The global livestock sector: Opportunities and challenges
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The global livestock sector faces many challenges in sustainably meeting the growing demand for food while balancing trade-offs between efficiency, livelihoods, and the environment. Key issues include climate change, water and land scarcity, disease risks, and debates around large versus small-scale production systems. Addressing these complex challenges will require reliable assessments of hard trade-offs and achieving equity across scales from local to global.
The global livestock sector: Opportunities and challenges
- 1. The Global Livestock Sector Production systems for the future: Opportunities and Challenges balancing trade-offs between food production, efficiency, livelihoods and the environment Jimmy Smith (ILRI) M. Herrero and P.K. Thornton WCCA/Nairobi Forum Presentation ILRI-World Bank High Level Consultation on the Global st Livestock Agenda by 2020 21 September 2010 | ILRI, Nairobi Nairobi, 12- 13 March 2012
- 2. Overview The big picture–global drivers and trends • Feeding the world • Price fluctuations • Population and urbanization • Poverty Trends in the global livestock sector • Consumption • Food production • Trade Pressing issues in the global livestock sector • Climate change • Water • Land • Human and animal diseases • Over consumption Challenging issues–divergent views
- 3. The big picture – global drivers and trends
- 4. Feeding the world 2.5 billion more 1 billion hungry today to feed by 2050 ? FAO: SOFA2011
- 5. Additional food needed 1 billion tonnes of additional cereal grains to 2050 to meet food and feed demands (IAASTD 2009) Additional grains 1048 million tonnes more to 2050 Human Livestock consumption 430 million MT Monogastrics mostly 458 million MT Biofuels 160 million MT
- 6. Volatile prices Impacts on livestock sector and the poor? Blip or emerging trend? FAO: SOFA2011
- 7. A growing–and urbanizing– population Photo by NYT
- 8. Population growth by region 1750−2050
- 9. Urbanization Source: Economist
- 10. Changes in global poverty indicators % of population living on less than $1.25/day • 1990−41.7% • 2005−25.2% Millions of people living on less than $1.25/day • 1990−1,818 • 2005−1,374 http://povertydata.worldbank.org/poverty/home/
- 11. Percent of population living on less than US$1.25/day−2010 > 80 60−80 40−60 20−40 < 20 11 http://povertydata.worldbank.org/poverty/home no data
- 12. Trends in the global livestock sector
- 13. Consumption of livestock products Consumption continues to rise with income and urbanization Significant global differences in kilocalorie consumption Highest rates of increase are in the developing world Livestock products contribute: 17% of global kilocalorie consumption 33% of global protein consumption (FAOSTAT 2008) Livestock provide food for at least 830 million food-insecure people (Gerber et al. 2007)
- 14. Projected global consumption in 2050 Annual per capita Total consumption consumption Year Meat Milk (kg) Meat Milk (Mt) (kg) (Mt) Developing 2002 28 44 137 222 countries 2050 44 78 326 585 Developed 2002 78 202 102 265 countries 2050 94 216 126 295 Source: Rosegrant et al 2009
- 15. Global value of production of all livestock products Herrero et al. 2011
- 16. Where does the world’s food come from? Herrero et al. 2009
- 17. Growing trade in livestock commodities– with impacts also at local level FAO: SOFA 2009
- 18. Pressing global issues in the livestock sector ILRI Spearheading a New Way Forward
- 19. Climate change What will happen to feed resources? diseases? productivity? Average projected % change in suitability for 50 crops to 2050 Courtesy of Andy Jarvis
- 20. Global greenhouse gas efficiency per kg of animal protein produced Large inefficiencies in the developing world– an opportunity? Herrero et al PNAS (forthcoming)
- 21. A global water crisis 2 billion people lack access Demand is growing; freshwater is getting scarcer 70% of total freshwater use is for agriculture, of which 31% is for livestock
- 22. Livestock and land use Land use • 3.4 billion hectares (about 26% of emerged lands) • low intensity in developing countries but growing in Latin America (this accounts for 80% of deforestation in LAC) • marginal land frontier exhausted • 20% of rangelands are degraded (higher in the dry lands) Extent of feed-crops • 470 million hectares (about 33% of arable land) • cereals: production growth mainly based on intensification / regional distribution of crops • soybean: production growth based on expansion in a limited number of countries (20% of deforestation in the neotropics) 22 Steinfeld et al 2006
- 23. What role for rangelands? • Largest land use system • Increasingly fragmented • Potentially a large C sink • PES: important source of income diversification • Difficulties in: Measuring and monitoring C stocks Establishment of payment schemes Dealing with mobile pastoralists Potential for carbon sequestration in rangelands (Conant and Paustian 2002)
- 25. Livestock and human disease Animal source foods are the biggest contributor to food-borne disease Diseases transmitted from livestock and livestock products kill more people each year than HIV or malaria One new human disease emerges every 2 months− 20% of these from livestock (Jones et al., 2008)
- 26. Projected global consumption in 2050 Enough? Annual per capita Total consumption consumption Year Meat Milk Meat Milk (kg) (kg) (Mt) (Mt) Developing 2002 28 44 137 222 2050 44 78 326 585 Developed 2002 78 202 102 265 2050 94 216 126 295 Source: Rosegrant et al. 2009 Too much?
- 27. Animal welfare?
- 28. Challenging issues – divergent views ILRI Spearheading a New Way Forward
- 29. Large or small farms? Land consolidation vs growth and intensification of the smallholder sector Large commercial farms pro-efficiency (foreign capital investment) Smallholder development possibly more pro-poor Smallholders: Low opportunity cost of labour Do diversified smallholder farms promote biodiversity and better management of ecosystems services? Smallholder sector fragmented: What actors are needed to support it? Trajectory of change?
- 30. Supermarkets or informal sector? ‘Supermarket revolution’ took off in 1990s Increases in market share vary around the world General features • Impacts the rich first • Vertical integration of food markets • Threat to smallholder participation Effects not same for all products • First in processed foods (flour, oil, condiments) • Last in fresh foods (meat, dairy, fruits and veg) Informal milk market ILRI/Mann 80% in India
- 31. Trade-offs: Environment−livelihoods Use of biomass– for soil or feed (or fuel) Reduction of animal numbers– implications for livelihoods Producing with smaller environmental footprint
- 32. To eat or not to eat . . . meat, milk and fish 1 billion 2 billion undernourished overweight
- 33. Main messages The big picture • Feeding the world is possible • Sustaining the natural resource base is possible • Reducing absolute poverty is possible Trends • Demand for livestock products continues to rise • Livestock systems producing much of the World’s food • Vast divide between regions and countries but increasingly interconnected Pressing issues • Livestock impact on all global development issues • Need for reliable evidence-based assessments of hard trade-offs Challenging issues • Organization within the sector • Managing trade offs at multiple scales • Achieving equity
Editor's Notes
- #5: FAO measure of undernutrition is based on energy only. IFPRI estimates that currently 2 billion people are undernourished using a definition that includes lack of calories as well as protein and micro nutrients.