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State of the Nation Report 20, Focus on Australian Politics

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The document summarizes the state of Australian politics and economics in 2015. It discusses key issues facing the Abbott government including declining commodity prices, economic pressures, and leadership disunity within the LNP. Opinion polls show low approval ratings for Abbott and Shorten as well as a decline in confidence in the government. The collapse of iron ore and coal prices has significantly impacted government revenues. Continued economic issues remain the top concern for most Australians.

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State of the Nation Report 20, Focus on Australian Politics
State of the Nation Australia Spotlight on Australian Politics 29th April 2015
Discover your edge Serious Economic Issues State of the Nation 2015 Unemployment, Commodity prices, 2014 Federal Budget
Discover your edge Three Intertwined Themes State of the Nation 2015 Party Policies, Economic Pressures, International Context
Discover your edge Political Context: the Government in review State of the Nation 2015 the Government in review at the half-way mark
Discover your edge September 2013 Election Result Base: Australian electors aged 18+ Source: Australian Electoral Commission, 7 September 2013 53.5% 46.5% vs.
Discover your edge Australia’s House of Representatives (150 Seats) Source: Australian Electoral Commission 90 (L-NP) 55 (ALP) 1 (GRN) 1 (KAP) 1 (PUP) 2 (IND)
Discover your edge Key Commodities: Iron Ore, Coal, Oil State of the Nation 2015 End of the Commodities Boom tests the Abbott Government
Discover your edge Australia’s Biggest Exports (Goods & Services) (2013-14) Rank Product $AUD Billions 1. Iron ore $74.7 2. Coal $40.0 3. Natural gas $16.3 4. Education $15.7 5. Tourism $13.9 6. Gold $13.3 7. Crude Oil $10.4 8. Beef $6.4 9. Wheat $6.1 10. Aluminium $6.1 Base: Goods and services exported during the 2013-2014 financial year. Source: Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade
Discover your edgeSource: Index Mundi; Monthly data Crude Oil Price (1985 – 2015) - $US per barrel -$10 $10 $30 $50 $70 $90 $110 $130 $150 CrudeOilPrice-$USDperbarrel 1985-2002: Oil price averaged $20.90 July 2008: Oil price record high - $147.50
Discover your edge -$10 $10 $30 $50 $70 $90 $110 $130 $150 CrudeOilPrice-$USDperbarrel Source: Index Mundi; Monthly data Crude Oil Price (2003 – 2015) - $US per barrel Howard Government (1996-2007) Rudd-Gillard-Rudd Government (2007-2013) Abbott Government (2013-) September 2013 $106.31 November 2007 $94.76 Oil Price Peak $147.50
Discover your edgeSource: Index Mundi; Monthly data Thermal Coal Price (1985 – 2015) - $US per metric ton $0 $20 $40 $60 $80 $100 $120 $140 $160 $180 $200 ThermalCoalPrice-$USDpermetricton July 2008: Thermal coal record high - $192.86 Current Price $65 1985-2002: Thermal coal averaged $33.33
Discover your edgeSource: Index Mundi; Monthly data Thermal Coal Price (2003 – 2015) - $US per metric ton $0 $20 $40 $60 $80 $100 $120 $140 $160 $180 $200 IronOrePrice-$USDperdrymetricton Howard Government (1996-2007) Rudd-Gillard-Rudd Government (2007-2013) Abbott Government (2013-) Current Price $65 September 2013 $83.16 November 2007 $90.64 Thermal Coal Peak $192.86
Discover your edgeSource: Index Mundi; Monthly data Iron Ore Price (1985 – 2015) - $US per dry metric ton $0 $20 $40 $60 $80 $100 $120 $140 $160 $180 $200 IronOrePrice-$USDperdrymetricton 1985-2002: Iron ore averaged $12.54 Feb. 2011: Iron ore record high - $191.70 Current Price $55
Discover your edgeSource: Index Mundi; Monthly data Iron Ore Price (2003 – 2015) - $US per dry metric ton Iron Ore Peak February 2011 - $191.70 $0 $20 $40 $60 $80 $100 $120 $140 $160 $180 $200 IronOrePrice-$USDperdrymetricton Howard Government (1996-2007) Rudd-Gillard-Rudd Government (2007-2013) Abbott Government (2013-) Current Price $55 September 2013 $134.19 November 2007 $36.63
Discover your edge Collapse in the Iron Ore price leaves huge revenue ‘hole’ - particularly in WA State of the Nation 2015 End of the Commodities Boom tests the Abbott Government
Discover your edge Senate State of the Nation 2015 Dysfunctional Senate is a problem
Discover your edge Australian Senate (76 Seats) Source: Australian Electoral Commission 33 (L-NP) 25 (ALP) 10 (GRN) 1 (PUP) 1 (Xenophon) 1 (LDP) 1 (AMEP) 1 (Family First) 3 (IND) 8 (Other)
Discover your edge States State of the Nation 2015 It’s different State by State
Discover your edge Coalition Seats by State Source: Australian Electoral Commission NSW 30 QLD 22 VIC 16 WA 12 SA 6 TAS 3 NT 1 ACT 0
Discover your edge Politics in 2015 State of the Nation 2015 Leadership and Disunity
Discover your edge L-NP ALP Greens Palmer Independents/ Others Base: Australian electors aged 18+ Source: Roy Morgan Research Multi-Mode Morgan Poll, April 11/12 & 18/19, 2015 45.5% 38.5% 33.4% 38.0% 8.7% 12.0% 5.5% 1.0% 6.9% 10.5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% September 2013 Election April 2015 Voting Intention - Primary Vote
Discover your edge Australians’ Voting Intention Base: Australian electors aged 18+ Source: Roy Morgan Research Multi-Mode Survey, April 11/12 & 18/19, 2015 47% 53% Government Confidence 88.5pts vs.
Discover your edge Voting Intention - Federal Two Party Preferred Vote Base: Australian electors aged 18+ Source: Roy Morgan Research; weekly interviews 44.5% 55.5% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 55% 60% 65% 70% L-NP ALP Julia Gillard elected after first Hung Parliament since 1940. ALP (50.1%); L-NP (49.9%) Abbott-led L-NP wins Government after 6 years in Opposition. L-NP (53.5%); ALP (46.5%) Howard re-elected for 4th term at 2004 Election. Latham's stumbles and Tasmanian Timber Union support help Howard to win. L-NP (52.5%); ALP (47.5%) Rudd-led ALP wins Government after 11 years in Opposition. ALP (52.7%); L-NP (47.3%). Brendan Nelson is the new Oppn. Leader Beazley replaces Latham as Oppn. Leader George Bush re- elected as US President AWB Iraqi bribery scandal "Oil for Food" Malcolm Turnbull replaces Nelson as Oppn. Leader Tony Abbott replaces Turnbull as Oppn. Leader Global Financial Crisis begins as Lehman Brothers bankrupts Rudd Government stimulus packages Barack Obama elected US President Oil @ $150 a barrel RBA raises interest rates to 12 year high of 7.25% Julia Gillard proposes to introduce a price on carbon by 2012 Kevin Rudd wins ALP leadership ballot 57-45 over Julia Gillard Support for L-NP plummets after Hockey delivers his first Budget. 47.0% 53.0%
Discover your edge Disunity is death State of the Nation 2015 Leadership issues have plagued the L-NP
Discover your edge Government Confidence 88.5 State of the Nation 2015 More believe country going in the wrong direction
Discover your edge 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 2013 Federal Election results in a comprehensive victory for the Coalition led by Tony Abbott Labor led by Kevin Rudd wins the 2007 Federal Election Base: Australian electors aged 18+ Source: Roy Morgan Research; weekly interviews 2010 Federal Election results in a ‘Hung Parliament’. Gillard is returned with the backing of 3 Independents & 1 Green 152.5 – Oct 2009 April 2015 88.5 Government Confidence Rating over time
Discover your edge Leadership – a story of Disapproval State of the Nation 2015 Australians report low approval of both leaders
Discover your edge PM Tony Abbott v Bill Shorten Base: Australian electors aged 18+ Source: Roy Morgan Research Telephone Survey, April 21-23, 2015. Better PM: 44% Abbott, 39% Shorten Job Performance Abbott: 53% Disapprove, 37% Approve Shorten: 48% Disapprove, 34% Approve
Discover your edge Preferred Liberal Party Leader Base: Australian electors aged 18+ Source: Roy Morgan Research Telephone Survey, April 21-23, 2015. All electors: Malcolm Turnbull (38%); Julie Bishop (27%) and Tony Abbott (12%). L-NP supporters: Malcolm Turnbull (30%); Tony Abbott (25%); and Julie Bishop (25%).
Discover your edge Preferred Liberal Leader – All electors 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Malcolm Turnbull Julie Bishop PM Tony Abbott 38% 6% 7% 24% 12% 27% 30% 51% Joe Hockey 5% 31% 13% Base: Australian electors aged 18+ Source: Roy Morgan Research Telephone Surveys (February 2008 – April 2015)
Discover your edge Preferred Liberal Leader – L-NP supporters 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Malcolm Turnbull Julie Bishop PM Tony Abbott 30% 8% 5% 24% 25% 25% 49% 13% 4% Joe Hockey 6% 12% 35% Base: Australian electors aged 18+ Source: Roy Morgan Research Telephone Surveys (February 2008 – April 2015)
Discover your edge Preferred ALP Leader – All electors 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 Jun-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Tanya Plibersek Anthony Albanese Bill Shorten 23% 22% 15% 16% 21% 13% Wayne Swan 10%9% Base: Australian electors aged 18+ Source: Roy Morgan Research Telephone Surveys June 2014 – April 2015.
Discover your edge Preferred ALP Leader – ALP supporters 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 Jun-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Tanya Plibersek Anthony Albanese Bill Shorten 30% 32% 13% 16% 26% 11% Wayne Swan 9% 10% Base: Australian electors aged 18+ Source: Roy Morgan Research Telephone Surveys June 2014 – April 2015.
Discover your edge Politicians rate poorly for honesty and ethics State of the Nation 2015 Image of professions – shows politicians below most
Discover your edge Image of Professions - Federal Politicians cf. Nurses, Doctors, Dentists, Engineers, Police and Judges Base: Australians aged 14+ Source: Roy Morgan Research; Image of Professions Survey Nurses Doctors Engineers Dentists State Supreme Court Judges Police Federal Politicians 86% 92% 62% 84% 53% 74% 62% 71% 52% 69% 61% 69% 19% 13% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Discover your edge Federal Politicians State MPs Image of Professions - Federal Pollies cf. Pollsters, Journalists, State MPs & Union Leaders Base: Australians aged 14+ Source: Roy Morgan Research; Image of Professions Survey Union Leaders TV Reporters Newspaper Journalists Public Opinion Pollsters Talk-Back Radio Announcers 34% 29% 12% 18%18% 16%16% 15% 21% 14% 9% 14% 19% 13% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50%
Discover your edge Image of Professions - Federal Pollies cf. Stock Brokers, Real Estate Agents, Advertisers & Car Salesmen Base: Australians aged 14+ Source: Roy Morgan Research; Image of Professions Survey Business Executives Car Salesmen Stock Brokers Real Estate Agents Advertisers Federal Politicians 22% 18% 19% 13% 19% 12% 11% 9% 9% 5%4% 4% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50%
Discover your edge Economic Issues continue to worry Australians. Issues 49% say economic issues are the most important issues facing Australia – Economy, economic problems, interest rates, unemployment, the Federal Budget, cost of living, etc.
Discover your edge Most Important Issues Facing Australia Base: Australian population aged 14+ Source: Roy Morgan Research; Nation-wide telephone poll, February 4-6, 2014 (n = 664) 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Nov05 Apr-06 May-08 Nov-08 May-09 Nov-09 Feb-10 Jun-10 Sep-10 Dec-10 Feb-11 Mar-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 May-12 Jul-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Oct-13 Feb-14 Jun-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Environmental Issues Religion/ Immigration/ Human Rights Politics & Leadership Economic Issues Social Issues 14% 15% 9% 4% 4% 49% 6% 10% 9% 13% 3% War & Terrorism
Discover your edge ‘Bravery’ trumps ‘Popularity’ State of the Nation 2015 The lessons of history show the way….
Discover your edge Political/Economic Pressures State of the Nation 2015 Australian Financial Indicators: Aussie Dollar, Interest Rates, All Ordinaries
Discover your edge Exchange Rates (1969 - 2015) - AUD cf. USD Source: Reserve Bank of Australia Parity $0.00 $0.20 $0.40 $0.60 $0.80 $1.00 $1.20 $1.40 $1.60 Commodities Boom
Discover your edge RBA Interest Rates - by Prime Minister’s first, 18th and last month in office Source: Reserve Bank of Australia Monthly figures for the first month as Prime Minister; the 18th month as Prime Minister; the last month as Prime Minister 2.75% 4.50% 6.75% 7.50% 8.50% 16.73% 8.05% 4.45% 2.25% 4.25% 3.00% 5.00% 5.25% 11.07% 8.64% 18.80% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0% 16.0% 18.0% 20.0% Tony Abbott Julia Gillard Kevin Rudd John Howard Paul Keating Bob Hawke Malcolm Fraser Gough Whitlam 1st Month 18th Month Last Month
Discover your edge S&P/ASX 200 Source: Reserve Bank of Australia; value as at the last business day of each month 4,966 5,191 4,927 4,803 5,052 5,135 5,219 5,425 5,320 5,352 5,190 5,405 5,395 5,489 5,493 5,396 5,633 5,626 5,293 5,527 5,313 5,411 5,588 5,929 5,892 3,500 4,000 4,500 5,000 5,500 6,000 6,500
Discover your edge 3.0% 4.0% 3.9% 3.3% 2.4% 2.1% 1.9% 3.0% 4.2% 4.5% 5.0% 3.7% 2.5% 1.5% 1.3% 2.1% 2.9% 3.1% 2.8% 2.7% 3.3% 3.6% 3.5% 3.1% 1.6% 1.2% 1.4% 2.2% 2.5% 2.4% 2.2% 2.7% 2.9% 3.0% 2.2% 1.6% 1.3% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Annual Inflation Rate - Percentage change from previous year* *The figures provided represent the difference between the current quarterly inflation rate figure and the same quarter 12 months ago. Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Discover your edge Consumer Confidence 111.8 State of the Nation 2015 ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Base: Australian population aged 14+ Source: Roy Morgan Research; April 2015
Discover your edge Australia is nowhere near as confident as Asian neighbours Australasian Consumer Confidence ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence shows Australia behind Indonesia 154.1, China 144.5 and even our neighbours in New Zealand 124.6 Source: Roy Morgan Research; March 2015
Discover your edge ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence - Monthly Asia-Pacific Consumer Confidence Base: Asia-Pacific countries; March 2015 Base: Australians aged 14+ ; April 2015 Source: Roy Morgan Research 154.1 144.5 124.6 108.8 100.0 110.0 120.0 130.0 140.0 150.0 160.0 170.0 180.0 Indonesia China New Zealand Australia
Discover your edge Base: Australian population aged 14+ Source: Roy Morgan Research; Monthly figures for the first month as Prime Minister; the 18th month as Prime Minister; the last month as Prime Minister 124.1 123.6 126.8 123.7 83.0 97.4 103.0 119.2 111.8 111.0 113.5 112.4 96.2 118.2 103.8 95.6 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 Tony Abbott Julia Gillard Kevin Rudd John Howard Paul Keating Bob Hawke Malcolm Fraser Gough Whitlam 1st Month 18th Month Last Month ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence - by Prime Minister’s first, 18th and last month in office
Discover your edge ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence (Monthly) - by State Base: Australians aged 14+ Source: Roy Morgan Research; March 2015 113.0 112.7 112.1 111.4 108.8 105.5 March 2015 Australia 111.3 100 102 104 106 108 110 112 114 South Australia Victoria Western Australia New South Wales Queensland Tasmania
Discover your edge ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence vs All Ords 1986 - 2015 Source: Reserve Bank of Australia; value as at the last business day of each month Base: Australian population aged 14+ Source: Roy Morgan Research; Monthly data 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 All Ordinaries Share Index (LHS) ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence (RHS)
Discover your edge ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence vs All Ords 2007 - 2015 Source: Reserve Bank of Australia; value as at the last business day of each month Base: Australian population aged 14+ Source: Roy Morgan Research; Monthly data 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 5,000 5,500 6,000 6,500 7,000 All Ordinaries Share Index (LHS) ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence (RHS)
Discover your edge ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence vs All Ords 2013 - 2015 Source: Reserve Bank of Australia; value as at the last business day of each month Base: Australian population aged 14+ Source: Roy Morgan Research; Monthly data 100 105 110 115 120 125 5,000.0 5,100.0 5,200.0 5,300.0 5,400.0 5,500.0 5,600.0 5,700.0 5,800.0 5,900.0 6,000.0 ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence (RHS) All Ordinaries Share Index (LHS)
Discover your edge Business Confidence 112.4 State of the Nation 2015 Roy Morgan Business Confidence Base: Australian Businesses Source: Roy Morgan Research; March 2015
Discover your edge Business Confidence Base: Australian Businesses Source: Roy Morgan Research; Monthly data 131.5 99.8 118.7 105.4 123.8 136.3 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 112.4
Discover your edge Roy Morgan Business Confidence (March quarter) - by State Note: ACT and NT have been excluded from chart due to low sample size. Base: Australian Businesses Source: Roy Morgan Research; January 2015 to March 2015 117.9 115.5 112.4 108.4 107.4 106.0 100 105 110 115 120 Tasmania Victoria New South Wales Queensland South Australia Western Australia Australian Business Confidence 111.0
Discover your edge Roy Morgan Business Confidence - by Business Size Base: Australian Businesses Source: Roy Morgan Research; 6 month moving averages 112.7 111.3 124.6 120.5 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 Micro Medium/Large All Businesses Small
Discover your edge Unemployment at 10.8% is far too high State of the Nation 2015 2.3 million Australians unemployed or under-employed. Young people hit the hardest. Source: Roy Morgan Research; March 2015
Discover your edge Level of Workforce Unemployment Source: Roy Morgan Research; Monthly data Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics; Monthly data 9.4% 6.9% 7.3% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% %ofworkforce ABS Seasonally Adjusted 6.1% ABS Original (Trend) 6.2% Roy Morgan Research 10.8%
Discover your edge Roy Morgan Research Australian Bureau of Statistics Base: Australians aged 14+ Source: Roy Morgan Research; Telephone Polls – June 2013, June 2014 & April 2015. 58% 55% 60% 21% 33% 29% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% June 2013 June 2014 April 2015 Unemployment – 60% of Australians now believe Roy Morgan 10.8% is closer to reality
Discover your edge Unemployment by Age Base: Australians in the workforce aged 14+ Source: Roy Morgan Research; 6 month moving average 7.9% 14.5% 5.7% 4.9% 3.3% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% %workforceunemployedineachagegroup 14-29 16.4% 45-59 7.2% 60 and over 7.6% Australians 14+ 30-44 10.3%8.6%
Discover your edge Unemployment & Under-Employment Australia vs. the United States of America Source: Roy Morgan Research; Monthly data Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics; Monthly data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; Monthly data 15.9% 18.5% 5.0% 5.5% 8.4% 11.0% 5.1% 6.1% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% Australia: Roy Morgan Unemployment & Under-employment USA: U6 Unemployment USA: U3 Unemployment Australia: ABS Unemployment
Discover your edge US Unemployment – Policy Makers Aware Source: The Wall Street Journal
Discover your edge Roy Morgan Unemployment & Under-Employment - by Prime Minister’s first, 18th and last month in office *Total Australian Unemployment & Under-employment rose above 2 million Australians in December 2011 – it has stayed above 2 million ever since – 40 straight months. Base: Australians in the workforce aged 14+ Source: Roy Morgan Research; Monthly figures for the first month; the 18th month; the last month as Prime Minister 1st Month 18th Month Change Last Month PM Tony Abbott 18.3% 18.5% +0.2 pts (incumbent) PM Julia Gillard 12.4% 16.8% +4.4 pts 18.9% PM Kevin Rudd 11.8% 16.6% +4.8 pts 12.4% 1st Month 18th Month Change Last Month PM Tony Abbott 2.286 million 2.344 million +58,000 (incumbent) PM Julia Gillard 1.435 million 2.012 million* +577,000 2.346 million PM Kevin Rudd 1.263 million 1.829 million +566,000 1.435 million
Discover your edge Unemployment’s economic consequences State of the Nation 2015
Discover your edge International Context State of the Nation 2015 Global unrest; Asian engagement; trade deals
Discover your edgeBase: Goods and services exported during the 2013-2014 financial year. Source: Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade Rank Country $AUD Billions % Share of Total 1. China $159.6 23.9% 2. Japan $72.2 10.8% 3. United States $58.2 8.7% 4. South Korea $34.6 5.2% 5. Singapore $29.5 4.4% 6. New Zealand $22.7 3.4% 7. United Kingdom $20.3 3.0% 8. Malaysia $19.9 3.0% 9. Thailand $18.8 2.8% 10. Germany $16.8 2.5% Australia’s Biggest Trading Partners (2013-14)
Discover your edgeSource: Australian Bureau of Statistics -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% China GDP growth Australian GDP growth Australian average GDP growth (1980-2014) - 3.2% China average GDP growth (1980-2014) - 9.7% China vs. Australia - GDP Growth 1980 - 2015
Discover your edge Unemployment and Trade = tension State of the Nation 2015 Winners and Losers
Discover your edge Terrorism and War State of the Nation 2015 Increased concern means terrorism and war is as big a concern globally as the economy
Discover your edge Indonesian – Australian relations State of the Nation 2015 The biggest sleeper of all
Discover your edge Asylum Seekers – a sleeper State of the Nation 2015 The complex set of issues surrounding asylum seeker has not been resolved
Discover your edge In Summary State of the Nation 2015
Discover your edge Both Consumer Confidence & Business Confidence are down from the 2013 Federal Election. In Summary: State of the Nation 2015
Discover your edge Economic Issues still dominate for Australians. In Summary: State of the Nation 2015
Discover your edge The end of the ‘Commodities Boom’ is an economic ‘shock’ but provides opportunities. In Summary: State of the Nation 2015
Discover your edge Despite falling behind, the Abbott Government has every chance to win the next Election. In Summary: State of the Nation 2015
Discover your edge Implementing necessary but unpopular reforms can often be the best way to regain support. In Summary: State of the Nation 2015
Discover your edge Unemployment and Under-employment remain a huge problem in Australia – now well above USA. In Summary: Australia’s real level of unemployment (10.8% - 1.37 million) and under-employment (7.7% - 970,000) is far higher than the official ABS unemployment estimate (6.1% - 760,000). More than 2.34 million Australians are looking for work or looking for more work. Youth unemployment is particularly bad (16.4%).
Discover your edge A prediction for the next election: In Summary: State of the Nation 2015
Discover your edge It’s going to be an interesting 18 months… State of the Nation 2015 The Key Areas of Change
State of the Nation Report 20, Focus on Australian Politics
Discover your edge Real Unemployment – too high Interest Rates – too high Iron Ore Prices – too low The Chinese Economy – in decline!
Discover your edge Day of reckoning: why our economy needs a recession STIRLING LARKIN, APRIL 25, 2015 Wrong, Federal Government needs to tackle the issues now: • Increase workplace productivity – (Abbott should step down or break naive promise of no IR reform) • Eliminate the cash economy • Tackle corruption at every level of the economy – corporate, unions & government. • Real competition in the private sector • Open Government tenders – too many ‘tenders’ now awarded to ‘mates’ • Accurate Government data – increase government efficiency by tendering services. eg. ABS surveys
State of the Nation Report 20, Focus on Australian Politics

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State of the Nation Report 20, Focus on Australian Politics

  • 2. State of the Nation Australia Spotlight on Australian Politics 29th April 2015
  • 3. Discover your edge Serious Economic Issues State of the Nation 2015 Unemployment, Commodity prices, 2014 Federal Budget
  • 4. Discover your edge Three Intertwined Themes State of the Nation 2015 Party Policies, Economic Pressures, International Context
  • 5. Discover your edge Political Context: the Government in review State of the Nation 2015 the Government in review at the half-way mark
  • 6. Discover your edge September 2013 Election Result Base: Australian electors aged 18+ Source: Australian Electoral Commission, 7 September 2013 53.5% 46.5% vs.
  • 7. Discover your edge Australia’s House of Representatives (150 Seats) Source: Australian Electoral Commission 90 (L-NP) 55 (ALP) 1 (GRN) 1 (KAP) 1 (PUP) 2 (IND)
  • 8. Discover your edge Key Commodities: Iron Ore, Coal, Oil State of the Nation 2015 End of the Commodities Boom tests the Abbott Government
  • 9. Discover your edge Australia’s Biggest Exports (Goods & Services) (2013-14) Rank Product $AUD Billions 1. Iron ore $74.7 2. Coal $40.0 3. Natural gas $16.3 4. Education $15.7 5. Tourism $13.9 6. Gold $13.3 7. Crude Oil $10.4 8. Beef $6.4 9. Wheat $6.1 10. Aluminium $6.1 Base: Goods and services exported during the 2013-2014 financial year. Source: Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade
  • 10. Discover your edgeSource: Index Mundi; Monthly data Crude Oil Price (1985 – 2015) - $US per barrel -$10 $10 $30 $50 $70 $90 $110 $130 $150 CrudeOilPrice-$USDperbarrel 1985-2002: Oil price averaged $20.90 July 2008: Oil price record high - $147.50
  • 11. Discover your edge -$10 $10 $30 $50 $70 $90 $110 $130 $150 CrudeOilPrice-$USDperbarrel Source: Index Mundi; Monthly data Crude Oil Price (2003 – 2015) - $US per barrel Howard Government (1996-2007) Rudd-Gillard-Rudd Government (2007-2013) Abbott Government (2013-) September 2013 $106.31 November 2007 $94.76 Oil Price Peak $147.50
  • 12. Discover your edgeSource: Index Mundi; Monthly data Thermal Coal Price (1985 – 2015) - $US per metric ton $0 $20 $40 $60 $80 $100 $120 $140 $160 $180 $200 ThermalCoalPrice-$USDpermetricton July 2008: Thermal coal record high - $192.86 Current Price $65 1985-2002: Thermal coal averaged $33.33
  • 13. Discover your edgeSource: Index Mundi; Monthly data Thermal Coal Price (2003 – 2015) - $US per metric ton $0 $20 $40 $60 $80 $100 $120 $140 $160 $180 $200 IronOrePrice-$USDperdrymetricton Howard Government (1996-2007) Rudd-Gillard-Rudd Government (2007-2013) Abbott Government (2013-) Current Price $65 September 2013 $83.16 November 2007 $90.64 Thermal Coal Peak $192.86
  • 14. Discover your edgeSource: Index Mundi; Monthly data Iron Ore Price (1985 – 2015) - $US per dry metric ton $0 $20 $40 $60 $80 $100 $120 $140 $160 $180 $200 IronOrePrice-$USDperdrymetricton 1985-2002: Iron ore averaged $12.54 Feb. 2011: Iron ore record high - $191.70 Current Price $55
  • 15. Discover your edgeSource: Index Mundi; Monthly data Iron Ore Price (2003 – 2015) - $US per dry metric ton Iron Ore Peak February 2011 - $191.70 $0 $20 $40 $60 $80 $100 $120 $140 $160 $180 $200 IronOrePrice-$USDperdrymetricton Howard Government (1996-2007) Rudd-Gillard-Rudd Government (2007-2013) Abbott Government (2013-) Current Price $55 September 2013 $134.19 November 2007 $36.63
  • 16. Discover your edge Collapse in the Iron Ore price leaves huge revenue ‘hole’ - particularly in WA State of the Nation 2015 End of the Commodities Boom tests the Abbott Government
  • 17. Discover your edge Senate State of the Nation 2015 Dysfunctional Senate is a problem
  • 18. Discover your edge Australian Senate (76 Seats) Source: Australian Electoral Commission 33 (L-NP) 25 (ALP) 10 (GRN) 1 (PUP) 1 (Xenophon) 1 (LDP) 1 (AMEP) 1 (Family First) 3 (IND) 8 (Other)
  • 19. Discover your edge States State of the Nation 2015 It’s different State by State
  • 20. Discover your edge Coalition Seats by State Source: Australian Electoral Commission NSW 30 QLD 22 VIC 16 WA 12 SA 6 TAS 3 NT 1 ACT 0
  • 21. Discover your edge Politics in 2015 State of the Nation 2015 Leadership and Disunity
  • 22. Discover your edge L-NP ALP Greens Palmer Independents/ Others Base: Australian electors aged 18+ Source: Roy Morgan Research Multi-Mode Morgan Poll, April 11/12 & 18/19, 2015 45.5% 38.5% 33.4% 38.0% 8.7% 12.0% 5.5% 1.0% 6.9% 10.5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% September 2013 Election April 2015 Voting Intention - Primary Vote
  • 23. Discover your edge Australians’ Voting Intention Base: Australian electors aged 18+ Source: Roy Morgan Research Multi-Mode Survey, April 11/12 & 18/19, 2015 47% 53% Government Confidence 88.5pts vs.
  • 24. Discover your edge Voting Intention - Federal Two Party Preferred Vote Base: Australian electors aged 18+ Source: Roy Morgan Research; weekly interviews 44.5% 55.5% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 55% 60% 65% 70% L-NP ALP Julia Gillard elected after first Hung Parliament since 1940. ALP (50.1%); L-NP (49.9%) Abbott-led L-NP wins Government after 6 years in Opposition. L-NP (53.5%); ALP (46.5%) Howard re-elected for 4th term at 2004 Election. Latham's stumbles and Tasmanian Timber Union support help Howard to win. L-NP (52.5%); ALP (47.5%) Rudd-led ALP wins Government after 11 years in Opposition. ALP (52.7%); L-NP (47.3%). Brendan Nelson is the new Oppn. Leader Beazley replaces Latham as Oppn. Leader George Bush re- elected as US President AWB Iraqi bribery scandal "Oil for Food" Malcolm Turnbull replaces Nelson as Oppn. Leader Tony Abbott replaces Turnbull as Oppn. Leader Global Financial Crisis begins as Lehman Brothers bankrupts Rudd Government stimulus packages Barack Obama elected US President Oil @ $150 a barrel RBA raises interest rates to 12 year high of 7.25% Julia Gillard proposes to introduce a price on carbon by 2012 Kevin Rudd wins ALP leadership ballot 57-45 over Julia Gillard Support for L-NP plummets after Hockey delivers his first Budget. 47.0% 53.0%
  • 25. Discover your edge Disunity is death State of the Nation 2015 Leadership issues have plagued the L-NP
  • 26. Discover your edge Government Confidence 88.5 State of the Nation 2015 More believe country going in the wrong direction
  • 27. Discover your edge 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 2013 Federal Election results in a comprehensive victory for the Coalition led by Tony Abbott Labor led by Kevin Rudd wins the 2007 Federal Election Base: Australian electors aged 18+ Source: Roy Morgan Research; weekly interviews 2010 Federal Election results in a ‘Hung Parliament’. Gillard is returned with the backing of 3 Independents & 1 Green 152.5 – Oct 2009 April 2015 88.5 Government Confidence Rating over time
  • 28. Discover your edge Leadership – a story of Disapproval State of the Nation 2015 Australians report low approval of both leaders
  • 29. Discover your edge PM Tony Abbott v Bill Shorten Base: Australian electors aged 18+ Source: Roy Morgan Research Telephone Survey, April 21-23, 2015. Better PM: 44% Abbott, 39% Shorten Job Performance Abbott: 53% Disapprove, 37% Approve Shorten: 48% Disapprove, 34% Approve
  • 30. Discover your edge Preferred Liberal Party Leader Base: Australian electors aged 18+ Source: Roy Morgan Research Telephone Survey, April 21-23, 2015. All electors: Malcolm Turnbull (38%); Julie Bishop (27%) and Tony Abbott (12%). L-NP supporters: Malcolm Turnbull (30%); Tony Abbott (25%); and Julie Bishop (25%).
  • 31. Discover your edge Preferred Liberal Leader – All electors 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Malcolm Turnbull Julie Bishop PM Tony Abbott 38% 6% 7% 24% 12% 27% 30% 51% Joe Hockey 5% 31% 13% Base: Australian electors aged 18+ Source: Roy Morgan Research Telephone Surveys (February 2008 – April 2015)
  • 32. Discover your edge Preferred Liberal Leader – L-NP supporters 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Malcolm Turnbull Julie Bishop PM Tony Abbott 30% 8% 5% 24% 25% 25% 49% 13% 4% Joe Hockey 6% 12% 35% Base: Australian electors aged 18+ Source: Roy Morgan Research Telephone Surveys (February 2008 – April 2015)
  • 33. Discover your edge Preferred ALP Leader – All electors 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 Jun-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Tanya Plibersek Anthony Albanese Bill Shorten 23% 22% 15% 16% 21% 13% Wayne Swan 10%9% Base: Australian electors aged 18+ Source: Roy Morgan Research Telephone Surveys June 2014 – April 2015.
  • 34. Discover your edge Preferred ALP Leader – ALP supporters 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 Jun-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Tanya Plibersek Anthony Albanese Bill Shorten 30% 32% 13% 16% 26% 11% Wayne Swan 9% 10% Base: Australian electors aged 18+ Source: Roy Morgan Research Telephone Surveys June 2014 – April 2015.
  • 35. Discover your edge Politicians rate poorly for honesty and ethics State of the Nation 2015 Image of professions – shows politicians below most
  • 36. Discover your edge Image of Professions - Federal Politicians cf. Nurses, Doctors, Dentists, Engineers, Police and Judges Base: Australians aged 14+ Source: Roy Morgan Research; Image of Professions Survey Nurses Doctors Engineers Dentists State Supreme Court Judges Police Federal Politicians 86% 92% 62% 84% 53% 74% 62% 71% 52% 69% 61% 69% 19% 13% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
  • 37. Discover your edge Federal Politicians State MPs Image of Professions - Federal Pollies cf. Pollsters, Journalists, State MPs & Union Leaders Base: Australians aged 14+ Source: Roy Morgan Research; Image of Professions Survey Union Leaders TV Reporters Newspaper Journalists Public Opinion Pollsters Talk-Back Radio Announcers 34% 29% 12% 18%18% 16%16% 15% 21% 14% 9% 14% 19% 13% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50%
  • 38. Discover your edge Image of Professions - Federal Pollies cf. Stock Brokers, Real Estate Agents, Advertisers & Car Salesmen Base: Australians aged 14+ Source: Roy Morgan Research; Image of Professions Survey Business Executives Car Salesmen Stock Brokers Real Estate Agents Advertisers Federal Politicians 22% 18% 19% 13% 19% 12% 11% 9% 9% 5%4% 4% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50%
  • 39. Discover your edge Economic Issues continue to worry Australians. Issues 49% say economic issues are the most important issues facing Australia – Economy, economic problems, interest rates, unemployment, the Federal Budget, cost of living, etc.
  • 40. Discover your edge Most Important Issues Facing Australia Base: Australian population aged 14+ Source: Roy Morgan Research; Nation-wide telephone poll, February 4-6, 2014 (n = 664) 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Nov05 Apr-06 May-08 Nov-08 May-09 Nov-09 Feb-10 Jun-10 Sep-10 Dec-10 Feb-11 Mar-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 May-12 Jul-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Oct-13 Feb-14 Jun-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Environmental Issues Religion/ Immigration/ Human Rights Politics & Leadership Economic Issues Social Issues 14% 15% 9% 4% 4% 49% 6% 10% 9% 13% 3% War & Terrorism
  • 41. Discover your edge ‘Bravery’ trumps ‘Popularity’ State of the Nation 2015 The lessons of history show the way….
  • 42. Discover your edge Political/Economic Pressures State of the Nation 2015 Australian Financial Indicators: Aussie Dollar, Interest Rates, All Ordinaries
  • 43. Discover your edge Exchange Rates (1969 - 2015) - AUD cf. USD Source: Reserve Bank of Australia Parity $0.00 $0.20 $0.40 $0.60 $0.80 $1.00 $1.20 $1.40 $1.60 Commodities Boom
  • 44. Discover your edge RBA Interest Rates - by Prime Minister’s first, 18th and last month in office Source: Reserve Bank of Australia Monthly figures for the first month as Prime Minister; the 18th month as Prime Minister; the last month as Prime Minister 2.75% 4.50% 6.75% 7.50% 8.50% 16.73% 8.05% 4.45% 2.25% 4.25% 3.00% 5.00% 5.25% 11.07% 8.64% 18.80% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0% 16.0% 18.0% 20.0% Tony Abbott Julia Gillard Kevin Rudd John Howard Paul Keating Bob Hawke Malcolm Fraser Gough Whitlam 1st Month 18th Month Last Month
  • 45. Discover your edge S&P/ASX 200 Source: Reserve Bank of Australia; value as at the last business day of each month 4,966 5,191 4,927 4,803 5,052 5,135 5,219 5,425 5,320 5,352 5,190 5,405 5,395 5,489 5,493 5,396 5,633 5,626 5,293 5,527 5,313 5,411 5,588 5,929 5,892 3,500 4,000 4,500 5,000 5,500 6,000 6,500
  • 46. Discover your edge 3.0% 4.0% 3.9% 3.3% 2.4% 2.1% 1.9% 3.0% 4.2% 4.5% 5.0% 3.7% 2.5% 1.5% 1.3% 2.1% 2.9% 3.1% 2.8% 2.7% 3.3% 3.6% 3.5% 3.1% 1.6% 1.2% 1.4% 2.2% 2.5% 2.4% 2.2% 2.7% 2.9% 3.0% 2.2% 1.6% 1.3% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Annual Inflation Rate - Percentage change from previous year* *The figures provided represent the difference between the current quarterly inflation rate figure and the same quarter 12 months ago. Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
  • 47. Discover your edge Consumer Confidence 111.8 State of the Nation 2015 ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Base: Australian population aged 14+ Source: Roy Morgan Research; April 2015
  • 48. Discover your edge Australia is nowhere near as confident as Asian neighbours Australasian Consumer Confidence ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence shows Australia behind Indonesia 154.1, China 144.5 and even our neighbours in New Zealand 124.6 Source: Roy Morgan Research; March 2015
  • 49. Discover your edge ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence - Monthly Asia-Pacific Consumer Confidence Base: Asia-Pacific countries; March 2015 Base: Australians aged 14+ ; April 2015 Source: Roy Morgan Research 154.1 144.5 124.6 108.8 100.0 110.0 120.0 130.0 140.0 150.0 160.0 170.0 180.0 Indonesia China New Zealand Australia
  • 50. Discover your edge Base: Australian population aged 14+ Source: Roy Morgan Research; Monthly figures for the first month as Prime Minister; the 18th month as Prime Minister; the last month as Prime Minister 124.1 123.6 126.8 123.7 83.0 97.4 103.0 119.2 111.8 111.0 113.5 112.4 96.2 118.2 103.8 95.6 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 Tony Abbott Julia Gillard Kevin Rudd John Howard Paul Keating Bob Hawke Malcolm Fraser Gough Whitlam 1st Month 18th Month Last Month ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence - by Prime Minister’s first, 18th and last month in office
  • 51. Discover your edge ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence (Monthly) - by State Base: Australians aged 14+ Source: Roy Morgan Research; March 2015 113.0 112.7 112.1 111.4 108.8 105.5 March 2015 Australia 111.3 100 102 104 106 108 110 112 114 South Australia Victoria Western Australia New South Wales Queensland Tasmania
  • 52. Discover your edge ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence vs All Ords 1986 - 2015 Source: Reserve Bank of Australia; value as at the last business day of each month Base: Australian population aged 14+ Source: Roy Morgan Research; Monthly data 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 All Ordinaries Share Index (LHS) ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence (RHS)
  • 53. Discover your edge ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence vs All Ords 2007 - 2015 Source: Reserve Bank of Australia; value as at the last business day of each month Base: Australian population aged 14+ Source: Roy Morgan Research; Monthly data 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 5,000 5,500 6,000 6,500 7,000 All Ordinaries Share Index (LHS) ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence (RHS)
  • 54. Discover your edge ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence vs All Ords 2013 - 2015 Source: Reserve Bank of Australia; value as at the last business day of each month Base: Australian population aged 14+ Source: Roy Morgan Research; Monthly data 100 105 110 115 120 125 5,000.0 5,100.0 5,200.0 5,300.0 5,400.0 5,500.0 5,600.0 5,700.0 5,800.0 5,900.0 6,000.0 ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence (RHS) All Ordinaries Share Index (LHS)
  • 55. Discover your edge Business Confidence 112.4 State of the Nation 2015 Roy Morgan Business Confidence Base: Australian Businesses Source: Roy Morgan Research; March 2015
  • 56. Discover your edge Business Confidence Base: Australian Businesses Source: Roy Morgan Research; Monthly data 131.5 99.8 118.7 105.4 123.8 136.3 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 112.4
  • 57. Discover your edge Roy Morgan Business Confidence (March quarter) - by State Note: ACT and NT have been excluded from chart due to low sample size. Base: Australian Businesses Source: Roy Morgan Research; January 2015 to March 2015 117.9 115.5 112.4 108.4 107.4 106.0 100 105 110 115 120 Tasmania Victoria New South Wales Queensland South Australia Western Australia Australian Business Confidence 111.0
  • 58. Discover your edge Roy Morgan Business Confidence - by Business Size Base: Australian Businesses Source: Roy Morgan Research; 6 month moving averages 112.7 111.3 124.6 120.5 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 Micro Medium/Large All Businesses Small
  • 59. Discover your edge Unemployment at 10.8% is far too high State of the Nation 2015 2.3 million Australians unemployed or under-employed. Young people hit the hardest. Source: Roy Morgan Research; March 2015
  • 60. Discover your edge Level of Workforce Unemployment Source: Roy Morgan Research; Monthly data Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics; Monthly data 9.4% 6.9% 7.3% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% %ofworkforce ABS Seasonally Adjusted 6.1% ABS Original (Trend) 6.2% Roy Morgan Research 10.8%
  • 61. Discover your edge Roy Morgan Research Australian Bureau of Statistics Base: Australians aged 14+ Source: Roy Morgan Research; Telephone Polls – June 2013, June 2014 & April 2015. 58% 55% 60% 21% 33% 29% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% June 2013 June 2014 April 2015 Unemployment – 60% of Australians now believe Roy Morgan 10.8% is closer to reality
  • 62. Discover your edge Unemployment by Age Base: Australians in the workforce aged 14+ Source: Roy Morgan Research; 6 month moving average 7.9% 14.5% 5.7% 4.9% 3.3% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% %workforceunemployedineachagegroup 14-29 16.4% 45-59 7.2% 60 and over 7.6% Australians 14+ 30-44 10.3%8.6%
  • 63. Discover your edge Unemployment & Under-Employment Australia vs. the United States of America Source: Roy Morgan Research; Monthly data Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics; Monthly data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; Monthly data 15.9% 18.5% 5.0% 5.5% 8.4% 11.0% 5.1% 6.1% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% Australia: Roy Morgan Unemployment & Under-employment USA: U6 Unemployment USA: U3 Unemployment Australia: ABS Unemployment
  • 64. Discover your edge US Unemployment – Policy Makers Aware Source: The Wall Street Journal
  • 65. Discover your edge Roy Morgan Unemployment & Under-Employment - by Prime Minister’s first, 18th and last month in office *Total Australian Unemployment & Under-employment rose above 2 million Australians in December 2011 – it has stayed above 2 million ever since – 40 straight months. Base: Australians in the workforce aged 14+ Source: Roy Morgan Research; Monthly figures for the first month; the 18th month; the last month as Prime Minister 1st Month 18th Month Change Last Month PM Tony Abbott 18.3% 18.5% +0.2 pts (incumbent) PM Julia Gillard 12.4% 16.8% +4.4 pts 18.9% PM Kevin Rudd 11.8% 16.6% +4.8 pts 12.4% 1st Month 18th Month Change Last Month PM Tony Abbott 2.286 million 2.344 million +58,000 (incumbent) PM Julia Gillard 1.435 million 2.012 million* +577,000 2.346 million PM Kevin Rudd 1.263 million 1.829 million +566,000 1.435 million
  • 66. Discover your edge Unemployment’s economic consequences State of the Nation 2015
  • 67. Discover your edge International Context State of the Nation 2015 Global unrest; Asian engagement; trade deals
  • 68. Discover your edgeBase: Goods and services exported during the 2013-2014 financial year. Source: Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade Rank Country $AUD Billions % Share of Total 1. China $159.6 23.9% 2. Japan $72.2 10.8% 3. United States $58.2 8.7% 4. South Korea $34.6 5.2% 5. Singapore $29.5 4.4% 6. New Zealand $22.7 3.4% 7. United Kingdom $20.3 3.0% 8. Malaysia $19.9 3.0% 9. Thailand $18.8 2.8% 10. Germany $16.8 2.5% Australia’s Biggest Trading Partners (2013-14)
  • 69. Discover your edgeSource: Australian Bureau of Statistics -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% China GDP growth Australian GDP growth Australian average GDP growth (1980-2014) - 3.2% China average GDP growth (1980-2014) - 9.7% China vs. Australia - GDP Growth 1980 - 2015
  • 70. Discover your edge Unemployment and Trade = tension State of the Nation 2015 Winners and Losers
  • 71. Discover your edge Terrorism and War State of the Nation 2015 Increased concern means terrorism and war is as big a concern globally as the economy
  • 72. Discover your edge Indonesian – Australian relations State of the Nation 2015 The biggest sleeper of all
  • 73. Discover your edge Asylum Seekers – a sleeper State of the Nation 2015 The complex set of issues surrounding asylum seeker has not been resolved
  • 74. Discover your edge In Summary State of the Nation 2015
  • 75. Discover your edge Both Consumer Confidence & Business Confidence are down from the 2013 Federal Election. In Summary: State of the Nation 2015
  • 76. Discover your edge Economic Issues still dominate for Australians. In Summary: State of the Nation 2015
  • 77. Discover your edge The end of the ‘Commodities Boom’ is an economic ‘shock’ but provides opportunities. In Summary: State of the Nation 2015
  • 78. Discover your edge Despite falling behind, the Abbott Government has every chance to win the next Election. In Summary: State of the Nation 2015
  • 79. Discover your edge Implementing necessary but unpopular reforms can often be the best way to regain support. In Summary: State of the Nation 2015
  • 80. Discover your edge Unemployment and Under-employment remain a huge problem in Australia – now well above USA. In Summary: Australia’s real level of unemployment (10.8% - 1.37 million) and under-employment (7.7% - 970,000) is far higher than the official ABS unemployment estimate (6.1% - 760,000). More than 2.34 million Australians are looking for work or looking for more work. Youth unemployment is particularly bad (16.4%).
  • 81. Discover your edge A prediction for the next election: In Summary: State of the Nation 2015
  • 82. Discover your edge It’s going to be an interesting 18 months… State of the Nation 2015 The Key Areas of Change
  • 84. Discover your edge Real Unemployment – too high Interest Rates – too high Iron Ore Prices – too low The Chinese Economy – in decline!
  • 85. Discover your edge Day of reckoning: why our economy needs a recession STIRLING LARKIN, APRIL 25, 2015 Wrong, Federal Government needs to tackle the issues now: • Increase workplace productivity – (Abbott should step down or break naive promise of no IR reform) • Eliminate the cash economy • Tackle corruption at every level of the economy – corporate, unions & government. • Real competition in the private sector • Open Government tenders – too many ‘tenders’ now awarded to ‘mates’ • Accurate Government data – increase government efficiency by tendering services. eg. ABS surveys