Us policy economic_sfif_pres_jun_9_ver2
- 1. Commercial Real Estate Economics, Values and Mortgage Trends 2009 - 2010 Prepared for San Francisco Investment Forum (SFIF) Prepared by Lawrence Souza, CRE/RICS/CCIM www.the-commercial-group.com - Principal - Real Estate-Financial Economist / Advisor / Broker Johnson Souza Group, Inc. - Professor – Real Estate/Finance Golden Gate University Holme Roberts & Owen LLP 560 Mission Street, 25th Floor San Francisco, CA 94105 Tue 06/9/09
- 2. Johnson Souza Group, Inc • Over 20 years of real estate economic and financial research, and institutional due diligence underwriting. Specializes in apartment and commercial market research, valuation and brokerage services. • Offering tax deferred vehicles: 1031 Exchanges, Tenants in Common (TIC), Deferred Sales Trusts (DST), etc.; and real estate related investments: partnerships, funds, REITs, etc. Contact Information: www.the-commercial-group.com [email protected] Cell Direct: (415) 713-0213 Fax: (415) 826-2216
- 6. Business-Market Cycle Forecast • Economy in decline/trough phase: employment contraction decelerating (36-to-60 month trough); worst case 7 year trough, 7 year stagnation. • Next 12-to-24 months: Cap Rates up +200 bps, NOIs down 16%-to- 20%, sales volumes down 75%-to-95%, values down 30%-to-50%, construction down 18%, rising defaults and delinquencies. • Business-commercial real estate cycle: slow recovery 2010 – 2013, growth 2014 – 2015 (rent/value spikes) and peak 2016 – 2018. • Target markets for commercial investment 2009-2010: Urban-Infill/Supply-Constrained/Transit Oriented/Diverse-Growth Economic Base Submarkets Downtown San Francisco/San Jose; I-680/880 Corridors- Walnut Creek/San Ramon (Pleasanton/Fremont); SF Peninsula-Redwood City/Palo Alto (Marin/Santa Cruz)
- 7. Commercial Real Estate Markets • SF Office Rents down 24% -to- 35%, most since 2001 • SF Office Vacancy Rate 13% -to-18% (Colliers Inter.) – 1.1 million SF vacated since Jan 2008 – 6 million SF up for renewal • PG&E 80,000 sf (123 Mission Street) • Charles Schwab (2Q09) • Macy’s 500,000 sf • 75% Class A office buildings downtown sold past 4 yrs – Buildings in Default (Real Capital Analytics): • 2135 Market (Lembi – One of 29) • 2712 Mission (Trustees Sale) – Potential Default: Broadway Partners (Citicorp Center, Once Sansome, 100 Cal., 50 Beale), 333 Bush (Hines/Sterling American Prop)
- 8. Commercial Demand (Economic Base) Target Geographies-Submarkets by Industry Sector: • High-tech and Bio-tech Manufacturing (SF/Oak) • Alternative and Clean Energy Technologies (SF/SJ) • Healthcare-Information Systems Services (SF/SJ/Sac) • Financial Services and Venture Capital (SF/SM) • Telecommunications/Networking (SJ) • Multimedia and Entertainment (SF/Marin) • Internet and Software Programming (SF/SJ/Oak) • International Trade and Tourism (SF/SJ/Sac) • Construction and Engineering Services (SF/SJ/Sac) • Education and Government Services (SF/SJ/Oak/Sac) • Defense (SJ/Sac)
- 9. US Budget Deficits • $11 trillion public debt outstanding, $55 billion in interest; Total Debt-to-GDP to reach ~100% by 2015 Crowding Out Effect ~ High Inflation Expectations and Interest Rates ~ Fiscal/Monetary Policy Ineffectiveness • $1.8 trillion annual budget deficit, $850 billion for Iraq/Afghanistan Wars 01–09’; defense budget up 41% since 2001 • Administration to cut deficit in half by 2009, over optimistic assumptions for rising tax revenue, excluding cost of Iraq/Afghanistan wars ($83 + billion in 2009) • Fed spent $300 billion over 6 mths to buy L-T T-Bills/Bonds, total $1.2 trillion, already has $2 trillion on balance sheet • Budget deficits to total $10 trillion over next 10 years. • Foreigners currently own 47% of U.S. government debt (China/Japan)
- 10. US Treasury Borrowing Money Printed by Federal Reserve • $789 billion - Economic stimulus package • $280 billion - Freddie Mac/Fannie Mae (Judicial Watch/FHFA) • $200 billion - Carry-over budget from 2008 • $750 billion - Troubled Assets Relief Program (TARP) • $160 billion - GW Bush stimulus tax rebates • $150 billion – AIG bailout (US 80% ownership) • $50 billion – Loan to GM (US 60% ownership) • $2.0 trillion – Federal Reserve balance sheet up from $870 billion • $3.13 trillion – Tot. Money Supply Printed less than 9 months • $8.3 trillion – Total Money Supply in Economy (Up 40% YOY) Risks: Federal Reserve Independence, Credibility and Effectiveness ~ government default, foreign policy, tax and inflation, capital market, accounting, private property rights, and social welfare. Source: Tom Campbell, “Stimulating Inflation?; San Francisco Chronicle, 2009.
- 11. Change in Net Worth Trade balance roughly zero from 1960 ORTH 1981, fell to CHANGE IN NET W through (end of year to end of year) -173 billion as of October 2007. Past 5 years, Baby Boomers 45-54 years old saw net $ 8,0 00 .0 $ 6,0 00 .0 worth drop 45%. 1/5th of this lose from home equity. $ 4,0 00 .0 Increasing probability of a $ 2,0 00 .0 international financial crisis. $0 .0 -$ 2,0 00 .0 -$ 4,0 00 .0 International Monetary Fund: worldwide -$ 6,0 00 .0 financial institutions could suffer more than $4 -$ 8,0 00 .0 -$ 1 0,0 00 .0 Faster ratesin capital accumulation due to credit crisis, U.S. trillion of losses from the global foreign direct investment in manufacturing $2.7 trillion. leading way with total of -$ 1 2,0 00 .0 production, services, and technology sectors. -$ 1 4,0 00 .0 96 97 00 07 98 99 01 02 03 04 05 06 08 19 19 19 20 20 20 19 20 20 20 20 20 20 Martin Wolf, Associate Editor & Chief Economics Commentator, Financial Times; Center for Economic and Policy Research
- 12. Income and Wages Average Hourly Earnings of Production Workers Median Weekly Pay: Women 79% of Men, Blacks/Hispanic 68% White/Asian, High School 54% of College Grads Zero Real Wage Growth Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. http://www.bls.gov
- 13. Personal Savings Rate Major impact on economy if goes above 5% to 10% De-leveraging/Savings by Businesses and Consumers Contributing to Fall in Aggregate Demand (Consumption and Investment) Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis. http://www.bea.gov/briefrm/saving.htm
- 14. Retail Sales/Consumer Confidence Trade balance roughly zero from 1960 through 1981, fell to -173 billion as of October 2007. Avg. Increasing probability of a 5% international financial crisis. - 3% Credit Cards (freeze): Faster rates of capital accumulation due to foreign direct investment in manufacturing total revolving 90% of -11% YOY production, services, and technology sectors. ($1 trill.) credit Feb 09’
- 15. Real Estate Supply and Demand Analysis Short-Run Supply Conditions with Negative Employment Demand Shock Short-Run No Incentive Rent/Price Appreciation % Supply (Fixed) to Build New Product Old Market Structural Equilibrium Vacancy Rate Rent Price (10%) Growth (3.5%) Rents-Prices Rent/Price Vacancy Rate Well Below Declines (20%) Replacement *Rent Costs Growth (-35%) Aggregate Demand Aggregate Demand * Existing # Units Inventory
- 16. Gross National Product (GDP) GDP = consumption + gross investment + government spending + (exports − imports) 4/1Q 08/09’ = -6.3/5.7%, worst in 28 yrs. = -6.4% 1982 Commercial real estate spending -21% and residential -22% Q2f 09’ Avg. 36-to-60 month trough -3.2% http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/gdpnewsrelease.htm
- 17. Non-Residential Fixed Investment Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis. http://www.bea.gov/briefrm/nonresfi.htm
- 18. Real Residential Fixed Investment http://www.bea.gov/briefrm/resfi.htm
- 19. Balance of Trade Trade balance roughly zero from 1960 through 1981, fell to -173 billion as of October 2007. Dollar down 12% against Yen/Euro Port Container Counts YOY: currencies LA - 32% and Long Beach - 40% In 2010: IMF 1.3% drop global output. In 2009: -5% in U.S. and Germany Faster rates of capital accumulation due to Japanese Exports down manufacturing foreign direct investment in 51% to US and 31% to production, services, and technology sectors. China, first merchandise trade deficit in 30 years Sources: U.S. Department of Commerce: Bureau of Economic Analysis http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/BOPBCA/13
- 20. Non-Farm Payroll Employment YOY# May 2009 Total = -5,370,000 YOY% -3.9% on par with 60s, 70s and 80s -4.7% Cal, -4.3% LA, and -4.1% SF Bay 300,000 May 09’ Total = -345,000 In 2009: Jan -741,000, Feb -681,000, Mar/Apr -504,000 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. http://www.bls.gov Bay Area firms cut 5%-to-15% of payrolls
- 21. San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA Monthly % Year-Over-Year Non-Farm Employment Growth Rates 4.3% YOY 2.1% Aug.00 YOY (88.8k) Jun.06 (41.1k) Apr YOY % Con. -14% Fin. -7% Trans. -6% -5.6% -4.1% Mfg. -5% YOY YOY Info. -4% Mar.02 Apr. 09 Bus. -4% (-120.5k) (-82.8k) Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. http://data.bls.gov/PDQ/servlet/SurveyOutputServlet
- 22. Source: Venture Economics. http://www.ventureeconomics.com/vec/us.html. https://www.pwcmoneytree.com/MTPublic/ns/index.jsp Venture Capital Flows – 5 ½ Yr. Low -42% 4Q08-1Q09 -61% 1Q09 YOY Industry to Shrink 10% -to- 20% next 2 yrs
- 23. U.S. Unemployment Rate Well Unemployment Rate 25 yr Peak Spring Above High: U.S. 9.4%, California 2010 at 10%, May’09 Natural 11.0%, SF Bay 9.3%, structural 5% by 9.4% LA/ORG 10.1% 2013-2014 Rate Dis- Inflation Exposure 5.0% Natural Rate (NAIRU) State of Cal unemployment insurance fund $18 billion deficit in 2010 ($29 bil.payout) Note: Under-employment rate roughly Avg. work week 33.2 hours, double stated unemployment rate. lowest since 1964; avg. duration Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. unemployment 20 weeks. http://data.bls.gov/PDQ/servlet/SurveyOutputServlet
- 24. Housing Market – Price Declines From Peak Mtg default/foreclosures 1Q09: Cal 135k and SF Bay 20k (Up 20% YOY – 35% SF/SM/SJ). 2Q06 down ~27% SF Bay Area -31% YOY Lifting of moratorium + rising mtg interest rates to cause foreclosure spike/continued price declines. SF Bay Area since 2007: Total Foreclosures 51,602 (35% ~ 20,000 Unsold / 66%~ 30,823 Resold). 600,000 US repossessed not sold (80,000 in Cal) http://www2.standardandpoors.com/spf/pdf/index/CSHomePrice_Release_052619.pdf
- 25. Inflation Expectations U.S. Producer and Consumer Price Index (PPI/CPI) April Year-Over-Year Change: -0.7% (1955), 0.0% (1959), 3.0% (1969), 10.5% (1979), 5.7% 9.8% (1989), 1.1% (1999), 6.4% (2008) and -3.5% (2009) 1Q09: Industrial production -20%, biggest decline in 30 years; capacity utilization 69%, lowest since 1967. -3.5% -0.3% (1955), 0.3% (1959), 5.5% (1969), 10.5% (1979), 5.0% (1989), 2.3% (1999), 3.9% (2008) and -0.6% (2009) 5.4% Since 1990, prices up 42% food, 87% healthcare, 88% housing, 70% alcohol, 67% entertainment, 20% tobacco -0.6% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. http://www.bls.gov/home.htm
- 26. Inflation Expectations $145.16 Down Oil Prices up from $18 in 2001 -76% to $145 in 2008, up 729% $68.58 Up 102% $34.03 $17.50 Source: Energy Information Administration (http://eia.doe.gov/)
- 27. Yield Curve Although S-T Risk Free - Falling Prices Rates near Zero (negative real) debt/equity credit All debt + equity securities price off of the and illiquidity risk yield curve (term structure interest rates) premiums “too” high Upward pressure on bond yields due to Potential Intrinsic crowing out and stock Devaluation = 30%-to-50%* market yields 10 Yr. Up ~ 200 bps YTD from -400 bsp from 2005/2006 2% to 3.9% IRR = WACC = 25% -to- 35% WACC > IRR Objective: Steep Rebuild Interest Margin, Loan Loss Reserves, Reserve Capital, etc. http://stockcharts.com/charts/YieldCurve.html Note *: 8%-to-16% NOI Declines, Cap Rates to Rise 150-to-200 bsp
- 28. Net Change Commercial Mortgage Debt (1980-2008) -- $3.4 trillion Outstanding: Banks (49%), CMBS (22%) Next 4 Years: $250-to-$300 billion mtg. debt per year maturing, will need to be refinanced, escalating until 2015. Sales -75%~85% Falling values/de-leveraging: Equity Growth 10% Shortfall $425 billion next 5years. Per Year: 1995-2008 CMBS Resi.Mtg.Bk.Sec.s Delinq. 5-to-15% 15%-to-30% Originations -70% CMBS Issuance -90% Sources: Kennedy Associates, Foresight Analytics, Federal Reserve Board of Governors, Mortgage Bankers Association, and Commercial Mortgage Backed Securities Association.
- 29. CMBS Spreads – Investment Grade vs. 10 Yr. Treasury CMBS Issuance from $50 bil. 2002 to $225 bil. 2007 Spreads Over 10 Year T-Bills (2/28/09) AAA + 1,179 bps (11.9%) AA + 3,629 (36.3%) A + 4,329 (43.3%) BBB + 5,229 (52.3%) http://www.cmsaglobal.org/uploadedFiles/CMSA_Site_Home/Industry_Resources/Research/Industry_Statistics/CMSA_Compendium.pdf Sources: Commercial Mortgage Backed Securities Association, Quandrant Real Estate Advisors, Institutional Real Estate Inc. (IREI)
- 30. REIT Equity Stock Index Performance – Dow Jones Operations (Job Cuts)/Balance Sheet Clean Up (Duration Matching), Equity Issuance (Dilution), and Take-Out Targets -59% from FFO/Dividend Yields: Peak From 10% -to- 20% depending on property sector/geography, and asset/management/balance sheet quality. Equity Capital Raised: $2.5 bill. Jan. 2008 vs. $500 mill. Jan. 2009 http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=REIT&t=my
- 31. Commercial Mortgage Back Securities (CMBS) Delinquency http://www.cmsaglobal.org/uploadedFiles/CMSA_Site_Home/Industry_Resources/Research/Industry_Statistics/CMSA_Compendium.pdf
- 32. Commercial Mortgage Debt Exposure Massive Bank Balance Sheet, Capital Market, and Tax Payer and Default Risk Exposure http://www.mbaa.org/files/Research/DataBooks/3Q08QuarterlyDataBook.pdf
- 33. Yield Curve
- 34. Conclusions
- 36. Institutional Foundations for Efficient Capital Markets “Efficient real estate and securities capital markets require strong public and private sector cooperation, disclosure of government and corporate financial conditions, and institutional and individual investor confidence in financial and political institutions.” Lawrence Souza
- 37. Geographic Comparative Advantages Long run commercial market fundamentals: Low commercial market affordability (high costs) Scarcity of developable land (supply constraints) High concentrations of wealth/education High quality of life amenities Strong demographic trends: Growing population of Empty-Nesters and Echo-Boomers, positive migration trends
- 38. Economic Risks Market-Economic Risks: High costs of living and doing business State-Local regulations, taxes, workers comp, deficits Lack of affordable/developable land and housing Traffic congestion and infrastructure constraints Out sourcing and migration Cut-backs in education and social services Mergers-consolidation industrial, technology, telecommunications and financial institutions
- 39. Macro-Economic Risks • Middle East (Oil Price Spikes) • Current Account and Budget Deficits (Interest Rates) • Rising Inflation Expectations (Health Care/Food Costs) • High-Rising Credit-Equity Risk Premiums (Spreads) • Consumer-Business Confidence Investment • Slow Global Growth and Protectionist Trade Policy • Rising Loan (Credit) Defaults and (Mtg) Foreclosures • Labor Strikes, Low Wage Growth, Underemployment • Stock Option Back-Dating, Other Accounting Announcements Irregularities, Investor Confidence
- 40. Lawrence Souza (lsouza@Johnson/SouzaGroup.com) brings to Johnson Souza Group, Inc. (Direct: (415-713-0213) over 20 years of experience in real estate economic and financial research. As Managing Director-Index Services, Charles Schwab Investment Management (CSIM); Chief Real Estate Economist and Director of Index Services, Global Real Analytics (GRA); Director of Research for BRE Properties, Inc. (REIT) in San Francisco and holding Senior Market/Research Analyst positions at Metric Institutional Realty Advisors and Mellon-McMahan/MacFarlane Realty Advisors, and market research positions at Norris, Beggs and Simpson and Grubb & Ellis commercial brokerage. Mr. Souza combines traditional fundamental real estate economic and market research with fundamental and technical financial and capital market research. This combined approach allows for the tracking and forecasting of economic, real estate and financial cycles and efficient portfolio construction, optimization and risk management. Mr. Souza is also a licensed California Real Estate Broker (Realtor), specializing in urban-infill residential, commercial property transactions, and 1031 Exchanges in the San Francisco Bay Area and Western Region. Mr. Souza has undergraduate degrees in Economics (BA) and Business Administration (BS) with concentrations in Accounting, Finance, Banking and Real Estate; and holds master’s degrees in Applied Economics (MA), Finance/Investments (MS), Public Administration (MPA), and Information Systems (MSIS). Mr. Souza has been teaching Modern Real Estate Principles and Finance since 1996 with an emphasis on real estate in a modern portfolio and capital markets context; and the institutionalization, securitization, internationalization and technologization of real estate markets and products.
- 41. Appendix
- 42. The Importance of IT Industries Not Important Average Importance Highly Important Note: IT accounts for 10.5% of U.S. Employment
- 43. Exchange Rates (2009) Euro Japanese Yen -13.3% 12.9% 12.5% British Pound Swiss Franc -16.0% -11.7% 16.5% http://www.x-rates.com/d/USD/EUR/graph120.html
- 45. New Housing Starts Source. United States Census Bureau. http://www.census.gov/briefrm/esbr/www/esbr020.html
- 46. Housing Market – Price Declines http://www2.standardandpoors.com/spf/pdf/index/CSHomePrice_Release_052619.pdf
- 47. Housing Market – Tight Credit Standards
- 48. Housing Market - Excess Inventory
- 49. Housing Market – FHA Originations
- 50. Housing Market – Default Rates