Q1 2015 Earnings Results
- 1. First Quarter 2015 Earnings Results April 23, 2015 POLARIS INDUSTRIES INC.
- 2. Safe Harbor Except for historical information contained herein, the matters set forth in this document, including but not limited to management’s expectations regarding 2015 sales, shipments, margins, currencies, net income and cash flow, the opportunities for expansion and diversification of the Company’s business and the Company’s guidance on earnings per share from continuing operations are forward-looking statements that involve certain risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those forward-looking statements. Potential risks and uncertainties include such factors as product offerings, promotional activities and pricing strategies by competitors; manufacturing operation expansion initiatives; acquisition integration costs; warranty expenses; foreign currency exchange rate fluctuations; environmental and product safety regulatory activity; effects of weather; commodity costs; uninsured product liability claims; uncertainty in the retail and wholesale credit markets; performance of affiliate partners; changes in tax policy and overall economic conditions, including inflation, consumer confidence and spending and relationships with dealers and suppliers. Investors are also directed to consider other risks and uncertainties discussed in our 2014 annual report and Form 10-K filed by the Company with the Securities and Exchange Commission. The Company does not undertake any duty to any person to provide updates to its forward-looking statements. The data source for retail sales figures included in this presentation is registration information provided by Polaris dealers in North America and compiled by the Company or Company estimates. The Company must rely on information that its dealers supply concerning retail sales, and other retail sales data sources and this information is subject to revision. Q1-2015 4-23-15 2
- 3. Scott W. Wine Chairman & CEO First Quarter 2015 Earnings Results April 23, 2015 POLARIS INDUSTRIES INC.
- 4. Record 1st quarter sales, operating income and net income Sales of Motorcycles +74%; PG&A +12%; ORV +11% Sales in EMEA -15%; Asia Pacific +6%; Latin America +75% Earnings per share increased 9% to a record $1.30 Gross profit margin down 66 bps, primarily currency and mix pressures Operating income margin up 28 bps Pretax profit impacted by $16 million currency hit in Q1 4Q1-2015 4-23-15 $888.3 Q1 2014 Q1 2015 Q1 Net IncomeQ1 Sales Record Results In-spite of Stiff Currency Pressures Q1 2015 Sales and Income ($ in millions) Q1 Operating Income $126.7 $150.3 Q1 2014 Q1 2015 $80.9 $88.6 Q1 2014 Q1 2015 $1,033.3
- 5. 5Q1-2015 4-23-15 Hammerhead AcquisitionTimbersled Acquisition Complementary to Snow Business Recent Acquisitions Builds on Growing Asian Business Light Utility Vehicles (Gas/Electric) MSRP-US $3,499 - $5,499 Adult go-karts MSRP-US $1,999-$2,799 Youth go-karts MSRP-US $1,099 - $1,699 Leverage low-cost supplier/manufacturing base Expand entry level go-kart / ORV business Increase emerging market access Cultural fit - western educated, ORV background New snow category complements mountain business Fast growing and profitable New customer base – off-road motorcyclists in snowbelt Mountain Horse Conversion Kit MSRP-US $5,300 - $6,500
- 6. Polaris Strategic Objectives Vision & Strategy VISION STRATEGY Fuel the passion of riders, workers and outdoor enthusiasts around the world by delivering innovative, high quality vehicles, products, services and experiences that enrich their lives. Polaris will be a highly profitable, customer centric, $8B global enterprise by 2020. We will make the best off-road and on-road vehicles and products for recreation, transportation and work supporting consumer, commercial and military applications. Our winning advantage is our innovative culture, operational speed and flexibility, and passion to make quality products that deliver value to our customers. Strategic Objectives Best in Powersports PLUS Global Market Leadership Strong Financial Performance Growth Through Adjacencies LEAN Enterprise is Competitive Advantage 5-8% annual organic growth >33% of Polaris revenue >$2B from acquisitions & new markets Significant Quality, Delivery & Cost Improvement Sustainable, profitable growth Net Income Margin >10% Guiding Principles Performance Priorities Best People, Best Team Safety & Ethics Always Customer Loyalty Growth Margin Expansion Product & Quality Leadership LEAN Enterprise GROW SALES >$8 Billion by 2020 12% CAGR INCREASE NET INCOME >10% of Sales by 2020 13% CAGR Q1-2015 4-23-15 6
- 7. Full Year 2015 Guidance Narrowing EPS guidance – raising lower end of range North American retail sales growth and market share gains expected to continue International sales now projected to decline low-single digits% (weak EMEA & currencies) Total sales projected up 9% to 12% (unchanged from previous guidance) Net income margin projected to hold above long-term goal of 10% 7Q1-2015 4-23-15 $4,480 2014 Actual FY 2015 Guidance $6.65 2014 Actual FY 2015 Guidance Maintaining Full Year 2015 Sales & EPS Guidance In-spite of Currency Pressures Diluted EPSTotal Company Sales Up 9% to 12% $4,890 to $5,025 Up 9% to 12% $7.27 to $7.42 ($ millions)
- 8. Bennett Morgan President & COO First Quarter 2015 Earnings Results April 23, 2015 POLARIS INDUSTRIES INC.
- 9. 9Q1-2015 4-23-15 Polaris Retail Sales Solid Retail Quarter for Most Businesses; Slingshot Strong 7% 15% 12% 13% 8% Q1-14 Q2-14 Q3-14 Q4-14 Q1-15 Polaris N.A. retail 8% for Q1 2015 vs. Q1 2014 Gained share in powersports driven by motorcycles ORV market share flat in Q1 – Intense competitive promotional pressure Motorcycle Q1 retail strong; double last year Indian and Victory and gaining share; Slingshot stronger than expectations Polaris N.A. Snow retail high-single digits for season driving increased market share, but Q1 low-double digits % N.A. Snowmobile industry ended the season mid-single digits %, strongest year since ’08/’09 N.A. Powersports Retail Sales – Q1 2015 Industry Retail Sales +4% +4% Industry Q1 2014 Industry Q1 2015
- 10. Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2015 2014 2013 2012 10Q1-2015 4-23-15 N.A. Dealer Inventory ORV Dealer Inventory High, but Expect to Improve by Year-end Dealer Inventory – Q1 2015 4% Existing ORV Models 3% New ORV Models 3% ACE / New Segments 2% Snowmobiles 1% Slingshot 4% New Dealers 17% Total Increase Polaris Q1 2015 N.A. dealer inventory 17% vs. 2014 ORV mid-teens % driven primarily by more new models & market categories & RFM ATV segment stocking Motorcycles about 20%; Indian motorcycles and Slingshots , Victory low double-digits % Snowmobiles mid-twenties % due to lower snowfall levels in key regions Continue to optimize RFM business model in ATVs Improving model to be more flexible/nimble going forward Current ORV capacity limitations requiring level-loaded production ahead of key spring and fall seasonality Targeting year-over-year unit and percent decreases throughout 2015 through improved turns
- 11. Production delays in motorcycles – paint system, new product readiness Began shipping Indian Scouts very late in Q1 New paint system ramped-up throughout Q1; progress accelerating Gross Profit Margin in Q1 due to currency and product mix pressures New LEAN Value Improvement Process (VIP) implemented to improve quality, delivery & cost Factory inventory up 30% vs. 2014; PG&A, raw materials, mix and acquisitions Polaris product quality good and improving; #1 in NPS for motorcycles, SxS & ATVs 11Q1-2015 4-23-15 Q1 2014 Q1 2015 FY 2015 Guidance Gross Profit Margin Challenging Circumstances in Q1 LEAN is a Competitive Advantage 29.1% -66 bps 28.4% Up to +20 bps 29.4% to 29.6% Future Plant Rendering – 600,000 sq ft
- 12. Q1 2014 (Reclassified) Q1 2015 FY 2014 (Reclassified) FY 2015 Guidance Strong N.A. sales offset by weaker international sales (currency) N.A. Polaris ORV retail sales mid-single digits %; Industry mid-single digits % - market share flat Polaris side-by-side retail sales almost 10%; both RANGER and RZR grew sales ATVs low single digits due to intense competitive promotional pressure; ACE significantly RZR retail in premium category significantly: RZR XP 900 Trails & RZR XP 1000s Competitive promotion and discounting environment significantly in Q1 Polaris upcoming MY’16 new product introductions will add to industry-leading armada 12Q1-2015 4-23-15 Polaris ORV Sales Armada of Products Offsetting Competitive Promotional Pressures Off-Road Vehicles Up mid-single digits % (unchanged) +11% $645.4 $580.1 ($ millions) +15% $2,793.1* *2014 reclassified to exclude Defense and Commercial Sales
- 13. Q1 2014 Q1 2015 FY 2014 FY 2015 Guidance Polaris N.A. motorcycle Q1 retail sales double last year Indian significantly, new products well-accepted; share Victory retail sales slightly; share Slingshot exceeding expectations; increasing line rate Significant order backlog in all brands Indian Motorcycle distribution expanding Over 200 N.A. dealers signed; 150 retailing at quarter-end Challenges in production and paint system throughout Q1 13Q1-2015 4-23-15 Polaris Motorcycle Sales Retail Solid In-spite of Production & Capacity Delays Motorcycles Up 55% to 70% (increased)+74% $137.4 $78.9 ($ millions) +59% $348.7 Retailing Dealers Victory Motorcycle Indian Motorcycle Slingshot North America 440 150 370 (>200 Signed) International 150 140 0 WORLDWIDE 590 290 370
- 14. Polaris retail high-single digits % season-end March 31, 2015; Q1 low-double digits % N.A. Industry mid-single digits % for the season - best industry performance in six years Gained share in 2014/2015 season on strength of new Axys® platform Strong MY’16 introductions, again Award winning Axys® platform expanded into RMK line – 7 new MY’16 mountain sled models N.A. consumer snowchecks and MY’16 dealer orders slightly vs. 2014 Offset by weakness in Europe and Russia due to poor snow conditions and currencies Sales guidance now includes Timbersled acquisition 14Q1-2015 4-23-15 Polaris Snowmobile Sales Clear #2 Market Share Player Snowmobiles ($ millions) Q1 2014 Q1 2015 FY 2014 FY 2015 Guidance Down low-single digits % (increased) -7% $14.5$15.6 +7% $322.4 ALL-NEW 2016 AXYS® RMK® Platform >>Improved Power-to-weight Ratio >>Axys® Chassis >>800 H.O. Cleanfire® Engine >> New Suspension & Tracks >>Lightest Mountain Sled – 408 lbs.
- 15. Global Adjacent Markets 15Q1-2015 4-23-15 Global Adjacent Market Sales Growing Outside Powersports ($ millions) *2014 reclassified to include Defense and Commercial Sales New Organization; focus on growth outside Powersports Work & Transportation (“W&T”), Military W&T Sales mid-single digits % N.A. W&T sales due to strong direct sales and Ariens partnership International W&T sales due to currency Aixam, Mega and Goupil growing and meeting expectations, excluding currency Defense sales double-digits % driven by DAGOR™, MRZR™ & International sales Additional shipment of DAGOR to U.S. & Int’l Special Forces FY 2014 (Reclassified) FY 2015 Guidance Q1 2014 (Reclassified) Q1 2015 Up 5% to 10% (decreased)+7% $65.4$61.2 +24% $273.3*
- 16. 50% 43% 7% Record Q1 sales; 12% ORV sales 16%, Motorcycles 78% All categories increased sales in Q1 Accessories 23%, Apparel 8%, Parts 1% (poor snow) U.S. sales 21%; Canada & International sales (currency) Aftermarket brand portfolio & e-commerce strong (Kolpin, Klim & Pro Amor) 16Q1-2015 4-23-15 PG&A Sales Expect Sales to Accelerate as Year Progresses PG&A Q1 Sales by Category Q1 Sales by Product Line Q1 2014 Q1 2015 FY 2014 FY 2015 Guidance Up high-teens % (unchanged)+21% $742.1 $152.6 ($ millions) +12% $170.6 63% 13% 7% 13% 4% Accessories Apparel Parts Motorcycles Adjacent Markets Other Snow ORV
- 17. International 17Q1-2015 4-23-15 Focused on Execution in Challenging Markets and Currency Pressures International Sales International sales 7% in Q1, currency impact of $23 million All product categories in Q1 Asia Pacific 6% – strong market performance in China, New Zealand and India Latin America 75% – Mexico strong, dealer direct model working EMEA 15% (primarily currency and Russia) Poland plant ramping and on-plan Eicher/Polaris JV to begin production 2H 2015 Q1 2014 Q1 2015 FY 2014 FY 2015 Guidance Q1 Sales by Product Q1 Sales by Geography Down low-single digits % (decreased) +16% $685.1$165.1 ($ millions) -7% $153.1 EMEA Asia/Pac LatAm EMEA Asia/Pac LatAm 65% 10% 5% 13% 7% ORV 43% 21% 13% 18% Motorcycles 5% Snow Adjacent Markets Latin America Asia Aus/NZ ME/Africa PG&A Europe
- 18. Mike Malone V.P. Finance & CFO First Quarter 2015 Earnings Results April 23, 2015 POLARIS INDUSTRIES INC.
- 19. METRIC GUIDANCE Sales Components Off-Road Vehicles Up mid-single digits % (reclassified 2014 actuals) Snowmobiles Down low-single digits % Motorcycles Up 55% to 70% Global Adjacent Markets Up 5% to 10% (reclassified 2014 actuals) PG&A Up high-teens % International Down low-single digits % Total Company sales Up 9% to 12% Gross profit margin Flat to Up 20 bps Operating expenses (% of sales) About flat Income from financial services Up mid-single digits % Income taxes 34.75% to 35.25% of pretax income Net income Up 9% to 12% EPS, diluted $7.27 to $7.42 (+9% to +12%) Solid Growth Expectations 2015 Full Year Guidance Q1-2015 4-23-15 19 Change in Guidance Increased/ favorable Decreased/ unfavorable Unchanged Narrowed
- 20. METRIC Actual Q1 2014 Actual Q1 2015 Guidance FY 2015 Prior period 29.0% 29.1% 29.4% Production volume/capacity Product cost reduction efforts Commodity costs Currency rates Higher selling prices Product mix New plant start-up costs Warranty costs Depreciation/Tooling amortization Sales promotional costs Current period 29.1% 28.4% 29.4% to 29.6% Change +10 bps -66 bps Flat to Up +20 bps 2015 Gross Profit Margin Guidance Improvement to gross profit margin % Impairment to gross profit margin % Neutral to gross profit margin % Q1-2015 4-23-15 20
- 21. Significant Impact in Q1 2015, Expected to Persist for Remainder of 2015 21 Foreign Currency Exposures for Polaris Q1-2015 4-23-15 Foreign Currency Hedging Contracts Currency Impact on Net Income % of Remaining Notional Avg. Exchange Compared to Prior Year Period Foreign Currency Currency Position 2015 Cash Flow Exposure Amounts (US $ in Thousands) Rate of Open Contracts Q1 2015 Est. Remainder of 2015 Canadian Dollar (CAD) Long 75% $205,200 $0.79 to 1 CAD Negative Negative Australian Dollar (AUD) Long 30% $10,700 $0.81 to 1 AUD Negative Negative Euro (EUR) Long 0% - - Negative Negative Japanese Yen (JPY) Short 70% $16,900 110 Yen to $1 Positive Positive Mexican Peso (MXN) Short 70% $28,000 14.3 Peso to $1 Positive Positive F/X Impacts vs. 2014 ($ in millions) Actual Q1 2015 FY 2015 Expectations* (Included in Guidance) Sales ($32) ($140 - $160) Gross Profit ($12) ($65 - $75) Operating Expenses $5 $15 - $17 Other Expense ($9) ($15 - $17) Pretax Income ($16) ($65 - $75) *Assumes exchange rates remain in about same range as of the end of Q1. Net income expectations for 2015 include the impact of existing F/X hedging contracts below. Open F/X Hedging Contracts as of April 23, 2015
- 22. Balance Sheet and Liquidity Profile $ In millions (except per share and rate data) Q1 2015 Fav / (UnFav) Q1 2014 2015 Full Year Guidance Cash $111.0 9% Increase from 2014 Debt / Capital lease obligations $329.1 1% Similar to 2014 Credit facility $500.0 43% Increased $150M from 2014 Factory inventory $629.3 (30%) Improved Turns Capital expenditures $30.8 (22%) >$250M Depreciation and amortization $37.1 (32%) Increase about 20% from 2014 Operating cash flow from continuing operations $4.2 ($40.5) Increase at higher % than net income Dividend (per share) $0.53 10% Increase 10% over 2014 Polaris Acceptance receivables $1,221.9 28% About flat with 2014 Retail credit – Approval rate – Penetration rate 56% 32% +4% +2% Rates stable Q1-2015 4-23-15 22
- 23. Scott W. Wine Chairman & CEO First Quarter 2015 Earnings Results April 23, 2015 POLARIS INDUSTRIES INC.
- 25. 25Q1-2015 4-23-15 Deep Bench Ensures Continuity Organizational Changes Chris Wolf V.P. – Snowmobiles 12+ Years with Polaris GM – Snowmobiles 2014 Dir. Snowmobiles 2011 Sales & Service Craig Scanlon V.P. – Slingshot 10+ Years with Polaris GM – Side-by-Sides 2012 Dir. ORV Sales & Mktg 2010 ORV Mgmt. & Sales Mike Jonikas – Retiring in May 2015 V.P. – Snowmobiles & Slingshot 15 Years with Polaris V.P. – Sales & Corp. Marketing GM – Side-by-Sides Director of ORV Marketing