Sikhalazo Dube — South African Food Security and Climate Change

Country Authors:
Sikhalazo Dube (Agriculture Research Council‐API)
&
Robert J Scholes (Council for Scientific and Industrial Research‐NRE)

Modeling team:
Gerald C. Nelson, Daniel Mason‐D’Croz, and Amanda Palazzo,
International Food Policy Research Institute

6‐8 November 2011

International Conference on Climate Change and Food Security –
Beijing, CHINA

Introduction
Food security for South Africa’s inhabitants is enshrined in
the constitution (section 27 of constitution …“the state
must by legislation and other measures, within its available
resources, avail to progressive realization of the right to
sufficient food’’….)

large portion of South Africa’s population under‐ or mal‐
nourished both in urban (a consequence of rural urban
migration and depressed job markets) and rural areas

Population Trends: Total Population, Rural Population,
and Percent Urban, 1960‐2008

Introduction
Food insecurity is further increased by the
negative impacts of HIV‐AIDS on the ability of the
active population to produce food

The projected decline in precipitation and increase in
temperature (>1°C) will bring about stress in the food
production sector

Role of Agriculture in the South African Economy

Per capita GDP (constant 2000 US$) and share of GDP from agriculture

GCM Projected Climate Changes

Changes in annual maximum temperature between
2000 and 2050 (°C)

Changes in mean annual precipitation between 2000 and 2050 (mm per year).

Scenarios to Adaptation
(Biophysical)

Consumption of leading food commodities,
average of 2003-2006 (Source: FAOSTAT (FAO, 2010)
Rank Crop % of total Food consumption
(000 mt)
1 Maize 21.80% 4,952
2 Wheat 11.50% 2,615
3 Beer 11.00% 2,508
4 Sugar (Raw Equivalent) 6.60% 1,510

5 Potatoes 5.80% 1,318
6 Vegetables, Other 5.50% 1,258
7 Poultry Meat 4.70% 1,074
8 Rice (Milled Equivalent) 3.30% 747

9 Beverages, Fermented 3.30% 747
Total 100.00% 22,748

Yield change under climate change scenario for rainfed
maize

MIROC3.2
medium resolution
ECHAM5 GCM GCM

Yield change under climate change scenario for irrigated
maize

Yield change under climate change scenario for wheat

(Income and demographics)

GDP Per Capita Scenarios

Source: Based on IMPACT results of July 2011, computed from World
Bank and United Nations population estimates (2008 revision)

(Crop specific vulnerabilities)

Scenario outcomes for maize

Yield Price

Net Export

Scenario outcomes for wheat
Price
Yield

Net Export

Scenario outcomes for sugarcane
Price
Yield

Net Export

Human Vulnerability Scenarios Outcomes

Nutrition

Average daily kilocalories availability under Number of malnourished children under 5 years
multiple income and climate scenarios of age under multiple income and climate
(kilocalories per person per day) scenarios

Agriculture and Greenhouse Gas Mitigation

GHG Emissions (CO2, CH4, N2O, PFCs,
HFCs, SF6) in South Africa by Sector

Summary
There is a strong warming throughout South Africa t0 2050.

Net drying over the country as a whole, but spatial variation between the south
western regions and the north eastern regions, which have different
implications for different crops.

Per‐hectare yields of the staple carbohydrate crop, maize, are predicted to rise
moderately and linearly until 2050, despite the warming and national drying.

Predictions suggests that the climate within the main maize‐growing areas
remains tolerable for maize, but may also conceal unjustified assumptions
regarding the availability of irrigation water.

Projected increase the net imports of maize five‐fold, and the price of maize
two‐fold is a serious food security concern.

Summary
Projections of wheat yield per hectare increases are unlikely, given the
geographical distribution of wheat in South Africa, largely in the south west

The net import of wheat increases and the price of wheat is projected to
increase 2.5 times; a concern particularly for the urban poor.

Calorie production per capacity remains at close to the adequate baseline of
3000 kilocalories/day for the base socioeconomic scenario ; this would lead to
child malnutrition outcomes much larger than those projected by the model.

Summary
Crops used for animal feed – maize, sorghum and soybean – all show trends
that would make feedlot animal production substantially more expensive.

Large increases in sugar cane production are projected, based on both yield
and area planted increases that we consider unlikely considering limits on the
suitable land, water and markets.

The analysis indicates substantive reasons for concern regarding agricultural
and food security futures in South Africa. Autonomous adaptation, using
market responses only, are unlikely to be able to adjust to the local food
deficits. Global mitigation steps and local adaptation interventions are called
for.

Sikhalazo Dube — South African Food Security and Climate Change

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