MX Business Update Investor Presentation July 2021 - FINAL.pdf
- 1. Extending Industry Leadership: Delivering Shareholder Value July 2021
- 2. Forward-looking statements and non-GAAP measures Information contained in these materials or presented orally, either in prepared remarks or in response to questions, contains forward-looking statements. Actual results could differ materially from those contemplated by the forward-looking statements. For more information, we direct you to our 2020 Annual MD&A and slide 22 of this presentation. This presentation uses the terms EBITDA, Adjusted EBITDA and illustrative Free Cash Flow. These items are non-GAAP measures that do not have any standardized meaning prescribed by GAAP and therefore unlikely to be comparable to similar measures presented by other companies. These measures represent the amounts that are attributable to Methanex Corporation and are calculated by excluding the impact of certain items associated with specific identified events. Refer to slide 22 of this presentation as well as Additional Information - Supplemental Non-GAAP Measures in the Company's 2020 Annual MD&A for reconciliation in certain instances to the most comparable GAAP measures. All currency amounts are stated in United States dollars. 2
- 4. Global methanol leader Leading market share, global production footprint, integrated global supply chain Positive long-term industry outlook New industry supply is needed to meet growing methanol demand Strong free cash flow generation potential Low-cost producer with significant cash flow generation capability Disciplined approach to capital allocation Prudent balance sheet management, profitable capital investments and strong track record of shareholder distributions over the cycle Industry leader well-positioned to capitalize on market recovery 4 Methanex is the world’s largest producer and supplier of methanol to major international markets
- 5. Business update 5 1 Positive methanol industry outlook with new industry supply needed to meet growing methanol demand 2 Strong financial position to restart Geismar 3 construction and execute on our capital allocation priorities 3 Geismar 3 will strengthen our asset portfolio and significantly increase our future cash generation capability 4 Consistent capital allocation priorities with emphasis on financial flexibility • Targeting higher cash balances • Targeting lower leverage • Continued commitment of returning excess cash to shareholders Board unanimously approved key decisions aligned with our capital allocation priorities • Restart construction on our advantaged Geismar 3 project • Strategic shipping partnership - proceeds of $145M • Reset quarterly dividend to $0.125/share
- 6. Strategic partnership 6 • Strategic partnership between Methanex, Waterfront Shipping (WFS)1 and Mitsui O.S.K. Lines (MOL): – Expands on a 30-year methanol shipping relationship – Methanex and Waterfront Shipping to benefit from MOL’s broad shipping experience to enhance its shipping operations – Parties to work together to advance the commercialization of methanol as a lower emission marine fuel • MOL will acquire a 40 percent minority interest in WFS – Proceeds of $145M – Methanex retains remaining 60 percent majority interest – No change to Waterfront Shipping’s day-to-day operations • Unlocks underappreciated value of WFS to further enhance our financial strength and flexibility 1 Waterfront Shipping, a subsidiary of Methanex, operates the world’s largest methanol ocean tanker fleet
- 7. The timing is right to restart Geismar 3 construction 7 Positive methanol industry outlook with new industry supply needed to meet growing methanol demand • Global methanol demand growth forecast of ~16M tonnes or ~20% (~4% CAGR)1 over the next five years • Industry capacity additions are expected in the near-term with limited new project commitments beyond 2022 Strong liquidity and financial strength to fund Geismar 3 with cash on hand and future cash flow • Healthy cash balance and deleveraging initiatives support strong financial position • Continued strong methanol pricing supports future cash generation • Revised estimated capital cost of $1.25-$1.35 billion • Approximately $435M committed as of the end of Q3 2021 through the care and maintenance period • Approximately $800-900M of remaining capital costs, after resuming construction, with healthy allowances for both escalation and contingency costs • Expect to be able to fund construction without incurring incremental debt at methanol prices of ~$275/tonne and higher • Anticipate that we will have the ability to further de-lever and increase shareholder distributions during the Geismar 3 construction period at sustained methanol prices of ~$325/tonne or higher Activities completed during care and maintenance period and reduction in the time to complete the project significantly reduce the project’s execution risk profile • Strong execution plan with a healthy contingency to support potential risks and uncertainties • Independent project reviews indicate that the project is well positioned to be completed on time and on budget 1 Source: IHS Chemical Supply & Demand Spring 2021 Update
- 9. 41 50 14 9 3 4 17 26 30 81 97 2020 Traditional MTO Other Energy 2025 M tonnes Methanol demand growth outlook 2021-2025 Traditional chemical MTO Other energy IHS forecasts strong methanol demand growth over the next five years 9 Traditional chemical applications – steady growth • Demand growth linked to global economic growth • IMF forecasts ~3-4% annual GDP growth post COVID-19 recovery Methanol-to-olefins (MTO) – stable demand • Demand growth reflects start-up of two MTO plants in the near-term (Tianjin Bohai, Qinghai Damei) • Historical operating rates resilient through different methanol/olefin price cycles Energy-related demand – significant upside potential • Growing market for methanol supported by clean energy policies and commercialization of methanol as a lower emission fuel (e.g., marine fuel) Global methanol demand growth forecast ~4% CAGR Sources: IHS Chemical Supply & Demand Spring 2021 Update International Monetary Fund (IMF) World Economic Outlook, April 2021 +16M tonnes or ~20% over next five years +4% CAGR +4% CAGR +3% CAGR
- 10. Limited new industry capacity additions after 2022 10 New capacity additions • New capacity additions are expected in the near-term with limited new project commitments beyond 2022 Industry operating rates • Recent industry operating rates have been challenged due to: – Iran – new plants have run on an intermittent basis due to technical issues and natural gas constraints – Trinidad – impacted by natural gas challenges – Venezuela – impacted by lack of investment under US sanctions – China – feedstock availability and environmental restrictions • Expect industry operating rates to continue to be challenged due to: – Feedstock availability – Technical issues – Geopolitical challenges – Environmental restrictions (e.g., China) Estimated committed industry capacity additions 2021-2025 Country Plant Size (M tonnes) Expected start-up timing US Koch 1.7 2021 Iran Sabalan 1.7 2021/2022 US Various 0.8 Geismar 2 debottleneck (‘21) US Methanol (late ‘21) Others Russia Shchekinoazot 0.5 2022 China Various 6.6 Includes backward integration of two MTO plants (2021) and stand- alone capacity additions primarily in 2021/2022 US Geismar 3 1.8 End of 2023/early 2024 Total 14.1 Source: IHS Chemical Supply & Demand Spring 2021 Update
- 11. Traditional chemical Other US MTO Geismar 3 Other energy Trinidad Iran Russia China Incremental production required from existing industry capacity 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 Estimated demand growth Estimated supply growth M tonnes Supply/demand outlook 2021-2025 New industry supply and improved industry operating rates are needed to meet growing methanol demand 11 Source: IHS Chemical Supply & Demand Spring 2021 Update Estimated supply growth reflects IHS estimates of incremental production based on the following estimated capacity additions (capacity in M tonnes denoted below), adjusted for estimated operating rates: - United States: Koch (1.7), Geismar 3 (1.8), other (0.8) - Trinidad: Caribbean Gas Chemical Limited (1.0) started up in late 2020 - Iran: Sabalan (1.7) - Russia (0.5) - China: includes backward integration of two existing MTO facilities and stand- alone capacity additions (6.6) - Improved industry operating rates includes IHS estimates primarily for Chile, Venezuela, Western Europe
- 12. • Industry forecasts1 show pricing at: – ~$330-$350/tonne in the near-term – ~$400+/tonne in the mid-to-long term Positive methanol price outlook 12 88% 80% 73% 53% 25% > $250 > $275 >$300 >$350 >$400 Methanex quarterly average realized price Favorable near-term factors Third party price forecasts Historical methanol price distribution 2011-2020 • Methanol prices have averaged ~$350/tonne over the last 10 years and have been above $300 over 70% of the time 200 300 400 500 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 $/tonne IHS MMSA Average • Higher methanol prices and tight market conditions supported by: – Strong methanol demand – Low global inventory levels – Ongoing industry supply challenges – Higher energy price environment • Current industry cost curve estimated at $300-$320/tonne – Robust China coal prices provide firm methanol price support – Marginal producer includes high-cost coal-based methanol producers and natural gas-based producers in China 1 Source: IHS methanol price forecast (June 2021) and MMSA methanol price forecast (March 2021)
- 13. Strong financial position to execute on our capital allocation priorities
- 14. Essential • Debt service ~$100M lease principal payments ~$160M interest, debt repayment • Maintenance capital ~$120M per year Profitable growth Pursue value accretive growth opportunities Shareholder distributions Strong track record of and continued commitment to returning excess cash to shareholders Consistent capital allocation priorities with emphasis on financial flexibility 14 Maintain a strong and flexible balance sheet 1. Target higher cash balances – Maintain a minimum $300M+ of cash plus remaining G3 capital costs on balance sheet; $300-500M post G3 construction 2. Target lower leverage – Deleverage over the coming years; next debt maturity in 2024 – Target 3x debt/EBITDA at methanol prices ~$275-$300/tonne 3. Return excess cash to shareholders through a sustainable dividend with greater weighting on flexible vehicles for distributions such as share buybacks 1 2 3 Disciplined capital allocation framework… …with increased emphasis on financial flexibility
- 15. Strong liquidity position Amount ($M) Maturity Cash on balance sheet (as of March 31, 2021) Add: strategic partnership transaction (late ’21) Less: repaid G3 construction facility (Q2’21) Add: illustrative cumulative free cash flow (Q2-Q3’21) Less: est. Geismar 3 capital costs (Q2-Q3’21) Estimated pro-forma cash balance 827 145 (173) 200 (50) 949 n/a Back-up liquidity (undrawn) - G3 construction facility - Revolving credit facility 600 300 July 2025 July 2026 Deleveraging initiatives strengthen balance sheet ahead of G3 restart 15 • Healthy cash balance underpinned by undrawn back- up liquidity Deleveraging initiatives • Strategic partnership between Methanex, Waterfront Shipping (WFS) and Mitsui O.S.K. Lines (MOL) - proceeds of $145M expected in late 2021 • Repaid $173M drawn on our Geismar 3 construction facility and reduced facility size by $200M (to $600M from $800M) Enhancing financial flexibility • Recently extended credit facility terms – Geismar 3 construction facility to July 2025 from July 2024 – Revolving credit facility to July 2026 from July 2024 Estimated Geismar 3 capital cost profile ($M) Committed capital costs through care and maintenance period Remaining capital costs after resuming construction Grand Total Up to 3/31/21 Q2-Q3 2021 Sub-total Q4 2021 2022 2023 Sub-total 385 50 435 100 410 355 865 $1.3B Refer to slide 25 for details
- 16. • Expect to be able to fund construction without incurring incremental debt at methanol prices of ~$275/tonne and higher • Anticipate that we will have the ability to further de-lever and increase shareholder distributions during the Geismar 3 construction period at sustained methanol prices of ~$325/tonne or higher 827 386 145 173 200 50 700 865 98 300 Starting cash (as of 3/31/2021) Strategic partnership transaction Repaid G3 construction facility Illustrative free cash flow at $350/tonne (Q2-Q3 2021) Est. G3 capital costs (Q2-Q3 2021) Illustrative free cash flow at $325/tonne (Q4 2021-Q4 2023) Est. G3 capital costs (Q4 2021- Q4 2023) Quarterly dividend ($0.125/share) Minimum cash balance Potential excess cash at $325/tonne Uses of cash Sources of cash Intend to fund remaining Geismar 3 capital costs with cash on hand and future cash flow 16 Illustrative cash flow bridge Q2 2021 – Q4 2023 ($M) Refer to slide 25 for details
- 17. Average realized price per tonne Illustrative free cash flow capability ($M) Current production capability Current production capability + G3 Potential increase in free cash flow with G3 $ % $275 100 200 + 100 + 100% $300 200 325 + 125 + 63% $325 300 450 + 150 + 50% $350 400 600 + 200 + 50% $400 600 850 + 250 + 42% Committed to building on strong track record of returning excess cash to shareholders 17 • Board approved reset of quarterly dividend to $0.125/share – from $0.0375/share • Geismar 3 supports a significant increase in future shareholder distribution potential • Geismar 3 is the only significant growth capital expected over next few years • Return excess cash to shareholders through a sustainable dividend with greater weighting on flexible vehicles for distributions such as share buybacks G3 significantly increases our future cash generation capability Committed to returning excess cash to shareholders Refer to slide 24 for details
- 18. Our Geismar 3 project has significant capital and operating cost advantages
- 19. Project overview 19 • Size: 1.8M tonne methanol plant • Location: Geismar, Louisiana adjacent to existing Geismar 1 and 2 plants (current capacity 2.2M tonnes) • Key dates: – July 2019 – reached a final investment decision – April 2020 – placed project on temporary “care and maintenance” – July 2021 – board unanimously approved restarting construction • Revised estimated capital cost: $1.25-$1.35 billion – Original estimate was $1.3-$1.4 billion – Approximately $435M committed as of the end of Q3 2021 through the care and maintenance period – Approximately $800-900M of remaining capital costs, after resuming construction, with healthy allowances to cover remaining risks • Timing: – Construction to restart October 1, 2021 – Commercial operations targeted for the end of 2023/early 2024
- 20. Geismar 3 has distinct project advantages and robust project economics 20 1. Project returns – significant capital and operating cost advantages enhance project returns Based on remaining capital costs1 • Estimate IRR of 20-28% for methanol prices between $350 and $400/tonne, gas price of $2.90/mmbtu and freight to Asia • We return our cost of capital at methanol prices of ~$250/tonne 2. Significant capital cost advantages – use of excess hydrogen from Geismar 1 and Geismar 2 eliminates the need for a primary reformer 3. Meaningful brownfield advantages – shared infrastructure with Geismar 1 and 2 creates capital and operating cost advantages 4. Well-situated – with access to long-term cost advantaged 3rd party supply for oxygen, utilities and terminal capacity 5. Low cost – operating cost advantages make Geismar 3 one of the lowest cost plants in our portfolio 6. Significant cash generation capability – expect incremental free cash flow of ~$125-$250M per year (methanol price of $300-400/tonne) 7. Natural gas supply – underpinned by abundant and low-cost US natural gas resources 8. Very low CO2 emissions intensity – estimated to be among the lowest CO2 emissions intensity methanol plants in the world2 9. Lower country risk – lower construction and operational risk for manufacturing assets in the US compared to other regions 10. Project de-risked – activities completed during care and maintenance period significantly reduce the project execution risk profile 11. Labour availability – Geismar 3 project is well-positioned in the construction market ahead of other non-methanol major projects in the US Gulf Coast 12. Supply chain flexibility – global supply chain capabilities create low cost flexibility to respond to tariffs 1 Based on remaining Geismar 3 capital costs (~$800-900M), after resuming construction, and excludes costs of approximately $435M committed as of the end of Q3 2021 through the care and maintenance period 2 Estimate that Geismar 3’s CO2 emissions intensity (Scope 1 and Scope 2) to be less than ~0.4/tonne vs existing Mx portfolio of ~0.6/tonne and vs coal-based methanol plants (~5-7x higher than natural gas-based plants)
- 21. Spend through end of Q3 2021 Fixed or Firm Costs Construction Labour Column1 Column2 Geismar 3 project is significantly de-risked and well-positioned for success 21 Spend through Q3 2021 • ~1/3 of total project costs spent since FID and through ‘care and maintenance’ • Focus of spend during this period has significantly de-risked future project execution – such as: – Site preparations complete allow for early resumption of main construction activities – Engineering substantially (>95%) complete eliminating potential scope risk and improves construction productivity – Long-lead equipment procured and fabricated and will arrive on site early reducing schedule risk Construction Labour • Strong project and construction management capability with prior Geismar 1 and 2 project experience • G3 project is well-positioned in the construction market ahead of other major projects • Utilizing sub-contractors with proven experience and track record from our Geismar 1 and 2 projects • Applied learnings from Geismar 1 and 2 projects to further enhance construction productivity Fixed or Firm Project Costs • Large portion of remaining project costs are fixed or firm including: – Integrated project team and other Owner’s costs (e.g. salaries, catalyst supply, key spare parts already procured) – Pricing established for most of the remaining bulk material costs (mainly piping and structural steel) – Residual bulk material spend will be fixed before the end of 2021 Total Project Cost $1.25B - $1.35B ~$800M - 900M To Go1 1 Reflects remaining capital costs, after resuming construction, with healthy allowances for both escalation and contingency costs
- 22. Forward-looking statements and non-GAAP measures 22 This presentation, our First Quarter 2021 Management’s Discussion and Analysis ("MD&A") as well as comments made during the First Quarter 2021 investor conference call contain forward-looking statements with respect to us and our industry. These statements relate to future events or our future performance. All statements other than statements of historical fact are forward-looking statements. Statements that include the words "believes," "expects," "may," "will," "should," "potential," "estimates," "anticipates," "aim," "goal", "targets", "plan," "predict" or other comparable terminology and similar statements of a future or forward-looking nature identify forward-looking statements. More particularly and without limitation, any statements regarding the following are forward-looking statements: • expected demand for methanol and its derivatives, • expected new methanol supply or restart of idled capacity and timing for start-up of the same, • expected shutdowns (either temporary or permanent) or restarts of existing methanol supply (including our own facilities), including, without limitation, the timing and length of planned maintenance outages, • expected methanol and energy prices, • expected levels of methanol purchases from traders or other third parties, • expected levels, timing and availability of economically priced natural gas supply to each of our plants, • capital committed by third parties towards future natural gas exploration and development in the vicinity of our plants, • our expected capital expenditures and anticipated timing and rate of return of such capital expenditures, • anticipated operating rates of our plants, • expected operating costs, including natural gas feedstock costs and logistics costs, • expected tax rates or resolutions to tax disputes, • the timing of the closing of the sale of a minority interest in our Waterfront Shipping subsidiary, • expected cash flows, cash balances, earnings capability, debt levels and share price, • availability of committed credit facilities and other financing, • our ability to meet covenants associated with our long-term debt obligations, including, without limitation, the Egypt limited recourse debt facilities that have conditions associated with the payment of cash or other distributions, • our shareholder distribution strategy and expected distributions to shareholders, • commercial viability and timing of, or our ability to execute future projects, plant restarts, capacity expansions, plant relocations or other business initiatives or opportunities, including our Geismar 3 Project, • our financial strength and ability to meet future financial commitments, • expected global or regional economic activity (including industrial production levels) and GDP growth, • expected outcomes of litigation or other disputes, claims and assessments, • expected actions of governments, governmental agencies, gas suppliers, courts, tribunals or other third parties, and • the potential future impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. We believe that we have a reasonable basis for making such forward-looking statements. The forward-looking statements in this document are based on our experience, our perception of trends, current conditions and expected future developments as well as other factors. Certain material factors or assumptions were applied in drawing the conclusions or making the forecasts or projections that are included in these forward-looking statements, including, without limitation, future expectations and assumptions concerning the following: • the supply of, demand for and price of methanol, methanol derivatives, natural gas, coal, oil and oil derivatives, • our ability to procure natural gas feedstock on commercially acceptable terms, • operating rates of our facilities, • receipt or issuance of third-party consents or approvals or governmental approvals related to rights to purchase natural gas, • the establishment of new fuel standards, • operating costs, including natural gas feedstock and logistics costs, capital costs, tax rates, cash flows, foreign exchange rates and interest rates, • the availability of committed credit facilities and other financing, • the expected timing and capital cost of our Geismar 3 Project, • global and regional economic activity (including industrial production levels) and GDP growth, • absence of a material negative impact from major natural disasters, • absence of a material negative impact from changes in laws or regulations, • absence of a material negative impact from political instability in the countries in which we operate, and • enforcement of contractual arrangements and ability to perform contractual obligations by customers, natural gas and other suppliers and other third parties. However, forward-looking statements, by their nature, involve risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated by the forward-looking statements. The risks and uncertainties primarily include those attendant with producing and marketing methanol and successfully carrying out major capital expenditure projects in various jurisdictions, including, without limitation: • conditions in the methanol and other industries including fluctuations in the supply, demand and price for methanol and its derivatives, including demand for methanol for energy uses, • the price of natural gas, coal, oil and oil derivatives, • our ability to obtain natural gas feedstock on commercially acceptable terms to underpin current operations and future production growth opportunities, • the ability to carry out corporate initiatives and strategies, • actions of competitors, suppliers and financial institutions, • conditions within the natural gas delivery systems that may prevent delivery of our natural gas supply requirements, • our ability to meet timeline and budget targets for the Geismar 3 Project, including the impact of any cost pressures arising from labour costs, • the signing of definitive agreements and the receipt of regulatory and other customary approvals in respect of the sale of a minority interest in our Waterfront Shipping subsidiary, • competing demand for natural gas, especially with respect to any domestic needs for gas and electricity, • actions of governments and governmental authorities, including, without limitation, implementation of policies or other measures that could impact the supply of or demand for methanol or its derivatives, • changes in laws or regulations, • import or export restrictions, anti-dumping measures, increases in duties, taxes and government royalties and other actions by governments that may adversely affect our operations or existing contractual arrangements, • world-wide economic conditions, • the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, and • other risks described in our 2020 Annual Management’s Discussion and Analysis and this First Quarter 2021 Management’s Discussion and Analysis. Having in mind these and other factors, investors and other readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on forward-looking statements. They are not a substitute for the exercise of one’s own due diligence and judgment. The outcomes implied by forward-looking statements may not occur and we do not undertake to update forward-looking statements except as required by applicable securities laws
- 23. Appendix 23
- 24. Illustrative Adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow capabilities 24 Average realized price per tonne Annual Production1 Current production capability2 Current production capability plus Geismar 33 Adjusted EBITDA capability4 Free cash flow capability5 Free cash flow yield6 Adjusted EBITDA capability4 Free cash flow capability5 Free cash flow yield6 $275 525 100 4% 675 200 7% $300 650 200 7% 850 325 12% $325 775 300 11% 1,025 450 17% $350 900 400 15% 1,175 600 22% $400 1,175 600 22% 1,525 850 32% 1 Reflects Methanex interest (63.1% Atlas, 50% Egypt) 2 Reflects estimated annual production of ~7.0M tonnes 3 Reflects current estimated annual production of ~7.0M tonnes plus Geismar 3 (1.8M tonnes) 4 Adjusted EBITDA reflects Methanex’s proportionate ownership interest 5 Based on rule of thumb using current production capability of ~7.0M tonnes, we estimate free cash flow breakeven price of ~$250-260/tonne and free cash flow sensitivity to change in methanol price of ~$25/tonne = ~$100M annual free cash flow. Free cash flow capability is after lease payments, cash interest (based on current debt levels), debt service, maintenance capital, estimated cash taxes and other cash payments. Various factors including rising/declining methanol prices, planned and unplanned production outages, production mix, changes in tax rates, and other items can impact actual free cash flow. Incremental free cash flow from G3 is presented net of estimated maintenance capital and tax costs. Tax costs were estimated using current enacted tax rates applied over the life of the asset. Timing of actual taxes payable may vary 6 Free cash flow yield based on 76.2M shares outstanding as of 03/31/2021 and a share price of US$35/share In $M, except where noted
- 25. Q2 2021 – Q4 2023 proforma cash flow Anticipate the ability to further de-lever and increase shareholder distributions during the Geismar 3 construction period at methanol prices of ~$325/tonne or higher 25 Average realized price per tonne In $M, except where noted $275 $300 $325 $350 Starting cash (as of March 31, 2021)1 827 827 827 827 Add: strategic partnership transaction2 145 145 145 145 Less: cash to repay G3 credit facility3 (173) (173) (173) (173) Add: illustrative cumulative free cash flow (Q2-Q3 2021)4 200 200 200 200 Less: est. Geismar 3 capital costs (Q2-Q3 2021)5 (50) (50) (50) (50) Sub-total 949 949 949 949 Add: illustrative cumulative free cash flow (Q4 2021-Q4 2023)6 300 500 700 900 Less: est. remaining Geismar 3 capital costs (Q4 2021-Q4 2023)7 (865) (865) (865) (865) Less: current quarterly dividend8 (98) (98) (98) (98) Add: incremental debt9 --- --- --- --- Sub-total 286 486 686 886 Less: minimum cash balance10 (300) (300) (300) (300) Potential excesscash11 Nil 186 386 586 Footnotes 1 Reflects Mx share of cash 2 Reflects proceeds from strategic partnership transaction between Methanex, Waterfront Shipping and Mitsui O.S.K. Ltd. 3 Repaid $173M drawn on G3 construction facility in Q2 2021 4 Reflects illustrative free cash flow based on $350/tonne price 5 Reflects ~$50M of costs committed in Q2-Q3 2021 through the care and maintenance period 6 Reflects illustrative cumulative future free cash flow (based on assumptions outlined in slide 24), and also includes the impact from changes in working capital and other from Q4 2021 through Q4 2023 7 Reflects ~$800-900M of remaining estimated G3 capital costs from Q4 2021 through Q4 2023 8 Reflects quarterly dividend of $0.0375/share for Q2 2021 and a quarterly dividend of $0.125/share for Q3 2021 to Q4 2023 9 We expect to be able to fund construction without incurring incremental debt at methanol prices of ~$275/tonne and higher 10 Maintain a minimum $300M+ of cash plus remaining G3 capital costs on balance sheet during construction 11 Reflects potential excess cash. Various factors including rising/ declining prices, planned and unplanned production outages, production mix, changes in tax rates, and other items can impact actual free cash flow and potential excess cash
- 26. Strong track record of balanced capital investment and shareholder distributions 26 $150 $200 $250 $300 $350 $400 $450 $500 $0 $200 $400 $600 $800 $1,000 $1,200 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 $/tonne $M 10-year capital allocation history Capital investments (LHS) Shareholder distributions (LHS) Methanol price (RHS) 60% 40% 10-year capital allocation mix Capital investments Shareholder distributions Shareholder distributions include dividend and share buybacks Methanol price reflects Methanex’s quarterly average realized price
- 27. Investor Relations T: 604 661 2600 [email protected] Thank you www.methanex.com linkedin.com/company/methanex-corporation @Methanex