R forecasting Example

Feb 10, 2017Download as DOCX, PDF1 like348 views

This document describes using time series analysis in R to model and forecast tractor sales data. The sales data is transformed using logarithms and differencing to make it stationary. An ARIMA(0,1,1)(0,1,1)[12] model is fitted to the data and produces forecasts for 36 months ahead. The forecasts are plotted along with the original sales data and 95% prediction intervals.

Prepared by VOLKAN OBAN
TIME SERIES ANALYSIS with R
An Example:
Code:
> data<-read.csv("Tractor-Sales.csv")
> data<-ts(data[,2],start = c(2003,1),frequency = 12)
>
> plot(data, xlab="Years", ylab = "Tractor Sales")
> plot(diff(data),ylab=”Differenced Tractor Sales”)
> plot(log10(data),ylab="Log (Tractor Sales)")
> plot(diff(log10(data)),ylab="Differenced Log (Tractor Sales)")

plot(diff(log10(data)),ylab=”Differenced Log (Tractor Sales)”)

require(forecast)
ARIMAfit <- auto.arima(log10(data), approximation=FALSE,trace=FALSE)
summary(ARIMAfit)
Series: log10(data)
ARIMA(0,1,1)(0,1,1)[12]
Coefficients:
ma1 sma1
-0.4047 -0.5529
s.e. 0.0885 0.0734
sigma^2 estimated as 0.0002571: log likelihood=354.4
AIC=-702.79 AICc=-702.6 BIC=-694.17
Training set error measures:
ME RMSE MAE MPE MAPE
Training set 0.0002410698 0.01517695 0.01135312 0.008335713 0.4462212
MASE ACF1
Training set 0.2158968 0.0106260
pred <- predict(ARIMAfit, n.ahead = 36)
pred
$pred
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul
2015 2.754168 2.753182 2.826608 2.880192 2.932447 2.912372 2.972538
2016 2.796051 2.795065 2.868491 2.922075 2.974330 2.954255 3.014421
2017 2.837934 2.836948 2.910374 2.963958 3.016213 2.996138 3.056304
Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2015 2.970585 2.847264 2.797259 2.757395 2.825125
2016 3.012468 2.889147 2.839142 2.799278 2.867008
2017 3.054351 2.931030 2.881025 2.841161 2.908891
$se
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
2015 0.01603508 0.01866159 0.02096153 0.02303295 0.02493287 0.02669792
2016 0.03923008 0.04159145 0.04382576 0.04595157 0.04798329 0.04993241
2017 0.06386474 0.06637555 0.06879478 0.07113179 0.07339441 0.07558934
Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2015 0.02835330 0.02991723 0.03140337 0.03282229 0.03418236 0.03549035
2016 0.05180825 0.05361850 0.05536960 0.05706700 0.05871534 0.06031866
2017 0.07772231 0.07979828 0.08182160 0.08379608 0.08572510 0.08761165
plot(data,type=”l”,xlim=c(2004,2018),ylim=c(1,1600),xlab =
“Year”,ylab = “Tractor Sales”)
lines(10^(pred$pred),col=”blue”)
lines(10^(pred$pred+2*pred$se),col=”purple”)
lines(10^(pred$pred-2*pred$se),col=”purple”)

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R forecasting Example

1. Prepared by VOLKAN OBAN TIME SERIES ANALYSIS with R An Example: Code: > data<-read.csv("Tractor-Sales.csv") > data<-ts(data[,2],start = c(2003,1),frequency = 12) > > plot(data, xlab="Years", ylab = "Tractor Sales") > plot(diff(data),ylab=”Differenced Tractor Sales”) > plot(log10(data),ylab="Log (Tractor Sales)") > plot(diff(log10(data)),ylab="Differenced Log (Tractor Sales)")

3. plot(diff(log10(data)),ylab=”Differenced Log (Tractor Sales)”)

4. require(forecast) ARIMAfit <- auto.arima(log10(data), approximation=FALSE,trace=FALSE) summary(ARIMAfit) Series: log10(data) ARIMA(0,1,1)(0,1,1)[12] Coefficients: ma1 sma1 -0.4047 -0.5529 s.e. 0.0885 0.0734 sigma^2 estimated as 0.0002571: log likelihood=354.4 AIC=-702.79 AICc=-702.6 BIC=-694.17 Training set error measures: ME RMSE MAE MPE MAPE Training set 0.0002410698 0.01517695 0.01135312 0.008335713 0.4462212 MASE ACF1 Training set 0.2158968 0.0106260 pred <- predict(ARIMAfit, n.ahead = 36) pred $pred Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul 2015 2.754168 2.753182 2.826608 2.880192 2.932447 2.912372 2.972538 2016 2.796051 2.795065 2.868491 2.922075 2.974330 2.954255 3.014421 2017 2.837934 2.836948 2.910374 2.963958 3.016213 2.996138 3.056304 Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2015 2.970585 2.847264 2.797259 2.757395 2.825125 2016 3.012468 2.889147 2.839142 2.799278 2.867008 2017 3.054351 2.931030 2.881025 2.841161 2.908891 $se Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 2015 0.01603508 0.01866159 0.02096153 0.02303295 0.02493287 0.02669792 2016 0.03923008 0.04159145 0.04382576 0.04595157 0.04798329 0.04993241 2017 0.06386474 0.06637555 0.06879478 0.07113179 0.07339441 0.07558934 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2015 0.02835330 0.02991723 0.03140337 0.03282229 0.03418236 0.03549035 2016 0.05180825 0.05361850 0.05536960 0.05706700 0.05871534 0.06031866 2017 0.07772231 0.07979828 0.08182160 0.08379608 0.08572510 0.08761165 plot(data,type=”l”,xlim=c(2004,2018),ylim=c(1,1600),xlab = “Year”,ylab = “Tractor Sales”) lines(10^(pred$pred),col=”blue”) lines(10^(pred$pred+2*pred$se),col=”purple”) lines(10^(pred$pred-2*pred$se),col=”purple”)

R forecasting Example

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R forecasting Example