Post Kyoto Options: The Next Climate Change Policy, Jon Rosales
- 1. Post-Kyoto Options: The Next Version of International Climate Change Policy Jon Rosales, Ph.D. Environmental Studies St. Lawrence University
- 7. Important point… GHGs mix evenly in the atmosphere.
- 8. Important point… GHGs mix evenly in the atmosphere. It doesn’t matter where they are reduced.
- 9. Important point… GHGs mix evenly in the atmosphere. It doesn’t matter where they are reduced. Or does it?
- 10. Kyoto Protocol
- 11. Kyoto Protocol: targets (% change from 1990 emissions)
- 12. Kyoto Protocol: GHGs Carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) Methane (CH 4 ) Nitrous oxide (N 2 O) Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) Perlurorocarbons (PFCs) Sulphur hexafluoride (SF 6 )
- 13. Kyoto Protocol : policy options 1. Domestic Conservation Efficiency 2. International Emissions Trading Project-based: CDM & JI
- 19. Post-Kyoto Where to start?
- 20. Post-Kyoto Where to start?
- 21. GHG emissions by country : top 25 (MtCO 2 e) 1. US 6,928 14. Mexico 512 2. China 4,938 15. Indonesia 503 3. EU-25 4,725 16. Australia 491 4. Russia 1,915 17. Ukraine 482 5. India 1,884 18. Iran 480 6. Japan 1,317 19. South Africa 417 7. Germany 1,009 20. Spain 381 8. Brazil 851 21. Poland 381 9. Canada 680 22. Turkey 355 10. UK 654 23. Saudi Arabia 341 11. Italy 531 24. Argentina 289 12. S. Korea 521 25. Pakistan 285 13. France 513 Source: WRI
- 22. Cumulative CO 2 emissions (1850-2002) 1. US 29.3% 18. Brazil 0.8% 2. EU-25 26.5% 21. Indonesia 0.5% 3. Russia 8.1% 25. Pakistan 0.2% 4. China 7.6% 5. Germany 7.3% 6. UK 6.3% 7. Japan 4.1% 8. France 2.9% 9. India 2.2% 10. Ukraine 2.2% _____ Source: WRI
- 23. GHG emissions per capita (TCe, 2000) 1. Australia 6.8 14. Spain 2.6 2. US 6.6 15. Italy 2.5 3. Canada 6.3 16. France 2.3 4. Saudi Arabia 4.3 17. Argentina 2.1 5. Russia 3.6 18. Iran 1.9 6. Germany 3.2 19. Turkey 1.5 7. UK 3.1 20. Mexico 1.4 8. South Korea 3.1 21. Brazil 1.3 9. Ukraine 2.9 22. China 1.1 10. Japan 2.9 23. Indonesia 0.7 11. EU-25 2.8 24. Pakistan 0.6 12. Poland 2.7 25. India 0.5 13. South Africa 2.6 _____ Source: Pew
- 24. GHG emissions intensity : TCO 2 e/$mil GDP 1. Ukraine 2,369 2. Russia 1,817 3. Iran 1,353 4. Saudi Arabia 1,309 5. Pakistan 1,074 6. China 1,023 7. South Africa 1,006 8. Poland 991 9. Australia 977 15. US 720 16. Brazil 679 20. Germany 471 21. EU-25 449 23. Japan 400 25. France 344 _______ Source: WRI
- 25. Corporations 122 corporations = 80% of all CO 2 emissions Exxon = 80% of Africa or South America ____ CoporateWatch; Coalition for Environmentally Responsible Economies
- 26. New York? NY = Turks and Caicos Islands, Niue, Saint Helena, Kiribati, Cook Islands, Montserrat, Vanuatu, Sao Tome and Principe, Dominica, Comoros, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Cape Verde, Tonga, Samoa, Nauru, Saint Vincent/Grenadines, Solomon Islands, Chad, Lesotho, Grenada, Saint Lucia, Western Sahara, The Gambia, Bhutan, Central African Republic, Guinea-Bissau, Maldives, Cayman Islands, Laos, Burundi, Liberia, Belize, Antigua and Barbuda, Cambodia, Benin, Mali, Seychelles, Somalia, French Polynesia, Rwanda, Sierra Leone, Fiji, Malawi, Aruba, French Guiana, Togo, Burkina Faso, Niger, Swaziland, Uganda, Afghanistan, Guinea, Eritrea, Mozambique, Madagascar, Haiti, Barbados, Suriname, Guadeloupe, Macau, Guyana, New Caledonia, Djibouti, Equatorial Guinea, Martinique, Zambia, Namibia, Reunion, Mauritius, Tanzania, Papua New Guinea, Nepal, Congo (Brazzaville), Mauritania, Ethiopia, Armenia, Botswana, The Bahamas, Nicaragua, Congo, Brunei, Paraguay, Senegal, Sudan, Ghana, Honduras, El Salvador, Costa Rica, Mongolia, Gabon, Cameroon, Cote d’Ivoire, Uruguay, Cyprus, Kenya, Yemen, Panama NYC = Ireland or Portugal
- 27. New York? POPULATION 19,047,800 = 641,056,700 US (288,212,300) = 151 countries (2,631,990,800) _____________ National Environmental Trust (2002)
- 28. How do we proceed?
- 29. How do we proceed? 1. Stabilize climate 2. Cost effective 3. Equitable 4. Flexible 5. Complementary and continuous 6. Politically palatable
- 30. Ability to Pay Agreed Domestic Carbon Taxes Bottom-Up Brazilian Proposal Broad but Shallow Beginning Climate Marshall Plan Contraction and Convergence Converging Markets Domestic Hybrid Trading Schemes Dual Intensity Targets Dual Track Equal Mitigation Costs Expanded “Common but Differentiated” Further Differentiation Global Framework Global Preference Score Global Triptych Graduation and Deepening Growth Baselines Harmonized Common Taxes Human Development Goals w/ Low Emissions Hybrid International Emissions Trading Post-Kyoto Proposals Insurance for Adaptation Funded by Emissions Trading International Agreements on Energy Efficiency Keep It Simple, Stupid (KISS) Long-Term Permit Program Multi-Dimensional Structure Multi-Sector Convergence Multistage and New Multistage Orchestra of Treaties Parallel Climate Policy Per Capita Allocation Portfolio Approach Purchase of a Global Public Good Safety Valve Safety Valve with Buyer Liability Soft Landing in Emissions Growth South-North Dialogue Sustainable Development Policies and Measures Technology Backstop Protocol Technology-Centered Approach Three-Part Policy Architecture Two-Part Commitments for Industrialized Countries UNFCCC Impact Response Instrument
- 31. Ability to Pay Agreed Domestic Carbon Taxes Bottom-Up Brazilian Proposal Broad but Shallow Beginning Climate Marshall Plan Contraction and Convergence Converging Markets Domestic Hybrid Trading Schemes Dual Intensity Targets Dual Track Equal Mitigation Costs Expanded “Common but Differentiated” Further Differentiation Global Framework Global Preference Score Global Triptych Graduation and Deepening Growth Baselines Harmonized Common Taxes Human Development Goals w/ Low Emissions Hybrid International Emissions Trading Post-Kyoto Proposals Insurance for Adaptation Funded by Emissions Trading International Agreements on Energy Efficiency Keep It Simple, Stupid (KISS) Long-Term Permit Program Multi-Dimensional Structure Multi-Sector Convergence Multistage and New Multistage Orchestra of Treaties Parallel Climate Policy Per Capita Allocation Portfolio Approach Purchase of a Global Public Good Safety Valve Safety Valve with Buyer Liability Soft Landing in Emissions Growth South-North Dialogue Sustainable Development Policies and Measures Technology Backstop Protocol Technology-Centered Approach Three-Part Policy Architecture Two-Part Commitments for Industrialized Countries UNFCCC Impact Response Instrument
- 32. Tonnes
- 33. 3.3 Tonnes
- 34. How to decide? 1. Stabilize climate: yes 2. Cost effective: yes 3. Equitable: yes 4. Flexible: yes 5. Complementary and continuous: yes 6. Politically palatable: mixed
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