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The blocked web, blessing or curse?
NYC, 7 February 2017
Dr Johnny Ryan, PageFair
@johnnyryan
Background: founded Demonware, created
the technology to enable huge multiplayer
games. Is used in games like…
pre-2012
PageFair team working
on adblocking since
2010. Established
PageFair in 2012.
2013 2014
2015
The cost of ad blocking
PageFair and Adobe 2015 Ad Blocking Report
2016
2017
Presentation at the Advertising Research Foundation, NYC, on the opportunity of adblocking
Presentation at the Advertising Research Foundation, NYC, on the opportunity of adblocking
Dec 16Apr 09
Global
Monthly figures
-
200 M
150 M
25 M
Apr 09 Apr 10 Apr 11 Apr 12 Apr 13 Apr 14 Apr 15 Apr 16
100 M
50 M
235 M
Dec 1
Global
Monthly figures
400 M
300 M
50 M
100 M
25 M
235 M
Global
Monthly figures
Desktop/Laptop
Mobile
Apr 09 Apr 10 Apr 11 Apr 12 Apr 13 Apr 14 Apr 15 Apr 16 Dec 1
50.2 million monthly active
PCs, and 1.6 million monthly
active mobile devices.
18% adblock penetration
Start of 2017
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 > 65
All ages are 1.5 times more likely than
average to have a bachelors degree
U.S. adblock users by age
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 > 65
All ages are 1.5 times more likely than
average to have a bachelors degree
3 times more likely to have a bachelors degree
U.S. adblock users by age
- Dec 16Dec 13
Desktop Growth
Dec 13 Dec 14 Dec 15 Dec 16
50 M
40 M
30 M
27 M
Desktop Growth
Dec 13 Dec 14 Dec 15 Dec 16
50 M
40 M
30 M
27 M
Summer months
Desktop Growth
Dec 13 Dec 14 Dec 15 Dec 16
50 M
40 M
30 M
27 M
Summer months
Linear. Not
exponential.
NOT THE
“ADPOCALYPSE”
ADBLOCKING
IS LIKE
CLIMATE CHANGE
Presentation at the Advertising Research Foundation, NYC, on the opportunity of adblocking
DIGITAL
AD INDUSTRY
SHORT TERMISM
Why people block
(no order)
•Security.
•Ads obscure content.
•Bandwidth.
•Privacy.
Why people block
(no order)
•Security.
•Ads obscure content.
•Bandwidth.
•Privacy.
•Because they can.
The “Blab-Off” TV remote control. 1952.
Presentation at the Advertising Research Foundation, NYC, on the opportunity of adblocking
Presentation at the Advertising Research Foundation, NYC, on the opportunity of adblocking
Presentation at the Advertising Research Foundation, NYC, on the opportunity of adblocking
80%learn about ad blocking from
friends / web / social media
HISTORY
(Antidote to short-termism)
“The best western history of the Internet to date”
Library Journal
“Engrossing”
Cory Doctorow, BoingBoing
“Consider this book your road map”
Marc Benioff,
CEO, Salesforce
“An immensely important book”
Kevin O'Sullivan,
Editor of The Irish Times  
“Enormously useful ... a great read”
Prof Tim Wu,
Columbia Law School
“Captures the sweep of the Internet’s development”
Prof Jonathan Zittrain, Harvard Law School
first physics web servers outside CERN
January 1991
44.8 million people 1995
188.5 million people 1998
1.6 billion people 2008
2.7 billion people January 2013
2.7 billion people blocked web: <1 % January 2013
Blocked Web (nerds)
December 20163.4 billion people blocked web: 11 %
50 million people
Now
286.9 million
TODAY IN THE UNITED STATES
THE
GOOD NEWS
77%of adblock users
willing to view ads
77%of adblock users
willing to view ads
up from
66% in
2014
61%
67% 67%
% of adblock users who express a
willingness to view each format,
multiple choice (2014)
Popover Video non-
skippable
mid-roll
Display with
audio
Video non-
skippable
pre-roll
Interstitial Animated
display
Video
skippable
mid-roll
Video
skippable
pre-roll
Text ad
30%
60%
Image
display
Image
display
25%
50%
35%
52%
Animated
display
Ads that
auto play
sound
Non-skippable
video
Native ads Skippable
video
% of adblock users who express a
willingness to view each format,
single choice (2017)
AD SERVING
ADBLOCKING
CAN NOT
TAMPER WITH
Publisher’s inventory
(LEAN display formats)
Regular audience Unblocked audience
IAB LEAN Advertisement
Advertisement
///
Advertisement
Advertisement
///
Publisher’s inventory
(All formats)
Tamper-proof serving
Regular ad Server
Listen
to users’
grievances.
3 Steps to Solve Adblocking
Listen Fix
to users’
grievances.
security,
UX,
bandwidth,
& privacy.
3 Steps to Solve Adblocking
Listen Fix
to users’
grievances.
security,
UX,
bandwidth,
& privacy.
3 Steps to Solve Adblocking
Listen Fix SERVE
to users’
grievances.
LEAN display
format using
tamper-proof
serving.
security,
UX,
bandwidth,
& privacy.
3 Steps to Solve Adblocking
Presentation at the Advertising Research Foundation, NYC, on the opportunity of adblocking
Technologies … that can block the
display of our ads … have had an
adverse effect on our financial results
and, if such technologies continue to
proliferate, in particular with respect
to mobile platforms, our future
financial results may be harmed.
- Facebook 2015 annual report
Desktop ad revenue grew 18%… Recent
quarters [were] about half of that
growth rate on a year-over-year basis.
… That acceleration in desktop revenue
growth is largely due to our efforts on
reducing the impact of ad blocking.
- David Wehner, Facebook CFO
quarterly earnings call, Q3 2016
Q3
Desktop ad revenue grew 22%, despite
a decline in desktop usage, helped by
our efforts to limit the impact of ad
blockers on advertisements served on
personal computers.
- David Wehner, Facebook CFO
quarterly earnings call, Q4 2016
Q4
SOLVE CMO’s
3 TERRIBLE PROBLEMS
OF DIGITAL MARKETING
WEB CLUTTER
adFRAUD
VERSATILITY
#1
Ad Fraud
Attention = PLENTIFUL.
Adblock user
Ads = SCARCE.
Attention = PLENTIFUL.
Adblock user
Ads = SCARCE.
Definitely human.
#2
Clutter
Ad
Ad
Ad
Ad
Ad
Ad Ad Ad Ad Ad
Ad
Ad
ATTENTION V ADVERTISING
SCARCE
ATTENTION
OVER-ABUNDANT
ADVERTISING
ATTENTION V ADVERTISING
ABUNDANT
ATTENTION
SCARCE
ADVERTISING
ATTENTION V ADVERTISING
#3
Versatility
BTL
ATL
66% of online advertising is performance advertising, according to IAB/PwC Internet Ad Revenue Report, HY 2015
Most normal
Web users BTL
ATL
AWARENESS
CONSIDERATION
INTENTION
PURCHASE
66% of online advertising is performance advertising, according to IAB/PwC Internet Ad Revenue Report, HY 2015
Adblock
users BTL
ATL
AWARENESS
CONSIDERATION
INTENTION
PURCHASE
Adblock
users BTL
ATL
AWARENESS
CONSIDERATION
INTENTION
PURCHASE
Adblock
users BTL
ATL
AWARENESS
CONSIDERATION
INTENTION
PURCHASE
TIME TO ENGAGE
WITH THE
BLOCKED WEB
“Appeal” Please turn off
your adblockerTamper-proof
Adblock Detection
“Appeal”
Ads blocked
Please turn off
your adblocker
No
Tamper-proof
Adblock Detection
“Appeal”
Ads blocked
Regular Ads
Please turn off
your adblocker
No
Yes
LEAN AD
Advertiseme
Tamper-proof
Adblock Detection
“Wall”
“Appeal”
Mandatory:
Turn off
your adblocker
No
Yes
Regular Ads
50% - 90%
Exit Your Site
Advertiseme
Ads blocked
Regular Ads
Please turn off
your adblocker
No
Yes
Advertiseme
Tamper-proof
Adblock Detection
Tamper-proof
Adblock Detection
LEAN AD
LEAN AD
“Wall”
“Inform”
“Appeal”
Mandatory:
Turn off
your adblocker
No
Yes
Regular Ads
50% - 90%
Exit Your Site
Advertiseme
Restored Ads
Advertiseme
Welcome
to better ads!
Ads blocked
Regular Ads
Please turn off
your adblocker
No
Yes
Advertiseme
Tamper-proof
Adblock Detection
Tamper-proof
Adblock Detection
Tamper-proof
Adblock Detection
LEAN AD
LEAN AD
LEAN AD
“Wall”
“Inform”
“Appeal”
“Choice”
Mandatory:
Turn off
your adblocker
No
Yes
Regular Ads
50% - 90%
Exit Your Site
Advertiseme
Restored Ads
Advertisement
Advertiseme
Welcome
to better ads!
Ads blocked
Regular Ads
Please turn off
your adblocker
No
Yes
Advertiseme
Regular Ads
Restored Ads
Advertiseme
Please turn off
your adblocker
No
Yes
Advertiseme
Tamper-proof
Adblock Detection
Tamper-proof
Adblock Detection
Tamper-proof
Adblock Detection
Tamper-proof
Adblock Detection
LEAN AD
LEAN AD
LEAN AD
LEAN AD
LEAN AD
“Wall”
“Inform”
“Direct”
“Appeal”
“Choice”
Mandatory:
Turn off
your adblocker
No
Yes
Regular Ads
50% - 90%
Exit Your Site
LEAN AD
Advertiseme
Restored Ads
LEAN AD
Advertiseme
Welcome
to better ads!
Restored Ads
LEAN AD
Advertiseme
Ads blocked
Regular Ads
Please turn off
your adblocker
No
Yes
LEAN AD
Advertiseme
Regular Ads
Restored Ads
LEAN AD
Advertiseme
Please turn off
your adblocker
No
Yes
LEAN AD
Advertiseme
Tamper-proof
Adblock Detection
Tamper-proof
Adblock Detection
Tamper-proof
Adblock Detection
Tamper-proof
Adblock Detection
Tamper-proof
Adblock Detection
Listen Fix SERVE
to users’
grievances.
LEAN display
format using
tamper-proof
serving.
security,
UX,
bandwidth,
& privacy.
PageFair’s 3 Steps to Solving Adblocking
1. Adblock is a new remote control. It will
not go away.
2. Respond like Facebook: Listen to
grievances, Fix these problems, 

then Serve ads in a tamper-proof way.
3.The unblocked web is an opportunity.
Summary
@johnnyryan PageFair.com

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Presentation at the Advertising Research Foundation, NYC, on the opportunity of adblocking