Richard Watson at the Asia Pacific Summit 2011
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The document discusses five key trends shaping the Asia-Pacific region: demographic changes, a power shift eastwards, global connectivity, sustainability, and GRIN technologies. Each trend carries specific implications for resource management, economic competition, and consumer behavior, highlighting challenges such as skilled labor shortages, resource procurement, and a demand for transparency and adaptability. These trends forecast significant changes in how businesses operate and interact with consumers in an increasingly complex landscape.
![“ What a business needs the most for its decisions, especially strategic ones, is data about what goes on outside of it” - Peter Drucker [email_address]](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/richardwatsonfinal-111013062338-phpapp01/85/Richard-Watson-at-the-Asia-Pacific-Summit-2011-2-320.jpg)
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![Five Key Trends Demographic Change (Shortage of births & deaths) Power Shift Eastwards (BRICs & Beyond) Global Connectivity (Digital switchover) Sustainability (New climate of opinion) GRIN Technologies (Rise of the machines) (Anxiety - caused by all of the above) [email_address]](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/richardwatsonfinal-111013062338-phpapp01/85/Richard-Watson-at-the-Asia-Pacific-Summit-2011-4-320.jpg)
![Demographic Change Growth of global population (consumption) Increase in longevity Decline in fertility Changing household composition (e.g. more pets) Changing cultural norms (e.g. always on) Generation change (e.g. birth of the screenager) [email_address] Implications… Pressure on resources, climate & eco-systems (and healthcare/pensions) Skilled labour shortages and wage rises in most markets (unless economy slumps) Blurring of work/home behaviour (rise of the digital nomad & synchronous screen use) Generational shifts in how people talk to one another (decline of voice communication) Ageing + speed of change/complexity is driving an interest in simplicity & control Not everywhere](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/richardwatsonfinal-111013062338-phpapp01/85/Richard-Watson-at-the-Asia-Pacific-Summit-2011-5-320.jpg)
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![[email_address]](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/richardwatsonfinal-111013062338-phpapp01/85/Richard-Watson-at-the-Asia-Pacific-Summit-2011-7-320.jpg)
![Power Shift Eastwards Expansion of global middle class (demand) Scramble for oil, food, water, land, rare earths (prices) Potential bifurcation between West & East More equality between nations but less within (activism) Political impact of mobiles and social networks Rise of nationalism and protectionism [email_address] Implications… Procurement of key resources is becoming a strategic issue Increased outsourcing (back-office) & collaboration opportunities New low-cost & niche competition (fewer but larger competitors overall) New BRIC competition without legacy or CSR issues (+ rise of BRIC M&A) Western political pressure for back-sourcing (‘industrial provenance’)](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/richardwatsonfinal-111013062338-phpapp01/85/Richard-Watson-at-the-Asia-Pacific-Summit-2011-8-320.jpg)
![[email_address]](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/richardwatsonfinal-111013062338-phpapp01/85/Richard-Watson-at-the-Asia-Pacific-Summit-2011-9-320.jpg)
![Major economies’ share of global GDP, 0-2005 [email_address]](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/richardwatsonfinal-111013062338-phpapp01/85/Richard-Watson-at-the-Asia-Pacific-Summit-2011-10-320.jpg)
![Global Connectivity Acceleration of almost everything Power draining away from institutions to individuals Rising transparency & declining privacy (reputation) Open innovation, crowd-sourcing & prediction markets Peak attention, data-security, volatility & systemic risk New cyber-threats (e.g. medical ID theft) [email_address] Implications… Demand for 24/7 mobile access to all products & services (+ life-streaming of ‘me’) Mass personalisation of products & services (especially location-based services) Data flood + time famine + complexity creating demand for simplicity, editing & control Touch interfaces, voice control, context awareness, telepresence & data-visualisation Growth of new business models and payment systems (e.g. micro-payments & NFC)](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/richardwatsonfinal-111013062338-phpapp01/85/Richard-Watson-at-the-Asia-Pacific-Summit-2011-11-320.jpg)
![[email_address]](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/richardwatsonfinal-111013062338-phpapp01/85/Richard-Watson-at-the-Asia-Pacific-Summit-2011-12-320.jpg)
![[email_address]](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/richardwatsonfinal-111013062338-phpapp01/85/Richard-Watson-at-the-Asia-Pacific-Summit-2011-13-320.jpg)
![Sustainability Adaptation not extinction (depends where you live!) Resource shortages more immediate threat for most Tightening regulation & rising prices (again) Boom in green products & services (anomalies) Smart utilities, dashboards and sensors Rise of the (confused) green consumer [email_address] Implications… Growth in CSR (e.g. pressure for total transparency and ‘life story labeling’) Potential shifts in disease patterns caused by climate change Growth in green computing and the ‘green cloud’ More threats to infrastructure caused by wild weather & “100-year events” Mass-migration caused by weather events could trigger widespread unrest](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/richardwatsonfinal-111013062338-phpapp01/85/Richard-Watson-at-the-Asia-Pacific-Summit-2011-14-320.jpg)
![[email_address]](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/richardwatsonfinal-111013062338-phpapp01/85/Richard-Watson-at-the-Asia-Pacific-Summit-2011-15-320.jpg)
![GRIN Technologies G enetic prophesy & screening R obots in education, caring & security roles I nternet versions 3 & 4 (mobile, smart & sensory) N ano-materials with entirely novel properties Real time and historical data driving predictive models More machine intelligence (less common sense) [email_address] Implications… Further growth of automation,virtualisation, augmented reality and artificial intelligence Emerge of the internet of things (growth in wearable computers & implanted devices) Digitalisation + the internet removing barriers of entry for many markets 3D-printing and nano-manufacturing could turn the world upside down Convergence of all of the above…](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/richardwatsonfinal-111013062338-phpapp01/85/Richard-Watson-at-the-Asia-Pacific-Summit-2011-16-320.jpg)
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![But… [email_address]](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/richardwatsonfinal-111013062338-phpapp01/85/Richard-Watson-at-the-Asia-Pacific-Summit-2011-19-320.jpg)
![[email_address] A case of poor forecasting, from Beck, 1983. The Perils of Prediction](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/richardwatsonfinal-111013062338-phpapp01/85/Richard-Watson-at-the-Asia-Pacific-Summit-2011-20-320.jpg)
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![“ We shall never escape the ultimate dilemma that all our knowledge is about the past and all our decisions are about the future” -Ian Wilson, American Association for the Advancement of Science [email_address]](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/richardwatsonfinal-111013062338-phpapp01/85/Richard-Watson-at-the-Asia-Pacific-Summit-2011-23-320.jpg)
![Questions? [email_address]](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/richardwatsonfinal-111013062338-phpapp01/85/Richard-Watson-at-the-Asia-Pacific-Summit-2011-24-320.jpg)
Richard Watson at the Asia Pacific Summit 2011
- 1. TREN DS AND DEVELOPMENTS SHAPING ASIA PACIFIC Richard Watson
- 2. “ What a business needs the most for its decisions, especially strategic ones, is data about what goes on outside of it” - Peter Drucker [email_address]
- 4. Five Key Trends Demographic Change (Shortage of births & deaths) Power Shift Eastwards (BRICs & Beyond) Global Connectivity (Digital switchover) Sustainability (New climate of opinion) GRIN Technologies (Rise of the machines) (Anxiety - caused by all of the above) [email_address]
- 5. Demographic Change Growth of global population (consumption) Increase in longevity Decline in fertility Changing household composition (e.g. more pets) Changing cultural norms (e.g. always on) Generation change (e.g. birth of the screenager) [email_address] Implications… Pressure on resources, climate & eco-systems (and healthcare/pensions) Skilled labour shortages and wage rises in most markets (unless economy slumps) Blurring of work/home behaviour (rise of the digital nomad & synchronous screen use) Generational shifts in how people talk to one another (decline of voice communication) Ageing + speed of change/complexity is driving an interest in simplicity & control Not everywhere
- 8. Power Shift Eastwards Expansion of global middle class (demand) Scramble for oil, food, water, land, rare earths (prices) Potential bifurcation between West & East More equality between nations but less within (activism) Political impact of mobiles and social networks Rise of nationalism and protectionism [email_address] Implications… Procurement of key resources is becoming a strategic issue Increased outsourcing (back-office) & collaboration opportunities New low-cost & niche competition (fewer but larger competitors overall) New BRIC competition without legacy or CSR issues (+ rise of BRIC M&A) Western political pressure for back-sourcing (‘industrial provenance’)
- 10. Major economies’ share of global GDP, 0-2005 [email_address]
- 11. Global Connectivity Acceleration of almost everything Power draining away from institutions to individuals Rising transparency & declining privacy (reputation) Open innovation, crowd-sourcing & prediction markets Peak attention, data-security, volatility & systemic risk New cyber-threats (e.g. medical ID theft) [email_address] Implications… Demand for 24/7 mobile access to all products & services (+ life-streaming of ‘me’) Mass personalisation of products & services (especially location-based services) Data flood + time famine + complexity creating demand for simplicity, editing & control Touch interfaces, voice control, context awareness, telepresence & data-visualisation Growth of new business models and payment systems (e.g. micro-payments & NFC)
- 12. [email_address]
- 13. [email_address]
- 14. Sustainability Adaptation not extinction (depends where you live!) Resource shortages more immediate threat for most Tightening regulation & rising prices (again) Boom in green products & services (anomalies) Smart utilities, dashboards and sensors Rise of the (confused) green consumer [email_address] Implications… Growth in CSR (e.g. pressure for total transparency and ‘life story labeling’) Potential shifts in disease patterns caused by climate change Growth in green computing and the ‘green cloud’ More threats to infrastructure caused by wild weather & “100-year events” Mass-migration caused by weather events could trigger widespread unrest
- 15. [email_address]
- 16. GRIN Technologies G enetic prophesy & screening R obots in education, caring & security roles I nternet versions 3 & 4 (mobile, smart & sensory) N ano-materials with entirely novel properties Real time and historical data driving predictive models More machine intelligence (less common sense) [email_address] Implications… Further growth of automation,virtualisation, augmented reality and artificial intelligence Emerge of the internet of things (growth in wearable computers & implanted devices) Digitalisation + the internet removing barriers of entry for many markets 3D-printing and nano-manufacturing could turn the world upside down Convergence of all of the above…
- 17. [email_address]
- 18. [email_address]
- 20. [email_address] A case of poor forecasting, from Beck, 1983. The Perils of Prediction
- 21. [email_address]
- 22. [email_address]
- 23. “ We shall never escape the ultimate dilemma that all our knowledge is about the past and all our decisions are about the future” -Ian Wilson, American Association for the Advancement of Science [email_address]
Editor's Notes
- #11: Geopolitical risks (shocks) - economy much more open to distant shocks