Science in retreat: The consequences for the Arctic and our planet
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1 June 2025… The Weather and Climate Livestream (Invited – Keynote): Science in retreat: The consequences for the Arctic and our planet. Remote Presentation.
![[International
Arctic
Research
Center
[IARC;
University
of
Alaska,
Fairbanks]
Start a conversation!
THIS IS AN
OPPORTUNITY
TO SHARE STORIES.](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/zlabeweatherclimatelivestream06-01-2025-250601185636-635adcf5/85/Science-in-retreat-The-consequences-for-the-Arctic-and-our-planet-18-320.jpg)
![[International
Arctic
Research
Center
[IARC;
University
of
Alaska,
Fairbanks]
Start a conversation!](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/zlabeweatherclimatelivestream06-01-2025-250601185636-635adcf5/85/Science-in-retreat-The-consequences-for-the-Arctic-and-our-planet-19-320.jpg)
![[Newson, 1973;
Nature]
“…great warming of the
lower layers of the
troposphere over the
Arctic basin... In fact,
there is a lowering of
mid-latitude continental
temperatures near the
surface”](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/zlabeweatherclimatelivestream06-01-2025-250601185636-635adcf5/85/Science-in-retreat-The-consequences-for-the-Arctic-and-our-planet-50-320.jpg)
![JET STREAM
[Visualization
by
NASA/JPL
Hyperwall]](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/zlabeweatherclimatelivestream06-01-2025-250601185636-635adcf5/85/Science-in-retreat-The-consequences-for-the-Arctic-and-our-planet-52-320.jpg)
![Global climate change
Northern Hemisphere
mid-latitude weather
Arctic
Amplification
Changes in:
+ Storm tracks
+ Jet stream
+ Planetary waves
Natural Variability
+ Internal modes
+ Solar cycle
+ Volcanoes
Northern Hemisphere cryosphere changes
+ Summer and early fall Arctic sea-ice loss
+ Fall Eurasian snow cover increases
+ Late fall and winter Arctic sea-ice loss
[adapted/changed from
Cohen et al., 2014;
Nature Geosciences]
Polar Vortex](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/zlabeweatherclimatelivestream06-01-2025-250601185636-635adcf5/85/Science-in-retreat-The-consequences-for-the-Arctic-and-our-planet-56-320.jpg)
![[Goosse
et
al.
2018]](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/zlabeweatherclimatelivestream06-01-2025-250601185636-635adcf5/85/Science-in-retreat-The-consequences-for-the-Arctic-and-our-planet-74-320.jpg)
![ARCTIC
NORTHERN
HEMISPHERE
[Modified from SWIPA, 2017]
[0°C]
[14°C]
[7°C]
High Emissions
Low Emissions
Climate Model Projections Climate Model Projections](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/zlabeweatherclimatelivestream06-01-2025-250601185636-635adcf5/85/Science-in-retreat-The-consequences-for-the-Arctic-and-our-planet-81-320.jpg)
Science in retreat: The consequences for the Arctic and our planet
- 1. SCIENCE IN RETREAT: The consequences for the Arctic and our planet Zachary Labe Climate Scientist at Climate Central 1 June 2025 The Weather & Climate Livestream @zacklabe.com
- 5. Polar Amplification: acceleration of warming in high latitudes relative to the rest of the globe
- 6. The signal (climate change) The noise (weather) …To tell data-driven climate stories…
- 7. I would not be a scientist today without the support of federally funded research. Mount Washington, New Hampshire – “Home of the world's worst weather” Me, with my new handheld anemometer measuring 50+ mph wind gusts – late 2000s My weather journals – 2005
- 13. DATA VISUALIZATION IS STORY-TELLING. Arctic temperature anomalies from 1950 to 2024
- 14. THE ARCTIC IS CHANGING IN REAL-TIME. Daily Arctic temperature in 2018 (red) compared to every year since 1958 in the month of February. Average is shown by the white line.
- 15. THIS IS AN OPPORTUNITY TO COMMUNICATE.
- 17. 2016 Average
- 18. [International Arctic Research Center [IARC; University of Alaska, Fairbanks] Start a conversation! THIS IS AN OPPORTUNITY TO SHARE STORIES.
- 19. [International Arctic Research Center [IARC; University of Alaska, Fairbanks] Start a conversation!
- 21. The Arctic.
- 22. The Arctic.
- 26. Observing ice.
- 31. “The Bear spent its most illustrious years in the treacherous waters of the Arctic in the U.S. Revenue Cutter Service. Photo courtesy of the Alaska and Polar Regions Collections, Elmer E. Rasmuson Library, University of Alaska Fairbanks.” https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/climate-change-ice-shiplogs/
- 34. • Describes the current state of different components of the Arctic system relative to historical records • Issued annually since 2006 • 97 scientists from 11 countries • Aimed for a broad audience • Observations inform model development and needs
- 38. Looking ahead.
- 39. Observed Arctic temperatures from 1950 to 2021 Climate Model – GFDL SPEAR (30 ensemble members); Delworth et al. 2020
- 40. Simulated historical Arctic temperatures from 1930 to 2014 using a climate model Climate Model – GFDL SPEAR (30 ensemble members); Delworth et al. 2020
- 41. Simulated Arctic temperatures from 1930 to 2100 using a climate model WITHOUT human- caused climate change Climate Model – GFDL SPEAR (30 ensemble members); Delworth et al. 2020
- 42. What influences of climate change do you see on temperatures in the Arctic? Climate Model – GFDL SPEAR (30 ensemble members); Delworth et al. 2020
- 43. Projected future Arctic temperatures from 2015 to 2100 using a climate model with increases in fossil fuel development Climate Model – GFDL SPEAR (30 ensemble members); Delworth et al. 2020
- 44. Projected future Arctic temperatures from 2015 to 2100 using a climate model with moderate progress in mitigation and other sustainability goals Climate Model – GFDL SPEAR (30 ensemble members); Delworth et al. 2020
- 45. Projected future Arctic temperatures from 2015 to 2100 using a climate model with a rapid reduction in current emissions globally Climate Model – GFDL SPEAR (30 ensemble members); Delworth et al. 2020
- 49. Polar amplification in early climate models
- 50. [Newson, 1973; Nature] “…great warming of the lower layers of the troposphere over the Arctic basin... In fact, there is a lowering of mid-latitude continental temperatures near the surface”
- 51. Manabe, S., & Stouffer, R. J. (1980). Sensitivity of a global climate model to an increase of CO2 concentration in the atmosphere. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 85(C10), 5529-5554.
- 53. A CONNECTION? ARCTIC SEA ICE MID-LATITUDE WEATHER
- 54. ARCTIC SEA ICE MID-LATITUDE WEATHER Historical Future Thanks to graduate support from the National Science Foundation (NSF)! A CONNECTION?
- 55. ARCTIC SEA ICE MID-LATITUDE WEATHER Historical Future Thanks to graduate support from the NSF! A CONNECTION?
- 56. Global climate change Northern Hemisphere mid-latitude weather Arctic Amplification Changes in: + Storm tracks + Jet stream + Planetary waves Natural Variability + Internal modes + Solar cycle + Volcanoes Northern Hemisphere cryosphere changes + Summer and early fall Arctic sea-ice loss + Fall Eurasian snow cover increases + Late fall and winter Arctic sea-ice loss [adapted/changed from Cohen et al., 2014; Nature Geosciences] Polar Vortex
- 58. Modeling vs. Field Work
- 59. R/V Lance – Greenland Sea – May 2017
- 60. “Cryo-copter”
- 62. stuck in the sea ice…
- 64. sea ice brine channels
- 65. sea ice brine channels
- 66. snow pits
- 67. snow pits
- 68. Algae
- 69. isbjørn
- 71. polarized sea ice core
- 75. We need scientists. We need educators. We need innovators. We need communicators.
- 76. NSF’s 10 big ideas Navigating the New Arctic (NNA) https://nna-co.org/index.php/about
- 77. WHY? Transparency Trust Accessibility Open Science Innovation Building relationships to solve big challenges Bringing your audience along on your scientific journey A renewed focus on improving inclusivity Climate change information needs this Slow to gain, but quick to lose
- 78. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2025/05/22/upshot/nsf-grants-trump-cuts.html "This year, the agency has fired workers at the Office of Polar Programs, which coordinates research in the Arctic and the Antarctic. The polar office has awarded 88% less money in grants this year." NOW WHAT?
- 81. ARCTIC NORTHERN HEMISPHERE [Modified from SWIPA, 2017] [0°C] [14°C] [7°C] High Emissions Low Emissions Climate Model Projections Climate Model Projections
- 82. Crystal Polar Cruise, Aug. 2016
- 83. Crystal Polar Cruise, Aug. 2016 We need scientists. We need educators. We need innovators. We need communicators.
- 85. Postdoc Research NOAA MAPP, DOD DARPA USGS Undergrad Research Federal Scientist NOAA OAR/CPO Graduate Research NSF NRT, NSF GEO, DOE My career would not have been possible without amazing mentors, colleagues, and federal research support.
- 86. My science communication would not be possible without open federal data.
- 87. TAKEAWAYS & THANK YOU! Climate change impacts have already emerged in the Arctic. Improvements to observations and models will reduce uncertainty More resources are needed for polar science to improve prediction, projection, and understanding of Arctic system change Zachary Labe @zacklabe.com https://zacklabe.com/