Distributors of ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company & should not be circulated to investors/prospective investors.
Riskometers
ICICI Prudential Credit Risk Fund is suitable for investors who are seeking*:
 Medium term savings
 A debt scheme that aims to generate income through investing predominantly in AA and below rated
corporate bonds while maintaining the optimum balance of yield, safety and liquidity
*Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them
ICICI Prudential Medium Term Bond Fund is suitable for investors who are seeking*:
 Medium term savings
 A debt scheme that invests in debt and money market instruments with a view to maximize income while
maintaining optimum balance of yield, safety and liquidity
*Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them
ICICI Prudential Regular Savings Fund is suitable for investors who are seeking*:
 Medium to long term regular income solution
 A hybrid fund that aims to generate regular income through investments primarily in debt and money market
instruments and long term capital appreciation by investing a portion in equity.
*Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them
78
The information contained herein is solely for private circultion for reading/understanding of registered Advisors/Distributors of ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company & should not be circulated to investors/prospective investors.
Riskometers
ICICI Prudential Short Term Fund is suitable for investors who are seeking*:
 Short term income generation and capital appreciation solution
 A debt fund that aims to generate income by investing in a range of debt and money market instruments of
various maturities.
*Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them
ICICI Prudential All Seasons Bond Fund is suitable for investors who are seeking*:
 All duration savings
 A debt scheme that invests in debt and money market instruments with a view to maximize income while
maintaining optimum balance of yield, safety and liquidity
*Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them
ICICI Prudential Smallcap Fund is suitable for investors who are seeking*:
 Long Term wealth creation
 An open ended equity scheme that seeks to generate capital appreciation by predominantly investing in equity
and equity related securities of small cap companies.
*Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them
79
The information contained herein is solely for private circultion for reading/understanding of registered Advisors/Distributors of ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company & should not be circulated to investors/prospective investors.
Riskometers
ICICI Prudential Floating Interest Fund is suitable for investors who are seeking*:
 Short term savings
 An open ended debt scheme predominantly investing in floating rate instruments
*Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them
ICICI Prudential Ultra Short Term Fund is suitable for investors who are seeking*:
 Short term regular income
 An open ended ultra-short term debt scheme investing in a range of debt and money market instruments
*Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them
ICICI Prudential Midcap Fund is suitable for investors who are seeking*:
 Long Term wealth creation
 An open-ended equity scheme that aims for capital appreciation by investing in diversified mid cap companies.
*Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them
80
The information contained herein is solely for private circultion for reading/understanding of registered Advisors/Distributors of ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company & should not be circulated to investors/prospective investors.
Riskometers
ICICI Prudential Infrastructure Fund is suitable for investors who are seeking:*
 Long term wealth creation
An open-ended equity Scheme that aims for growth by primarily investing in companies belonging to
infrastructure and allied sectors
*Investors should consult their financial advisors if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them.
ICICI Prudential India Opportunities Fund (The scheme is suitable for investors who are seeking*)
 Long term wealth creation
 An equity scheme that invests in stocks based on special situations theme.
*Investors should consult their financial advisors if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them.
ICICI Prudential Banking & Financial Services Fund is suitable for investors who are seeking:*
 Long term wealth creation
An open-ended equity Scheme that that predominantly invests in equity and equity related securities of
companies engaged in banking and financial services
*Investors should consult their financial advisors if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them.
81
The information contained herein is solely for private circultion for reading/understanding of registered Advisors/Distributors of ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company & should not be circulated to investors/prospective investors.
Riskometers
ICICI Prudential Equity Savings Fund is suitable for investors who are seeking*:
 Long term wealth creation
 An open ended scheme that seeks to generate regular income through investments in fixed income securities,
arbitrage and other derivative strategies and aim for long term capital appreciation by investing in equity and
equity related instruments.
*Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them
ICICI Prudential Multicap Fund is suitable for investors who are seeking*:
 Long term wealth creation
 An open ended equity scheme investing across largecap, mid cap and small cap stocks.
*Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them
ICICI Prudential US Bluechip Equity Fund is suitable for investors who are seeking*:
 Long term wealth creation
 An open ended equity scheme primarily investing in equity and equity related securities of companies listed on recognized stock
exchanges in the United States of America
*Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them
82
The information contained herein is solely for private circultion for reading/understanding of registered Advisors/Distributors of ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company & should not be circulated to investors/prospective investors.
Riskometers
ICICI Prudential Savings Fund is suitable for investors who are seeking*:
 Short term savings
 An open ended low duration debt scheme that aims to maximize income by investing in debt and money market
instruments while maintaining optimum balance of yield, safety and liquidity
*Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them.
ICICI Prudential Corporate Bond Fund is suitable for investors who are seeking*:
 Short term savings
 An open ended debt scheme predominantly investing in highest rated corporate bonds.
*Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them.
ICICI Prudential Gilt Fund is suitable for investors who are seeking*:
 Long term wealth creation
 A Gilt scheme that aims to generate income through investment in Gilts of various maturities.
*Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them.
83
The information contained herein is solely for private circultion for reading/understanding of registered Advisors/Distributors of ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company & should not be circulated to investors/prospective investors.
Disclaimer
Mutual Fund investments are subject to market risks, read all scheme related documents carefully.
All figures and other data given in this document are dated. The same may or may not be relevant at a future date. The AMC takes no responsibility of updating any data/information in this material from
time to time. The information shall not be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed, in part or in whole, to any other person or to the media or reproduced in any form, without prior written
consent of ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company Limited. Prospective investors are advised to consult their own legal, tax and financial advisors to determine possible tax, legal and other finan-
cial implication or consequence of subscribing to the units of ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund. Past Performance may or may not be sustained in future.
Disclaimer: In the preparation of the material contained in this document, ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company Ltd. (the AMC) has used information that is publicly available, including informa-
tion developed in-house. The stock(s)/sector(s) mentioned in this slide do not constitute any recommendation and ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund may or may not have any future position in this stock(s).
Some of the material used in the document may have been obtained from members/persons other than the AMC and/or its affiliates and which may have been made available to the AMC and/or to its
affiliates. Information gathered and material used in this document is believed to be from reliable sources. The AMC however does not warrant the accuracy, reasonableness and / or completeness of
any information. We have included statements / opinions / recommendations in this document, which contain words, or phrases such as “will”, “expect”, “should”, “believe” and similar expressions or
variations of such expressions, that are “forward looking statements”. Actual results may differ materially from those suggested by the forward looking statements due to risk or uncertainties associated
with our expectations with respect to, but not limited to, exposure to market risks, general economic and political conditions in India and other countries globally, which have an impact on our services
and / or investments, the monetary and interest policies of India, inflation, deflation, unanticipated turbulence in interest rates, foreign exchange rates, equity prices or other rates or prices etc. ICICI
Prudential Asset Management Company Limited (including its affiliates), the Mutual Fund, The Trust and any of its officers, directors, personnel and employees, shall not liable for any loss, damage of
any nature, including but not limited to direct, indirect, punitive, special, exemplary, consequential, as also any loss of profit in any way arising from the use of this material in any manner. Further, the
information contained herein should not be construed as forecast or promise or investment advice. The recipient alone shall be fully responsible/are liable for any decision taken on this material.
84
The information contained herein is solely for private circultion for reading/understanding of registered Advisors/Distributors of ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company & should not be circulated to investors/prospective investors.
Solution to the Puzzle - "The Theme for the
Investment Outlook 2019”
H A L T
H I N T
C A C T U S
C A P E X
S U M M O N
C A U S E
H U M A N
- A Thorny Plant
- Another word for „STOP‟
- Short for Capital Expenditure
- To err is to be _____
- A Clue
- _____ and Effect
- To Call
O NITA C C U M U L A
H EP A S
85
“With valuations priced in and
equity indicators entering the
moderate zone, we believe
investing is now in the
____________ _____.”

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Market Outlook 2019 - Our Annual Investment View

  • 2. Rear-View Mirror: Glancing Through 2018 (Equity) Source: Reuters, Morgan Stanley, Washington Post, Internal Research; Data as of Dec 31, 2018 2 Union Budget - Introduces LTCG on Equities Crude breaches $ 80/Barrel Mutual Fund Scheme Categorization & Rationalisation 35,000 34,000 33,000 32,000 37,000 36,000 38,000 39,000 40,000 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 S&PBSESensexLevels Trade War begins in Earnest No Confidence motion against NDA govt. held Congress wins 3 out of 5 state elections Concerns of Systemic liquidity risks in the NBFCs and HFCs India's rank in ease of doing business imporves from 100 to 77 Trump takes the first shot on Tariffs Kim Jong Un crossed the border to meet South Korean president US China trade war intensifies FAANGs starts to correct China's growth slowest pace over a decade Head of auto giant Nissan-Renault- Mitsubishi arrested EU and UK agreed on an accord for Britain’s exit HUAWEI CFO arrested in Canada Powell does not buckle & increases interest rates
  • 3. Recap: Our Calls In 2018 3 Redeem money from Midcap and SmallCap Buy Accrual Schemes Invest in low duration schemes Invest in Gold in a staggered manner Invest in Asset Allocation & Large Cap Oriented Schemes Muted returns for last 5 Years Markets expected to be volatile and Large cap available at a better discount Valuation expensive & risk reward benefit not favourable Budget positive for Credit category Trade tensions, Unwinding of QE* by central banks & Oil price volatility Our Calls Rationale Recap QE – Quantitative Easing
  • 4. The information contained herein is solely for private circultion for reading/understanding of registered Advisors/Distributors of ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company & should not be circulated to investors/prospective investors. Portfolio Action based on our calls – Mid- and Smallcap In 2018 Mid Year Allocation : Aug 31, 2018; Past performance may or may not sustain in future. The asset allocation and investment strategy will be as per the Scheme Information Document Large Cap (86%) Midcap (10%) Smallcap (4%) ICICI Prudential Multicap Fund Large Cap (83%) Midcap (11%) Smallcap (6%) ICICI Prudential Value Discovery Fund Started moving to Large caps by cutting down on mid- and smallcap; Our mid-year asset allocation in flexible schemes was skewed towards largecaps 4
  • 5. The information contained herein is solely for private circultion for reading/understanding of registered Advisors/Distributors of ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company & should not be circulated to investors/prospective investors. Portfolio Action based on our calls – Move to Debt In 2018 Midyear Allocation - Aug 31, 2018; Past performance may or may not sustain in future. The asset allocation and investment strategy will be as per the Scheme Information Document. ICICI Prudential Balanced Advantage Fund 30-80 30 ICICI Prudential Equity & Debt Fund 65-80 60 ICICI Prudential Multi-Asset Fund 10-80 47 ICICI Prudential Equity Savings Fund 15-50 15 Net Equity Levels (%) under normal circumstances August Net Equity Levels (%) Expecting markets to be volatile, we moved towards debt in our asset allocation schemes. Our midyear allocation shows low net equity levels. 5
  • 6. The information contained herein is solely for private circultion for reading/understanding of registered Advisors/Distributors of ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company & should not be circulated to investors/prospective investors. Portfolio Action based on our Calls – Reducing Duration In 2018 Data as of Aug 31, 2018; Past performance may or may not sustain in future. Scheme Name Modified Duration (in years) Aug 2017 Aug 2018 ICICI Prudential Gilt Fund 10.13 0.14 ICICI Prudential All Seasons Bond Fund 6.41 1.22 ICICI Prudential Medium Term Bond Fund 2.97 1.61 ICICI Prudential Ultra Short Term Fund 0.96 0.28 ICICI Prudential Credit Risk Fund 2.12 1.51 ICICI Prudential Floating Interest Fund 1.14 0.46 ICICI Prudential Short Term Fund 2.74 1.17 ICICI Prudential Corporate Bond Fund 2.11 1.15 ICICI Prudential Savings Fund 0.88 0.53 6
  • 8. Global Indices Performance in CY2018 (In INR terms) Source: MFI Explorer,BRAZIL - Ibovespa Sao Paulo Index, INDIA – S&P BSE Sensex, INDONESIA – Jakarta Composite Index, US – NASDAQ, RUSSIA – RTS Index, TAIWAN – Taiwan Weighted Index, SINGAPORE – Strait Times, JAPAN – Nikkei, SWITZERLAND - Swiss Market Index, FRANCE – CAC 40 Index, UK – FTSE 100, HONG KONG – Hang Seng, SOUTH KOREA – Kospi, GERMANY – DAX Index, CHINA – SSE Composite Index ; Data as on Dec 31, 2018; Past performance may or may not sustain in future; Returns are in absolute terms. Map source: mapchart.net.Map not to scale. This map has been used for design and representational purpose only, it does not depict the geographical boundaries of the country. These do not conform to the external boundaries of India recognized by the Survey of India. 8 SWITZERLAND (-12.6%) FRANCE (-13.4%) UK (-14.3%) HONG KONG (-14.8%) SOUTH KOREA (-17.3%) GERMANY (-19.6%) CHINA (-24.6%) JAPAN (-12.1%) SINGAPORE (-10.3%) TAIWAN (-8.6%) RUSSIA (-8.5%) US (-4.7%) INDONESIA (-2.5%) INDIA (5.9%) BRAZIL (11.9%)
  • 9. US Rate Hikes and Global Yields Source: Source: CRISIL Research; Data as of Dec 28, 2018 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 India China USA UK Euro Zone Japan Yield(%) Global Yield Movement Dec-18 1 month ago 12 months ago 9 2.2 2.4 2.6 2.8 3.0 3.2 3.4 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 UStreasuryyields(%) US Federal Reserve (The Fed) hiked rates by 25 bps for the sixth time since 2015 The Fed hiked rates again by 25 bps on the back of improving jobs data and robust growth prospects The Fed hiked rates by 25 bps for the third time in 2018 The Fed hiked rates by 25 bps for the fourth time in 2018; markets reacted sharply to the news with the US markets recording its worst Christmas-eve trade in a decade
  • 10. Currencies Across The World in CY2018 Source: CRISIL Research; Data as of Dec 28, 2018 Stronger-than-expected US growth momentum in 2018 prevented currencies across the world from capitalising on the gains made against the USD in 2017 2.1 0.1 0.0 -0.2 -2.3 -2.7 -3.3 -4.5 -4.9 -4.9 -5.6 -5.7 -6.4 -7.5 -9.5 -16.6-17.0 -20.6 -38.8 -45 -40 -35 -30 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 Japan Thailand USA HongKong Singapore Malaysia Taiwan SouthKorea Germany EuroZone Philiphines China UK Indonesia India SouthAfrica Brazil Russia Turkey %changetotheUSD Currencies against the USD 10
  • 12. Largecap, Midcap, Smallcap Source: BSEIndia; Data as of Dec 31, 2018; Past performance may or may not be sustained in future; Returns are in Absolute terms and are based on the PRI variant of the indices. 1.9 27.5 5.1 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 2016 2017 2018 S&PBSESensexReturns(%) 8.0 46.1 -14.6 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 2016 2017 2018 S&PMidcapReturns(%) 1.8 57.7 -24.7 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 2016 2017 2018 S&PBSESmallcapReturns(%) S&P BSE Sensex Closed at 36,068 S&P BSE Midcap Closed at 15,438 S&P BSE Smallcap Closed at 14,706 12
  • 13. Consumption and export story played out in 2018 Source: BSEIndia; Data as of Dec 27, 2018; Past performance may or may not be sustained in future. Returns are in Absolute terms and are based on the PRI variant of the indices. IT, FMCG, and Bankex were the only indices to witness gains in 2018 -22.6 4.1 -20.9 -2.8 0.1 0.7 9.8 -6.5 -22.7-20.2 24.5 -22.5 -17.1 -22.1 -31.0 -40.5 -15.7 -50.0 -40.0 -30.0 -20.0 -10.0 0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 Returnsperformance(%) Sector performance 2018 13
  • 14. The Nifty‟s Narrow Rally in 2018 Source: NSEIndia; Data as of Dec 27, 2018; Past performance may or may not be sustained in future. The stock(s)/sector(s) mentioned in this slide do not constitute any recommendation and ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund may or may not have any future position in this stock(s). 11.3 16.3 16.6 18.5 20.2 23.0 28.3 37.2 39.3 43.1 0 10 20 30 40 50 HDFC Bank Reliance Industries Asian Paints Bajaj Finserv Kotak Mahindra Bank Infosys Hindustan Unilever Tech Mahindra TCS Bajaj Finance Returns (%) Nifty 50 rally was largely sustained by a few select stocks. 14
  • 15. DII compensated for FPI selling in CY2018 Source: NSDL, BSEIndia; Data as of Dec 31, 2018; FPI – Foreign Portfolio Investors; DII – Domestic Institutional Investors 15 -40,000 -30,000 -20,000 -10,000 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 Jan-Mar2016 Apr-Jun2016 Jul-Sep2016 Oct-Dec2016 Jan-Mar2017 Apr-Jun2017 Jul-Sep2017 Oct-Dec2017 Jan-Mar2018 Apr-Jun2018 Jul-Sep2018 Oct-Dec2018 Netflows(inRs.Cr) FPI Net Flows (in Rs. Cr) DII Net Flows (in Rs. Cr)
  • 16. Markets in 2018 – Some Unexpected Events 16 Markets in 2018 – Some Unexpected Events
  • 17. The information contained herein is solely for private circultion for reading/understanding of registered Advisors/Distributors of ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company & should not be circulated to investors/prospective investors. Oil - The Joker In The Pack 17 Crude oil prices, largely expected to remain high, lost momentum towards the end of the year slipping to USD 50/bbl – owing to OPEC‟s decision to ease supply Source: CRISIL Research, Data as of Dec 28, 2018; OPEC – Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries 63.25 59.92 77.2 85.83 50.47 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 Jan-18 Mar-18 May-18 Jul-18 Sep-18 Nov-18 OilPirces(inUSD/bbl) Dec-18
  • 18. The information contained herein is solely for private circultion for reading/understanding of registered Advisors/Distributors of ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company & should not be circulated to investors/prospective investors. The Bitcoin Nose-dive Source: Coinmarketcap.com; Data as of Dec 24, 2018; Past performance may or may not be sustained in future. 1,316 6,358 19,497 9,744 3,546 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 Apr-17 Jun-17 Aug-17 Oct-17 Dec-17 Feb-18 Apr-18 Jun-18 Aug-18 Oct-18 Bitcoinprices(inUSD) Dec-18 Year 2018 was marked by the collapse of the crypto-currency which saw a meteoric rise in 2017 and early 2018 18
  • 19. The information contained herein is solely for private circultion for reading/understanding of registered Advisors/Distributors of ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company & should not be circulated to investors/prospective investors. Invincible FAANG‟s in the Bear Grip Source: Reuters; Data as of Dec 24, 2018; Past performance may or may not be sustained in future.. 120 170 220 270 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Prices(inUSD) Facebook 1100 1300 1500 1700 1900 2100 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Prices(inUSD) Amazon 140 190 240 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May… Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Prices(inUSD) Apple 180 230 280 330 380 430 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Prices(inUSD) Netflix 980 1080 1180 1280 1380 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Prices(inUSD) Google 19
  • 20. Equity Investment Outlook 2019: Accumulation Phase 20
  • 21. Puzzle To Unlock The Theme for Outlook 2019 (Solution to the puzzle is at the end of the presentation) 21 - A Thorny Plant - Another word for „STOP‟ - Short for Capital Expenditure - To err is to be _____ - A Clue - _____ and Effect - To Call “With valuations priced in and equity indicators entering the moderate zone, we believe investing is now in the ____________ _____.” WORD JUMBLE – Unscramble the words below using the clues given alongside Now rearrange the circled letters and complete the statement below to unlock the theme for the INVESTMENT OUTLOOK 2019
  • 22. Market Checklist - „VCTS‟ Back To The Neutral Zone P/E – Price-to-Earnings; P/B – Price to Book Value Ratio; MF – Mutual Funds; FPI – Foreign Portfolio Investors; GDP – Gross Domestic Product. 22
  • 23. The information contained herein is solely for private circultion for reading/understanding of registered Advisors/Distributors of ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company & should not be circulated to investors/prospective investors. In-House Equity Valuation Index: Back to the Neutral Zone The Valuation Index indicates that investors could consider asset allocation schemes. Equity Valuation index is calculated by assigning equal weights to Price-to-Earnings (PE), Price-to-Book (PB), G-Sec*PE and Market Cap to GDP ratio. G-Sec – Government Securities. GDP – Gross Domestic Product; Asset Allocation – Schemes that invest both in equity and fixed income 23 110.44 50 70 90 110 130 150 170 Dec-05 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Invest in Equities Aggressively invest in Equities Asset Allocation Incremental Money to Debt Book Partial Profits
  • 24. Valuations – P/E and P/B within comfort zone Source: NSE India; Data as of Dec 27, 2018; P/E – Price to Earnings; P/B – Price to Book Value ; SD – Standard Deviation 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 Jan-04 Oct-04 Jul-05 Apr-06 Jan-07 Oct-07 Jul-08 Apr-09 Jan-10 Oct-10 Jul-11 Apr-12 Jan-13 Oct-13 Jul-14 Apr-15 Jan-16 Oct-16 Jul-17 Apr-18 P/EValuations Nifty 50 P/E Valuations Nifty 50 Trailing PE Average -1 SD +/- 1SD 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5 5.5 6 Jan-04 Oct-04 Jul-05 Apr-06 Jan-07 Oct-07 Jul-08 Apr-09 Jan-10 Oct-10 Jul-11 Apr-12 Jan-13 Oct-13 Jul-14 Apr-15 Jan-16 Oct-16 Jul-17 Apr-18 P/Bratio Nifty 50 P/B ratio Nifty 50 P/B ratio Average -1 SD +/- 1SD Dec-18 Dec-18 24
  • 25. Valuations – Largecap & Midcap discount and Dividend Yield Source: NSE India, CRISIL Research; Data as of Dec 28, 2018 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 (5) (2) 1 4 7 10 Dec-02 Dec-04 Dec-06 Dec-08 Dec-10 Dec-12 Dec-14 Dec-16 Dec-18 10-yrG-secyield(%) Nifty50earningsyield(%) G-Sec yield reasonable over earnings yields but has come off highs Yield gap Earnings Yield India 10Y G-sec yield 25 22.0 43.8 18 23 28 33 38 43 48 53 58 63 Jan-18 Mar-18 May-18 Jul-18 Sep-18 Nov-18 P/EValuations Largecaps still at a discount Nifty 50 P/E Nifty Midcap 100 P/E Dec-18
  • 26. Valuations – Marketcap To GDP Source: BSE, RIMES, Morgan Stanley Research; Data as of Dec 21, 2018; GDP - Gross Domestic Product 80% 71% 93% 60% 65% 70% 75% 80% 85% 90% 95% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec MarketcaptoGDPratio Mcap to GDP ratio below 100 2018 2017 2016 The Marketcap to GDP data has been moderating on the back of volatile equity markets and the slowdown in economic growth. It is higher than 2016- but lower than 2017-levels. 26
  • 27. Business Cycle – Capacity Utilisation Source: RBI, JM Financial, Data as of September 2018 12.9 76.1 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 -7 -2 3 8 13 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 Dec-17 Mar-18 Jun-18 Sep-18 RBICapapcityUtilisationLevels(%) GrossCapitalFormation(%YoY) Gross capital formation (% YoY) RBI Capacity utilisation levels % (RHS) Capacity utilisation picking up but yet to peak out 27
  • 28. Business Cycle – Credit Growth outpacing Deposit Growth Source: RBI, Morgan Stanley; Data as of Dec 21, 2018 15.1% 4.7% 10.6% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Credit Growth 2018 2017 2016 9.4% 14.6% 4.0% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Deposit Growth 2018 2017 2016 28
  • 29. Sentiment – Mutual Fund flows moderating Source: AMFI, CLSA, Data as of November 2018; -50 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 Jan-16 Mar-16 May-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 Nov-16 Jan-17 Mar-17 May-17 Jul-17 Sep-17 Nov-17 Jan-18 Mar-18 May-18 Jul-18 Sep-18 Nov-18 DomesticMutualFundFlows(InRs.Bn) Domestic Mutual Fund Flows (In Rs bn) Domestic mutual fund participation has also tapered off from its 2017-levels, indicating a moderation in investor sentiment. 29
  • 30. Sentiment – Hybrid schemes flows Slowing Down Source: CLSA; Data as of November 30,2018. 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 Jan-16 Mar-16 May-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 Nov-16 Jan-17 Mar-17 May-17 Jul-17 Sep-17 Nov-17 Jan-18 Mar-18 May-18 Jul-18 Sep-18 Nov-18 MFinlfows(inRs.Bn) Monthly Flows into Hybrid Schemes Hybrid schemes inflows have been tapering off. At their peak, they were nearly half of the equity inflows. 30
  • 31. The information contained herein is solely for private circultion for reading/understanding of registered Advisors/Distributors of ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company & should not be circulated to investors/prospective investors. 2019 Triggers Election Global trade war tension Earnings Triggers For 2019 Reduction of Bond Buying Program 31
  • 32. 20,000 22,000 24,000 26,000 28,000 30,000 32,000 Oct-13 Dec-13 Feb-14 Apr-14 Jun-14 Aug-14 Oct-14 Dec-14 Feb-15 Apr-15 S&P BSE Sensex Levels – General Elections 2014 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000 20,000 Oct-08 Dec-08 Feb-09 Apr-09 Jun-09 Aug-09 Oct-09 Dec-09 Feb-10 Apr-10 S&P BSE Sensex Levels – General Elections 2009 4,000 4,500 5,000 5,500 6,000 6,500 7,000 7,500 Oct-03 Dec-03 Feb-04 Apr-04 Jun-04 Aug-04 Oct-04 Dec-04 Feb-05 Apr-05 S&P BSE Sensex Levels – General Elections 2004 Trigger – Elections: Good Time to Accumulate Equity Source: BSE India, Election Commission; Data for the period between October 2003 – April 2005, October 2008 – April 2010, and October 2013 – April 2015. Past performance may or may not be sustained in future. Pre-election Post-election Pre-election Post-election Pre-election Post-election 32
  • 33. The information contained herein is solely for private circultion for reading/understanding of registered Advisors/Distributors of ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company & should not be circulated to investors/prospective investors. Triggers – Bond-buying By Central Banks Back To Normal 891 4,498 4,451 4,040 3,4402,202 2,602 3,865 5,365 5,365 990 2,516 4,108 4,840 4,840 4,082 9,616 12,424 14,244 13,644 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 End 2007 End 2014 End 2016 End 2018 End 2019 Forecast Bond-buying(inUSDbn) US Federal Reserve European Central Bank Bank of Japan Total 2.37% 2.50% 2.63% 2.58% 2.54% -0.41% -0.41% -0.36% -0.09% 0.21% -0.05% -0.04% -0.03% -0.02% -0.01% -1.0% -0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3 months 6 months 1 year 2 years 3 years InterestRates Market Expectations of Future Central Bank Rates US Federal Reserve European Central Bank Bank of Japan Source: Edelweiss Securities; Data as of Dec 31, 2018 Source: Eaton Vance; Data projections made as on Nov 30, 2018 33
  • 34. The information contained herein is solely for private circultion for reading/understanding of registered Advisors/Distributors of ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company & should not be circulated to investors/prospective investors. Triggers - US China Trade War Timeline “Truce but no peace” Source: South China Morning Post, Feb 18 Mar 18 Mar 18 Aug 18 Sep 18 Dec 18 Trump takes the first shot with 30% tariffs on solar panels China retaliates this time with tariffs on 128 US products China matches tariffs - Another $16 Billion worth of tariffs on US products Beijing hits Trump's political base by targeting select industries Both countries agree to a trade truce in their meeting at Buenos Aires, Argentina Trump takes the second shot with tariffs on Steel & Aluminium Trade war begins in earnest Jul 18 Aug 18 Aug 18 Trade talks fall through An impasse – Both parties cancel scheduled talks 34
  • 35. Equity & Hybrid Scheme Recommendations for 2019 35
  • 36. Summary Equity Outlook - 2019 • Elections – key trigger for 2019 outlook on equities • Moved to neutral stance from a cautious one; Recommend accumulating equity in a staggered manner through SIP or STP • Neutral on mid- and smallcap post the recent correction; Recommend adding them systematically • Asset Allocation funds and large cap oriented schemes preferred choice for lump-sum investment • Post Oil Correction - Recommend tactical allocation to infrastructure and banking theme. • Valuations are fully priced in – Aim to explore special themes and bottom up stock picking strategies in 2019 • Remain watchful of impact of reduction in central banks‟ bond-buying programme, earnings trajectory, and escalation of trade-war tensions between US and China. • Foreign flows expected to remain positive; Any reversal in these indicators would make us more positive on equities. 36
  • 37. The information contained herein is solely for private circultion for reading/understanding of registered Advisors/Distributors of ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company & should not be circulated to investors/prospective investors. Risk To Our Equity Outlook 2019 Risk 2019 37
  • 38. The information contained herein is solely for private circultion for reading/understanding of registered Advisors/Distributors of ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company & should not be circulated to investors/prospective investors. Our Asset Allocation Bouquet These schemes aim to benefit from volatility and manage equity exposure based on valuations. ICICI Prudential Regular Savings Fund* Conservative Hybrid Fund Equity Savings Fund Dynamic Asset Allocation or Balanced Advantage Fund Multi Asset Allocation Aggressive Hybrid ICICI Prudential Equity Savings Fund ICICI Prudential Balanced Advantage Fund ICICI Prudential Multi-Asset Fund ICICI Prudential Equity & Debt Fund Net Equity– 10-25% Net Equity– 15-50% Net equity – 30-80% Min of 10% in eachof the three asset classes Net Equity– 65-80% 38 The asset allocation and investment strategy will be as per the Scheme Information Document, *This scheme will attract debt taxation.
  • 39. The information contained herein is solely for private circultion for reading/understanding of registered Advisors/Distributors of ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company & should not be circulated to investors/prospective investors. ICICI Prudential Balanced Advantage Fund 39 18620 29183 23002 35965 Net Equity 77.40 Net Equity 34.30 Net Equity 77.65 Net Equity 31.65 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 15000 18000 21000 24000 27000 30000 33000 36000 39000 BAFNetEquityExposure(%) SensexLevels S&P BSE Sensex Levels vis-a-vis ICICI Prudential BAF Net Equity Exposure (%) Sensex Level Net Equity Exposure % Source: BSE India & MFIE, As on 30th November, 2018. ICICI Prudential BAF stands for ICICI Prudential Balanced Advantage Fund. The in-house valuation model starts from March 2010 onwards. The net equity level includes Foreign equity and Units of equity mutual fund.
  • 40. The information contained herein is solely for private circultion for reading/understanding of registered Advisors/Distributors of ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company & should not be circulated to investors/prospective investors. Aims to provide a hedge against risks such as inflation EQUITY DEBTGOLD Potential for capital appreciation Aims to offers accrual income OPTIMAL PORTFOLIO ICICI Prudential Multi-Asset Fund 40
  • 41. The information contained herein is solely for private circultion for reading/understanding of registered Advisors/Distributors of ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company & should not be circulated to investors/prospective investors. Equity Scheme Recommendations 41 Lump-sum Pure Equity Schemes Thematic / Sectoral ICICI Prudential Bluechip Fund The scheme predominantly invests in large-cap stocks. It follows a benchmark hugging approach. ICICI Prudential Multicap Fund The scheme invests in stocks across market capitalisations ICICI Prudential Infrastructure Fund These thematic schemes are for investors looking for exposure in various themes. ICICI Prudential Banking & Financial Services Fund ICICI Prudential India Opportunities Fund
  • 42. The information contained herein is solely for private circultion for reading/understanding of registered Advisors/Distributors of ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company & should not be circulated to investors/prospective investors. Our SIP Recommendations 42 ICICI Prudential Value Discovery Fund (An open ended equity scheme following a value investment strate- gy) ICICI Prudential Large & Midcap Fund (An open ended equity scheme investing in both largecap and midcap stocks) ICICI Prudential Smallcap Fund (An open ended equity scheme predominantly investing in smallcap stocks) ICICI Prudential Midcap Fund (An open ended equity scheme predominantly investing in mid cap stocks) ICICI Prudential US Bluechip Equity Fund (An open ended equity scheme investing predominantly in securities of large cap companies listed in the USA)
  • 43. 433 FIXED INCOME OUTLOOK 2019: “Earn the Carry” 43
  • 44. The information contained herein is solely for private circultion for reading/understanding of registered Advisors/Distributors of ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company & should not be circulated to investors/prospective investors. Rear-View Mirror: Glancing Through 2018 (Debt) 10-yrG-Secyield(%) 6.6 6.8 7.0 7.2 7.6 7.4 7.8 8.0 8.2 8.4 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Govt. announces Bank Recap Union Budget - Proposes steps to broaden bond markets PNB Bank detects frandulent transactions RBI keeps policy rates unchanged RBI removes min maturity cap for FPI Crude breaches $ 80/Barrel CCEA approves increase in MSP Viral Acharya expresses concenrns over RBI limited power RBI Governor - Urjit Patel Resigns IMD Predicts Normal Monsoon BJP falls short of majority in Karnataka RBI hikes rates by 25 bps to 6.25% RBI steps up OMO purchases to INR 500 Bn Congress wins 3 out of 5 state elections FX reserves decline by most since 2011 RBI Eases liquidity requirements and Steps up OMO purchases Concerns of Systemic liquidity risks in the NBFCs and HFCs RBI follows up with one more 25 bps hike RBI's OMO purchases continue with INR 1.6 Tn RBI changes stance to Calibrated Tightening Source: RBI, Reuters, BSE India; Data as of Dec 31, 2018, CCEA- Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs, PNB – Punjab National Bank, OMO – Open Market Operations, IMD-India Meteorological Department. 44
  • 45. The information contained herein is solely for private circultion for reading/understanding of registered Advisors/Distributors of ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company & should not be circulated to investors/prospective investors. FPI Investment (Debt) With G-Sec Movement Source: Deutsche Bank, Morgan Stanley; Data as of Dec 31,2018; FPI – Foreign Portfolio Investors 45 2018 saw heavy outflows from the debt market; however it stabilized towards the end of the year 5.5% 6.0% 6.5% 7.0% 7.5% 8.0% 8.5% -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 Dec-15 Feb-16 Apr-16 Jun-16 Aug-16 Oct-16 Dec-16 Feb-17 Apr-17 Jun-17 Aug-17 Oct-17 Dec-17 Feb-18 Apr-18 Jun-18 Aug-18 Oct-18 Dec-18 10-yrG-SecYield FPIDebtFlows(inUSDBn) FPI debt flows vs 10-yr G-sec yields FII Investment (Debt), rhs 10-yr G-sec
  • 46. The information contained herein is solely for private circultion for reading/understanding of registered Advisors/Distributors of ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company & should not be circulated to investors/prospective investors. Man to Man Marking – RBI Way Policy Interest Rate OMO Operations Currency Intervention Inflation Liquidity Manage Currency Volatility Policy Instrument Objective 46 OMO – Open Market Operations
  • 47. The information contained herein is solely for private circultion for reading/understanding of registered Advisors/Distributors of ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company & should not be circulated to investors/prospective investors. Side Effects of Man to Man marking strategy “warranting to keep neutral stance” RBI Balance Sheet Shifting from Dollar Assets to INR Assets BuildingINRAssets DepletingDollarAssets More OMOs by RBI Resulting in Distortion of Yield Curve Increased risks in investors portfolios Less cushion to take macro shock RBI supporting INR on the expense of Forex Reserve INR Becoming Overvalued Resulting in higher CAD Higher dependence on external savings (FPI, FDI, NRI Deposits) Resulting in Higher Volatility Resulting in Higher Volatility 47 CAD – Current Account Deficit, FPI – Foreign Portfolio Investor, FDI – Foreign Direct Investment, OMO – Open Market Operations,
  • 48. The information contained herein is solely for private circultion for reading/understanding of registered Advisors/Distributors of ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company & should not be circulated to investors/prospective investors. - 104 103 100 - 200 360 500 500 - 100 200 300 400 500 600 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 INR bn OMO Operations 370 380 390 400 410 420 430 Foreign Reserves (In USD Bn) Side Effects of Man to Man marking strategy “warranting to keep neutral stance” Source: JM Research, Internal Research; Data as of Dec 31, 2018 48
  • 49. The information contained herein is solely for private circultion for reading/understanding of registered Advisors/Distributors of ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company & should not be circulated to investors/prospective investors. Growth Inflation Central Bank Outlook Advance Markets Indian Market Strong Strong Hawkish Moderate Benign Neutral Advanced economies being in the final stages of growth resorted to quantitative easing, resulting in growth headwinds in emerging markets such as India, where growth is yet to peak out India in a Different Cycle - Warranting Neutral Stance 49
  • 50. The information contained herein is solely for private circultion for reading/understanding of registered Advisors/Distributors of ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company & should not be circulated to investors/prospective investors. Mixed Macros “warranting for neutral stance” Indicators Dec-18 Outlook Remarks RBI Policy Rates 6.50% Neutral Upcoming policy ; possibility of moving to Neutral stance CPI inflation 2.33% (Nov 2018) Neutral Core Inflation still sticky Oil Prices (USD/barrel) 53.26 Neutral Monitor long term trend CAD (% of GDP) 2.4% (Apr-Jun 2018) Neutral Temporary relief due to crude oil Fiscal Deficit (% of GDP) 3.30% Negative Fiscal discipline in an election year – Challenging FX Reserves (USD Bn) 394.15 Negative Depleting - due to RBI supporting INR 10yr G-Sec 7.37% Negative Post G-Sec rally, risk reward benefit lower Political Scenario Election Year (2019) Cautious Election outcome Macros Outlook - Warrant Neutral Stance Source: MOSPI,RBI, Internal Research; Data as of Dec 31, 2018, CPI – Consumer Price Inflation; CAD – Current Account Deficit; FX – Foreign Exchange; RE –Revised estimate, BE- Budget Estimate; GDP- Gross Domestic Product 50
  • 51. The information contained herein is solely for private circultion for reading/understanding of registered Advisors/Distributors of ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company & should not be circulated to investors/prospective investors. Fiscal Deficit In An Election Year Source: MOSPI, Internal Research; Data as of Dec 31, 2018, RE –Revised estimate, BE- Budget Estimate; GDP – Gross Domestic Product 2.6 6.2 6.7 5.0 5.9 4.9 4.5 4.1 3.9 3.5 3.6 3.3 1.5 2.4 3.0 2.1 1.9 2.0 2.2 2.6 3.1 3.5 3.0 2.64.1 8.6 9.6 7.1 7.8 6.9 6.7 6.7 6.9 7.0 6.6 6.1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18RE FY19BE FiscalDeficit(as%ofGDP) Centre States Maintaining fiscal discipline seems challenging, due to upcoming elections and revenue shortfall 51
  • 52. The information contained herein is solely for private circultion for reading/understanding of registered Advisors/Distributors of ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company & should not be circulated to investors/prospective investors. India Got Lucky: Current Account Deficit (CAD) 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10-6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 Sep-02 Mar-03 Sep-03 Mar-04 Sep-04 Mar-05 Sep-05 Mar-06 Sep-06 Mar-07 Sep-07 Mar-08 Sep-08 Mar-09 Sep-09 Mar-10 Sep-10 Mar-11 Sep-11 Mar-12 Sep-12 Mar-13 Sep-13 Mar-14 Sep-14 Mar-15 Sep-15 Mar-16 Sep-16 Mar-17 Sep-17 Mar-18 Sep-18 10YrG-Sec(%) CAD(%ofGDP) CAD 10 Yr G-Sec (RHS) Expected Source: CRISIL Research, Internal Research; Data as of Sep 30, 2018; Recent steep decline in oil prices bodes well for CAD, especially since non-oil imports have remained firm 52
  • 53. The information contained herein is solely for private circultion for reading/understanding of registered Advisors/Distributors of ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company & should not be circulated to investors/prospective investors. Some Respite in Trade Deficit 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0 8.5 9.0 9.5 10.0-22 -17 -12 -7 -2 Jan-08 Jun-08 Nov-08 Apr-09 Sep-09 Feb-10 Jul-10 Dec-10 May-11 Oct-11 Mar-12 Aug-12 Jan-13 Jun-13 Nov-13 Apr-14 Sep-14 Feb-15 Jul-15 Dec-15 May-16 Oct-16 Mar-17 Aug-17 Jan-18 Jun-18 Nov-18 G-Sec(%) TradeBalance(InUSDbillions) Trade Balance GSEC (RHS) Source: RBI; Data as of Nov 30, 2018; Trade Deficit remains elevated despite improvement. Exports could see a drag due to slowdown in global economy 53
  • 54. The information contained herein is solely for private circultion for reading/understanding of registered Advisors/Distributors of ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company & should not be circulated to investors/prospective investors. 15 35 55 75 95 115 135 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0 8.5 9.0 Jan-11 Jun-11 Nov-11 Apr-12 Sep-12 Feb-13 Jul-13 Dec-13 May-14 Oct-14 Mar-15 Aug-15 Jan-16 Jun-16 Nov-16 Apr-17 Sep-17 Feb-18 Jul-18 Dec-18 BrentCrudeIndex 10YearG-Sec(%) 10 Yr G-Sec Brent Crude Index (RHS) 10 Year G-Sec vs Brent Crude Source: CRISIL Research, Internal Research; Data as of Dec 31, 2018 G-Sec rally in 2018 was mainly owing to the sharp decline in crude oil prices 54
  • 55. The information contained herein is solely for private circultion for reading/understanding of registered Advisors/Distributors of ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company & should not be circulated to investors/prospective investors. Food for Thought - Inflation Source: RBI, Internal Research; Data as of Dec 31, 2018 Unusually low food prices kept inflation below RBI forecast. However, sticky core inflation and sudden reversal in prices of volatile perishable items could be a risk.-2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% HeadlineInflation(%) Core Inflation (%) Food Inflation (%) Fuel and light Inflation (%) Headline Inflation (%), RHS Inflation Weightages: Core: 47.33% Food: 45.86% Fuel & Light : 8.55% 55
  • 56. The information contained herein is solely for private circultion for reading/understanding of registered Advisors/Distributors of ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company & should not be circulated to investors/prospective investors. Liquidity Scenario Source: RBI, Internal Research; Actual Data as of Nov 30, 2018, * - Estimates -4,00,000 -3,00,000 -2,00,000 -1,00,000 0 1,00,000 2,00,000 3,00,000 4,00,000 5,00,000 6,00,000 Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 Mar-16 May-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 Nov-16 Jan-17 Mar-17 May-17 Jul-17 Sep-17 Nov-17 Jan-18 Mar-18 May-18 Jul-18 Sep-18 Nov-18 Jan-19 Mar-19 Amount(inRs.Cr) System Liquidity Core Liquidity * * Liquidity remained in the deficit zone due to: • Credit growth outpacing deposit growth • Rise in currency circulation • Capital Outflows (moderated towards the end of the year) 56
  • 57. The information contained herein is solely for private circultion for reading/understanding of registered Advisors/Distributors of ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company & should not be circulated to investors/prospective investors. Dichotomy Between G-Sec & Corporate Bonds Source: CRISIL Research,; Data as of Dec 31 2018. Past performance may or may not be sustained in future Date AAA - 1 Yr AAA - 3 Yr AAA - 5 Yr AAA - 10 Yr 2017 7.5 7.7 7.7 7.9 2018 8.4 8.6 8.7 8.7 Movement 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.8 Date AA CB - 1 Yr AA CB - 3 Yr AA CB - 5 Yr AA CB - 10Yr 2017 7.8 8.0 8.2 8.4 2018 9.0 9.2 9.3 9.2 Movement 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.8 Date Gsec - 1 yr Gsec - 3 yr Gsec - 5 yr Gsec - 10 yr 2017 6.3 6.7 7.1 7.3 2018 7.1 7.3 7.5 7.6 Movement 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.3 6.8 7.2 7.6 8.0 8.4 8.8 AAA - 1 Yr AAA - 3 Yr AAA - 5 Yr AAA - 10 Yr Yields(%) 7.0 7.5 8.0 8.5 9.0 9.5 AA CB - 1 Yr AA CB - 3 Yr AA CB - 5 Yr AA CB - 10 Yr Yields(%) 6.0 6.4 6.8 7.2 7.6 8.0 Gsec-1yr Gsec-3yr Gsec-5yr Gsec-10yr Yields(%) 2018 2017 2018 2017 2018 2017 Corporate Bonds still at elevated levels compared to G-Sec 57
  • 58. The information contained herein is solely for private circultion for reading/understanding of registered Advisors/Distributors of ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company & should not be circulated to investors/prospective investors. Corporate Bond & Gsec spread over Repo “High Margin of safety” Source: CRISIL Research, Internal Research; Data as of Dec 31, 2018 Avg. 270 bps 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0 8.5 9.0 9.5 1 Year 3-Year 5-Year 10-Year Yields(%) AAA AA Gsec Repo Rate Avg. 210 bps Avg. 90 bps S P R E A D Corporate bonds provide better risk- adjusted returns over G-Sec, as they provides better cushion from any unforeseen event 58
  • 59. The information contained herein is solely for private circultion for reading/understanding of registered Advisors/Distributors of ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company & should not be circulated to investors/prospective investors. Historical Corporate Spreads Over Gsec Source: CRISIL Research, Internal Research; Data as of Dec 31, 2018 -100 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 AAA over Gsec AA over AAA A over AAA AA Over Gsec A over AA A over Gsec Spreads(inbps) High Low Current Median Corporate spreads over G- Sec widened over the last few quarters as compared to the 10-yr average. Advocate accrual strategy to benefit out of higher carry 59
  • 60. The information contained herein is solely for private circultion for reading/understanding of registered Advisors/Distributors of ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company & should not be circulated to investors/prospective investors. Debt Strategy To Follow Accrual Schemes Low/Short Duration Schemes Dynamic Duration Schemes BENEFITS By capturing current Elevated Yield By mitigating interest rate volatility From volatility by active duration management 60
  • 61. The information contained herein is solely for private circultion for reading/understanding of registered Advisors/Distributors of ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company & should not be circulated to investors/prospective investors. 2019 Triggers Election Pre-Election Populist Measures RBI Stance Triggers For 2019 61 Global Bond Yield Movement
  • 62. Summary Fixed Income Outlook - 2019 • Post the G-Sec rally, recommend going long on low/short duration schemes (belly of the curve) and go short on long duration schemes (long end of the curve). • Moved our stance from cautious to neutral. • Credit demand in the economy is strong and we recommend to benefit the carry from the short end of the yield curve. • Expect volatility in the long end of the curve and we recommend trading strategy to beat this volatility. • As from the above statement, it would be clear that we would like to recommend  Accrual schemes which provide better carry,  Low/Short duration schemes which can mitigate interest rate volatility  Dynamic duration schemes which are agile enough to benefit out of interest rate volatility. • Remain watchful on any fiscal slippages, reversal in any food items which are highly perishable, global uncertainty and escalating trade tensions between US-China. 62
  • 63. The information contained herein is solely for private circultion for reading/understanding of registered Advisors/Distributors of ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company & should not be circulated to investors/prospective investors. Debt Valuation Index Debt Valuation Index considers WPI, CPI, Sensex YOY returns, Gold YOY returns and Real estate YOY returns over G-Sec yield, Current Account Balance and Crude Oil Movement for calculation. WPI – Wholesale Price Index; CPI – Consumer Price Index. None of the aforesaid recommendations are based on any assumptions. These are purely for reference and the investors are requested to consult their financial advisors before investing. 63 2.50 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Dec-15 Feb-16 Apr-16 Jun-16 Aug-16 Oct-16 Dec-16 Feb-17 Apr-17 Jun-17 Aug-17 Oct-17 Dec-17 Feb-18 Apr-18 Jun-18 Aug-18 Oct-18 Dec-18 Aggressively in High Duration Ultra Low Duration Low Duration Moderate Duration High Duration We recommend investors to invest in Ultra Low / Low Duration schemes or accrual schemes such as ICICI Prudential Credit Risk Fund. For those investors who aim to benefit from volatility we recommend investment in ICICI Prudential All Seasons Bond Fund.
  • 65. The information contained herein is solely for private circultion for reading/understanding of registered Advisors/Distributors of ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company & should not be circulated to investors/prospective investors. Fixed Income Recommendations ICICI Prudential Floating Interest Fund Cash Management Solution (which aims to benefit from better risk adjusted returns) ICICI Prudential Ultra Short Term Fund ICICI Prudential Medium Term Bond Fund Accrual Schemes (which aims to benefit from capturing yields at elevated levels)ICICI Prudential Credit Risk Fund ICICI Prudential All Seasons Bond Fund Dynamic Duration Schemes ( which aims to benefit from volatility by actively managing duration) ICICI Prudential Short Term Fund Low/Short Duration Schemes (which aims to benefit from mitigating interest rate volatility) 65
  • 66. The information contained herein is solely for private circultion for reading/understanding of registered Advisors/Distributors of ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company & should not be circulated to investors/prospective investors. Accrual Based Schemes Investment Process Well Researched Credit Universe • Based on various filters, qualitative and quantitative research Broadened Exposure • Mitigating concentration risk by diversification Strict Internal Limits at Issuer Level and rating level Managing Duration Risk • Clearly defined modified duration range The asset allocation and investment strategy will be as per Scheme Information Document. *Direct origination means no involvement of intermediaries. 66 The scheme has an Independent credit evaluation, approval, and monitoring process which does not solely rely on the Fund Manager‟s judgment to invest in a paper. The scheme focuses on direct origination* which helps in alpha generation and monitoring.
  • 67. The information contained herein is solely for private circultion for reading/understanding of registered Advisors/Distributors of ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company & should not be circulated to investors/prospective investors. 14% in AAA & equivalentrated debt instruments, TREPS & Net Current Assets The portfolio is well diversified and invests across various credit ratings ranging between AAA to A- Duration Risk reduced by maintaining modified duration at the lower-end – current modified duration – 1.30 yrs 90* different securities with average exposure of around 1.07% to each individual issuer Liquidity Risk Concentration Risk Credit Risk Duration Risk Mitigating risk – ICICI Prudential Credit Risk Fund (An open ended debt scheme predominantly investing in AA and below rated corporate bonds All data as of November 30, 2018 ; *Portfolio includes CPs and CDs; The portfolio of the scheme is subject to changes with in the provisions of the Scheme Information document of the scheme. Please refer to the SID for investment pattern, strategy and risk factors. The asset allocation and investment strategy will be as per Scheme Information Document. TREPS – Third Party Repos 67
  • 68. The information contained herein is solely for private circultion for reading/understanding of registered Advisors/Distributors of ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company & should not be circulated to investors/prospective investors. ICICI Prudential Credit Risk Fund The scheme portfolio is well-diversified across a large number of securities which reduces risk pertaining to high exposure in a single security. 10.14% Yield to Maturity No. of securities in the scheme portfolio Aims to invest in well researched corporate bonds Aims to generate alpha from any potential credit upgrades Aims to maintain stable accrual income with Hold-to-Maturity approach Average exposure to a single security in the portfolio Highest exposure to single security in the portfolio Exposure (as % of NAV) to the top 10 holdings in the portfolio 90 1.07% 5.08% 31.9% Data as of November 30, 2018; The asset allocation and investment strategy will be as per the Scheme Information Document. The portfolio of the scheme is subject to changes within the provisions of the Scheme Information document. 68
  • 69. 69 Core comprises of approximately 60%-70% of the Portfolio. The core is predominantly targeted towards sectors which are value on a relative or absolute basis. Core The Satellite will be blend of strategies such as Special Situation, GARP (Growth at Reasonable Price) philosophy, thematic etc. This bucket will be used opportunistically to book profit and increase weight of the Core Portfolio. Portfolio Strategy ICICI Prudential PMS Flexicap Portfolio A series under “ Aggressive Portfolio” Satellite Features of the Portfolio •Flagship portfolio of ICICI Prudential Portfolio Management Services with a track record of close to 19 years. •Invests across market capitalizations without any undue concentration in any stock or sectors •Portfolio follows Core and Satellite approach for portfolio management. •Aims to invests in sound management, scalable business models and companies have distinctive competitive advantages like pricing power. Investment Objective: ICICI Prudential PMS Flexicap Portfolio is a diversified equity portfolio that endeavors to achieve long term capital appreciation and generate returns by investing across market capitalizations. The investment strategy, and approach of the portfolio mentioned herein involves risk and there can be no assurance that specific objectives will be met under differing market conditions or cycles. The investment strategy and the composition of the portfolio as stated herein is only indicative and is subject to change within the provisions of the disclosure document and client agreement without any prior notice to investors. Please refer to the disclosure document & client agreement for details and risk factors.
  • 70. 70 ICICI Prudential PMS Contra Portfolio A series under “Deep Value Portfolio” The investment strategy, approach and the structure of the portfolio herein involves risk and there can be no assurance that specific objectives will be met under differing market conditions or cycles. The investment strategy and the composition of the portfolio as stated herein is only indicative in nature and is subject to change within the provisions of the disclosure document and client agreement without any prior notice to investors. Please refer to the disclosure document & client agreement for details and risk factors. What is Contrarian Investing? Behavioural Finance View: • Prices of stocks are pushed by investors to unsustainable levels in both direction. • Over reaction by market participants leads to underperformer become under valued and outperformer become over valued. Efficient Markets View: • Prices follow a random walk, though when prices fluctuates to extremes, they are generally brought back to equilibrium in time. • Investor behaviour causes market to deviate from fundamental values creating inefficient markets. Contra Portfolio ICICI Prudential PMS Contra Portfolio aims to provide long term capital appreciation and generate returns by investing in underperforming stocks or sectors, which are available at intrinsic valuations and are expected to perform well in the long run. With an aim to strike an appropriate balance of concentration and diversification Portfolio Manager retains the flexibility to invest across market capitalization and sectors. Contrarian Investing: How it works? Out of the Flavour: Investing into companies where prevailing sentiments are not positive. Avoids: Widespread optimism results in high valuation that may lead to correction when valuations are not justified by fundamentals. Focus: Widespread pessimism about a company can drive prices low. Prices tend to overstate the risk and understate the prospects of recovery.
  • 71. 71 ICICI Prudential PMS Multi-Manager Strategic Equity Portfolio A series under “Multi Manager Portfolio” ICICI Prudential PMS Multi-Manager Strategic Equity Portfolio aims to invest in Mutual Fund schemes which invest in equity and equity related instrument of a particular sector/theme. Indicative no of schemes: 3 to 6 Max weight in single scheme: 40% Portfolio manager may rebalance the portfolio on yearly basis, in order to make necessary changes in the portfolio. However portfolio manager reserves the right to rebalance the portfolio at any given point in time based on change in market conditions. The investment strategy, approach and the structure of the portfolio herein involves risk and there can be no assurance that specific objectives will be met under differing market conditions or cycles. The investment strategy and the composition of the portfolio as stated herein is only indicative in nature and is subject to change within the provisions of the disclosure document and client agreement without any prior notice to investors. Please refer to the disclosure document & client agreement for details and risk factors.
  • 72. The information contained herein is solely for private circultion for reading/understanding of registered Advisors/Distributors of ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company & should not be circulated to investors/prospective investors. Upcoming Events - 2019 U.S. Fed Meetings Jan. 29–30 | March 19–20 April 30–May 1 | June 18–19 July 30–31| Sept. 17–18 Oct. 29–30 | Dec. 10–11 UK UK to Leave European Union March 29 Cricket World Cup May 30–July 14 European Union ECB Meetings Jan 24 | June 6 | Oct 24 March 7 | July 25 | Dec 12 April 10 | Sept 12 ECB President Mario Draghi's term ends Oct. 31 Parliamentary elections May 23–26 Argentina General Election Oct. 27 South Africa General Election Between May 8 and Aug. 7 Australia Federal Election By May 18 Indonesia General Election April 17 Japan Bank of Japan Meetings Jan. 22–23 | April 24–25 July 29–30 | Oct. 30–31 India General Election April | May Canada Federal election By Oct. 21 Source: BlackRock Investment Institute, November 2018. Notes: The ECB meetings are those accompanied by press conferences. The BoJ events shown are followed by the publication of the central bank’s outlook report. This map has been used for design and representational purpose only, it does not depict the geographical boundaries of the country. These do not conform to the external boundaries of India recognized by the Survey of India. 72
  • 73. The information contained herein is solely for private circultion for reading/understanding of registered Advisors/Distributors of ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company & should not be circulated to investors/prospective investors. Our Equity Schemes Scheme Name Type of Scheme ICICI Prudential Bluechip Fund An open ended equity scheme predominantly investing in large cap stocks ICICI Prudential Large & Mid Cap Fund An open ended equity scheme investing in both large cap and mid cap stocks. ICICI Prudential Midcap Fund An open ended equity scheme predominantly investing in mid cap stocks. ICICI Prudential Smallcap Fund An open ended equity scheme predominantly investing in small cap stocks. ICICI Prudential Value Discovery Fund An open ended equity scheme following a value investment strategy. ICICI Prudential Multicap Fund An open ended equity scheme investing across large cap, mid cap, small cap stocks. ICICI Prudential Infrastructure Fund An open ended equity scheme following infrastructure theme. ICICI Prudential Banking & Financial Services Fund An open ended equity scheme investing in Banking & Financial Services Sector ICICI Prudential India Opportunities Fund An Open Ended Equity Scheme following Special Situation theme 73
  • 74. The information contained herein is solely for private circultion for reading/understanding of registered Advisors/Distributors of ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company & should not be circulated to investors/prospective investors. Our Hybrid Schemes Scheme Name Type of Scheme ICICI Prudential Balanced Advantage Fund An open ended dynamic asset allocation fund ICICI Prudential Regular Savings Fund An open ended hybrid scheme investing predominantly in debt instruments ICICI Prudential Equity Savings Fund An open ended scheme investing in equity, arbitrage and debt. ICICI Prudential Equity & Debt Fund An open ended hybrid scheme investing predominantly in equity and equity related instruments ICICI Prudential Multi-Asset Fund An open ended scheme investing in Equity, Debt, Gold/Gold ETF/units of REITs & InvITs and such other asset classes as may be permitted from time to time. 74
  • 75. The information contained herein is solely for private circultion for reading/understanding of registered Advisors/Distributors of ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company & should not be circulated to investors/prospective investors. Our Debt Schemes Scheme Name Type of Scheme ICICI Prudential Ultra Short Term Fund An open ended ultra-short term debt scheme investing in instruments such that the Macaulay duration* of the portfolio is between 3 months and 6 months. ICICI Prudential Short Term Fund An open ended short term debt scheme investing in instruments such that the Macaulay duration* of the portfolio is between 1 Year and 3 Years. ICICI Prudential Medium Term Bond Fund An open ended medium term debt scheme investing in instruments such that the Macaulay duration* of the portfolio is between 3 Years and 4 Years. The Macaulay duration of the portfolio is 1 Year to 4 years under anticipated adverse situation. ICICI Prudential Credit Risk Fund An open ended debt scheme predominantly investing in AA and below rated corporate bonds. ICICI Prudential Floating Interest Fund An open ended debt scheme predominantly investing in floating rate instruments (including fixed rate instruments converted to floating rate exposures using swaps/derivatives). ICICI Prudential All Seasons Bond Fund An open ended dynamic debt scheme investing across duration. ICICI Prudential Savings Fund An open ended low duration debt scheme investing in instruments such that the Macaulay duration of the portfolio is between 6 months and 12 months. ICICI Prudential Corporate Bond Fund An open ended debt scheme predominantly investing in AA+ and above rated corporate bonds. ICICI Prudential Gilt Fund An open ended debt scheme investing in government securities across maturity. 75 *The Macaulay Duration is the weighted average term to maturity of the cash flows from a bond. The weight of each cash flow is determined by dividing the present value of the cash flow by the price.
  • 76. The information contained herein is solely for private circultion for reading/understanding of registered Advisors/Distributors of ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company & should not be circulated to investors/prospective investors. Riskometers ICICI Prudential Multi-Asset Fund is suitable for investors who are seeking*:  Long term wealth creation  An open ended scheme investing in at least three asset classes with minimum allocation of 10% to each asset class. *Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them ICICI Prudential Equity & Debt Fund is suitable for investors who are seeking*:  Long term wealth creation solution  A balanced fund aiming for long term capital appreciation and current income by investing in equity as well as fixed income securities. *Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them ICICI Prudential Balanced Advantage Fund is suitable for investors who are seeking*:  Long term wealth creation solution  An equity fund that aims for growth by investing in equity and derivatives. *Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them 76
  • 77. The information contained herein is solely for private circultion for reading/understanding of registered Advisors/Distributors of ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company & should not be circulated to investors/prospective investors. Riskometers ICICI Prudential Bluechip Fund is suitable for investors who are seeking*:  Long term wealth creation  An open ended equity scheme predominantly investing in large cap stocks. *Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them ICICI Prudential Value Discovery Fund is suitable for investors who are seeking*:  Long term wealth creation  An open ended equity scheme following a value investment strategy *Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them ICICI Prudential Large & Mid Cap Fund is suitable for investors who are seeking*:  Long term wealth creation  An open ended equity scheme investing in both largecap and mid cap stocks *Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them 77
  • 78. The information contained herein is solely for private circultion for reading/understanding of registered Advisors/Distributors of ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company & should not be circulated to investors/prospective investors. Riskometers ICICI Prudential Credit Risk Fund is suitable for investors who are seeking*:  Medium term savings  A debt scheme that aims to generate income through investing predominantly in AA and below rated corporate bonds while maintaining the optimum balance of yield, safety and liquidity *Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them ICICI Prudential Medium Term Bond Fund is suitable for investors who are seeking*:  Medium term savings  A debt scheme that invests in debt and money market instruments with a view to maximize income while maintaining optimum balance of yield, safety and liquidity *Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them ICICI Prudential Regular Savings Fund is suitable for investors who are seeking*:  Medium to long term regular income solution  A hybrid fund that aims to generate regular income through investments primarily in debt and money market instruments and long term capital appreciation by investing a portion in equity. *Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them 78
  • 79. The information contained herein is solely for private circultion for reading/understanding of registered Advisors/Distributors of ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company & should not be circulated to investors/prospective investors. Riskometers ICICI Prudential Short Term Fund is suitable for investors who are seeking*:  Short term income generation and capital appreciation solution  A debt fund that aims to generate income by investing in a range of debt and money market instruments of various maturities. *Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them ICICI Prudential All Seasons Bond Fund is suitable for investors who are seeking*:  All duration savings  A debt scheme that invests in debt and money market instruments with a view to maximize income while maintaining optimum balance of yield, safety and liquidity *Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them ICICI Prudential Smallcap Fund is suitable for investors who are seeking*:  Long Term wealth creation  An open ended equity scheme that seeks to generate capital appreciation by predominantly investing in equity and equity related securities of small cap companies. *Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them 79
  • 80. The information contained herein is solely for private circultion for reading/understanding of registered Advisors/Distributors of ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company & should not be circulated to investors/prospective investors. Riskometers ICICI Prudential Floating Interest Fund is suitable for investors who are seeking*:  Short term savings  An open ended debt scheme predominantly investing in floating rate instruments *Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them ICICI Prudential Ultra Short Term Fund is suitable for investors who are seeking*:  Short term regular income  An open ended ultra-short term debt scheme investing in a range of debt and money market instruments *Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them ICICI Prudential Midcap Fund is suitable for investors who are seeking*:  Long Term wealth creation  An open-ended equity scheme that aims for capital appreciation by investing in diversified mid cap companies. *Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them 80
  • 81. The information contained herein is solely for private circultion for reading/understanding of registered Advisors/Distributors of ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company & should not be circulated to investors/prospective investors. Riskometers ICICI Prudential Infrastructure Fund is suitable for investors who are seeking:*  Long term wealth creation An open-ended equity Scheme that aims for growth by primarily investing in companies belonging to infrastructure and allied sectors *Investors should consult their financial advisors if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them. ICICI Prudential India Opportunities Fund (The scheme is suitable for investors who are seeking*)  Long term wealth creation  An equity scheme that invests in stocks based on special situations theme. *Investors should consult their financial advisors if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them. ICICI Prudential Banking & Financial Services Fund is suitable for investors who are seeking:*  Long term wealth creation An open-ended equity Scheme that that predominantly invests in equity and equity related securities of companies engaged in banking and financial services *Investors should consult their financial advisors if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them. 81
  • 82. The information contained herein is solely for private circultion for reading/understanding of registered Advisors/Distributors of ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company & should not be circulated to investors/prospective investors. Riskometers ICICI Prudential Equity Savings Fund is suitable for investors who are seeking*:  Long term wealth creation  An open ended scheme that seeks to generate regular income through investments in fixed income securities, arbitrage and other derivative strategies and aim for long term capital appreciation by investing in equity and equity related instruments. *Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them ICICI Prudential Multicap Fund is suitable for investors who are seeking*:  Long term wealth creation  An open ended equity scheme investing across largecap, mid cap and small cap stocks. *Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them ICICI Prudential US Bluechip Equity Fund is suitable for investors who are seeking*:  Long term wealth creation  An open ended equity scheme primarily investing in equity and equity related securities of companies listed on recognized stock exchanges in the United States of America *Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them 82
  • 83. The information contained herein is solely for private circultion for reading/understanding of registered Advisors/Distributors of ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company & should not be circulated to investors/prospective investors. Riskometers ICICI Prudential Savings Fund is suitable for investors who are seeking*:  Short term savings  An open ended low duration debt scheme that aims to maximize income by investing in debt and money market instruments while maintaining optimum balance of yield, safety and liquidity *Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them. ICICI Prudential Corporate Bond Fund is suitable for investors who are seeking*:  Short term savings  An open ended debt scheme predominantly investing in highest rated corporate bonds. *Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them. ICICI Prudential Gilt Fund is suitable for investors who are seeking*:  Long term wealth creation  A Gilt scheme that aims to generate income through investment in Gilts of various maturities. *Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them. 83
  • 84. The information contained herein is solely for private circultion for reading/understanding of registered Advisors/Distributors of ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company & should not be circulated to investors/prospective investors. Disclaimer Mutual Fund investments are subject to market risks, read all scheme related documents carefully. All figures and other data given in this document are dated. The same may or may not be relevant at a future date. The AMC takes no responsibility of updating any data/information in this material from time to time. The information shall not be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed, in part or in whole, to any other person or to the media or reproduced in any form, without prior written consent of ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company Limited. Prospective investors are advised to consult their own legal, tax and financial advisors to determine possible tax, legal and other finan- cial implication or consequence of subscribing to the units of ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund. Past Performance may or may not be sustained in future. Disclaimer: In the preparation of the material contained in this document, ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company Ltd. (the AMC) has used information that is publicly available, including informa- tion developed in-house. The stock(s)/sector(s) mentioned in this slide do not constitute any recommendation and ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund may or may not have any future position in this stock(s). Some of the material used in the document may have been obtained from members/persons other than the AMC and/or its affiliates and which may have been made available to the AMC and/or to its affiliates. Information gathered and material used in this document is believed to be from reliable sources. The AMC however does not warrant the accuracy, reasonableness and / or completeness of any information. We have included statements / opinions / recommendations in this document, which contain words, or phrases such as “will”, “expect”, “should”, “believe” and similar expressions or variations of such expressions, that are “forward looking statements”. Actual results may differ materially from those suggested by the forward looking statements due to risk or uncertainties associated with our expectations with respect to, but not limited to, exposure to market risks, general economic and political conditions in India and other countries globally, which have an impact on our services and / or investments, the monetary and interest policies of India, inflation, deflation, unanticipated turbulence in interest rates, foreign exchange rates, equity prices or other rates or prices etc. ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company Limited (including its affiliates), the Mutual Fund, The Trust and any of its officers, directors, personnel and employees, shall not liable for any loss, damage of any nature, including but not limited to direct, indirect, punitive, special, exemplary, consequential, as also any loss of profit in any way arising from the use of this material in any manner. Further, the information contained herein should not be construed as forecast or promise or investment advice. The recipient alone shall be fully responsible/are liable for any decision taken on this material. 84
  • 85. The information contained herein is solely for private circultion for reading/understanding of registered Advisors/Distributors of ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company & should not be circulated to investors/prospective investors. Solution to the Puzzle - "The Theme for the Investment Outlook 2019” H A L T H I N T C A C T U S C A P E X S U M M O N C A U S E H U M A N - A Thorny Plant - Another word for „STOP‟ - Short for Capital Expenditure - To err is to be _____ - A Clue - _____ and Effect - To Call O NITA C C U M U L A H EP A S 85 “With valuations priced in and equity indicators entering the moderate zone, we believe investing is now in the ____________ _____.”