Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Hawaii
- 1. Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Hawai‘i Denise Eby Konan, Ph.D. Professor, Department of Economics Director, Center for Sustainable Coastal Tourism Fellow, UHERO and REIS Renewable Energy andwww.uhero.hawaii.edu/eggs October 8, 2009 Island Society October 8, 2009 1
- 2. Energy in the USA Source: EIA Annual Energy Outlook (2009) October 8, 2009 www.uhero.hawaii.edu/eggs 2
- 3. Renewable Energy in the USA Source: EIA Annual Energy Outlook (2009) October 8, 2009 www.uhero.hawaii.edu/eggs 3
- 4. Energy Risks Source: EIA Annual Energy Outlook (2009) October 8, 2009 www.uhero.hawaii.edu/eggs 4
- 5. Vulnerable energy security: Energy consumption by source (2007) Hawaii USA Average Source: EIA State Energy Data System (2008) October 8, 2009 www.uhero.hawaii.edu/eggs 5
- 6. Figure designed and created by UHERO EGGS October 8, 2009 www.uhero.hawaii.edu/eggs 6
- 7. Hawaii and climate change… October 8, 2009 www.uhero.hawaii.edu/eggs 7
- 8. Climate change threat for Hawaii: Sea-Level Rise Land within 1 ft of high tide Image from Chip Fletcher, Hawaii Mapping Group, SOEST October 8, 2009 www.uhero.hawaii.edu/eggs 8
- 9. Climate change threat to Hawaii: Ocean acidification CO2 going up above the ocean and in the ocean pH going down in the upper ocean - becoming more acidic Observational results from Station Aloha (Dore et al., 2009) October 8, 2009 www.uhero.hawaii.edu/eggs 9
- 10. Climate change threat to Hawaii: Ecosystem collapse A Pteropod after 48 hours of living low pH ocean conditions (e is a control) Pteropods contribute to the diet of diverse carnivorous zooplankton, myctophid and nototheniid fishes, North Pacific salmon, mackerel, herring, cod and baleen whales. Source: Orr et al (Nature, 2005) October 8, 2009 www.uhero.hawaii.edu/eggs 10
- 11. Hawaii addressing climate change: ACT 234 - Hawaii’s Global Warming Solutions Act Second state in the country to enact GHG regulations – June 2007 10 member task force developing plan to meet 1990 GHG levels by 2020 Report GHG work plan to Legislature by end of 2010 Department of Health is in charge On January 1, 2012: Rules and regulatory scheme go into effe ct October 8, 2009 www.uhero.hawaii.edu/eggs 11
- 12. Hawaii’s GHG Sources Chevron Kapolei Refinery (Google Maps) October 8, 2009 www.uhero.hawaii.edu/eggs 12
- 13. Energy & Greenhouse Gas Solutions: Mission To analyze and tailor energy and climate change policy by assessing technology options and the associated environmental and economic impacts. October 8, 2009 www.uhero.hawaii.edu/eggs 13
- 14. EGGS: Core Goals 1. Engage in rigorous analysis and establish a global research reputation. 2. Develop and maintain data and models on Hawai’i energy, economy, and resulting greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. 3. Showcase Hawai’i solutions that demonstrate a sustainable alternative for others. 4. Develop solution-based education and outreach programs on energy and GHG solutions for a variety of levels (legislators, business community, and K-12). October 8, 2009 www.uhero.hawaii.edu/eggs 14
- 15. Hawaii GHG Profile: 1990 and 2005 (report available on our website) Amount of GHG Emission (MMTCO2E) 1990 2005 Energy 23.232 24.161 Stationary Energy Sources 10.163 10.854 Electric Power Sector 6.804 8.362 Residential Energy Sector 0.350 0.330 Commercial Energy Sector 0.762 0.287 Industrial Energy Sector 2.246 1.874 Mobile Energy Sources 13.069 13.307 Air Transportation Sector 7.487 5.991 Ground Transportation Sector 3.666 5.601 Marine Transportation Sector 1.916 1.715 Non-Energy Sources 1.456 2.269 Industrial Processes Sector 0.197 0.844 Agriculture Sector 0.634 0.453 Waste 0.625 0.972 Grand Total 24.687 26.430 October 8, 2009 www.uhero.hawaii.edu/eggs 15
- 16. Hawaii GHG Profile: Biggest changes since 1990 % GHG emissions change contribu3on by sector October 8, 2009 www.uhero.hawaii.edu/eggs 16
- 17. Ground Transportation GHG Emissions: Total, and Per Capita October 8, 2009 www.uhero.hawaii.edu/eggs 17
- 18. Greenhouse Gas Emissions (MT CO2E Per Capita) MTCO2E per Capita 24 1.3 20 1.7 1.8 1.4 3.3 16 Non-Energy Sources 4.4 Marine Transportation Sector Ground Transportation Sector 6.7 12 Air Transportation Sector 4.7 Industrial Energy Sector Commercial Energy Sector 8 2.0 1.5 Residential Energy Sector 0.2 0.7 0.3 Electric Power Sector 0.3 4 6.6 6.1 0 1990 2005 October 8, 2009 www.uhero.hawaii.edu/eggs 18
- 19. GHG Emissions Accounting: An example equation CO2 emissions = Af,h * Fc,h * Fox* (44/12) Af,h : heat content of fuel consumed (GJ converted from therms or million BTU) Fc,h : Carbon content of fuel on a heating value basis (15.3 kg C/GJ) Fox : Oxidation factor to account for fraction of carbon in fuel that remains as soot or ash (44/12) : Ratio of the molecular weight of CO2 to that of carbon Source: WRI GHG Protocol October 8, 2009 www.uhero.hawaii.edu/eggs 19
- 20. Hawaii GHG Profile Conclusions Act 234 emissions have increased by about 23 % from 1990 to 2005 Per dollar output, Hawai‘i is more GHG intensive in 2005 than in 1990 although per capita is down Power and transport account for about 70% of all GHG emissions Ground transportation contributes about 20 percent and is growing rapidly October 8, 2009 www.uhero.hawaii.edu/eggs 20
- 21. EGGS Modeling: New publication October 8, 2009 www.uhero.hawaii.edu/eggs 21
- 22. Rationale: Tourism’s Role in Hawaii’s Economy $11.4 billion, in 2008 $1,700 per person, per trip spending 18% of Gross State Product, current dollars 10% of all civilian jobs Statewide in 2003 6.8 million visitor arrivals 64 million visitor days High stakes for Hawaii economy DBEDT 2008 Hawaii Data Book October 8, 2009 www.uhero.hawaii.edu/eggs 22
- 23. Data and methods: Data sources October 8, 2009 www.uhero.hawaii.edu/eggs 23
- 24. Data and Methods: Economic data - 131 economic sectors October 8, 2009 www.uhero.hawaii.edu/eggs 24
- 25. …. And Energy Data Data and Methods: Detailed Energy Data Other Oil Aviation Residual Coal Products Gasoline Gasoline Diesel Jet Fuel LPG Fuel Oil Industry (MBTU) (MBTU) (MBTU) (MBTU) (MBTU) (MBTU) (MBTU) (MBTU) Sugarcane 0 0 0 12,389 43,038 0 28 0 Vegetables 0 0 0 3,644 12,661 0 8 0 Macadamia nuts 0 0 0 17,723 61,569 0 39 0 Pineapples 0 0 0 26,375 91,625 0 59 0 Other fruits 0 0 0 7,768 26,987 0 17 0 Coffee 0 0 0 20,128 69,924 0 45 0 Greenhouse and nursery products 0 0 0 6,443 22,383 0 14 0 Dairy cattle and milk production 0 0 0 2,930 10,180 0 7 0 Poultry and eggs 0 0 0 1,798 6,245 0 4 0 Cattle Ranching 0 0 0 1,140 3,959 0 3 0 Hog and pig farming 0 0 0 431 1,498 0 1 0 Misc. livestock 0 0 0 508 1,764 0 1 0 Aquaculture 0 0 0 2,447 8,500 0 5 0 Other agricultural products 0 0 0 4,834 16,792 0 11 0 Commercial fishing 0 0 0 5,296 1,246,826 0 0 0 Support activities for agriculture 0 0 0 0 0 0 426 0 Landscape services 0 0 0 6,575 2,565 0 0 0 Mining 0 0 0 9,943 54,415 0 0 0 Single family housing construction 0 916,811 0 44,620 227,727 0 9,649 4,207 Multiple family housing construction 0 513,771 0 27,071 138,162 0 0 2,553 Commercial building construction 0 2,592,832 0 129,681 661,851 0 18,154 12,228 Hotel construction 0 260,656 0 12,732 64,980 0 2,623 1,201 Road construction 0 2,129,614 0 110,110 561,968 0 5,497 10,383 Other construction 0 468,631 0 24,693 126,023 0 0 2,328 Maintenance & repair construction 0 1,179,340 0 62,140 317,144 0 0 5,859 Fruit and vegetable product mfg 0 118,336 0 11,799 4,603 0 9,385 0 Sugar mfg 0 2,705,837 0 4,252 95,478 0 0 984,860 October 8, 2009 www.uhero.hawaii.edu/eggs 25
- 26. Methods: Input-Output Tables October 8, 2009 www.uhero.hawaii.edu/eggs 26
- 27. Economic output and expenditures ($ million) Household Visitor's Industry Output expenditures expenditures Accommodations 12,496.2 5,424.1 3,892.2 Restaurants 2,274.7 1,036.5 1,126.2 Trade 6,311.9 2,979.9 1,464.8 Entertainment 844.2 234.7 569.4 Golf 229.8 108.4 141.3 Air Transportation 2,044.1 337.5 1,555.6 Transportation 1,464.8 408.9 545.2 Agriculture 823.5 131.5 18.4 Construction 3,524.3 - - Manufacturing 3,416.4 685.8 101.4 Services 15,181.0 8,018.4 573.4 Utilities 1,691.0 595.3 - Government 8,565.8 264.9 45.6 Total 58,867.6 20,225.9 10,033.5 October 8, 2009 www.uhero.hawaii.edu/eggs 27
- 28. Industry output in Hawaii Output Compensation of Industry ($ million) Output employees Accommodations 12,496.2 21.2% 7.8% Restaurants 2,274.7 3.9% 3.7% Trade 6,311.9 10.7% 11.1% Entertainment 844.2 1.4% 1.4% Golf 229.8 0.4% 0.4% Air Transportation 2,044.1 3.5% 2.4% Transportation 1,464.8 2.5% 1.7% Agriculture 823.5 1.4% 1.3% Construction 3,524.3 6.0% 5.8% Manufacturing 3,416.4 5.8% 2.4% Services 15,181.0 25.8% 27.2% Utilities 1,691.0 2.9% 1.6% Government 8,565.8 14.6% 33.2% Total 58,867.6 100.0% 100.0% October 8, 2009 www.uhero.hawaii.edu/eggs 28
- 29. Methods: Calculating GHGs from direct and indirect demand Total demand vector (X) is function of intermediate and final demand (Y), A is matrix of technical coefficients X = ( I - A)-1 Y Fuel requirements matrix (F X) defined as gallons by fuel type associated with final demand Y F X = F ( I - A)-1 Y Energy intensity matrix total fuel required to produce one dollars worth of final demand in each sector (Yi = 1) Emissions intensity matrix total GHG emissions associated with one dollars worth of final demand October 8, 2009 www.uhero.hawaii.edu/eggs 29
- 30. The top ten economic sectors’ direct GHG emission - metric tons CO2E Industry Carbon Dioxide Methane Nitrous Oxide Electricity 6,806,708.60 4,351.14 3,519.44 Air transportation 3,636,808.12 2,561.97 287.12 Utility gas 242,704.95 101.66 52,356.48 Construction 229,037.92 261.28 1,142.56 Hotels 184,796.88 175.03 11,647.60 Other services 152,312.61 105.57 204.24 Petroleum manuf. 147,339.04 256.68 2.96 Restaurants 135,693.90 124.66 9,620.00 Health services 134,887.81 145.59 2,148.96 Finance business 123,613.35 138.69 139.12 October 8, 2009 www.uhero.hawaii.edu/eggs 30
- 31. Ranking Carbon Intensity: metric tons CO2E / $ million Electricity 7,179.7 Chemical manufacturing 232.9 Utility gas 2,680.2 Parking lots 226.7 Air transportation 1,771.8 Automobile rental 225.8 Commercial fishing 1,484.3 Waste management 225.3 Petroleum manufacturing 765.2 Construction and mining 224.6 Sightseeing transport 443.2 Crops 214.3 Transit 405.3 Other manufacturing 209.4 Ground transportation 400.6 Animal 202.0 Recreation 378.3 Clothing manufacturing 182.9 Food processing 378.1 Health services 178.6 Golf courses 363.0 Travel reservations 165.4 Laundry 345.0 Education private 122.5 Hotels 337.0 Retail trade 106.6 Other services 326.4 Wholesale trade 93.5 Trucking 291.4 Information 85.3 Water sewer 286.9 Real estate rental 81.9 Water transportation 285.8 Landscaping services 75.0 Restaurants 273.8 Finance business 73.8 Amusement 271.5 Performing arts 68.1 Museums historical 254.4 Other government 29.9 October 8, 2009 www.uhero.hawaii.edu/eggs 31
- 32. Summary table: Resident and visitor energy and GHG emissions Energy, GHG emissions trillion BTU MMTCO2e Total 323.3 23.4 Resident 126.4 9.3 Visitor 72.9 5.2 Visitor less air 33.5 2.4 Per annum MBTU GHG metric tons Resident 104 7.7 Visitor 464 32.9 Visitor less air 213 15.4 Per capita 267 19.3 Visitor factor 4.4 4.3 Visitor factor less air 2.0 2.0 October 8, 2009 www.uhero.hawaii.edu/eggs 32
- 33. Summary GHG Emissions of Tourism 22% of Hawaii’s total emissions 5.2 million metric tons of CO2 equiv Per Capita Tourist: 33 metric tons Resident: 7.7 metric tons October 8, 2009 www.uhero.hawaii.edu/eggs 33
- 34. Future research Endogenous emissions built into a dynamic computable general equilibrium model of Hawaii’s economy Waikiki district benchmarking and analysis Model carbon tax, cap and trade, command and control policy options for the State Assess economic and environmental impacts of alternative scenarios October 8, 2009 www.uhero.hawaii.edu/eggs 34
- 35. Carbon savings per 1% gasoline conservation October 8, 2009 www.uhero.hawaii.edu/eggs 35
- 36. Gives outrageous insight to economic and environment solu9on Carbon savings per 1% electricity conservation October 8, 2009 www.uhero.hawaii.edu/eggs 36
- 37. Get into the Solution October 8, 2009 www.uhero.hawaii.edu/eggs 37
- 38. Hawaii Clean Energy Initiative h>p://www.hawaiicleanenergyini3a3ve.org/ October 8, 2009 www.uhero.hawaii.edu/eggs 38
- 39. Hawaii Energy Options: Just a few! Oceanlinx Oceanlinx Hawaii Clean Energy Initiative Wind Wave Energy HECO Honolulu Sea Water Air Conditioning Solar Sea Water Air Conditioning (SWAC) October 8, 2009 www.uhero.hawaii.edu/eggs 39
- 40. Thank you to our sponsors and partners! Michael Saalfeld Pierre and Pamela Omidyar Fund at the Hawaii Community Foundation Hawaii State Department of Health Hawaii Natural Energy Institute Renewable Energy and Island Sustainability International Center for Climate and Society UHM Outreach College October 8, 2009 www.uhero.hawaii.edu/eggs 40