Promoting Nigeria’s non-oil Economy
- 1. PROMOTING NIGERIA’S NON-OIL ECONOMY Paper presented by Henrii Nwanguma, Executive Secretary of LAKAJI Development Alliance (LDA) at the Institute of Directors Nigeria‘s Members Evening on the 27th of August, 2015
- 2. Overview • Introduction • Scene-setting: Precolonial, Colonial, Post Independence • Present : Size and Structure of the Nigerian Economy • Current Challenges • Suggestions on the Way Forward • Thinking Outside the Box: The LAKAJI Corridor Initiative and the LAKAJI Development Alliance. • Conclusion
- 3. Introduction • Promote: “…support or actively encourage (a cause, venture, etc.); further the progress of…”
- 4. Pre-Colonial /Pre-Amalgamation (~1900) Dominated by empires and kingdoms like Songhai Empire (stretched from the Senegal and Gambia rivers and incorporated part of Hausaland), Kanem-Bornu Empire, Edo Benin Empire, Oyo Empire, Onitsha Kingdom, Arochukwu kingdom (dominated South-eastern Nigeria with pockets of influence in Equatorial Guinea and Cameroon). Kingdoms and empires traded spices, grains, leather, animals with each other and others further afield. They also actively took part in the trans-Saharan slave trade and the Atlantic slave trade. With the abolition of slavery came the "Scramble for Africa", and in the case of Nigeria, it concluded with the British protectorates of Northern and Southern Nigeria in 1900.
- 5. Colonial /Amalgamation – Independence (1901-1960) Nigeria in 1900 and the Lagos Colony, the Southern and Northern Protectorates with the Amalgamation Document May 15, 1913
- 6. Colonial /Amalgamation – Independence (1901-1960) Amalgamation Day on Tinubu Street in 1914 in Lagos
- 7. Colonial /Amalgamation – Independence (1901-1960)
- 9. Structure and size of the Economy (GDP Stats/Pie Chart) The Present
- 10. Structure of the Nigerian Economy The Present
- 11. The Challenges: • Growing Youthful Population (at 3.5% per annum) • 50% will live in cities within 25 years. • Lack of Investment Funds (and Political Will) by Government • to upgrade and extend the most critical infrastructure • to prepare the new sources of growth for private investment • to continue (stop) running services best run by private sector • One major Income Source • Low Commodity Prices (Particularly Crude Petroleum) • Competing Suppliers of this one commodity springing Up closer to main markets The Present Recent Headline: HOW MOZAMBIQUE CAN BENEFIT MORE FROM ITS MASSIVE GAS DISCOVERY Tendai Dube http://www.cnbcafrica.com/news/southern-africa/2015/08/24/mozambique-gas-resource- development/# Last Updated: 24 August 2015|18:49 GMT Mozambique needs to learn how to benefit more from its massive gas discovery. In 2010 Mozambique discovered the second largest gas find in the world since Qatar but the Southern African country still needs to benefit from the valuable resource… …” “It’s huge, I don’t think people really understand quite how big it is, you have got enough gas there to fuel South African energy, for example, for 150 to 200 years on its own…”
- 12. The Present Is infrastructure growth keeping pace? Do we have the jobs? Can we feed, clothe and house our people?
- 13. What must Nigeria Do? • Come to terms with her Realities. An apolitical audit required: Population, stock and distribution of assets (cultivable land, water resources, mineral resources, human resources) • Understand that there are only limited global sources for investment and they are not emotional • Get to work by making the country more attractive to retain existing and attract new business (corruption, ease of doing business, incentives, rule of law). Money Chases opportunity • Unlock the under-tapped” industries (the arts, entertainment, tourism, sports, housing, information and communications technology, ship-building and offshore fabrication, textiles, mining, transport – railways and waterways, medical & pharmaceutical sciences, etc.) • Single-mindedly engage in only what we have comparative advantage for no matter how emotionally appealing The Possible Way Out
- 14. What must Nigeria Do? (contd.) • Have audacious dreams that will lift more people out of poverty. The aim is to grow the middle class to be the source of effective demand • Criminalise illiteracy. Make qualitative Education a right of all no matter the age and circumstances. Public education once had quality • Create linkages within and between sectors. Reduce inefficiency • Involve the diasporas as a cohesive source of ideas and funds (tax?) The Possible Way Out
- 15. The Possible Way Out A tale of Two Cities or Audacity of a Dream?
- 16. The Possible Way Out: The LAKAJI Corridor Example The LAKAJI Development Alliance (LDA) • Apublic-private partnership with a focus on: Advocacy for the creation of the LAKAJI Corridor as a special economic development zone in Nigeria for enhanced trade and competitiveness Supporting the transformation of the LAKAJI Corridor into a multimodal trade expressway that presents unmatchable value proposition for: • Attracting Investment • Creating Jobs • Generating Wealth • The corridor construct is a framework “to drive the policy and legislative changes from the three tiers of government necessary to provide the enabling environment to attract investments into transport, logistics, agricultural and industrial value chains along the corridor” • The corridor is conceived as a single linear entity with harmonised policies, legislation and incentives
- 17. LAKAJI Corridor, Trans-African Highways, New Silk Road.
- 18. LAKAJI Corridor, Trans-African Highways, New Silk Road. “The New Silk Road may be the dream to inspire coming generations. This seems all the more the case when set in the historical context of the last half-century. If it were to become reality, it could be a major inspirational epochal game-changer. Whether it’s a dream or a nightmare depends in great part on the spirit with which the opportunity is seized and the challenge tackled.” Jean-Pierre Lehmann (http://www.forbes.com/sites/jplehmann/2015/05/27/the-new-silk-road-a- visionary-dream-for-the-21st-century/)
- 19. As part of our desire to improve the agricultural supply systems in Nigeria, the LDA in conjunction with our partners like USAID|NEXTT, Global Cold Chain Alliance (GCCA), the Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (FMARD), Nigerian Investment Promotion Commission (NIPC), the National Centre for Cold-Chain Development (NCCD) of India, will be hosting the International Cold Chain Summit 2015 at the Federal Palace Hotel, Lagos on the 26th and 27th of October as part of a "LAKAJI Week" running from the 25th - 30th of October. The Vice-President has been confirmed as our guest. Other scheduled activities include the launch od a LAKAJI Governors Forum, and a LAKAJI Investment Forum. Near-term Activities of the LDA to make the Corridor a Reality
- 20. Conclusion • It takes rigour, not accidents. • We must learn from our mistakes and never fear to make them in the first place. • We must rebuild our pride and confidence as doers, creators and producers and not professional uninformed critics and consumers. • We must redefine ourselves based on our realities and on what is, not what we think is. • On the long run we must execute, with all discipline required, an unwavering grand long-term vision with lots of incremental steps. • We must think through our options very carefully to maximise efficiency in resource allocation. • Agriculture and Minerals will only make sense if we retain/add as much value locally as possible due to low prices of primary commodities. • Intra- and inter-sectoral linkages must be maximised. We must explore hidden markets. • We must consciously build effective demand at home through all kinds of near- and long-term measures including a home-grown, market-driven consumer credit policy, well administered producer subsidies. • There is no easy way out.
- 21. Thank You… HENRII NWANGUMA Executive Secretary LAKAJI DEVELOPMENT ALLIANCE Email: [email protected] please also copy [email protected] Mob: +234-703-8151056; +234-802-3430419 Tel: +234-1-277-8700; +234-1-277-8701 Project Office: 1679 Karimu Kotun Street Ground Floor, (Legacy Investment Management) Victoria Island, Lagos, Nigeria