Mk presentation rome 14 nov 2012
- 1. Measuring and Managing Research Outcomes National Research Policy Forum Rome, 14th November 2012 Dr Michiel Kolman, Sr. VP Global Academic Relations, Elsevier 1
- 2. Research is pivotal to economic growth and addressing societal challenges “ Science is not a luxury which is the preserve of developed countries... Technology and innovation are key to achieving long-term economic and social development Science and innovation are recognised the world over as crucial to economic competitiveness.” The Royal Society: Knowledge, Networks and Nations, 2011 2
- 3. The world of research is large and growing Global R&D spending: $1.2 trillion in 2010 Spending on R&D – OECD countries* Indexed values; 100 = Spend in 1981 350 300 Annual growth: +4% (real) 250 200 150 100 50 0 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 * $PPP, 2000 constant currencies Source: OECD, Battelle 3
- 4. R&D spending as % of GDP has been relatively stable in developed markets, and is increasing in developing ones GERD as % of GDP – Developed Markets 3.0 2.5 2.0 Gross Expenditure on R&D (GERD) as % of GDP - Total 1.5 1.0 3.0 0.5 2.5 0.0 2.0 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 1.5 GERD as % of GDP – Developing Markets 1.0 3.0 0.5 2.5 2.0 0.0 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 Source: OECD 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 Developed markets include US, Japan, and EU27 Developing markets include China and S. Korea 4
- 5. Governments trying to protect R&D funding € 25,000.00 GERD of Italy 1996 - 2010 CAGR: 2.3% € 20,000.00 € 15,000.00 € 10,000.00 € 5,000.00 € 0.00 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Source: OECD Main Science and Technology Indicators, 2011 5
- 6. Growth in R&D spending drives number of researchers and research activity Number of researchers – OECD countries Number of research articles published Indexed values; 100 = Number of researchers in 1981 Indexed values; 100 = Number of articles in 1981 350 350 300 300 250 250 200 200 Annual growth: +4% Annual growth: +4% Annual growth: +3-4% 150 150 100 100 50 50 0 0 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Global number of researchers: Number of research articles: 7 million in 2010 >1.5 million in 2010 Source: OECD; ISI; Scopus 6
- 7. Growth in research inputs drives growth in research outputs 1,000,000 United States China 100,000 United Kingdom Germany Japan Canada France Number of articles published 2008 Italy Spain Australia India Brazil Korea Netherlands Russian Federation Switzerland Poland Turkey Sweden Belgium Iran Denmark Israel Greece Austria 10,000 Czech Republic Hong Kong Finland Norway Mexico New Zealand Portugal Singapore Argentina South Africa Ireland Thailand Hungary Egypt Romania Ukraine Chile Malaysia Slovakia Pakistan Slovenia Serbia Bulgaria Croatia Tunisia Saudi Arabia Colombia Algeria Lithuania Morocco Estonia Belarus 1,000 Indonesia Kuwait Philippines Cyprus Uruguay Iceland Peru Armenia Sri Lanka Ethiopia 100 10 100 1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000 Gross Expenditure on R&D, $m 2008 PPP Source: Elsevier analysis, Scopus 7
- 8. Four trends continue to increase the value of research information 1. Inter- disciplinarity 4. Data Science is becoming 2. Collabor intensity more global -ation and more complex & Mobility 3. Emerging Markets 8
- 9. Trend #1: Research is increasingly interdisciplinary Italy Research Strengths (2011) Interdisciplinarity increases demand to • Use information broadly across disciplines – Eliminate duplication – Build on existing findings, data, models • Identify new cross-disciplinary areas • Nurture and leverage institutions’ inter-disciplinary strengths Source: SciVal Spotlight, Italy map 9
- 10. Trend #2: Research is increasingly internationally collaborative Percentage of internationally co-authored articles increased from 26% in 1996 to 36% in 2008 “Collaboration enhances the quality of research, improves its efficiency and effectiveness, and is increasingly necessary as the scale of budgets and research challenges grow” - The Royal Society, 2011 International collaboration drives • Demand to find collaborators to leverage knowledge and equipment, and co-ordinate efforts • Need to map collaboration networks Source: Scopus; The Royal Society – Knowledge, Networks and Nations, 2011 10
- 11. Trend #3: Emerging markets are rapidly growing their research activity Number of articles per year (‘000) 3,000 CAGR ‘00-’10 Drivers 2,500 China 20% • Emerging economies’ 2,000 India 11% consumption of research Brazil 13% S. Korea 12% information and dissemination of results 1,500 Italy 6% US 4% • Developed economies’ 1,000 need to use those results UK 4% Japan 2% and collaborate Germany 4% 500 France 4% 0 ROW 3% 1996 2000 2005 2010 2015 Source: Scopus; projections based on trend information 11
- 12. Trend #4: Research is increasingly data intensive Very high importance, very high satisfaction • Drives demand to host, Ease of access (Easy or Fairly Easy) store, curate and link to data sets – Subject-specific – Across disciplines High importance, low satisfaction Importance of access Source: Publisher Research Council – Global Access vs. Importance Study (3,823 researcher respondents) 12
- 13. STM information companies have a unique vantage point on research Each year •3 million articles submitted •300,000 peer reviewers •1.5 million articles published •30 million readers •2 billion digital article downloads •30 million article citations 13
- 14. Contribution #1: Continue to register, review, disseminate, and preserve research outputs
- 15. Contribution #2: Nurture and leverage cross-disciplinary areas of research 15
- 16. Contribution #3: Facilitate collaboration citation impact Field-weighted Less than world average > world but < UK average Greater than UK average 16
- 17. Contribution #4: Monitor brain circulation Migratory researcher = permanent or returnee (2 or more years abroad) Relative Productivity = articles per year relative to all UK researchers Transitory researcher = less then 2 years abroad Relative Seniority = years of publication activity relative to all UK researchers
- 18. Contribution #4: Monitor brain circulation 18 Source: Elsevier analysis, Scopus
- 19. Global migration patterns Study country: UK Study country: USA Study country: CHN To-country % migration To-country % migration To-country % migration USA 28.7 UK 10.6 USA 50.4 AUS 6.9 CAN 9.7 JPN 8.3 GER 6.1 CHN 9.6 CAN 6.0 CAN 5.4 GER 8.6 UK 5.5 FRA 4.8 South Korea 5.0 SGP 5.2 ITA 3.3 JPN 4.6 GER 4.2 19
- 20. Contribution #5: Facilitate access to experimental data Publishers are working to facilitate access to experimental data sets Link data sets to journal articles, e.g. Pangaea, CCDC Support and drive guidelines with key partners, e.g. Wellcome Trust, NSF, Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation 20 Source: 3823 researcher respondents, PRC global access vs. Importance study http://www.publishingresearch.net/
- 21. Contribution #6: Broaden range of research metrics and tools http://www.projectsnowball.info/ 21
- 22. Summary Quality of life Quality research Quality information 22