Northern Utah Economic Status Report: Oct 2008
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- Utah has experienced strong population and job growth in recent years, though the economy is slowing significantly due to the national housing downturn and financial crisis. - Davis and Weber counties have seen steady population and employment increases but job and construction growth rates are declining and unemployment rates are rising in line with the state and national trends. - Wages in Davis and Weber counties remain below the state average and wage growth has moderated as the economy cools. The outlook calls for further slowing of job and construction activity through 2009.
![John Mathews Northern Regional Economist Department of Workforce Services ( jobs.utah.gov ) [email_address] (801) 526-9467 Powerpoint slide show at: http://jobs.utah.gov/opencms/wi/pubs/publicat.html Scroll down to presentations](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/northutahhroct08-090402153620-phpapp02/85/Northern-Utah-Economic-Status-Report-Oct-2008-53-320.jpg)
Northern Utah Economic Status Report: Oct 2008
- 1. Northern Utah Human Resource Association An Economic Update (U.S., Utah, Davis & Weber) October 2008
- 2. The National Economic Context
- 3. U.S. Key Indicators: Output – GDP Growth Est 3.3 % (2 nd 2008) Inflation – Up 2.9% (2007), 5.4% August 2008 Population 0.7 % Job Growth - 0.3 % (August 2008) Unemployment 6.1% (August 2008) Construction – Housing starts off 36% (Aug08)
- 4. Utah Significant Slowing in the Economy – But for How Long?
- 5. Key Indicators: Population Job Growth Unemployment Average Wages Construction
- 6. Population
- 7. Percent Change in Population for States : 2006 to 2007 U.S. Rate = 1.0% Utah is in the Center of the Fastest Growing Region in the Country < 0.9 Source: U.S Census Bureau NM 1.5 UT 2.4 AZ 3.6 CA 0.8 NV 3.5 OR 1.7 TX 2.5 OK 1.0 CO 1.9 WA 1.7 ID 2.6 MT 1.1 WY 1.2 ND 0.2 SD 0.9 MN 0.8 NE 0.6 KS 0.6 IA 0.6 MO 0.8 AR 1.3 LA -4.9 WI 0.5 IL 0.5 IN 0.8 OH 0.1 FL 1.8 TN 1.4 KY 0.8 MS 0.1 AL 1.1 GA 2.5 SC 1.7 NC 2.1 VA 1.0 WV 0.2 PA 0.3 NY 0.0 ME 0.3 AK 1.0 HI 1.0 MA 0.1 VT 0.2 NH 0.6 RI -0.6 CT 0.1 NJ 0.2 DE 1.4 MD 0.5 MI -0.1 1.5 to 1.9 0.9 to 1.4 (At or Above the U.S. Rate) 2.0 or more (More than Double the U.S. Rate)
- 8. Percent Change in Population for States : 1990 to 2006 U.S. Rate = 20.4% Utah is in the Center of the Fastest Growing Region in the Country < 10% Source: U.S Census Bureau NM UT AZ CA NV OR TX OK CO WA ID MT WY ND SD MN NE KS IA MO AR LA WI IL IN OH FL TN KY MS AL GA SC NC VA WV PA NY ME AK HI MA VT NH RI CT NJ DE MD MI 20% to <40% 10% to <20% > 40%
- 9. The United States Population Is Sparse in the Mountain Region < 3 million Source: U.S Census Bureau, 2006 American Community Survey NM UT AZ CA NV OR TX OK CO WA ID MT WY ND SD MN NE KS IA MO AR LA WI IL IN OH FL TN KY MS AL GA SC NC VA WV PA NY ME AK HI MA VT NH RI CT NJ DE MD MI 6 to <15 million 3 to <6 million > 15 million
- 10. Utah Population by County: 2007 Source: Utah Population Estimates Committee Box Elder 47,491 Cache 109,022 Rich 2,162 Weber 220,781 Tooele 56,536 Salt Lake 1,018,904 Morgan 9,265 Summit 38,412 Daggett 969 Utah 501,447 Wasatch 21,951 Duchesne 16,163 Uintah 28,806 Juab 9,654 Sanpete 26,464 Carbon 19,730 Emery 10,461 Grand 9,125 Millard 13,414 Piute 1,385 Garfield 4,872 Sevier 20,442 Wayne 2,635 San Juan 14,807 Iron 44,813 Beaver 6,466 Washington 140,908 Kane 6,440 Davis 296,029 State = 2,699,554 20,000 to 99,999 < 19,999 > 500,000 100,000 to 499,999
- 11. Utah Population Growth Rates by County: 2006 to 2007 Source: Utah Population Estimates Committee Box Elder 3.3% Cache 3.2% Rich 1.9% Weber 2.3% Tooele 4.0% Salt Lake 2.3% Morgan 4.2% Summit 4.2% Daggett 2.1% Utah 5.5% Wasatch 4.3% Duchesne 3.7% Uintah 3.8% Juab 3.6% Sanpete 2.6% Carbon 1.2% Emery 0.2% Grand 1.1% Millard 1.4% Piute 0.9% Garfield 2.1% Sevier 2.3% Wayne 3.9% San Juan 1.1% Iron 3.2% Beaver 0.6% Washington 4.5% Kane 2.3% Davis 3.3% State Average = 3.2% Increase of 1.0% to 2.6% Change of less than 1.0% Increase of 4.0% or greater Increase of 2.7% to 3.9%
- 12. Utah Components of Population Change Source: Utah Population Estimates Committee
- 13. Job Growth
- 14. Strong Job Growth in Utah Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services 1960 to 2007 Average 3.3%
- 15. Year-Over Percent Change In Non-farm Jobs 05 Utah U.S.
- 16. Annual 2006-2007 Change in Nonfarm Jobs Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services; U.S Bureau of Labor Statistics.
- 17. Natural Resources Construction Manufacturing Trade, Trans., Utilities Information Financial Activities Education and Health Government Utah Nonfarm Industry Profile Numeric Change in Employment July 2007 – 2008 Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services Prof., and Business Leisure and Hospitality Other Services One industry is largely clouding the entire picture.
- 18. Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services, August 2008 Overall Housing-Related Utah Percentage Employment Change Overall – Housing-Related 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08
- 19. Unemployment
- 20. Annual 2007 Unemployment Rates Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services.
- 21. Here in Davis and Weber Counties
- 22. Population
- 23. Davis Weber Source: Governor’s Office of Planning & Budget, Demographic & Economic Analysis Section September 2008. 2000-2007 Growth Rate Davis 3.3% Weber 1.7% State 2.9%
- 24. Employment
- 25. Davis Weber May 2001 p = preliminary. Source: Utah Dept. Workforce Services, Workforce Information October 2008.
- 26. Davis County Employment 00 01 02 03 99 *2008 second quarter data is preliminary. Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services: Oct. 2008 04 06 05 07 08
- 27. Davis County Employment Growth Rates 00 01 02 03 99 *2008 second quarter data is preliminary Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services: Oct. 2008 04 05 06 07 08
- 28. Davis County Year-Over Construction Employment Growth Rates 2006-2008 *2008 second quarter data is preliminary. Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services: Oct. 2008
- 29. Davis County Year-Over Manufacturing Employment Growth Rates 2006-2008 *2008 second quarter data is preliminary. Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services: Oct. 2008
- 30. Weber County Employment 00 01 02 03 99 *2008 second quarter data is preliminary Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services: Oct. 2008 04 05 06 07 08
- 31. Weber County Employment Growth Rates 00 01 02 03 99 *2008 second quarter data is preliminary. Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services: Oct. 2008 04 05 06 07 08
- 32. Weber County Year-Over Construction Employment Growth Rates 2006-2008 *2008 second quarter data is preliminary. Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services: Oct. 2008
- 33. Weber County Year-Over Manufacturing Employment Growth Rates 2006-2008 *2008 second quarter data is preliminary. Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services: Oct. 2008
- 34. Unemployment
- 35. Annual Unemployment Rates Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services. U.S. Weber Utah Davis 3.2% 2.6% 4.5% 2.7%
- 36. State, Davis, and Weber Monthly Unemployment Rates* Davis Weber State *Seasonally Adjusted. Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services
- 37. $$$$ Wages $$$$
- 38. 2007 Average Monthly Wage by County Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services.
- 39. % Change in Average Monthly Wage 2006-2007 Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services.
- 40. Average Monthly Wage – 2007 State wages at $3,044 ($17.56/hr) are above both Davis $2,952 ($17.03/hr) and Weber $2,718 ($15.68/hr) $3044 $2952 $2718 Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services
- 41. Average Wage Change State, Davis, Weber 2005-2006 and 2006-2007* *Preliminary Source: Utah Department of workforce Services
- 42. Total Payroll Wage Change State, Davis, Weber 2005-2006 and 2006-2007* *Preliminary Source: Utah Department of workforce Services
- 43. Davis & Weber Counties Average Monthly Wage, 2007 Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services. Average Wage Davis $2,951 Weber $2,709
- 44. Mining Construction Manufacturing Trade, Trans., Util Information Financial Activities Education and Health Government Percent Change in Average Wages By Industry, Davis & Weber Counties, 2006-2007 Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services Prof., and Business Leisure and Hospitality Other Services
- 45. Construction
- 46. Davis & Weber Counties Construction Dwelling Permits Source: Bureau of Economic and Business Research, University of Utah.
- 47. Davis & Weber Counties Construction Permit Values (Millions of $) Source: Bureau of Economic and Business Research, University of Utah.
- 48. Davis & Weber Construction Activity Change Jan-Sept 2007 to Jan-Sept 2008 Source: Bureau of Economic and Business Research, University of Utah. Dwelling Permits Total Const.Valuation
- 49. Outlook
- 50. Jobs State Outlook Continued slowing to 0.2% in 2008 and going negative -1.0% in 2009. Growth around 2.0% after 2009. Davis Sliding to zero job growth in 2008. Slipping to – 0.5% in 2009. Weber Job growth of –0.5% for 2008. Still negative in 2009 at about -1.0%. Manufacturing job losses to continue.
- 51. Unemployment Increasing in all counties but not accelerating. More “job pausing,” i.e. not hiring, as firms determine which way the economy is going to move. Davis unemployment at 5.0% in 2009 Weber joblessness in the 5.0% to 5.5% range in 2009 Wages – upward pressure subsiding as economy slows. Construction Permitting at low levels but growing in 2009 and 2010 if lending resumes. Total construction activity held together mostly by nonresidential (commercial/industrial) building. Little residential activity until finance industry settles, qualifying standards set, and regulatory resolution known. Spending Slow and cautious. As soon as consumers “perceive” better times they will spend. Issues of income growth, job security, and inflation (energy prices).
- 52. Questions?
- 53. John Mathews Northern Regional Economist Department of Workforce Services ( jobs.utah.gov ) [email_address] (801) 526-9467 Powerpoint slide show at: http://jobs.utah.gov/opencms/wi/pubs/publicat.html Scroll down to presentations