Agriculture, Food Systems & Poverty
Reduction in sub-Sahara Africa:
Urban Diet Transitions & Sustainable Food Systems
Ruerd Ruben
LEI - Wageningen UR
Key Messages
1. Delayed global transformation hinders market development
 food expenditures & import dependency
2. Rapid demographic growth & urbanization
 Dietary transition & Double burden of maltnutrition
3. Supermarket expansion & procurement regimes
 Outsourcing from agro-enterpreneurs
4. How to overcome agricultural stagnation?
 Focus on risks, governance & labour productivity
Africa in the World
Indicator Share
Population (2015) 18%
Population (2050) 25%
Production (2014) 5.5%
World trade (2014) 3%
Regional trade (share of total trade) 11%
Foreign Investments (2014) 4%
Energy production (2013) 3%
Education (enrolment rate) 77 %
Health workers 2%
People with HIV 71%
African economic growth
But : Slow down from 7-8% (2001-10) to 3-4 % (2015)
SSA: Poverty declines faster than hunger
Steady declining (relative) poverty:
47% (1990)  36% (2015)
But: absolute number of poor increased
280M (1990)  330M (2012)
Child mortality halved (1995-2015)
Slower decline in (child) malnutrition
High stunting (32%) & wasting (8-10%)
Grower overweight (+6 %) & obesity
Hunger & Undernutrition (1990-2015)
Number (left axis)
SSA: Production & Employment Shares
Agriculture Industry/mining Market Services Non-market services
Africa’s manufacturing
Absolute growth (ODI) Relative decline (WIDER)
Worldbank (WDR):
● Africa is de-industrializing ….
● Economic growth based on expansion of services sector
● Investments are increasingly financed with debt finance
($1 billion (2009)  $18 billion (2014)
Diverging growth paths
Urbanization Trends
UN: By 2050, two out
of every three
Africans will live in
metropolitan areas
Demographic Transition & Population Structure
SSA: Demographic Window  high share of young
working age population
Rising Middle class
AfDB (4-20$ pc): 34% (350m)
WB (>15$ pc) : 14 %
Food expenditures
Market provides 2/3 of food supplies
Supermarket Expansion
Processed foods account for 39% of food consumption (2010)
Post-harvest segment receives highest Value Added share
Selected crops: Production &
Consumption trends (2013  2023)
Dietary Change:
increases in F&V, Dairy, Poultry & Pork , Fish + Sugar & Fat
Food Availability & Imports
FAO Food Ballance Sheet : 20 % of calories are imported
Food imports
75 % of imports from outside SSA Region
Regional trade barriers & Infrastructure gaps
SSA Crop yields (1963-2010)
Annual growth rate : 1,5 -2 % over 40 years
Sources of agricultural growth
Growing importance of yield gains (input intensification)
Limited contribution of TFP growth (technological innovation)
Food Gap
Only 15% of growing SSA food demand can be met with current TFP growth
demand
production
Agrarian & Rural Change (Jayne et al.)
• Surplus land, but only in few countries (Congo,
Angola, Gabon, Cameroon)
• Declining average farm size (0.9-1.5 ha/fam)
 stagnating returns to (family) labour
• Rise of medium-size farms (20-100 ha) owned by
urban investors (telephone farmers)
• Growing land inequalities (Gini > 0.6)
• Shift to rural off/non-farm wage & self-employment
(+ migration)
• Growth corridors: concentrated development
Low agricultural labour productivity
Due to:
- Limited input
complementarities
- Scarce irrigation
- Low education
- No credit access
- Little extension
services
- High risks
SSA Post harvest losses
Potential gains in post-harvest management up to 25% (± 15) of production value
(Mainly: transport & Storage)
Double burden of malnutrition
Health challenges & Disease burden
Infectious diseases outbreaks
(2001-13)
Agricultural Policies become Food (and Health) Policies
Agriculture – Nutrition impact Pathways
Strategies for Food & Nutrition Security
Outlook & Challenges
• Diet transition  focus on F&V, Dairy, Poultry,
Pork & aquaculture (intensive farming)
• Increase (commercial farm) land & labour
productivity & reduce (value chain) losses
• Focus on food safety and quality (healthy
diets) & sustainable production (resilience)
• Development of short chains & regional trade
• Reducing food import dependency

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SSA agriculture, food systems & poverty reduction

  • 1. Agriculture, Food Systems & Poverty Reduction in sub-Sahara Africa: Urban Diet Transitions & Sustainable Food Systems Ruerd Ruben LEI - Wageningen UR
  • 2. Key Messages 1. Delayed global transformation hinders market development  food expenditures & import dependency 2. Rapid demographic growth & urbanization  Dietary transition & Double burden of maltnutrition 3. Supermarket expansion & procurement regimes  Outsourcing from agro-enterpreneurs 4. How to overcome agricultural stagnation?  Focus on risks, governance & labour productivity
  • 3. Africa in the World Indicator Share Population (2015) 18% Population (2050) 25% Production (2014) 5.5% World trade (2014) 3% Regional trade (share of total trade) 11% Foreign Investments (2014) 4% Energy production (2013) 3% Education (enrolment rate) 77 % Health workers 2% People with HIV 71%
  • 4. African economic growth But : Slow down from 7-8% (2001-10) to 3-4 % (2015)
  • 5. SSA: Poverty declines faster than hunger Steady declining (relative) poverty: 47% (1990)  36% (2015) But: absolute number of poor increased 280M (1990)  330M (2012) Child mortality halved (1995-2015) Slower decline in (child) malnutrition High stunting (32%) & wasting (8-10%) Grower overweight (+6 %) & obesity Hunger & Undernutrition (1990-2015) Number (left axis)
  • 6. SSA: Production & Employment Shares Agriculture Industry/mining Market Services Non-market services
  • 7. Africa’s manufacturing Absolute growth (ODI) Relative decline (WIDER) Worldbank (WDR): ● Africa is de-industrializing …. ● Economic growth based on expansion of services sector ● Investments are increasingly financed with debt finance ($1 billion (2009)  $18 billion (2014)
  • 9. Urbanization Trends UN: By 2050, two out of every three Africans will live in metropolitan areas
  • 10. Demographic Transition & Population Structure SSA: Demographic Window  high share of young working age population
  • 11. Rising Middle class AfDB (4-20$ pc): 34% (350m) WB (>15$ pc) : 14 %
  • 12. Food expenditures Market provides 2/3 of food supplies
  • 13. Supermarket Expansion Processed foods account for 39% of food consumption (2010) Post-harvest segment receives highest Value Added share
  • 14. Selected crops: Production & Consumption trends (2013  2023) Dietary Change: increases in F&V, Dairy, Poultry & Pork , Fish + Sugar & Fat
  • 15. Food Availability & Imports FAO Food Ballance Sheet : 20 % of calories are imported
  • 16. Food imports 75 % of imports from outside SSA Region
  • 17. Regional trade barriers & Infrastructure gaps
  • 18. SSA Crop yields (1963-2010) Annual growth rate : 1,5 -2 % over 40 years
  • 19. Sources of agricultural growth Growing importance of yield gains (input intensification) Limited contribution of TFP growth (technological innovation)
  • 20. Food Gap Only 15% of growing SSA food demand can be met with current TFP growth demand production
  • 21. Agrarian & Rural Change (Jayne et al.) • Surplus land, but only in few countries (Congo, Angola, Gabon, Cameroon) • Declining average farm size (0.9-1.5 ha/fam)  stagnating returns to (family) labour • Rise of medium-size farms (20-100 ha) owned by urban investors (telephone farmers) • Growing land inequalities (Gini > 0.6) • Shift to rural off/non-farm wage & self-employment (+ migration) • Growth corridors: concentrated development
  • 22. Low agricultural labour productivity Due to: - Limited input complementarities - Scarce irrigation - Low education - No credit access - Little extension services - High risks
  • 23. SSA Post harvest losses Potential gains in post-harvest management up to 25% (± 15) of production value (Mainly: transport & Storage)
  • 24. Double burden of malnutrition
  • 25. Health challenges & Disease burden Infectious diseases outbreaks (2001-13) Agricultural Policies become Food (and Health) Policies
  • 26. Agriculture – Nutrition impact Pathways
  • 27. Strategies for Food & Nutrition Security
  • 28. Outlook & Challenges • Diet transition  focus on F&V, Dairy, Poultry, Pork & aquaculture (intensive farming) • Increase (commercial farm) land & labour productivity & reduce (value chain) losses • Focus on food safety and quality (healthy diets) & sustainable production (resilience) • Development of short chains & regional trade • Reducing food import dependency