Trends Spotting Strategic foresight for tomorrow’s education systems - Deborah Nusche- 5 June 2025
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Deborah Nusche, Senior Analyst, OECD presents at the OECD webinar 'Trends Spotting: Strategic foresight for tomorrow’s education systems' on 5 June 2025. You can check out the webinar on the website https://oecdedutoday.com/webinars/ Other speakers included: Deborah Nusche, Senior Analyst, OECD Sophie Howe, Future Governance Adviser at the School of International Futures, first Future Generations Commissioner for Wales (2016-2023) Davina Marie, Interdisciplinary Lead, Queens College London Thomas Jørgensen, Director for Policy Coordination and Foresight at European University Association
Trends Spotting Strategic foresight for tomorrow’s education systems - Deborah Nusche- 5 June 2025
- 1. Trends Spotting: Strategic Foresight for Tomorrow’s Education Systems OECD Education and Skills Webinar Series Deborah Nusche, Senior Analyst, Trends Shaping Education 5 June 2025 OECD Directorate for Education and Skills
- 2. Restricted Use - À usage restreint Why focus on the long term? Exponential pace of change requires preparing for world of constant disruption Recent shocks have increased interest among education stakeholders Considering the bigger picture to envision and plan for desirable futures TSE 2008 TSE 2010 TSE 2013 TSE 2016 TSE 2019 TSE 2022 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 70000 80000 90000 100000 6.7K 11.1K 25.7K 35.9K 53.1K 97.2K
- 3. Restricted Use - À usage restreint Supporting long-term strategic thinking in education Implications for education Societal shifts Trends analysis Plausible futures Futures thinking
- 4. Restricted Use - À usage restreint What is strategic foresight? A structured approach to considering ideas about the future to make better decisions today Horizon scanning Scenario building Futures wheel Stress- testing Helps us question implicit assumptions and reframe our strategic choices Does NOT aim to predict the future
- 5. Restricted Use - À usage restreint Trends Shaping Education 2025: Key messages Available online: scan the QR code or download from: https://doi.org/10.1787/ee6587fd-en
- 6. Restricted Use - À usage restreint 6 Trends Shaping Education 2025
- 7. Restricted Use - À usage restreint 7 Main themes Global conflict and cooperation Work and progress Voices and storytelling Bodies and minds Armed conflict and international migration; global trade and energy security; climate change, green tech and science cooperation. Changing labour markets and opportunities for young people; socio-economic and gender equality; our digital and sustainable lives. Democracy and diverse voices; polarisation, populism and fake news; digital discourse and connected devices. Mental health and addictions; environmental health threats and fertility; disability, medical technology and care work. Cross-cutting themes: technology, sustainability and (in)equality Trends Shaping Education 2025
- 8. Restricted Use - À usage restreint Global conflict and cooperation State-based armed conflict by type, worldwide (1946-2022) Figure 2.1 1946 1948 1950 1952 1954 1956 1958 1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Extrasystemic Inter-state Internationalised intra-state Intra-state Number of active conflicts
- 9. The return of international migration A. Permanent-type labour migration ; B. New asylum applications, OECD countries (2013-2022) Figure 2.3 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 0 200000 400000 600000 800000 1000000 1200000 1400000 A. Labour migration 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 0 500000 1000000 1500000 2000000 2500000 B. New asylum applications
- 10. Global trade slowing, restrictions rising Average global trade as a share of GDP; global trade restrictions (2009-2022) Figure 2.5 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 Average global exports and imports/GDP (left axis) Harmful trade interventions (right axis) % Count of interventions
- 11. Restricted Use - À usage restreint Work and Progress Average annual hours worked per worker (left axis); Percent of workers working 50 hours a week or longer, by age group (right axis), OECD average, 1988-2023 Figure 3.4 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 1650 1700 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 Annual hours worked per worker 25 to 29 years 30 to 34 years 35 to 39 years 40 to 44 years 45 to 49 years 50 to 54 years Annual hours worked per worker % of workers working long hours
- 12. Restricted Use - À usage restreint Employment in clean energy surpasses employment in fossil fuels Total employment by energy sector, worldwide (2019-2023) 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 Clean energy Fossil fuels Million workers
- 13. AI skills are more common and demand for AI labour is rising Share of LinkedIn users who are AI talents across 30 countries, by gender; Share of job postings demanding AI skills across 14 countries (2016-2023) Figure 3.1 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0.0% 0.2% 0.4% 0.6% 0.8% 1.0% 1.2% 1.4% AI talent concentration - Female AI talent concentration - Male AI job postings (% of all job postings) Share of users / postings
- 14. Restricted Use - À usage restreint Voices and storytelling Voter turnout in parliamentary elections by world region (1960-2023) Figure 4.1 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 Africa Americas Asia Europe Oceania Global %
- 15. We shall overcome Major protests by grievance/demand, worldwide (2006-2020) Figure 4.2 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 Economic Justice and Anti-austerity Failure of Political Representation Global Justice Civil rights Count of major protests
- 16. Creative differences Share of individuals who have used the Internet to upload self-created content in the past three months, OECD-23 average (2008-2023) Figure 4.10 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 High level of educational attainment All 16-74-year-olds Low level of educational attainment %
- 17. Restricted Use - À usage restreint 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Cancer Stress Obesity Drug abuse Coronavirus Mental health % of respondents Bodies and minds Biggest health problem according to survey respondents across 31 countries (2018-2024) Figure 5.1
- 18. Restricted Use - À usage restreint AI is boosting medical technologies Number of AI medical devices approved by the United States Food and Drug Administration (2012-2022) Figure 5.10 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 Number of AI medical devices
- 19. Restricted Use - À usage restreint With only minor progress, women bear the brunt of unpaid care and domestic work Percentage of time spent on unpaid care and domestic work by sex, estimates of global average (2015-2023) Figure 5.12 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 Gap Female Male % of a 24-hour day
- 20. And education?
- 22. Restricted Use - À usage restreint Future Scenarios
- 23. Restricted Use - À usage restreint Example scenarios: Global conflict and co-operation – in the future
- 24. Restricted Use - À usage restreint Example scenarios: Global conflict and co-operation – in the future
- 25. Restricted Use - À usage restreint Example scenarios: Global conflict and co-operation – in the future
- 26. Restricted Use - À usage restreint Priya, advisor, Ministry of Education Gabriel, parent and part-time student Eva, university professor Elias, 14-year- old student Mina, early childhood director Daniel, school teacher Co-creating the future of education Which elements of the three futures are the most probable? What changes could we make now to seize opportunities and manage risks? Which elements are most desirable? What changes could we make in education now to move towards this future? Which elements are least desirable? What changes could we make in education now to prevent them?
Editor's Notes
- #20: .