The Future of Higher Education in the United States
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The document discusses the transformational changes in higher education due to technological advancements and socio-economic shifts since 2007. Key challenges include rising tuition costs, workforce displacement, the growing significance of adult learners, and the need for flexible education models like micro-credentials. It emphasizes the importance of adapting educational approaches to foster creativity and meet the evolving demands of the job market.
The Future of Higher Education in the United States
- 1. The Future of Higher Education in the United States Alan McKay, PhD Director, Design Innovation Center Shenandoah University August 10, 2018
- 2. What the Hell Happened in 2007? • Facebook went public • Twitter launched • Android launched • Bitcoin launched the Block chain revolution • Kindle launched the e-book revolution • IBM’s Watson was created and launched artificial intelligence • Amazon Cloud Service (AWS) launched (2006) • iPhone launched in partnership with AT&T which led to the rapid expansion of data storage in the cloud • VMware (software translation) launched and vSphere (2009) soon followed permitting one application to run on a variety of platforms, many in the cloud • Hadoop (2011) was launched as an open source programming tool that made data mining across various software platforms a reality • Apple made their operating system open source with led to the explosion of software enabled applications (apps) 2
- 3. In depth research – the changes in 3 months 3
- 4. Introduction • Demographic trends • Disruptive innovations • Changes to the regulatory environment • Workforce displacement • Technological change and the social contract • So, when do you get to the solutions? • Creating a 90 day innovation engine • Marketing to managers, entrepreneurs and professionals 4
- 5. High school graduation rate 2000 - 2032 0 20000 40000 60000 80000 100000 120000 0 500000 1000000 1500000 2000000 2500000 3000000 3500000 4000000 VirginiaGraduates USGraduates National Virginia 5 Source: Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education, Knocking at the College Door: Projections of High School Graduates, 2016, www.wiche.edu/knocking. Great Recession Enrollment drop
- 6. International Graduate Student Applications 2012 – 2017 2% 10% 3% 1% -3%-4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 6 Source: 2017 CGS International Graduate Admissions Survey: final applications, admissions, and enrollment 1/30/18
- 7. Four decades of tuition increases $2,531 $2,340 $3,521 $4,885 $9,970 $10,832 $10,525 $17,237 $22,383 $33,480 $0 $5,000 $10,000 $15,000 $20,000 $25,000 $30,000 $35,000 $40,000 $45,000 $50,000 1970 1980 1990 2000 2017 Tuition and Fees Public Private Source: College Board, Trends in College Pricing, 2017 (https://trends.collegeboard.org/sites/default/files/2017-trends-in-college-pricing_1.pdf) 7
- 8. Private colleges and universities discount rate first-time, full-time freshman 38.0% 38.6% 39.1% 39.9% 41.6% 42.0% 44.3% 44.8% 46.4% 46.9% 48.0% 49.1% 49.9% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2005 - 2018 Public Source: National Association of College and University Business Officers (NACUBO) Tuition Discounting Study (2017) 8
- 9. National fall term enrollment estimates in all for profit colleges 2000 - 2017 450084 527501 594242 711735 880247 1010949 1065871 1186198 1469142 1735154 2022785 1967468 1808423 1656227 1556265 1134974 970267 901331 0 500000 1000000 1500000 2000000 2500000 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Enrollment Students Source: National Center for Education Statistics, Digest of Education Statistics, based upon Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS), Fall Enrollment Survey (IPEDS-EF:86-99); IPEDS Spring 2001 through Fall 2017, Fall Enrollment component (December 2017) https://nscresearchcenter.org/current-term-enrollment- estimates-fall-2017/ 9
- 10. Trend analysis of distance education enrollments (2012 – 2016) 161242 113484 207348 299855 98480 97976 109469 76406 -73577 -27281 -90442 -19245 -150000 -100000 -50000 0 50000 100000 150000 200000 250000 300000 350000 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 . Public Private non-profit Private for-profit 10 Source: Seaman, J., Allen, I.E. & Seaman, J., .Grade Increase: tracking distance education in the United States, Babson Research Group., p. 14 https://onlinelearningsurvey.com/reports/gradeincrease.pdf.
- 11. Changes to the regulatory environment • Elimination of the gainful employment rule • Requirement that all schools and universities provide more data on outcomes (income by major within a school or university) • More restricted borrower defense rule • Proposed new rule on the definition of standard credit hour • Proposed new rule on faculty interaction 11
- 12. Adult learners • Post-traditional learners (over 25 and working) are the new majority in higher education; they currently represent 57.7% of all undergraduates (2011-12) • Characteristics • Women (60%) • Employed (70%) • Family obligations (48%) • Segments • Degree completion (25 – 35) • Career advancement (35 – 45) • Seniors transitioning to retirement (46 and above) • Advanced career fellows program/certificate (65 and above) 12 Source: American Council on Education, The post-traditional learners manifesto revisited p. 11 (http://www.acenet.edu/news-room/Documents/The-Post- Traditional-Learners-Manifesto-Revisited.pdf) (2017)
- 13. Terminology • Learning with technology – the study of facilitating learning and improving performance by creating, using, and managing appropriate technological processes and resources • Learning about technology – the study of technology, in which students learn about the processes and knowledge related to technology • Reskilling –the process of learning new skills so you can do a different job, or of training people to do a different job • Upskilling - the process of learning new skills or of teaching workers new skills so they can remain in their current job or occupation 13
- 14. The relentless pace of automation The next wave of economic dislocations won’t come from overseas. It will come from the relentless pace of automation that makes a lot of middle-class jobs obsolete. President Barack Obama Farewell Address (January 10, 2017) Chicago, IL 14
- 15. Workforce displacement • Economists indicate that the U.S. labor force is reaching full employment of 3.8% from a high of 10% in October 2009 • Labor participation rates have continued to decline (since 1999) despite improvements in unemployment • Economists have suggested that the declining labor participation rate is due, in part, to individuals who lack the skills to compete in the new industrial age • Jobs are not going away, but the needed skills for good jobs are going up1 • McKinsey Global Institute2 has estimated that as many as 375 million workers in the world (14%) may need to switch occupational categories as digitalization, automation, and advances in AI disrupt the world of work 15 1 Friedman, T.L. Thank you for being late, Picador, New York (2016) p.224. 2 Illanes, P., et al., Retraining and reskilling workers in the age of automation (2018)
- 16. 16 Source: Whitehouse, M. & Rojanasakul, M., Find out if your job will be automated, Bloomberg (7/7/17) https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2017-job-risk/
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- 18. Workforce displacement – past and future 1,200,000 800,000 600,000 2,500,000 0 500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000 2,500,000 3,000,000 Agriculture to Industry (1900-1940) Manfacturing (1970-1990) Construction (2007-2010) The Great Transformation (2020-?) Average annual workers displaced 18Source: Rotman, D., Making AI into jobs, MIT Technology Review, p.13 (Jul/Aug 2018)
- 19. Technological Change (2018 – 2020) The “threat” of technological change1 Technological progress is going to leave behind some people, perhaps even a lot of people, as it races ahead. As we’ll demonstrate, there’s never been a better time to be a worker with special skills, or the right education, because these people can use technology to create and capture value. However, there’s never been a worse time to be a worker with only “ordinary” skills and abilities to offer, because computers, robots, and other digital technologies are acquiring these skills, and abilities at an extraordinary rate.1 22% 36% 38% 52% 54% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Cost/complexity Shifting assets from legacy systems Lack of digital skills Resistance to change Organizational structure Barriers 19 1 Brynjolfsson, E. & McAfee, A., The second machine age: work, progress, and prosperity in a time of brilliant technologies, WW. Norton, New York (2016) p. 11 2 Harvard Business Review Analytic Services, Competing in 2020: winners and the losers in the digital economy (4/25/17) https://hbr.org/sponsored/2017/04/competing-in-2020-winners-and-losers-in-the-digital-economy.
- 20. Future of the degree Even the most nimble of universities can’t create full-fledged degree programs flexible enough to keep up with the changing needs of some professions.1 • Creates a case for the issuance of Micro credentials (e.g. digital badges, nanodegrees, micromasters) that are short courses of study focused on the acquisition of knowledge and the mastery of carefully developed competencies • Redefines education as a process of knowledge acquisition, not the amount of hours spent in acquiring the degree • Udacity, who trademarked the term nanodegree in 2015, has partnered with employers such as Google and Mercedes-Benz on short degrees (6-9 months) costing $200/month. More than 13,000 people have enrolled in the program in the first full year of operation • The State of Georgia recently announced that they were asking public institutions of higher learning to create the Nexus degree (a form of micro degree) 20 1 Selingo, J.J., The future of the degree: how colleges can survive the new credential economy, The Chronicle of Higher Education (2017).
- 21. Thomas Friedman and the Age of Acceleration • We are currently in the fourth industrial revolution or that he refers to as the Age of Acceleration. • First industrial revolution – steam and water power substituted for humans • Second industrial revolution – electricity and communications • Third industrial revolution – computers and networks • Fourth industrial revolution – artificial intelligence, machine learning, robotics • Previous industrial revolutions took several lifetimes (e.g. 20 years or more) for the changes to disseminate fully and be replaced by the subsequent wave. • The current revolution began around 2007 and is causing wholesale changes in 7 – 10 years. 21
- 22. Thomas Friedman and the New Social Contract In today’s knowledge-human economy it will be human capital – talent, skills, tacit know-how, empathy, and creativity. These are massive, undervalued human assets to unlock – and our educational institutions and labor markets need to adapt to that. Thomas Friedman Thank you for being late (p.221) 22
- 23. AT&T’s social contract with it’s employees AT&T registers all certificates and degrees earned by employees in company profiles and can easily search them with big data tools when an opening becomes available. To prepare themselves for those opportunities, the company makes the following commitment: • We will give you the platform but you have to opt in • Everyone has a personal learning portal and they can see where the endpoint (job opportunity) is and the courses that will get them there. • You can pick different futures and the courses will get you there if you have the motivation and spend the time. 23 Source: Friedman, T.L., Thank you for being late (page 232-233)
- 24. Alexa – what shall we do next? 24 Source: https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/alexa-what-shall-we-do-next-take-over-the-world-jeff-99hs3bmjv Let’s take over the world Jeff.
- 25. Jeff Bezos, CEO of Amazon It’s not our job worry about fears we’re killing retailers and destroying jobs. I don’t think it’s our job to do anything but try to be really good at what we do. 25 Source: Jeff Bezos is now the world’s richest man. But what price is Amazon’s global domination? The London Times (7/29/18) https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/thesundaytimesmagazine/jeff-bezos-is-now-the-worlds-richest-man-but-what-price-is-amazons-global-domination-h65k78dml
- 26. Soooo how does Shenandoah University compete in this new world? Think big, start small, scale quickly Jim Carroll 26
- 27. Potential target markets • Degree completion • Career advancement • Upskilling technology workers • Mid-career entrepreneurs • Recent retirees • Virtual reality • Data analytics, machine learning, artificial intelligence • Developing soft skills (empathy, communication, critical thinking) • Integrated supply chain management (e.g. e-commerce) 27
- 28. Strategy for competing online 1. Conduct gap analysis (a.k.a. needs assessment) of our recent graduates 2. Develop initial list of no more than three (3) target markets (students, employers, technology) 3. Create a robust and flexible learning environment that supports group collaboration, immersive learning, and works on a variety of digital platforms 4. Develop a digital marketing strategy; use Guerrilla Marketing as needed 5. Charge a small, highly focused team to develop a beta version (instructional designer, research assistant, coordinator and content experts) 6. Create a shared space where the team(s) can work (e.g. Armory) 7. Roll out the beta version in three (3) months;1 use data analytics to monitor student progress and to document problem areas. 28 1. Anthony, S.D., Duncan, D.S. and Siren, P.M.A., Build an innovation engine in 90 days, HBR (Dec 2014)
- 29. Practical example Most studies of the impact of automation and artificial intelligence point to a cluster of soft skills that can help to distinguish a successful career path from one that is in jeopardy. These are also the skills employers say are most important in addressing the skills gap. Form a team of faculty and staff from the Conservatory and the Harry F. Byrd Business School to create an Transformational Leadership Certificate. One version of this executive learning experience would be focused on the Introverted Leadership Style.1 29 1. Inam, H., The good news for introverted leaders, Forbes (5/15/18) https://www.forbes.com/sites/hennainam/2018/04/15/the-good-news-for-introverted- leaders/#575c46df192f.
- 30. Growing number of professional certifications • Leadership and management • Risk management • International Association of Computer Investigative Specialists (IACIS) certification (cybersecurity and forensics) • Project management professional • Digital marketing • International business management • Microsoft certified professional • Data integration (data analytics) • Google AR & VR • Emotional intelligence • Integrated supply chain and ecommerce 30
- 31. Components of restructuring • Technology • Consumerism – • Education on demand • Career acceleration • Corporate partnerships • Commitment to life-long learning • Innovation in teaching and learning • Increasing numbers of part-time faculty • Creating new learning paradigms • Future of the degree 31
- 32. Making a successful pitch 32
- 33. Embracing the future Machines are getting better at what they do – retrieve and present information in a variety of formats, quicker and with more precision than humans. Educating humans to retrieve information is a failed enterprise. Humans need to be educated to use information provided by machines to produce creative and unique solutions. Machines follow rules to provide answers. Humans break the rules in finding creative solutions. Higher education must become a lifelong effort to create a generation of creative thinkers. Shenandoah University should focus its time and efforts on developing leaders who can lead teams and solve problems. We should develop educational strategies in all fields that foster critical thinking and evaluations that measure it. Whatever the field or profession, the most important work that human beings perform will be its creative work. That is why our education should teach us how to do it well. Joseph Aoun Robot-Proof: higher education in the age of artificial intelligence (2017) President of Northeastern University 33