Water Scarcity and Climate Uncertainty by Elena Mateescu, National Meteorological Administration, Romania and National Focal Point UNCCD

5 – 6 October 2012, Bratislava, Slovakia
Integrated Drought Management Programme in Central and Eastern Europe
A GWP and WMO initiative: Regional Workshop Agenda

5 October 2012
Drought management: current status and future
regional perspectives, water management and
agriculture sectors perspectives
Water scarcity and climate uncertainty; what do we know
on droughts in Europe

Dr. Elena Mateescu - National Meteorological Administration, Romania
Liviu Popescu – GWP, Romania

Outline
 Water scarcity and drought concepts
 Water scarcity, drought and CC - policy framework
 Knowledge base and information exchange on CC and drought –
technical and scientific platform
 Climatic conditions in Europe – current status and projected changes
 Potential impacts of CC on the status of water resources in drought
conditions
 What are the main sources of uncertainty on CC and drought impact ?
 Examples of information networks on DROUGHT
 Drought management and adaptation options – IDMP
 Conclusions

Water scarcity and drought concepts

Water scarcity is a man-made caused phenomenon. It is a recurrent imbalance that arises
from an overuse of water resources, caused by consumption being significantly higher than
the natural renewable availability. Water scarcity can be more aggravated by disturbed
meteorological conditions during drought episodes and even more complicated by the water
pollution which is associated with lack of resources (reducing the suitability for different
water uses);
Drought is a natural phenomenon. It is a temporary, negative and severe deviation along a
significant time period and over a large region from average precipitation values (a rainfall
deficit), which might lead to meteorological, agricultural, hydrological and socio-economic
drought, depending on its severity and duration (EU definitions on WS&D Report, 2007).

TIME SCALE
Short-term Mid-term (months, Long-term
(days, weeks) seasons, years) (decades)
Causes Natural Dry spell Drought Aridity

Man-made Water shortage Water scarcity Desertification

Timescale and causes of water scarcity, drought and related concepts

Source: Gap Analysis of the Water Scarcity and Droughts Policy in the EU,
European Commission Tender ENV.D.1/SER/2010/0049 August 2012

Water scarcity, drought and CC – policy framework
Related on water scarcity and droughts policy, several EU policies and initiatives
contribute to efforts for adaptation to climate change impact on water resources
management; examples :
EU Water Framework Directive (WFD/2000/60/EC) and the Water Scarcity and
Droughts EU Policy (EC 2007b) refers :
- to protect and restore the water environment across Europe by 2015 and to
ensure the long term sustainable use of water;
- to development of adaptation measures and sets out of a number of policy
options for addressing impacts of water scarcity and droughts in next decades.
 The Blueprint to safeguard Europe's water resources is a communication to be
released by the end of 2012 that will address the evolution of water resources, including
water's vulnerability to climate change and anthropogenic pressures (i.e. land use
management). It will focus on different water resource management aspects that are related
to adaption (land use management including forests, indicative water efficiency targets,
economic instruments, innovation, governance and knowledge base).
WATER SAVING SHOULD BECAME THE PRIORITY.
Drought Management Plans must be the first set of policy options for future action

Knowledge base and information exchange on CC and
drought – technical and scientific platform
The White Paper of the European Commission “Adapting to climate change: Towards
a European framework for action” (COM/2009/147) issued in April 2009 sets out a framework
to reduce the EU’s areas vulnerability to the water scarcity and drought.
Starting with March 2012, the European Climate Adaptation Platform (CLIMATE- ADAPT)
is a publicly accessible web-based platform designed to support policy-makers at EU,
national, regional and local level in the development of climate change adaptation measures
and policies;
 The CLIMATE-ADAPT have been developed with the support of the European scientific and
policy making community, and will help users to access, disseminate and integrate information
on:
- Expected climate change in Europe
- The vulnerability of regions and sectors at present and in the future
- National, regional and transnational adaptation activities and strategies
- Case examples of adaptation and potential future adaptation options
- Online tools that support adaptation planning
- Adaptation-related research projects, guideline documents,
reports information sources, links, news & events.

http://climate-adapt.eea.europa.eu/

Why is water use a concern in Europe?
 Balance between demand and availability has reached a critical level in
many areas of Europe (water scarcity)
 More and more areas are affected by weather changes, in particular less
rain (droughts)
 Climate change will almost certainly make the situation worse
 More frequent and severe droughts expected across Europe and the
neighbouring countries
 Total water abstraction in EU 247 billion m³/year:
 44% for energy production,
 24% for agriculture,
 17% for public water supply
 Agriculture is currently accountable for 85% of the global water
consumption, and irrigated areas are expected to rise by a factor of 1.9 by
2050, globally in the highest percentages where water-scarcity is most
intense, namely South Europe Countries.
 For this reason, the need for improved water management practices, soil
and crop, particularly in light of climate change, is growing.

Source: Martindale W., 2010. Food supply chain innovation. Aspects of Apll. Biol., 102, 1-6.

Climatic conditions in Europe – current status
Over the past
thirty years,
droughts have
dramatically
increased in
number and
intensity in the
EU, the number
of areas and
people affected
by droughts
increasing by
almost 20%
between 1976
Observed changes in annual precipitation between 1961-2006
and 2006.

Source: EEA, Impacts of Europe's changing climate - 2008 indicator-
based assessment (2008).

Drought situation and related risks in CEE countries
Slovenia Romania Bulgaria Hungary

Agricultural drought in summer 2003 Areas affected by drought Annual precipitation (mm) Drought risk zones

Ukraine Poland Lithuania

Crop yields in dry (2003) and non-dry Spatial distribution of water deficit Precipitation amount for May-July,
(2008) years in 1992 year 2006

Slovakia was affected by extreme droughts in several years: 2000, 2002, 2003, 2006,
2007, 2008 and 2009). Also, the autumn of 2011 was the second driest since 1881.

Climatic conditions in Europe – projected changes
Drought is one of the most damaging natural hazards through its
effects on agricultural, hydrological, ecological and socio-economic
systems.
For the next two decades a warming of about 0.2°C per decade is
projected for a range of SRES emissions scenarios. Even if the concentrations
of all GHGs and aerosols had been kept constant at year 2000 levels, a further
warming of about 0.1°C per decade would be expected. Afterwards,
temperature projections increasingly depend on specific emissions scenarios.
 Drought prone areas and regions affected by heat waves are considered
likely to increase in extent. In Southern Europe especially climate change
is projected to worsen conditions (high temperatures and drought) in
a region that already faces water scarcity and heat waves in a
substantial number of areas. In Central and Eastern Europe, summer
precipitation is projected to decrease, causing higher water stress
(4-th Assessment Reports of the IPCC, 2007).

http://meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU2012/EGU2012-563-2.pdf
http://ftp.jrc.es/EURdoc/JRC55386.pdf

Climatic conditions in Europe – projected changes

In EUROPE, a mean
annual air temperature
increase of 2...4,5°C is
foreseen by the end of
the century, function of
the scenarios of green
house gas emissions.
A 10...30% decrease of
the annual precipitation
amounts is estimated in
the southern part of
Europe, and even higher
values in the north are
expected.

(Source: IPCC, 4AR, 2007)

Climatic condition in Europe – projected changes
Europe has seen an
increase in temperature
of 0.3°C per decade
since the 1970s. At least
two summers in the last
decade (2003 and 2010)
have been the warmest
of the last 500 years in
Europe. Southern Europe
in particular is affected
by hot summer days and
tropical nights.
Projections indicate an
increase of the length,
frequency and/or
intensity of warm spells,
or heat waves.

Source: EEA Report, No 2/2012

During the 20th century has been a
clear trend towards drier conditions,
with decreases in rainfall especially
in Southern and Eastern European
countries. The total area affected by
water scarcity and droughts
doubled - from 6 to 13 % - during
the last 30 years.
Future projections shows how the
precipitation deficit is projected to
change in the future in summer and
winter time. In this context, CC is
projected to lead to major changes
in water availability across Europe
with increasing water scarcity and
droughts mainly in Southern
Europe.


The water stress indicator (WEI) describes the ratio between total water withdrawals against water availability. It
illustrates to which extent the total water demand puts pressure on the available water resources in a given
territory and points out the territories that have high water demand compared to their resources.

The results show that parts
of southern and north-
western Europe are already
under severe water stress.
Projected climatic changes
shows that the situation
worsens and most parts of
Europe will be under severe
or medium water stress.


Potential impacts of CC on the status of water resources in drought
conditions

In drought conditions climate change affects the following variables:
• water availability (river flows and groundwater levels)
Annual river flow is projected to decrease in southern and south-eastern
Europe and increase in northern Europe, but absolute changes remain uncertain.
Climate change is projected to result in strong changes in the seasonality of river
flows across Europe (EEA/JRC/WHO, 2008).
• water demand (esp. peak demands during periods of drought)
Regions in southern Europe which already suffer most due to water stress are
projected to be particularly vulnerable to reductions in water resources due to CC.
In addition, higher temperatures are expected to lead to increased water demand,
especially for irrigation and urban supply. This will result in increased competition for
available resources (EEA/JRC/WHO, 2008).
• intensity and frequency of droughts
The frequency and intensity of droughts are projected to increase in many regions of
Europe, as a result of higher temperatures, decreased summer precipitation, and
more and longer dry spells. The regions most prone to an increase in drought
hazard are southern and south-eastern Europe (EEA/JRC/WHO, 2008).

What are the main sources of uncertainty on CC and drought impact ?

Uncertainties related on scientific information:
 Data availability, particularly with respect to the historical climatic series collected in the
relevant database;
 The lack of common drought indicators – climatic, agricultural, hydrological, etc;
 The difficulties in modeling of drought impact based on climatic conditions and a
variety of emission scenarios. The results are interpreted, described and published on a
regular basis by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC);
 The spatial resolution of global models is insufficient for application in impact models
and thereby for determining the effects of regional and local climate change. To overcome
this limitation, regionalisation procedures are applied. By these, the global projections
are “downscaled” to smaller grid elements of up to 25 km × 25 km. In individual studies the
downscaling is even below this grid size, or adjusted to the locations of individual stations;
 Quantitative projections of changes in precipitation and the river flows at the river-
basin scale are due to the limitations of climate models, as well as scaling issues between
climate and hydrological models. Statistical correction methods have been developed
which bring the models closer to a realistic simulation of, for instance, the amount and
intensity of precipitation at the scale of river basins and small catchments.

Handling uncertainty

The handling related uncertainties of available scientific knowledge on CC and
drought:
In practical terms, decisions related to climate change impacts need to encompass several
adaptation options to the climate projections. In other words, decision makers will have to
handle and accept different options based on scenarios and be explicit about
uncertainty.
 A bottom-up approach in terms of looking at potential measures and considering how
each of these or combinations of them will perform against the range of possible climate
futures modeled.
Research and development projects can determine which sectors are impacted most
severely by climate change and where measures are needed most urgently to prevent
severe effects, even if their extent is not yet known.

Examples of information networks on DROUGHT
 At global level:
- The World Meteorological Organization (WMO)
- UNCCD Convention
- The Global Water Partnership (GWP)
 in Europe:
- EC/DG Environment Program “Halting Desertification in Europe
- The United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE)
- The European Water Partnership (EWP)
- CLIMATE-ADAPT Platform
- ADAM Digital Compendium on Adaptation is a the portal for the dissemination of the trans-disciplinary
analysis results carried out in the EU ADAM project
- Research projects:
- Research into climate change scenarios: PRUDENCE, ENSEMBLES, STARDEX,
CECILIA, CLAVIER, CIRCA ERA-Net, CCWATERs, etc
- Research on droughts and water scarcity: XEROCHORE, European Drought Observatory
(EDO), WATERCoRe, MIDMURES, REDSIM, DESIRAS, I-ADAPT, Desert-net, DROUGHT-R&SPI;
- Research into climate change impacts on the aquatic environment and water cycle: CLIME,
KLIWAS, CLIMWATERADAPT, WATCH, CIRCE; WATER2ADAPT,
- Research into mitigation / adaptation options and costs: AquaStress, ADAM, ClimateWater,

Drought management and adaptation options
The basic Framework to minimize the adverse impacts on the economy, social life
and environment when drought occurs, is the development of a specific Integrated
Drought Management Plan (IDMP).
Guiding principles:
1. Diagnose the causes that led to drought in the past and/or may lead to it in the future;
2. Monitor current drought conditions in order to detect water deficit early;
3. Develop a comprehensive set of indicators at appropriate temporal and spatial scale in
order to predict drought impacts;
4. Diagnose and improve knowledge of water deficit based on past and future trends,
incorporating climate change projections;
5. Analyze how predicted changes in mean annual rainfall will affect the socio-economic life
and environment;
6. Incorporate climate change adaptation in water management by continuing the focus on
sustainability (sustainable balance between water availability and demand).
7. Follow an integrated approach based on a combination of measures (compared to
alternatives based on water supply or economic instruments only);
8. Assess other climate change adaptation and mitigation measures on their impact on
drought risks.

IDMP initiative as a decisional tool

The outputs of IDMP initiative are:
1. Knowledge base on recorded practices in drought planning and management;
2. Guidance on tools and institutional arrangements to support increased risk responses;
3. Advocacy through regional and country dialogues;
4. Improved early drought warning services, building upon existing regional initiatives.

Recommendations in order to implement the outputs of IDMP initiative:
- to collaborate closely with WMO on the drafting the work plan on IDMP(2013-2015);
- to invite the DMCSEE and the European Drought Centre (EDO) to conduct the proposed activities and seek synergies;
- to invite and inform national secretariats of UNCCD of all CEE countries to contribute to specific case studies dealing with
degradation of land caused by desertification;
- to seek an appropriate mechanism and cooperation with agriculture sector at national levels;
- to invite the UNECE and its Task Force on Climate Change Adaptation to coordinate and share achievements in IDMP in CEE
region and seek a potential of the program replication in other signatory UNECE countries (specifically those in Central Asia,
where GWP has also its partners).
- to establish a web-based Integrated Drought Management Platform for:
• commonly agreed products (e.g. objectively measurable drought indices covering as many contributing parameters
as possible);
• joint comparison and analysis of information;
• mutual exchange of knowledge & methodologies, and downscaling products;
• real-time monitoring and forecasting products and services (early warning, preparedness).

Policymakers need good information at the local, regional and European
scales to identify priority issues, relevant sectors and economic activities.

Conclusions
 Climate change is likely to exacerbate current pressures on Europe's water
resources. Increasingly, much of Europe will face reduced water availability
especially during summer months, while the frequency and intensity of
drought is projected to increase especially in the South. In the absence of
sufficiently strong action, climate change may have also an sever impact
on water management resources (EEA, 2010c).
 Environmental measures need to be implemented in the policies of all sectors
affected by water scarcity and drought. To inform decisional makers at the
regional and local levels the knowledge base for action needs to be improved.
At the regional/local level it is crucial that competent authorities make any
water management decisions in full awareness of the availability of water
resources and in full awareness of the actual needs of all actors. Appropriate
methodologies need to be implemented in order to provide effective monitoring
and better management planning.

Source: Towards efficient use of water resources in Europe, EEA Report No.1, 2012

Thank You!
elena.mateescu@meteoromania.ro
lipopesc@gmail.com

Water Scarcity and Climate Uncertainty by Elena Mateescu, National Meteorological Administration, Romania and National Focal Point UNCCD

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