The Future of Mobility - On the Road to Driverless Cars

IPSOS VIEWS #12
October 2017
The Future of Mobility
On the road to driverless cars
Peter Otto

2
1. The German Association of the Automotive Industry (VDA) published: “German manufacturers and suppliers are ready to facilitate vehicles with initial automated systems
from 2018 onwards.” Autonomous vehicles, with cars capable of driving themselves in all, or nearly all, situations predicted to first hit the market between 2021 and
2025 http://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-autos-autonomous-idUSKCN12Q0OZ
‘Disruptive driving’ (driverless cars and connectivity),
‘electrification’ (battery electric vehicles) and ‘shared
mobility’ (car sharing and ride hailing) are the three
key trends which could reshape the whole automotive
landscape. But how will consumers react towards all
these concepts of future mobility?
In this article, we want to focus on disruptive driving.
To start, we would therefore like to define ‘disruptive’
technology as technology which changes everything
about the way in which something happens – and the
removal of human control from vehicles is probably the
biggest single change since the motor car replaced the
horse and carriage.
Cars haven’t changed too much over the last few
decades, but the automotive industry is well on its way
towards a new era.
The latest technology enables more relaxed driving on
motorways or in dense city traffic, and assisted parking.
Nevertheless, today’s driver must still concentrate on
the driving environment to remain safe.
While some consumers still aren’t truly convinced that
driverless cars could be a reality soon, the industry has
defined a clear roadmap towards fully automated driving
(see Figure 1) under all conditions with no humans
needed inside the car. Highly Automated Cars aren’t on
the road yet, but it is predicted that such vehicles will be
on the road within 5-10 years1
.
Introduction The key trends
Figure 1

3
How accurate these predictions of driverless cars
are remain to be seen. In the meantime, Ipsos has
interviewed more than 130,000 car owners from nine
countries to find out more about:
• attitudes to automated driving;
• how it could affect the vehicles;
• who is most likely to want it;
• who will be the most trusted technology provider;
and
• concerns about the concept.
To measure the future success of new technologies
and business models, we will need to connect the key
trends. While electrification and shared mobility are
not discussed here, we will soon see concepts arising
that merge those trends into a single mobility concept.
For example:
• battery powered self-driving micro buses, which
will pick-up passengers individually after clicking a
button on an app; and
• despite some driving enthusiasts having difficulties
imagining ‘Fahrvergnügen’ – enjoyment of driving
– in self-driving vehicles, even privately owned
passenger cars will be equipped with future mobility
features which could make our life easier.
All these new trends and exciting model launches
will slowly be recognised by consumers and their
preferences will continuously change over the coming
years.
“In this instance,
a ‘disruptive’
technology is
one which changes
everything
about the way
in which something
happens”

4
As part of the survey, we evaluated the interest and
payment acceptance of some future mobility services.
As illustrated in Figure 2, these have been ranked by
disruption levels, from a low level of disruption like an
emergency button in the car, to a high level of disruption
such as fully automatic parking, which allows the
passenger to leave the car while the car parks by itself
somewhere nearby. ‘Fully Autonomous Driving’ is just
one of many potential services and features that disrupt
current driving ‘normality’.
We evaluated sixteen future car services (across
different disruption levels) and found out that Fully
Autonomous Driving (20%), Emergency Service (17%)
and Traffic Prediction (10%) are considered to be the
most important mobility features for the future.
Disruptive driving
Figure 2
LevelofDisruption
Emergency Service – pressing a button for help in case of crime/emergency assistance both in/outside the car
Check car location – e.g. Anti-Theft application/Alarm Tracking (incl. automatically speed reduction of stolen cars)
Connected Drivers’ Preference (seat/steering wheel setting, desired temperature, playlists, interior lighting, etc.)
Automated Car-to-Car Communication - preventing collisions, traffic density, early detection of congestions
Sending an Identification Signal e.g. for In-Car delivery (Amazon will deliver parcels into the car while parking)
Advanced Drive Assist Systems (e.g. active lane assist, adaptive cruise-control with stop go for city or highways)
Predicting the traffic - connecting real-time and predicted/future data to realising traffic jams before they arise
Connected Route Service - based on driver’s preference based on real-time information (like opening hours)
Smart Refilling/Recharging - Monitoring the cheapest gas/recharging stations and automated refill
Search for Nearby Parking Lots - Navigation system is indicating currently available parking lots
Connected Homes/Daily Life Management (e.g. control of lights, thermostats or refilling the fridge while driving)
Tele Diagnostic - car data (e.g. oil level, tyre pressure) will be send for diagnosis or remote services via web access
Fully Autonomous Driving – no need to touch the steering wheel, cars drive the whole trip fully autonomous
Mobile Living room - Fully Autonomous cars can be used as a second mobile room, to work, take a nap etc.
Mobile Health Management - In-Car health monitoring self-driving will be activated in case of emergency
Fully Automated Parking - passengers will be able to leave the car and car will park fully automated and pick-up passengers afterwards
LOWHIGH

5
The concept of the driverless car brings both questions
and opportunities. Will it improve road safety and
reduce the incidence of traffic jams and accidents? And
while we’re being driven around by this ‘computer on
wheels’, will our cars become a mobile device in the
‘Internet of things’?
Just the mere act of being driven will free up our time
and opens the door to a whole new world of activities
for car travel. In Figure 3, we can see by region how
people envision spending an hour in a car in which they
are being driven in a fully automated car.
Fully automated
driving
Activities while driving fully automated
Asia America Europe
Sleep / take a nap 10 min 6 min 5 min
Work, write mails and business communication 5 min 5 min 5 min
Communicate privately (directly or via phone/e-mail/messenger/video) 15 min 14 min 17 min
Relax by reading (books/online news feeds, etc.) 4 min 5 min 5 min
Relax by watching movies/videos/TV-series/playing games 8 min 6 min 5 min
Online shopping 2 min 2 min 1 min
Still pay attention to the road 16 min 22 min 22 min
60 min
Such a change in behaviour while travelling will most
likely lead to very different interior concepts.
Traditional car interiors with two seats in the front and
two or three in the back, all pointing towards the front,
may soon be discarded as a concept. As there won’t be
any drivers, everyone in the vehicle will be a passenger
and therefore can relax as passengers currently do.
In the future, front and rear seats could be folded into
lying positions, or seats could be turnable by 360°, or
combined into sofas. It’s an exciting time for interior
designers of cars, and customer understanding will be
key in predicting the most successful concepts of the
future.
Figure 3

6
Younger consumers (below 35 years old) are more open
and interested in new features such as connectivity and
autonomous driving services, while older consumers
(above 50 years old) are more reserved.
A second differentiation factor is the place of residence.
Consumers living in smaller cities (rural and thinly
populated areas) show a lower interest in future mobility
services, while residents in mega and big cities are
more interested.
The key target group with the highest interest is therefore
young urban consumers.
Themobilityindustryfullyunderstandsthattechnological
developments are fundamental. On the other hand,
new services and future features must be accepted by
consumers and that is far more complicated than just
focusing on these young urban consumers.
Who is it for?
Fully Autonomous Driving
(normalised per country, differences to average displayed) Figure 4
highlow
high
Willingnesstopay
Interest

7
For these mobility providers, it is essential to have a
precise understanding of the various vehicle segments
(by size and body types, makes and brand categories),
as well as the relevant regions.
Interest differs a lot by region. Across the globe, fully
automated driving functions are perceived as the
most interesting development.
The survey data implies that self-driving cars will
be welcomed in Asia (especially in Japan), while
consumers in Northern Europe (particularly those in
France and Germany) remain very critical towards this
new technology.
While Figure 4 appears to show that the Japanese
overall would be more interested in fully automated
driving features, this doesn’t show the whole picture, as
interest and acceptance varies a lot by service.
As we saw in Figure 3, Asian consumers seem
to trust self-driving cars the most, as reflected in
their plans to nap for 10 minutes in an hour-long
journey – nearly twice as long as their European and
American compatriots.
The global development of future mobility will
always need to take local needs and requirements
into account.

8
If consumers assume that their car in 2023 would
have fully automated driving functions, which they
could switch on and off as they like, less than 15%
anticipate always using this function. More than a
third intend to not use self-driving functions at all.
The highest predicted refusal of driving fully
automated is recorded in Germany, France and the
UK, where we see a lack of interest from 45-50% of
people. This high refusal rate could be driven by a
distrust in new technology, which is reflected in the
wish to continuously pay full attention to the traffic
– an understandable position given the current
situation.
But even if we assume that the distrust in self-driving
technologies will dissipate the longer they have
been successfully proven in the market, there will
still be various barriers, which the industry needs to
overcome.
One of these will likely be the concerns about data
protection and privacy.
Governments, authorities and vehicle producers
are discussing regulations for how long the route-
tracking information will be stored inside the
automotive ‘black box’. Some consumers see the
access and storage of ‘their’ individual movement
patterns quite critical. In almost all countries, there
is a high concern (from 40-60%) regarding such
data security issues.
Concerned consumers are significantly less
interested in self-driving cars than consumers who
don’t see privacy issues. A quarter of consumers
(26%), with low or no privacy concerns, rate fully
autonomous driving functions as the most preferred
(top 3) future mobility feature. However, 17% of
consumers who are afraid to give access to their
movement data, are significantly less interested in
self-driving cars.
Besides the human dislike of sharing too much
personal data, there are other barriers, such as the
incidence of car sickness when not paying close
attention to the road.
There are many technical questions the engineers
are currently trying to solve, and there will be many
more questions related to consumer understanding
which need to be explored more deeply over the
coming years.
Concerns

9
It is not only the traditional car industry that is working to
reshape the future of mobility. Completely new players
are pushing their way into this field, and thus there are
serious worries about being the next Nokia. Will car
producers die out? Will OEMs fade from emotional
brands to unbranded component suppliers? Or will
they be able to steer the future of mobility themselves?
Google,AppleandSamsungareexamplesoftechnology
companies that might agree that cars are the ultimate
mobile device. In addition to the tech companies who
are engaging with their own mobility projects, there are
tech suppliers, like Intel-Mobileye, NVIDIA and Microsoft
who are in close cooperation with the traditional vehicle
industry in supporting autonomous driving and other
Who will provide the future of mobility?
cloud-based services. The traditional automotive
suppliers, like BOSCH, Delphi or ZF, on the other hand,
are fully involved in the roadmap towards future mobility.
Beside car producers and tech companies, many
other industry sectors are active in the space of future
mobility. Public transport providers, energy companies,
car rental, car sharing and ride sharing companies are
all fighting for their share of this fast-growing market.
It’s not the case that most consumers believe that the
emergingwesterncarmanufacturers,whowerefounded
in the 21st century, such as Tesla, will necessarily be
trusted most. While two out of ten consumers in global
key markets do trust companies like Tesla, almost 80%
Figure 5
Leader in Autonomous Driving

10
Conclusion
Method: In wave 1 Ipsos interviewed more than 130,000 car owners across nine countries, in the Americas
(USA, Brazil), in Europe (France, Germany, UK, Italy and Spain) as well in Asia (China and Japan). Interviews
were conducted online in January and analysed in April and May 2017. All results are weighted by net
population and size of car parks.
This paper is the first in a series of three on future mobility.
For more information on this survey, please contact FutureMobility@ipsos.com
of consumers still see traditional car manufacturers
who have a long history, as the trusted leaders of future
mobility.
However, when asking consumers explicitly which
company they consider as leader in autonomous
driving, we receive interesting insights (Figure 5). While
Toyota (23%), Tesla (22%) and BMW (20%) are viewed
as being the three leading players in the realm of self-
driving cars, they are followed by the two large tech
companies Google (17%) Apple (16%), before other
large traditional OEMs like the Volkswagen-Group (15%).
Of course, this ranking does not match the real level
of leadership in autonomous technologies, as experts
might see it, but this is the reality on how consumers
rank the competition in the field of self-driving cars
globally.
And perhaps it’s not surprising, that consumer
perception varies greatly by country. While Japanese
consumers are fully convinced that their Japanese
OEMs are leading the way (Toyota 61%, Nissan 38%,
Honda 21%), a large amount of Germans believe that
the German car industry must be the leader in self-
driving cars, and French consumers show a significant
higher trust for their French car industry.
It will be interesting to see how these perceptions
change over time. On a quarterly basis, we will monitor
which companies are perceived leaders in the area of
autonomous driving. We will also track how the interest
towards connectivity and self-driving functions will
evolve. Will the trust in these new technologies increase
as soon as consumers experience self-driving functions
on their own? How will the upcoming model launches
and accompanying communication influence the
consumer acceptance? And how will the new trends
impact interest in owning a car?
Future mobility has a big aim: the democratisation of
mobility. Soon, the elderly may be able to maintain
their mobility, even when poor eyesight may not
allow traditional driving. The blind will also be able to
enjoy spontaneous trips without any support needed
and even secure end-to-end children transportation
services might appear. Not only will driving licences be
redundant for passive riders, but self-driving will have
many other implications, the scope of which we can
barely begin to fathom.
We are on the edge of a new mobility era and total
customer understanding will be key in making this a
success.

The Ipsos Views white papers
are produced by the Ipsos
Knowledge Centre.
www.ipsos.com
@_Ipsos
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At Ipsos we are passionately curious about people,
markets, brands and society. We make our changing
world easier and faster to navigate and inspire
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Peter Otto
Chief Client Director, Automotive,
Ipsos Global Partnering

The Future of Mobility - On the Road to Driverless Cars

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