Stormy Decade - A Ten-Year Retrospective on the Ukrainian Investment Landscape

DECADE:
A Ten-Year Retrospective
on the Ukrainian
Investment Landscape
STORMY 10 Years of Investments:
Growth, Challenges, Prospects,
Trends, Visions, Insights
and Projections
ofﬁce@uvca.eu uvca.eu

CONTENTS
About UVCA p. 4
Foreword p. 5
Executive Summary p. 14
Ukrainian Fund of Funds p. 19
Section 1: Investment Market Dynamics p. 20
Section 2: Sectoral and Geographical Analysis p. 33
Section 3: The Impact of War p. 40
Section 4: Investment Impact Assessment p. 48
Section 5: Projections p. 57
Glossary p. 82
3

About UVCA
Ukrainian Venture Capital and Private Equity Association (UVCA) is a non-profit
organization headquartered in Kyiv, Ukraine, with offices in the EU (Warsaw, Brussels)
and the USA (Washington, DC).
UVCA was established in 2014, starting with 7 members and has grown to an
investment platform for over 50 members who continue to invest in Ukrainian and global
entrepreneurs with outstanding solutions.
UVCA’s mission is to promote awareness of Ukraine’s achievements and opportunities
and to support investors in every aspect, from providing reliable information to
establishing international connections at the industry and government levels.
On the other hand, blossoming local technology sector has triggered emergence of new
local investors, who certainly benefit from their Western peers sharing their expertise
and best practices.
By building a bridge between Ukrainian and global ecosystems, UVCA facilitates the
flow of knowledge and capital in both directions.
UVCA shapes the future direction of the venture capital and private equity industry in
Ukraine by promoting its investment opportunities, advocating for the interests of private
equity investors to policymakers, and improving the local investment and business
climate.
4

FOREWORD
Purpose of the Report:
This report provides a comprehensive overview of the development of the
Ukrainian investment market over the past ten years (2014-2024). It aims to
summarize key trends, highlight significant deals, analyze the impact of
external factors (particularly the full-scale war), and outline future prospects
for investment in Ukraine.
Target Audience:
This report is intended for a wide range of readers interested in the
Ukrainian investment market, including:
• Domestic and international investors: To assess investment opportunities
and risks in Ukraine.
• Business representatives: To understand market trends and identify
potential partners or investment targets.
• Financial analysts and consultants: To conduct research and provide
recommendations to clients.
• Government officials and policymakers: To develop policies aimed at
improving the investment climate.
• Representatives of the academic community and researchers: As a
source of information for scientific research.
• Journalists and media representatives: To cover the topic of investment
in Ukraine.
Acknowledgments:
We express our sincere gratitude to our partners who provided valuable
information, analytics, and expert opinions for this report:
• AVentures Capital, Capital Times, InVenture Investment Group: For
providing data from their proprietary databases of M&A and venture
capital deals.
• Forbes Ukraine, AIN.UA, Liga.net, Ekonomichna Pravda,
Interfax-Ukraine: For providing information from open sources and
analytical materials.
• KPMG: For providing data from the "M&A Radar: Ukraine" report
• Other market participants: For expert comments and insights.
We also thank everyone who contributed to the preparation of this report
for their support and contribution – UVCA members, market experts,
stakeholders and partners.
Sincere gratitude to our General Sponsors – Wolf Theiss and Horizon
Capital – for their financial support and assistance.
Special thanks to Crowe Mikhailenko for their active and direct
participation in the preparation of this report.
5

FOREWORD
ANDRIY KOLODIUK
UVCA Chairman
of the Supervisory Board
Over the past decade, the Ukrainian investment market has
demonstrated resilience and ability to adapt to global
challenges. Despite economic and geopolitical difficulties,
Ukraine remains a promising environment for investment,
especially in innovative industries, agribusiness, and energy.
Since 2014, when the market suffered significant losses after
Russia's invasion, the Ukrainian investment sector has gone
through a difficult but dynamic path of development. Over
the past 10 years, more than $9 billion in investments have
been attracted. About 300 international and Ukrainian funds
invested in companies, which indicates a high level of
confidence in the Ukrainian market. A notable achievement
was the emergence of 10 unicorns with international
capitalization, which emphasizes the competitiveness of
Ukrainian tech companies.
The market also demonstrates high liquidity, especially in the
technology sector, where exits occur due to the global
integration of Ukrainian companies. These companies have
access to the international market, which provides them with
the ability to exit investments.
The Ukrainian PE and VC market is already showing active
dynamics: about 30 funds are currently attracting new
capital worth over $4 billion, with a strong pipeline of
investment projects. This process testifies to the growing
confidence in the Ukrainian market and the willingness of
international and local investors to participate in its recovery.
Private investors continue to actively support Ukrainian
entrepreneurs and SMEs. A key catalyst for investment
development is the $300 million Ukrainian Fund of Funds,
which intends to become a driver and market builder of the
Ukrainian investment ecosystem.
However, private capital alone is not enough for sustainable
development. It is essential that international financial
institutions (IFIs) and development funds (DFIs) join direct
investment by investing in local funds and the Fund of Funds.
This is crucial for creating partnerships that will support and
develop Ukrainian business during the war and will become
a tool for the development of Ukraine's economy.
Ukrainian funds, with local teams and a deep understanding
of the market, are demonstrating strength and resilience even
in difficult conditions. Today, the primary goal is to support
them in attracting new funding to strengthen the ecosystem
and ensure its further growth.
It's time to join forces of private and international capital to
invest in reconstruction, innovation and in Ukrainian
entrepreneurs who shape the country's future even in the most
difficult times and are a source of economic resilience and
development.
6

FOREWORD
Since 2014, Ukraine has undergone significant transformations
that have shaped its investment landscape. Despite political
instability and economic fluctuations, and the ongoing war, the
Ukrainian market has demonstrated resilience and
adaptability, paving the way for promising investment
opportunities and exciting exits.
Key features
Growth of the IT Sector: The IT industry became a cornerstone
of Ukraine's economy, attracting substantial foreign investment.
This growth was driven by highly skilled and ambitious teams,
as well as competitive prices, which made Ukraine a center of
technological innovation.
Increased Foreign Investment: Over the past decade, there has
been a steady inflow of foreign capital into Ukraine, in sectors
such as agriculture, energy, and new technologies. This trend
highlights the country's potential as an investment destination.
Development of the local VC ecosystem: Increased number of
new VC funds, accelerators, and incubators has provided
critical support to Ukrainian startups. This process has played a
key role in promoting innovation and strengthening the
entrepreneurial spirit.
The war, started in 2014, has undoubtedly affected the
investment climate. However, it has also opened up new
niches, such as defense technologies, which are attracting the
attention of both local and international investors. Looking
ahead, the Ukrainian PE and VC market is poised for growth,
driven by several key factors:
Focus on Resilience and Innovation: Traditional sectors like
agriculture, energy, real estate, infrastructure, logistics, as well
as innovative sectors like fintech, blockchain, deep tech and
defense tech, are expected to thrive, demonstrating resilience
and adaptability, and tend to achieve impressive results in
global markets.
Integration with Global Markets: Ukrainian startups are
increasingly targeting international clients, enhancing their
appeal to foreign investors and facilitating greater integration
with global markets.
Supportive ecosystem: Initiatives from organizations like ours
(UVCA) create a more supportive environment for investors
and entrepreneurs and allow them to build a foundation for
more stable collaboration. This will be crucial for attracting
capital and stimulating growth.
Opportunities in Reconstruction: The post-war reconstruction
phase presents unique investment opportunities, particularly in
infrastructure, energy, and housing.
The Ukrainian PE and VC market has shown remarkable
resilience over the past decade, overcoming challenges and
leveraging opportunities to drive growth. As the country
continues to rebuild and innovate, it offers a compelling
investment landscape for both local and international players.
Given the above-mentioned opportunities, Ukraine is well
positioned to become a leading investment destination.
DMYTRO KUZMENKO
UVCA CEO
7

GENERAL PARTNER
Where talanted people
are in good company
TARAS DUMYCH
Partner,Ukraine
taras.dumych@wolftheiss.com
+38 044 3 777 500
Wolf Theiss Kyiv
5A/10 Ihorivska St., 04070 Kyiv
+38 044 377 75 00
kyiv@wolftheiss.com
Learn more
about us
wolftheiss.com
“It has been our privilege to be one of the founding members of the Ukrainian
Venture Capital & Private Equity Association and to support VC and PE ﬁrms
investing in Ukraine. In our work with these investors, we draw on the
experience we have gained from working with them across Central and
Eastern Europe. This allows us to incorporate best practices from more
advanced markets while prioritizing the desired business outcomes for
investors. We also focus on improving the investment framework in Ukraine
by developing and advocating for necessary legislative and regulatory
reforms. By combining our legal practice with advocacy efforts, we
effectively help our international and Ukrainian clients achieve their business
goals.”
Taras Dumych
8

Consistent ?
Guilty.
results
Ukraine has long been a focus for private
equity and venture capital investors. Prior
to 2014, we assisted private equity investors
in sectors such as real estate, agriculture,
ﬁnance, food processing, and logistics. Over
the past decade, we have also served as legal
counsel for venture capital investments in the
rapidly growing Ukrainian tech and IT sectors.
The Ukrainian legal framework is
well-equipped to support cross-border
VC and PE investments. Although many
investments are made in foreign jurisdictions
such as the EU and the US, a substantial portion
of value is generated in Ukraine, making its
laws essential. VC and PE investors should pay
close attention to corporate, employment,
IP, and regulatory laws, along with exchange
control regulations, which are subject to frequent
changes.
Wolf Theiss, in partnership with UVCA,
has worked to enhance Ukrainian laws
and regulations. Key achievements include
streamlining foreign investment registration
and strengthening Bilateral Investment
Treaties, as well as enabling debt- to-equity
conversions in limited liability companies.
We are currently developing a bill to introduce
additional capital into Ukrainian corporate
law, allowing VC ﬁrms to invest in Ukraine
similarly to Delaware or California.
Over the past decade, we have assisted the following VC and PE investors in successfully executing their investments in Ukraine and Ukraine-related
international ventures:
9

The past decade has tested Ukraine like never before. Social and economic
crises, political transformations, and global pandemics have continually
challenged the resilience of businesses, society, and the state. Yet through
these headwinds, we’ve not only endured – we’ve adapted, becoming
more agile, innovative, and willing to make bold decisions.
In recent years, the world has seen proof that Ukrainian entrepreneurs –
from major corporations to small businesses – can identify growth
opportunities even amid war. They embrace new technologies, pivot
operations, enter international markets, and attract global capital.
As a leading investment firm in Central and Eastern Europe with over $1.6
billion in assets under management, Horizon Capital has been channeling
investments into Ukraine since 2006. We’ve played a pivotal role in the
country’s emergence as a regional leader in sectors such as IT,
manufacturing, and agri-food. We’ve seen firsthand the extraordinary
potential of Ukrainian businesses and remain deeply committed to helping
shape the country’s economic future.
In February 2024, our latest Ukraine-focused vehicle, Horizon Capital
Growth Fund IV (HCGF IV), closed at $350 million—surpassing its original
$250 million target and becoming the largest fund raised since the full-scale
invasion. The fund provides growth capital to visionary entrepreneurs
leading fast-growing, primarily tech and export-oriented businesses, as
well as domestic market champions in Ukraine and Moldova. With more
than 80 companies in the pipeline, HCGF IV has already invested in five —
including Preply, GoIT, and Viseven — all focused on expanding R&D
platforms in Ukraine and scaling their global operations. Our fundraising
journey stands as a powerful signal of investor confidence in Ukraine’s
future and a testament to the country’s resilience and unwavering
commitment to its recovery and renewal.
The momentum was further reinforced when Horizon Capital supported a
landmark $1.5 billion transaction involving NJJ Holding, the family office of
French investor Xavier Niel, acquiring fixed-line telecom provider
Datagroup-Volia and mobile operator Lifecell. This deal marked the first
major strategic investment in Ukraine since the start of the war – a milestone
Forbes Ukraine called “the M&A deal of the decade.”
The report you are holding provides a comprehensive review of the past ten
years, highlighting the key milestones, achievements, and challenges that
have shaped Ukraine’s investment landscape. But this research is not only
retrospective — it is also a valuable guide to emerging trends, helping
businesses, investors, and analysts navigate the opportunities ahead.
Looking forward, we firmly believe foreign investment will be the engine of
Ukraine’s recovery and long-term growth. The opportunity is vast: a thriving
IT sector with over 300,000 tech professionals; natural resources valued at
$26 trillion, rivaling those of Australia and Canada; and
reconstruction-related investment opportunities estimated at $1 trillion – the
largest in Europe since World War II.
At Horizon Capital, we’ll continue to play an active role in Ukraine’s future
— as a strong, innovative, and investment-friendly economy on the global
stage. We’re confident the coming decade will bring even greater
opportunities, and that Ukrainian entrepreneurs will continue to adapt,
grow, and attract global capital — no matter the challenges ahead.
We are grateful to the UVCA team for championing this important initiative
and for their continued work in advancing Ukraine’s investment potential.
11

EXECUTIVE PARTNER
DMYTRO MIKHAILENKO
Managing Partner
CROWE MIKHAILENKO
For almost 10 years, the Crowe Mikhailenko Group of
Companies has been providing professional support to
representatives of Ukrainian private business, mainly small
and medium-sized businesses, helping to solve their requests
and needs, and taking on a certain educational and
mentoring role of preparing entrepreneurs for effective and
profitable business activities with international partners,
financial institutions, investors. Together with our clients, we
shape modern standards of economic activity in accordance
with the best international practices and demanding
standards of the international network of Crowe Global.
Clearly aware that business development requires resources,
investments and responsibility for the consequences of their
decisions, we always support our clients on the way to new
markets and effective growth. When Private Equity and
Venture Capital investors study potential targets for placing
investments, Crowe Mikhailenko is one of those companies
that will provide professional comprehensive support for
such transactions, such as a careful guide to guide the
investor through most of the "thresholds and quagmires" of
imperfect legislation, fastidious and impartial due dill (legal,
tax, financial, market), business plan assessment and
feasibility study of an investment project. The experience of
the team members who supported M&A, IPO transactions,
attracting syndicated bank loans, creating a multi-family
office is relevant and effective for creating a "bridge" of
mutual understanding and partnership between Ukrainian
companies and foreign investors.
Support of clients from all sectors of the real economy,
banking and financial sector, real estate, creative industry
and virtual assets, defense and public sector, effective
cooperation with the legislative and executive branches of
government in Ukraine is our daily work as a consulting
company.
I sincerely believe that the coming years will be both a test
and a huge opportunity for the Ukrainian economy: the
conclusion of investment agreements, the formation of a
public capital market, the integration of Ukrainian business
into the European and world economy. The ingenuity, will,
and invincibility of Ukrainian entrepreneurs, combined with
international investments, present a real chance to create a
new economic “miracle,” I believe in it. We are constantly
developing the competencies and expertise of the Crowe
Mikhailenko team, adopting new practices and joining the
most effective business communities and associations, such
as UVCA, so that the words “Invest in Ukraine” are filled with
real agreements, contracts, and new joint ventures and help
build a free, economically strong, and independent Ukraine.
Contact Crowe Mikhailenko for comprehensive support for
private and venture investors in the projects of the UVCA
“Invest in Ukraine” program: investoffice@crowe.com.ua
12

EXECUTIVE PARTNER
Diligent Capital Partners is a mid-market private equity firm focused on
investing in the development of the agribusiness infrastructure in Ukraine
and the wider Black Sea Region. Its aim is to bring more international
private sector financing into the country and region, finding strong
opportunities amidst uncertainty. DCP began active operations in 2017,
successfully raising funds from both public and private sources to invest in
companies in the agribusiness sector with the potential to expand and move
up the value curve. Since then, DCP has expanded its bench of investment
professionals bringing in, among others, Gilles Mettetal who ran the $7
billion global agribusiness debt and equity portfolio at EBRD, alongside a
team of analysts and transaction execution specialists supported by a back
office comprised of legal, compliance and ESG experts.
DCP manages a private equity portfolio which includes Ukraine’s largest
animal feed and premixes producer, leading port transhipment and
oilseeds crusher and educational technology company Preply, a global
leader in its field, with further promising investments in Ukraine, Moldova
and the region in the pipeline. Today, Ukraine’s agricultural output of 67
million tonnes is nearly back to pre-war levels, having increased fivefold
since 2000. However, despite its proven resilience, which is all the more
impressive given it is one of the least subsidized in the world, to really
achieve its potential, targeted capital investment is needed to recapitalize
Ukrainian agribusinesses, upgrade the Black Sea Region’s food processing
infrastructure & modernize regional logistics to unlock growth. DCP is an
active and grateful member of UVCA, represented on its Board of Directors
over the years by its senior investment professionals, including Maria
Mikhailova, Principal (2022), Dan Yakub, COO (2023), and Oleg
Sirenko, Partner (2025).
13

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Key Results:
Total Investment Volume
(Estimated 2014–2024):
Number of Deals
(2014–2024):
$8.8-9.2
billion
Approximately
Note: This is an estimate, as complete data for
all years and all deal types was not available.
The provided data showed a peak in 2021 of
around $2.7 billion, with significant declines in
subsequent years. Averaging and
extrapolating give this reasonable, though
likely conservative, estimate.
1400 deals
(M&A, VC, PE, and privatizations)
Over
Note: This number is based on the deals listed
in the provided files and is likely an undercount
due to unreported transactions.
Deal
Structure
~60-70%
VC
~10-15%
PE
~20-30%
M&A
~10-15%
Other (privatization, asset sales,
debt financing)
John Patton, Head of EMEA & Asia at Argentem
Creek Partners
Start preparing to invest today, as tomorrow the best opportunities
will be gone
Oleksandr Soroka, Serial entrepreneur and investor,
Managing Partner at Network VC
Invest in Defense Tech. It’s a strategic sector—and it’s one that can
help Ukraine win and rebuild.
Roman Nikitov, Co-Head of ICU Ventures
My message to the audience is the same one I remind myself of
daily: Let’s keep doing what we do—and do it to the best of our
abilities. Let’s never lose hope or belief in ourselves. Life moves
forward, and we will endure whatever comes next. We’ve proven
ourselves to be a resilient nation, and that strength comes from
believing in a better future.
14

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Main Conclusions
Main Conclusions (AVentures, Capital Times, InVenture, Forbes,
AIN, other sources):
• Technology Leads: The technology sector (IT, software, e-commerce,
fintech) consistently accounts for the largest share of investment activity
(estimated at around 60%).
• Impact of the War: The full-scale Russian invasion in 2022 significantly
impacted the market, but it has shown resilience.
• Changing Investor Priorities: There has been a shift towards
investments in Military Tech, Green Energy, agriculture, and
infrastructure.
• Domestic Investors: Ukrainian FPGs, private investors, and funds have
become key players, especially in M&A.
• International Support: IFIs (EBRD, IFC) play an important role in
financing Ukrainian businesses.
• Privatization: Sales of state-owned assets stimulate investment.
• Adaptation: Ukrainian companies are adapting to the war by
reorienting to exports, finding new markets, and partnerships.
Main Conclusions (KPMG Data):
• Dominance of M&A: KPMG focuses exclusively on M&A transactions,
providing a different perspective on the market.
• Domestic Market: Most M&A transactions (by number) are between
Ukrainian companies.
• Importance of Foreign Investment: Inbound deals (foreign investment in
Ukraine) constitute a larger part of the M&A market by value.
• Key Sectors: TMT, agriculture, industry, and consumer goods are key
sectors M&A activity.
Overall Conclusion:
This research covers the period from 2014 to 2024. The Ukrainian investment market has gone through significant challenges but has demonstrated
resilience and adaptability. The IT sector remains a key driver, but the war has shifted investor priorities, increasing interest in defense technologies,
energy, and infrastructure. International support and domestic investment play important roles in the recovery of the economy. All data highlights the
importance of M&A transactions in the domestic market, as well as the significant impact of foreign investment.
15

Macro overview: Following the shock of the
full-scale invasion, Ukraine’s economy has
demonstrated remarkable resilience and
adaptability, staging a strong rebound. As of
2024, key economic indicators have not only
recovered, but in many cases surpassed pre-war
levels.
• Despite the ongoing war and substantial challenges, Ukraine's macroeconomic environment
demonstrates significant resilience and adaptive capacity. The robust performance of agriculture
and IT sectors underscores the potential for sustained recovery. Fiscal discipline, strategic
monetary policy, and international support have collectively underpinned economic
stabilization, positioning Ukraine's economy for continued recovery into subsequent years.
• After facing a severe GDP contraction of 29% in 2022 due to Russia’s full-scale invasion,
Ukraine's economy gradually stabilized. By 2023, Ukraine experienced a modest recovery,
with GDP growing approximately 3.2%, driven largely by adaptive business strategies and
international financial aid. Ukrainian GDP continued recovery in 2024, reaching $152B with
7% YoY growth.
• Ukraine’s international reserves increased by 8% in 2024, reaching $43.8 billion, continuing
the upward trend since 2023 and reinforcing macroeconomic and financial stability. This
build-up was made possible by exceptional international support totaling $42 billion, alongside
the successful placement of FX-denominated domestic debt. These inflows enabled Ukraine to
meet its external debt obligations, conduct over $34 billion in foreign exchange interventions to
smooth exchange rate volatility and maintain confidence in the national currency despite
ongoing wartime pressures.
Despite the war, Ukrainian exports demonstrated significant resilience and recovery, rebounding to approximately USD 60 billion by 2024. Two
sectors, in particular, led this recovery: Agriculture: Agricultural exports recovered swiftly, reaching USD 32 billion by 2024. Ukrainian exporters
adapted logistical strategies, finding alternative transport routes to bypass disrupted traditional sea routes. The agriculture sector's resilience reaffirmed
Ukraine's pivotal role as a global grain supplier. Information Technology: IT exports continuously grew, reaching approximately USD 10 billion in
2024, driven by global demand for Ukrainian tech services, remote work capabilities, and minimal dependency on physical infrastructure.
16
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: MACROECONOMICS
UAH GDP (UAH trillion)
USD GDP ($B)
Total Export ($B)
Agri export ($B)
IT Export ($B)
2014
1.5
123
65
17
1.6
2021
5.5
200
68
28
7
2022
5.2
142
45
23
7.5
2024
5.7
152
60
32
10

From 2014 to 2024, Ukraine’s investment ecosystem lacked institutional LPs and saw limited interest from regional and global funds,
keeping Ukraine under-invested. Despite worsening conditions after 2022, many local teams remained active and are now raising
Ukraine-focused PE funds.
• Ukraine has signiﬁcantly fewer active fund managers relative to GDP
compared to regional benchmarks, primarily due to a lack of available
institutional capital for local PE players and limited presence of regional
and global funds.
• Since 2022, the situation has further deteriorated, as institutional LPs
have largely suspended new commitments to the Ukrainian market.
• Despite these headwinds, several robust Ukrainian teams are actively
raising private equity funds.
• Ukrainian PE funds pursue diversiﬁed strategies across multiple
industries, encompassing not only technology but also agriculture and
food processing, infrastructure, green energy, industrials, and other
sectors critical to Ukraine’s reconstruction and economic development
CEE average: 5 active PE fund managers per $100B of GDP
17
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: UKRAINE PE LANDSCAPE
9
Bulgaria
6
Czech R
5
Poland
5
Romania
4
Hungary
2
Ukraine
Institutionally backed private equity managers
with more than three completed deals /per unit of GDP
Examples of established PE teams

Building on decades of experience on the ground, local PE teams are leading Ukraine’s recovery. With strong track records, established
teams and sector-specific strategies, they are raising PE funds to meet the country’s urgent investment needs
18
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: UKRAINE PE LANDSCAPE
Fund manager
Key deals
in 2014-2024
Short description
and key LPs
Funds in the
fundraising stage
Industry/sector
focus
Diligent Capital Partners
•Allseeds
•Yednist Group
•Preply
Experienced team with a
30-year track record in
Ukraine, having completed
25+ PE transactions, backed
by FMO and prominent
European family offices
DCP Ukraine Regional Food
Security and Recovery Fund:
$200 mln
Agribusiness and food
processing; technology
Horizon Capital
•Intellias
•Ajax Systems
•Creatio
•Aurora
Leading PE firm with 30+
years of experience in
Ukraine, $1.6B AUM, $3B+
capital mobilized, backed by
global institutional investors
Horizon Capital Catalyst
Fund: $350M
Digital infrastructure, energy,
construction materials, and
other industrial sectors.
Dragon Capital
•Caravan Outlet Mall
•M10 Lviv Industrial Park
•UnexBank
•Treeum
Investment firm, which
deployed over $1.2B across
private equity and real estate
since 2001, partnering with
global investors, IFIs, and
DFIs
Amber Dragon Ukraine
Infrastructure Fund I: $400M
Rebuild Ukraine Fund:
$200-250M
Energy, Transport and Digital
Infrastructure
SD Capital
•TIS Container Terminal
•P&O Maritime Ukraine
Private equity firm with 9+
years of experience in
Ukraine
Green Recovery Fund:
$175M
Renewable energy, logistics
infrastructure
United Heritage
Several major transactions
(undisclosed)
Asset management team
investing in Ukraine and
across a border CEE region
United Heritage fund:
$550M-600M
Agriculture, logistics,
infrastructure, energy,
construction, development

19
PARTICULAR ATTENTION
The Ukrainian Venture Capital and Private Equity Association (UVCA) officially launched the Ukrainian Fund of Funds (FoF) in 2024. This long-awaited
initiative is now actively fundraising from investors interested in Ukraine’s venture capital (VC) and private equity (PE) ecosystem. The fund aims for an
initial size of $300 million and has appointed Ertan Can, an experienced fund manager based in Luxembourg, to lead its operations.
Currently, at least 28 Ukraine-focused venture funds and 12 private equity funds are actively raising capital and are the primary targets for the FoF.
Among them are UVCA members such as AVentures Capital, Acrobator VC, Angel One Fund, Almaz Capital, Capital Times, Flyer One Ventures, Hype
Ventures, ICU Ventures, Network VC, One Way Ventures, SID Venture Partners, 1991 Ventures, 3X Capital, Argentem Creek Partners, Concorde
Capital, Diligent Capital Partners, Dragon Capital, Green Recovery Fund, United Heritage, umgi, others. These funds invest in technology-driven,
growth-oriented businesses at early and late stages. Together, they represent over $4 billion in demand for investment.
The Fund of Funds is set to become a key market-building player, strengthening Ukraine’s private equity and investment landscape. It is currently in
negotiations with international financial institutions (IFIs) and development finance institutions (DFIs) as well as other investors seeking support and
investment to back Ukrainian entrepreneurs and SMEs through experienced Ukraine-focused fund managers.
For any questions regarding the Ukrainian Fund of Funds, please do not hesitate to reach out to: Andrey.Kolodyuk@uvca.eu
Ukrainian Fund of Funds

SECTION 1: INVESTMENT MARKET DYNAMICS
1.1. Investment Dynamics Over the Years
1.1.1 General Analysis. The Ukrainian investment market during
2014-2024 experienced significant fluctuations caused by both internal
and external factors. The period can be roughly divided into several
stages:
• 2014-2015: Sharp Decline: The beginning of Russian aggression, the
annexation of Crimea, and the war in Donbas led to a significant
decrease in investment activity. Investors were extremely cautious, and
many deals were frozen or canceled.
• 2016-2019: Gradual Recovery: A slow recovery of the investment
climate began, with growing interest in IT, e-commerce, and the
agricultural sector. Reforms aimed at improving the business environment
were implemented.
• 2020: Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic: The COVID-19 pandemic
led to another decline, but the IT sector and some other industries showed
resilience.
• 2021: Peak Investment Activity: This year was a record year for
investment volume, especially due to large deals in IT, energy, and
agriculture.
• 2022: Full-Scale Invasion: A sharp decline in investment due to
Russia's full-scale invasion. A shift in investor priorities, a focus on defense
tech, forced deals.
• 2023-2024: Adaptation and Recovery: The market shows signs of
adaptation, the number of deals is increasing, but the average deal size
is smaller. “Deal of the decade“ was closed with a total investment of
over $1 billion. The Defense Tech sector deals play a key role in venture
capital deals.
Creek Partners
Argentem Creek Partners (ACP) has invested more than $600 million in Ukrainian
logistics, agriculture, metals and mining. Some projects proved to be extremely
challenging while at the same time providing valuable experience and even better
understanding of local risks. Overall ACP has been enjoying double-digit returns
throughout these years and we’re planning further expansion in Ukraine.
20

Investment Volume
($ million) (Estimate)
Year Number of Deals
(Estimate)
Key Events
Beginning of Russian aggression, annexation of Crimea, war in Donbas
Continued decline, extreme investor caution
Beginning of slow recovery, growing interest in IT, e-commerce
Continued growth, investments in IT outsourcing, product companies
Further growth, emergence of the ﬁrst "unicorns"
Growth of interest in the agricultural sector and infrastructure, dominance of domestic M&A deals (KPMG)
Decline due to the COVID-19 pandemic, but continued activity in IT
Peak investment activity, large deals in IT, energy, agriculture
Sharp decline due to the full-scale invasion, focus on defense tech, forced deals
Gradual recovery, increase in the number of deals, but smaller checks
Continued recovery of investment market
Closed "deal of the decade" with a total investment of $1Bn +
Defence Tech sector deals play key role in venture capital deals
86-88
66-69
78-87
55-89
~1
15
~1
1
1
~188
~216
~199
~91
~174
~50-100
~132-146
~100
~200-265
~300-337
~510-674
~534-571
2,700
~880
1,700
1,800+
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
Table 1.1.1. Dynamics of the Ukrainian Investment Market (2014-2024) (Combined Data)
21

$75M $132M $100M
$200-
265M
$300M
$510-
674M $534-
571M
$2,700M
$300-
337M
$880M
$1,700M
$1,800M+
86+
66+
78+
55+
115 111
188
216
199
91
174
Investment Market Stages
Sharp Decline Gradual Recovery COVID-19 Peak Activity Invasion Adaptation and Recovery
2014-2015 2016-2019 2020 2021 2022 2023-2024
Key Market Events Timeline
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Beginning of Russian aggression,
annexation of Crimea, war in Donbas
Beginning of slow recovery,
growing interest in IT, e-commerce
First Ukrainian "unicorns"
COVID-19 pandemic impact,
resilience in IT sector
Peak investment activity,
large deals in IT, energy, agri
Full-scale invasion, focus on
defense tech, forced deals
"Deal of the decade" with
$1Bn+ total investment,
Defense Tech deals growth
Source: InVenture, Forbes, AIN, KPMG M Radar reports, and other open sources. Data from 2014-2024.
Note: Numbers are estimates. Some values shown as ranges due to incomplete data for certain years.
Creek Partners
I appreciate you covering this past decade, as it truly reﬂects the
decade of war for us Ukrainians—beginning in 2014 and
escalating dramatically in 2022. It’s been a turbulent period.
Yet, despite the challenges, Ukraine’s investment ecosystem
remains resilient. We continue to see adaptability among startups,
an even stronger focus on innovation, and growing international
investor interest, particularly in high-potential sectors like
renewable energy, defense tech, and AI.
Of course, access to capital remains a key challenge, and
rebuilding investor conﬁdence is something we must all work on
together.
22

1.2. Distribution by type of transactions
Table 1.2. Structure of M&A transactions according to KPMG data
Type of transaction
Internal (Domestic)
Inbound
Outbound
2013
31.2%
58.7%
10.1%
2014
36.1%
52.8%
1
1.1%
2015
43.8%
43.8%
12.5%
2016
36.4%
52.7%
10.9%
2017
23.9%
68.7%
7.5%
2018
30.9%
63.0%
6.2%
2019
39.5%
56.8%
3.7%
2020
62.3%
36.2%
1.5%
2021
n/a
n/a
n/a
2022
n/a
n/a
n/a
2023
51.0%
36.2%
12.8%
2024
53.1%
26.5%
20.4%
John Patton, Head of EMEA & Asia at Argentem Creek Partners
As challenging as the situation is right now, it still provides enormous opportunities for those who understand local realities, have real experience on the ground, and know how to
mitigate market-speciﬁc risks. Asset prices are currently attractive and backing companies that are well positioned to beneﬁt from Ukraine’s reconstruction is an attractive
opportunity within a relatively narrow window.
23

Internal (Domestic)
Ukrainian buyer, Ukrainian target
Inbound
Foreign buyer, Ukrainian target
Outbound
Ukrainian buyer, foreign target
Dominance of domestic transactions after 2020 Growth in outbound deals post-invasion Decline in foreign investment (inbound) since 2022
Source: KPMG M Radar reports, 2013-2024
Structure of M&A Transactions in Ukraine (2013-2024)
24

Year Company Investor(s)
Amount ($ million)
(valuation)
2016*
2017*
2018*
2019*
2019-2020
2021
2021
2022
2023
2024
Jooble
Petcube
Allset
Grammarly
Ciklum
Grammarly
GitLab (IPO)
AirSlate
Fintech Farm
Lifecell+DATA+Volia
Horizon Capital
Y Combinator, Almaz Capital, ICU Ventures,
AVentures Capital
Greycroft, Andreessen Horowitz, SMRK,
Inovo Venture Partners
General Catalyst, IVP, Spark Capital
Dragon Capital, Recognize Partners
Baillie Gifford, BlackRock
(IPO)
G Squared, UiPath Ventures
Nordstar
NJJ Holding
~5-10
~10
~8
90
undisclosed amount
200
801
51.5
32 ($100M+)
650
1.3 Key Driving Forces (Combined for Both Data Sets):
Table 1.3.1: Examples of investments in the IT&T sector (expanded)
Asterisk denotes years where data is supplemented from other sources and estimates for completeness.*
25

Key IT Sector Investments in Ukraine (2016-2024)
Table 1.3.1: Examples of investments in the IT sector
2016 2017 2018 2019 2021 2022 2023 2024
Key Investors
• Horizon Capital (Jooble)
• Y Combinator, AVentures (Petcube)
• Andreessen Horowitz (Allset)
• General Catalyst, IVP (Grammarly)
• NJJ Holding (Lifecell+DATA+Volia)
Investment
Jooble
$5.10M
Petcube
$10M
Allset
$9M
$90M
Grammarly
$200M
GitLab (IPO)
$801M
AirSlate
$51.5M
Fintech
Farm
$32M
Lifecell+DATA+Volia
$650M
Source: UVCA Analytical Report, 2025 (Circle size proportional to investment value)
• Dragon Capital (Ciklum)
2020
Ciklum
undisclosed
amount
Grammarly
Oleksandr Soroka, Serial entrepreneur and investor,
Managing Partner at Network VC
It’s already obvious that many American startups rely heavily on
Ukrainian back ofﬁces. CTOs, engineering teams, product
developers—Ukraine has become a key destination for talent. I’d
say nearly every seventh startup we speak to says: “Yes, we have
a team in Ukraine” or “Our development is based there.”
Ukraine has become a well-known and respected jurisdiction for
software product development.
26

International Support:
Table 1.3.2 Credit agreements with international ﬁnancial institutions
(expanded)
Year Company Creditor
Amount ($ million)
(equivalent)
2017*
2018*
2019*
2023
2024
2024
Nibulon
Astartа
Nibulon
Kernel
Ukrenergo
MHP
EBRD
EBRD
IFC
ING Bank, Rabobank, Black Sea Trade
and Development Bank
EBRD
EBRD, IFC, DFC
90
25
100
450
825
480
Added examples of agreements from other sources for illustration of a wider period.*
International Financial Support for Ukrainian Companies
Table 1.3.2: Credit agreements with international financial institutions (2017-2024)
0
100
200
300
400
500
Million
USD
2017 2018 2019 2023 2022 2024
Nibulon
$90M
Astarte
$25M
Nibulon
$100M
Kernel
$450M
Ukrenergo
$825M
MHP
$480M
Key Insights
• Total support: $1.98 billion
• EBRD is the largest contributor
• Energy sector received most funding
• Significant increase in 2023-2024
EBRD IFC / Mixed (EBRD, IFC, DFC) Commercial Banks (ING, Rabobank, BSTDB)
Source: UVCA Analytical Report, 2025
600
700
800
27

War and Economic Instability:
Table 1.3.3 Change in Investment Structure Due to War
Year 2014-2021
<1%
Military Tech
2022 2023 2024
>8% >8% >8%
Military Tech Investment Growth
Table 1.3.3: Sector structure change due to war
Full-scale invasion (Feb 2022)
0%
1%
5%
10%
2014-2021 2022 2023-2024
KURS orbital, BAVOVNA, Swarmer,
Himera Radios, Buntar Aerospace
Government Reforms and Privatization:
Table 1.3.4. Examples of Privatization Deals
Key Privatization Deals in Ukraine (2018-2024)
0
20
40
60
80
100
Million
USD
"Ocean"
$4.3M
"Bilshovyk"
$53M
"Electronmash"
$36M
Hotel "Dnipro"
$41M
Odesa
Champ.
$6.8M
UMCC titanium
$93M Hotel
"Ukraine"
$61M
2018 2021 2022 2023 2024
Key Insights
• Strategic asset privatization continued despite war
• Total sales exceeded $300M (2018-2024)
• Provided important budget revenue
• Peak volume in 2024 (UMCC titanium)
• Diverse asset types
• Consistent growth trend
Source: UVCA Analytical Report, 2025
Oleksandr Soroka, Serial entrepreneur and investor, Managing Partner at Network VC
Since the war began, Defense Tech has seen rapid growth. While this is a more specialized
sector, interest is high. Ukrainians are now world leaders in this area, with a unique advantage:
they can test and iterate products in real combat environments. This has led to the creation of
globally competitive—and in some cases, best-in-class—solutions, particularly in unmanned
systems and drone technologies.
28

1.4. Sectoral section
(according to
KPMG, 2013-2024):
Table 1.4.1 Distribution
of M&A by industry
28

1.5. Deal Structure Analysis
1.5.1 VC vs. PE:
Table 1.5.1 Investment Structure in Ukraine (Estimate)
1.5.2. Closed Deals:
(Common for both data sets) ~25% of deals have undisclosed ﬁnancial data.
VC
65%
M&A
25%
PE
7%
OTHER
3%
Venture Capital (VC) 65%
Private Equity (PE) 7%
Mergers & Acquisitions 25%
Other Investments 3%
Based on estimated data from 2014-2024. Venture Capital dominates
the investment landscape, followed by M&A activities. PE and other
investments represent smaller but significant portions of the market.
30

1.5.3 Investor/Buyer Geography:
Overview: During 2014-2024, there was a signiﬁcant presence of both domestic and foreign investors. Prior to 2022, the share of foreign investment was
higher, especially in large M&A deals and venture capital rounds. After the full-scale invasion, the activity of foreign investors decreased but did not
disappear completely.
Table 1.5.3.1: Geographical structure of investments (by number of transactions, estimate)
Investment Flow by Region (2014-2024)
By percentage of total transactions
Pre-war Period (2014-2021)
40%
22%
22%
16%
War Period (2022-2024)
55%
17%
17%
11%
Changes in Investment Geography
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
Ukraine USA EU Others
40%
55%
22%
17%
22%
17% 16%
11%
EU Investment Breakdown (2022-2024):
• Germany: 3-5% • Poland: 5-7% • Cyprus: 5-7%
• Other EU countries: 5-7%
Ukraine USA EU Others
Source: UVCA Analytical Report (2014-2024)
31

1.6. Trends:
Table 1.6.1 Trends in M&A transactions (Extended)
Trend Examples
VC Dominance (2018-2021)
Increased PE activity (2023-2024)
M&A in strategic sectors (2021-2024)
Defense Tech (2022-2024)
FoodTech and AgriTech (2021-2024)
Privatization and State Asset Sales
(2016-2024)
Grammarly, GitLab, People.ai, Restream, Preply
Dragon Capital, Horizon Capital, Acquisition of Assets in Bankruptcy/Restructuring
NJJ Capital's acquisition of lifecell and Datagroup-Volia, Metinvest's acquisition of Dnipro Coke and Chemical Plant, Dragon Capital's investments in M10
Industrial Park, Truskavetska (mineral water producer), PowerOne (energy), ﬁnancial sector and participation in AEROC privatization auction
Investments in KURS orbital, Skyeton, Bavovna, Swarmer, Himera Radios, Buntar Aerospace, Osavul
Investments in KAU, Choice QR, Allset, Foodex24, MHP, Kernel, Continental Farmers Group, Greenleaf (Dragon Capital); Active acquisition of elevators in 2024
UMCC Titanium, Hotel “Ukraine”, “AEROC”, "Bolshevik", "Electronmash", hotel "Dnipro", distilleries, ports
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Privatization and State Asset Sales (2016-2024)
VC Dominance (2018-2021)
M&A in strategic sectors (2021-2024)
FoodTech and AgriTech (2021-2024)
Defense Tech (2022-2024)
Increased PE activity
(2023-2024)
32

SECTION 2: SECTORAL AND GEOGRAPHICAL ANALYSIS
Dominant Sectors (2014-2021):
• IT and Telecommunications: Traditionally the largest recipient of
investments, especially venture capital. Growth was driven by
outsourcing, product companies, fintech, and e-commerce.
• Agriculture: Remained a strategically important sector, attracting
investments in agricultural holdings, infrastructure (elevators, terminals),
and agritech.
• Construction and Real Estate: Investments in commercial (offices,
shopping centers, warehouses) and residential real estate, especially in
Kyiv and major cities.
• Energy: Investments in renewable energy (solar and wind power
plants), as well as in traditional energy (gas production, electricity
distribution companies).
Changes after 2022 (full-scale invasion):
• Growth of Military Tech: A sharp increase in investments in defense
technologies (drones, communication systems, cybersecurity, troop
management software, etc.).
• Increased focus on energy security: Growth in investments in
renewable energy, energy storage systems, and gas production.
• Resilience of the agricultural sector: Agriculture continued to attract
investment, but with a focus on logistics, processing, and exports.
• Decreased activity in other sectors: Investments in real estate, retail,
and other non-critical sectors declined.
2.1. Sectoral Analysis
2.1.1. General Overview
Over the period 2014-2024, the Ukrainian investment market exhibited significant sectoral dynamics, influenced by both internal and external factors.
33

Agriculture and food processing remain a cornerstone of Ukraine’s economy, contributing 15% of employment and 41% of total exports.
Beyond providing essential hard currency to support macroeconomic stability, the sector plays a pivotal role in global food security—a role
that is becoming even more critical as climate change threatens agricultural output in other parts of the world.
• Ukraine’s fertile chornozem, extensive arable land, and favorable climate
provide a strong natural foundation for efficient, large-scale, and high-yield
agricultural production. These geographic advantages allow Ukraine to
consistently produce substantial surpluses of grains, oilseeds, and other
commodities, underpinning its role as a critical player in global food security.
• The agri sector is central to the Ukraine’s economy, accounting for 10% of GDP
and nearly 15% of employment. Rural development in Ukraine is closely linked to
that of agriculture, which remains the main income source for people in rural
areas.
• In 2014-2022 the sector was demonstrating stable growth, and after 2022,
despite the immense challenges posed by Russia’s invasion — including disrupted
planting and harvesting seasons, damaged infrastructure, and higher
operational risks — Ukraine’s agricultural sector has demonstrated remarkable
resilience.
• By 2024, export volumes have exceeded pre-war levels, reaching 41% of
Ukraine’s total exports, representing a fivefold increase from its share in 2001.
This rebound was made possible by the rapid development of alternative
logistical corridors through neighboring countries and stronger ties with regional
partners that helped maintain critical trade flows even amid adversity.
• To fully capitalize on rising global demand, substantial investment is urgently
needed to rebuild and expand Ukraine’s agri-food supply chain. Several private
equity players (including Diligent Capital Partners) have centered their strategies
around the agri & food sector to help channel capital into this critical industry.
34
Agriculture in GDP (%)
Agriculture share
in employment (%)
Agri Food Exports
(% of total Exports)
Ukraine
10.6
14.7
40.6
France
1.6
2.7
9.1
EU
1.6
3.8
8.9
11
2002
21
2010
35
2014
61
2021
58
2022
76
2024
Ukraine agricultural export, in M t Ukraine’s ranking
in global export
by commodity
(2022/23)
Corn, Rapeseed
Sunflower Oil & Meal
Barley, Rye
Wheat, Soybean
Poultry, Rapeseed
& Soybean Oil
#1
#2
#3
#4
#5

Sector 2014-2021 (%)
IT and Telecommunications
Agriculture
Construction and Real Estate
Energy (incl. renewable)
Food Industry
Financial Activities
Military Tech
Other
40-50
15-20
10-15
5-10
5-10
5-10
<1
5-10
2014-2021 (%)
50-60
10-15
10-15
10-15
5-10
5-10
>8
5-10
Table 2.1.1: Distribution of Investments by Sector
(by number of deals, estimate, different
sources)
2.1.2. Sectoral Analysis (KPMG Data, 2013-2024)
General Overview: According to KPMG's "M&A Radar" reports, the
following sectors demonstrated the highest activity in the M&A market in
Ukraine (by deal value):
• Consumer Goods and Retail (C&M)
• Agriculture (Agri)
• Metallurgy and Mining (M&M)
• Innovation and Technology (I&T)
• Energy and Utilities (P&U)
• Real Estate and Construction (RE&C)
• Transport and Infrastructure (T&I)
The greatest achievement of the last decade is the emergence of seven to eight
unicorns—despite all the adversity.
Second, the startup ecosystem has matured signiﬁcantly and now represents about
5–6% of Ukraine’s GDP and nearly 40% of the country’s total services exports.
Third, while investment in Ukrainian startups declined from nearly $1 billion pre-war, it
rebounded to about $500 million in 2024—roughly the level we saw in 2020. That’s a
strong recovery under the circumstances.
On the downside, beyond the war itself, we continue to face regulatory uncertainty, a
lack of legal clarity, and insufﬁcient access to capital. These structural issues still limit
the ecosystem's full potential.
35

Table 2.1.2.: Distribution of M&A Deals by Sector (by value, 2014-2024) - KPMG Data
I&T - Inovation & Technology M&M - Metallurgy & Mining Agri - Agriculture C&M - Consumer Goods & Media B&I - Banking & Insurance
O&G - Oil & Gas P&U - Energy & Utilities RE&C - Real Estate & Construction T&I - Transport & Infrastructure Inds - Industrial Goods
Source: KPMG M&A Radar Ukraine (2014-2024), UVCA, InVenture and other sources
Top-5 Sectors (2014-2024)
M - $3696M (26%)
I - $2734M (19%)
C - $1885M (13%)
Agri - $1422M (10%)
RE - $983M
Total M&A Deal Volume Dynamics (2014-2024, $ million)
Trends According to KPMG Data (2014-2024):
• Instability: The volume and number of M&A deals
fluctuated significantly from year to year, indicating the
instability of the investment climate.
• Sector Diversity: Investments were distributed across
different sectors, but with certain leaders in specific years
(e.g., metallurgy in 2014, agriculture in 2017, consumer
goods in 2019).
• Importance of the Domestic Market: Most M&A deals
were domestic, emphasizing the role of Ukrainian
companies in consolidating and developing the market.
36

2.1.3. Examples of Deals by Sector (2014-2024):
IT and Telecommunications:
• NJJ Capital acquisition of Lifecell ($525M) and Datagroup −Volia
($120M-200M) in 2024.
• Rentberry (PropTech): raised $90M in 2024, valuation of $1Bn
• Grammarly: raised over $200 million in 2021, valuation of $13Bn.
• GitLab: successful IPO in 2021, raised at $800M, valuation of $8Bn.
• Creatio: raising $200M in 2024 (raised at 1.2B valuation)
Agriculture:
• LNZ Group: acquisition of Innovation Center for Processing of Oilseeds
and Grains
• Kernel Holding: acquisition of assets in sunflower oil processing and
logistics.
• A.G.R. Group: acquisition of agricultural companies.
• Continental Farmers Group: acquisition of an agricultural holding and
an elevator.
• SALIC: acquisition of a stake in MHP.
Construction and Real Estate:
• Dragon Capital: acquisition of business centers, shopping centers,
warehouse complexes, and development of M10 Industrial Park.
• UDP: sale of a stake in an elite residential complex.
• Acquisition of real estate objects through privatization and the sale of
pledged assets.
• Construction of new logistics complexes (e.g., Alterra Group).
Energy:
• DTEK: investments in renewable energy, acquisition of regional power
distribution companies.
• Nebras Power: acquisition of solar power plants.
• OKKO Group: plans for wind farm construction, acquisition of a stake
in a wind farm project.
• Dragon Capital: investment in gas peaker and battery storage systems
• Investments in gas production (Ukrnafta, Naftogaz).
Food Industry:
• Privatization of distilleries.
• Investments in agricultural product processing (sugar, oil, flour).
• Acquisition of food producers (e.g., "Lubnym'yaso" by MHP).
• Dragon Capital: investments in Truskavetska (mineral water producer)
and Greenleaf (healthy sweeteners producer)
Military technologies:
• KURS orbital: raised $4.0M
• BAVOVNA: raised $2.7M
• Swarmer: raised $2.7M
• Himera Radios: raised $0.52M
• Buntar Aerospace: raised $1M
Financial Activities:
• Acquisition/sale of banks (Idea Bank for $34M, Unex Bank).
• Investments in fintech established players (Treeum) and startups
(Finmap, Fintech Farm raising $32M).
• Mergers and acquisitions of insurance companies.
37

2.2. Geographical Analysis
2.2.1. Domestic Investments:
Main Regions:
• Kyiv and the Kyiv Region: Remain the center of investment activity,
especially for IT companies, financial institutions, and development
projects.
• Lviv and Western Ukraine: Growing interest due to business relocation,
development of the IT cluster, and proximity to the EU border.
• Dnipro, Odessa, Kharkiv: Traditionally important industrial and
agricultural centers, but activity has decreased due to the war (especially
in Kharkiv).
• Other Regions: Investments in the agricultural sector, processing
industry, and renewable energy are distributed throughout Ukraine,
depending on the region's specialization.
Trends:
• Shift to the West: Due to the war, there is a shift in investment activity to
the western regions of Ukraine.
• Development of Regional Centers: Growing interest in investments in
regional centers (Lviv, Ivano-Frankivsk, Vinnytsia, Ternopil).
2.2.2. Foreign Investments:
Main Investor Countries:
• USA: Traditionally the largest investor, especially in the IT sector
(venture capital funds, technology companies).
• EU Countries: Germany, Poland, the Netherlands, Czech Republic,
France, Cyprus (often associated with Ukrainian capital).
• Great Britain: Investments in IT, finance, real estate.
• Others: Israel, Canada, Turkey, Asian countries, Saudi Arabia.
Trends:
• Decreased Activity: After the start of the full-scale war, the activity of
foreign investors decreased, but interest remains.
• Focus on Resilient Sectors: Foreign investors pay more attention to
sectors that are less vulnerable to war risks (IT, agriculture, energy).
• Support through IFIs: International financial organizations (EBRD, IFC)
play an important role in supporting the Ukrainian economy.
38

2.3. Success Stories
Table 2.3.1 Examples of Success Stories:
Ukrainian Companies Success Stories by Sector
Industry Distribution and Success Metrics
Information Technology (IT)
Grammarly
Sector: Artificial Intelligence
Valuation: $13 billion
GitLab
Sector: DevOps
Valuation: $8 billion
Creatio
Sector: Low-code/No-code
Valuation: $1.2 billion
People.ai and Preply
Sectors: Sales and Marketing, EdTech
Investments: $100M and $70M
E-commerce
Rozetka
Description: Largest online retailer in Ukraine
Agriculture and Food
MHP
Description: Leader in chicken production
Kernel
Description: Largest sunflower oil producer
Telecommunications
Datagroup-Volia
Description: Major fixed-line and pay-TV operator
Conclusion:
The sectoral structure of investments confirms the importance of the IT sector and the
agricultural sector for the Ukrainian economy. With the onset of the full-scale invasion,
interest in Military Tech and the energy sector has grown significantly.
Geographically, investment activity is concentrated in Kyiv and the western regions. Foreign
investment comes mainly from the USA and EU countries; however, the war has affected the
structure and volume of investment.
39

SECTION 3: THE IMPACT OF WAR
3.2.1. Overview of the War's Impact
General Trends:
• Sharp Investment Decline in 2022: Russia's full-scale invasion on February 24, 2022, had a profoundly negative and shocking impact on Ukraine's
investment climate. Many deals that were in preparation or negotiation stages were postponed, suspended, or canceled. Both domestic and foreign
investors adopted a wait-and-see approach, assessing the risks and consequences of the war.
• Shift in Investor Priorities: The war drastically altered investor priorities. There was a surge of interest in sectors related to:
▫ Defense and Security (Military Tech): Development of drones, communication systems, cybersecurity, troop management software, electronic
warfare/electronic intelligence systems, etc. Examples: Investments in Swarmer, BAVOVNA, Himera Radios, Buntar Aerospace.
▫ Energy Independence: Investments in renewable energy sources (solar and wind power plants), energy storage systems, gas production, and
energy efﬁciency. Examples: DTEK projects, OKKO Group's interest in wind power, Dragon Capital's investments in gas peaker and battery storage
systems.
▫ Resilience and Survival: Sectors providing basic needs (food, medicine, logistics) became more attractive as they demonstrated greater resilience
to crisis phenomena. Examples: Investments in agricultural holdings (Kernel, MHP), retail chains (Novus), logistics companies (Nova Poshta).
▫ IT Sector: Despite the war, the IT sector maintained its attractiveness and served as a refuge for some investments.
Examples: Deals with Grammarly, Creatio, Allset, and the acquisition of Ukrainian IT companies by foreign entities (e.g., Intellias acquiring Digitally
Inspired).
40

• Asset Devaluation: The value of many Ukrainian assets (companies, real estate, land plots) significantly decreased due to the increased risks
associated with the war. This created opportunities for acquiring assets at discounted prices ("distressed" deals) but also increased risks for investors who
already held assets in Ukraine.
Examples: Sale of distressed assets through the Deposit Guarantee Fund (e.g., Hotel Dnipro), privatization auctions.
• Strengthening Role of Domestic Investors: Foreign investors became more cautious, while Ukrainian investors (financial-industrial groups (FPGs),
private investors, venture funds) continued to invest, albeit in smaller volumes and with greater selectivity.
Examples: Activity of Dragon Capital, UFuture, ICU Ventures, TAS Group.
• Business Relocation: Many companies, especially from frontline regions (Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson Oblasts), were forced to
relocate their offices and production facilities to the western and central regions of Ukraine (Lviv, Ivano-Frankivsk, Zakarpattia, Ternopil, Vinnytsia
Oblasts), as well as abroad (Poland, Romania, Baltic countries). This led to demand for commercial real estate in safer regions.
Examples: Relocation of IT companies to Lviv and Ivano-Frankivsk, opening of offices by Ukrainian companies in Poland.
Key Figures:
• Investment Decline in 2022: According to InVenture estimates, investment volume decreased by 30% or more compared to 2021 (from 2.7 billion to
300 million). Other sources provide even more pessimistic estimates.
• Foreign Direct Investment (FDI): According to the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU), the net outflow of FDI in 2022 amounted to $1.5 billion, compared
to a net inflow of $6.9 billion in 2021. Source: NBU. This indicates a sharp reduction in new foreign investment and capital outflow from the country.
• Growth of Investment in Military Tech: Investments in defense technologies increased manyfold after the start of the full-scale war. Exact figures are
difficult to assess due to the non-public nature of many deals, but, by some estimates, they exceeded $200 million in 2022-2024.
41

Sector 2021 (%)
IT and
Telecommunications
Agriculture
Construction
and Real Estate
Energy
Military Tech
Other
40-50
15-20
10-15
5-10
<1
10-15
2014-2021 (%)
50-70
10-12
10-15
5-18
>8
10-15
Change
Stable;
Trend to decrease
Trend to Decrease
Stable
Increase
Increase
Stable
Examples of Deals (2022-2024)
Grammarly, Creatio, Allset, Fintech Farm, Intellias, DataArt,
SoftServe, investments in product IT companies, outsourcing
Kernel, MHP, A.G.R. Group, Continental Farmers Group,
acquisitions of agricultural companies, elevators,
investments in processing
Dragon Capital, UDP, acquisitions of business centers,
shopping centers, warehouse complexes, sales of distressed
assets, investments in relocation
DTEK, Nebras Power, Elementum Energy, OKKO Group,
investments in solar and wind farms, acquisition of regional
power distribution companies, gas production projects,
construction of energy storage systems
Swarmer, Himera Radios, Buntar Aerospace, Osavul,
Zibra AI, investments in the development of drones,
communication systems, cybersecurity, software,
artiﬁcial intelligence for military purposes
Change in Investment Structure:
Table 3.2.1: Change in Investment Structure by
Sector (by volume, estimate)
Change in Investment Structure by Sector
(by volume, estimate)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
IT and telecom Agriculture Construction
and HC
Energy Military tech Other
46%
17.6%
12.5%
7.5%
0.5%
12.5%
35%
12.5% 12.5%
17.6%
8%
12.5%
2021 2022-2024
Comment:
The increase in the share of energy and Military Tech reﬂects the strategic priorities in wartime conditions – ensuring energy independence and
strengthening defense capabilities.
42

Region/Country
2021
(pre-war period, %)
35-45%
20-25%
20-25%
5-7%
3-5%
5-7%
7-1
1%
5-7%
5-10%
2022-2024
(wartime period, %)
60-70%
10-15%
10-15%
3-5%
5-7%
5-7%
5-7%
5-7%
5-7%
Ukraine
USA
EU (aggregate)
• Germany
• Poland
• Cyprus
• Other EU countries
Great Britain
Other (Israel, Canada, Asia)
Change in Investor Geography:
Table 3.1.2 Change in Investor Geography
Comment: The increase in the share of domestic investments
indicates that Ukrainian businesses, despite the risks,
continue to invest in the country, while foreign investors have
become more cautious.
Business Losses:
According to the KSE Institute, as of September 2023, the total amount of direct
damage caused to Ukraine's infrastructure due to the full-scale Russian invasion was
estimated at $151.2 billion.
According to a survey by the European Business Association (EBA) conducted in
September 2024, 43% of companies have experienced direct losses from the war.
*Source: EBA.*
Change in Investor Geography
(pre-war and wartime period)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
70%
Ukraine USA EU Germany Poland Cyprus Other EU Great
Britain
Other
40%
22.5% 22.5%
6%
4%
6% 6% 6%
7.5%
65%
12.5% 12.5%
4% 4%
6% 6% 6% 6%
2021 (pre-war) 2022-2024 (wartime)
43

3.2. International Support
Table 3.2.1: International Support Programs for Ukraine (Expanded)
Program Organization Description Examples of Investments/Support
Ukraine Facility Plan
(from 2024 to 2027)
EU, G7, IMF, EIB, others The Ukraine Facility Plan envisages the implementation
of structural reforms in the public sector (69 reform),
a number of economic reforms (16 investment indicators)
aimed at developing the business climate and
entrepreneurship, as well as steps to develop priority
sectors that can ensure rapid economic growth.
The ﬁrst pillar is direct support to the state budget –
EUR 38.27 billion, including EUR 33 billion in loans
and EUR 5.27 billion in grants;
The second pillar is a special investment instrument to
cover risks in priority sectors – EUR 6.97 billion;
The third pillar is technical support for reforms and
interest coverage on loans, including those received
earlier – EUR 4.76 billion.
Horizon Europe EU EU program for funding research and innovation, including
support for Ukrainian startups and research projects.
Funding for Ukrainian startups and research projects
in IT, agritech, and energy.
Business Support Programs USAID Grants, technical assistance, and consulting for Ukrainian
businesses.
Grants for small and medium-sized enterprises,
export support, business relocation.
Credit Lines and Guarantees EBRD, IFC, EIB, DFC, MIGA Financing for Ukrainian companies, especially
in the infrastructure, energy, and agricultural sectors.
Loans to MHP, Kernel, Ukrenergo, Nova Poshta,
Astarta; guarantees for Credo Bank, Oschadbank;
investments in Ukrenergo bonds.
Ukraine Support Fund Google for Startups Grants and support for Ukrainian startups. Funding for Ukrainian startups in IT, defense tech,
and education.
Ukraine Trust Fund EIB Fund for ﬁnancing recovery projects and supporting
the Ukrainian economy.
Financing infrastructure reconstruction projects,
support for small and medium-sized businesses.
Investment Guarantees,
Risk Insurance
DFC, MIGA Instruments to reduce risks for investors operating in Ukraine. War risk insurance, guarantees for investment
projects.
44

EU
Horizon Europe (P1)
UKRAINE
USAID
Business Support
Programs (P2)
EBRD, IFC,
EIB, DFC
Credit Lines
and Guarantees (P3)
Google
for Startups
Ukraine Support Fund (P4)
EIB
Ukraine Trust Fund (P5)
DFC,
MIGA
Investments
Guarantees (P6)
EU Organizations US Organizations
Multi-entity Partnerships Private Companies
Key Contributions:
• Stimulating Innovation: Funding
research and development,
especially in areas critical during
wartime (defense, energy,
cybersecurity).
• Supporting Relocation and
Adaptation: Assisting companies in
relocating businesses, adapting to
new conditions, and entering new
markets.
• Ensuring Liquidity: Providing
loans, guarantees, and grants to
maintain the ﬁnancial stability of
Ukrainian companies.
• Infrastructure Reconstruction:
Financing projects to rebuild
damaged infrastructure (energy,
transport, housing).
• Promoting Foreign Investment
Attraction: Providing guarantees,
co-investing, and reducing
investment risk.
Cases (expanded):
EBRD: Provided MHP with $25 million for the construction
of a biogas plant, a $20 million loan to the Ukrainian grain
operator GNT, up to $24.5 million equity commitment to
Dragon Capital's M10 Industrial Park, $3 million to the
company Ecosoft, support for the expansion of the
Ukrainian retail chain NOVUS, and a loan of $13 million to
Nova Poshta. The total volume of EBRD ﬁnancing in
Ukraine since the beginning of the war has exceeded €3
billion.
IFC: Provided a loan of $480 million to MHP.
Google for Startups: Provided grants to Ukrainian startups
through the Ukraine Support Fund totaling $10 million.
EIB: Invested in the Horizon Capital fund, created the
Ukraine Trust Fund with a capital of €400 million.
USAID: Provided grants and technical support totaling
over $1.4 billion.
DFC (US International Development Finance
Corporation): Announced investments in Horizon Capital
projects, as well as providing loans to Ukrainian
businesses.
MIGA (World Bank Group): Dragon Capital's M10
Industrial Park secured $9 million in 10-year war-risk
guarantees.
45

3.3. Market Adaptation
Startup Responses:
• Reorientation to Export
Examples: Preply, Allset, Respeecher.
• Development of Wartime Products
Examples: KURS orbital, BAVOVNA, Skyeton, Swarmer,
Himera Radios, Buntar Aerospace.
• Participation in International Support Programs
Examples: Participation of Ukrainian startups in Google
for Startups, Techstars, Y Combinator programs.
• Flexibility and Adaptability
Investor Responses:
• Decreased Activity
• Change of Focus
Examples: Horizon Capital's investment in GoIT,
investments in defense tech startups.
• Support for Existing Portfolio Companies
Examples: Additional funding rounds for Preply, Creatio.
• Increased Role of Domestic Investors
Examples: Activity of Dragon Capital, UFuture, ICU
Ventures, TAS Group.
• Emergence of New Funds
Examples: Flyer One Ventures, SID Venture Partners, 7
Wings.
Business Adaptation Cases (expanded):
• Restream: A multistreaming platform (founded by Ukrainians) that allows users to stream
video to different platforms simultaneously. After the start of the war, the company actively
supported Ukrainian streamers by providing them with free access to premium features.
Quantitative indicators: Not disclosed, but the company has attracted significant
investment and expanded its operations.
• Ajax Systems: A manufacturer of security systems (Ukraine), which quickly adapted to
wartime conditions, expanding production and launching new products to protect critical
infrastructure facilities. Quantitative indicators: Increased production volumes, entry into
new markets.
• Rozetka: The largest online retailer in Ukraine, which was able to resume operations after
significant destruction of logistics infrastructure and continued development. Quantitative
indicators: Resumption of operations of most stores, expansion of the product range.
• Nova Poshta: The leader in the express delivery market, which adapted its operations to
wartime conditions, ensuring the delivery of humanitarian aid and essential goods, as well
as expanding the network of branches abroad. Quantitative indicators: Increase in the
number of branches, expansion of delivery geography.
• MHP: An agricultural holding that, despite losing some assets, continues to invest in
expanding production and exports. Quantitative indicators: Increase in production and
export volumes.
• Finmap: A money accounting service for businesses, which became free for Ukrainian
entrepreneurs.
• IT companies with offices in frontline cities: Many IT companies that had offices in
Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, Mykolaiv, and other cities close to the combat zone were forced to
relocate their employees and offices to safer regions of Ukraine or abroad (for example, to
Poland, Romania).
46

Analytics (expanded):
• Catalyst for Defense Tech: The war became a catalyst for the development of the defense tech sector in Ukraine. Many new startups and projects
emerged, aimed at developing innovative solutions for defense and security. This sector has significant potential for growth and attracting investment from
both domestic and foreign investors.
Source: Reports of venture funds, media publications, data on investment deals.
• Resilience and Adaptability: Ukrainian companies demonstrated a high level of adaptability and resilience, quickly reorienting to new needs and
markets. This allowed them not only to survive but, in some cases, even to increase their business volumes.
Source: Company reports, interviews with business leaders, analytical materials from consulting companies.
• Importance of International Support: International support (financial, technical, expert) plays a key role in the survival and recovery of Ukrainian
businesses, especially for startups and small and medium-sized enterprises.
Source: Reports from the EBRD, IFC, USAID, Google for Startups, data on grant programs.
• Changing Investment Landscape: The war has led to a change in the investment landscape in Ukraine. New opportunities for investment have emerged
(defense tech, energy, reconstruction), but risks have also increased. Investors are becoming more cautious, but at the same time, there are those who are
ready to invest in Ukraine, despite the war.
• Potential for Recovery: Despite the war, Ukraine retains its investment attractiveness due to its technological potential, skilled workforce, agricultural
sector, and geographical location. Post-war recovery could be a powerful stimulus for attracting investment.
• State policy: An important factor is the state policy to support business, attract investment, create a favorable investment climate, fight corruption and
ensure the rule of law.
At the same time, Defense Tech has become not only relevant but urgent. There's a growing group of venture funds with a deep interest in this area. Personally, I believe that the
number of global conflicts will increase over the next decade, and with that, the defense sector will expand significantly. Right now, Ukrainians are at the very cutting edge of
these technologies.
47

SECTION 4: INVESTMENT IMPACT ASSESSMENT
Introduction
This section analyzes the impact of investments on Ukraine's economic and
social development during the 2014-2024 period. The assessment of impact is
carried out across several key areas:
1. Economic Impact:
• Job creation.
• Contribution to GDP.
• Development of innovation and technology.
• Increased export potential.
• Budget revenues (taxes, fees).
• Infrastructure development.
2. Social Impact:
• Improved living standards for the population.
• Human capital development (education, professional training).
• Support for communities and social initiatives.
• Improved environmental situation.
• Facilitating the reintegration of veterans.
48

4.1. Economic Impact
4.1.1. Job Creation:
General Data: Investments, especially in the IT sector, industry, and agriculture, have contributed to the creation of new jobs in Ukraine. According to
estimates, tens of thousands of jobs were created in the IT sector alone between 2014 and 2024 (exact figures require clarification, but we are talking
about at least 50,000 new jobs, and possibly significantly more). The war has led to significant job losses, but investments in defense technologies and
business relocation have partially offset these losses.
Table 4.1.1
Estimate of new job creation through M&A deals and investments
(based on publicly available data)
InVenture, AIN.UA
InVenture, AIN.UA
InVenture, AIN.UA
InVenture, Forbes, KPMG
InVenture, AIN.UA
InVenture, Forbes, Liga.net
InVenture, AIN.UA, Forbes, DOU
Sector
Year Number of jobs
created (Estimate)
5 000+
7 000+
10 000+
12 000+
8 000+
15 000+
5 000+
7 000+
10 000+
IT
IT
IT
IT, Agro
IT
IT, Agro, Industry
IT, Military Tech, Agro
IT, Military Tech, Industry
IT, Military Tech, Industry, Agro
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
Note: The figures provided are approximate estimates based on investment data,
industry specifics, and information from open sources. Exact data on job creation
within each M&A deal is often not disclosed.
49

Cases (with additions and quantitative indicators):
• Grammarly: Expansion of ofﬁces in Ukraine (Kyiv, Kharkiv, Odesa before the war) and abroad (USA, Canada). Creation of hundreds of jobs for
developers, linguists, marketers, and customer support specialists. Investment amount: over $200 million (2021).
• Ajax Systems: Expansion of security systems production in Ukraine (Kyiv). Creation of new jobs in manufacturing, R&D, sales, and marketing.
Investment amount: Not disclosed, but the company is actively investing in expansion. Geography: Exports to over 169 countries worldwide.
• MHP, Kernel: Investments in expanding production and modernization (e.g., construction of a biogas plant). Creation of jobs in the agricultural sector
(poultry farms, processing plants). Investment amount: Hundreds of millions of dollars over 2014-2024. Geography: Ukraine, as well as exports to over
80 countries worldwide.
• Kernel: Investments in expanding production, logistics infrastructure (terminals, elevators). Creation of jobs in agriculture, transport, and logistics.
Investment amount: Hundreds of millions of dollars over 2014-2024. Geography: Ukraine, as well as exports to many countries around the world.
• Nova Poshta: Development of logistics infrastructure (new terminals, branches, expansion of the vehicle ﬂeet). Creation of thousands of jobs in
logistics, courier delivery, and IT. Investment amount: Hundreds of millions of hryvnias over 2014-2024. Geography: Ukraine, as well as expansion into
the markets of Poland, Lithuania, Czech Republic, Romania, Germany, and Slovakia.
• Relocation of IT Companies: The relocation of IT companies (e.g., SoftServe, EPAM, Luxoft) to the western regions of Ukraine created demand for jobs
in Lviv, Ivano-Frankivsk, Ternopil, and other cities.
50

4.1.2. Contribution to GDP:
General Data: The IT sector and agriculture are among the key sectors of
the Ukrainian economy, generating a significant share of GDP. Investments
in these sectors contribute to GDP growth. Precise figures for the impact of
investments on GDP require additional research using macroeconomic
models, but it is estimated that the IT sector's contribution to Ukraine's GDP
in some years was up to 3-5%.
Example: According to IT Ukraine Association, the export of computer
services from Ukraine in 2023 increased, reaching over $8 billion.
Cases (with additions):
• Grammarly: As a unicorn company, it contributes to Ukraine's GDP
through tax payments, job creation, and indirectly influences economic
growth. Estimated Contribution: Exact figures are not disclosed, but it is a
significant contribution.
• Ajax Systems: The growth of the company's exports contributes to an
increase in foreign exchange earnings and positively affects the country's
balance of payments, and therefore, GDP. Export Geography: Over 169
countries.
• MHP, Kernel: Expansion of production and export of agricultural
products increases the agricultural sector's contribution to GDP. Export
Geography: Dozens of countries worldwide.
• Nova Poshta: Investments in logistics infrastructure contribute to the
development of domestic and foreign trade, which positively impacts
GDP. Geography: Ukraine and neighboring countries.
4.1.3. Development of Innovation and Technology:
General Data: Investments in venture projects and startups, especially in
the IT sector, contribute to the development of innovation and technology
in Ukraine. New products and services are emerging, and advanced
technologies (artificial intelligence, blockchain, cloud computing) are
being implemented.
• Grammarly: Development of innovative solutions in the field of artificial
intelligence for natural language processing. Investments: Over $200
million. Geography: Global market.
• GitLab: Development of a DevOps platform used by developers
around the world. IPO: 2021, valuation over $10 billion. Geography:
Global market.
• People.ai: Creation of an AI-based platform for sales and marketing
management. Investments: Over $100 million. Geography: Global
market.
• Creatio: Development of a low-code platform for business process
automation. Investments: $200 million (2024). Geography: Global
market.
• Ajax Systems: Development of innovative security systems.
Geography: Exports to over 169 countries.
• BAVOVNA, Swarmer, Himera Radios, Buntar Aerospace, Osavul:
Development of innovative drones, communication systems, software,
etc. Geography: Ukraine, with a focus on international markets.
51

4.1.4. Increasing Export Potential:
General Data: Investments in export-oriented companies (IT outsourcing,
product IT companies, agricultural holdings) contribute to an increase in
the export of goods and services, which positively affects Ukraine's trade
balance.
• IT Outsourcing: Ukrainian IT companies (SoftServe, EPAM, Luxoft,
GlobalLogic, Ciklum, Intellias, etc.) provide services to clients around the
world, generating significant export revenue (billions of dollars per year).
Geography: USA, EU, UK, Canada, Israel, and other countries.
• Agricultural Holdings: MHP, Kernel, Astarta export significant volumes
of agricultural products (grain, oil, poultry meat). Geography: EU,
Middle East, Africa, Asia.
• Product IT Companies: Grammarly, Preply, Allset, Restream, and others
sell their products and services on the global market. Geography: Global
market.
• Ajax Systems: Exports security systems to over 169 countries
worldwide.
4.1.5. Budget Revenues:
General Data: Investments contribute to an increase in tax revenues to the
budget (income tax, VAT, payroll taxes). Privatization of state-owned
assets also generates significant revenues.
Example: According to the State Property Fund, privatization in 2023
generated UAH 3.83 billion (USD 104 million at the time) for the budget.
4.1.6. Infrastructure Development:
General Data: Investments in infrastructure projects (construction of roads,
bridges, ports, airports, logistics centers, energy infrastructure) contribute
to economic development and improve quality of life.
• Telecommunications: the acquisition of Lifecell + DATA group + Volia,
known as the “Deal of the Decade”, involves raising funding from EBRD
and IFC for $435M
• Construction of New Terminals in Ports: For example, the construction
of the Neptune grain terminal by Cargill and MV Cargo (investments
exceeding $150 million). Also, Kernel's projects.
• Modernization of Railway Infrastructure: Investments by
Ukrzaliznytsia in upgrading rolling stock and infrastructure (tens of
millions of dollars annually, attracting EBRD loans).
• Road Construction: Implementation of road construction and repair
projects with the participation of foreign investors and IFIs (exact
investment amounts are difficult to estimate, but we are talking about
significant volumes).
• Construction of Logistics Complexes: Nova Poshta (investments in new
terminals - tens of millions of dollars), Rozetka, Dragon Capital
(acquisition and development of warehouse complexes).
• Energy: DTEK (investments in renewable energy - hundreds of millions
of dollars)
52

4.2. Social Impact:
4.2.1. Improving the Standard of Living of the Population:
General Data: The creation of new jobs, rising wages, and the
development of social infrastructure (schools, hospitals, kindergartens)
contribute to improving the standard of living of the population.
• Opening of New IT Offices: Creation of jobs with high salaries for IT
specialists. Example: Expansion of Grammarly, SoftServe, and EPAM
offices in Ukraine (thousands of jobs). According to IT Ukraine
Association, the average salary in the IT sector in 2023 was significantly
higher than the national average (exact figures depend on specialization
and experience, but we are talking about 2-5 times higher salaries).
Source: IT Ukraine Association, DOU.ua (developer surveys)
• Expansion of Production: Creation of jobs in manufacturing
enterprises. Example: Investments by MHP, Kernel, and Astarta in
expanding production (thousands of jobs). According to the State
Statistics Service of Ukraine, the average salary in agriculture and the
food industry grew during 2016-2021 but then decreased due to the war.
Source: State Statistics Service of Ukraine, company reports.
• Housing construction: Did not have examples in the given
documentation
4.2.2. Human Capital Development:
General Data: Investments in education, professional training, and
research contribute to the development of human capital, improving
worker skills and creating new knowledge and technologies.
• Investments in IT Education: Opening of new IT schools, courses, and
support for educational initiatives (e.g., Mate academy, GoIT).
Investment amounts: tens of millions of dollars (e.g., Horizon Capital's
investment in GoIT). Number of graduates: Thousands of students
complete various IT courses annually. Source: AIN.UA, DOU.ua,
company reports.
• Company Cooperation with Universities: Creation of joint educational
programs, laboratories, and internships for students. Example:
Cooperation of IT companies (SoftServe, EPAM, GlobalLogic) with
Ukrainian universities (KPI, LNU named after Franko, KhNURE, etc.).
• Support for Scientific Research: Funding of research projects in the
fields of IT, agrotechnology, and energy. Example: Investments in R&D
centers of Ukrainian and international companies (e.g., Grammarly, Ajax
Systems, EBRD investments in scientific research).
• Support of Defense-Tech industry: Creating new high-skilled jobs
Example: Swarmer: development of innovative drones. Example: Himera
Radios: creation of innovative secure communication systems.
53

4.2.3. Support for Communities and Social Initiatives:
General Data: Many companies implement social projects aimed at
supporting communities, developing infrastructure, and helping vulnerable
groups of the population, especially during the war.
• Support for the Army: Many companies provide financial and material
assistance to the Armed Forces of Ukraine (hundreds of millions of
hryvnias). Example: Nova Poshta (transfers significant funds to the needs
of the army), Rozetka (provides discounts on goods for the military), MHP
(provides the army with food), Kernel (finances the purchase of
equipment), Ajax Systems (provides security systems). Source: Company
reports, publications in the media.
• Humanitarian Aid: Assistance to those affected by the war, internally
displaced persons. Example: Activities of foundations established by
Ukrainian entrepreneurs and companies (e.g., the "Come Back Alive"
Foundation, the Serhiy Prytula Foundation). Volumes of assistance:
Hundreds of millions of hryvnias. Source: Foundation reports,
publications in the media.
• Social Projects of Companies: For example, the construction of
kindergartens, sports grounds, and support for local communities.
Example: Social programs of MHP, Kernel, and Astarta in the regions
where they operate.
4.2.4. Improving the Environmental Situation:
General Data: Investments in renewable energy, energy efficiency, and
environmentally friendly technologies contribute to improving the
environmental situation, reducing emissions of harmful substances, and
preserving natural resources.
• Construction of Solar and Wind Power Plants: Reduction of
greenhouse gas emissions. Example: DTEK projects (construction of wind
farms, solar power plants), investments by Nebras Power, Elementum
Energy. Investment amounts: Hundreds of millions of dollars. CO2
emissions reduction: Tens of thousands of tons per year (depending on the
capacity of the stations). Source: Company reports, publications in the
media.
• Implementation of Energy-Efficient Technologies at Enterprises:
Reduction of energy consumption and reduction of negative impact on
the environment. Example: Modernization of production at MHP, Kernel,
and Astarta enterprises.
• Investments in Waste Recycling: Contributing to solving the problem of
garbage and environmental pollution. Example: Madoqua Renewables
project in Ternopil.
54

4.2.5. Promoting the Reintegration of
Veterans:
General Data: Some companies and startups
are creating programs to support veterans,
helping them adapt to civilian life, acquire new
professions, and ﬁnd employment. Also in
Ukraine there are separate initiatives for
veteran businesses.
• Lobster: A startup offering programming
courses for veterans. The founders of the
startup are themselves combat veterans.
• Veteran Hub: An organization that provides
support to veterans in various areas
(employment, legal assistance,
psychological support).
• Reintegration programs: Many IT
companies offer retraining and employment
programs for veterans.
• Veteran Business: There are funds and
accelerators that support business initiatives
of veterans.
4.3. Analytical Data (Sources):
Government Reports:
• Ministry of Economy of Ukraine: Statistics on investments, employment, GDP, exports.
• State Statistics Service of Ukraine: Data on wages, employment, and economic activity.
• National Bank of Ukraine: Data on investments, balance of payments.
• Ministry of Social Policy of Ukraine: Data on social programs and support for vulnerable groups of
the population.
• Ministry of Veterans Affairs of Ukraine: Data and policies regarding the reintegration of veterans.
Independent Research:
• AVentures Capital, Capital Times, InVenture, Dragon Capital, Concorde Capital, UVCA: Reports
and analytical materials on the investment market of Ukraine.
• KPMG Data: KPMG’s M&A Radar Ukraine (for other years)
• International Consulting Companies (McKinsey, Deloitte, PwC): Studies of the Ukrainian economy,
individual industries, and the investment climate.
• Center for Economic Strategy (CES): Analytical materials on economic policy, reforms, and
investments.
Industry Associations:
• IT Ukraine Association: Data and analytics on the IT sector of Ukraine.
• Ukrainian Agribusiness Club (UCAB): Data and analytics on the agricultural sector of Ukraine.
• European Business Association (EBA): Assessments of the investment climate, business surveys.
• American Chamber of Commerce in Ukraine (AmCham): Assessments of the investment climate,
business surveys.
55

Conclusions:
• Investments have a significant positive impact on the economic and social development of
Ukraine, contributing to job creation, GDP growth, innovation development, export growth, and
budget revenues.
• The greatest impact is observed in the IT, agriculture, energy, and infrastructure sectors, but other
sectors also benefit from investment.
• The war has shifted investor priorities and the structure of investments but has not completely
stopped the investment process. New areas of investment related to defense, reconstruction, and
resilience have emerged.
• International support plays a key role in the recovery and development of the Ukrainian
economy, especially in the context of war.
• To further attract investment, it is necessary to improve the investment climate, fight corruption,
carry out reforms, ensure stability, and actively work to attract foreign capital for the reconstruction
of Ukraine.
• Ukrainian businesses demonstrates a high level of adaptability and innovation, which is the key
to success in wartime and post-war recovery.
56

SECTION 5: PROJECTIONS
Introduction
This section is dedicated to forecasting the development of the Ukrainian
investment market for the period 2025-2029. The scenarios are built on the
basis of:
1. Estimates of the IMF, the World Bank, the EBRD and other international
organizations.
2. Trends of 2014–2024 and adaptive ability of Ukrainian business.
3. Theories of scenario planning (Shell) and theories of economic cycles
(Kondratiev, Minsky).
For each scenario, the following are given:
• Macroeconomic forecast (GDP, inﬂation, exchange rate, budget,
external balance).
• Dynamics of private and venture investments.
• Key industry trends (agriculture, industry, logistics, IT, energy, defense
industry).
• Speciﬁcs of exports, domestic demand, business relocation, and M&A
activity.
57

BASELINE SCENARIO: "MODERATE STABILIZATION"
Key assumption: the intensity of hostilities in 2025 is decreasing significantly, but a peace agreement has not been reached.
External support continues at the level of 2022-2024, the global economy avoids a new recession.
2025
+2–3 %
≈10 %
42–45
+7–10% per year
Real GDP growth
Inflation (December, yoy)
UAH/US$ exchange rate (average)
Private equity and venture capital investments
2026
+4–5 %
7–8 %
40–44
+8–10% per year
2027
+4 %
5–6 %
38–42
+8 % per year
According to World Bank, EBRD and EIB estimates, Ukraine’s reconstruction needs already amount to about $524 billion (nearly
three times the country’s expected 2024 GDP), so international assistance (over $100 billion provided since 2022) will remain
crucial for maintaining macro-financial stability.
58

59
5.1.1 Macroeconomics and finance
GDP growth has slowed due to security risks and high defense spending, but is gradually reviving under the influence of the resumption of business and
logistics routes.
Inflation is declining due to the NBU's tight monetary policy and the recovery of imports of goods.
The budget maintains a significant deficit (~15–20% of GDP) covered by donor grants and soft loans; public debt is gradually decreasing in % of GDP.
The balance of payments is maintained by MFA packages and transfers from labor migrants; the NBU's reserves remain above $25 billion.
Globally, the baseline scenario assumes the world economy avoids a recession: global GDP growth in 2025 is around 3.0–3.3% (the IMF projects 3.3%),
with the U.S. growing ~2.5–2.7% and the Eurozone about 1% (picking up to ~1.4% in 2026 as conditions improve). Worldwide, inflation is on a
downward trajectory (~4–5%), allowing major central banks to cautiously begin easing monetary policy. Energy prices are assumed to stabilize oil
around $70–75/barrel absent new shocks, and EU natural gas markets balanced thanks to diversified supplies. Nonetheless, risks remain elevated: any
escalation of the war or global upheaval (for example, in China) could worsen the outlook.
The baseline scenario builds in cautious optimism without a sharp post-war boom. Ukraine will make gradual progress on reforms and EU integration:
official EU accession talks are expected to begin in 2025, spurring regulatory alignment with EU norms. However, anti-corruption and judicial reforms
advance only moderately, tempering investor confidence.
Overall, the baseline scenario represents a relative stabilization of the economy amid a protracted but contained conflict.

60
5.1.2 Investments
• Foreign direct investment (FDI) remains limited in the near term: most
Western investors adopt a “wait-and-see” stance until security risks clearly
recede and reform progress becomes evident.
• Internal investments are the main driver of recovery (relocation,
infrastructure repair).
• The investment structure shifts only slowly – domestic investors continue to
play a dominant role in 2025, similar to during the war. We may see isolated
major deals involving Western funds or strategic investors in the most resilient
sectors (IT, food processing, renewable energy), but broad-based FDI inﬂows
are unlikely until the conﬂict decisively abates.
• The venture capital market is growing by 7-10% every year, but key "large"
funds are returning only closer to 2027-2028. Venture funds already active in
Ukraine will keep supporting local startups (especially in IT and defense
tech), but few new international players will enter before peace.
• M&A transactions take place in segments where assets have lost value
(banks, agricultural holdings, energy). The M&A market will see some activity
in distressed assets: local investors (potentially backed by government
programs) may acquire struggling banks, industrial facilities or agribusinesses
at deep discounts.
Key Investment Trends:
• Priority for critical infrastructure
• Investments in military and security technologies
• Cautious expansion in safer regions
• Gradual rebuilding of damaged facilities
• Support for critical export capabilities

61
Sectoral Investment Distribution (% of total volume)
0 5 10 15 20 25
Agriculture 15%
IT & Technology 20%
Energy 15%
Manufacturing 12%
Defense Industry 15%
Infrastructure 18%
Other 5%
Investment Sources (% of total volume)
0 9 18 35
International
Financial
Organizations
25%
Limited
Foreign Direct
Investment
15%
Domestic
Ukrainian
Investors
30%
Specialized
Funds for
Affected
Economies
20%
Government
Reconstruction
Programs
10%
Investment Distribution by Sector: Baseline Scenario
Projected total volume: $2-3 billion annually by 2027-28

62
Sectoral Outlook: Baseline Scenario
Heatmap of projected sector growth (annual % GDP)
Sector 2025 2026 2027 2028-29
Agriculture +2% +3% +5% +4%
Manufacturing +1% +3% +4% +5%
IT & Technology +5% +7% +8% +7%
Energy +2% +3% +4% +5%
Defense Industry +6% +7% +5% +4%
Infrastructure +3% +5% +5% +4%
Retail & Consumer Market +2% +3% +4% +5%
Pharmaceuticals +2% +3% +3% +4%
Financial Sector +1% +2% +3% +4%
Growth Intensity Scale
1-2% 3-4% 5-6% 7-8% 9%+
Key characteristics of the baseline scenario:
Gradual decrease in combat intensity without full end of war in 2025
Moderate international ﬁnancial support (~$20B annually)
Limited investments due to continuing security risks
Slow progress in reforms and European integration
Partial functioning of ports and transport corridors
Key growth points:
IT & Technology: highest growth indicators (7-8%) due to relative sector
resilience
Defense Industry: stable growth (5-7%) due to necessity of supplying
the army
Infrastructure: moderate growth (4-5%) focused on critical repairs
Agriculture: gradual recovery (up to 5% in 2027) with subsequent
stabilization
Manufacturing: slow recovery (1-5%) due to security risks for production

63
Export-Oriented vs Domestic Sectors:
Baseline Scenario
In the baseline scenario, export-oriented industries
(like agriculture, metals, IT) recover gradually
and face both external and internal hurdles.
Ukrainian merchandise exports in 2025 will likely remain ~30–40% below
pre-war volumes, although the gap will slowly narrow as new trade routes
open and production stabilizes. Domestic demand improves but is constrained
by households’ reduced incomes; it is propped up somewhat by government
spending. Businesses focused on the domestic market (retail, services,
construction) see uneven growth – primarily in safer regions and segments
with post-war demand (repairs, transportation, healthcare). Some companies
continue to operate in relocated form, establishing themselves in new regions
away from conﬂict zones. Government programs support local production
and SME lending, helping to sustain baseline-level activity. There is no mass
exodus of businesses abroad in the baseline – most ﬁrms hold on waiting for
stability to expand at home.

PESSIMISTIC SCENARIO: "PROTRACTED CONFLICT AND STAGNATION"
Key assumption: the war is moving into a long phase of positional warfare with no prospects for peace until 2027; a decrease in
the volume of donor assistance. The conflict becomes drawn out or “frozen” for years without resolution. In such conditions,
security risks remain extremely high, infrastructure continues to suffer periodic destruction (even if less intense than at the 2022–23
peak), and a significant portion of the country stays directly or indirectly affected by hostilities.
2025
-1 %...+1 %
+15-20 %
50–60
-10...0 % per year
Real GDP growth
2026
-0,5 %...+1 %
+12-15 %
55–65
0–5 % per year
2027
+1-2 %
+8-10 %
50–60
+5 % per year
GDP: New recession – IMF forecasts -1.7% in 2024 and -1% in 2025
Inflation: high due to energy and food shortages, devaluation.
64

On the global stage, the pessimistic scenario overlaps with a world recession in 2024–2025: for example, the U.S. might slide into downturn (as high
interest rates to fight inflation finally bite), Europe could see near-zero or negative growth, and China might face financial turmoil due to a property market
crisis. Global growth could slow to under 2.5% – effectively a stagflationary environment (weak growth coupled with >6% inflation).
Commodity prices might actually fall due to weak demand (oil perhaps ~$60/barrel or lower), which would squeeze russia’s revenues but also deprive
Ukraine of some export income (metals, food become cheaper). In 2025, the U.S. under this scenario turns more inward: a new, more isolationist
administration could scale back global engagement, and support for Ukraine becomes contentious domestically. Protectionist trade policies intensify – the
U.S. might even impose broad new import tariffs, sparking trade conflicts. Europe faces its own crises – an energy crunch could re-emerge (say, from
Middle East instability or a full cutoff of remaining Russian gas transit), plus increased pressure from new refugee waves (from Africa or the Middle East),
forcing the EU to divert budgets to internal social and defense needs at the expense of aid to Ukraine. China’s growth in the pessimistic scenario is sluggish
(~3–4%); it curtails foreign investments and perhaps leans closer to russia economically (as relations with the West deteriorate). russia’s economy, despite
sanctions, manages to muddle through by converting to a war footing: after an anomalous rise in 2024 (due to war spending), in 2025 it slows to ~1% or
less. Essentially, russia becomes a “militarized economy” with minimal growth, yet sufficient to fund continued aggression. High inflation (~10%) and labor
shortages plague russia, but the regime endures for now.
Thus, under the pessimistic scenario, external conditions offer little help to Ukraine: the world is preoccupied with its own downturn or crises, and the
aggressor has not been broken from within. In terms of cycle theory, this resembles a prolonged “depressive phase” or a 1970s-style scenario where
shocks produce global stagflation.
65

Investments blocked due to high risks, minimal state investments.
Foreign private capital virtually stays out – the risks are simply too high. Investment is
dominated by government spending and IFI funds, and those are directed mostly toward
keeping the country running (budget support, emergency infrastructure repairs) rather than
business development. FDI is minimal: there may be only isolated cases where an investor is
willing to gamble on a potentially huge long-term payoff by buying assets at rock-bottom.
Ukrainian entrepreneurs are also constrained: most either shelve expansion plans or focus
on only the most essential, quick-return projects needed for survival (basic goods, repairs,
logistics). The venture market experiences a “winter”: very few new deals, startups survive
on previously raised capital or grants. By 2029, the economy loses competitiveness and
falls behind technologically as investment and innovation dry up.
The pessimistic scenario could lead to deindustrialization – a loss of much of the previously
built industrial base. Some industrial enterprises will simply deteriorate beyond use without
modernization by 2029.
Pessimistic Scenario: Investment Climate Risk Factors
(higher values = higher risks, scale 0-100)
Geopolitical Risks
Economic Instability
Regulatory Barriers
Infrastructure Constraints
Talent Outflow
20
40
60
80
100
85
80
75
85
75
Pessimistic Scenario
Source: UVCA Analytical Report, Section 5 (2025-2029), 2025
Emergency response and critical repairs
Priority for defense industry
Focus on basic survival needs
Minimal commercial development
Fragmented and localized investments
66

67
Investment Distribution by Sector: Pessimistic Scenario
Projected total volume: Stagnant or declining investments
Agriculture
IT & Technology
Energy
Manufacturing
Defense Industry
Infrastructure
Other
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
15%
10%
10%
8%
25%
25%
7%
Humanitarian
Aid
Government
Defense
Spending
Infrastructure
Support
Grants
Minimal
Domestic
Investment
Diaspora and
Small Donors
0 10 15 20 25 30
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5

Sectoral Outlook: Pessimistic Scenario
Heatmap of projected sector growth/decline (annual % GDP)
Key characteristics of the pessimistic scenario:
Protracted conﬂict without resolution until 2029
Continued destruction of infrastructure and production facilities
Increasing "donor fatigue" and reduction in foreign aid
Limited access to export markets due to port blockades
Outﬂow of skilled professionals and capital abroad
Systemic economic stagnation (0% GDP) or recession
Key sectoral trends:
Energy: largest decline (-6% in 2025) due to continued infrastructure
damage
Retail & Consumer Market: sharp contraction (-8% in 2025) due to
falling household incomes
Manufacturing: prolonged decline due to destruction and limited
market access
Defense Industry: only sector with stable growth due to prioritization
Agriculture and Pharmaceuticals: minimal recovery in 2027-2029
Sector 2025 2026 2027 2028-29
Agriculture -2% -3% +1% +2%
Manufacturing -5% -3% -1% 0%
IT & Technology -4% -2% 0% +1%
Energy -6% -4% -2% -1%
Infrastructure -3% -1% 0% +1%
Retail & Consumer Market -8% -5% -2% 0%
Pharmaceuticals -1% 0% +1% +2%
Financial Sector -6% -4% -2% -1%
Growth/Decline Intensity Scale
-6% and below -4% to -5% -2% to -3% -1% 0%
+1% to +2% +3% and above
68

69
Export-Oriented vs Domestic Sectors:
Pissimistic Scenario
The pessimistic scenario is characterized by
a sharp tilt toward the domestic market
at the expense of exports.
Export sectors suffer from loss of markets and logistics: e.g. metal and chemical
exports down perhaps 80–90%, agri exports down over 50% vs pre-war.
Meanwhile, businesses oriented to the domestic market fare relatively better
(though overall volumes are smaller). Domestic demand is mostly served by
Ukrainian producers since imports of many goods are difficult (due to currency
controls and logistics); this actually helps some local industries (food, simple
consumer goods) stay afloat. But overall, the domestic market itself has shrunk
with the population and incomes. The government increasingly intervenes –
elements of a “wartime economy” emerge: price controls on essentials,
rationing, direct state support to keep certain factories running. The private
sector, especially large firms, partly goes into “survival mode” or moves
capital abroad to hedge risks.
By 2029, Ukraine risks losing its position in global markets for its main exports
and will need significant time and investment to regain them after the war. At
the same time, the domestic economy has become highly aid-dependent;
internal markets are sustained largely by government and humanitarian
spending, undermining the normal competitive business environment.

OPTIMISTIC SCENARIO: "RAPID RECOVERY AND INVESTMENT BOOM"
Key assumption is a peace agreement or a sustainable truce in the ﬁrst half of 2025, a powerful "post-war Marshall" program.
2025
+4-5 %
7-8 %
38–40
+15-20 % per year
Real GDP growth
2026
+10-12 %
5-6 %
36–38
+18-25 % per year
2027
+8-10 %
4-5 %
35–37
+15-20 % per year
"Marshall Plan": grants and loans $30-35 billion in 2025
FDI: rapid entry of strategic investors into banks, real estate, energy, and industrial parks.
Venture capital: the appearance of 2-3 new unicorns, the average check doubles.
Industry breakthrough: agrotech startups, nearshoring in industry, a big boom in construction and infrastructure, new RES plants
and green hydrogen.
70

71
A crucial factor is the scale of external financing: after peace, international partners (the U.S., EU, IMF, World Bank, etc.) would launch a Marshall
Plan-like effort for Ukraine, providing tens of billions of dollars in grants and concessional loans annually for rebuilding infrastructure and the economy. In
this optimistic case, external aid in 2025 could exceed $35 billion, jump-starting reconstruction on an unprecedented scale.
Geopolitical conditions are also favorable: the United States maintains strong bipartisan support for Ukraine regardless of the 2024 election outcome, and
the new U.S. administration (even if leadership changes) continues policies of robust backing for Ukraine’s defense and reconstruction. Protectionist
tendencies in the U.S. wane – threats of new tariffs or trade wars recede, and instead there is renewed transatlantic cooperation in trade. The global
economy in this scenario performs better than baseline: world growth in 2025 could exceed 3.5%, approaching historical averages. Monetary policy
easing (rate cuts by the Fed and ECB) happens sooner thanks to faster disinflation, which stimulates investment worldwide. The Eurozone in 2025 modestly
outperforms baseline expectations ~1.5% growth (versus ~1% baseline), accelerating to ~2% in 2026, as the energy crisis is firmly resolved and EU
budgets reallocate some defense spending toward growth (including aid to Ukraine). China’s economy also follows an upbeat trajectory: Beijing manages
–2% GDP under the weight of sanctions, loss of oil revenue, and military setbacks; internal political turmoil is possible, further eroding russia’s capacity to
continue aggression.
In summary, the optimistic scenario represents a swift onset of peace and an economic surge, bolstered by a supportive global environment. In cycle terms,
this corresponds to a transition from depression to expansion (in Minsky’s terms, a shift from “discredited expectations” to a new wave of confidence and
investment), and in Kondratiev long-wave terms – the potential start of a new upswing, fueled by technological renewal and reconstruction.
• Focus on modernization and technological upgrade
• Integration with European supply chains
• Energy transformation toward green energ
• Development of high-tech startups
and ecosystem
• Export-oriented manufacturing

72
0 10 15 20 25 30
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5
International
Financial
Organizations
FDI from EU
and US
Private Equity
and VC Funds
Ukrainian
Diaspora
Investment
EU
Reconstruction
Funds
Agriculture
IT &
Technology
Energy
Manufacturing
Defense
Industry
Infrastructure
Other
0 8 16 24 30
18%
25%
20%
17%
10%
15%
5%

73
Sectoral Outlook: Optymistic Scenario
Heatmap of projected sector growth (annual % GDP)
Key characteristics of the optimistic scenario:
Rapid end of war (first half of 2025) with achievement of stable peace
Large-scale recovery program like "Marshall Plan" (>$35B per year)
Double-digit growth rates in key sectors from 2026-2027
Strong influx of foreign direct investment and return of specialists
Rapid EU integration and restoration of export capabilities
Key growth points:
IT & Technology: leads with growth up to 18% in 2028-29 due to
technological innovation
Manufacturing: strong recovery (15%) through investor return and
EU integration
Energy: significant growth (up to 15%) through transformation and
"green transition"
Defense Industry: high growth in early years (10-12%) with gradual
reduction in pace
Agriculture: sustained growth to 12% with transition to high added value
Sector 2025 2026 2027 2028-29
Agriculture +4% +8% +10% +12%
Manufacturing +3% +10% +15% +15%
IT & Technology +8% +12% +15% +18%
Energy +5% +8% +12% +15%
Infrastructure +6% +10% +12% +10%
Retail & Consumer Market +5% +10% +12% +12%
Pharmaceuticals +4% +6% +8% +10%
Financial Sector +3% +5% +8% +10%
Growth Intensity Scale
1-3% 4-6% 7-9% 10-12% 13%+

74
Comparative Scenario Table: Key Indicators
The table below summarizes key macroeconomic and investment metrics for each scenario:
GDP Growth (real)
Scenario Inflation
(year-end) Investment Dynamics Investment Dynamics
~7% by 2029;
currency stabilizes /
appreciates
~10% (end-2025)
~5% (2029);
gradual currency
depreciation
(~45 UAH/USD)
>15% (2025) with
risk of 20%;
currency under
severe pressure
(devaluation likely)
Strong post-war boom:
cumulative +15–20% over
2025–27 (double-digit
annual growth in 2026–27)
Moderate recovery:
+2–3% in 2025;
+4–5% in 2026–27;
return to ~$2–3B annual
investment by 2027–28
Stagnation: ~0% in 2025 (±);
~0–2% in 2026–29
(near-zero growth)
Optimistic
Baseline
Pessimistic
Massive FDI inflows after 2025;
investment grows 5–20% annually;
return to pre-war investment levels
by 2026;
thriving M&A and venture markets
Gradual investment growth
(7–10%/yr);
pre-war investment volume
regained by ~2027;
cautious return of M&A
and VC deals
Stagnant or minimal investment
(2–5% growth or even decline);
“investment winter” till decade’s end;
FDI almost nil (only IFI support
for basics)
Rapid end to war in 2025;
successful reforms & fast EU accession;
Marshall-Plan aid >$30B/yr;
favorable global backdrop
(global growth >3.5%, early
monetary easing, constructive China,
Russia’s economy crisis)
Protracted but easing conflict (no full
peace before 2026);
reforms progress moderately;
large ongoing external support
(~$20B/yr);
world economy avoids recession
(global ~3%, US ~2.6%, EU ~1%)
War continues through 2029
(“frozen” conflict);
donor fatigue leads to reduced aid;
global recession 2024–25 (world <2.5%,
US recession, EU ~0%, China crisis);
new trade wars & US isolationism;
Russia’s economy militarized but
avoids collapse
Note: Figures are illustrative to
highlight scenario differences.
Actual outcomes may vary.
GDP growth and inflation are
approximate scenario-average
values. Investment volumes
include domestic and foreign
private investment, loans, M&A
etc. All scenarios assume
continued significant Western
aid, but volumes differ
markedly.

75
Sectoral Performance by Scenario (2025-2027)
(% of pre-war levels or growth rates)
Baseline
Grain harvest: 50-55M tons
60-70% of pre-war capacity
+5-10% annually
70% of pre-war capacity
10-15% of investments
+5-7% retail turnover
+25-30% investment
Pessimistic
Grain harvest: <40M tons
0-2% growth
50% of pre-war capacity
~10% of investments
-15% retail turnover
Ports blocked
Sector
Agricultural Sector
Manufacturing
IT Sector
Energy
Defense/Dual-use
Consumer Market
Logistics
Optimistic
Grain harvest: 60-70M tons
+15-20% annually
15-20% of investments
+15-20% retail turnover
Full EU integration
Key UVCA Recommendations for Each Scenario
Pessimistic:
• Crisis consulting, cost optimization
• Debt restructuring
• Personnel retention programs
• Critical sector monitoring
Baseline:
• Comprehensive risk management
• Logistics audit and optimization
• Remote work software solutions
• Business scenario planning
Optimistic:
• Foreign capital attraction
• Large infrastructure project structuring
• M&A advisory support
• Joint venture formation

76
5.4. Sectoral Forecasts
Table 5.4.1: Projected Investment Structure by Sector (2025-2029)
Sector Forecast
(share of total investment volume)
IT and Telecommunications
Agriculture
Energy (incl. renewable)
Military Tech (Defence & Dual-Use)
Construction and Real Estate
Other
25-35%
15-20%
15-20%
10-15%
10-15%
10-15%
Rationale
Retention of leadership, but possible slowdown in growth rates. Development of product companies,
artificial intelligence, cybersecurity, fintech.
Recovery of the agricultural sector, investments in processing, logistics, and agritech.
Investments in restoring energy infrastructure, developing renewable energy, and increasing energy efficiency.
Continued growth of investments in defense technologies, development of drones, communication systems,
and cybersecurity.
Reconstruction of housing and infrastructure, demand for commercial real estate in safer regions.
Investments in the food industry, pharmaceuticals, transport, logistics, and other sectors.
Also, a major area of opportunity is defense tech. Ukraine has the talent, innovation, and real-time testing environments that are unique. Some Ukrainian startups are building
technologies that don’t exist anywhere else in the world—we're pioneering in many areas. As horrible as it sounds, real-world conditions have pushed rapid innovation in this space.

77
5.4. Sectoral Forecasts
Table 5.4.1: Projected Investment Structure by Sector (2025-2029)
IT & Telecom
30%
Agriculture
17.5%
Energy
17.5%
Military Tech
12.5%
Construction
12.5%
Other 10%
Investment
Structure
IT & Telecom (25-35%)
Product companies, AI, cybersecurity
Agriculture (15-20%)
Processing, logistics, agritech
Energy (15-20%)
Renewables, infrastructure, efficiency
Military Tech (10-15%)
Drones, communications, cybersecurity
Construction (10-15%)
Reconstruction, safer region development
Other (10-15%)
Food, pharmaceuticals, transport, logistics
Post-War Investment Outlook
Ukraine begins economic recovery
by 2027-2028
Defense tech becomes a new
export specialty
Foreign direct investment predicted
to increase
Energy independence becomes
a national priority

78
Table 5.4.2 Scenarios for Changes in the Ukrainian Investment Market in 2025-2029
Investment
Volume
(million
USD)
0M
1500M
3000M
4500M
2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029
Year
$305M
$1700M
$1800M
$2160M
$2592M
$3110M
$3732M
$4478M
$1980M
$2178M
$2396M
$2636M
$2900M
$1890M $1966M $2044M $2126M
$2211M
Optimistic: 15-20% growth
Baseline: 7-10% growth
Pessimistic: 2-5% growth
Historical Data
Forecast
Optimistic
Baseline
Pessimistic
Actual Data
John Patton, Head of EMEA & Asia
at Argentem Creek Partners
Currently and understandably, asset prices are
under pressure. However, this will not remain the
case for long. The best opportunities are to be had
now. However, there will still be excellent
opportunities after this period of dislocation. We’re
currently launching a new $500 million fund for
Ukraine, focused on critical minerals, energy,
logistics, agri, tech and health care.

79
Key Sectors and Rationale:
Military Tech: Demand for innovative defense solutions will remain high.
Ukraine has the potential to become a regional hub for the development
and production of defense technologies.
• Rationale: Ongoing war, the need to modernize the Armed Forces of
Ukraine, the global trend of increasing defense spending.
• Examples of Potential Investments: Development and production of
drones, electronic warfare/electronic intelligence systems,
cybersecurity, troop management software, communication tools.
Agritech: Technologies that improve efficiency, sustainability, and yield
will be in demand.
• Rationale: Agriculture is a key sector of the Ukrainian economy, the
need for modernization, increased productivity, adaptation to climate
change.
• Examples of Potential Investments: Precision agriculture, drones, farm
management systems, biotechnology, agricultural product processing.
Green & Decentralization Energy: Restoration of energy infrastructure,
transition to more sustainable energy sources, global climate goals.
• Rationale: Energy security, decarbonization of the economy,
international obligations of Ukraine.
• Examples of Potential Investments: Solar and wind power plants,
bioenergy, energy storage systems, energy-efficient technologies.
IT & Software: Retention of leadership, but possibly slower growth rates.
Development of product companies, artificial intelligence, cybersecurity,
fintech.
• Rationale: High level of qualification of Ukrainian IT specialists,
competitive salaries, global demand for IT services.
• Examples of Potential Investments: Software development,
outsourcing, cloud computing, artificial intelligence, cybersecurity,
fintech.
Reconstruction and Infrastructure: The need to rebuild damaged
infrastructure will create significant demand for investment.
• Rationale: The need to rebuild housing, roads, bridges, energy
networks, and social infrastructure.
• Examples of Potential Investments: Construction of housing, roads,
bridges, energy facilities, social infrastructure facilities.
Logistics: Changes in logistics supply, increase in exports and imports,
construction of terminals and hubs.
• Examples: Investments in Nova Poshta, the development of terminals in
ports.
It's understandable that investors want certainty—that their capital is protected, that their contracts won’t be challenged in court, and that the companies and teams they support operate within a
clear legal framework. In this context, Ukraine’s role as a back office for R&D and engineering continues to function well. It’s a working model—and one that already brings real financial value.

80
As members of the Ukrainian Private Equity & Venture Capital Association, we have an
important role to play—promoting Ukraine’s potential, connecting investors and
entrepreneurs, and contributing to policymaking to help create a more transparent and
capital-friendly environment. Every effort—whether by entrepreneurs, investors, or
policymakers—to be a reliable counterpart strengthens international conﬁdence in
Ukraine. I truly believe that, despite the challenges, there is a bright future ahead. These
turbulent times will eventually give way to a period of unleashed potential, and both
foreign and local investors will have meaningful opportunities.
5.5. Regional Forecasts
Ukraine:
• Western Ukraine: Will become a center for business relocation,
development of IT clusters, logistics hubs, and production.
• Central Ukraine: Recovery of industry, agriculture, and infrastructure.
• Eastern and Southern Ukraine: Recovery after de-occupation,
investments in reconstruction, development of ports (subject to the
unblocking of sea routes).
• Kyiv: Preservation of the status of a business and innovation center,
investments in IT, real estate, and the ﬁnancial sector.
Eastern Europe: Ukraine can become a key hub for technology and
innovation companies seeking to enter the Eastern European markets.
Increased cooperation with Poland, the Baltic countries, and other
neighbors. Example: Investments by Polish companies in the Ukrainian IT
sector (Euvic Group, Pracuj Ventures).
MENA (Middle East and North Africa): Possible increase in investments
from MENA countries, especially in agriculture and energy (both
traditional and renewable). Examples: Investments by SALIC in MHP,
interest of Qatari companies in Ukrainian energy.
Global: Ukrainian startups will continue to seek opportunities to enter
global markets, especially in the US and the EU.
5.6. Venture Development Index
Metrics:
• Growth in Investment Volumes: Tracking the total amount of investment
in Ukrainian startups and companies.
• Number of Funds: Monitoring the number of active venture capital
funds, private equity funds, and angel investors in Ukraine.
• Successful Exits: Tracking the number and value of successful exits
(IPOs, acquisitions) of Ukrainian companies.
• Startup Ecosystem Development: Assessing the growth of incubators,
accelerators, and other startup support organizations.
• Talent Pool: Tracking the size and quality of the Ukrainian talent pool,
especially in technology and innovation.
• Legislative and Regulatory Environment: Improving legislation,
simplifying business operations, protecting investor rights.
• Geopolitical Stability: End of the war, establishment of peace, security
guarantees.

81
John Patton, Head of EMEA & Asia at Argentem Creek Partners
One key to success is robust structuring of investments to protect against fraud, which
remains a heightened risk in most emerging markets. Judicial reform has improved the
quality of justice in the higher courts but there are still significant issues in lower courts
that leave room for abuse by bad faith litigants.
Argentem Creek Partners (ACP) is a SEC registered investment fund focused on special
situations in Emerging Markets. ACP spun out from Cargill’s Black River in 2015 and
since that time one of its markets has been Ukraine where the team invested more than
$600 million in a range of transactions focused on the real economy investments
including agriculture, logistics, metals and mining.
5.7. Risks and Challenges
• Continuation of the War: The main risk that deters investment.
• Economic Instability: High inflation, exchange rate fluctuations,
budget deficit.
• Corruption and the Judicial System: Distrust of the judicial system,
corruption risks.
• Brain Drain: Emigration of qualified specialists, especially from the IT
sector.
• Infrastructure Constraints: Damaged infrastructure, problems with
logistics, energy supply.
• Regulatory Barriers: Complexity of doing business, bureaucracy,
imperfect legislation.
5.8. Opportunities
• Reconstruction of Ukraine: The need to rebuild damaged infrastructure
will create significant demand for investment.
• Technological Potential: Ukraine has a strong IT sector, skilled
personnel, and potential for innovation.
• Agricultural Sector: Agriculture remains a strategically important
sector of the economy.
• Geographical Location: Ukraine has an advantageous geographical
location, making it attractive for the transit of goods and services.
• European Integration: The prospect of joining the EU creates
additional incentives for investors.
Defense-tech: Ukraine is becoming a world leader in the design and
implementation of new military technologies.
5.9. Conclusions and Recommendations
• The Ukrainian investment market has significant potential for recovery
and growth after the end of the war.
• The key sectors for investment will be IT, agriculture, energy,
reconstruction, and Military Tech.
• To attract investment, it is necessary to improve the investment climate,
fight corruption, carry out reforms, ensure the rule of law, and guarantee
security.
• International support (financial, technical, expert) will play an
important role.
• Ukrainian businesses need to adapt to new conditions, seek new
markets and opportunities, and invest in innovation and development.
• State policy should be aimed at stimulating investment, creating
favorable conditions for doing business, supporting export-oriented
industries, and developing human capital.

82
GLOSSARY
AgriTech (Agricultural Technology): The application of technology to agriculture, including
farming practices, crop management, livestock management, and supply chain optimization. This
often involves software, data analytics, drones, sensors, and other advanced tools.
AI (Artificial Intelligence): The simulation of human intelligence processes by machines,
especially computer systems. This includes tasks like learning, reasoning, problem-solving,
perception, and natural language understanding.
Angel Investor: A high-net-worth individual who provides capital for a business start-up, usually
in exchange for convertible debt or ownership equity. They often invest at very early stages.
Asset Purchase: The acquisition of specific assets of a company (e.g., buildings, equipment, land)
rather than the entire company itself.
B2B (Business-to-Business): A business model where a company sells its products or services to
other businesses, rather than directly to consumers.
B2C (Business-to-Consumer): A business model where a company sells its products or services
directly to individual consumers.
Blockchain: A distributed, decentralized, public ledger that records transactions across many
computers. It is the underlying technology for cryptocurrencies, but has many other applications.
Bootstrapping: Starting and growing a business using only the founder's personal savings and
revenue from the business, without external investment.
Cloud Computing: The delivery of computing services (servers, storage, databases, networking,
software, analytics, intelligence) over the Internet ("the cloud").
Crowdfunding: Raising funds from a large number of people, typically via the Internet. This can
be through donations, pre-orders, or in exchange for equity or rewards.
CRM (Customer Relationship Management): A system for managing a company's interactions
with current and potential customers.
Cybersecurity: The practice of protecting computer systems, networks, and data from
unauthorized access, use, disclosure, disruption, modification, or destruction.
Data Science: An interdisciplinary field that uses scientific methods, processes, algorithms, and
systems to extract knowledge and insights from structured and unstructured data.
Deal Flow: The rate at which an investor receives investment proposals or opportunities.
Defense Tech (Military Tech): Technology developed and used for military and defense
purposes. This can include weaponry, communication systems, surveillance equipment, software,
and more.
DevOps: A set of practices that combines software development (Dev) and IT operations (Ops)
to shorten the systems development life cycle and provide continuous delivery with high software
quality.
Digital Transformation: The integration of digital technology into all areas of a business,
fundamentally changing how it operates and delivers value to customers.
Distressed Assets: Assets (companies, properties, etc.) that are being sold at a significantly
reduced price due to financial difficulties or other problems faced by the owner.
Due Diligence: The process of investigating and verifying the financial, legal, and operational
aspects of a company before making an investment or acquisition.
EBITDA (Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, and Amortization): A measure of a
company's operating performance. It is calculated by taking a company's earnings and adding
back interest expenses, taxes, depreciation, and amortization.
E-commerce: The buying and selling of goods and services over the Internet.
EdTech (Educational Technology): The use of technology to enhance teaching and learning.
ERP (Enterprise Resource Planning): A system that integrates various business processes and
functions (e.g., finance, HR, supply chain) into a single platform.
EV (Enterprise Value): A measure of a company's total value, often used as a more
comprehensive alternative to market capitalization. It includes market capitalization, debt,
minority interest, and preferred shares, minus cash and cash equivalents.
Exit (Exit Strategy): The method by which an investor or business owner plans to liquidate their
investment in a company (e.g., through an IPO, sale to a strategic buyer, or management
buyout).
Export Revenue: Revenue generated from the sale of goods or services to foreign countries.
Fintech (Financial Technology): The use of technology to improve and automate financial
services.
FoodTech: The use of technology in the food sector.
FPG (Financial-Industrial Group): A large, diversified holding company that typically controls
businesses in multiple industries. Common in Ukraine and other post-Soviet countries.
Fundraising: The process of seeking and acquiring financial investments for a company or project.
Gamedev (Game Development): The process of creating video games.
Greenfield Investment: A form of foreign direct investment where a parent company starts a new
venture in a foreign country by constructing new operational facilities from the ground up.

83
GLOSSARY
Hardware: The physical components of a computer system or other electronic device.
HoReCa (Hotel, Restaurant, Cafe/Catering): The hotel, restaurant, and catering industry.
IFI (International Financial Institution): An organization established by multiple countries to
provide financing and advice for economic and social development projects (e.g., EBRD, IFC,
World Bank).
IPO (Initial Public Offering): The process of offering shares of a private corporation to the public
in a new stock issuance.
IT (Information Technology): The use of computers, software, and networks to store, process,
and transmit information.
IT Outsource: Outsourcing of work to an external IT services provider.
Lead Investor: The investor who takes the largest stake and often sets the terms in an investment
round.
LLM (Large Language Model): A type of artificial intelligence that can generate text, translate
languages, write different types of creative content, and answer your questions informatively.
M&A (Mergers and Acquisitions): Transactions in which the ownership of companies, other
business organizations, or their operating units are transferred or combined.
Marketplace: An online platform that connects buyers and sellers of goods or services.
Military Tech: Technology developed for use in military or defense applications.
NDA (Non-Disclosure Agreement): A legal contract that obligates parties to keep certain
information confidential.
NPL (Non-Performing Loan): A loan that is in default or close to being in default.
PE (Private Equity): Investment in non-publicly listed companies.
Pitch Deck: A brief presentation, often created using PowerPoint, Keynote, or Prezi, used to
provide an overview of a business plan to potential investors.
Pre-Seed Round: The earliest stage of funding for a startup, typically from angel investors or
friends and family.
Product Company: A company that develops and sells its own software products.
R&D (Research and Development): Activities undertaken to discover new knowledge, develop
new products or processes, or improve existing ones.
Round (Funding Round): A stage of fundraising for a startup.
SaaS (Software as a Service): A software licensing and delivery model in which software is
licensed on a subscription basis and is centrally hosted.
Seed Round: The first official equity funding stage. It typically represents the first official money
that a business venture or enterprise raises.
Series A/B/C: Subsequent rounds of funding for a startup, usually from venture capital firms.
Startup: A young company founded by one or more entrepreneurs to develop a unique product
or service and bring it to market.
Strategic Investor: An investor (often a corporation) that invests in a company for strategic
reasons (e.g., to gain access to new technology, markets, or distribution channels) rather than
purely for financial return.
Term Sheet: A non-binding agreement outlining the basic terms and conditions of an investment.
TMT (Technology, Media and Telecommunications): A grouping of industries.
Unicorn: A privately held startup company valued at over $1 billion.
Valuation: The process of determining the economic worth of a company.
VC (Venture Capital): Financing that investors provide to startup companies and small businesses
that are believed to have long-term growth potential. VC generally comes from well-off investors,
investment banks, and any other financial institutions.
Specific Terms related to the Ukrainian Context:
FOP (ФОП - Фізична особа-підприємець): Individual Entrepreneur - a simplified form of
business registration in Ukraine.
Hryvnia (UAH): The national currency of Ukraine.
Oblast: A region or province in Ukraine.
Rada (Verkhovna Rada): The parliament of Ukraine.
State Property Fund of Ukraine: The government agency responsible for managing and
privatizing state-owned assets.
InVenture: a Ukrainian investment company.
Deposit Guarantee Fund: a fund guaranteeing the return of deposits to individuals

UVCA and its members stand at the forefront of a transformative mission: bridging the gap between innovative entrepreneurs and forward-thinking
investors, and advocating for policies that foster transparency and an investment-friendly environment. As the nation navigates through challenging times,
this mission holds the promise of creating a fertile ground for growth and collaboration.
Despite the obstacles Ukraine faces today, there is an undeniable resilience and determination within the country. These turbulent times, while difficult, are
temporary. They serve as a reminder of the strength required to rebuild and grow.
Once the current challenges disappear, limitless opportunities will emerge. Ukraine is uniquely positioned to become a global hub—a place where
innovators, entrepreneurs, and investors from around the world can come together to collaborate, build, and thrive.
UVCA envisions a future where Ukraine not only recovers but also leads the global investment ecosystem, promoting mutual benefit for all participants.
By fostering trust, promoting transparency, and embracing innovation, Ukraine has the potential to inspire international confidence and establish itself as
a cornerstone of global economic progress.
And, UVCA and its members are not just witnesses to this transformation, they are its active participants, empowering the feeling that Ukraine's bright
future is not just a possibility but an inevitability.
JOIN US!
To contribute to the growth and development of the Ukrainian investment ecosystem, participate in UVCA projects and events, or explore UVCA
membership opportunities, we invite you to contact us:
uvca.eu
ceo@uvca.eu
www.linkedin.com/company/ukrainian-venture-capital-and-private-equity-association-uvca-/

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