Michael Baker - Sustainable Severn Forum 2017

Editor's Notes

• #2: Michael Baker I am a planner and work for Arup Standing for Clare Lovell originally speaking Joined Arup after TLP At Arup worked on design for TLSB turb house, Feasibility for tidal schemes, and work for Crown Estate Today I will talk about Arup’s perspective on the opportunity that the UK has to develop a specific marine energy technology, tidal range or tidal lagoons, and about how the Severn Estuary could fit within that wider context.
• #3: As we know The Severn and Bristol Channel has some of the most significant tidal range resources in the UK and some of the largest proposed projects globally to date have been proposed here But there is also significant tidal range resource potential beyond the Severn, Solway Morecambe Bay Mersey North Wales Even Humber and South Coast So cannot just assume that the Severn will inherit this opportunity One of the interesting questions to answer is what would a UK or even global tidal industry mean for the Severn area?? What opportunities exist and how can they be exploited?
• #4: So how large is the potential for tidal range There are many many 10s of GWs or projects which have been proposed in UK waters. However, not all of these can co-exist, due to interaction of env impacts, commercial viability, site feasibilities, both alone and with other projects Arup has a conservative estimate which suggests that tidal range could provide up to 15 GW of installed capacity by 2050, which equates to about 10% of the total UK electricity demand 10% is actually relatively small in comparison with other technologies. For example, UK offshore wind could potentially supply the UK demand a number of times over.
• #5: So why is that 10% important? Our press and politicians often like to simplify and polarize the energy debate. Renew vs non renew, Nuclear vs. coal, wind vs. tidal – this causes infighting in our industries and inhibits solutions. To achieve low cost, secure, sustainable energy supplies we need a mix of sources Tidal range has many benefits that makes it work well as part of a diverse mix Purely in energy: it would reduce our reliance on fuel imports And can provide renewable energy production which is predictable and reliable The conversation also needs to consider the other benefits: Flood risk protection use of the impoundment transport combination of these and potential for regeneration So there is a strong case why tidal range is a sound and holistic solution to energy challenge
• #6: This being case, what is the overall economic impact of that 10%? Estimates suggest job creation of 200,000 FTE direct and indirect person years for construction and operation IF we decided to install tidal lagoons to deliver 10% of electricity generation Average of 5,300 FTE person years in direct and indirect jobs for construction A legacy of 5,000 FTE person years in direct and indirect jobs operation Those job numbers are UK wide, serving a UK industry Which is modest compared to other parts of the energy industry, but could be very significant in the context of the project locations
• #7: What are the employment opportunities for the Severn – are they just supporting their local projects with a transient workforce? Need to be realistic about the opportunity. The technology used to create a tidal lagoon comes from an existing, mature, global supply chain. This includes hydro turbine industry, marine contractors who build seawalls; These companies all exist elsewhere and are unlikely to move wholesale. But there are job opportunities for the people of the Severn Estuary --- in assembly, operations, and other high skilled technical jobs. So, the Severn could become a hub of technical capability that supports the industry, and which can be exported There are some great case studies – Orkney for marine renewables, Hull for offshore wind, Nuclear in the South West – e.g. Nuclear South West, Somerset Innovation Centre (Bridgwater College) Its about being pragmatic and realistic about what areas should be pursued – prioritise the benefits we can gain from projects in the UK and beyond