World Future Society talk on Work/Technologh Global 2050 scenarios
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This document outlines three potential global scenarios for the future of work and technology in 2050 based on an international study. Scenario 1 is a mixed outcome where new technologies are adopted irregularly, leading to high unemployment in some areas. Scenario 2 involves political and economic turmoil as governments fail to address widespread job loss from new technologies. Scenario 3 envisions governments implementing universal basic income and promoting self-employment, allowing a transition to a "self-actualization economy." The study involved experts from over 45 countries developing the scenarios and discussing strategies for education, government, business, and culture. National workshops were held to stimulate long-term strategic thinking about managing technological change and its impacts on employment.
World Future Society talk on Work/Technologh Global 2050 scenarios
- 1. Three Work/Technology Global Scenarios for 2050 Jerome C. Glenn, CEO The Millennium Project
- 2. Inevitability of New Economics • Concentration of wealth is increasing • Income gaps are widening • Employmentless economic growth seems the new norm • Return on Investment in capital and technology is usually better than labor • Future technologies can replace much of human labor • Long-term structural unemployment is a “business as usual” surprise free forecast • What can we do about this?
- 3. Future of Work/Technology 2050 Study 1. Literature and Related Research Review 2. Real-Time Delphi 3. Road Maps and Scenario Drafts 4. RTDelphi Feedback on the Scenarios 5. Final Scenarios, Policy issues, and workshop considerations 6. National Workshops 7. Collect results of the national planning workshops, analyze & synthesize results 8. Final report for public discussion
- 4. What is Different About This Future Work & AI Study? 1. It is an international study with the participation of over 350 futurists, AI professionals, economists, and other related experts from over 45 countries. 2. It does not focus on just one country or one occupational group. 3. It does not just look at AI’s & robotics’ impacts on work, but also synthetic biology, 3D/4D printing, nanotechnology, VR & AR, and other future tech. 4. Longer-range: 2050 helps us look secondary & tertiary consequences and discusses cultural change 5. Creates three global scenarios to the year 2050. 6. National strategy workshops to stimulate long-range strategic thinking. 7. Compares national workshop results and feeds back to participating countries. 8. As a result, this study focuses on what to do, rather than know many jobs will be lost and when.
- 5. Global Work/Technology Scenarios 2050 1. It’s Complicated - A Mixed Bag 2. Political/Economic Turmoil – Future Despair 3. If Humans Were Free – The Self-Actualizing Economy
- 6. Global Employment Scenario Assumptions “workforce” 3 billion 2000; 6 billion 2015 Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Employed 2 Billion 1 Billion 1 Billion Self-Employed 2 Billion 1 Billion 3 Billion Unemployed or in transition 1 Billion 2 Billion 1 Billion Informal Economy 1 Billion 2 Billion 1 Billion
- 7. Three forms of Artificial Intelligence Artificial Intelligence 1. Artificial Narrow Intelligence 2. Artificial General Intelligence 3. Artificial Super Intelligence
- 8. Next Technologies (NT) = all together: Artificial Intelligence Robotics Synthetic Biology & Genomics Computational Science Cloud & Big Data Analytics Artificial & Augmented Reality Nanotechnology IoT, Tele-Everything & Tele- Everybody, the Semantic Web Quantum computing Tele-Presence, Holographic Communications Intelligence augmentation Collective Intelligence 3D/4D Printing of Materials and Biology Drones, Driverless Cars (and other autonomous vehicles) Conscious-Technology Synergies Among These
- 9. Synergies of photovoltaics, robotics, satellites, AI, drones, ICT, and generic engineering
- 10. Scenario 1: It’s Competed – A Mixed Bag • A business-as-usual trend projection of the increasing acceleration of change with both intelligence and stupidity characterized decisionmaking (or lack of decisionmaking) • Irregular adoption of NT • High unemployment where governments did not create long-range strategies to address NT impacts • Mixed success on the use of universal basic income • Giant corporation’s powers have often grown beyond government control, in this government-corporate, virtual-3D multi-polar, complex world of 2050
- 11. Some Elements of Scenario 1 • Personal AI/Avatars finding new markets/work on a daily basis • Growth of synthetic biology much greater than expected and one key driver in economic growth, but also source of bio-disasters, new terrorist weapons, and income for organized crime • Crowd sourced investments, sharing economy, and some UBI helped spread new wealth • Some income gaps narrowed, still wide enough for migrations and social unrest • NT used for good and bad, like the Internet today, increasing costs of security, and Anti-NT backlash • Basic income experiments were more successful after the 2030s • NT to augment human labor not replace all jobs • NT Databases (Labor Unions, Business, Gov, collaborations)
- 12. Planes are different than birds, but both fly. AGI/robots are different than humans, but both learn and seem conscious Although this is a dumb photo, as AI/robots would not read a book this old fashion way.
- 13. Scenario 2: Political/Economic Turmoil: Future Despair • Governments did not anticipate scale if NT impacts • No strategies in place as unemployment exploded in the 2030s leaving the world of 2050 in political turmoil. • Social polarization and political grid-lock in many forms have grown. • Global order has deteriorated into a combination of nation- states, mega-corporations, local militias, terrorism, and organized crime.
- 14. Some Elements of Scenario 2 • Political grid lock makes governments dysfunctional, increasing political, economic, environmental migrations which increases ethnic conflicts increasing fragmentation; protectionist concentration of wealth continues, organized crime and corporations grow beyond control, Internet is no longer trusted • 3D/4D printing and renewable energy reduced international shipping and other trade systems • Int’l S&T Org fails as new medium for information warfare
- 15. Scenario 2 Jobless Migrations
- 16. Scenario 3: If Humans Were Free – the Self-Actualization Economy • Governments did anticipate Next Tech (NT) impacts • conducted extensive research on how to phase in universal basic income systems • promoted self-employment. • Artists, media moguls, and entertainers helped to foster cultural change from an employment culture to a self- actualization economy.
- 17. Some Elements of Scenario 3 • Government NT/Work national strategy processes • Alternative cash flow projections for universal basic income programs • Invest into what replaces you • Personal AI/Avatars finding markets, work, and experiences for self-actualization • Arts, media, entertainment, computer games to explore cultural transition to self-actualization economy • Int’l S&T Org successful as online collective intelligence systems
- 18. Will our AI/Avitars wake us up in the morning with new work… each day?
- 19. Steve Jobs and Bill Gates 1991 By 2030-2050 millions of people could become augmented geniuses, and what could they create?
- 20. If you can’t beat AI, why not join with it? …and evolve together?
- 21. Will STEM Education (S&T, Engineering, Mathematics) Make a Difference? After 2030 as AI learns how to learn in general, simultaneously and world/wide?
- 22. Examples of Issues for National Long-Rang Strategy 1. Education: How should education, training, and learning systems change? And what strategies will make that happen? 2. Government: Will a guaranteed income program become necessary? What kind? When? Cash flow projections to show what is possible? 3. S&T (AI/Robotics/synthetic biology/nanotech) changes affecting work by 2025, 2035, 2050? 4. Culture: What changes in culture will be needed? culture that says jobs/employment is the source of self-respect? 5. Business: What should be the roles of private business in a national long-range strategy? Reducing income gaps and concentration of wealth. These issues become the Workshops Groups
- 23. Workshop Discussion Groups Culture Business & Labor S &TGovernment Education & Learning
- 24. Milano, Italy Work/Tech 2050 Workshop Joint Charrette with Singularity University in Milano, Italy July 11th Discussion Groups: 1.Educ./culture, 2.Government, 3.S&T 4.Bus&wWork
- 25. Seoul, Korea Work/Tech 2050 Workshop Mini- Charrette with five discussion groups. April, 2016 Discussion Groups: 1.Government, 2.Education 3.Culture 4.Business 5.Education
- 26. Some Considerations for National Strategy Education/Learning: • Make increasing intelligence an objective of education • In parallel to STEM, create self-paced inquiry-based learning for self-actualization • Begin shift from mastering a profession to mastering combinations of skills • Increased focus on developing creativity, critical thinking, human relations, philosophy, entrepreneurship, self-employment, ethics, and values. Government: • Produce alternative cash flow projections for universal basic income (consider: License and tax AI/robots and their creations, reduction of tax havens, value added tax, and taxes on carbon, massive wealth growth from new technologies, minimum corporate tax, etc.). • Work with other countries to establish the International S&T Organization (ISTO) • Create and implement a global counter organized crime strategy • Add TransInstitutional law in addition to for-profit and non-profit law
- 27. Some Considerations for National Strategy Science & Technology • Augment Movement – Tech to augment humans; not replace them • What are the likely impacts of AI and AGI? When? • Could synthetic biology create more jobs than AI replaces? • Create ISTO (International S&T Organization as an online collective intelligence system not as a mew bureaucracy) Culture: • Arts, media, entertainment, computer games to explore cultural transition to self-actualization economy • Media/Arts Alliance to create the “One Species” movement • Invest into what replaces you.
- 28. Some Considerations for National Strategy Business & Labor Invest in and promote Kickstarter-like crowd sourcing platforms to expand business startups and share the wealth of success Create personal AI/Avatars to support self-employment Individual augment genius apps International collaboration to create ISTO Synergetic intelligence, synergetic advantage and strategy as well as competitive intelligence, completive advantage and strategy Qualitivity as well as productivity Memes in advertisements to help create the cultural transition World Billionaires Club on Global Strategic Philanthropy World Cyber Game to explore self-employment New roles for labor unions – Augment Movement; NT Data base
- 31. For further information Jerome C. Glenn +1-202-686-5179 phone/fax [email protected] www.StateoftheFuture.org Global Futures Intelligence System: http://millennium-project.org/millennium/GFIS.html 2015-16 State of the Future: http://millennium-project.org/millennium/201516SOF.html Futures Research Methodology 3.0: http://millennium-project.org/millennium/FRM-V3.html