Uniupervised mL. * clouihiahion cluskaing prim Recommdals “3 (ogith'c 2 kmcang KAN ° DGScan poe Memon = OT < hverorchi'c as Nove bye J er i ee Re bored ame nae nee ee GBM f Sui PA ten (cA SvD Aut ANA a ii Encl ing tr calbooat, Pcie Supe tied ML—> with, Reqeet ton —® Linco incor Regrai'on i a See] Muth ple polynomial eg fasion linear Reg retin Regression # (mt R) linees Reqrasson (S42) *= wher for= =e Raster of inter Regression _ a A : fie el caerg hrc | Yemnte Find value of tn and ¢ E Peer, yl ——> x.) E Pa (3,6) ——> a i Se inewelupedcs Vecvin . 6-4) Ra orn i212 m= “=H =9 Slope mcans wilh tery change rin aw Vole of % how muck’ bitter 10 ¥y 2¢ Py (2a ¥3) —y Cy, 2) ye mx +C gear CAC &-BEC= 6 i : ete tabard Vinal eg”. Linchon trol feloke % od for giccn value o} X We Can fad Cosrcapond ing wAlle of ay. BP L ndeped oeps lal alsa aL Pants bGytg t= t Gnxn th. 4) siemple fo einen Y i wostLenthe dola with linceu telohonslvip ges: 1) Nut suiloble for colo heving Non- incor tclokonship . et tyuue, Peake} ul Lie “cal Uaderkordi'ng 1 ¢ mi ca. ed hes GE Oe 1c purpore tah Aa bs bt filted line Cooelel) : for_lincop reg recon Ginga (omer 10 pictur. = (Mace (Ay , |) = os unductond with thr Ox. m23 422 J (i 2 lo 4 4 ue := : a = Now find ile foce-funchon — loss = [Uo-8 caer) FUe-t4) ap araayd Caeouay'] es 2 Wag pleter a6 2 doe ie co = teoson fo toke quar. »_jothok postive and eagehve : veluc_moy nel cancel each other E Minna Epis eylt ey. High Accuracy , hugh [oy value —~ low: Accuracy . minimum’ 16 Beh des at grocer fread 2 iu a mt zohoa refers +o diteraining best porometer duck i cee] ie {tho voit step down unkil (a tun bo j . qlobaf minimum by ikercohve (re ces a u c 4 n ' h | 1 ve eenaes = Rordom fleba) jath‘a) havnimum ee Cm3(4)_ ta mochine earning fie [om pop = LO m 6 a7 |, Inkerce Be = learning rate: Fal "5 om ogartude of chonge thol-you 7 ad in poromcter dia therohon re <_porkial er obive of Joss funchian w-r-t m 7 Reni © Hee tb ||{L (gees, wu'gh ond bray ze ys wx+t b | an : T (weaqhh) aa) | k= indepen deal Vartable - | Y= dependect Van‘able ae | Ww = Wagh o | we Te we fi pq in (ors fanchon W- 6 b - bras ey Pat Pe fr I eee ions change in hosiFun Hoa 2 6 Po bie b = ad bar, rnin Leo i) swing porometer In_an ophmiza lon olg orth thot defermine chep size ct cock Meehn while moving ctword minimum of low funckon . divs =a = UNNI) v=o LN “a 5 se Os SN dh 5 = 4 ! redichon & a MLR Not qty tats ts Seder nese ee | eS Ape OX tae Te tagxat + anin tbh + & SS a eee f predicled value 4 Ackuof Creo Voluc -Near Regression ) fon th line or Tegrecsian . oul put-. i es Gice relahon | Feahyr and dor get output gokve corelotion ie .o Non-lineav(x) Nok ole Ueobuce 4 vetorg ct) linear Vv Vine ow Y abli ty multinle | : do check tats; ScaHer plak-: feoture 9 Ve torgch) . : oh. Ubollinc ELVEN crea ntolverc feoture showd hy independent ov should nok Bei os oe ee sueshst )Tr h 4 imo a iN | vif CYon'ance InAloh'on fee ec = | | lal it aveund | ther feoturt deal hove the issue | Lemd i} J} v1 ov more than Another thot | iperbcular fechuri hove moudhcollincrsly jusue and | need fy remove it I a}.| anuthes method fe Wy find out po relohemubehaec n al th. feofura _( Heolmap ) - | - Normals Ags pow i rained ceed areele) I | d \ tandard Moma, | | disbibuhon means nmarimum error shout Loround mean = I ho » tn check pb: kernel deauhy estimakon [ kele) | oan. Qi Or = agente bee) (Nol déciroble Tal docheck:- Statta plot ( “ypred revue) ) — - oe) No a couclekon of buen | if wep Raia Auto corres honi Negehve Aotncorloker : i Nok dee Treble) € decivable}— ie check pil. plot (1atduel ) 6 ewerity predi‘chon Tafecnce High vi Va Medium a Bg ans wee wv Ai Yvl] r non ln emg relahy p. Bot Qim+ Bix i fegression Ap J Fur de Wes Miss, : ‘ cole a ned dake tur train “f Ran Ehiead palipakoi? fecha toy 4 cabrecf rey y= pot pyocd Gao eR aseewl f: h r Now how we will tno the efec value IL afte Aine this fs hy perp momelon[vasiall aes rh ee ul, 3 Lele ou Zero mean Ma elas variance ey thal fous ten “ pallincarify (high carrele eh'on ) amorg ! Vins indped eh vonable. * x l ee wi uth be weltcasr ah toe — k. nal n lel urdustand avth pablem k pI e i | alesis iS |e ie Li Eilts vs [a-2]¢9| 4-0] 2] us| 16 Awe , Sava ese ze 61-2 eases oa lee 2 3-8 4b 4 Ee xXY=siy-g =X = 140 a 6-4 a0-| 4 4 qe 26 le n> I fe 56 1h _(numbhi cof deko poin hy’ b Be 81-6 36 ‘ alapoiek) te ote te gee] D4 cre 34g t4o- JL math restr”SIR APH NYE (2%) = = —O-srgs4|( ge) Tinea. equabon eels outed plug volue . im aie math. = ny 2 a:bIX - 6-83 lel tak it. for 2 y | Yack 2 a-4l (%)- 0-83 2 3:94 3-8 gy: o-4i (S)-d-&3 = td ee cs sa-4i(t)- 0-3 = [6-04 ie “#reoding dolo from ésV / * pd-reod sv (‘tron cev') +t dehining the variobles = db Lite!) plist O Be del Vy]. tolclt)pate: / / (Coe > dt adding -thi andor dermn A ess . . tad cvnta a 4 pesformming reqrasion aad fing model ———— Feud} = Sem+O1S* Geo SS # rok Summary tobe i (raull- umerany-t ) y=}overgi Hing ~ncons cto recluce Slope ae pai cua th Nin which ie ee a 7 a Nok en) Now We Raves Cun vey our mode ty choose LR on Sy pry tokPage re (he ae ——O iI ST nen add peasy before we ute teddies ——tuhich-waill-add help this teem for Hs ial term E | nutaing elecrvews Ors hyncepatarnctey | Raiduel f m= slope. | Now we will co | for FE ome) with eqe © E | Since Ine tb posssn (ole obiec\icr . dheaugh both points (8:3- ee F-be + (0-q)~ perfecHy trols why Hl eben beruecs = (ors Crs co-g)> | 1 (De Bagi a =] 2-03 | Tt ees = inte f _ _ Ee eee Hae nud line | > ( mitdinn*) on A ‘fo 2% (etm, SEme | Aire we ore doing sguar (*) a} Ha beni we yaled-tk 10 som 9b. regular}nebion +i Owd ¢ Tu on ath y vance hon gf 2 lg ¢ x i ee = Gra ye Ae [ a | = Pe in ES italy uy agi eE yw! 4 In ridge Fegresston £00 Gry voluc ofA thee wee eloay, tom« voluc Ay anal input feature buf in lose EF yuu conkneusly Tacreaye vel cee Awad (onan pein | you will zee yalue for som. of Cong nene, hs -an_oot imparten} jo hea we unknowing doing feat Schechter omd ih i odvorleq: of Lasto +110 wh: ing 00 high olmenst¢mal cola Lend) Urry feabure ore nol tmp { pcb ,We le V-) core -0-0} ( a es esa levied lined? 2 0 wally or you Mrrcooediak eee Laval uulone detreare ee doword Zero % pwalize no on Gia cod ANG Ube i Peer know if A inerecu /Ovec piling pdereere 7 tr (Acreaye ta pian Ce) High Rios High Vonane mab i Und fit over KH __)Under friby Over Hy SS | ho ovid the ove Bros -Vortance Tradentt- Mi ts_importont—to undeshond pred Hor etrore Lhias and Variance) wher 1} comes do acurocy Loin omy moe PA gan" 7) { _ thee 4 frodoft behaeen model's obilihy do Writ cni-aela sere cnulvaq one tahick jy rebtredf b : f ‘o or scl ching volus of peguloxzchan “Conon pope wualieae ng af these error: a help 4 th ng and sede Hing st olose uhile aintPol atonal or oe lenge ee (n_brasaing au Wal a4 feat fe iat eT tay iin bins kl, ee me 4 peiom bee 1 mupeneclole bag hak vonana Aa Ta Joot lke drilougI —— Blas sAdsiereries trade offi-_s] tre algevithon ies Jimple Chypothats wit. bincor eq*) then i hig, bras ond low von'ance ond thus + ir 5 - a a i Lequehen | then th baer Ba on high Vanonc ond | i F | Gail, niefe lo tes contd han ob. ! - aighe ee gi ce wilt ee eh oth t etudee both fac _condihin ee ab _frodect} oy bia —Vorvance c _hredeoff- Lf A) | € Flect vt Regulerizchion “er los furikon (015 fun chon! — 12 fen ye fe 2 ) Ir i ecoecm hgwilord on A) volue fomibr bree value + -jf we ore treiniwig bids been! moduli ER, OF ae bb know which eet perform betten and whiu, _petomsbus: ore beHer Jou Ainchon py useful, Clash Nel oa hsieu.) t ibis Corbiachon oth reg aaa hoe techmnt ghee Pall cl hat —— Begue = Zeon | Aimee tlle n Saaeant \ | peralty which iiiepased an pore"es * fap pray a msc} | din a ‘an p ad O ona & Cidge tarso Redge RIOGE “06 = 5Rry. gedae QR svvy Loss. Ridd qo to ul an a ox'xch'on pic oaa gain to223 errr tard year : phe weoor overall) wud We rq undersbanoll' ghoul 2 teven tp _my olato lung Tern hal hanpsa (MatMat my 3 2 2 Fans Avt tat toyed ~The ; \o. D8, feb: Int tint toe + -1 + Tne (o. aaa NeaNes ctesey) - - « * Ning? Yeo Tem _ Sim,O) Simple Exponhal o> Liv applicabl -Pothose hime _ Soe Wethere te no Lvendbno Ucaralaa |i ity. arin Holt wrela'r model - (tiple éxponha Lik iS aes well whether is both bead as well as ae Risheae y puede noun act (savideaiem lnowitica ot seosonol: fy then hell wintur ts hel) Sromple Cocpor h'al He . Dy O. Da Digg Daao Dao} tomy sat iad she ve aba by sigs 41 toy, Today» (orc!) webal will be the cuit woy to _proshact ire fom : Mero? ee ee ee tito r uhihg Avg in tutte big: |. scteaaleal 2 % Loo his nok good encthod aince temp von'es Q lot fhe oun cor Summer fo iatintey ] ’ ane ther woy 1s Whahever Ce cfod ays emp if UI same for-f> movro@ . ee fe amaliqq (ree local Av erode ab Day 4 je 24 will NY cabin ohon t ae yseled u'r bovos futrage ond ted Lb i j ie 7S 4 a Peak Lah ey aq fh Liapt % +144 Spi benpoeee 0 a Liqp + pet ee ce ! Pobigg +1 ctiep ® fin © a ——=— = A 2si rearrong thu venue ne e \ / \ \ ( Page , | ia Cee Che , ele Laon 2 Lobe ag ts tag Faw og OO | 4 ° be from Cure loporel wer'ghbeqeo pul rede exporhadly wheucas 1 sionpls average tary cocffur Pee Let undeuland aith shot Example. cE 1 a a er & 4 1 Jo a _$1 42 Li lala, —+ Lele. UetS a0) set JA Mt LatSy 5 beet 2 3-4" rise pis ni RS Lv L Pe ea Gmc =| 1-6 wy ie ro 30st, Les 2-12 Ge aed yer whieh ir not true.2 Ling + Yuse ee oo) +, Vivo trend i's cada, ln ea Geile ety) =O _ 42 (tal, G.-u) 4 LeBaron ple 2. ie ig ee vblum » - Fen pl bxponbial 2 Double Erepenhaf .c Dates / / \ | (Cn __)) ; — ri in = ae eile jest oF ee Hf = ey ELOO| tes ae 2 jae y ober ase ( I: 2:39 23-4603 4 6494 Wouter will ealaatals wi Deubl eprint PDL A ya eae Ve : to Le la by bye et Sc Le | : =, ty Ta TH ot les Cutt) + ae) Soe fala oe] z Loh wae afieel iGo ely (s-1)=otor Ona __ L Bo cee leet ls.) — ; Es er : : 1 (pete ajtd (4%) alee act 3 ‘sa = opted Io _ = 29d E aries Means ne (ta=ta) —— gene ie wae = 12) = oring + 0-437 92h aeYz lesser) +, (9 4684-2: 396) pee? D229 Meg +f oer (10924) eon ee fo Su CES “2p pial + Y(t +Ty) + AGT al ecto teer is wt) Fe Soa iesy bag pcre Y - Bale: (bg -Ly] : Yfo-seoi)el, (a euaq— 20009) is O-4i4os t os (11494 = o-4i4os 4+0-R4Er 2 Looag at te TTY Treo ic prircase OY OSE o-gr Biase| / ol. pat dtm ¢ coies dola. - Hcy iw Ys, Yaoo E eee | Eimer ieg Lroa a vend | Ste the Ta Thos r ancl by Sj 844 $200 y for 200 Months ——» 16 yw --F mensth for sco. on | by = periodic hance of |e Mundy lek fiat comes i job oe ep on bial pablen hap ju b m Hom t | Mi-81, ¥o-S2,Ya-Sa ete EN 500 aS ap oe Y (hing sariiael ae fr-(ses Sexe) 6- ; {Note Aiaciyoo0> Yrou= Sree Zs pate we (tag \t (hoo =Liaa) Lay Soro 2 fy, {Seoo=ty tip (Sree) z Fem@mcukcon del dulanoo to qc} bree rt subsbeact si90 Grom Yavo fr _ NOW $706 wt com do Naoo - Looe |) Em ce VY, (St0-|0) + VYo.CYnos Lave) ee)A ne ie on up hy g _ || for Looe we need s200 for s200 wenend Lavo q . if be , * Ai ins fay “a a a |_tne_eg™@_ Sr0u =Sigp Tae Is (4aq+Tiaa) ‘la ae = Ser) ——— cay. (trae) + Y, (bree -bt44) i Wage = Vy (Seo =I) mG (Eynoe =Lra) : Ra when we cam whol shourd be __ app! ae! futurc_weedschion : lost possible local Avg = ih | all future predichon | hynep aromela changed free laud pacible beat Ave k | pyonal i trend ard! local Avetag «+ been +MindeW Reved according 3)ARM Basieadly fen ou thees_madel s-— si “a Tenia) bh) AREA [tama | er Tae] [va] dole shautd be sener_ncsels the ie Here delo mul be stohonary it nncons clisha bubon a nme] po Mmrban rn An tag ( Stobonory) 7 (Note takoren } :‘ © ey = 4 fo BIDE Mte AM eat) eal Oe) Ye = AIMt-1 t% Ve-a fda Ve-gt ete . AQ How to scleck Bek poaibls model. O@1, AR. HR3 | ret sehr dard on fut dota accurowy whichever will _| pecforan good wilt Anolis thal. ¢ ee Yt Mal Sys Es Mt 2 Pa & Et Bee hee-) SipOuipne ey MAC) a - | it lal year (onl TEESf Dato: / / > | Modi bored freccashing . — ~ AR a MA al fram (A R+ mA) TMA (which ia coms by ARM e ilsel b) ~~ = : I mo | LAST pee => future predichon are comp) ulely depcao] on pad: dota il te eqrass KX 6 IC. E a ee E ea predichon IL = Seat t ere arts) ‘s ibiFAS depend on on L ae ela ee gett tt at teat zetia Ss * la yolkerday Jeu ie J yelrd ay -alo nosn ee Aa ooh D1 thro A ' Jo PRIMA Bie Aince they are enced te a on ‘ f L lon ; an MA nein upon external fan. EY ee ae ey yy OY. 49 Conroe ey | 6 |e ‘ae oly depe ding on [eat tiene peinploxevale Yer viet =! tohrot-at eté er Ma(3) 2 pense toe tele Eee aet pte. 3 ene cxo tly eee Be model only difference un intlead of previous dola hee extemal foctors are Jotuated: MAL: il iv combinahon of ¢rhand M& mode ye AemA C1. 1) a eR (Yer F maci) | Po fremp (cp, 4) = #@(p) t mac 4) 4 Baye Ale ae be Bodie Ce iF 8) et-1 72 Arak ail be AR (1) Me ieee py ken) ft Oe et E_. Se ee Cat eer PemoroMidpdlpowiblepar woke e671 3c mm ‘ - LW ARIMA dounf Cate about dela stan paany T > Not. lk na bulicxtenston of Rema 1M A ae ‘ ive eg tole proving avcte qe ; f cformed dolo fom oxigi nal dota follows ARmA a original dela will mut foljod ARIMm iat fs Yoo Ya ty secee * EK ; db Hrenvfared doty + r . Zo aw Lourie eee a eS i ZL we ayes i ie z PemeemocieraiteD FYAIMA,pate: // | \ > SS — enopeics ———— for ey. sy anf polance o| Gory meoth = Io fP aes get NGS Vy Bh nina 9 ny (today) : hes moni i addes) tw ery manfntl die ane) i ee ee ER) Tae bs i : Zy he Ly Zs Zt a fallseeoee ey Ny \ thi puoly l astucled dala Ln Jy Ve | if his food Pema the pare Bree yee ase of dele will follow AEA #emA how two Companeed Ce 4) whoeagy? AeT MA hos dee Dorseatizl (pgs dyNo = aaa ckepeeds on stefienqy past Stohio pari Extenal fecker chohionen —_facken ae Noneed since bom ipeime : tronforming -the dota. | £ oh, < 3 ees iad Forecasting , dela Bore ae Pmoail Qored | — Meise) | | s are ARMA) ARIMA — Drable Hale wirly, I t a ele buts f tihen we Qt nok sure - a No_ 4 trend & | dive cHy qs fox RRMA gre i q v 5 me ae henever wwedonk rectal We ich eee Pea a aigin : ———— Loe eee =a juoce Ercor Mare Score. i» Meon squad @rror. Adual Predichon Ne ve aed Na+ 4 - neers Sate E | an u P : BGEE Ges Ye ya tare ieee.) f 1 MAPE Score. (Mean Abcolule Pecerdage ee) lel Compare 2 scenon'of__ EMSE Gnd MPPE Consf : Classittcation, Algarithen Pade igh's Re Btuion 2) SVM ; kun. | Deciton Tree 5) Random forest fearon! Pi an Sigmerd chon S08 r va oe = = Pht otk ee bobilihy thot (y=1) ae toys toy Pls: obobility of y being 1 | feo rule for givin Volue of x } ! ; (if witt be in thor me; Numba of feoture inthe / -a5 ae compl a tlobanihip 12 dln oe do owtlien ~ 4) Need to loge dafosets ae Moth Behind (oquibe Regression : a =e ° g q F LY. ° o i ! \ Assume “Ze sx t lo ne | . War On Ke ean Bez 514) teZz value t's lor, ny ye © y Ces Set Tr per = Dee 1c funchion A cost function for_logishic Regression ; 4 g ncion Lure BG, aw f Seach ice feqression ~ a” a fi =Yp« al) — and thy funchon we wit get many ) minima head 2} qething alebal minim 3 I : alt r f wa i 4 AlW: fat = _ ae = ie (Y) 2 (Gl. bal rm inion) () Cross cebopy locs furchion (ox) log ore vi { BY) ==(4leg9 + (1-¥) toq(1-F)) —y omit 7 ae bobilty wuld be Uenbinuou)——— uh iy: 7 es -l tog ¥ +0171) ‘og (I- -¥))- Ja me) ee eee i A iceeas alway ee joe es lows hee voli ee cree yshould b be ver large Chom 0 to 1) if th tr | the = ogy with be ver 4 large oo an ee small pumbe, carat 1 Ba ae 4e8 ee Vat eee ere 2 = pclealils -y) Bu «sce Ae oe ppt he see tmall_dg area atl 1=¥) w)) Jorge dita leq (t= y ) will be large maak tas. CEO Lc mal), number fon To YanviEe Safest ese (5 notning abe Mneon overage of [ose a “| Loss Function (1) anit cnn cu _stinale are set ay Compored 4p cost funch'on (x) whieh deols a a ‘penalty ox nurhes of reining | max ( 2 -} such Abel wu) ae i wtx, +b g + wr th >» emake etfs seme —____— —— mar Linsheod of stag fe woe com_el oi r — min (Ee) eR =e 7 = a : ae ae ae = (we encode fo oar | ¢ = Numbe: of_exar Jom @rror fo avoid ~~ oar rae Aae.g attuch £ i reo aark OTT he gid andqrain ond will bed fy fest Joka) kernels! in SVM: Generally funchon of the Kernel is +o tronsform the training ot of dota 50 thot non-linear olecrston surface con_he transform, doo hincas equation tn higher numba of climension Space ik return the tag product heboeen two Cl in stand ord feoture dimension | Pijpebalevoen Keine” 2), polynomial, Rodial Bans funcion (obf) sigmoid : LinearOM ee ee Oe eee pari CCU Gg oll Oubs Ug tied il Que aial Let you fry to plot on thin 1D Cine. f =e. —-- #—@—e— 60 © 619 «6 9 1 we can dee None of Hoe [ene Lowld cperale the fina class pufectty.. Jn “s hy weodd another teelure which 'e funch’on of >¢ fee aie | Ke amt Oe oo ny - yf sjantt| eee | weal | : + 4 bf hae ¢ ae ey : aa | Now tres ley - re | i ml | Spuable ~ i \ ‘ee fla, — faa = i fe e7 . | b5| 2) rachiad baric fundion, (nbf keraed) eat K (uis%.) 2 exp Copter = xa IE) eon | A). Sigmoid function c E a - Rou anion eee | 1 . : || 7 Se 6° 6 a co a s. © iY Se’ ; Cm e & 6 - oe coe 8 6 je ° @ Rod Morgiing. Soft Morgsne —fHte Medel is giving 1 pete J ft | too accuracy f function J for svn clossifien "Hinge lore! used on loss | function iki one of the tyne of |oct-funch'on Mainly used Maximum margine (louthrat'on niode| ane dss Lerot jor of es a margin br distance from | mien i orginc hom dlectiteg eau _penalhy tb th, a | Dovmdary ix nuh |orrgt enough _4 Le mane (ov -% (wT x +6]) O- for correch classi reohin | — tr wrong classifica y a "imei Mee peel ani ie ct= (=) Le Gi- © C1) os bt | pee Say = q both are hea loss vole } Now fal For correct daitftcot'on Yiel ee Vast Pes Co- (tO) (b-(-t) CU) cal ol Si Fz et aol volus Up! Se| KN IN = K-Neorert Natghbor me bbrevahion kw tonds far _"' = Re ls ten Lif ts iunpenarecl machine learni , | Bee leg aoa 0s well as _regraitan pve b ea | lever. textias yo l the mimbes ofecara! sctgbhor do anu vaknowa } = i Hy fo. binary clas wifchcn tame paceiple for muthiela- wuihcokion problem | shin quactal ik isodd pumbey | fundersbome with some eaxicomale | a A : ¥ ° Ey Now we hove-fo ind nud i m : o @ , . added &) | + o 6 o ie otscl: ckomce | enre oo) tun 3-1) Now bosd on ; A De Bee Sse se the to pak raiae bm sorbed 4 __ a re SM) <7 Sener fda taka! 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