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EARTHQUAKE RISK
• QUAKE HAZARDS
•INVENTORY
•VULNERABILITY
•LOCATION

ACCEPTABLE RISK
RISK
UNACCEPTABLE RISK

QUAKE DISASTER
RESILIENCE
DATA BASES
AND INFORMATION

COMMUNITIES

POLICY OPTIONS
HAZARDS:
GROUND SHAKING
GROUND FAILURE
SURFACE FAULTING
TECTONIC DEFORMATION
TSUNAMI RUN UP
AFTERSHOCKS

•PREPAREDNESS
•PROTECTION
•FORECASTS/SCENARIOS
•EMERGENCY RESPONSE
•RECOVERY and
RECONSTRUCTION
REMEMBERING SOME OF
THE NOTABLE DAMAGING
EARTHQUAKES AND
TSUNAMIS
2014--2020 IS A GOOD TIME
FOR A GLOBAL SURGE IN
EDUCATIONAL, TECHNICAL,
HEALTH CARE, AND POLITICAL
CAPACITY BUILDING
IN ALL FIVE PILLARS OF
COMMUNITY

DISASTER RESILIENCE
ALL PAST DISASTERS
DEMONSTRATE THE
URGENCY OF BECOMING
DISASTER RESILIENT
PREMISE: A DISASTER ON THE
SAME SCALE SHOULD NEVER
HAPPEN TWICE IN A
COMMUNITY
EARTHQUAKE RISK
• QUAKE HAZARDS
•INVENTORY
•VULNERABILITY
•LOCATION

ACCEPTABLE RISK
RISK
UNACCEPTABLE RISK

QUAKE DISASTER
RESILIENCE
DATA BASES
AND INFORMATION

COMMUNITIES

POLICY OPTIONS
HAZARDS:
GROUND SHAKING
GROUND FAILURE
SURFACE FAULTING
TECTONIC DEFORMATION
TSUNAMI RUN UP
AFTERSHOCKS

•PREPAREDNESS
•PROTECTION
•FORECASTS/SCENARIOS
•EMERGENCY RESPONSE
•RECOVERY and
RECONSTRUCTION
CAUSES
OF
DAMAGE
INADEQUATE RESISTANCE TO
HORIZONTAL GROUND SHAKING
SOIL AMPLIFICATION
PERMANENT DISPLACEMENT
(SURFACE FAULTING & GROUND
FAILURE)

EARTHQUAKES

IRREGULARITIES IN ELEVATION
AND PLAN

“DISASTER
LABORATORIES”

FIRE FOLLOWING RUPTURE OF
UTILITIES
LACK OF DETAILING AND
CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS
INATTENTION TO
NONSTRUCTURAL ELEMENTS
VAN, TURKEY: OCTOBER,
2011
L'AQUILA, ITALY: APRIL 2009
SICHUAN PROVINCE, CHINA;
MAY 2008
SUMATRA, INDONESIA:
SEPTEMBER 2007
BAN, IRAN: DECEMBER 2003
ARMENIA: DECEMBER 1988
MINDANAO, THE
PHILIPPINES: AUG. 1976
CHILE: MAY 1960
TSUNAMI RISK
•TSUNAMI HAZARDS
•PEOPLE & BLDGS.
•VULNERABILITY
•LOCATION

ACCEPTABLE RISK
RISK
UNACCEPTABLE RISK

GOAL: TSUNAMI
DISASTER RESILIENCE
DATA BASES
AND INFORMATION

COMMUNITIES

POLICY OPTIONS
HAZARDS:
GROUND SHAKING
GROUND FAILURE
SURFACE FAULTING
TECTONIC DEFORMATION
TSUNAMI RUN UP
AFTERSHOCKS

• PREPAREDNESS
•PROTECTION
•EARLY WARNING
•EMERGENCY RESPONSE
•RECOVERY and
RECONSTRUCTION
CAUSES
OF
DAMAGE
HIGH VELOCITY IMPACT OF
INCOMING WAVES
INLAND DISTANCE OF WAVE
RUNUP
VERTICAL HEIGHT OF WAVE
RUNUP

TSUNAMIS
“DISASTER
LABORATORIES”

INADEQUATE RESISTANCE OF
BUILDINGS
FLOODING
INADEQUATE HORIZONTAL
AND VERTICAL EVACUATION
PROXIMITY TO SOURCE OF
TSUNAMI
JAPAN: MARCH 11, 2011
INDONESIA: OCTOBER 2010
CHILE: FEBRUARY 2010
AMERICAN SAMOA:
SEPTEMBER 2009
SOLOMON ISLANDS: APRIL
2007
JAVA ISLANDS: APRIL 2006
INDONESIA: DECEMBER 2004
MINDANAO, THE
PHILIPPINES: AUG. 1976
ALASKA (USA): MARCH 1964
EXTRAPOLATION TO 2013
• A tsunami generated by a massive
earthquake off the coast of Alaska
would leave the northern Orange
County coast and Long Beach
underwater.
• Source: U.S. Geological Survey
report, Wednesday (Sept. 4, 2013).
SCHEMATIC OF THE HYPOTHETICAL
TSUNAMI WAVE (USGS)

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